Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.9-3.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 165%-183.28% [2]. - The growth momentum of the product "Wei Yimei" continues to be released, with a significant increase in sales and market penetration [9]. - The company has a rich pipeline of R&D projects, with ongoing clinical applications in various medical fields, including gynecology and urology [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 14.05 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 80.0%, and net profit is expected to be 6.51 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 117.2% [5][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 7.36 yuan in 2024, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22x, 16x, and 12x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][10]. - The company reported a net profit of 1 billion yuan in Q1 2024, with expectations of 2 billion yuan in Q2, indicating a year-on-year increase of 201% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 97% [9]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has expanded its injection product line and is actively promoting its brand and products to deepen existing customer relationships while attracting new clients [9]. - The "Wei Yimei" product has seen significant sales growth, with over 570,000 bottles sold in 2023, and the company has a sales team of 135 covering approximately 2,000 medical institutions [9]. - New product launches and collaborations, such as the partnership with Shurike for new medical devices, are expected to further enhance market reach and customer base [9].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Nonlinear Equity Allocation Signal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates microstructure factors for independent prediction and combines macro and meso factors to divide the market into eight operational states, forming a nonlinear equity allocation signal framework [3] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Microstructure factors are used for independent prediction 2. Macro and meso factors are domain-synthesized to classify the market into eight operational states 3. A nonlinear equity allocation signal is constructed based on these states [3] - **Model Evaluation**: This model provides a comprehensive framework by combining multiple dimensions of market signals [3] 2. Model Name: Four-Factor Timing Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines three-dimensional timing signals (macro, meso, and micro) with stock index futures timing signals to address the limitations of delayed predictions at market turning points [5][61] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct three-dimensional timing signals based on macroeconomic state, meso-level prosperity index, and microstructure risk 2. Develop stock index futures timing signals using the correlation between futures basis and index trends 3. Synthesize the two signals to form the four-factor timing signal [5][61] - **Model Evaluation**: The synthesized signal effectively complements the shortcomings of three-dimensional signals in predicting market inflection points [5][61] 3. Model Name: Stock Index Futures Timing Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: Utilizes the correlation between stock index futures basis and index trends to reflect market sentiment and construct daily timing signals [4][52] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define annualized basis rate: $ \text{Annualized Basis Rate} = \frac{\text{Next Month Futures - Current Month Futures}}{\text{Spot Price}} \times 12 $ 2. Use the CSI 500 basis time series to reflect market-wide changes 3. Construct a high-frequency basis indicator to express panic sentiment 4. Perform IC matrix testing and calculate stratified returns based on normalized signal values [52][53][55] - **Model Evaluation**: The signal captures market sentiment effectively and provides a quantitative basis for timing decisions [52][53] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Nonlinear Equity Allocation Signal Model - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Four-Factor Timing Signal - **Excess Return**: - CSI 300: Cumulative excess return of 73.61%, annualized excess return of 9.86% [62] - CSI 500: Cumulative excess return of 69.90%, annualized excess return of 9.36% [63] - CSI 1000: Cumulative excess return of 61.61%, annualized excess return of 8.25% [65] - CSI All Share: Cumulative excess return of 65.00%, annualized excess return of 8.70% [69] 3. Stock Index Futures Timing Signal - **IC Matrix Testing**: The stratified returns distribution is relatively linear when holding for 20 trading days [56] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Macro State Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the favorability of the macro environment on asset performance using logistic regression [20][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Stabilize macro variable sequences by lagging one period and calculating DIF values (12-period EMA minus 26-period EMA) 2. Define multi-long/short states based on the 60-day future return of A-shares 3. Perform rolling logistic regression using historical data ([t-1000, t-60]) to predict the favorability of the macro environment [20][21] - **Factor Evaluation**: High logical correlation with future index trends but limited predictive power for trend intensity [24] 2. Factor Name: Meso-Level Prosperity Index - **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses high-frequency meso-level data to predict A-share profitability trends [26][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Select high-frequency meso-level variables (e.g., industrial output, profits, economic activity) 2. Use PCA to synthesize major factors and regress against the net profit growth rate of the Shanghai Composite Index 3. Increase frequency to daily and predict using the trained model [26][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power for A-share profitability trends and leading indicators [27] 3. Factor Name: Microstructure Risk Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures valuation, risk premium, volatility, and liquidity to assess market risk [31][32][34][36] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Valuation: Average percentile of PE and PB over the past five years 2. Risk Premium: Percentile of ERP over the past five years 3. Volatility: Average percentile of rolling 20-day volatility over the past five years 4. Liquidity: Percentile of free-float turnover rate over the past five years 5. Combine the above metrics equally to form a left-side prediction indicator [31][32][34][36][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive measure of market risk, with current A-share structural risk at a low level (0.27) [38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Macro State Factor - **Correlation with Index Trends**: - CSI All Share: 0.9628 (up/down), -0.0132 (trend intensity) [25] - CSI 300: 0.9659 (up/down), -0.1271 (trend intensity) [25] - CSI 500: 0.9765 (up/down), 0.1211 (trend intensity) [25] - CSI 1000: 0.9677 (up/down), 0.0396 (trend intensity) [25] 2. Meso-Level Prosperity Index - **Predictive Performance**: - Leading A-share profitability trends with significant accuracy [27] 3. Microstructure Risk Factor - **Current Risk Levels (as of June 28, 2024)**: - CSI All Share: Valuation (0.122), Risk Premium (0.034), Volatility (0.427), Liquidity (0.105), Structural Risk (0.353) [39] - CSI 300: Valuation (0.196), Risk Premium (0.151), Volatility (0.078), Liquidity (0.263), Structural Risk (0.294) [39] - CSI 500: Valuation (0.182), Risk Premium (0.102), Volatility (0.479), Liquidity (0.062), Structural Risk (0.372) [39] - CSI 1000: Valuation (0.147), Risk Premium (0.050), Volatility (0.638), Liquidity (0.055), Structural Risk (0.396) [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of lightweight manufacturing, with precision die-casting poised to become a new growth driver. The company is entering a period of order accumulation as it expands its customer base [2]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 92.27 billion, 114.95 billion, and 143.05 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.28%, 24.59%, and 24.44% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 6.40 billion, 8.79 billion, and 11.42 billion CNY, with growth rates of 37.78%, 37.29%, and 29.84% respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company is strategically positioned in the automotive electronics and precision die-casting sectors, focusing on high R&D investment to maintain industry leadership and expand product offerings. Recent years have seen significant breakthroughs in customer acquisition, supported by capital increases for domestic and international production base expansion [5][19]. Automotive Electronics - The automotive electronics segment is expected to see revenue growth from 63.58 billion to 101.24 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, driven by the rapid development of electric and intelligent vehicles. The company has successfully expanded its customer base, including partnerships with major automotive manufacturers [7][23]. Precision Die-Casting - The precision die-casting business is anticipated to grow from 21.80 billion to 34.06 billion CNY during the same period, benefiting from the increasing demand for lightweight materials in the automotive industry. The company has secured new projects with significant clients, including those in the electric vehicle sector [23][72]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 71.37 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 26.59%, and a net profit of 4.65 billion CNY, up 22.17%. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 19.91 billion CNY, reflecting a 51.34% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing by 83.52% [29]. Market Trends - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards electrification and intelligence, with the penetration rate of intelligent components expected to accelerate. The company has established an early presence in the automotive electronics market, providing it with a competitive advantage [6][35]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company is investing in new production facilities to meet growing order demands, with fixed asset investments reaching a historical high in 2023. New projects include the establishment of a subsidiary in Zhejiang for lightweight precision die-casting components, set to commence production in 2024 [19][20].

效应。军费开支主要涉及军事建设及武器装备研发及制造等方面，可以通过设备等物 质资本购买增加社会的总需求，并在经济循环中产生乘数效应，推动经济增长。目前 来看，全球主要制造业国家的军费开支大都持续提升，军费支出占制造业增加值的中 枢也在提升，预计全球制造业将受益于新一轮的军费扩张周期。 投资策略│半年度策略 我们认为，当前全球制造业复苏驱动仍在，扰动因素影响或有限。基于下半年全 球产业链重构影响延续，全球货币政策进一步宽松，下半年驱动全球制造业复苏的引 擎仍在。此外，市场担忧的美国制造业复苏强度以及海运费高涨或暂不足以对全球制 造业复苏构成影响。 12 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 图表12：2023 年下半年来，美国制造业新订单增速整体企稳，除运输外的新订单增速 震荡上行 资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 40 45 50 55 60 65 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2010-012010-072011-012011-072012-012012-072013-012013-072014-012014-072015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017 ...

