Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's business structure optimization and refined management have driven rapid growth in performance [3] - The company's freight volume increased by 18.5% YoY in Q3 2024, with revenue growing by 21.2% YoY to 3.04 billion CNY [4] - Gross profit surged by 66.7% YoY to 480 million CNY, with gross margin improving by 4.3 percentage points to 15.6% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 27.9% YoY to 190 million CNY, with net margin increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2% [4] Business Performance - The number of freight partners and agents increased by 14.3% YoY to approximately 32,000 in Q3 2024 [7] - Terminal customers served by the company and its partners exceeded 5.8 million in H1 2024, up from over 5 million in the same period last year [7] - Average freight volume per outlet increased by 3.7% YoY to 117 tons in Q3 2024 [7] - The company's product competitiveness improved, with average shipment time reduced to less than 64 hours in September 2024, down from 68 hours in H1 2024 [7] - The loss rate per 100,000 shipments decreased to 0.03 in Q3 2024 from 0.04 in H1 2024, and complaints per 100,000 shipments dropped to 39.2 from 51 [7] Business Structure Optimization - The company's freight structure continued to optimize, with 0-70kg mini parcels growing by 37.3% YoY, 70-300kg small LTL (Less Than Truckload) growing by 22.6% YoY, and 300kg+ large LTL growing by 6.6% YoY in Q3 2024 [10] - The average weight per shipment decreased from 109kg in H1 2022 to 81kg in Q3 2024, reflecting significant optimization in freight structure [10] Cost Management and Profitability - The company reduced 55 less efficient small distribution centers in 2023 and optimized its fleet management, leading to a significant decrease in core costs [13] - Unit trunk line cost decreased from 0.317 CNY/kg in Q3 2023 to 0.297 CNY/kg in Q3 2024, and unit distribution center cost dropped from 0.168 CNY/kg to 0.140 CNY/kg [13] - The company's gross margin reached 15.6% in Q3 2024, up 4.2 percentage points YoY [13] - Management expense ratio remained low, with Q3 2024 at 7.3%, down from 9.9% in H1 2022 [14] Strategic Focus - The company is implementing the "Five Best" strategy, focusing on cost optimization, quality improvement, stable delivery times, fast service response, and dense network coverage [15] - The strategy aims to enhance customer retention and attract new customers, driving long-term growth in both volume and profitability [15] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 17% YoY to 11.6 billion CNY in 2024, 16% YoY to 13.5 billion CNY in 2025, and 13% YoY to 15.24 billion CNY in 2026 [19] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 105% YoY to 803 million CNY in 2024, 24% YoY to 1 billion CNY in 2025, and 15% YoY to 1.15 billion CNY in 2026 [19] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 10.79x in 2024, 8.67x in 2025, and 7.53x in 2026 [19]

Geely Automobile - Geely Automobile reported a 36% YoY increase in total revenue to RMB 167.68 billion and a 358.48% YoY increase in net profit to RMB 13.05 billion for the first three quarters of 2024 [7] - In Q3 2024, Geely's revenue reached RMB 60.38 billion, up 20.5% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 2.46 billion, up 92.4% YoY [8] - Geely's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in Q3 2024 reached 225,700 units, accounting for 42.26% of total sales, up 11.48 percentage points YoY [9] - Geely acquired an additional 11.3% stake in Zeekr, increasing its ownership to 62.8%, and Zeekr acquired a 51% stake in Lynk & Co for RMB 9.37 billion [10] Wanhua Chemical - Wanhua Chemical's MDI price rebounded in October 2024, with the company's Q4 price difference index at the 13.27th percentile historically [15] - Wanhua's key projects include a 1.5 million tons/year MDI technical renovation project in Fujian and a 10,000 tons/year vanillin industrial chain project [16] - In October 2024, the average price of pure MDI was RMB 18,248/ton, down 11.67% YoY, while the price difference between pure MDI and raw materials increased by 2.71% MoM [20] - Wanhua's Q4 2024 net profit is expected to reach RMB 3.9 billion, driven by improved price differences and operational efficiency [15] Alibaba Group - Alibaba's FY2025Q2 revenue reached RMB 2.365 trillion, up 5% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 43.5 billion, up 63% YoY [29] - Taotian Group's revenue grew 1% YoY to RMB 99 billion in Q3 2024, with a take rate remaining stable and order volume growing double-digit YoY [30] - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew 7% YoY to RMB 29.6 billion in Q3 2024, with AI-related revenue growing triple-digit YoY for five consecutive quarters [32] - Alibaba repurchased 414 million shares worth $4.1 billion in Q3 