Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards the new stock market, suggesting a potential observation window for investment opportunities [1][13]. Core Insights - The new stock market has shown signs of volatility with a significant shift between bullish and bearish trends, indicating a complex market environment [1][13]. - The average weekly increase for newly listed stocks since 2023 has dropped to approximately -3.6%, with only 16.6% of stocks showing positive returns last week, a stark contrast to previous weeks [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and capital flows closely, recommending a flexible and cautious investment strategy [1][13]. Summary by Sections New Stock Insights - The new stock market has experienced rapid shifts between bullish and bearish trends, suggesting that this week may serve as a critical observation period for potential changes in market dynamics [1][13]. - The report notes that the structural bullish momentum remains temporarily unchanged despite the recent market corrections [1][13]. Recent New Stock Performance - Last week, only one new stock was available for online subscription, with an issuance price-earnings ratio of 10.6X for the stock Hong Sifang [19][20]. - The newly listed stock on the North Exchange saw a first-day increase of 280.3%, indicating strong market interest [23][27]. Upcoming New Stock Subscriptions - This week, four new stocks are set to be listed, with an average issuance price-earnings ratio of approximately 17.6X for the newly subscribed stocks [33][39]. - The report encourages continued attention to new stock subscriptions, highlighting the ongoing profitability potential in this area [33][34]. Company Performance Metrics - The report provides performance metrics for several companies, including: - Jin Tian Tai Ye, with projected revenue growth of 16.03% to 31.86% for the first three quarters of 2024 [39]. - Yi Lian Technology, expecting revenue growth of 19.14% to 31.17% in 2024 [40]. - Wan Yuan Tong, with anticipated revenue growth of 1.62% to 6.70% in 2024 [41][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shengye Electric (920128.BJ) is "Buy," indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months compared to the relevant market index [51]. Core Viewpoints - Shengye Electric specializes in film capacitors, providing products such as motor capacitors, power electronic capacitors, and power capacitors, with applications in home appliances, renewable energy, and power quality management [17][30]. - The company has established a diversified product matrix, achieving a competitive advantage and accumulating a rich customer base, including major clients in various sectors [39][41]. - Shengye Electric's revenue and profit have shown consistent growth, with a reported revenue of 572.7 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.32%, and a net profit of 45.4 million yuan, up 56.46% year-on-year [6][18]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - Shengye Electric achieved revenues of 446 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 573 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.05%, 13.29%, and 12.32% respectively. The net profit for the same years was 22.1 million yuan, 29 million yuan, and 45.4 million yuan, with growth rates of 1.26%, 24.89%, and 56.46% respectively. For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenues of 452 million yuan, a 6.45% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 37 million yuan, a 3.93% increase year-on-year [18][6]. Industry Situation - The film capacitor industry is characterized by its use of plastic film as a dielectric, offering advantages such as high reliability and long lifespan. The global film capacitor market was approximately 24.4 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected growth to 39 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.83% from 2022 to 2027 [31][32]. Company Highlights - Shengye Electric has developed a diverse product matrix, covering various application fields such as home appliances and renewable energy, and has established long-term partnerships with notable companies. The company ranks third in domestic sales of film capacitors and is a significant supplier in the photovoltaic and energy storage inverter sectors [39][41]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with a production base in Thailand that has facilitated stable supply to North American clients and partnerships with major appliance manufacturers in emerging markets [41]. - Shengye Electric is extending its operations along the value chain, focusing on both downstream and upstream developments in the film capacitor sector [41][42]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in two projects through its IPO, including the expansion of its production line for new energy film capacitors and the establishment of a research and development center, with total planned investment of approximately 177 million yuan [42][43].

下 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 11 月 16 日 \n继续调整幅度有限 | 策略类●证券研究报告 \n定期报告 | | 投资要点 | 分析师 邓利军 | | 从情绪指标、领涨板块成交额占比、成长行业轮动等来看 A 股短期继续调整幅度 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080001 | | 有限。（ 1 ）情绪指标和领涨板块成交额占比处于高位，但政策和流动性未有大变 | denglijun@huajinsc.cn 张欣诺 | | 化下难进一步大幅调整。一是 200 日均线以上个股占比从 11 月 11 日的 87% 回落 | 报告联系人 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that it is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [45]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Jiachitech (688708.SH), specializes in electromagnetic functional materials and structures (EMMS), with key products including stealth coating materials, stealth structural components, and electromagnetic compatibility materials. The market demand for these products is anticipated to grow steadily due to the acceleration of weaponry upgrades and the development of information technology in China [16][30]. - The company achieved revenues of 530 million CNY, 769 million CNY, and 981 million CNY in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 89.90%, 45.04%, and 27.55%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 167 million CNY, 484 million CNY, and 564 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 24.16%, 189.57%, and 16.45% respectively [5][17]. - The company is positioned as a key supplier in the domestic EMMS field, with strong collaborations with military units such as the Aviation Industry Corporation of China. The founder, a professor and academician, leads a team with substantial expertise in the field [31][34]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company reported revenues of 5.89 billion CNY for the first nine months of 2024, a year-over-year decline of 16.86%. The net profit for the same period was 3.20 billion CNY, down 17.31% year-over-year. The management forecasts a revenue growth of 3.99% and a net profit growth of 1.47% for the full year 2024 [17][37]. Industry Situation - The stealth materials industry is crucial for enhancing the survivability and combat capabilities of high-tech weaponry. The demand for stealth technology is expected to rise significantly, particularly for stealth missiles, drones, and naval vessels [25][26][27]. Company Highlights - EMMS is identified as a key foundational material for the stealth capabilities of high-tech military equipment. The company has established a strong market position due to its technological advancements and collaborations with military entities [30][31]. - The company is expanding into the civilian electromagnetic compatibility materials market, leveraging its military technology expertise to address growing demands in consumer electronics [32][34]. Investment Projects - The company plans to invest in two main projects through its IPO proceeds: the construction of a manufacturing base for electromagnetic functional materials and a research center for EMMS. These projects are expected to significantly boost annual revenues and profits upon completion [35][36]. Peer Comparison - In comparison to similar companies in the industry, Jiachitech's revenue for 2023 was 9.81 billion CNY, with a net profit of 5.64 billion CNY. The average revenue of comparable companies was 25.48 billion CNY, indicating that while Jiachitech's revenue is below average, its profit margin is relatively high [38][41].

