华福证券 房地产 支持地产税收政策正式落地 投资要点： 事件： 11 月 13 日，财政部、税务总局、住房城乡建设部发布《关于促进 房地产市场平稳健康发展有关税收政策的公告》，明确支持房地产市场 发展的税收优惠政策，主要涉及契税、增值税、土地增值税 3 大税种。 加大住房交易环节契税征收优惠力度 契税为居民端购买新房或二手房时缴纳的税种。本次新政中契税 缴纳的面积划分节点有所提升。新政前，90 平及以下契税 1%；90 平 以上 1.5%（首套）/2%（二套）。新政后，140 平及以下契税 1%，140 平以上 1.5%（首套）/2%（二套），一线城市不再区别对待。 我们认为，契税征收优化有利于降低购房者新房与二手房置业成 本，且将推进一线城市、改善型住房需求。 明确与取消普宅标准相衔接的增值税、土地增值税优惠 增值税为居民端售卖二手房时缴纳的税种。新政前，北/上/广/深 购买满 2 年的普通住宅出售免征增值税，购买满 2 年的非普通住 宅按照买卖差额征收 5%的增值税。新政后，在取消普通住宅和非 普通住宅标准的一线城市（目前仅北京取消普宅标准，深、沪为 放宽普宅划分），出售购买满 2 年的非普通住宅免征增值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.785 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 23.55%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 803 million yuan, down 40.70% year-on-year [1][2]. - The medical device segment achieved a revenue of 2.563 billion yuan, a decline of 10.48% year-on-year, while the cardiovascular intervention business saw a revenue increase of 16.10% [2]. - The company is expected to see a turnaround as the impact of channel adjustments in the pharmaceutical segment is nearing its end, with new formulations set to launch [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.402 billion yuan, down 28.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 73.12% year-on-year [1]. - The medical services and health management segment generated a revenue of 746 million yuan, a decrease of 23.87% year-on-year, with the Hefei Cardiovascular Hospital contributing 120 million yuan, up 15.25% year-on-year [2]. - The company anticipates a revenue CAGR of 3.1% from 2023 to 2026, with a net profit CAGR of 13.3% during the same period [3][4]. Product Development and Pipeline - The company has received approvals for key products, including the ThorCrack® peripheral vascular shockwave balloon and the NeoGlu®01 non-invasive blood glucose meter, which are expected to enhance its product line and market reach [3]. - The TAVR device is anticipated to receive approval in Q4 2024, which could further drive revenue growth in innovative devices [3]. - The company is progressing well with its drug pipeline, with candidates MWN 101, MWN 105, and MWN 109 expected to advance in clinical trials [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [4][8]. Core Views - The company has shown promising sales performance for its IL-17 monoclonal antibody, with revenue of 12.49 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a significant step in its commercialization efforts [1][2]. - The market for psoriasis drugs in China is projected to grow from 600 million USD in 2018 to 1.44 billion USD in 2022, with expectations to reach 9.94 billion USD by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 25% from 2025 to 2030 [2]. - The company is expected to leverage its first-mover advantage in the market, with a steady commercialization process that could rapidly unlock market potential [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.49 million yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 546 million yuan, a year-on-year narrowing of 3.85% [1]. - The sales expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 69.21 million yuan, significantly up from 10.43 million yuan for the entire year of 2023, indicating increased investment in commercialization [2]. - R&D expenses remained high at 438 million yuan, reflecting ongoing investment in product pipeline development [2]. Product Pipeline and Development - The company’s key product, the IL-17 monoclonal antibody, has been approved for psoriasis treatment, with additional indications for axial spondyloarthritis moving into the NDA stage [3]. - Other pipeline developments include GR1802 for pediatric atopic dermatitis and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps entering Phase III trials, and GR1803 for multiple myeloma entering Phase II trials [3]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 70 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 1.16 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5876%, 461%, and 186% [3][6]. - The net profit loss is expected to narrow significantly as new products are launched and gain market traction [3].

