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PMI点评(2024.6):外部环境严峻、投资增长降温,拖累PMI连续低迷
Huajin Securities· 2024-07-01 02:00
下 下 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 图 1: 制造业 PMI 较荣枯线之差与贡献结构 (%) 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 新订单 -3 生产指数 ■从业人员 -4 供应商配送时间 -5 原材料库存 制造业PMI-50及贡献 -6 资料来源:CEIC,华金证券研究所 2 / 4 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
鼎龙股份:光电半导体业务放量,预计24H1业绩同比显著提升
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-30 23:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Dinglong Co., Ltd. (300054.SZ) with a target price of 22.68 CNY [1][3]. Core Views - Dinglong Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant year-on-year performance improvement in H1 2024, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 201 million to 221 million CNY, representing a growth of 110%-130% [1]. - The company's optoelectronic semiconductor business is anticipated to account for over 40% of total revenue, driven by increased market share and demand in the domestic semiconductor and OLED display panel industries [1][3]. - The report highlights the successful development and sales growth of CMP polishing pads and other semiconductor materials, with sales expected to reach approximately 6.4 billion CNY in H1 2024, up from 32% to about 42% of total revenue [1][4]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected revenues for Dinglong Co., Ltd. are estimated at 3.218 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7% [4][5]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be around 441 million CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 98.6% compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a steady increase in gross margin from 36.9% in 2023 to 39.9% in 2024, and further improvements in subsequent years [4][5]. Business Development - The company is making progress in the advanced packaging materials sector, with plans to develop and validate new products to capture market share in high-end packaging materials [1][3]. - Dinglong Co., Ltd. has established a comprehensive application evaluation system to ensure that the performance of its materials meets customer requirements, and is actively working on supply chain autonomy [1][3]. - The report notes that the company has successfully completed the industrialization of temporary bonding adhesives and is ready for mass production, enhancing its competitive position in the market [1][3].
智能驾驶智能驾驶系列报告(一):智能驾驶方案简剖证券
华金证券· 2024-06-30 15:43AI Processing
u 据华为智能汽车解决方案BU CEO靳玉志在今年4月表示,问界70% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 2023年全年销量 2024年1月 2024年2月 2024年3月 2024年4月 用户选择了华为高阶智能驾驶包,考虑到ADS 2.0于Q2发布,结合 2023年Q2-4问界系列累计销量为8.83万辆、今年1-4月问界系列累 计销量为11.55万辆,使用华为ADS 2.0高阶智驾包的用户至少达 到14.26万名。假设所有用户均采用买断形式、并以相应阶段的优 惠价格进行购买计算,华为ADS 2.0高阶包已实现销售规模约为 资料来源:车家号、IT之家、澎湃新闻、经济观察报、华金证券研究所整理 u 智能驾驶L3标准制定工作自2020年已经开始,华为深度参与了标准的制定,如在L3应该如何定义、具体的产品形态、 具备怎样的准入门槛、如何测试验证、人机交互如何免责等方面,从技术实现到量产落地,再到可能的政策补贴等 领域全面深度参与讨论。 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 31 供应链之计算SoC:主控芯片华为自研,供应链多为海外厂商 禾赛创始人投资的傲图科技旗下4D毫米波雷达首款产 ...
7月A股会反弹吗?继续配红利还是科技?
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-30 15:14
本次会议为华经证券客户开发设计在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险本次会议内容的知识产权仅为华经证券所有未经华经证券事先书面许可 和或个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、发布或引用会议全部或部分内容亦不得从未经华经证券书面授权的任何机构、个人或其运营的媒体平台接收、翻版、复制或引用会议的全部或部分内容不得制作会议机要对外发送擅自制作会议机要引起不当传播的后果自负版权所有 违者必究 好的各位投资者大家晚上好我是环境人权研究所策略设计分析师邓丽君那又到了我们每周的聚焦一刻的电话会议的时间那今天是六月底啊明天就是七月份那本周呢我们聚焦一刻的主题呢呃给大家关注一下就是七月份的这个A股的走势因为 整个6月份A股走的还是比较弱持续的这个数量的悬底那也跌破了3000点不过最近两天A股已经有一定的这个奇闻的迹象了那我们自然就会问就是7月份A股会怎么走会不会有反弹还是说会延续6月的这个走势延续比较偏弱的这么一个趋势呢 然后我们看到六月份表现比较好的是两头啊一个呢就是高股息相关的一些资产另外呢就是科技啊表现还是相对比较占优的那么七月份啊我们到底 ...
