Group 1 - Home Depot's Q3 performance exceeded expectations with a sales increase of 6.6% year-on-year, reaching $40.2 billion, while operating profit was $5.4 billion, and net profit was $3.6 billion [13] - On Holding AG reported a record high Q3 sales of 635.8 million Swiss francs, a 32.3% year-on-year increase, driven by a 49.8% growth in DTC channel sales [12] - CAVA's profit attributable to shareholders surged by 360.33% year-on-year to $51.7 million, with total revenue increasing by 33.5% to $736 million [13] Group 2 - The global silicon wafer shipment volume increased by 6.8% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 3,214 million square inches [20] - The Chinese new energy vehicle production surpassed 10 million units for the first time, marking a 4.3% increase compared to the previous year [25] - The coal production in October 2024 was 410 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while coal imports rose by 28.5% to 46.25 million tons [52][56] Group 3 - The gaming sector showed strong growth, with NetEase's Q3 gaming revenue reaching 20.9 billion yuan, despite a 4.2% year-on-year decline [39] - Bilibili achieved a revenue of 7.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024, marking a 26% year-on-year increase and its first quarterly profit since going public [44] - The aluminum and copper markets are expected to face limited downside due to ongoing support from the US economy and China's growth policies [32]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the aluminum industry Core Insights - The raw material supply is not a bottleneck for electrolytic aluminum production, with increasing price volatility due to higher import concentration of bauxite in China [6][38] - Global bauxite reserves are abundant but concentrated in a few countries, with Guinea, Vietnam, Australia, and Brazil holding 65% of the total reserves as of 2023 [6][16] - China's reliance on imported bauxite has increased, with a foreign dependency rate reaching 63.1% in 2024, primarily from Guinea [38][39] - The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum in China is expected to remain relatively stable, with short-term supply influenced by precipitation in the southwestern region [7][8] - Demand for aluminum in construction remains resilient, with growth expected in manufacturing and renewable energy sectors, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum in 2024 [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Aluminum Industry Chain - The aluminum industry chain includes upstream mining and smelting (bauxite mining and alumina production), midstream electrolytic aluminum smelting, and downstream aluminum processing and consumption [13][14] 2. Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Global bauxite production is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1% from 2023 to 2030, with Guinea and Indonesia being the main contributors [6][33] - The report highlights that the production capacity of alumina is not a bottleneck for electrolytic aluminum production, with significant new capacities expected in both domestic and overseas markets [7][46] 3. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing of electrolytic aluminum is primarily influenced by inventory levels, with a correlation observed between aluminum and copper prices during periods of weak supply-demand dynamics [8] - The CIF price of bauxite is highly sensitive to shipping costs, which are affected by port facilities and transportation infrastructure [8] 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Guinea will continue to be a major source of bauxite production growth, while Indonesia's bauxite export restrictions may be reconsidered in the future [24][29] - The overall outlook for the aluminum industry remains cautiously optimistic, with supply-demand dynamics expected to stabilize in the near term [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1] Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2024 revenue reached 167.2 billion RMB, representing an 8% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase. Operating profit was 53.3 billion RMB, up 20% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 53.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 47% year-over-year increase and a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase [1][11][18] - The gaming revenue accelerated with a 13% year-over-year growth, driven by both domestic (14%) and international (9%) markets. The deferred revenue reached a record high, indicating strong future revenue potential [30][31] - The marketing services business grew by 17% year-over-year, supported by demand for advertising on platforms like WeChat and mini-programs, demonstrating resilience in the advertising sector despite macroeconomic pressures [47][48] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 overall gross margin increased by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year, remaining stable quarter-over-quarter. Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 19% year-over-year, while Non-IFRS net profit increased by 33% to 59.8 billion RMB [18][22] - Free cash flow for the quarter was 58.5 billion RMB, significantly up from 40.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [27] Business Segments Value-Added Services - Gaming revenue for Q3 2024 was 51.8 billion RMB, accounting for 31% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 13%. The deferred revenue balance reached 113.1 billion RMB, a 23% increase year-over-year [30][31] - The social network segment reported a 4% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by sales of virtual goods and subscription services [41] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue increased to 30 billion RMB, a 17% year-over-year growth, driven by demand for video ads and mini-programs [47] - The video account advertising revenue saw over 60% year-over-year growth, indicating strong demand and potential for further monetization [48] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services grew by 2% year-over-year to 53.1 billion RMB, with growth in wealth management services offsetting declines in payment services due to weak consumer spending [49] - The cloud business is expected to continue growing, supported by the launch of new AI models and improved operational efficiencies [49][52] Shareholder Returns - Tencent plans to repurchase over 100 billion HKD worth of shares in 2024, which, along with cash dividends, is expected to provide strong support for the stock price [53] Earnings Forecast - The report projects revenues for FY2024-2026 to be 654.5 billion RMB, 699.1 billion RMB, and 747.9 billion RMB respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits of 223.3 billion RMB, 251.8 billion RMB, and 275 billion RMB [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1]. Core Views - The global chemical industry is currently experiencing a bottoming out phase, with European chemical plants facing the highest costs globally. Due to rising costs and aging equipment, there are signs of accelerated capacity exit in Europe. Meanwhile, domestic capacity additions in China are reaching their peak, and future capital expenditures are expected to decline [1]. - Domestic demand in China is anticipated to continue recovering, with leading companies in the country solidifying their cost and efficiency advantages while expanding capacity. This expansion is expected to positively impact performance, as leading firms enter a long-term upward performance cycle [1]. - The report highlights four key investment opportunities: low-cost expansion, improving industry conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields [4][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Observation - The chemical industry is in a long-term growth phase, with a focus on the recovery of domestic demand and the performance of leading companies [3]. - The chemical industry index from Guohai Securities is at 95.73, a decrease of 0.41 from the previous week [2]. 2. Data Tracking - Key products such as butanol and MDI have seen price fluctuations, with butanol prices rising due to supply constraints and strong downstream demand [9][10]. - The report notes specific price changes for various chemicals, including a rise in the price of R22 refrigerant to 32,000 RMB/ton, and a decrease in titanium dioxide prices to 14,660 RMB/ton [16][21]. 3. Focus on Key Stocks - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in various segments, including Wanhua Chemical, Luyuan Tire, and others, which are expected to benefit from low-cost expansions and improving market conditions [1][4]. - Specific stocks are highlighted with their current prices and investment ratings, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [48].

