Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [1] Core Views - The oil-coal price gap is expected to widen, enhancing the cost advantage of the Inner Mongolia project [1] - The company is positioned as a leading player in coal-to-olefins with significant cost advantages [21] - The profitability of the coke segment is anticipated to reach a bottom, with favorable policies potentially leading to a recovery in the industry [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Baofeng Energy achieved revenue of 291.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 56.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.34% [28] - The average selling price for polyethylene in 2023 was 7,083.48 yuan/ton, down 5.09% year-on-year, and for polypropylene, it was 6,758.90 yuan/ton, down 8.60% year-on-year [28] - The company expects revenues of 355 billion, 549 billion, and 591 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 74 billion, 144 billion, and 178 billion yuan [8] Production Capacity and Cost Advantages - The Inner Mongolia olefins project is set to begin trial production in October 2024, with a projected net profit of 2,811 yuan/ton for polyethylene, significantly higher than the Ningdong project [7] - The company has a total olefins capacity of 210 million tons/year, with plans for further expansion [44] - The report forecasts that the company's polyethylene and polypropylene segments will see substantial growth in gross profit over the next three years [44] Market Position and Industry Outlook - The report highlights the increasing domestic production capacity for polyethylene and polypropylene, which is expected to reduce reliance on imports [69] - The coke industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, but recovery is anticipated due to new policies and increased demand from the steel sector [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of the coal-to-olefins segment as a key profit driver for the company [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yuntianhua (600096) [1] Core Views - Yuntianhua's Q3 2024 performance showed significant year-on-year growth, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 19.42% YoY to 4.424 billion yuan [2] - The company's gross profit margin improved by 2.86 percentage points YoY to 16.99%, and net profit margin increased by 2.56 percentage points to 10.92% [2] - Yuntianhua's Q3 2024 revenue was 14.731 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.54% YoY, but net profit surged by 54.16% YoY to 1.583 billion yuan [2] - The company's ROE in Q3 2024 was 7.66%, up 1.87 percentage points YoY [2] Financial Performance - Yuntianhua achieved revenue of 46.724 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 12.34% YoY [2] - The company's net profit in Q3 2024 was 1.583 billion yuan, up 556 million yuan YoY [4] - Gross profit in Q3 2024 was 2.623 billion yuan, an increase of 416 million yuan YoY [4] - The company's operating cash flow in Q3 2024 was 2.886 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.82% YoY but an increase of 35.59% QoQ [5] Industry and Market Data - The average price of DAP (diammonium phosphate) in Q3 2024 was 3,916 yuan/ton, up 5.93% YoY [4] - Urea prices in Q3 2024 averaged 2,059 yuan/ton, down 17.32% YoY [4] - Compound fertilizer prices in Q3 2024 averaged 2,470 yuan/ton, up 2.74% YoY [4] - Phosphate rock prices as of October 14, 2024, were 1,018 yuan/ton, up 3.34% YoY [5] Resource Advantages - Yuntianhua has phosphate rock reserves of nearly 800 million tons, with an annual raw ore production capacity of 14.5 million tons [6] - The company's synthetic ammonia production capacity is 2.4 million tons/year, with a self-sufficiency rate of around 95% [6] - Yuntianhua's subsidiary acquired the exploration rights for the Wancang phosphate mine in Zhenxiong County for 800.08 million yuan, further enhancing its resource security [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts Yuntianhua's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 61.1 billion, 62.1 billion, and 62.7 billion yuan, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.6 billion, 5.9 billion, and 6.2 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [7] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 7.41x, 7.03x, and 6.71x for 2024-2026 [7] Operational Data - Yuntianhua produced 579.27 million tons of finished ore in the first half of 2024 [6] - The company's phosphate rock production capacity includes 6.18 million tons/year of scrubbing and 7.5 million tons/year of flotation [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The international thermal coal prices are strengthening, while domestic prices have seen a slight decline due to seasonal factors. However, the outlook for winter prices remains positive due to expected demand for replenishment [3][8] - The coking coal market is experiencing price increases, driven by rising iron and steel production, which has improved profitability for coking enterprises [27][36] - The report highlights key companies with significant investment potential, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Shenhua Energy [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Domestic thermal coal prices have slightly decreased, with Qinhuangdao port price at 850 RMB/ton, down 17 RMB/ton week-on-week [9] - The supply-demand dynamics show a slight increase