证 业 究 报 究 预计将达到 1.5 万亿 元，到 2035 年有望达到 3.5 万亿 元，市场空间广阔，低空经济有望迎来快速发展期。 行 2024 年 12 月 29 日 告 证券研究报告 ▌ 投资建议 ▌ 风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|----------|--------------------|-------|-------|-------|---------------------------------------------|-------|-------|----------| | 公司代码 名称 | | 2024-12-29 \n股价 | | | | EPS PE \n2023 2024E 2025E 2023 2024E 2025E | | | 投资评级 | | 000801.SZ | 四川九洲 | 15.30 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 76.50 | 61.20 | 46.36 | 买入 | | 001696.SZ | 宗申动力 ...

1.行情跟踪-行业月度涨跌幅 资料来源：WIND，华鑫证券研究所 最近一周跌幅最小的子板块为医疗器械，跌幅0.63%（相对沪深300：-1.99%）；跌幅最大的为医疗服务，跌幅3.70%（相 对沪深300：-5.06%）。 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 近一周（2024/12/22-2024/12/28），涨幅最大的是和铂医药-B、东阳光、景峰医药；跌幅最大的是莱美药业、悦 康药业、创新医疗。 1.行情跟踪-子行业相对估值 资料来源：WIND，华鑫证券研究所 医药生物行业最近1月跌幅为2.74% ，跑输沪深300指数4.63个百分点 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 医药生物行业估值低于历史五年平均 20 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 用户到道 资料来源：政府文件，华鑫证券研究所 5 . 近 期 行 业 要 闻 梳 理 12月27日 近日，专注于开发靶向蛋白质降解（TPD）疗法的生物技术公司Ubix Therapeutics宣布，其已通过Pre-IPO轮吸引了价值 257亿韩元的投资。 12月25日，中国国家药监局药品审评中心（CDE）官网公示，勃 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The domestic passenger car industry is expected to evolve towards higher levels of intelligence, with advanced driving penetration rates anticipated to rise rapidly. As of November 2024, the penetration rate for L2 and above reached 54.5%, with L3 level intelligent driving expected to be implemented quickly [4][18]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy combined with the year-end automotive consumption peak, suggesting that the high prosperity of the automotive market will continue [5]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, particularly those with deep collaborations with Huawei, such as Seres, JAC Motors, and BAIC Blue Valley [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 3.9%, a 3-month increase of 15.5%, and a 12-month increase of 18.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Complete vehicles: Focus on Seres, JAC Motors, and BAIC Blue Valley, which have strong ties with Huawei [6]. 2. Auto parts: The report highlights growth opportunities in various segments, including lightweight materials, interior and exterior parts, and smart vehicles [8]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for several companies, with a focus on their expected performance in the coming years. For instance, Seres is projected to have significant growth potential [10][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [26][27]. Core Insights - The market for electric vehicles (EVs) is showing strong growth, with Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) accounting for 61.0% of total new energy vehicle sales, while Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHVs) have decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 39.0%. BEV sales reached 1.068 million units, surpassing the previous record of 983,000 units in December 2023 [6]. - The report highlights that November saw significant growth in new car sales in the U.S., with 1.364 million units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% and a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [7]. - The report indicates that the automotive market in China continues to thrive, with November new car sales reaching 2.583 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [24]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector has shown a relative performance increase of 3.9% over the past month, 15.5% over the past three months, and 18.8% over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 index which recorded increases of 1.6%, 7.5%, and 16.0% respectively [1]. Sales and Market Trends - In November, the total sales of new energy vehicles in major countries reached 1.75 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.0% and a month-on-month increase of 9.1%, achieving a historical high [23]. - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to November reached 13.456 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, accounting for 23.7% of total vehicle sales [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with deep collaborations with Huawei, such as Seres and JAC Motors, as well as on automotive parts manufacturers that are expected to benefit from the restructuring of the supply chain and technological changes [26]. - Specific sectors to watch include lightweight components, interior and exterior parts, and smart automotive technologies, with recommended companies including Wencan, Meilixin, and Huayang Group [26].

行 2024 年 12 月 29 日 括，（1）整车：建议关注与华为有深度合作的赛力斯、江淮 ▌ 风险提示 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究（注：未评级公司盈利预测取自万得一致预期） 证券研究报告 张智策：武汉大学本科，哥伦比亚大学硕士，2024 年加入华鑫证券。2 年华为 汽车业务工作经验，主要负责智选车型战略规划及相关竞品分析。 本报告署名分析师具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为 证券分析师，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确 地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推 荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

