Core Views - In the long term, the space for continued decline in internationally priced commodities such as copper, aluminum, and crude oil is relatively limited, supported by the soft landing or non-landing of the US economy and ongoing growth stabilization policies in China [2] - The exchange rate aspect shows that the USD/CNY is approaching 7.3 again, which may enhance the motivation for "expectation management" by the central bank and regulatory agencies [3] - In the black metal sector, weak demand from the real estate construction side and the upcoming rainy season in Brazil and Australia may lead to a continued weak fluctuation in rebar and iron ore prices [4] - In the US stock market, the Trump trade is driving USD appreciation, and tax cut expectations may continue to benefit US stocks; in the A-share market, the Fed's shift from dovish to hawkish means limited monetary easing space for China's central bank, leading to potential short-term A-share pullbacks, with long-term performance depending on fiscal and industrial incremental policies [5] - For precious metals, it is expected that gold may have overreacted to the Fed's hawkish turn in the short term, but long-term gold prices may still benefit from expectations of secondary inflation in the US, presenting a long-term buying opportunity during this round of gold price adjustments [6] Historical Performance Review - In the past month, major asset performances showed Brent crude oil down by 9.3%, rebar down by 9.1%, and LME copper down by 7.4%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index also experienced declines [10] - The A-share and US stock markets saw significant gains, with A-shares benefiting from a series of positive policies, while commodities faced larger declines [11] Exchange Rate and Precious Metals - The Trump victory has led to a renewed upward trend in USD/CNY, breaking above 7.2, with expectations of further depreciation pressure on the RMB if it surpasses 7.3 [16] - The short-term reaction of gold prices to the Fed's hawkish stance has been negative, but long-term prospects remain positive due to potential secondary inflation in the US [22] Black Metals - The weak demand in the real estate sector and the upcoming rainy seasons in Brazil and Australia are expected to keep iron ore prices under pressure, despite potential short-term relief from seasonal factors [53] Crude Oil - The core reasons for the decline in oil prices in October and November include the IEA's downward revision of global oil demand expectations and the Fed's tapering of rate cuts, with WTI crude oil prices falling below $70 per barrel [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a steady increase in supply, with both production and imports of raw coal accelerating year-on-year. In October 2024, the industrial raw coal output reached 410 million tons, a 4.6% increase compared to the previous year, while coal imports rose by 28.5% to 46.25 million tons [2][85] - The demand side shows a slowdown in thermal power generation growth, with a reported increase of only 1.8% year-on-year in October 2024, significantly down from previous months [3][87] - The overall coal supply growth is estimated at 2.3% when considering both domestic production and imports [86] Supply Summary - In October 2024, the average daily output of industrial raw coal was 13.28 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 530,000 tons but a year-on-year increase of 740,000 tons [1][77] - Major coal companies reported varied production results: China Shenhua produced 27.6 million tons (+0.4%), Shaanxi Coal and Energy produced 13.75 million tons (-5.2%), and China Coal Energy produced 11.34 million tons (+2.3%) [81] Demand Summary - The industrial electricity generation in October 2024 was 731 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, but a significant slowdown compared to previous months [3][87] - The steel industry shows a positive trend with pig iron production turning positive at 70.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [96] Inventory Summary - In October 2024, the overall inventory of thermal coal increased, indicating a supply surplus. The inventory at thermal coal production enterprises rose by 140,000 tons to 14.1 million tons [9][12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on coal companies with high cash flow and profitability, maintaining a positive outlook for the coal mining sector. Key companies to watch include Yancoal Energy, Guanghui Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved its first quarterly profit since going public, with a revenue of 7.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 26% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 19% [1][3] - The mobile gaming segment saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 84% year-over-year to 1.823 billion yuan, driven by the success of the exclusive game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [3] - The advertising business also performed well, with revenue growing by 28% year-over-year to 2.094 billion yuan, supported by improved advertising products and efficiency [3][5] Summary by Sections Operating Performance - Monthly Active Users (MAU) grew by 2% year-over-year to 348 million, while Daily Active Users (DAU) increased by 4% to 107 million [3] - User engagement metrics improved, with average daily usage time rising from 100 minutes to 106 minutes, and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) increasing by 23% to 21 yuan [3] Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 34.9%, up 9.9 percentage points year-over-year and 4.