http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 定期报告 3 / 21 （一）历年 5 月 A 股主要受基本面、流动性、政策和外部冲击影响 政策和外部冲击对 5 月市场走势也有一定影响。（1）首先，4 月政治局会议对 5 月走势影响 有限：一是 4 月政治局会议与两会间隔较近，多为其政策提供补充或细化，较难大幅超出市场预 期；二是仅 2015 年会议提出财政政策要增加公共支出且加大降税清费力度下市场表现较强、 2019 年政治局会议重提"去杠杆"下市场表现偏弱、2022 年政治局会议提出要加大宏观政策调 节力度后 5 月上证上涨。（2）其次，其他政策对 5 月影响较大，如：2010 年"国十一条"发布 后住建部进一步完善市场监管和预售制度政策，2010 和 2011 年地产调控收紧，上证综指下跌； 2014 年"国九条"发布推进资本市场发展，上证表现较强；2017 年金融去杠杆推进下市场情绪 受扰，市场表现偏弱；2019 年证监会严查场外配资，上证综指下跌。 定期报告 图 3:2010年以来 5 月 TOP5 涨幅 ...

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 2 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 图 1: 利润总额当期同比及贡献结构 (%) 40 共他 = 营业费用 =利润总额当期同比(%) ■ 营业成本 贡献:营业收入 30 20 10 0 24 03 2 20-09 20-12 21-03 23-09 23-12 -10 -20 -30 -40 资料来源: Wind，华金证券研究所 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ Huajin Secur 华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 are | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's buying and selling of government bonds is a classical yet modern monetary policy tool, essential for establishing the essence of credit currency backed by national credit[7] - Since 2015, proactive monetary issuance has been explored, with current mainstream tools being variations of secondary market government bond transactions[27] Current Economic Context - The necessity and urgency for the central bank to engage in government bond transactions are not high in the short term, despite being an ideal time for such actions[12] - The use of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) has become a primary method for medium to long-term liquidity provision, with the current average RRR at 7%[13] Liquidity Tools and Efficiency - The transition to secondary market government bond transactions could clarify the relationship between interest rates and monetary supply, enhancing communication of monetary policy[60] - Existing liquidity tools, such as MLF and PSL, are seen as transitional, with the need for more stable and efficient monetary supply tools increasing over time[13] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - Current fiscal expansion financing is within the normal range of monetary credit transmission, reducing the need for large-scale primary market purchases to address liquidity shocks[31] - The potential scale required for secondary market transactions remains small, allowing existing tools to effectively manage liquidity needs in the coming years[31] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that the monetary policy's easing may not meet expectations, which could impact the effectiveness of liquidity measures[19]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|---------------------|-------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 04 月 27 日 \n天下秀（ 600556.SH ） \n红人业务根基稳固， "AI+出海"赋能创意营销 \n投资要点 | 投资评级 \n股价 \n交易数据 | 传媒 \n(2024-04-26) | 公司研究●证券研究报告 \n\| 增持 -A( | 公司快报 \n互联网广告营销Ⅲ 首次) \n4.51 元 | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 事件： 2023 年，公司实现营收 42.02 亿元，同比增长 1.77% ；归 ...

2024年04月27日 行业研究●证券研究报告 通信 行业周报 算力热度不减：海外 高速增长，国内集 capex 投资评级 领先大市-A维持 采加速 首选股票 评级 投资要点 600941.SH 中国移动 增持-B 1、本周回顾 002049.SZ 紫光国微 买入-B 本周通信(中信) 上涨4.54%，同期上证指数上涨0.76%，深证成指上涨1.99%， 一年行业表现 创业板指上涨3.86%，沪深300上涨1.20%。从板块来着，光模块（CPO）本周 表现最佳，涨幅达8.94%，工业互联网板块相对弱势，涨幅仅为4.20%。 涨幅前三的个股为：奥维通信(61.48%)、广哈通信(43.16%)、神宇股份(27.62%)。 通信行业仍表现全面回暖。此外，AI算力指数本周涨幅为8.01%、东数西算指数涨 幅为8.67%；专网领域标的佳讯飞鸿、海能达涨幅分别5.61%、3.69%。我们认为 本周A股市场整体仍处于震荡行情，但存在走出震荡区间的态势。通信产业驱动较 多，持续催化看好全板块投资机会。 资料来源：聚源 运营商及主设备商领域：中国联通数据中心交换机集采：中兴、新华三、华为等5 家中标；400G超长距全光传输 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" [8] Core Insights - The company has fully embraced AI, achieving a 100% coverage of the "human + AI" work model, resulting in an overall business productivity increase of approximately 50% [2] - In 2023, AI-driven revenue reached 108 million, with expectations to grow by 500 to 1,000 million in 2024 [2] - The company reported a revenue of 52.616 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 43.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 117 million, marking a return to profitability [7] - The company is expanding its overseas business significantly, although the overall gross margin for overseas operations remains low [3] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 62.719 billion, 72.861 billion, and 82.024 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 16.2%, and 12.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 351 million, 596 million, and 766 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 201.0%, 69.8%, and 28.6% [3] - The company's EPS is projected to be 0.14, 0.24, and 0.31 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 45.6, 26.8, and 20.9 [3] - The gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 3.4% in 2023 to 3.0% by 2026 [3] Business Growth and Strategy - The company has seen significant growth in its comprehensive promotion and overseas marketing, with comprehensive promotion revenue reaching 11.282 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.05% [7] - The overseas advertising revenue continues to rise, contributing over 70% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 41.69% [7] - The partnership with TikTok For Business has resulted in a nearly 50% increase in advertising revenue, indicating strong performance in the overseas market [7]