in daily consumption, with coastal power plants' daily consumption rising to 1.827 million tons, up 234,000 tons week-on-week [14] - The report anticipates a narrow fluctuation in port thermal coal prices in the short term, with a positive outlook for winter prices [8][3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have continued to rise, with the price at Jing Tang port reaching 2010 RMB/ton, up 140 RMB/ton week-on-week [27] - The demand for coking coal is supported by a recovery in iron and steel production, leading to increased procurement by coking enterprises [27][36] - The report notes a decrease in coking coal inventory at production enterprises, indicating a tightening supply [30] Coking Coke - The coking coke industry has turned profitable, with the average profit per ton of coke at approximately 30 RMB, up 11 RMB week-on-week [37] - The production rate of independent coking plants has increased to 73.09%, reflecting improved operational efficiency [40] - The report indicates a strong short-term outlook for the coking coke market due to rising prices and improved profitability [36][37]

| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------|------------------------| | 2024 | 年 10 月 15 日 | 晨会纪要 | | 研究所： 证券分析师： | 余春生 S0350513090001 | 晨会纪要 [Table_Title] | | | yucs@ghzq.com.cn | —— 2024 年第 174 期 | 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 现实未改，预期先行--行业周报 延续 8 月修复势头，9 月销量同环比回升--宇通客车/商用车(600066/212806) 公司点评 特斯拉发布 Robotaxi 新品"Cybercab"，FSD、人形机器人也迎来最新进展--北交所行业普通报告 从资本开支角度研判福耀玻璃的扩张周期--福耀玻璃/汽车零部件(600660/212802) 公司动态研究 猪价震荡，产能补充偏弱--行业周报 机构行为每周跟踪--债券研究周报 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、现实未改，预期先行--行业周报 分析师：谢文迪 S0350522110004 联系人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Fuyao Glass [1] Core Views - The automotive glass industry requires high certainty in demand to support capacity expansion due to its heavy asset nature and continuous production requirements. Fuyao Glass is currently in a new round of capital expenditure expansion, which is expected to drive global market share and revenue growth [3][10][24] - Fuyao Glass has experienced three rounds of capital expenditure acceleration since 2010, with the current round (2021-2024) showing significant increases in investment, particularly in projects in Fujian and Anhui, as well as expansions in the U.S. [3][19][21] - Revenue growth for Fuyao Glass is driven by global market share, average selling price (ASP), and increased glass area per vehicle, with strong growth expected in the coming years [4][30][24] Summary by Sections Automotive Glass Industry - The automotive glass industry is characterized by high capital investment and continuous production requirements, necessitating strong demand certainty for capacity expansion [10][12] - Fuyao Glass maintains a fixed asset to total asset ratio above 25%, indicating its heavy asset nature and the significant capital required for production facilities [10][12] Fuyao Glass Capital Expenditure Review - Fuyao Glass has undergone three major capital expenditure expansions since 2010, with the current expansion expected to lead to significant revenue growth in 2025-2026 [3][19][21] - The first round (2010-2013) saw capital expenditure increase from 1.07 billion to 1.88 billion yuan, with revenue growth lagging by about two years [16] - The second round (2014-2018) involved investments in multiple production bases, leading to revenue growth from 16.6 billion in 2016 to 33.2 billion in 2023 [17][19] - The third round (2021-2024) has seen capital expenditure rise from 2.33 billion in 2021 to a planned 8.12 billion in 2024, focusing on new production lines and expansions [19][21] Investment Outlook - Fuyao Glass's revenue growth is highly certain, driven by market share increases, ASP improvements, and larger glass areas per vehicle [30][24] - The company’s global market share reached approximately 34% in 2023, with expectations for further increases due to reduced competition from rivals [24][30] - ASP for automotive glass has risen to 213.2 yuan per square meter in 2023, reflecting a 5.94% year-on-year increase, driven by a higher proportion of high-value products [26][30] - The average glass area per vehicle is expected to increase, particularly with the rising popularity of SUVs and panoramic roofs [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][7][48]. Core Views - The report highlights that pig prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a weak recovery in production capacity. Despite a temporary peak in prices, the overall pig price for 2025 is expected to remain above the cost line [3][11]. - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in the price of commodity broiler chicks, indicating a potential recovery in industry sentiment [4][16]. - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand, with profitability in pig farming continuing to rise [5][27]. - The planting sector is facing a decline in major grain prices, which may impact overall agricultural profitability [6][35]. - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in market share for domestic brands, with significant growth in the pet consumption market [7][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine - Piglet prices have declined, and production capacity recovery is weak. The average price of pigs in September was 18.96 CNY/kg, down 1.39 CNY/kg from the previous month. The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.1% month-on-month [11][27]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture, with attention to flexible stocks such as Tangrenshen and Huadong Holdings [3][11]. 