Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618 HK) [4] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 2604 billion RMB (YoY +5%, QoQ -11%), slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.2 billion RMB (YoY +24%, QoQ -9%), significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [4][15] - The company has repurchased $3.6 billion worth of shares as of September 30, 2024, with a new share repurchase plan allowing up to $5 billion in buybacks by August 2027 [4] Business Performance JD Retail - JD Retail revenue grew 6% YoY to 2250 billion RMB in Q3 2024, driven by increased active users and order volume [6] - The "Spring Dawn Plan" upgrade introduced 15 new initiatives, including traffic support and advertising subsidies, leading to over 20% YoY growth in third-party merchant transaction users and over 30% YoY growth in order volume [6] - Electronics category revenue grew 3% YoY, benefiting from national subsidy policies for trade-in programs [6] - Daily necessities category revenue grew 8% YoY, with supermarket and apparel categories achieving double-digit growth [6] JD Logistics - JD Logistics revenue reached 44.4 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +7%, QoQ flat) [9] - Operating profit margin improved by 4.0 percentage points YoY to 4.7% [9] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue grew 5.4% YoY to 20.7 billion RMB [9] - Other customer revenue grew 7.6% YoY to 23.7 billion RMB, driven by growth in express delivery and freight services [9] Financial Metrics - Gross profit was 45 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +16%, QoQ -2%), with a gross margin of 17.3% [17] - Operating profit was 12 billion RMB (YoY +29%, QoQ +15%), with an operating margin of 4.6% [17] - Net profit was 12.8 billion RMB (YoY +56%, QoQ -6%), with a net profit margin of 4.9% [17] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are raised to 11,399/12,075/12,737 billion RMB [24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected at 37.7/43.1/47.5 billion RMB [24] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 45/51.1/55.4 billion RMB, with Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 9/8/7X [24] - Target price is set at 164 RMB/177 HKD based on SOTP valuation, implying a target market cap of 523.1 billion RMB for 2025 [24][25] Market Performance - JD Group's stock price has shown significant outperformance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with 12-month returns of 28.7% compared to the index's 7.5% [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Home Depot (HD), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Home Depot's Q3 FY2024 performance exceeded market expectations, leading to an upward revision of its full-year guidance. The company reported sales of $40.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, while comparable sales decreased by 1.3% [1]. - The company anticipates a full-year sales growth of 4% year-over-year, an increase from the previous guidance of 2.5% to 3.5% [1]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the U.S. interest rate cuts on the real estate market, which is expected to boost demand for home improvement products [1]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Home Depot's Q3 FY2024 sales reached $40.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 6.6%. Comparable sales decreased by 1.3%, while net profit was $3.6 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year. The diluted EPS was $3.67, a decrease of 3.7% year-over-year [1]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) was 33.4%, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year, and the operating profit margin (OPM) was 13.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-over-year [1]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. construction spending continues to show a year-over-year growth trend, with new home sales improving in the July-September period [1]. - The company expects a recovery in real estate demand due to the interest rate cuts, which will likely drive sales growth in home improvement products [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2026 are $158.1 billion, $166.4 billion, and $174.7 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 4%, 5%, and 5% [1]. - The report forecasts net profits of $15.1 billion, $15.6 billion, and $16.3 billion for FY2024 to FY2026, with growth rates of -1%, +4%, and +4% [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [1] Core Views - Alibaba's commercialization strategy is steadily advancing, focusing on high-quality GMV growth, with core business showing robust growth [4][39] - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY2025Q2, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5% [2][12] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 47.3 billion yuan, down 4% year-over-year [2][12] Financial Performance Summary - **Overall Performance**: For FY2025Q2, Alibaba achieved a net profit of 43.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63% year-over-year, and a 81% increase quarter-over-quarter [2][12][13] - **Segment Performance**: - **Taobao Group**: Revenue reached 99 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 1%. The adjusted EBITA was 44.6 billion yuan, with an EBITA margin of 45% [4][39] - **International Digital Commerce Group**: Revenue grew by 29% year-over-year to 31.7 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in cross-border business [44] - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Revenue increased by 7% year-over-year to 29.6 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for five consecutive quarters [49] - **Profitability Metrics**: The operating profit margin was 14.9%, and the net profit margin was 18.4% for FY2025Q2 [36] Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027, estimating revenues of 1,005.9 billion yuan, 1,110.6 billion yuan, and 1,222.8 billion yuan respectively [51] - The target market capitalization for FY2025 is set at 2,055.