本次会议为华经证券客户开发设计在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险本次会议内容的知识产权仅为华经证券所有未经华经证券事先书面许可 和或个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、发布或引用会议全部或部分内容亦不得从未经滑金证券书面授权的任何机构、个人或其运营的媒体平台接收、翻版、复制或引用会议的全部或部分内容不得制作会议机要对外发送擅自制作会议机要引起不当传播的后果自负版权所有 违者必究 各位朋友下午好欢迎参加华经宏观周日下午茶第35期进门采金线上录演本次录演呢万德3C会议平台也进行同步的转播 我是华金证券首席宏观分析师首席金融地产分析师秦泰本次电话会所涉及到的全部的研究逻辑观点以及报告的主要内容都已经在官方微信公众号华金宏观研究里面及时的给大家做了推送欢迎关注公众号华金宏观研究来参考我们相关的一些报告本次电话会我们的主题是 货币财政新信号和一季度经济的深度解读那么在上周大家看到一季度的经济数据已经公布了那么在这个数据公布之后也有国新办的新闻发布会央行和财政部分别对货币政策的新的一些从政策立场方面的变化以及财政政策今年的预算扩张特别 ...

446 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------|-----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 04 月 21 日 \n英维克（ 002837.SZ ） \n行业红利叠加公司实力，全链条"热管理"将迎 \n来增长 | 投资评级 \n股价 | (2024-04-19) | 公司研究●证券研究报告 \n机械 \| \n增持-B(维持 | 公司快报 \n 其他专用机械Ⅲ \n) \n30.52 元 | | | 交易数据 | | | | | 投资要点 | 总市值（百万元） | | | 17,292.09 ...

Economic Growth Insights - Q1 GDP growth was 5.3% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations, driven primarily by final consumption contributing 3.9 percentage points, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from Q1 2023[5] - Capital formation's contribution was only 0.6 percentage points, a significant decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to Q1 2023, indicating a divergence from high fixed investment growth[5] - Net exports contributed 0.8 percentage points, significantly better than Q1 2023, primarily due to the rapid depreciation of the RMB against the USD[5] Consumption Trends - Service consumption grew by 12.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing goods consumption, which grew by only 5.4%[6] - Final consumption's contribution to GDP growth improved but remained below pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing recovery challenges[6] - The decline in real estate prices has negatively impacted consumer spending on goods, reflecting a wealth contraction effect[6] Investment and Capital Formation - The decline in housing prices and construction activity has severely impacted capital formation, necessitating strong fiscal support for sustained investment growth[6] - The acceleration of inventory destocking has further reduced capital formation contributions, which are expected to remain low in the near term[6] Export Dynamics - The depreciation of the RMB has temporarily boosted net export contributions, reversing a trend of negative contributions over the previous four quarters[6] - Future net export contributions may decline as the RMB stabilizes and external trade conditions remain uncertain due to geopolitical tensions[6] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential limitations on monetary easing due to a high USD index and fiscal spending falling short of expectations[6]