证 2024 年 12 月 29 日 报 告 行 究 全球科技盛会CES 2025 开幕在即,DeepSeek-V3 开启普惠 AGI 新篇章 推荐(维持) 投资要点 行业相对表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 ▌算力：算力租赁价格平稳，CES 2025 有望引领全 球消费电子新潮 表现 1M 3M 12M 计算机(申万) 7.5 38.5 1.6 沪深 300 -3.2 14.9 8.5 研 究 —计算机行业周报 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 市场表现 (%) 计算机 沪深300 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 相关研究 1、《计算机行业点评报告：OpenAI day2 更新发布，强化微调计划扩 展》2024-12-24 2、《计算机行业点评报告：OpenAI day1 更 新 发 布 ， 新 产 品 o1 与 ChatGPTPro 面世》2024-12-24 3、《计算机行业点评报告：OpenAI day4 更新发布，Canvas 与 ChatGPT 深度整合》2024-12-24 业 本周算力租赁价格保持平稳。具体来看，显卡配 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as 科大讯飞 (iFlytek), 寒武纪 (Cambricon), and 鼎通科技 (DingTong Technology) with expected price increases of over 20% [65][68]. Core Insights - CES 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal event for global consumer electronics, showcasing advancements in AI applications and technologies [6][87]. - The launch of DeepSeek-V3 has generated significant industry interest, demonstrating superior performance in various benchmarks compared to leading models [82][93]. - The AI computing sector is expected to continue its growth, with a focus on domestic computing power and AI applications, particularly in areas like AI PCs and smart driving [10][72]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer industry has shown a performance increase of 7.5% over the past month, contrasting with a decline of 3.2% in the CSI 300 index [106]. Computing Power Dynamics - The rental prices for computing power have remained stable, with specific configurations such as A100-40G priced at 28.64 CNY/hour on Tencent Cloud and 31.58 CNY/hour on Alibaba Cloud [101][107]. AI Application Dynamics - Discord's search traffic increased by 5.40% week-on-week, indicating growing interest in AI applications [121]. - The launch of DeepSeek-V3 has positioned it as a leading model in performance metrics, significantly enhancing user experience with a threefold increase in generation speed [94][93]. AI Financing Trends - The companies 阶跃星辰 (Step Star) and Cursor have secured significant funding, with amounts reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, indicating robust investment interest in AI technologies [86][129]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for AI computing and applications, emphasizing the importance of monitoring developments in the sector [10][72].

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程深度报告 直面低利率时代的挑战（上篇）：基于多 空风险平价的华鑫量化大类资产全天候 多元资产2025年度策略 报告日期：2024年12月29日 ◼ 分析师：吕思江 ◼ SAC编号：S1050522030001 ◼ 联系人：刘新源 ◼ 联系人：刘新源 ◼ SAC编号：S1050123100011 ◼ SAC编号：S1050123100011 投 资 要 点 【1】：随着中国逐步进入低利率时代，从哪里寻找新的收益来源成为投资的核心难题。我们认为多资产配置 思路，叠加合理的使用杠杆，以及通过多空方式投资于因子溢价，从海外经验来看是一条可行道路。全天候策略 的核心是超越对经济形式和市场环境的单一预测模式，通过合理的资产配置，保障在各种复杂的市场条件下均能 收获相对稳定的收益。该策略在定量上基于风险平价的理念，根据四类资产：商品、权益、债券、（美股，如国 内版可不加入）的风险特征和收益预测来分配权重，动态调整构建能够在不同市场周期中获利的"全天候"策略 组合。本文是该思路的上篇，主要使用期货合约落地，优势是杠杆灵活，更接近"风险平价"的本质，劣势是不 便于纳入海外资产，以及权益和债券的颗 ...

调入：养殖、医药。 调出：传媒、交运。 行业：电力设备新能源、食品饮料、军工、（煤炭、电力）、（电子、医药）、（银 行、养殖）。 1.7、 每周首推 ETF 本周首推传媒 ETF（512980）和信息安全 ETF（159613）。 图表 3：近期周首推表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 2、 轮动框架介绍与组合绩效回顾 我们认为行业内基本面逻辑发生改变时，首先体现在高频行业数据的结果中。当市场 上有影响力的投资者捕获到上述信息变动时，会对这种信息做出响应。当市场对逻辑认可 时，"聪明钱"将流入该行业或个股。最终体现在当期正式财报中。 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 8 证券研究报告 华鑫证券 基于上述框架，我们在前文中，分别构建了： 1. 代表投资者观点变动的"财报预期"因子 2. 代表聪明钱交易行为的"与鲸同游复合资金流因子" 用于行业比较和构建轮动策略。 PMS 中我们展示相对于沪深 300 的收益率，长期累计超额收益显著。另外我们计算与鲸 同游组合相较于行业等权基准超额情况： ⚫ "与鲸同游"行业轮动组合上周绝对收益 1.00%相对收益 0.41%。 图表 4：行业比较框架梳理 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating to the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leader in the smart interactive display industry, with significant growth potential driven by the introduction of AI glasses [20]. - The company achieved a revenue of 11.391 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.45% [20]. - The company is actively embracing technological changes and increasing R&D investments, showcasing strong growth momentum and good growth potential [20]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 16.023 billion yuan, 18.378 billion yuan, and 20.801 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.26 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 2.06 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22, 16, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [20].