Retail Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of substantial growth[7] - The retail sales of automobiles and home appliances rose by 3.3 and 18.7 percentage points to 3.7% and 39.2% respectively, contributing to a 4.0 percentage point increase in retail sales above designated limits to 6.8%[7] - Furniture retail, which does not benefit from the current subsidies, also saw a year-on-year increase of 7 percentage points to 7.4%[7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth remained flat at a low level of 3.4% year-on-year in October, showing no significant improvement despite new policy measures[11] - Real estate development investment saw a deeper decline of 3.0 percentage points to -12.3%, indicating cautious expectations from developers regarding demand[11] - Broad infrastructure investment growth slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.2%, with significant declines in sectors closely related to government debt, such as energy and transportation[11] Real Estate Market - In October, the year-on-year decline in residential construction area and sales area improved significantly by 10.5 and 9.3 percentage points to -19.7% and -1.3% respectively[17] - However, new construction area saw a deeper decline of 8.1 percentage points to -25.8%, indicating a cautious approach to new projects due to high potential inventory[17] - Recent tax reductions on real estate transactions may help stabilize housing prices, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.4% increase in second-hand housing prices for the first time in 18 months[17] Manufacturing and Economic Outlook - Industrial value-added growth slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.3% year-on-year in October, with mining and manufacturing sectors showing improvements[22] - The forecast for 2025 includes an expansion of the general budget deficit to around 4.2%, with expected consumption subsidies of 400-500 billion yuan to stimulate domestic demand[25] - The overall economic growth target for 2025 is set at approximately 4.5%[25]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------------------------|----------------| | 2024 年 11 月 14 日 \n其他化学制品Ⅲ | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 \n行业快报 | | | 供应偏紧，正丙醇价格持续拉升 | 投资评级 | 领先大市 | | (维持) | | 投资要点 | 首选股票 | | | 评级 | | 事件：据百川盈孚，2024年11月14日正丙醇市场价为10800元/吨，较昨日(10250 | | | | | | 元/吨)涨幅 5.4%，较上周(9500 元/吨)涨幅 13.7%，较上月(9000 元/吨)涨幅 | 一年行业表现 | | | | | 20.0%，较去年同期(7200 元/吨)涨幅 50.0%，较年初(7400 元/吨)涨 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that it is expected to outperform the relevant market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [32]. Core Insights - The company, Yinstar (301622.SZ), specializes in the research, production, and sales of rare earth permanent magnet materials, primarily serving major clients like Apple, Microsoft, and Xiaomi. It has established a strong partnership with Apple, which contributes significantly to its revenue [10][23]. - In the latest reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 849 million yuan from January to September 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.11%, and a net profit of 138 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.66% [11][28]. - The company is expanding its business into the electric vehicle sector, which is projected to be a major growth area for rare earth materials, as the demand for high-performance magnets in electric vehicles is expected to rise significantly [25][22]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 670.3 million yuan, 1.134 billion yuan, and 951.8 million yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 78.73%, 69.14%, and -16.04% respectively. The net profits for the same years were 127.8 million yuan, 199.3 million yuan, and 138.3 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 79.91%, 55.92%, and -30.58% respectively [4][11]. - For 2024, the company forecasts a revenue increase of 15.69% compared to 2023, with a projected net profit growth of 0.28% [28]. Industry Overview - The rare earth permanent magnet materials industry is experiencing steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% in demand from 2020 to 2023. The industry is characterized by a balance between supply and demand, with production and consumption steadily increasing [17][19]. - The automotive sector is becoming a significant application area for rare earth materials, with the demand for high-performance magnets in electric vehicles expected to drive growth in this segment [22][25]. Company Highlights - Yinstar has been a core supplier of rare earth permanent magnet materials to Apple, with a strong history of collaboration. In 2023, revenue from Apple-related products reached 628 million yuan, accounting for 71% of the company's main business revenue [23][10]. - The company is actively expanding into non-consumer electronics applications, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, and has established a new production line for sintered neodymium-iron-boron magnets to support this growth [25][10]. Comparable Company Analysis - Compared to its peers, Yinstar's revenue for 2023 was 951.8 million yuan, which is below the average revenue of 4.579 billion yuan for comparable companies. However, its sales gross margin of 26.25% is positioned in the higher range among its industry peers [29][28].