华福证券 行业研 交通运输 2024 年 11 月 12 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 陈照林(S0210522050006) CZL3792@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 乐璨(S0210524070004) lc30018@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 张瑜玲(S0210123020028) ZYL30019@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、行业周报(10.28-11.3): 24 冬春航季启幕，国际 航司时刻增长显著——2024.11.05 2、2024 年 9 月快递行业数据点评行业 9 月行业 件量增速同比提升，期待旺季需求进一步增长— —2024.11.05 3、行业周报(10.21-10.27): 外贸集运船东减班提 价，欧美航线运价企稳回升——2024.10.28 交通运输 行业周报(11.4-11.10): 内需预期向好，选择结 构性改善品种 投资要点： 航运板块：本周原油轮市场运价延续下滑趋势，成品油轮市场大西洋稳步上升， 干散货运市场海岬型船环比改善，外贸集运欧美线运价走势分化，内贸市场华南运价 小幅回调。1）原油轮市场，本周 VLC ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company has undergone a significant brand transformation and strategic focus on its core down jacket business, leading to substantial revenue and profit growth [10][15]. - The down jacket market in China has shown robust growth, with the company positioned to capture high-end market demand through product innovation and brand enhancement [15][24]. - The company has implemented a unique supply chain model that reduces inventory risk and enhances operational efficiency [43]. Summary by Sections Historical Review: The Rise and Renewal of the Company - The company, primarily engaged in down jacket production, has evolved through three main phases since its listing in 2007: diversification (2007-2013), product and channel adjustments (2014-2017), and a focus on its core business (2018-present) [10][11]. Multi-Dimensional Exploration of Brand Renewal - The company achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% in revenue and 41% in profit during its first three-year strategic transformation [15]. - The brand has focused on product diversification, channel optimization, and a refined supply chain to enhance operational efficiency [15][43]. Future Growth Drivers for the Brand - The down jacket market in China grew from 69.3 billion yuan in 2014 to 146.1 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 11.2% [15]. - The company is expanding into outdoor apparel and functional clothing, launching popular products like ski jackets and sun protection clothing [15][24]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan by 2025, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 11, and 10 for FY2025-2027, compared to the average of comparable companies [2][15].

华福证券 证券研究报告|行业深度 轻工制造 行业评级强于大市（维持评级） 2024年11月12日 | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 家居行业： 换新时刻，关注需求格局估值共振 证券分析师： | | | 李宏鹏 执业证书编号： S0210524050017 李含稚 执业证书编号： S0210524060005 | 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 ➢ 需求改善：行业首迎资金补贴，覆盖面&支持力度扩大，保守测算需求拉动幅度约12%。①Q3以来，全国家居家装补贴工作持续推进，从公布 细则看，各地优惠力度多为15%~20%、单品补贴上限多为2000元。②10月中下旬，部分地区政策加码、开通线上辐射全国，上市公司亦顺势推 出"政企双补"营销合力迅速落地。③发改委10月30日表示，目前正在加力落实一揽子增量政策，同时抓紧研究提出明年继续支持"两新"工作 的总体安排、实施方式和支持标准，为进一步提振消费、扩大投资、促 ...

农林牧渔 2024 年 11 月 11 日 行 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 华福证券 农林牧渔 10 月三方能繁继续微增，周期景气有望延长 投资要点： ➢ 生猪养殖：10 月三方能繁继续微增，周期景气有望延长。1）散户二育 出栏积极，猪价偏弱运行。月初集团企业维持正常出栏节奏，散户二育出 栏积极性提升，猪价偏弱运行。11 月 10 日猪价 16.76 元/kg，周环比-0.46 元/kg。10 月 21-30 日二育销量占比为 1.92%，较前十日减少 2.45pct；截至 10 月 30 日，17 个省份育肥栏舍利用率均值 55.47%，较前十日提高 0.65pct。 近期各省二次育肥补栏状态仍较弱，行情偏弱状态下，二育出栏积极性有 所增强，整体出栏多于补栏，短期内栏舍利用率预计呈下降趋势。2）关注 后续消费需求回升节奏。随多地气温下降，对终端消费形成较强底部支撑， 但仍未至季节性消费明显增量阶段。11 月 2-8 日屠企日均宰量 15.36 万头， 周环比+0.37%。腌腊多集中于每年的 11 月下旬至 12 月中旬，关注腌腊及 冬至备货消费增量。3）大猪出栏占比增长，均重小幅回升。11 月 1- ...

