2024 年 10 月 29 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2024 年第 184 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 Q3 营收同比增速环比改善，成本优化下盈利能力同比提升--洽洽食品/休闲食品(002557/213408) 公司点评 三季度煤炭销量环比上升，业绩环比有提升--兖矿能源/煤炭开采(600188/217401) 公司点评 秋糖平淡，Q3 板块机构持仓环比下降--行业周报 降息如期而至，会议预期再添动力--行业周报 量减趋势边际改善，成本优化下业绩整体稳定--平煤股份/煤炭开采(601666/217401) 公司点评 2024Q3 营收利润同环比高增，盈利能力优化向上--星宇股份/汽车零部件(601799/212802) 公司点评 结构持续优化，费用管控良好--金徽酒/白酒Ⅱ(603919/213405) 公司点评 公司业绩稳健，国际业务成为增长"第二引擎"--威胜信息/通信设备(688100/217302) 科创板公司普通报告 三季度收入稳健增长，国产替代持续受益--华海诚科/半 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in power generation in Q3 2024, leading to overall performance improvements both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 9.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.82 billion yuan, also down by 5.0% year-on-year [3]. - The report highlights the company's coal business, which saw an increase in gross profit per ton due to higher coal prices, despite a decline in production and sales volume [4][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.20 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. Net profit for the same period was 650 million yuan, up 12.2% quarter-on-quarter and up 5.9% year-on-year [3][4]. - The average return on equity (ROE) was 12.76%, down by 2.70 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Coal Business - The company produced 13.88 million tons of coal in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with sales volume down by 9.5% [4]. - The average selling price of coal was 562 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 221 yuan per ton, up 4.8% year-on-year [4]. Power Generation - Total power generation for the first three quarters was 8.60 billion kWh, an increase of 16.1% year-on-year, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 85.9% in Q3 [4]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 0.40 yuan per kWh, down 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, but the revenue from the power business reached 1.50 billion yuan, up 78.9% quarter-on-quarter and 16.3% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 5%, 9%, and 16% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 12%, 7%, and 21% for the same years [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong position in the coal market and the expected stabilization of coal quality, which will enhance performance stability [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to increased income tax [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from increased investment in series and content production, which is anticipated to drive membership revenue growth [5][8] - The integration of AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) in content production is progressing well, with various applications already in place [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 33.2 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7.14%, and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 8.74% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.80 billion yuan, down 27.41% year-over-year and 35.95% quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.05%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points year-over-year, while the gross margin was 29.15%, down 6.67 percentage points year-over-year [3] Content Strategy - The company has solidified its leading position in variety shows, with 2.5 billion effective plays in Q3 2024, a year-over-year increase of 22% [4] - The company has a clear strategy for content production across three tiers: head, mid-tier, and customized member content [4] - The effective membership scale has exceeded 70 million, marking a new high, driven by strong content offerings and innovative member benefits [5] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 150.22 billion yuan, 166.47 billion yuan, and 179.95 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 18.11 billion yuan, 21.85 billion yuan, and 23.72 billion yuan [9][10] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with overseas downloads of its app increasing significantly [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown growth in coal production and sales, but revenue has been impacted by falling prices [1][3] - The coal business experienced a decline in revenue by 16% due to a 19% drop in average selling price [1][3] - The company is expected to achieve significant production growth in the coming years, with plans to increase coal production to approximately 140 million tons in 2024 [6][7] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 1066.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114.05 billion yuan, down 26.98% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of coal in the first three quarters was 683.5 yuan/ton, down 19% year-on-year [1][3] Coal Business - Coal production reached 105.81 million tons in the first three quarters, an increase of 9% year-on-year, while sales were 102.59 million tons, up 3.5% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price in Q3 was 656 yuan/ton, reflecting a 6% year-on-year decline [1] Cost Management - The average selling cost of coal decreased to 411 yuan/ton in the first three quarters, down 14% year-on-year, leading to an improvement in gross margin [1][4] - In Q3, the gross margin for the coal business was 42.4%, showing an increase compared to previous quarters [4] Chemical Business - The chemical products segment faced pressure with a production volume of 6.355 million tons, down 2.16% year-on-year, and sales of 5.697 million tons, down 3.4% year-on-year [1][4] - Despite the challenges, the unit gross margin for chemical products increased by 5.3% year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company has acquired significant coal resources and plans to enhance production capacity, targeting a coal output of 300 million tons annually within the next 5-10 years [6][7] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1483.7 billion yuan, 1570.7 billion yuan, and 1639.1 billion yuan respectively, with a slight decline expected in 2024 followed by growth in subsequent years [7][8]

2024 年 10 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 姚健 S0350522030001 yaoj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 杜先康 S0350523080003 duxk01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] Q3 收入同比高增，先进陶瓷材料国内领跑者 ——珂玛科技（301611）2024 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 珂玛科技 10 月 24 日发布 2024 年三季报：2024 年前三季度公司实现收 入 6.16 亿元，同比增长 74.65%；实现归母净利润 2.26 亿元，同比增长 295.42%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.20 亿元。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/10/28 Q3 收入及归母净利润同比高增。2024Q3 公司实现收入 2.32 亿元， 同比增长 95.11%，环比增长 3.48%；实现归母净利润 0.87 亿元， 同比增长 275.56%，环比减少 2.31%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.84 亿 元，环比减少 3.81%。 表现 1M 3M 12M 珂玛科技 121.0% 沪深 300 7.0% ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on market uncertainty, with expectations leaning towards a potential Trump victory influencing trading strategies [1][10]. - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year LPR to 3.10% and the 5-year LPR to 3.60%, marking the largest cut since 2019, which is expected to boost market confidence [1][10]. - The steel sector has shown mixed performance, with a 14.1% increase over the past month, but a 5.6% decline over the past year [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The U.S. jobless claims decreased to 227,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.897 million, indicating potential risks for rising unemployment rates [1]. - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. election, with significant implications for economic policies [1]. Industry Performance - The steel sector's performance over the past month is 14.