计算机 聚焦新质生产力、新型基础设施建设机遇 ——计算机行业 2024 年度中期投资策略 ➢ 人工智能:终端、应用逐步落地 英伟达算力性能提升,华为推出国产算力体系,大模型迭代升级进一步推 动算力需求。据 IDC 预测,2023 年中国 AI 服务器市场规模将达 91 亿美元, 2027 年将达到 134 亿美元,五年 CAGR 为 21.8%,市场进入快速成长期。大 模型多模态能力持续提升,成本逐步下降。手机、电脑、物联网、机器人等 终端受益智能化渗透率和景气度双提升,AI 应用在 C 端、B 端逐步落地。 ➢ 量子技术:有望带来颠覆性变革 量子技术是新一轮科技革命和产业变革的前沿领域,各国重视量子技术发 展。我国加速推出政策扶持量子技术发展,而美国将 22 家量子计算有关中 国实体加入"实体清单"。量子技术应用空间广阔,据 IDC 预计,全球在量 子计算技术(包括硬件、软件和即服务解决方案)支出预计将从 2022 年的 11 亿美元增长到 2027 年的 76 亿美元,五年复合年增长率(2022–2027 年) 为 48.1%,行业或将迎来快速增长期。 ➢ 数据要素:产业蓄势待发 随着"数据二十条"的发布 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it suggests a focus on continuous monitoring and potential growth opportunities. Core Insights - In June 2024, the company delivered 10,668 vehicles, marking a 24% year-on-year increase and a 5% month-on-month increase. Cumulatively, 52,028 vehicles were delivered in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 26% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - The X9 model has shown strong performance, with 1,687 units delivered in June and a total of 13,143 units since its launch, leading the market in electric MPVs [2]. - The upcoming launch of the Mona M03 model is anticipated to boost sales, with a focus on AI-driven features and a competitive price range of 100,000 to 150,000 CNY [3]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, targeting regions such as Australia, France, and Egypt, with the right-hand drive version of the G6 expected to be delivered in Q3 [2]. - The XNGP smart driving system has achieved an 84% penetration rate among active users, with extensive coverage across 283 cities in China [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts vehicle sales of 220,000, 610,000, and 750,000 units for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 50.569 billion, 98.051 billion, and 109.275 billion CNY, indicating growth rates of 65%, 94%, and 11% [5]. - The projected net profit for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be -5.7 billion, -0.72 billion, and 2.932 billion CNY, respectively, showing a potential turnaround in profitability [5][6]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is estimated at 50.569 billion CNY, with a significant growth rate of 64.8% compared to the previous year [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned to leverage its new model launches and smart driving technology to enhance its market share and financial performance [5][6]. - The focus on AI integration in vehicles is expected to differentiate the company in the competitive electric vehicle market [3][4].