七月可能出现反弹
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-30 03:00
http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 定期报告 内容目录 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | 图表目录 | | | | 图 1: 7 月市场表现及相关指标变化一览… | | | | 图 2: 高技术制造业 PMI 处于景气区间 . | | | | 图 3: 商品房销售增速出现改善 . | | | | 图 4: 4-5 月上中下游行业工业企业利润累计增速变化一览 . | | | | 图 5: 5月各工业行业利润总额累计同比一览 | | | | 图 6: 2023 年中报登利增速分行业一览 . | | | | 图 7: 近期央行加大逆回购力度 . | | | | 图 8: 当前民调数据显示特朗普支持率高于拜登 . | ...
通信行业周报:OpenAI收紧管制,中国纯血鸿蒙、千帆星座迸发
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-29 03:30
通信 行业周报 OpenAI 收紧管制,中国纯血鸿蒙、千帆星座迸 投资要点 1、本周回顾 本周通信(中信)下跌 1.19%,同期上证指数下跌 1.03%,深证成指下跌 2.38%,创 业板指下跌 4.13%,沪深 300 下跌 0.97%。从板块来看,高频 PCB 本周表现优秀, 涨幅达 2.86%,光模块(CPO)相对弱势,跌幅达 6.76%。涨幅前三的个股为: 线上线下(17.62%)、会畅通讯(16.35%)、华菱线缆(8.44%)。通信行业转跌。此外, AI 算力指数本周下跌 3.44%、东数西算指数下跌 2.21%;专网领域标的佳讯飞鸿 下跌 3.55%、海能达上涨 2.52%。通信产业驱动较多,持续催化,看好全板块投资 机会。算力/大模型:OpenAI 将采取额外措施,停止其不支持的国家和地区的 API 使用;科大讯飞发布星火大模型 4.0:整体超越 GPT-4 Turbo;中国移动算力中心 北京节点投入使用,智能算力规模超 1000P;内蒙新政:大型数据中心要建在集群 内,绿电比例不低于 80%;中国移动携手中兴通讯率先在河北落地网络云智算项目; 5G 网络基建:上海移动 5G-A 商用发布,推 ...
应用落地与数据最新情况
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-29 03:10
Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The document does not specify a particular company or industry involved in the conference call Core Points and Arguments - The call begins with an expression of gratitude for attendance, indicating a formal and professional setting [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - No additional content or significant insights are provided in the document [1]
传媒:Gemma 2发布,降本提效延展AI生态
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-28 08:01
2024 年 06 月 28 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 传媒 行业快报 Gemma 2 发布,降本提效延展 AI 生态 投资要点 热点事件:6 月 27 日,Google 面向全球研究人员和开发人员发布 Gemma 2 大 语言模型,目前有 90 亿参数(9B)和 270 亿参数(27B)两种大小,并将在未 来几个月发布参数为 26 亿的 Gemma 2 模型,更适合智能手机的人工智能应用 场景。大语言模型持续迭代,降本增效有望加速 AI 赋能 B 端和 C 端应用和生产。 Gemma 2 带来效率和性能的提升。目前,Gemma 2 共推出 9B 和 27B 两种参 数,与上一代相比性能大幅度提升,但部署要求大幅度下降,只需一块 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPU 或 TPU 主机就能使用。架构方面:基于上一代进行了 全方位改良,使用局部滑动窗口注意力和全局注意力,其中局部注意力层的滑动 窗口大小设置为 4096 个 tokens,全局注意力层的跨度设置为 8192 个 tokens。 训练数据方面:Gemma 2 的 27B 模型使用了 13 万亿 tokens 的英文数据进行训 练, ...
