证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 短期扰动或不改就业市场温和走弱大势 ——美国 10 月非农就业数据点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 美国 10 月非农新增就业人数从 9 月的 25.4 万降至 1.2 万人，不及预期，前值下修。劳工统 计局在声明中表示，飓风可能影响了某些行业的就业，但表示无法量化飓风对全美就业人数、 工时或收入的影响。失业率从 9 月的 4.051%上升至 10 月的 4.145%，持平预期。10 月劳动参 与率 62.6%，较上月下降 0.1pct。10 月份平均时薪环比同比都小幅上行。期货市场预期美联 储 11 月降息的概率上升，11 月降息的概率接近 100%。我们认为今年继续降息是大概率，美 国经济仍有韧性，就业市场数据总体符合预期的情况下，美联储大概率继续小幅降息。 |分析师及联系人 王博群 方诗超 SAC：S0590524010002 SAC：S0590523030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 27 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月06日 宏观点评 短 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3][9]. Core Insights - The light industry sector's revenue in Q3 2024 decreased by 0.85% year-on-year to 156.34 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 26.03% to 7.96 billion yuan [2][9]. - The overall performance is expected to stabilize, with government subsidies anticipated to boost consumer demand and revive the upstream and downstream markets [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Light Industry - Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 0.85% year-on-year to 1563.38 billion yuan, while the cumulative revenue for Q1-3 increased by 2.24% to 4453.82 billion yuan [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 dropped by 26.03% to 79.56 billion yuan, with a cumulative decrease of 1.82% for Q1-3 [9][19]. 2. Home Furnishing - Q3 2024 revenue for the home furnishing sector decreased by 0.52% to 635.39 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.20% for Q1-3 [21][25]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 fell by 22.59% to 4.649 billion yuan [21][23]. 3. Paper Industry - Q3 2024 revenue in the paper sector decreased by 6.34% to 461.62 billion yuan, with net profit down by 73.95% to 5.18 billion yuan [3][19]. - The report anticipates a potential recovery in profitability in Q4 due to improved demand and stabilization of paper prices [11][19]. 4. Packaging - The packaging sector's revenue increased by 1.64% year-on-year to 319.99 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 8.36% to 20.49 billion yuan [3][19]. - The paper packaging segment benefited from the recovery in consumer electronics, while metal packaging faced pressure from weak downstream demand [10][19]. 5. Cultural and Entertainment Products - Revenue in the cultural and entertainment products sector grew by 12.20% year-on-year to 146.39 billion yuan, although net profit decreased by 15.04% to 7.40 billion yuan [3][19]. - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands in this segment, particularly in online sales channels [10][19]. 6. Export Chain - The export chain maintained a steady revenue growth, with Q3 2024 revenue increasing by 19.65% [3][19]. - However, profits were impacted by high shipping costs and currency fluctuations, leading to a decline in net profit [11][19]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector that benefit from government subsidies, such as Mousse, Gujia, and Sophia [3][11]. - It also recommends leading companies in the paper industry and strong performers in the export chain [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to stabilize and recover after reaching a low point in performance [1] - In Q3 2024, the overall financial data for pharmaceutical companies showed a decline in revenue and net profit, but certain sub-sectors performed well, particularly medical consumables and chemical preparations [3][15] - The report highlights a significant increase in the heavy holding ratio of pharmaceutical public funds, indicating a positive trend in investment interest [2][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Pharmaceutical Holdings in Q3 2024 - The heavy holding ratio for pharmaceutical public funds reached 10.71%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][6] - The pharmaceutical sector ranked 11th among 31 primary industries in terms of cumulative growth, with a 17.62% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.56 percentage points [6] Section 2: Sub-sector Performance in Q3 2024 - The pharmaceutical industry achieved a total revenue of 596.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.27%, with a net profit of 40.4 billion yuan, down 16.03% [3][15] - Medical consumables saw a revenue increase of 12.19% and a net profit increase of 16.33% in Q3 2024 [3][15] - The chemical preparation sector reported a revenue growth of 2.34% and a net profit growth of 10.48%, driven by new drug sales and the recovery of academic promotion activities [3][18] Section 3: Key Stock Updates - The report recommends focusing on several key areas for investment in Q4, including drug commercialization, international expansion of medical devices, steady growth of brand OTC products, and recovery in the CRO sector [4] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Renfu Pharmaceutical, Hengrui Medicine, and BeiGene for drug commercialization; Mindray Medical and Yuyue Medical for medical devices; and WuXi AppTec for CRO recovery [4][22]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the white liquor sector is experiencing accelerated pressure on financial statements, with industry revenue slowing down and profit growth slightly lagging behind revenue growth. The overall revenue growth rate for key companies in the white liquor sector in Q3 2024 is 2.41%, with high-end liquor, sub-high-end liquor, and regional liquor revenue growth rates of +9.59%, -0.38%, and -15.64% respectively [5][11] - The report highlights that most liquor companies are experiencing slower cash collection compared to revenue, leading to a decline in the quality of financial statements. The overall cash collection growth for key companies in the white liquor sector is 1.50% year-on-year [5][17] - The report notes that product structure upgrades are slowing down, and the gross profit margin for the white liquor sector remains stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.25 percentage points to 82.39% [5][11] Summary by Sections 1. White Liquor: Fundamental Weakness, Slowing Financial Statements - The white liquor sector is facing accelerated pressure on financial statements, with a notable increase in internal differentiation among brands [9] - The revenue growth for the white liquor sector in Q3 2024 is 2.41%, with a significant decline in revenue growth rates for sub-high-end and regional liquors [11][12] - The quality of financial statements is declining, with cash collection growth lagging behind revenue growth [17] 2. Beer: Weak Demand, Continued Cost Benefits - The beer sector is experiencing weak demand, with