证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|石油石化 大化工 2024 年 Q3 业绩总结 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月03日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 成本端原油价格或持续维持中高位震荡，叠加需求端政策落地，在此情景下重点推荐三大投 资主线：一是拥有大体量上游油气资产业绩确定性较强的龙头央企，二是如果消费需求出现 回暖有望获得业绩修复的民营大炼化企业，三是行业龙头竞争优势领先，经营韧性凸显的化 工企业。 |分析师及联系人 许隽逸 张玮航 陈律楼 申起昊 SAC：S0590524060003 SAC：S0590524090003 SAC：S0590524080002 SAC：S0590524070002 陈康迪 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 30 行业研究|行业专题研究 2024年11月03日 glzqdatemark2 石油石化 大化工 2024 年 Q3 业绩总结 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -20% -7% 7% 20% 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 2024/11 石油石化 沪深300 相关报告 1、《 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The overall revenue of the computer industry for the first three quarters of 2024 reached approximately 849.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.58%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 16.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 27.78% year-on-year. The profit growth rate is notably lower than the revenue growth rate, but there is a clear trend of improvement quarter by quarter [5][9]. - The report highlights four main investment themes: AI, trusted computing, industrial digitalization, and data elements, which are expected to provide significant development opportunities for the computer industry [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Analysis for Q1-Q3 2024 - The computer industry faced profit pressure in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total revenue of approximately 849.8 billion yuan and a net profit of about 16.4 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 27.78% [5][9]. - In Q3 2024, the industry saw a revenue total of about 302.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51%, while net profit reached approximately 7.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 27.20% [19][20]. 2. Sub-industry Performance Summary - The server segment showed high growth, with significant revenue increases. For instance, leading companies like Inspur and Unisplendour reported revenue growth rates of 72.83% and 6.56%, respectively [26]. - The industrial software sector also experienced rapid growth, with an overall revenue increase of 9.89% in Q1-Q3 2024 [52]. - Conversely, the basic software segment faced continuous revenue decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.41% [28][31]. - The network security sector continued to face pressure, with a significant number of companies reporting revenue declines, particularly in the case of companies like Electric Security, which saw a drop of 42.33% [33][37]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in high-growth sectors, particularly those benefiting from recent digital economy policies and increased IT demand due to capital expenditure [5][19]. - Specific companies to watch include Unisplendour, Zhongke Shuguang, Kingsoft, Nasda, and others that are positioned well within the industry [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than Market" rating for the automotive industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing upward trends in production and sales due to the continued effects of the vehicle replacement policy and the introduction of quality supply. The fourth quarter is expected to see further growth in the passenger car and parts sectors, benefiting quality domestic and parts companies [2][3]. - The commercial vehicle sector is entering a peak delivery season in the fourth quarter, with performance expected to improve, particularly for leading companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The automotive industry is driven by policy support, with Q3 showing improved conditions and outstanding performance from quality domestic brands. The total revenue for the industry in Q3 2024 reached 872.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.9% [3][8]. - The overall gross margin for the industry in Q3 2024 was 17.4%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year and 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [9][12]. 2. Passenger Vehicles - Revenue for the passenger vehicle sector in Q3 2024 was 519.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the passenger vehicle sector was 15.61 billion, down 21.4% year-on-year and 16.8% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a performance decline primarily due to the accelerated growth of quality domestic brands [3][14]. 3. Auto Parts - The auto parts sector achieved total revenue of 240.5 billion in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the auto parts sector was 12.39 billion, down 4.2% year-on-year but up 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, with performance variations driven by the growth of quality companies in segments like intelligent driving and smart cabins [3][14]. 4. Commercial Vehicles - The truck sector reported total revenue of 97.09 billion in Q3 2024, down 13.3% year-on-year and 15.4% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to short-term demand weakness [3][8]. - The bus sector's revenue was 15.58 billion, remaining stable year-on-year but down 17.1% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit showing a year-on-year increase of 34.8% [3][14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies across various segments, including BYD, Geely, Li Auto, and Xpeng in the passenger vehicle sector, and companies like Delphi Technologies and Huayu Automotive in the auto parts sector [3][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][4]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, the fund's heavy holdings in the automotive sector increased, with a heavy holding ratio of 5.06%, up by 0.61 percentage points from the previous quarter. The overall overweight ratio compared to the market capitalization of automotive stocks in A-shares is 1.19%, which is an increase of 0.57 percentage points [2][7][10]. - Government subsidies for replacing old vehicles with new ones are expected to stimulate automotive sales in Q4, suggesting a focus on high-quality leading companies and high-growth firms within various sub-sectors [2][3][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The heavy holding and overweight ratios in the automotive sector have significantly increased in Q3 2024, with a heavy holding ratio of 5.06% and an overall overweight ratio of 1.19% [7][10]. - The configuration ratios for passenger vehicles and automotive parts have increased, while the commercial vehicle configuration ratio has decreased [7][10]. 