Core Views - In the long term, the space for continued decline in internationally priced commodities such as copper, aluminum, and crude oil is relatively limited, supported by the soft landing or non-landing of the US economy and ongoing growth stabilization policies in China [2] - The exchange rate aspect shows that the USD/CNY is approaching 7.3 again, which may enhance the motivation for "expectation management" by the central bank and regulatory agencies [3] - In the black metal sector, weak demand from the real estate construction side and the upcoming rainy season in Brazil and Australia may lead to a continued weak fluctuation in rebar and iron ore prices [4] - In the US stock market, the Trump trade is driving USD appreciation, and tax cut expectations may continue to benefit US stocks; in the A-share market, the Fed's shift from dovish to hawkish means limited monetary easing space for China's central bank, leading to potential short-term A-share pullbacks, with long-term performance depending on fiscal and industrial incremental policies [5] - For precious metals, it is expected that gold may have overreacted to the Fed's hawkish turn in the short term, but long-term gold prices may still benefit from expectations of secondary inflation in the US, presenting a long-term buying opportunity during this round of gold price adjustments [6] Historical Performance Review - In the past month, major asset performances showed Brent crude oil down by 9.3%, rebar down by 9.1%, and LME copper down by 7.4%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index also experienced declines [10] - The A-share and US stock markets saw significant gains, with A-shares benefiting from a series of positive policies, while commodities faced larger declines [11] Exchange Rate and Precious Metals - The Trump victory has led to a renewed upward trend in USD/CNY, breaking above 7.2, with expectations of further depreciation pressure on the RMB if it surpasses 7.3 [16] - The short-term reaction of gold prices to the Fed's hawkish stance has been negative, but long-term prospects remain positive due to potential secondary inflation in the US [22] Black Metals - The weak demand in the real estate sector and the upcoming rainy seasons in Brazil and Australia are expected to keep iron ore prices under pressure, despite potential short-term relief from seasonal factors [53] Crude Oil - The core reasons for the decline in oil prices in October and November include the IEA's downward revision of global oil demand expectations and the Fed's tapering of rate cuts, with WTI crude oil prices falling below $70 per barrel [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a steady increase in supply, with both production and imports of raw coal accelerating year-on-year. In October 2024, the industrial raw coal output reached 410 million tons, a 4.6% increase compared to the previous year, while coal imports rose by 28.5% to 46.25 million tons [2][85] - The demand side shows a slowdown in thermal power generation growth, with a reported increase of only 1.8% year-on-year in October 2024, significantly down from previous months [3][87] - The overall coal supply growth is estimated at 2.3% when considering both domestic production and imports [86] Supply Summary - In October 2024, the average daily output of industrial raw coal was 13.28 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 530,000 tons but a year-on-year increase of 740,000 tons [1][77] - Major coal companies reported varied production results: China Shenhua produced 27.6 million tons (+0.4%), Shaanxi Coal and Energy produced 13.75 million tons (-5.2%), and China Coal Energy produced 11.34 million tons (+2.3%) [81] Demand Summary - The industrial electricity generation in October 2024 was 731 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, but a significant slowdown compared to previous months [3][87] - The steel industry shows a positive trend with pig iron production turning positive at 70.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [96] Inventory Summary - In October 2024, the overall inventory of thermal coal increased, indicating a supply surplus. The inventory at thermal coal production enterprises rose by 140,000 tons to 14.1 million tons [9][12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on coal companies with high cash flow and profitability, maintaining a positive outlook for the coal mining sector. Key companies to watch include Yancoal Energy, Guanghui Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved its first quarterly profit since going public, with a revenue of 7.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 26% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 19% [1][3] - The mobile gaming segment saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 84% year-over-year to 1.823 billion yuan, driven by the success of the exclusive game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [3] - The advertising business also performed well, with revenue growing by 28% year-over-year to 2.094 billion yuan, supported by improved advertising products and efficiency [3][5] Summary by Sections Operating Performance - Monthly Active Users (MAU) grew by 2% year-over-year to 348 million, while Daily Active Users (DAU) increased by 4% to 107 million [3] - User engagement metrics improved, with average daily usage time rising from 100 minutes to 106 minutes, and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) increasing by 23% to 21 yuan [3] Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 34.9%, up 9.9 percentage points year-over-year and 4.