证券研究报告|专题研究 25年05月05日 华福证券 AI浪潮中，谁将盈利突围？ 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外降息节奏不及预 期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 "宏观叙事→股价驱动→财务筛选"方法论：我们认为，技术革命中主要受益的是三类"风口"公司 。对应股价，第一波行情驱动是估值，走出第二波行情多需要盈利验证。财务视角下，我们寻找到3 个领先盈利的信号。最终，希望筛选出：AI浪潮中，或将率先盈利、走出第二波行情的核心标的。 宏观叙事中，技术革命中3类"风口"上的公司或受益腾飞：1）上游"卖铲子"，2）技术新需求， 3）赋能全行业。而且，我们可以通过普及率、渗透率，观察产业的整体进展。 公司股价中，行情驱动或从估值转向盈利。第一波行情的股价多由估值驱动，而股价走出第二波行情 ，就需要得到公司业绩的验证。2次技术革命、3类"风口"公司，都验证了这一股价驱动因素的转变 。映射当下，多数AI公司或已上涨"估 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [19]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its operations, achieving stable growth in its three-piece can business and improved performance in its two-piece can segment. The acquisition of COFCO has significantly enhanced the company's scale and profitability [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and an improved industry landscape, with a forecasted increase in net profit for 2025-2027 [6][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.673 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.23% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 791 million yuan, an increase of 2.06% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue surged to 5.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.96%, with net profit reaching 665 million yuan, up 137.91% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 16.3% and 5.7%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year. However, Q1 2025 saw a decline in gross profit margin to 13.6% due to seasonal demand fluctuations and raw material price volatility [6][3]. Acquisition Impact - The successful acquisition of COFCO Packaging has led to a significant increase in total assets, reaching 30.137 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, a growth of 66.56% from the beginning of the period. The acquisition also contributed 461 million yuan in investment income [5][6]. - The acquisition has resulted in a rise in expenses during Q1 2025, primarily due to increased financial costs associated with the merger and acquisition activities [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.20 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders, totaling approximately 307 million yuan, which represents 46.17% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][22]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 707.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a growth of 0.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion yuan, down by 13.6% [2][4]. - The commercial segment showed steady growth with a revenue of 649 billion yuan, up by 2.6%, and a net profit of 8.3 billion yuan, up by 0.2%. Notably, the innovative drug business achieved a revenue of 125 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 23.2% [3][4]. - The industrial segment faced pressure with a revenue of 58.9 billion yuan, down by 15.3%, and a net profit of 5.32 billion yuan, down by 21.1%. However, multiple innovative drug research pipelines are progressing steadily [5]. - The company's gross margin was 10.25%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points, and the net margin was 2.32%, down by 0.34 percentage points [6]. Financial Analysis - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 2891 billion yuan, 3057 billion yuan, and 3250 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 47.8 billion yuan, 53.7 billion yuan, and 60.8 billion yuan [7]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 14, 12, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]. Summary of Financial Data - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 260,295 million yuan, with a growth rate of 12%. The net profit is expected to be 3,768 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 33% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.29 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 13.9 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9]. Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth of 0.35% in 2024, achieving a total revenue of 4.03 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.6% to 429 million yuan. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.093 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.7% increase, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, down 4% [4][9]. - The establishment of an employee stock ownership plan is expected to enhance talent attraction and employee cohesion [8]. Business Segments - The refractive and optical business segments showed steady growth, with refractive business revenue reaching 1.296 billion yuan (+7.44%) and an operating margin of 52.05% (-2.45 percentage points). The optical business generated 1.069 billion yuan (+5.15%) with a margin of 45.57% (-4.49 percentage points). However, the cataract business saw a revenue decline of 11.56% to 873 million yuan, with a margin of 35.16% (-8.53 percentage points). The posterior segment generated 536 million yuan (+9.21%) with a margin of 39.64% (-4.99 percentage points) [5][6]. Financial Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 44.2% (down 4.84 percentage points) and a net profit margin of 10.64% (down 5.95 percentage points). For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 44.97% (down 4 percentage points) and the net profit margin was 13.7% (down 2.25 percentage points). The company effectively controlled its expense ratios, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 12.5%, 11.2%, and 1% respectively [7][9]. - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 predicts net profits of 521 million yuan, 610 million yuan, and 705 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30X, 26X, and 22X [9][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The solid waste treatment sector shows a clear trend in dividends, with improving cash flow and profitability. The combination of "incineration + IDC" is expected to open a second growth curve. Water and wastewater treatment are seeing initial cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with attention on water price increases across various regions. The environmental equipment sector is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [1][4][6] Summary by Sections Environmental Equipment - In Q1 2025, among 28 companies in the environmental equipment sector, 10 achieved year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, while 3 turned losses into profits. In 2024, 8 companies saw a year-on-year increase in net profit, with 1 company turning profitable. The sales of sanitation vehicles reached 15,483 units, marking a 3.5% year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery trend [3][6] Solid Waste Treatment - The solid waste treatment sector reported a revenue of 1,493.72 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 131.08 billion yuan, up 31.73%. In Q1 2025, the sector achieved a revenue of 353.81 billion yuan, a 30.99% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 39.41 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.41% year-on-year growth [32][39][41] Water and Wastewater Treatment - In 2024, among 52 companies in the water and wastewater treatment sector, 17 achieved year-on-year growth in net profit, while 2 turned losses into profits. In Q1 2025, 23 companies reported year-on-year growth in net profit, with 4 turning profitable. The sector is experiencing initial improvements in cost reduction and efficiency [4][63]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [51]. Core Insights - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3504.57 points, up 1.44% week-on-week, with notable increases in semiconductor materials and carbon fiber indices [3][11]. - Domestic manufacturing upgrades are expected to drive demand for high-standard and high-performance materials, leading to rapid development in the new materials industry [4]. - Key companies such as Tongcheng New Materials and Huate