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 240 million yuan, a significant improvement from a loss of 860 million yuan in Q3 2023 [3] Mobile Gaming Business - The exclusive game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" ranked in the top three of the iOS game sales chart for three consecutive seasons, contributing to the mobile gaming revenue surge [3] Value-Added Services - Revenue from value-added services increased by 9% year-over-year to 2.821 billion yuan, driven by growth in live streaming and other services [3] Advertising Business - The advertising revenue growth was primarily attributed to enhancements in advertising products and increased efficiency, with significant contributions from the gaming, e-commerce, and automotive sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 26.21 billion yuan for Q3 2024, showing a year-over-year decline of 3.9% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.538 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-over-year and down 3.3% quarter-over-quarter [1][3] - The gaming segment showed strong growth, with revenue from PC games increasing by 29% year-over-year, while mobile games experienced a decline of 10% due to base effects. The company is set to release several new titles, which are expected to drive future growth [3][7] - The company’s subsidiary, Youdao, achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in Q3 2024, marking a year-over-year growth of 2.2% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 19.0%, with significant improvements in profitability [3][8] - NetEase Cloud Music reported a revenue of 2 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.3% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.0%, with a notable improvement in gross margin [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 62.9%, with a slight year-over-year increase of 0.6 percentage points. The sales expense ratio was 14.5%, the R&D expense ratio was 16.9%, and the management expense ratio was 4.2% [3] - The total market capitalization is approximately 431.81 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of the same amount [3] - The company’s revenue projections for FY2024-2026 are estimated at 104.3 billion, 108.3 billion, and 115.3 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 31.6 billion, 33 billion, and 36.1 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid downstream demand growth. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials as a foundational industry that supports other sectors, including electronic information, new energy, biotechnology, and energy conservation and environmental protection [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. New Materials Industry Dynamics 1.1 Electronic Information Sector - The report highlights a focus on semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [3]. - According to SEMI, global silicon wafer shipments increased by 5.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, reaching 3,214 million square inches, a 6.8% increase year-on-year [3][32]. - Demand for advanced wafers for artificial intelligence remains strong, while demand for automotive and industrial silicon wafers is weak [3][32]. 1.2 Aerospace Sector - The report focuses on PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [3]. 1.3 New Energy Sector - Key areas of interest include photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [7]. - China's annual production of new energy vehicles has surpassed 10 million units for the first time, with expectations to exceed 12 million by the end of the year [8]. 1.4 Biotechnology Sector - The report emphasizes synthetic biology and scientific services [9]. - Invizyne Technologies, Inc. recently went public, raising $15 million, marking a significant development in the field of biomanufacturing [9]. 1.5 Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Focus areas include adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [10]. 2. Sector Data Tracking - The report tracks key companies and their earnings forecasts, highlighting several companies with "Buy" ratings based on their performance and future earnings projections [14]. 3. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The new materials sector is expected to benefit from downstream application catalysts, entering a favorable economic cycle, thus maintaining a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1]. Core Insights - The coal mining industry is expected to maintain a tight balance in the coming years, characterized by high asset quality, abundant cash flow, and continued high profitability, cash flow, barriers to entry, dividends, and safety margins [1]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the subsequent inventory depletion at ports, as electricity consumption at power plants is gradually increasing, which is expected to support coal prices [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The thermal coal market shows a slight decrease in port prices, with a focus on the subsequent increase in daily consumption at power plants [18]. - As of November 15, the Qinhuangdao port price for thermal coal (Q5500, Shanxi origin) was 837 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [19]. - The production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 1.14 percentage points week-on-week, with weekly production rising by 160,000 tons [28]. 2. Coking Coal - The overall supply of coking coal remains sufficient, with an increase in the import of Mongolian coal and a rise in port inventories [64]. - As of November 15, the price of main coking coal at the Jingtang port remained stable at 1640 CNY/ton [65]. - The average crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port increased by 98 trucks week-on-week, indicating a rise in supply [70]. 3. Coke - The production rate of coking plants has decreased, while iron water production has increased, but overall demand remains weak due to the seasonal downturn [64]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor steel prices and the inventory depletion of coking coal and coke [64]. 4. Hydropower Situation - The outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir has increased week-on-week, but the water level has decreased [58].