2024年04月26日 公司研究●证券研究报告 森麒麟（ ） 公司快报 002984.SZ 基础化工 | 橡胶制品Ⅲ 业绩亮眼高增，全球化布局助力持续成长 投资评级 买入-B(首次) 股价(2024-04-26) 25.77元 投资要点 交易数据 事件：森麒麟发布2024年一季报，2024Q1公司实现营收21.15亿元，同比增长 总市值（百万元） 26,627.84 27.59%，环比增长0.73%；归母净利润5.04亿元，同比增长101.34%，环比增长 流通市值（百万元） 18,119.96 34.28%；扣非归母净利润4.97亿元，同比增长106.70%，环比增长42.96%。 总股本（百万股） 1,033.29 流通股本（百万股） 703.14 量利高增，业绩亮眼。2023年森麒麟为代表企业之一的中国轮胎行业整体经营形 12个月价格区间 35.88/25.95 势全面复苏。公司高品质、高性能产品在欧美轮胎市场具备高性价比的竞争优势， 订单需求持续处于供不应求状态；在具有高增长潜力的国内市场，亦呈现出复苏态 一年股价表现 势。2023年伴随公司泰国二期项目的大规模投产，森麒麟持续保持稳健增长发展态 ...

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 投资建议：公司深耕国防及行业信息化领域，主营业务涵盖卫星应用、仿真测试、 雷达信号处理、无人系统等方向，受益于北斗换代、低空经济、卫星互联网景气度 提升，公司业务预计将迎来边际改善，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司 2024-2026 年收入 9.98/13.05/16.28 亿元（24-25 年预测前值为 6.87/8.72 亿元），同比增长 40.7%/30.7%/24.8%，归母净利润分别为 0.39/0.71/1.14 亿元（24-25 年预测前值 为 0.23/0.46 亿元），同比增长 120.6%/82.4%/60.4%，对应 EPS 为 0.06/0.11/0.17 元，维持"增持"评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|--------- ...

食品饮料 | 休闲食品Ⅲ 交易数据 流通市值（百万元） 12,722.99 流通股本（百万股） 172.61 资料来源：聚源 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 相对收益 10.86 1.53 -2.41 绝对收益 10.99 7.14 -13.33 全渠道多品类开花，重视价值链分配变化 公司发布 2023 年年报，23 年实现营收 41.15 亿元，同比+42.22%；归母净利润 5.06 亿元，同比+67.76%；扣非归母净利润 4.76 亿元，同比+72.84%。其中 23Q4 实现营 收 11.11 亿元，同比+ 20.22%；归母净利润 1.10 亿元，同比+32.62%；扣非归母净 利润 1.00 亿元，同比+21.23%。 投资要点 24Q1 经营分析：业绩表现亮眼，开局势能延续。24Q1 实现营收 12.23 亿元，同 比+37.00%，全渠道战略下公司增长势能延续。24Q1 毛利率同比-2.47pct 至 32.10%，主要因公司高毛利渠道占比下降、电商及零食量贩等低毛利渠道占比提 升。24Q1 公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别为 13.00%/4.23%/1.30%，分别同比 -0.77/-0.15 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating to the company with a target price of 15.09 CNY as of April 25, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.065 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.26%, and a net profit of 210 million CNY, up 68.12% year-on-year [1]. - The company aims to double its revenue again in the next three years, targeting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% [1][3]. - The growth is driven by increased sales of quail eggs and the upgrade of packaging and distribution channels [1][4]. Revenue Analysis - In 2023, the company reported revenue growth across various quarters: Q1 +68.40%, Q2 +35.17%, Q3 +45.92%, and Q4 +26.51% [1]. - Revenue breakdown by product category for 2023 includes fish products at 1.291 billion CNY (+25.87%), poultry products at 451.96 million CNY (+147.56%), and vegetable products at 72.11 million CNY (+88.24%) [1][29]. - The company has seen a significant increase in the proportion of small packaging revenue, which accounted for 49% of total revenue, up 16% year-on-year [1]. Profit Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 28.17%, an increase of 2.54 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 32.61% [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2023 was 10.15%, up 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects strong growth in its second major product, quail eggs, as production bottlenecks ease and brand recognition increases [3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 30.9%, 23.9%, and 20.9% for 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth rates of 37.8%, 30.2%, and 25.1% respectively [4][12]. - The company is focusing on expanding its modern distribution channels and enhancing its brand image through product innovation and differentiation [3][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 2.704 billion CNY, with a net profit of 289 million CNY [12]. - The report indicates that the company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 22.5x, 17.3x, and 13.8x respectively, suggesting a relatively attractive valuation compared to peers [4][33].