2. Domestic Investment - The top fifteen heavy holdings in the automotive sector include BYD, Fuyao Glass, Yutong Bus, and others. Compared to Q2 2024, BYD remains the largest heavy holding, while Chang'an Automobile and Yinlun Holdings have dropped out of the top fifteen [16][18]. - The configuration ratios for passenger vehicles and automotive parts have significantly increased due to the stimulus from subsidy policies, leading to a recovery in passenger vehicle sales [16][35]. 3. Foreign Investment - As of September 30, 2024, foreign investment in the automotive sector remained stable, with a holding value of 109.8 billion yuan, slightly up from 94.6 billion yuan in Q2 2024. The holding ratio is 3.3% [20][23]. - Foreign investors continue to prefer leading companies with strong growth potential, such as Fuyao Glass and BYD [20][23]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality leading companies and high-growth firms across various segments, particularly in light of the increased subsidies for replacing old vehicles. Recommended companies include BYD, Geely, Li Auto, and others in the passenger vehicle segment, as well as several key players in the automotive parts sector [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye (000858) [4] Core Views - Wuliangye achieved operating revenue of 172.68 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.34%, slightly below expectations [2][6] - The company announced a cash dividend policy for 2024-2026, with annual cash dividends not less than 70% of net profit attributable to shareholders and not less than 20 billion yuan (including tax), which is expected to boost market confidence [2][6] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 increased by 2.77 percentage points year-on-year to 76.17%, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 34.02%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points [6] - The company's sales cash inflow in Q3 2024 was 282.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.70%, faster than the revenue growth, likely due to the maturity of bank acceptance bills during the Spring Festival peak season [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - For the first three quarters of 2024, Wuliangye achieved operating revenue of 679.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.60%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 249.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.19% [6] - The report forecasts that Wuliangye's operating revenue for 2024-2026 will be 891.03 billion yuan, 936.08 billion yuan, and 982.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.00%, 5.06%, and 5.01%, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 326.09 billion yuan, 342.66 billion yuan, and 364.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.94%, 5.08%, and 6.51%, respectively [6] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 18X, 17X, and 16X, respectively [6] Industry and Market Position - Wuliangye is positioned as a leading player in the strong aroma liquor segment, with strong resilience in the thousand-yuan price range [2][6] - The company's new products, such as 1618 and low-alcohol variants, are expected to drive incremental growth [2][6] - The liquor industry is facing weak demand, but Wuliangye's market position and product strategy are expected to support stable growth [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in performance with a total revenue of 5.263 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% year-on-year [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 77.87%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to adjustments in product structure [6]. - The company has shown strong channel operation capabilities, with products like Gu 8 and Gu 16 driving growth despite concerns about high inventory levels in provincial channels [6]. - The management's respect for market rules and leading channel operation capabilities support the "Buy" rating [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 19.53%, and a net profit of 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [6]. - The sales cash collection in Q3 2024 was 5.460 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.58%, indicating resilience in the company's financial statements [6]. - The company expects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 23.701 billion yuan, 26.541 billion yuan, and 29.248 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.02%, 11.98%, and 10.20% [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 18, 16, and 14 respectively [6][7]. - The estimated EBITDA for 2024 is 8.778 billion yuan, with a corresponding EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.3 [7]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the liquor sector, with a market capitalization of approximately 76.126 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company’s channel operation strategy, including a shift from channel expenses to consumer incentives, is expected to enhance its market presence [6].