Group 1: Key Insights on Jingrui Electric Materials and Electronic Chemicals - The company has a significant advantage in high-purity chemicals, with multiple photoresists in mass production [2][4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 51.91% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is the largest supplier of high-purity sulfuric acid and high-purity hydrogen peroxide in China, with a market share of approximately 40% for high-purity hydrogen peroxide [4][5] Group 2: Financial Performance of Jingrui Electric Materials - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 97.04% [2][3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 22.41%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 0.70%, down 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Group 3: Key Insights on Kaisa Bio and Chemical Products - Kaisa Bio's production capacity for sebacic acid has increased, leading to a significant year-on-year profit increase in Q3 2024 [6][7] - The company achieved operating revenue of 7.71 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.06%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.98 billion yuan, up 35.69% year-on-year [7][8] - Kaisa Bio focuses on the entire polyamide industry chain, with a total production capacity of 115,000 tons for long-chain dicarboxylic acids and 100,000 tons for bio-based polyamides [7][9] Group 4: Financial Performance of Kaisa Bio - For the first three quarters of 2024, Kaisa Bio reported operating revenue of 22.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.45 billion yuan, up 9.97% year-on-year [6][7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 34.03%, an increase of 7.97 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 12.24%, down 4.37 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company's production capacity for sebacic acid is ramping up, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in profits for Q3 2024 [3][4] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.215 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 345 million yuan, up 9.97% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity and enhancing its position in the polyamide industry chain [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 771 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 98 million yuan, up 35.69% year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 34.03%, an increase of 7.97 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 676 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.48% [3] Production Capacity and Strategy - The company currently has an annual production capacity of 115,000 tons for long-chain dicarboxylic acids and 100,000 tons for bio-based polyamides [5] - Ongoing projects include a 500,000-ton bio-based pentamethylenediamine project and a 900,000-ton bio-based polyamide project [5] - The company is recognized as a global leader in the large-scale production of new materials using biological manufacturing [5] Future Projections - The report adjusts the profit forecast for the company, estimating operating revenues of 3.107 billion yuan, 4.901 billion yuan, and 6.937 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 505 million yuan, 707 million yuan, and 915 million yuan for the same years [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jingrui Electric Materials (300655) for the first time [4] Core Views - The company's high-purity chemical products have significant advantages, with multiple photoresist products already in mass production [4][6] - The company is a leading domestic supplier of high-purity wet chemicals for semiconductors, with over 200,000 tons of high-purity sulfuric acid and hydrogen peroxide capacity, ranking first in the industry [6] - The company has a complete series of photolithography equipment and supporting testing facilities, with its UV broadband photoresist maintaining the top domestic market share for many years [6] - The company's NMP products use advanced international technology and have been supplied to the market for ten years, with stable high-quality customers [8] - The company is constructing new projects that will significantly increase its NMP production capacity for lithium batteries and semiconductors [8] Financial Performance - In 2024Q3, the company achieved revenue of 367 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.71% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024Q3 was 6 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.91%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.43% [5] - The gross profit margin in 2024Q3 was 22.41%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05 percentage points, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.61 percentage points [5] - The net cash flow from operating activities in 2024Q3 was 32 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.84% [5] - The company's total market value is 12,608.60 million yuan, with a circulating market value of 12,038.53 million yuan [3] Future Projections - The company's revenue is expected to be 1.33 billion yuan in 2024, 1.675 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.545 billion yuan in 2026 [8][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12 million yuan in 2024, 82 million yuan in 2025, and 196 million yuan in 2026 [8][9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 154.49 and 64.35, respectively [9] Industry Position - The company is the largest domestic supplier of high-purity wet chemicals for semiconductors, with a market share of about 40% for high-purity hydrogen peroxide [6] - The company has completed the national major science and technology project "02 Special Project" and has started large-scale supply of i-line photoresist series products [6] - The company is accelerating the development of ArF high-end photoresist, with multiple products already sent to customers for verification [6]

研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 2024 年 11 月 14 日 晨会纪要 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2024 年第 196 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2024Q3 盈利能力大幅改善，出海业务如期推进--零跑汽车/乘用车(09863/212805) 点评报告（港股美股） M1 降幅边际收窄，居民中长期贷款增量同比回暖--事件点评 计算机行业报告未来已来，空管系统引领低空新质生产力——"低空经济"专题研究--行业 PPT 报告 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、2024Q3 盈利能力大幅改善，出海业务如期推进--零跑汽车/乘用车 (09863/212805) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：戴畅 S0350523120004 事件: 零跑汽车 2024 年 11 月 11 日发布 2024 年三季度业绩公告：2024 第三季度实现营收 98.6 亿元，同/环比 +74.3%/+83.9%；实现归母净利润-6.9 亿元，同/环比亏损收窄。 投资要点: 2024Q3 公司毛利率大幅改善，亏损明显收窄。 1）2024Q3 公司实现 ...