华福证券 公 司 研 究 晨光股份（603899.SH） 全年稳健收官，文创龙头变革前行 投资要点： 公 事件：公司发布 2024 年报。全年实现营收 242.28 亿元同比+3.8%，归 母净利润 13.96 亿元同比-8.6%，扣除股份支付后归母净利润 14.7 亿元同比 -2.81%。单 Q4 实现营收 71 亿元同比-5%，归母净利润 3.7 亿元同比-13.5%。 全年拟分红比例为 65.61%。 司 财 报 点 评 传统核心强化内功，新业务稳步发展。分业务：①传统核心：全年营 收 93 亿元同比+2%，其中晨光科技 11.4 亿元同比+33%。公司坚持多渠道 发展，坚持从批发商向零售服务商转型赋能终端经营质量提升，开拓办公 及精品直供创造增量。②科力普：全年实现营收 138 亿元同比+3.9%，产品 端着力拓展营销礼品及 MRO 工业品供应链的开发，客户端存量客户深耕 与增量客户拓展并进，业绩保持稳健增长。③零售大店：实现营收 14.8 亿 元同比+10.8%，其中九木杂物社营收 14.06 亿元同比+13%，零售大店 779 家，九木杂物社 741 家，零售大店年内净开店 120 家。分产品：书 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [6][17]. Core Viewpoints - The company's 2024 revenue was reported at 7.47 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.8%, with drug sales revenue at 8.62 billion RMB, down 9%. The annual profit was 1.61 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 32.3%, but the performance met expectations [1]. - The company has seen its non-national procurement exclusive varieties and innovative products account for over 50% of its revenue, indicating a positive shift towards innovation [2]. - The impact of centralized procurement on three key products resulted in a revenue of 2.69 billion RMB, down 28.8% year-on-year. However, revenue from non-national procurement exclusive and innovative products reached 4.55 billion RMB, up 4.1%, making up 52.8% of total revenue, suggesting that the short-term impact of centralized procurement has largely cleared [3]. - The company is entering a harvest phase for its innovative business, with a significant product, Luracitinib, expected to be launched by 2025. In 2024, one innovative product was successfully launched, and another received approval for a new indication, indicating progress in its pipeline [4]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company’s financial projections for 2025-2027 estimate net profits of 1.63 billion RMB, 2.04 billion RMB, and 2.46 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 1%, 25%, and 21% respectively. This reflects an adjustment from previous forecasts [4]. - The main revenue figures are as follows: 2023A at 8.01 billion RMB, 2024A at 7.47 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of -12%, -7%, and positive growth in subsequent years [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.67 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.2, indicating a stable valuation outlook [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.918 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.490 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.12% [2][3]. - The net profit, excluding investment income from joint ventures, showed a significant increase of 42.02%, reaching 1.416 billion yuan [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.70 yuan per 10 shares, with an expected payout of 920 million yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.74% [3]. Financial Performance - The company's high-end product revenue reached approximately 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for about 22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [4]. - The overall sales gross margin improved by 1.45 percentage points to 27.63%, while the net profit margin decreased by 3.49 percentage points to 13.92% due to a lack of investment income from joint ventures [4]. - The company’s alloy business generated revenue of 1.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 109 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.741 billion yuan, 1.935 billion yuan, and 2.149 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.2, 12.8, and 11.5 [5][6].

Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 3 月 25 日 【华福固收】修复期的信用债投资思路 ➢ 修复期的信用债投资思路： 前期在资金面收敛环境下短端调整幅度大，一年期银行二永债点位所处分位点相对高， 如一年期银行二级债AAA-目前点位为2%，历史分位点为11.8%，高于同期限城投和产业 债；3年期城投债AA+目前点位所处历史分位数为10.8%，一年期产业债AAA目前点位所处 历史分位数为10.3%。 短端方面，目前性价比相对高且买盘多，建议关注票息资产的配置价值。可结合负债端 稳定性选择，负债端稳定高的机构可选择部分优质主体逢高配置3年期以上品种博取票 息受益，如城投债、产投债、央国企产业债及地产债、二永债。而负债端稳定性偏弱的 机构可优先关注中短端低等级品种，如3年以内云贵、陕西省级国企债、3年以内天津、 太原、潍坊市级、青岛市级、昆明市级平台债，以及3年以内央企地产债、钢企债。 另一方面，预计资金面保持稳定的概率较大，后续需关注3月信贷以及政府债发行情况， 可等待时机选择3至5年期信用债。 ➢ 城投债观点 "两会"之后，国家指导地方政府务实发展本地特色产业 "两会 ...

Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% as of March 20, 2025, aligning with market expectations[2] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to 1.7% from the previous 2.1%[2] - The probability of maintaining the interest rate at 425-450bp in May increased from 71.8% to 85.7% as of March 23, 2025[2] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, the S&P 500 saw a rebound, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.41% on the day of the announcement[15] - Chinese assets experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indices falling by 1.60% and 1.13%, respectively[15] - Gold prices increased by 1.20%, while Brent crude oil rose by 2.24% amid ongoing market instability[17] Inflation and Tariff Implications - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with the inflation outlook for 2026 remaining unchanged[13] - The probability of a 25bp rate cut in June is estimated at 67.3%, contingent on the White House's stance on tariffs and upcoming economic data[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include market volatility exceeding expectations, marginal policy changes, and statistical errors[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [4] Core Insights - The era of "Universal Intelligent Driving" is accelerating, with LiDAR entering a rapid growth phase due to the widespread adoption of intelligent driving technologies [14][19] - LiDAR is becoming a standard feature in vehicles priced between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, significantly expanding its market potential [19][17] - The demand for LiDAR is driven by the dual acceleration of L3 autonomous driving deployment and the downward penetration of LiDAR configurations into lower-tier intelligent driving systems [25][26] Summary by Sections 1. Universal Intelligent Driving Era - The launch of intelligent driving plans by major manufacturers like BYD and Changan indicates a shift towards universal intelligent driving, with LiDAR as a core technology [14][17] - The average number of LiDAR units per vehicle is expected to increase significantly as L3 autonomous driving becomes more prevalent [28][25] 2. High Barriers and Irreplaceability of LiDAR - LiDAR's high-resolution perception and holographic data capture capabilities make it irreplaceable in complex scenarios [32][33] - The core barriers to entry in the LiDAR market include hardware design, mass production capabilities, and automotive-grade verification [40][47] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading LiDAR manufacturers such as Hesai Technology and Suteng Jun Chuang, which have established strong market positions and technological advantages [80][3] - Other recommended areas include core hardware related to intelligent driving, such as vehicle-mounted cameras and various semiconductor components [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The adjusted net profit for the company exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, with a significant improvement in core OTA profitability [2][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.24 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.6% [3]. - The core OTA business showed a notable increase in operating profit margin, rising by 6.8 percentage points to 28.4% [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The transportation business generated 1.72 billion yuan in revenue, growing 17.0% year-on-year, with international ticket market share expanding significantly, showing over 130% growth in annual business volume [5]. - Accommodation revenue reached 1.14 billion yuan, up 28.6% year-on-year, with international hotel business maintaining industry-leading growth, also showing over 110% growth in annual business volume [5]. - Other business segments contributed 600 million yuan in revenue, growing 14.8%, with the Yilong hotel technology platform expanding to nearly 2,300 hotels [5]. - The vacation business generated 780 million yuan, driven by product and service value, supporting over 1,000 travel agency stores [5]. User Metrics - The company achieved a record high average monthly paying user base of 43.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with an annual paying user base of 240 million, up 1.5%, and total service users reaching 1.93 billion, up 9.3% year-on-year [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading OTA in the lower-tier market, benefiting from Tencent and Ctrip's traffic and inventory resources, with competitive advantages in domestic business and active international market expansion expected to drive long-term revenue and performance growth [7]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are raised to 3.4 billion, 4.0 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [7].

Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate remains unchanged at 4.25-4.50% as of March 20, 2025, aligning with market expectations[2] - The probability of maintaining the interest rate in May increased from 71.8% to 85.7% following Powell's comments on inflation and tariffs[2] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to 1.7% from 2.1%[2] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets saw a rebound, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.41% on the day of Powell's remarks, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indices fell by 1.60% and 1.13%, respectively[11] - Gold prices increased by 1.20% amid market instability, while Brent crude oil rose by 2.24%[14] Inflation and Tariff Implications - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with the inflation outlook for 2026 remaining unchanged[12] - The likelihood of a rate cut in June is estimated at 67.3% if the White House moderates its tariff stance and economic data supports a recession[3] Risks and Considerations - Market risks may exceed expectations, and policy changes could introduce additional uncertainties[4] - Statistical errors may arise due to data availability and transparency issues, potentially affecting analysis outcomes[4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has been a leader in the welded pipe industry for over 20 years, maintaining the highest production and sales volume in China for 18 consecutive years [3][16]. - The steel industry is undergoing supply-side structural reforms, which are expected to improve the supply-demand relationship and lead to a recovery in profits for steel companies [4][50]. - The company has implemented two stock incentive plans since its listing in 2020, effectively binding key talents to the company's long-term goals, and has a high dividend payout ratio, providing a safety margin for investors [4][5]. Company Overview - The company was founded in 2000 and has grown to become the largest welded pipe manufacturer in China, with a diversified product matrix including hot-dip galvanized pipes, spiral pipes, and rectangular pipes [3][16]. - The company achieved total sales revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan for the first time in 2006, with production capacity reaching over 20 million tons by 2022 [3][16]. - The company has a strong market position with a market share of over 20% in the welded pipe sector [4]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenues of 60.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.56% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 91.86% to 570 million yuan [22]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 40.07 billion yuan, down 13.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, down 77.07% [3][22]. - The company has a clear dividend policy, with a minimum cash dividend ratio of no less than 20% planned for 2024-2026 [4]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry is expected to see a decline in crude steel production in 2024, reflecting the government's commitment to controlling production and eliminating excess capacity [4][50]. - The demand for steel is anticipated to stabilize as the economy recovers, with infrastructure projects and manufacturing sectors contributing to growth [4][70]. - The global steel demand is projected to rebound by 1.2% in 2025, which is favorable for China's steel exports [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $269 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $12 million, up 60.9% [2][4]. - The number of cases handled reached 359,400, marking a significant increase of 46.7% [2][4]. - The international expansion strategy is proving effective, with overseas case numbers soaring by 326.4% to 140,700, accounting for 39.1% of total cases, and overseas revenue increasing by 290.4% to $8.1 million, representing 30% of total revenue [4][5]. Financial Performance - The domestic market showed stable growth, with 218,700 cases (+3.2%) and revenue of $188 million (-0.4%), while the adjusted net profit remained stable at $37 million (+0.1%) [5]. - The overall gross margin improved to 62.6%, with a net margin of 3.7% and an adjusted net margin of 10.0% [6]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth projections for 2025-2027 at RMB 2.35 billion, RMB 2.72 billion, and RMB 3.22 billion respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 151 million, RMB 282 million, and RMB 385 million [6][7].