leading brands facing slight pressure on both volume and price [5] - The report indicates that the cost benefits are continuing, and companies are actively improving quality and efficiency [5][11] - The overall revenue for major beer companies such as Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer has decreased, while Yanjing Beer has shown growth [5][11] 3. Investment Recommendations: Highlighting Investment Value in White Liquor, Focus on Undervalued Leaders in Beer - The report suggests that the investment value of white liquor is becoming more apparent, with a focus on companies like Wuliangye, Guizhou Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu for stable growth in 2025 [5][11] - For the beer sector, the report recommends focusing on undervalued leaders such as Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer, as well as Yanjing Beer, which is expected to benefit from reform [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2024 despite a weak demand environment, which is commendable. Although gross margin was under pressure and expense ratios increased, other income sources helped maintain stable profitability. The company's comprehensive competitive strength and clear strategy suggest it can sustain steady operations in the long term. The projected revenue growth for 2024-2026 is expected to be +13%/+8%/+12% year-on-year, with corresponding valuations of 22X/20X/18X [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.603 billion, a year-on-year increase of +8.58%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.263 billion, up +16.00% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.839 billion, an increase of +8.26% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.217 billion, a year-on-year increase of +5.04%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.025 billion, up +3.36% year-on-year [6][7]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue growth was driven by its core businesses, with the new energy segment continuing to grow rapidly. The electrical connection segment is expected to see slight positive growth, while the smart electrical lighting segment is projected to grow in the single digits. The overall performance indicates that, apart from the new energy business, other segments are experiencing a slowdown [6][7]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising copper prices. The expense ratio increased by 2.6 percentage points, with sales expenses rising significantly due to accelerated channel development and flagship store construction. However, other income sources, including investment income and reduced credit impairment losses, contributed positively to net profit margins [6][7]. Future Outlook - Despite the revenue slowdown, the company is expected to maintain stable growth due to its strong operational capabilities and effective product innovation. The demand for core products remains steady, and the company is actively expanding into new product categories, which is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth in the future [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Despite low industry demand, the company demonstrates strong profitability resilience [6] - The company reported a revenue of 25.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.05 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year [2][6] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, a 17% increase year-on-year, but a 32% decrease in net profit compared to the same quarter last year [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 25.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30% and a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, reflecting a 4% increase [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, which is a 17% increase year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 32% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] Product Performance - The company experienced an increase in sales volume for key products such as new energy materials (+19%), fertilizers (+41%), organic amines (+15%), and acetic acid and derivatives (+148%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] - In Q3 2024, the sales volume for these products showed mixed results, with new energy materials (+4%), fertilizers (+35%), organic amines (+14%), and acetic acid and derivatives (+149%) year-on-year, but some products saw a decline in sales volume compared to the previous quarter [6] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company maintains a competitive edge in urea production costs, which are lower than gas-based and most coal-based processes, allowing it to sustain profitability despite price declines [6] - As of Q3 2024, the company has ongoing capital expenditures of approximately 4.4 billion yuan, representing 15% of fixed assets, focusing on coal gasification and amine industry chain projects [6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 31.8 billion yuan, 35.7 billion yuan, and 38.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 12%, and 8% [6] - The projected net profits for the same years are 3.9 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 9%, 29%, and 11% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected valuations of 26X/17X/15X for 2024-2026 [2][4][6] Core Views - The company's traditional business revenue continued to decline by nearly double digits in Q3 2024, excluding the consolidation of Roman Smart, with significant profit pressure [2][6] - The company is actively adjusting its strategies, and operational quality is expected to improve, supported by policy stimulus and e-commerce promotions, which may drive a sequential improvement in industry demand [2][6] - The company's revenue and profitability are expected to improve in Q4 2024, driven by internal strategy adjustments and external demand recovery [6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 10.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.17%, but net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 75.6% year-on-year to RMB 0.19 billion [6] - Excluding the impact of Roman Smart's consolidation, the company's traditional business revenue is estimated to have declined by approximately 10% in Q3 2024 [6] - The gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 7.