2024, with $22 billion remaining under its share repurchase program [32] JD Group - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 260.4 billion, up 5% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 12.8 billion, up 56% YoY [76] - JD Retail's revenue grew 6% YoY to RMB 225 billion in Q3 2024, driven by a 20% YoY increase in third-party merchant users and a 30% YoY increase in orders [78] - JD Logistics' revenue grew 7% YoY to RMB 44.4 billion in Q3 2024, with an operating profit margin of 4.7%, up 4 percentage points YoY [79] - JD Logistics partnered with Taotian Group to provide supply chain solutions for Taobao and Tmall merchants, expected to contribute to future revenue growth [79] Lenovo Group - Lenovo's FY2025H1 revenue reached $33.3 billion, up 21.92% YoY, with a net profit of $602 million, up 41.37% YoY [90] - Lenovo's Intelligent Devices Group revenue grew 15% YoY to $24.9 billion in FY2025H1, driven by strong performance in PCs and smartphones [92] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue grew 65% YoY to $6.5 billion in FY2025H1, with operating losses narrowing and approaching breakeven [94] - Lenovo's Solutions and Services Group revenue reached a record $2.165 billion in FY2025Q2, with an operating profit margin of 20% [95] Aluminum Industry - China's aluminum export tax rebate will be canceled starting December 1, 2024, potentially increasing export costs and reducing export volumes [41] - Domestic alumina prices continued to rise in November 2024, with tight supply due to production disruptions in Guinea and environmental restrictions in China [47] - Aluminum processing industry faced challenges in November 2024, with weak demand in the construction sector and potential impacts from the export tax rebate cancellation [43] - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high profitability due to limited supply growth and strong demand, with a "recommended" rating for the sector [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (02618) [3] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved record-high profitability in Q3 2024, driven by cost optimization and external order growth [3] - External orders remain the primary revenue source, accounting for 71.20% of total revenue [6] - The company's net profit surged 438.15% YoY to RMB 2.445 billion in Q3 2024 [3] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 44.396 billion, up 6.56% YoY [3] - Internal revenue from JD Group grew 8.13% YoY to RMB 12.788 billion, accounting for 28.80% of total revenue [6] - External revenue increased 5.94% YoY to RMB 31.608 billion [6] Profitability - Net profit attributable to shareholders skyrocketed 928.77% YoY to RMB 2.205 billion [3] - Non-IFRS profit rose 205.14% YoY to RMB 2.573 billion [3] - Gross profit margin improved by 3.79 percentage points to 11.71% [10] Cost Structure - Operating costs increased 2.18% YoY to RMB 39.198 billion, lower than revenue growth [11] - Outsourcing costs as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.26 percentage points [11] Business Segments External Integrated Supply Chain - Revenue grew 1.23% YoY to RMB 7.875 billion, representing 17.74% of total revenue [6] - Customer base expanded 9.36% YoY to 59,300 [6] Pure Distribution Business - Revenue increased 7.60% YoY to RMB 23.733 billion, accounting for 53.46% of total revenue [6] - Deppon contributed RMB 9.850 billion, up 1.03% YoY [6] - Non-Deppon revenue grew 12.80% YoY to RMB 13.883 billion [6] Future Outlook - Revenue is projected to grow 9%, 8%, and 7% in 2024-2026, reaching RMB 182.424 billion, RMB 196.535 billion, and RMB 211.010 billion respectively [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase 1035%, 10%, and 10% in 2024-2026 [12] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted at 13.03x, 11.83x, and 10.80x for 2024-2026 [12]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Lenovo Group achieved strong double-digit growth across all three business groups for the first time in three years during FY2025H1, driven by the initial success of hybrid AI [1][3] - Revenue for FY2025H1 reached $33.297 billion, a 21.92% YoY increase, with net profit rising 41.37% to $602 million [1] - Q2 FY2025 revenue grew 23.87% YoY and 15.56% QoQ to $17.85 billion, with net profit increasing 43.85% YoY and 47.32% QoQ to $359 million [1] Business Segments Summary Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) - Revenue for FY2025H1 was approximately $24.9 billion, a 15% YoY increase, with operating profit growing 22% [3] - AI PCs accounted for 14% of total laptop shipments in China during Q2 FY2025 [3] - Smartphone revenue surged 43% YoY, driven by strong growth in APAC, EMEA, and North America [3] Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) - Revenue grew 65% YoY to $6.5 billion in FY2025H1, marking a historic