9.00% 6,00% 3.00% -3.00% 呼导弹导演说老师不得去年"智敏学的得了要原林珍给她将留工林儿 精彩 者将外流傳出資料理解要得到不得要分於好好之旅兵班班要 查料指印 彩 据名称 股级并带座探索 松卡到破 安區钟多 载 图 带 軍官在是是立派系 同和流 作家好的 72 型 图 5.00 3.00 1.00 ww -1.00 -3.00 -5.00 -7.00 -9 00 e =2,144 客ଖ 百万平 建筑材 发探发 temple 世智能 电方法 哈密斯 提就说 公用平 安徽快 文 品 成就说 e 버동 0 资料来源:Wind,华金证券研究所 图 3: 全部申万一级行业本周涨跌情况(%) 7 / 18 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 4 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策略报告 我们对中国 2024 年的整体展望如下。中国是资本金融项目不完全开放的经济体，各类资产 价格主要受国内资产负债表两端变化的影响，预计 2024 年资产端实际 GDP 增速平稳运行，在 4-5%之间窄幅波动；负债端在稳定宏观杠杆率的目标下，实体部门负债增速趋于下行，向名义 经济增速靠拢，货币配合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [13][22]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the high-power variable frequency drive sector and has made significant breakthroughs in wind power converters, photovoltaic inverters, and hydrogen power sources, benefiting from the synergistic development of wind and solar energy [13][22]. - The report slightly lowers the earnings forecast due to increasing competition in the renewable energy sector, projecting net profits for 2024-2026 to be 630 million, 774 million, and 914 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.4, 10.9, and 9.2 times [13][14]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 3.752 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 33.56%, with a net profit of 502 million yuan, up 88.18% year-on-year [22]. - The gross profit margin for the renewable energy control and engineering transmission businesses was 33.24% and 45.57% respectively, reflecting improvements in profitability [22]. - The company’s R&D expenses reached 322 million yuan in 2023, a 52.81% increase year-on-year, ensuring continued technological advantages [22]. Performance Metrics - The projected revenue for 2024 is 4.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.9% [14]. - The report indicates an expected EPS of 1.42 yuan for 2024, with a projected net profit margin of 13.6% [14]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 13.5% in 2024, indicating strong profitability [14].

下 下 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 12 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 内容目录 图表目录 2 / 12 央行认为，近期名义利率已经持续降低的背景下，由于物价低位运行，导致部分行业可能 认为实际利率偏高，但也有行业感受的实际利率较低，需要分结构看。实际利率等于名义利率减 去通胀率，邹澜司长指出，"这两年，名义利率持续降低，为促进经济总体回升向好发挥了积极 作用"，"但是，内需偏弱，物价低位运行，这个情况同时存在"，并认为通胀的走低是实际利率 讨论的重要原因。在此基础上，邹澜指出不同行业和企业"感受到的实际利率是不一样的"，并 将这种差异分为"服务业和新动能领域"和"房地产关联度比较高"的行业进行了分类举例，认 为前者（如文化娱乐等）在价格保持上涨态势的同时，金融机构积极提供融资，名义利率较低， 感受的实际利率"会低一些"；而后者（如黑色金属）等"需要从紧配置金融资源的领域"，因产 品价格跌幅较大，金融机构提供融资也比较审慎，名义利率和实际利率的感受都会更高，但这种 结构性差异，邹澜指出"一定程度上也有利于推动企业控产能、去库存"，"也是中央金融工作会 议'总量上保持合理充裕、结 ...

三个视角观察经济开门红的可持续性 事件点评 投资要点 服务消费保持高增区间，商品消费倾向边际下降。最终消费对经济增长的贡献同比 改善但仍低于疫情前水平，服务消费保持高增的同时，商品消费倾向边际下降，后 者在更大程度上受到房价下跌引发的财富收缩效应的直接影响。一季度服务性消费 同比增长 12.7%，大幅高于商品性消费 5.4%的同比增速，进一步验证了服务消费 由基本的社交需求和休闲娱乐需求所驱动、因而具备较为稳定的增长路径的特征。 在服务消费倾向连续恢复的同时，商品消费倾向却连续数个季度边际回落，反映出 房地产市场深度调整、房价连续下跌对居民商品消费的拖累作用。展望 2-4 季度， "灰犀牛"近身，企业借贷意愿亦开始降温 ——金融数据速评（2024.3） 2024.4.12 新"国九条"的四点理解 2024.4.12 出口仍需枕戈待旦——国际贸易数据点评 （2024.3） 2024.4.12 闰年效应消退之后房价恐还需面临一定的下行压力，商品消费内生增长动能仍相对 房价和竣工下滑、加速去库存拖累资本形成。在固定投资高增的背景下，资本形成 贡献大幅缩减，主要原因有二，其一是房价连续下跌、竣工增速转负，令房地产开 ...