PMI and Economic Indicators - The October PMI composite index is 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from September's 49.8%, exceeding the consensus forecast of 49.5%[5] - Large enterprises showed a significant improvement, with their PMI rising 0.8 percentage points to 51.2%, while medium-sized enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.7%, and small enterprises fell 0.7 percentage points to 47.0%[19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply and demand sub-indices both improved, with the supply index rising 1.0 percentage points to 50.4% and the demand index increasing 0.7 percentage points to 51.7%[21] - Manufacturing firms are showing signs of "passive inventory replenishment," indicating a potential recovery in demand[25] Industrial Production Outlook - Historical data suggests a strong correlation between PMI changes and industrial value-added growth, with a fitting degree of 0.71, indicating that industrial production may continue to rise in October[54] - High-frequency data indicates an increase in crude steel production, supporting the expectation of further industrial production growth[54] Investment and Consumption Trends - Economic recovery may be driven by two main lines: continued improvement in consumption and support from manufacturing and infrastructure investments[7] - Infrastructure-related high-frequency indicators have shown a rebound, with new housing sales area increasing by 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[45] Price Index and Inflation Pressure - The PPI downward pressure may ease, as the raw material purchase price index rose to 52.4%, up 9.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a potential recovery in industrial raw material prices[27] - The finished product price index also increased, suggesting a positive shift in pricing dynamics within the manufacturing sector[27]

Group 1: Economic Conditions - The export chain is experiencing a slight downturn, while the insurance sector remains strong [5][12] - The profitability of the financial sector has significantly improved in Q3 2024, while non-financial sectors continue to see declines in profitability and revenue [5][12] - The net profit growth rate for the entire A-share market and non-financial oil in Q3 2024 is 5.3% and -9.0% respectively, indicating a divergence in performance [5][12] Group 2: Revenue Trends - Revenue growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial oil in Q3 2024 has further declined, with year-on-year changes of -2.05% and -2.99% respectively [5][12] - The TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue growth rate for the entire A-share market and non-financial oil in Q3 2024 is -1.4% and -0.8% respectively, showing a downward trend approaching historical lows [7][12] Group 3: Sector Performance - The profit growth rate for sectors heavily reliant on overseas demand is declining, while sectors with lower overseas exposure are experiencing a more significant downturn [11][12] - The net profit growth rates for various sectors such as automotive, transportation, and utilities have shown significant declines, while non-bank financials and electronics have seen notable increases [12][14] - The overall revenue growth across most industries is negative, with some consumer and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors still maintaining positive growth [14][15]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [5] Core Views - The electronic sector shows a mild recovery in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 914.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 19.15% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.33% [6][14] - The semiconductor sector shows a significant improvement, while the consumer electronics sector is entering a peak season, with revenue growth better than profit growth [8][9] - The profitability of the electronic sector has slightly decreased, with inventory turnover improving [21][7] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Overview: Mild Recovery in the Industry - The electronic sector's revenue in Q3 2024 reached 914.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.15%, slightly lower than Q2's 19.45% [6][14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 40.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.64% [17] - The consumer electronics sector's revenue share increased by 3 percentage points, while the semiconductor sector's profit share decreased by 4 percentage points [6][17] 2. Continued Recovery with Variations Among Sub-sectors - The semiconductor sector's revenue grew by 20% year-on-year, while the consumer electronics sector saw a 26% increase [8] - The profitability of the LED sector remains under pressure, while the PCB and passive components sectors show a mild recovery [8][9] - The net profit growth rates for various sectors in Q3 2024 were as follows: semiconductor 67%, consumer electronics 6%, and passive components 19% [8] 3. Investment Suggestions: Focus on Recovery in the Electronic Sector - The launch of AI-driven products is expected to boost consumer electronics sales, suggesting a focus on the AI hardware supply chain [9] - The report recommends attention to domestic semiconductor self-sufficiency and related industries, highlighting companies such as Zhongwei Company and Beifang Huachuang [9]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|传媒 传媒行业 2024 年三季报点评： 业绩整体承压，关注 AI+IP 及内容周期 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月02日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 近期国家出台政策组合拳，有望推动经济加速复苏、市场情绪回暖。其中传媒板块估值、持仓 比例均处于阶段性低位，向上弹性较大，多个细分板块景气度较高。建议关注：1）游戏产品 周期驱动的业绩、估值修复机会，关注神州泰岳、吉比特、恺英网络、巨人网络、心动公司、 电魂网络；2）2025 年电影票房有望触底反弹，关注头部院线及平台万达电影，重要内容出品 方光线传媒；3）前沿科技及产业趋势（AI+IP）带来的投资机会，关注泡泡玛特、中文在线、 昆仑万维、盛天网络。 |分析师及联系人 姚蕾 丁子然 SAC：S0590524090001 SAC：S0590523080003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|------------------ ...