high [3] - Operating losses narrowed by approximately $1 million QoQ in Q2 FY2025, moving closer to breakeven [3] - The Neptune liquid cooling solution attracted new orders, leveraging expertise in high-performance computing [3] Solutions and Services Group (SSG) - Q2 FY2025 revenue reached a record high of $2.165 billion, with an operating margin of 20% [3] - SSG contributed 32% of the total operating profit from the three business groups [3] - The group is well-positioned to capitalize on hybrid AI trends, driving future growth [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for FY2025E and FY2026E is projected at $66.127 billion and $71.493 billion, respectively, with YoY growth of 16.3% and 8.1% [7][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $1.299 billion in FY2025E and $1.462 billion in FY2026E, with EPS of $0.10 and $0.12, respectively [7][8] - P/E ratios for FY2025E and FY2026E are forecasted at 11.24X and 10.00X [7][8] Market Performance - Lenovo Group's stock underperformed the Hang Seng Index over the past year, with a -16.0% return compared to the index's -4.4% [3] - Current stock price is HKD 9.17, with a 52-week range of HKD 7.80-12.26 [3] - Market capitalization stands at HKD 113.75 billion [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longda Foodstuff (002726) [1] Core Views - Longda Foodstuff's food segment shows steady growth with continuous business structure optimization [1] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue declined by 12.12% YoY to 2.97 billion yuan, but net profit surged 161.61% YoY to 15 million yuan [2] - The food segment accounted for over 20% of total revenue, with prepared food revenue reaching 1.509 billion yuan in the first three quarters [3] - The slaughtering business saw improved profitability through channel restructuring and high-margin product development [3] - The breeding business turned profitable in Q3 2024 due to rising pig prices and effective cost control [3] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 8.014 billion yuan, down 20.7% YoY, while net profit increased 111.26% YoY to 73 million yuan [2] - Q3 2024 prepared food revenue grew 34.61% QoQ to 536 million yuan, driven by seasonal demand and new customer acquisition [3] - The company's slaughtering volume reached 3.6008 million heads in Q1-Q3 2024, with breeding output at 247,600 heads [3] - The company's total market capitalization stood at 7.26275 billion yuan as of November 18, 2024 [3] Strategic Development - The company focuses on expanding its food business through product diversification and channel optimization [3] - The "consolidate existing and develop new" strategy for large B-end customers has shown effectiveness [3] - The company is strengthening its presence in online and new retail channels for C-end customers [3] - The Q4 2024 Spring Festival season is expected to boost annual performance [3] Industry Analysis - China's slaughtering and breeding industries are becoming more standardized under policy guidance [3] - The industry entered a de-capacity cycle in January 2023, leading to improved market conditions [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to reach 12.107 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 14.158 billion yuan by 2026 [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 102 million yuan in 2024 to 248 million yuan in 2026 [6] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.09 yuan in 2024 to 0.23 yuan in 2026 [6] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 71.11 in 2024 to 29.33 in 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's current price is 6.73 yuan, with a 52-week range of 5.93-8.75 yuan [3] - ROE is projected to improve from 6% in 2024 to 12% in 2026 [6] - P/B ratio is expected to decline from 4.58 in 2024 to 3.57 in 2026 [6] - P/S ratio is forecasted to decrease from 0.60 in 2024 to 0.51 in 2026 [6]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights potential investment opportunities driven by improving demand in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [1] - Key areas of focus include the pig farming, poultry, animal health, planting, feed, and pet industries [1][3][4][7][8][9] Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector shows signs of recovery with a decline in sow inventory and weak capacity restoration [1][25] - The sow inventory in Q3 2024 decreased by 4.2% YoY, and piglet prices have significantly dropped, indicating weak capacity recovery [25] - The report predicts a rebound in Q4 2024 and expects pig prices to remain above the cost line throughout 2025 [25] - Recommended companies include Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and Julong Animal Husbandry, with attention on Tangrenshen Group, Huatong Meat Products, and Guanghong Holdings [25] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a