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 16.3% [1]. - The report notes that the steel price is stabilizing in the short term, with expectations of fluctuations due to seasonal transitions [11]. Commodity Prices - Rebar prices have increased week-on-week, driven by improved macro expectations despite weak demand [11]. - Iron ore prices have also seen a week-on-week increase, influenced by the LPR cut and market sentiment [11]. - Coal prices are expected to remain stable, with winter demand anticipated to rise [12]. Individual Commodity Insights - Copper prices have weakened due to reduced expectations for a significant Fed rate cut and a strong dollar, with market sentiment turning cautious [12][13]. - Aluminum prices have risen due to increasing costs from alumina and supportive government policies [13]. - International oil prices have fluctuated, influenced by geopolitical risks and domestic monetary policy adjustments [13]. Market Tracking - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, while steel and coal sectors lagged [14][15]. - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the steel sector, with notable gains from companies like Jiugang Hongxing and Benxi Steel [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][6][27] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 2.19%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.02 percentage points [1][12] - The report highlights a decline in institutional holdings in the food and beverage sector, with a slight increase in the proportion of white liquor holdings [1][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term value in the white liquor sector, despite short-term pressures [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The food and beverage sector's performance for the week of October 21-25, 2024, showed a 2.19% increase, with other liquor categories leading at 7.37% [1][12] - Notable stock performances included Weilang Co. (+28.68%) and ST Jiajia (+27.63%), while Jinzai Food (-6.37%) and Anji Food (-4.09%) faced declines [1][12] Fund Holding Situation - The food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio decreased to 5.01%, while the white liquor segment saw an increase in its fund holding ratio [19][27] - The top three stocks in the white liquor sector for institutional accumulation were Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Laojiao, while the top three for reduction were Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu [19][27] Key Stocks and Logic - Recommended stocks in the white liquor sector include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, among others [4][6][27] - In the consumer goods segment, recommended stocks include Angel Yeast, Bairun Co., and Three Squirrels [6][27] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Guizhou Moutai's stock price is 1,559 with an EPS forecast of 68.63 for 2024, while Wuliangye is priced at 148 with an EPS forecast of 8.69 [28] - Other notable companies include Angel Yeast, Bairun Co., and Yili, all with positive investment ratings [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 3.509 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 383 million yuan, up 21.60% year-on-year and 8.96% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company benefits from increased sales from core independent customers, with notable sales growth from key clients such as Li Auto, Seres, and Chery, which saw quarter-on-quarter sales increases of 41%, 12%, and 14% respectively [2]. - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 19.94%, with a net margin of 10.91%, indicating a slight improvement in profitability despite a minor decline in gross margin compared to previous periods [2]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic automotive lighting enterprise, with ongoing projects in advanced lighting technologies and a growing customer base, including new energy vehicle clients [2][5]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.509 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.77% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.19%. The net profit was 383 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.60% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.96% [2]. - The company has a diverse customer base, including luxury brands and domestic manufacturers, which has contributed to its revenue growth [2]. Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin was 19.94%, with a net margin of 10.91%. The expense ratio improved to 8.12%, indicating better cost management [2]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 42.35 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 148.25 yuan [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 12.9 billion yuan, 15.9 billion yuan, and 19.2 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.484 billion yuan, 1.911 billion yuan, and 2.388 billion yuan [5][7]. - The projected EPS for the same years is 5.20 yuan, 6.69 yuan, and 8.36 yuan, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 28.54 to 17.74 over the forecast period [5][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown improvement in revenue growth year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a focus on cost optimization leading to enhanced profitability [2][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 47.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.26 billion yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 18.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.72%, and a net profit of 2.89 billion yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin improved significantly in Q3 2024, reaching 33.11%, an increase of 6.31 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and increased sales scale [4] - The sales and management expense ratios for Q3 2024 were 7.86% and 3.94%, respectively, showing a year-on-year optimization [4] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 15.57%, up 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [4] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month performance of 17.9% and a 3-month performance of 29.0% [2] - As of October 25, 2024, the stock price was 33.18 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 23.67-38.72 yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned for growth in the upcoming year, with expectations for strong performance during the New Year festival due to good channel inventory and planned marketing investments [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 75.41 billion yuan, 81.71 billion yuan, and 87.78 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8%, and 7% [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][9] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with international business emerging as a "second engine" for growth [1][6] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million yuan, up 22% year-on-year [3][6] - The company has a strong order backlog of 3.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29% [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 720 million yuan, representing an 11% year-on-year increase but a 7% decrease quarter-on-quarter [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 40.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 21.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.6 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 22% [5][9] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 650 million, 800 million, and 1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 23%, 24%, and 24% [5][9] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 32X for 2024, 26X for 2025, and 21X for 2026 [5][9]