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 107 yuan per share [51][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products starting December 1 will increase export costs and may impact the export volume of aluminum processing companies [8] - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a tight supply of bauxite, which is expected to support the prices of alumina [14][17] - The overall demand for aluminum remains stable, with some recovery in downstream orders, particularly in the appliance sector [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of November 15, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2656.5 per ton, up $29.5 from the previous week, and up 19.4% year-on-year [25] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 20780.0 CNY per ton, down 910.0 CNY from the previous week, but up 9.6% year-on-year [25] 2. Production - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is 837,000 tons, down slightly from the previous week but up 3.3% year-on-year [59] - The weekly production of alumina is 1.647 million tons, up 0.9% from the previous week and up 4.9% year-on-year [59] 3. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable, with some companies undergoing maintenance, limiting supply [9] - The demand from downstream sectors is stable, with some companies increasing production to meet orders [10] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the industry include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][6][44]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand is currently weak during the off-season, but there is a focus on stocking up for the Q4 peak season. It emphasizes the potential for recovery in the food and beverage sector due to recent policy implementations aimed at stimulating consumption and improving macroeconomic conditions [1][6][44]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 3.56% in the week of November 11-15, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 3.52%. Among sub-sectors, beer had the smallest decline at 1.73%, while soft drinks and meat products fell by 2.21% and 2.53%, respectively [3][28]. - In October 2024, the total retail sales in China reached 4.54 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, primarily driven by cosmetics, sports and entertainment products, and home appliances [2][6]. Key Recommendations - For the liquor segment, the report recommends stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others, suggesting a focus on brands that maintain stable pricing amid promotional activities [6][44]. - In the consumer goods category, recommended stocks include Bairun, Three Squirrels, Jin Zai Foods, and others, with a focus on products with gifting attributes and those relevant to the upcoming Spring Festival [6][44]. Market Performance - The report notes that the liquor industry has been under pressure due to macroeconomic demand expectations, but recent policies are expected to enhance market confidence and lead to a valuation recovery in the liquor sector [2][6][44]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage sector is currently at 21.87x, indicating a mid-range position among primary industries, with other liquor categories leading in valuation [28][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yangnong Chemical (600486) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, demonstrating resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with a focus on the ramp-up of the Huludao project [2][10] - The company is expected to see significant growth driven by the Huludao project, with projected revenues of 11.4 billion, 13.7 billion, and 15.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, and net profits of 1.269 billion, 1.682 billion, and 1.969 billion yuan for the same years [10][21] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 263 million yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [2][3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 23.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.59 percentage points year-on-year to 11.3% [2][3] - The original drug segment generated revenue of 1.497 billion yuan in Q3, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the formulation segment saw a revenue decline of 5% year-on-year [3][10] Project Development - The Huludao project is progressing well, with the first phase of construction completed and trial production of several products underway [8][10] - The project is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and balance its operations geographically [8][10] Market Conditions - The report notes that pesticide prices have fallen to historical lows, indicating a potential for recovery in industry demand [4][5] - The company’s stock has shown a performance of -1.3% over the past month, but a 13.8% increase over the last three months [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Geely Automobile [1][9] Core Views - Geely Automobile reported a total revenue of 167.68 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.01%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 13.05 billion RMB, up 358.48% year-on-year, with total sales of 1.4897 million vehicles, a 32.09% increase year-on-year [3][9] - The company has increased its stake in Zeekr to 62.8% by acquiring an additional 11.3% of shares, while Zeekr has acquired 51% of Lynk & Co [3][8] - Geely's Q3 2024 performance showed a revenue of 60.38 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 20.50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.80%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.455 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 92.40% [5][9] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2024, Geely's average revenue per vehicle (ASP) was 113,100 RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 0.44 thousand RMB and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.15 thousand RMB. The gross margin for Q3 was 15.58%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.14 percentage points [5][9] - The company’s sales, administrative, and financial expense ratios were 4.47%, 5.82%, and -0.19% respectively, indicating a significant reduction in sales and administrative expense ratios year-on-year [5][9] Sales Performance - Geely's Q3 2024 sales reached 534,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.24%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 225,700 units, with a year-on-year increase of 58.92% [5][9] - The new energy penetration rate reached 42.26%, up 11.48 percentage points year-on-year [5][9] Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Lynk & Co by Zeekr is expected to enhance resource integration and brand positioning, improving overall operational efficiency and market expansion capabilities [8][9] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 203.3 billion RMB, 222.4 billion RMB, and 233.3 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 16.03 billion RMB, 11.96 billion RMB, and 15.21 billion RMB [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a trend towards increased intelligence and premium positioning, as evidenced by the recent Guangzhou Auto Show showcasing 1171 vehicles, including 72 new models from domestic brands [24][28] - The strategic restructuring of Geely Holding, which involves increasing its stake in Zeekr and acquiring control of Lynk & Co, is expected to enhance competitive positioning and operational efficiency [3][22] - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies and new vehicle launches on the automotive market, predicting continued improvement in retail sales [28] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Geely Holding is restructuring its ownership of Zeekr and Lynk & Co, aiming for Zeekr to hold a 51% stake in Lynk & Co through a series of transactions totaling approximately 93.67 billion yuan [3][22] - The Guangzhou Auto Show emphasizes the acceleration of smart and high-end vehicle development among domestic brands, with significant new product launches [24][28] Market Performance - From November 11 to November 15, the automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index declining by only 2.5% compared to a 3.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite [31] - The report notes that during the same period, several key automotive stocks, including Li Auto and Xpeng, experienced significant declines, with Li Auto down 8.8% and Xpeng down 13.5% [31] Industry Indicators - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive retail market, driven by new vehicle launches and supportive policies, suggesting that the overall consumption environment is improving [28] - The report recommends focusing on various segments within the automotive industry, including passenger vehicles, components, and commercial vehicles, highlighting specific companies that are expected to benefit from the market recovery [6][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is driven by technological innovation and operational excellence, positioning itself as a global chemical giant with high technology and low cost as its competitive advantages [2] - Short-term profitability is influenced by product price spreads, while long-term growth is driven by the company's ability to continuously evolve and launch milestone products [3] - The company's MDI business has proven its strength, and future projects will be key to its continued growth [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company's Q4 2024 price spread index averaged 76.01, up 2.76 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 13.27th percentile historically [4] - Q4 2024 net profit is estimated at 3.9 billion yuan, with the polyurethane segment's price spread index at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024 [4] - The petrochemical segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at a historical low of 60.57, down 4.79 from Q3 2024 [4] - The new materials segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 37.74, down 0.12 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 10.04th percentile historically [4] Project Progress - The company's 150,000-ton/year MDI technical renovation and expansion project in Fujian has completed its first environmental impact assessment [5] - The company's 10,000-ton/year vanillin industrial chain project has entered the environmental impact report review stage [6] - The company's 10,000-ton/year lithium iron phosphate project has completed its first environmental impact assessment [8] MDI Market Analysis - In October 2024, the average price of pure MDI was 18,248 yuan/ton, down 11.67% year-on-year and 0.90% month-on-month [9] - The price spread between pure MDI and coal/benzene was 12,193 yuan/ton in October 2024, down 13.49% year-on-year but up 2.71% month-on-month [9] - Overseas MDI plants have experienced frequent unplanned shutdowns, with domestic MDI exports increasing by 5.69% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024 [10] Downstream Demand - Domestic refrigerator production in September 2024 increased by 9.0% year-on-year, while exports rose by 9.7% [11] - Domestic car production in October 2024 increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with sales up 7.0% [11] - New housing construction area in September 2024 decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, while cumulative construction area fell by 12.2% [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at 190.6/230.5/261.8 billion yuan, with net profits of 15.0/20.4/26.0 billion yuan [12] - The company's PE ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are estimated at 16x, 12x, and 9x, respectively [14] Polyurethane Segment - The polyurethane segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 22.14th percentile historically [71] - The MDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 127.53, up 12.06 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 30.41th percentile historically [71] TDI Segment - The TDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 43.37, down 1.56 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 6.81th percentile historically [129]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in its operating performance, with a notable increase in production capacity utilization and sales growth driven by new projects [3][5] - The company is actively adjusting its product and market structure in response to industry supply-demand imbalances and overcapacity [2][5] - The integration of cellulose ether and plant capsule production provides a competitive advantage, positioning the company to benefit from ongoing industry demand recovery [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 74 million yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year and 5.4% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The gross profit margin was 29.2%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 1.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 51.26 million yuan, enhancing shareholder returns [4] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.96 billion yuan, 2.31 billion yuan, and 2.69 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 266 million yuan, 356 million yuan, and 468 million yuan [9][12] - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 26% and 21% for 2024, and 18% and 34% for 2025, respectively [9][12] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 18.53 for 2024, 13.87 for 2025, and 10.55 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9][12]