recovery in chicken prices, with white-feathered chicken prices showing signs of stabilization [3][38] - The report forecasts an improvement in industry sentiment as consumption improves, recommending companies like Sunner Development and Yisheng Livestock & Poultry [3][40] - The yellow-feathered chicken industry is also showing stable profitability, with recommended companies including Lihua Animal Husbandry and Wens Foodstuff Group [40] Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and expansion opportunities [4][53] - Companies like Ruipu Biology are expanding through acquisitions, such as the purchase of a 15% stake in Zhongrui Huapu for 131 million yuan, enhancing their strategic layout in the pet health sector [53] - Recommended companies include Ruipu Biology, Keqian Biology, and China Animal Husbandry Industry [53] Planting Sector - The planting sector is experiencing fluctuations in major grain prices, with corn and wheat prices showing downward trends [66] - The report suggests focusing on companies with early reserves in genetically modified seed research and development, such as Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [66] Feed Sector - Feed prices continue to decline, improving breeding costs [70][71] - The report recommends companies like Haid Group and Hefeng Animal Husbandry, as the feed industry is expected to see increased concentration [72] Pet Sector - The pet sector is in a rapid development phase, with domestic brands showing strong growth [85][86] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, brands like Myfoodie and Fuli Jiade under Guibao Pet saw significant sales growth, with Myfoodie achieving a GMV of 670 million yuan, up 65% YoY, and Fuli Jiade reaching 200 million yuan, up 190% YoY [86] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, Zhongpet, and Petpal Pet Nutrition in the pet food sector, and Ruipu Biology in the pet healthcare sector [86] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for key companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Sunner Development, and others, with most companies receiving a "Buy" rating [96]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618 HK) [4] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 2604 billion RMB (YoY +5%, QoQ -11%), slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.2 billion RMB (YoY +24%, QoQ -9%), significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [4][15] - The company has repurchased $3.6 billion worth of shares as of September 30, 2024, with a new share repurchase plan allowing up to $5 billion in buybacks by August 2027 [4] Business Performance JD Retail - JD Retail revenue grew 6% YoY to 2250 billion RMB in Q3 2024, driven by increased active users and order volume [6] - The "Spring Dawn Plan" upgrade introduced 15 new initiatives, including traffic support and advertising subsidies, leading to over 20% YoY growth in third-party merchant transaction users and over 30% YoY growth in order volume [6] - Electronics category revenue grew 3% YoY, benefiting from national subsidy policies for trade-in programs [6] - Daily necessities category revenue grew 8% YoY, with supermarket and apparel categories achieving double-digit growth [6] JD Logistics - JD Logistics revenue reached 44.4 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +7%, QoQ flat) [9] - Operating profit margin improved by 4.0 percentage points YoY to 4.7% [9] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue grew 5.4% YoY to 20.7 billion RMB [9] - Other customer revenue grew 7.6% YoY to 23.7 billion RMB, driven by growth in express delivery and freight services [9] Financial Metrics - Gross profit was 45 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +16%, QoQ -2%), with a gross margin of 17.3% [17] - Operating profit was 12 billion RMB (YoY +29%, QoQ +15%), with an operating margin of 4.6% [17] - Net profit was 12.8 billion RMB (YoY +56%, QoQ -6%), with a net profit margin of 4.9% [17] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are raised to 11,399/12,075/12,737 billion RMB [24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected at 37.7/43.1/47.5 billion RMB [24] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 45/51.1/55.4 billion RMB, with Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 9/8/7X [24] - Target price is set at 164 RMB/177 HKD based on SOTP valuation, implying a target market cap of 523.1 billion RMB for 2025 [24][25] Market Performance - JD Group's stock price has shown significant outperformance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with 12-month returns of 28.7% compared to the index's 7.5% [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Home Depot (HD), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Home Depot's Q3 FY2024 performance exceeded market expectations, leading to an upward revision of its full-year guidance. The company reported sales of $40.