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the consolidation of Roman Smart and intense industry competition [6] - The company's net profit margin attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.2 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2024, primarily due to declining gross margins and increased R&D expenses [6] Business Segments - Traditional e-commerce revenue continued to decline in Q3 2024, while Douyin e-commerce revenue is expected to reverse the previous sharp decline due to lower base effects and changes in operational strategies [6] - Overseas revenue maintained strong growth, providing incremental contributions, while offline revenue remained relatively stable [6] Future Outlook - The company's performance for 2024-2026 is expected to grow by -37%/+46%/+13% year-on-year, with valuations of 26X/17X/15X [2][6] - The company's high R&D investment is expected to translate into product innovation, which may drive future growth [6] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 46.91 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 0.44%, while 2025E and 2026E revenues are expected to grow by 12.15% and 8.17%, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is estimated at RMB 2.81 billion, a year-on-year decline of 36.79%, with expected growth of 46.45% and 13.08% in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [7] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 25.5X, 17.4X, and 15.4X, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company reported its Q3 2024 results, achieving revenue of 9.077 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 38.04%. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 3.093 billion yuan, up 34.90% year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 4.160 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.63% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 1.452 billion yuan, down 6.43% year-on-year [2][6] - The decline in Q3 net profit was attributed to the impact of the consolidation of China Merchants Jinling, with operating costs rising to 1.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.58%. The gross profit margin for Q3 was 40.03%, down 1.17 percentage points year-on-year. Investment income from various toll road companies was 1.202 billion yuan, a decline of 7.13% year-on-year [6] - The company is steadily advancing its investment and operation of toll roads, with the approval of the Bozhou-Fu Highway REITs project and the completion of fundraising for the highway REIT, which raised 3.496 billion yuan. The company is also progressing with expansion projects for the Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu Highway and the Yongtaiwen Highway [6] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth between 310 million yuan and 618 million yuan to enhance shareholder returns, with a loan limit of up to 430 million yuan from China Merchants Bank [6] Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.203 billion yuan, 13.814 billion yuan, and 14.318 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.67%, 4.63%, and 3.65% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.128 billion yuan, 6.573 billion yuan, and 7.016 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.44%, 7.27%, and 6.74% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.90 yuan, 0.96 yuan, and 1.03 yuan [7][8]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The report analyzes the potential impacts of Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election on the petrochemical industry, focusing on fossil energy and foreign trade policies [6][10] - Trump's energy policies may relax regulations on the oil industry and aim to boost U.S. oil and gas production, while tax policies may escalate trade measures against China, with limited impact on most Chinese chemical exports to the U.S. [6][10] - Chinese chemical companies may find opportunities for capacity expansion outside the U.S. [6] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Trump's Policy 2.0 - Trump's victory secures over 270 electoral votes, indicating a shift in energy policy favoring fossil fuels and potential tax cuts for domestic companies [10] - The report suggests that Trump's administration may reverse Biden's environmental regulations and support increased drilling on public lands [11][12] 2. Impact on Chemical Exports - The report identifies that only 4 out of 62 representative chemical products have over 10% export share to the U.S., indicating limited impact from potential trade tariffs [6][19] - The overall share of Chinese chemical exports to the U.S. has decreased, with a notable drop of 21.2% in 2023 compared to the previous year [20][21] 3. Potential Effects on Oil and Gas Prices - Trump's energy policies are expected to influence oil prices positively, with a focus on increasing domestic production [6][19] 4. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the attractiveness of the chemical sector due to its current low valuation, with several sub-sectors showing potential for valuation increases [6][30] - Companies with overseas production bases and low valuation core assets are recommended for investment, including SAILUN, Senqcia, and Hualu Chemical [6][31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The company reported a strong growth in new contracts, with a year-on-year increase of 12% in new signed contracts for Q3 2024, driven mainly by infrastructure construction and dredging projects [5] - The net profit margin showed a slight improvement, with the net profit for Q3 2024 being 49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of only 1% [5] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 9% to 10% from 2024 to 2026, with projected net profits increasing correspondingly [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 536.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 16.3 billion yuan, also showing a slight decline [2][5] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 11.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [5] New Contracts and Growth - The new signed contracts for Q3 2024 amounted to 319.6 billion yuan, marking a 12% increase year-on-year [5] - The breakdown of new contracts includes 286.1 billion yuan from infrastructure construction, 6.1 billion yuan from infrastructure design, and 24.5 billion yuan from dredging projects [5] Profitability and Margins - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 2.7%, showing a slight year-on-year increase [5] - Investment income and impairment losses both increased, contributing positively to the profit [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 830.1 billion yuan, 914.0 billion yuan, and 1,009.7 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 26.1 billion yuan, 28.7 billion yuan, and 31.8 billion yuan [6] - The company is positioned as a leader in China's infrastructure sector, with potential benefits from the "Belt and Road" initiative [5]