华福证券 煤炭 2024 年 11 月 11 日 煤炭 政策加持下焦煤配置价值逐步显现 投资要点： 动力煤 截至 2024 年 11 月 8 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 847 元/吨， 周环比下跌 1 元/吨，周跌幅 0.1%。陕蒙产地价格上涨，晋陕蒙三省煤 矿开工率为 83.5%，环比-0.3pct。需求方面，当前电厂日耗出现季节性 下滑，随着北方天气转冷，供暖逐步开启，动力煤产地价格率先上涨 有望带动港口价格反弹；非电方面，甲醇与尿素开工率均处于历史同 期偏高水平，截至 11 月 7 日，甲醇开工率为 90.3%，周环比+0.6pct； 截至 11 月 6 日，尿素开工率为 83.2%，周环比-1.2pct。 焦煤 截至 11 月 8 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1640 元/吨，环比下跌 100 元/吨，产地价格表现相对平稳。当前正逐步进入开工淡季，需求存在 回落可能性，但宏观政策出现明显改善，财政政策加码，焦煤价格无 需悲观。本周焦炭价格下跌、螺纹钢价格小涨，截至 11 月 8 日，山西 临汾一级冶金焦出厂价 1800 元/吨，环比-50 元/吨（-2.7%），螺纹钢 现货价格 3530 元， ...

华福证券 基本数据 日期 2024-11-08 收盘价： 14.26 元 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 1,026.96/1,026.96 流通 A 股市值(百万元) 14,644.38 每股净资产(元) 7.85 资产负债率(%) 51.65 一年内最高/最低价(元) 17.36/11.71 财务数据和估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 31,392 36,279 42,371 49,661 55,657 增长率（%） 0% 16% 17% 17% 12% 净利润（百万元） 649 746 829 1,002 1,152 增长率（%） 339% 15% 11% 21% 15% EPS（元/股） 0.63 0.73 0.81 0.98 1.12 市盈率（P/E） 22.6 19.6 17.7 14.6 12.7 市净率（P/B） 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 数据来源：公司公告、华福证券研究所 德邦股份（603056.SH） 24Q3 归母 1.8 亿元，静待需求修复 投资要点： 事件：德邦股份公布 2024 年 Q3 业绩，公司实现营 业收入 98. ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 行 业 研 究 日 行 业 定 期 研 究 有色金属行业周报（11.4-11.10） 特朗普赢得美国大选，美联储 11 月谨慎降息 25BP 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属：特朗普赢得美国总统大选，美联储11月如期降息25BP。 特朗普赢得美国大选，市场担心特朗普提议的关税和移民可能会重新 引发通胀，金价出现明显回调。美联储11月利率决议采取了谨慎行 动，将利率下调了0.25个基点。从全球范围内来看，全球多个经济体 最新数据表明，CPI数值已经低于其央行设定的2%通胀目标，货币宽松 的大趋势正在来临。我们认为，短期，9、11月美联储连续降息2次不 是利好兑现的终点，随着降息次数增加，仅是利好的开端。同时，全 球政治不确定性，金价上涨远未结束；中长期，美联储降息空间仍 在、央行及政治经济不确定性带来的避险需求推动持续上涨，白银因 投资属性更强弹性更大。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、紫金矿业、 山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注 银泰黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、银泰黄 金、盛达资源。 ➢ 工业金属：宏观扰动加剧 ...