新股覆盖研究:科力装备
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-28 08:00
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for Keliy Equipment (301552 SZ) [2][3] Core Views - Keliy Equipment is a leading supplier of automotive glass assembly components, deeply integrated with Fuyao Glass, the domestic leader and global top-four player in the automotive glass industry [32] - The company has rapidly expanded its presence in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with NEV-related revenue growing from 68 02 million yuan in 2021 to 166 90 million yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 61 68% and 51 76% in 2022 and 2023 respectively [33] - Keliy Equipment's global and domestic market shares in automotive glass assembly components reached 5 57% and 14 49% respectively in 2023 [32] Financial Performance - Keliy Equipment achieved revenues of 293 million yuan, 405 7 million yuan, and 487 8 million yuan in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, with YoY growth rates of 67 33%, 38 44%, and 20 24% [19] - Net profits attributable to the parent company were 60 7 million yuan, 116 3 million yuan, and 137 1 million yuan for the same periods, with YoY growth rates of 34 91%, 91 52%, and 17 86% [19] - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 128 million yuan, a 37 23% YoY increase, and net profit of 36 million yuan, a 60 93% YoY increase [19] Industry Overview - The global automotive glass market is highly concentrated, with the top four players (Fuyao Glass, AGC, NSG, and Saint-Gobain) accounting for over 75% of the market share [26] - Fuyao Glass holds a 28% global market share and a 69% domestic market share in China [26] - The global automotive glass assembly components market is estimated to reach 7 611 billion yuan in 2023, with the domestic market projected at 2 793 billion yuan [31] Competitive Landscape - Keliy Equipment's revenue scale is below the industry average of 1 186 billion yuan, but its gross profit margin of 42 72% exceeds the industry average of 28 56% [40] - Comparable companies include Zhaomin Technology, Zhejiang Xiantong, Xingyuan Zhuomai, and Haida Shares, though their product applications differ significantly from Keliy Equipment [40] IPO Projects - Keliy Equipment plans to invest 256 6 million yuan in an intelligent production project for automotive glass assembly components, with an expected post-tax internal rate of return of 21 55% and a payback period of 6 63 years [37] - The company will also invest 44 24 million yuan in a new energy vehicle parts R&D center [37] Growth Prospects - For H1 2024, Keliy Equipment forecasts revenue of 260 million to 290 million yuan, a YoY increase of 26 23% to 40 80%, and net profit of 72 million to 80 million yuan, a YoY increase of 23 47% to 37 19% [39]
新股探寻(乔锋智能、安乃达、键邦股份)
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-28 04:05
大家好欢迎参加华经星谷星谷探寻第47期乔峰智能安乃达建盟股份电话会议目前所有参会者均处于静状态下面开始播报面子声明声明播报完毕后就将老师 本次会议为华经证券客户开发设计在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险 本次会议内容的知识产权仅为华经证券所有未经华经证券事先书面许可任何机构和或个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、发布或引用会议全部或部分内容亦不得从未经华经证券书面授权的任何机构、个人或其运营的媒体平台接收、翻版、复制或引用会议的全部或部分内容 不得制作会议纪要对外发送擅自制作会议纪要引起不当传播的后果自负版权所有 违者必究 各位领导大家早上好我是华金证券新股首席理会感谢大家来参加我们新股探寻系列线上汇报的第47期的一个汇报了今天就要给大家汇报三个标的啊然后乔峰智能安乃达还有建盟股份 然后今天就用比较简短的这个给大家汇报一下即将上市的这三个标的然后跟之前一样就是如果需要更为深入的去了解相关的公司我们是欢迎各位领导可以跟我们去联系那我废话少说现在我们给大家先说第一个标的乔峰智能 乔峰智能这家公司是比较典型的国内的这个疏控机床设 ...