2. Poultry - The price of commodity broiler chicks has increased, with the price of white feather broiler chicks at 4.35 CNY each, up 0.15 CNY from the previous period. The overall industry sentiment is expected to improve [4][16]. - Key recommendations include companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock, with additional attention to He Feng and Minhe Livestock [4][18]. 3. Animal Health - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 500 CNY per head, while for purchased piglets, it is 346 CNY per head. The demand for animal health products is expected to rise as farming conditions improve [5][27]. - Recommended companies include Biological Products and those with strong recovery potential like KQ Biotech and Reap Biotech [5][27]. 4. Planting - Major grain prices are on a downward trend, with the national average price for corn at 2151 CNY/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week and 19.7% year-on-year [6][35]. - Investment suggestions focus on companies involved in genetically modified seeds, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [6][35]. 5. Feed - Feed prices are decreasing, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.40 CNY/kg, down 30 CNY/ton month-on-month [7][39]. - The report recommends Haida Group and suggests attention to He Feng [7][39]. 6. Pets - The pet consumption market reached 279.3 billion CNY in 2023, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The pet food segment remains the largest expenditure category [7][44]. - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [7][44].

Group 1 - Tesla launched the new Robotaxi "Cybercab" with advancements in design, production cost, autonomous driving technology, and wireless charging capabilities. The expected price is under $30,000, with transportation costs around $0.2 per mile. The FSD (Full Self-Driving) capability will transition to fully autonomous operation by 2025, with production starting in 2026 and high-volume production by 2027 [4][16][18] - The introduction of the Robovan, a fully autonomous bus capable of carrying up to 20 passengers or cargo, is aimed at the commercial transportation market, with operational costs as low as $0.05 to $0.10 per kilometer [4][18] - The humanoid robot Optimus was showcased, capable of performing various tasks and expected to be priced between $20,000 and $30,000, indicating Tesla's commitment to the humanoid robotics market [4][20] Group 2 - XPeng Motors unveiled the P7+, the first vehicle to fully integrate the AI Tianji system, featuring over 1,000 perception points and 800 cabin functions. The vehicle's design includes a panoramic glass roof, enhancing visibility by 375% [4][22][24] - The AI Tianji system allows for personalized driving experiences and integrates a large language model for user interaction, enhancing the overall smart driving experience [4][24] - The new AI Eagle Eye vision system in the P7+ improves perception distance by 1.25 times, recognition speed by 40%, and overall computational efficiency by 20%, providing a driving experience comparable to laser radar systems [4][26] Group 3 - The A-share market saw significant fluctuations from October 8 to October 11, 2024, with the electronic, non-bank financial, and banking sectors showing minor declines, while social services, media, and real estate sectors experienced larger drops [4][27] - The North Exchange 50 index had a PE TTM of 35.28X, with a trading volume of 1.772 billion shares and a turnover rate of 5.63% as of October 11, 2024 [4][40] - Notable stocks included Tongguan Mining and Airo Software, with significant weekly gains of 731.41% and 53.77%, respectively [4][42]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodities industry [2]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts may slow down, while the possibility of rate cuts in the Eurozone is increasing. Strong employment and PMI data in the U.S. have enhanced market confidence in an economic soft landing, reducing expectations for significant rate cuts in November [3][11]. - Domestic A-share market fluctuations are significant, driven by changes in monetary and fiscal policies. The recent rebound in A-shares is attributed to a package of incremental policies announced by the National Development and Reform Commission [3][11]. - The steel sector is expected to see a strong adjustment in rebar prices in the short term, despite general demand being cautious [12][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors on the steel and commodities market, including the influence of U.S. employment data and Eurozone inflation rates [3][11]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Sector Performance - The steel sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.9% [14][15]. - The overall performance of the steel sector is reflected in the significant increase in trading volume, which rose by 275.7% compared to the previous period [15]. 2.2 Major Commodity Price Trends - The report notes a weak performance in the black commodities sector, with rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices showing declines of 2.34%, 1.21%, 3.96%, 4.01%, and 5.23% respectively [18][19]. 