2024年04月20日 公司研究●证券研究报告 润泽科技（ ） 公司快报 300442.SZ 计算机 | 云基础设施服务Ⅲ IDC 到 AIDC 行业领军，智算中心引领未来 投资评级 买入-B(维持) 股价(2024-04-19) 28.40元 投资要点： 事件：2024年4月18日，润泽科技发布2023年年度报告，2023年公司实现营 交易数据 业收入43.51亿元，同比增长60.27%，实现归母净利润17.62亿元，同比增长 总市值（百万元） 48,864.41 47.03%，扣非净利润17.1亿，同比增长50.18%。第四季度实现营收16.69亿元， 流通市值（百万元） 10,189.72 归母净利润6.41亿元。 总股本（百万股） 1,720.58 流通股本（百万股） 358.79 事件分析： 12个月价格区间 69.70/19.06 经营保持总体稳定，长效激励注入动力。公司主营业务包括IDC业务和AIDC业务。 一年股价表现 主要提供服务器托管服务、运营维护、安全管理服务，同时，为终端大模型客户提 供智算服务。2023年IDC业务实现营业收入31.51亿，同比增长16.10%，毛利 率为54.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate - B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1][3]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth driven by its digital gas and smart water services, with a 15.91% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2023, reaching 3.175 billion yuan, and a 51.09% increase in net profit, totaling 409 million yuan [1][3]. - In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 720 million yuan, reflecting a 12.48% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of approximately 98.96 million yuan, up 22.03% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is expanding its Internet of Things (IoT) solutions into new areas such as hydrogen energy and process measurement, while maintaining a strong presence in digital gas and water services [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company generated a total revenue of 3.175 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.91%, and a net profit of 409 million yuan, marking a 51.09% increase [1][3]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 720 million yuan, a 12.48% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 98.96 million yuan, up 22.03% [1][3]. Business Segments - The main products include smart residential gas terminals and systems, smart commercial gas terminals and systems, and smart water terminals and systems. In 2023, the revenue from smart gas reached 2.52 billion yuan, a 13.88% increase, accounting for 79.46% of total revenue [1][3]. - The digital water business generated 279 million yuan in 2023, representing an impressive growth of 53.22% year-on-year [1][3]. Market Position - The company holds the largest market share in the global smart gas meter market, as reported by Omdia for 2022, and continues to lead in the gas industry with a 16.25% increase in smart residential gas terminal revenue [1][3]. - The company has established partnerships with major clients in the water sector, including Beijing Water Group and Shanghai Urban Investment Water, enhancing its market presence [1][3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 3.911 billion yuan, 4.745 billion yuan, and 5.461 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.2%, 21.3%, and 15.1% [3][4]. - The net profit is expected to reach 520 million yuan, 617 million yuan, and 757 million yuan for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 27.1%, 18.9%, and 22.6% [3][4].

2024年04月19日 行业研究●证券研究报告 电力设备及新能源 行业周报 一季度国内 系三元材料渗透率提升，三 6 投资评级 领先大市-B维持 部委开展百县千站万桩试点工程 首选股票 评级 【第 期】 16 300750.SZ 宁德时代 买入-A 投资要点 一年行业表现 新能源汽车：本周，根据ICC鑫椤资讯统计数据显示，2024年1-3月，中国及 全球三元材料产量分别达到15.6万吨和23.4万吨，同比分别上涨23.8%和 3.1%。星源材质与三星SDI签订《战略备忘录》，约定公司向三星SDI供应约 22.2亿平方米湿法涂覆锂离子电池隔膜材料。当升科技公告称，公司相关固态 锂电产品已成功导入辉能、清陶、卫蓝新能源、赣锋锂电等固态电池客户，并实 现批量销售。我们预计待碳酸锂价格逐步企稳后，锂电行业排产有望逐步向好， 叠加行业估值已处于历史低位，我们认为锂电行业有望迎来一定的估值修复，建 资料来源：聚源 议关注，动力电池：宁德时代、亿纬锂能、国轩高科、中创新航；正极：当升 科技、容百科技、厦钨新能、振华新材、长远锂科、中伟股份等；隔膜：恩捷 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 股份、星源材质等；负极：尚太科技、璞泰来 ...