汽车 车路云一体化试点公布,产业迎来规模化发展机遇 行业事件: 7 月 3 日,工信部联合公安部、自然资源部、住房和城乡建设部、交通运输 部发布通知,公布了 20 个智能网联汽车"车路云一体化"应用试点城市名 单,名单涵盖北京、上海、广州、深圳等国内主要城市。 "车路云一体化"首批试点城市名单正式公布 此次"车路云一体化"应用试单城市申报超过 30 个,最终 20 个城市进入 首批试点名单。名单包括北上广深等核心城市,还包括武汉、杭州、成都、 合肥、济南等省会城市,以及十堰、鄂尔多斯等地级市,实现了不同层级、 不同类型的城市覆盖,有助于推动"车路云一体化"更广泛的应用,为其 在全国其他城市推广和复制提供实践经验和数据支持。此次"车路云一体 化"首批试点城市名单的公布意味我国智能网联车路云规模化建设有望正 式启动,标志着"车路云一体化"进入规模化落地发展的新阶段。 "车路云一体化"规模化建设有望催生近千亿市场 随着"车路云一体化"首批试点名单的公布,相关城市的车路云一体化项 目建设规模有望近千亿元。近期,北京、武汉、福州、鄂尔多斯等地密集开 启"车路云一体化"项目建设,北京项目招标金额接近百亿,湖北武汉车 路云 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electronic industry [5]. Core Insights - The acceleration of AI edge innovation is expected to drive a new replacement cycle in the consumer electronics sector, particularly with the introduction of AI PCs and smart assistants [2][20]. - The demand for computing power is entering a new phase, with AI server growth projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30% [3]. - The establishment of the National Big Fund Phase III is anticipated to support the growth of the semiconductor industry, with a focus on domestic fab construction and related equipment [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Industry Overview - The electronic industry experienced a decline of 11.88% in the first half of 2024, ranking 25th among major industries [13]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to maintain a significant market share, with sales expected to reach $37.2 billion by 2025 [4]. 2. AI Edge Driving Industry Recovery - The global smartphone shipment in Q1 2024 was approximately 289 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.74% [20]. - Lenovo and Microsoft have launched AI PCs, which are expected to stimulate demand for new devices [34][49]. 3. New Era of AI and Computing Power Demand - The rapid growth in the number of large AI models is creating a significant demand for computing power, particularly in AI servers and high-speed network systems [3]. - The report highlights the increasing requirements for high-quality PCB due to the high-load working environments of AI applications [3]. 4. National Big Fund Phase III Supporting Semiconductor Growth - The National Big Fund Phase III was established with a registered capital of 334 billion yuan, significantly higher than previous phases, to accelerate domestic semiconductor development [4]. - Companies such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei are recommended for investment due to their expected benefits from the expansion of semiconductor manufacturing [4]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in the AI consumer electronics supply chain and semiconductor recovery, with specific companies highlighted for their potential growth [5].

银行/非银金融 央行借债影响解析 ➢ 行业事件: 7 月 1 日,中国人民银行公告决定于近期面向部分公开市场业务一级交易 商开展国债借入操作。借入国债是指央行通过银行等以及交易商借入国债, 随后在二级市场上抛售国债,同时约定偿还国债的期限。从操作层面来看, 央行借入国债的操作类似于股票市场上的融券业务。 ➢ 核心目的:维护长端收益率保持在合理区间,防范系统性风险 今年以来,10 年期国债收益率持续下行并突破 2.5%的下限,最低下行至 2.21%的水平,收益率曲线趋于平坦。1)核心目的一:维护长端收益率保 持在合理区间。从市场运行实践来看,10 年期国债收益率的合理区间大概 在 2.5%-3%。4 月以来监管持续发声引导长端利率重回合理区间,且表态愈 发坚决。4 月央行在一季度货币政策执行报告中提到警惕长期收益率波动 的风险,随后陆家嘴论坛上指出要特别关注一些非银主体大量持有中长期 债券的期限错配和利率风险。但从实际效果来看,前期系列发声影响钝化, 故此次央行借券意在能压降国债价格,引导长端利率重回 2.5%-3%的区间。 2)核心目的二:长端利率持续走低或将形成金融风险积累,监管当前关注 防范系统性风险。资 ...

非银金融 业绩前瞻——保险净利润有望改善,银证业绩尚需修复 ➢ 券商:高基数下业绩有所承压,预计行业 2024H1 净利润 yoy-17.6% 预计券商板块2024H1业绩有所承压,预计行业2024H1营业收入yoy-14.5%, 净利润 yoy-17.6%。24YTD 日均股票成交量小幅回落,同比-8%。预计券商 板块 1H24E 经纪业务收入同比-10%,其中 Q2 单季 yoy-10.7%/qoq+7.1%。 投资业务在去年同期高基数下有所承压,预计券商板块 1H24E 投资业务收 入同比-15.7%,其中 Q2 单季 yoy+4.4%/qoq+15.8%。2024 年以来券商股权 融资规模大幅收缩,预计券商板块 1H24E 投行业务收入同比-37.9%,其中 Q2 单季 yoy-39.6%/qoq+18.6%。预计券商板块 1H24E 资管业务收入同比3.1%,其中 Q4 单季 yoy-6%/qoq+0.8%。部分重点覆盖标的 2024H1 归母净 利润预测如下(按同比增速排序):东方财富(40 亿/yoy-5.2%)、中信证券 (103.9 亿/yoy-8.1%)、东方证券(15.1 亿/yoy-2 ...