3. Market Tracking 3.1 Rebar - Rebar prices have shown a slight increase after a period of decline, with demand remaining cautious [12][11]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have experienced a decline due to weak supply-demand fundamentals, although there has been a slight rebound in prices recently [12][11]. 3.3 Coal - Coking coal prices are showing a strong performance in the spot market, while futures prices are weaker. The overall supply remains tight due to maintenance during the holiday period [12][11]. 3.4 Copper - Copper prices have weakened due to high prices suppressing demand and cautious market sentiment following fiscal policy reassessments [12][11]. 3.5 Aluminum - Aluminum prices have increased, driven by rising energy prices and improved market conditions post-holiday [12][11]. 3.6 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions and changes in demand forecasts, with recent price rebounds following supply disruptions [12][11]. 3.7 Soda Ash - The soda ash market is experiencing weak performance in futures, while the spot market remains relatively stable [12][11]. 4. Important News - The report discusses macroeconomic news impacting the industry, including policy changes and economic data releases that could influence market conditions [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1] Core Views - Yutong Bus experienced a recovery in sales in September 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.8%, indicating a positive trend in the third quarter [4][5] - The company received government subsidies amounting to 46 million yuan in the third quarter, which is expected to positively impact the net profit attributable to the parent company by 34 million yuan [5] - The forecast for Yutong Bus's revenue and net profit shows significant growth, with projected revenues of 33.01 billion yuan, 35.04 billion yuan, and 38.42 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 6%, and 10% [5][7] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, Yutong Bus produced 3,878 buses, a year-on-year increase of 13.82%, and sold 3,788 buses, a year-on-year increase of 6.20% [4] - Cumulative sales from January to September 2024 reached 31,346 buses, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 33,012 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22% [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3,296 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 81% [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.49 yuan in 2024, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 15, and 13 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][7] Market Position - Yutong Bus is recognized as a leading bus manufacturer, with expectations for continued growth in both domestic and overseas markets, particularly in the new energy bus segment [5]

Group 1: Great Wall Motors - In September, Great Wall Motors achieved sales of 108,000 vehicles, with a month-on-month increase of 14.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [2][3] - The sales of the Haval brand reached 63,000 units in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% but a month-on-month increase of 12.0% [2][3] - The company has seen significant growth in its WEY brand, with sales of 6,755 units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 165.1% and a month-on-month increase of 125.1% [2][3] - The company is expanding its overseas market, with September overseas sales reaching 44,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [3][4] Group 2: Xianle Health - Xianle Health has transitioned from a pharmaceutical company to a leading CDMO in the nutritional health food sector, with a revenue growth from 1.58 billion yuan in 2019 to 3.58 billion yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 22.72% [5][6] - The company has established a global presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 29.15% of total revenue in 2023, indicating a strong growth trajectory in international markets [5][6] - The global health food market is projected to grow from $155.1 billion in 2020 to $187.3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.5%, highlighting the industry's robust demand [6][7] Group 3: Cloud Music - Cloud Music reported a revenue of 4.07 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with a significant improvement in adjusted net profit by 165.4% [8][9] - The online music business generated 2.56 billion yuan in revenue, with membership subscription sales accounting for 83.8% of this figure, driven by an increase in paid users [9][10] - The company has successfully expanded its independent music artist base, with over 732,000 registered independent musicians by the end of H1 2024 [9][10] Group 4: Chip Motion Technology - Chip Motion Technology specializes in high-performance silicon-based MEMS inertial sensors, achieving a revenue growth from 80 million yuan in 2019 to 317 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 41% [11][12] - The global MEMS market is expected to grow from $14.75 billion in 2022 to $22.25 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 8.57%, indicating strong demand for MEMS sensors [11][12] - The company has a strong patent portfolio with 23 invention patents and 22 utility model patents, positioning it well in the competitive landscape [12][13]