Group 1: Inflation Data - The U.S. October CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points from September to 2.6% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained steady at 3.3% for the third consecutive month[1] - The core CPI rose by 0.28% month-on-month in October, marking the second-highest monthly increase in six months[1] - The main driver for the overall CPI rebound was a narrowing decline in oil prices due to a lower base effect[1] Group 2: Wage and Inflation Dynamics - There are emerging risks of further wage growth in the U.S. that could lead to a new round of inflation transmission, particularly as Trump's second term begins in January 2025[1] - The core CPI's persistence is attributed to core goods, non-rent services, and rent, with the first two closely linked to wage dynamics[1] - Rent prices increased by 0.35% month-on-month in October, improving by 0.12 percentage points from September, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation[1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Challenges - The combination of high fiscal deficits, loose monetary policy, and protectionist measures is contributing to sustained high inflation levels, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year[1] - The report anticipates that the core inflation may experience a slight decline in the first half of 2025, opening up a potential for two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points[1] - However, after mid-2025, the implementation of Trump's policies could reignite wage inflation, significantly limiting the Fed's ability to cut rates further[1] Group 4: Market Implications - The U.S. dollar index, which recently surged above 106, may continue to experience volatility and could strengthen further[1] - There are increasing pressures for the renminbi to depreciate, which may constrain monetary easing options for the Fed[1] - Risks include the possibility that the Fed's rate cuts may be smaller than expected and increased depreciation pressure on the renminbi[1]

Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced a reduction in housing transaction deed tax, with rates set at 1% for properties under 140 square meters and 1.5% and 2% for first and second homes over 140 square meters respectively, effective December 1[1] - The exemption of value-added tax (VAT) for homes sold after two years in first-tier cities will be implemented, aligning these cities with other regions[1] - The deed tax reduction is expected to marginally boost housing demand, although its impact is limited compared to income and housing price expectations[1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The reduction in deed tax will lower the total price of homes, enhancing buyers' purchasing power, particularly in first-tier cities where reliance on debt is high[1] - The cancellation of VAT for non-standard residential properties may increase the supply of larger second-hand homes, with a limited overall impact on demand[1] - The current real estate market is experiencing a deep adjustment, primarily affecting supply-side issues such as slow completion and delivery of projects[1] Group 3: Economic Implications - The overall effect of the tax changes may accelerate the downward adjustment of housing prices towards equilibrium levels, facilitating a quicker stabilization of the real estate market[1] - The core issue affecting demand in second and third-tier cities is the weak industrial base, rather than transaction taxes[1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy in mitigating risks in the real estate market and improving liquidity for developers[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor packaging and testing sector [1]. Core Insights - The advanced packaging sector is expected to be a key focus for research and development, with significant growth anticipated in 2025 driven by AI-related applications [2][4]. - The gross margin for the packaging sector has shown a recovery trend since Q1 2024, although it remains below the levels seen in Q4 2023 [11]. Summary by Sections Overview - The gross margins for the semiconductor packaging and discrete device sectors are recovering but still lag behind Q4 2023 levels. As of Q3 2024, the gross margins for integrated circuit packaging and discrete devices are 19.78% and 21.02%, respectively, which are lower than the margins in Q4 2023 by 1.98 and 2.43 percentage points [11]. OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) - **ASE Technology**: In Q3 2024, ASE reported a revenue of 123.66 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.82% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.00%. The company is focusing on advanced packaging and testing, with a capacity utilization rate between 65%-70% [21]. - **Anke**: The company achieved a revenue of 134.21 billion RMB in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 14.6%. The growth is attributed to the demand for advanced packaging in high-performance computing and AI applications [21]. - **Powertech Technology**: The company reported a revenue of 40.72 billion RMB in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 21.40%, showing improvements due to better capacity utilization and product mix [1]. Testing - **Weizhi Technology**: The company has seen significant growth in revenue and profitability in Q3 2024, with a gross margin reaching 42.45%, marking a recovery since Q1 2024 [11]. - **Jingyuan Electronics**: Reported a revenue of 15.66 billion RMB in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 35.90%, indicating a slight recovery in the market [21]. Market Trends - The global smartphone market saw a 5% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q3 2024, reaching 309.9 million units, marking the strongest performance for the third quarter since 2021 [3]. - The PC market also showed resilience, with a 1% year-on-year increase in shipments, totaling 65.3 million units in Q3 2024 [3]. - The automotive sector reported a 1.9% increase in production and a 2.7% increase in sales from January to October 2024, with new energy vehicles accounting for 39.6% of total new car sales [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the semiconductor packaging sector such as Tongfu Microelectronics, Changjiang Electronics, and Huada Semiconductor, as well as equipment manufacturers like North Huachuang and Zhongwei Technology [4].