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, while comparable sales decreased by 1.3% [1]. - The company anticipates a full-year sales growth of 4% year-over-year, an increase from the previous guidance of 2.5% to 3.5% [1]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the U.S. interest rate cuts on the real estate market, which is expected to boost demand for home improvement products [1]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Home Depot's Q3 FY2024 sales reached $40.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 6.6%. Comparable sales decreased by 1.3%, while net profit was $3.6 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year. The diluted EPS was $3.67, a decrease of 3.7% year-over-year [1]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) was 33.4%, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year, and the operating profit margin (OPM) was 13.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-over-year [1]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. construction spending continues to show a year-over-year growth trend, with new home sales improving in the July-September period [1]. - The company expects a recovery in real estate demand due to the interest rate cuts, which will likely drive sales growth in home improvement products [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2026 are $158.1 billion, $166.4 billion, and $174.7 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 4%, 5%, and 5% [1]. - The report forecasts net profits of $15.1 billion, $15.6 billion, and $16.3 billion for FY2024 to FY2026, with growth rates of -1%, +4%, and +4% [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [1] Core Views - Alibaba's commercialization strategy is steadily advancing, focusing on high-quality GMV growth, with core business showing robust growth [4][39] - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY2025Q2, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5% [2][12] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 47.3 billion yuan, down 4% year-over-year [2][12] Financial Performance Summary - **Overall Performance**: For FY2025Q2, Alibaba achieved a net profit of 43.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63% year-over-year, and a 81% increase quarter-over-quarter [2][12][13] - **Segment Performance**: - **Taobao Group**: Revenue reached 99 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 1%. The adjusted EBITA was 44.6 billion yuan, with an EBITA margin of 45% [4][39] - **International Digital Commerce Group**: Revenue grew by 29% year-over-year to 31.7 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in cross-border business [44] - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Revenue increased by 7% year-over-year to 29.6 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for five consecutive quarters [49] - **Profitability Metrics**: The operating profit margin was 14.9%, and the net profit margin was 18.4% for FY2025Q2 [36] Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027, estimating revenues of 1,005.9 billion yuan, 1,110.6 billion yuan, and 1,222.8 billion yuan respectively [51] - The target market capitalization for FY2025 is set at 2,055.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 107 yuan per share [51][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products starting December 1 will increase export costs and may impact the export volume of aluminum processing companies [8] - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a tight supply of bauxite, which is expected to support the prices of alumina [14][17] - The overall demand for aluminum remains stable, with some recovery in downstream orders, particularly in the appliance sector [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of November 15, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2656.5 per ton, up $29.5 from the previous week, and up 19.4% year-on-year [25] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 20780.0 CNY per ton, down 910.0 CNY from the previous week, but up 9.6% year-on-year [25] 2. Production - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is 837,000 tons, down slightly from the previous week but up 3.3% year-on-year [59] - The weekly production of alumina is 1.647 million tons, up 0.9% from the previous week and up 4.9% year-on-year [59] 3. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable, with some companies undergoing maintenance, limiting supply [9] - The demand from downstream sectors is stable, with some companies increasing production to meet orders [10] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the industry include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [6]