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 240 million yuan, a significant improvement from a loss of 860 million yuan in Q3 2023 [3] Mobile Gaming Business - The exclusive game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" ranked in the top three of the iOS game sales chart for three consecutive seasons, contributing to the mobile gaming revenue surge [3] Value-Added Services - Revenue from value-added services increased by 9% year-over-year to 2.821 billion yuan, driven by growth in live streaming and other services [3] Advertising Business - The advertising revenue growth was primarily attributed to enhancements in advertising products and increased efficiency, with significant contributions from the gaming, e-commerce, and automotive sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 26.21 billion yuan for Q3 2024, showing a year-over-year decline of 3.9% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.538 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-over-year and down 3.3% quarter-over-quarter [1][3] - The gaming segment showed strong growth, with revenue from PC games increasing by 29% year-over-year, while mobile games experienced a decline of 10% due to base effects. The company is set to release several new titles, which are expected to drive future growth [3][7] - The company’s subsidiary, Youdao, achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in Q3 2024, marking a year-over-year growth of 2.2% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 19.0%, with significant improvements in profitability [3][8] - NetEase Cloud Music reported a revenue of 2 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.3% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.0%, with a notable improvement in gross margin [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 62.9%, with a slight year-over-year increase of 0.6 percentage points. The sales expense ratio was 14.5%, the R&D expense ratio was 16.9%, and the management expense ratio was 4.2% [3] - The total market capitalization is approximately 431.81 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of the same amount [3] - The company’s revenue projections for FY2024-2026 are estimated at 104.3 billion, 108.3 billion, and 115.3 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 31.6 billion, 33 billion, and 36.1 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid downstream demand growth. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials as a foundational industry that supports other sectors, including electronic information, new energy, biotechnology, and energy conservation and environmental protection [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. New Materials Industry Dynamics 1.1 Electronic Information Sector - The report highlights a focus on semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [3]. - According to SEMI, global silicon wafer shipments increased by 5.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, reaching 3,214 million square inches, a 6.8% increase year-on-year [3][32]. - Demand for advanced wafers for artificial intelligence remains strong, while demand for automotive and industrial silicon wafers is weak [3][32]. 1.2 Aerospace Sector - The report focuses on PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [3]. 1.3 New Energy Sector - Key areas of interest include photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [7]. - China's annual production of new energy vehicles has surpassed 10 million units for the first time, with expectations to exceed 12 million by the end of the year [8]. 1.4 Biotechnology Sector - The report emphasizes synthetic biology and scientific services [9]. - Invizyne Technologies, Inc. recently went public, raising $15 million, marking a significant development in the field of biomanufacturing [9]. 1.5 Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Focus areas include adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [10]. 2. Sector Data Tracking - The report tracks key companies and their earnings forecasts, highlighting several companies with "Buy" ratings based on their performance and future earnings projections [14]. 3. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The new materials sector is expected to benefit from downstream application catalysts, entering a favorable economic cycle, thus maintaining a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1]. Core Insights - The coal mining industry is expected to maintain a tight balance in the coming years, characterized by high asset quality, abundant cash flow, and continued high profitability, cash flow, barriers to entry, dividends, and safety margins [1]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the subsequent inventory depletion at ports, as electricity consumption at power plants is gradually increasing, which is expected to support coal prices [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The thermal coal market shows a slight decrease in port prices, with a focus on the subsequent increase in daily consumption at power plants [18]. - As of November 15, the Qinhuangdao port price for thermal coal (Q5500, Shanxi origin) was 837 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [19]. - The production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 1.14 percentage points week-on-week, with weekly production rising by 160,000 tons [28]. 2. Coking Coal - The overall supply of coking coal remains sufficient, with an increase in the import of Mongolian coal and a rise in port inventories [64]. - As of November 15, the price of main coking coal at the Jingtang port remained stable at 1640 CNY/ton [65]. - The average crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port increased by 98 trucks week-on-week, indicating a rise in supply [70]. 3. Coke - The production rate of coking plants has decreased, while iron water production has increased, but overall demand remains weak due to the seasonal downturn [64]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor steel prices and the inventory depletion of coking coal and coke [64]. 4. Hydropower Situation - The outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir has increased week-on-week, but the water level has decreased [58].