Gas are highlighted for their significant progress in import substitution and integrated industrial chain development [4]. Market Overview - The semiconductor materials index rose to 5944.57 points, up 1.41%, while the carbon fiber index increased by 5.65% to 1239.4 points [3][11]. - The top gainers for the week included Runyang Technology (19.07%) and Akole (10.75%), while the biggest losers were Changyang Technology (-5.83%) and Ruile New Materials (-4.82%) [25][26]. Recent Industry Highlights - Tianqi Materials has made advancements in PEEK material production, with small batch orders already in supply, indicating a strong potential for domestic substitution in the chemical sector [4][29]. - Zhongke Goneng announced a breakthrough in sulfide all-solid-state batteries, enhancing the mechanical stability of solid electrolyte films, which is expected to accelerate the industrialization of solid-state batteries [4][29]. - Invista has decided to retain its nylon fiber business, focusing on the nylon 66 value chain, which positions it strongly in the market [29][30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a robust growth in patient visits, achieving 1.21 million visits in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, which aligns with expectations [3] - The company continues to expand its store network, with the opening of its first branch in the Southwest region, the Chengdu Dayuan branch, and has established over 80 branches across more than 20 cities in China and Singapore [4][5] - The company is actively investing in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) AI, planning to launch smart hardware and AI doctor assistants to enhance diagnostic capabilities and improve service efficiency, which is expected to increase customer retention and revenue per customer [6] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The TCM healthcare service industry is experiencing strong demand and is expected to enter a high growth phase supported by favorable policies. The company, as a leading chain in TCM healthcare services, has excellent cross-regional operational capabilities and significant long-term growth potential. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.81 billion, 4.84 billion, and 6.09 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 428 million, 569 million, and 742 million RMB for the same period. The "Buy" rating is maintained [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [34]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has returned to positive territory, with a 1.3% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, marking a 2.9 percentage point improvement from the full year of 2024 [3]. - Profit growth for Q1 2025 is at 1.02%, which is a decline compared to the full year of 2024, primarily due to increased provisioning efforts aimed at solidifying asset quality [3]. - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.33% at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 3 basis points from the beginning of the year, the largest improvement among peer banks [4]. - The bank's loan growth remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 7.59% as of Q1 2025, the highest among comparable peers [5]. - The net interest margin (NIM) shows signs of stabilization, with a slight decrease of 4 basis points compared to the full year of 2024, indicating an improvement in the bank's asset-liability structure [6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue growth is 1.3%, with a profit growth rate of 1.02%, reflecting a strong performance relative to peers [3][11]. - The bank's net interest income increased by 0.48% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a notable improvement in the growth rate compared to 2024 [3]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio improved to 1.33%, and the coverage ratio increased to 187%, indicating enhanced risk mitigation capabilities [4][6]. Loan Growth and Credit Strategy - The bank's loan portfolio grew by over 250 billion yuan year-on-year, with a focus on five key sectors, enhancing its credit deployment capabilities [5]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth is projected at 3.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 11.2%, 5.3%, and 6.6% for the same years [7][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [29]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit growth rates have declined compared to 2024, with Q1 2025 showing revenue and net profit growth rates of -3.1% and -2.1%, respectively [3][8]. - The net interest income has turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9% in Q1 2025, benefiting from a narrowing decline in net interest margin [4]. - Wealth management fees have seen a double-digit growth of 10.5%, significantly narrowing the decline in total commission income [6]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% as of Q1 2025, showing slight improvement [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit growth rates are -3.1% and -2.1%, respectively, down 2.6 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points from 2024 [3]. - Non-interest income decreased by 22.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to rising interest rates affecting bond and fund investments [3]. Interest Income - Net interest income grew by 1.9% in Q1 2025, reversing the previous negative trend, attributed to a smaller decline in net interest margin, which was 1.91% [4]. - The yield on assets decreased by 44 basis points to 3.21%, while the cost of liabilities fell by 36 basis points to 1.39% [4]. Loan Growth - Total loans decreased by approximately 469 billion yuan year-on-year in Q1 2025, with retail loans down by about 479 billion yuan [5]. - The decline in retail loans reflects weak consumer credit demand, although mortgage loans increased by 288 billion yuan [5]. Wealth Management - Commission income from wealth management increased by 10.5%, contributing to a significant reduction in the overall decline of commission income, which was -2.5% [6]. Asset Quality - As of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio improved to 0.94%, while the focus rate increased to 1.36% [7]. - The new non-performing loans generated in Q1 2025 amounted to 166.52 billion yuan, with retail loans showing an increase in non-performing loans [7]. Profit Forecast - Revenue growth is projected at 0.6%, 2.8%, and 5.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while net profit growth is expected at 1.4%, 4.1%, and 5.2% [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 390 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.16%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 60 million yuan, up 5.60% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on the growth of its digital energy segment, which saw a significant year-on-year increase of 1216%, with revenue reaching 10.01 million yuan in Q1 2025 [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a cyclical recovery and internal cost reduction, with projected revenues of 2.11 billion yuan, 2.52 billion yuan, and 3.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue from variable frequency drives of 230 million yuan (up 18% year-on-year) and servo systems revenue of 130 million yuan (up 10% year-on-year) [4]. - The company’s overseas revenue reached 99 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 29% increase year-on-year, while domestic revenue was 280 million yuan, up 15% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s R&D investment in Q1 2025 was 50 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 330 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 480 million yuan respectively [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.55 yuan, 1.86 yuan, and 2.25 yuan respectively [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33, 27, and 22 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7].