证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|传媒 传媒行业 2024 年三季报点评： 业绩整体承压，关注 AI+IP 及内容周期 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月02日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 近期国家出台政策组合拳，有望推动经济加速复苏、市场情绪回暖。其中传媒板块估值、持仓 比例均处于阶段性低位，向上弹性较大，多个细分板块景气度较高。建议关注：1）游戏产品 周期驱动的业绩、估值修复机会，关注神州泰岳、吉比特、恺英网络、巨人网络、心动公司、 电魂网络；2）2025 年电影票房有望触底反弹，关注头部院线及平台万达电影，重要内容出品 方光线传媒；3）前沿科技及产业趋势（AI+IP）带来的投资机会，关注泡泡玛特、中文在线、 昆仑万维、盛天网络。 |分析师及联系人 姚蕾 丁子然 SAC：S0590524090001 SAC：S0590523080003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - Overall, the asset quality of national banks remains within a controllable range, with non-performing loan ratios at low levels. As of June 30, 2024, the static non-performing loan ratios for national banks AC and OCI were 0.86% and 0.11%, respectively, which are lower than the commercial bank average of 1.56%. Although provisions are slightly insufficient, banks have time to adjust before the transition period for the new financial asset risk classification regulations ends in 2025. Additionally, as of October 29, 2024, the Shenwan Banking Index PB was 0.52 times, at the 37.88th percentile since 2018. The index's TTM dividend yield reached 4.98%, significantly higher than current risk-free rates and deposit rates, indicating long-term investment value in bank stocks [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Investment as a Hedge Against Cycles - Financial investment is a significant source of interest income for commercial banks, accounting for 22.71% of total interest income as of H1 2024. The average balance of financial investments for 15 listed national banks was 25.79% of interest-earning assets [6][7]. Configuration of Financial Investments - National banks primarily invest in bonds, with a significant portion in government bonds. As of June 30, 2024, the financial investment balance of 15 listed national banks reached 73.06 trillion yuan, with bonds accounting for 87.74% of this total. Government bonds made up 67.84% of the bond investments, showing a gradual increase over the years [9][13][12]. Asset Quality of Financial Investments - The overall asset quality of financial investments is controllable, but the non-performing coverage ratio needs improvement. As of June 30, 2024, the static non-performing ratios for AC and OCI were 0.86% and 0.11%, respectively, lower than the commercial bank average. The coverage ratios for non-performing assets are relatively low, with AC's coverage at only 57.67% [19][21][24]. Provisioning Levels - The provisioning levels for financial investments are low, with AC and OCI provisioning rates at 0.85% and 0.38%, respectively, as of June 30, 2024. This is below the typical provisioning ratios for various loan categories, indicating a need for increased provisioning [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating a neutral stance on its stock performance relative to the market index [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 2.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.94%, and a net profit of 248 million yuan [3][7]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.271 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.05% [3][7]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 8.037 billion yuan, 10.404 billion yuan, and 11.952 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing growth rates of 42.71%, 29.45%, and 14.88% [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company sold 3.1073 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 49.44% [8]. - The company’s feed production volume increased by 40.97% to 598,200 tons in the first three quarters of 2024 [9]. - The slaughtering volume for the same period was 48,400 tons, up 4.15% year-on-year [9]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company has enhanced its production capacity with the delivery of a new pig farm, adding an annual output of 95,200 pigs [8]. - The company’s breeding sow inventory stood at 232,800 as of June 2024, with a 10% improvement in the full production rate of sow farms compared to the beginning of the year [8]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit shows a turnaround from losses to a profit of 146 million yuan in 2024, with subsequent profits of 608 million yuan and 513 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.12 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.41 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 352 million yuan, down 9.19% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 699 million yuan, a decrease of 12.63%, with a net profit of 101 million yuan, down 22.58% year-on-year. Both revenue and profit fell short of expectations [2][6] - The decline in revenue is attributed to base disturbances and proactive strategic adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing revenue and protecting profits. For Q3 2024, soy sauce revenue was 435 million yuan, down 13.82%, and vinegar revenue was 85 million yuan, down 15.67%. Revenue from distribution and direct sales models was 468 million yuan and 218 million yuan, down 17.32% and 0.43% respectively [6] - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.67 percentage points to 37.54% in Q3 2024, likely due to product upgrades and cost benefits. However, the overall net profit margin decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 14.45% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 3.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.28%, and net profit of 518 million yuan, a decrease of 2.42%. EPS is projected at 0.50 yuan [7] - The company’s revenue for 2022, 2023, and projected for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2.436 billion yuan, 3.207 billion yuan, 3.248 billion yuan, 3.573 billion yuan, and 3.932 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 26.55%, 31.62%, 1.28%, 10.01%, and 10.05% [7] Strategic Adjustments - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment period, which is expected to lead to operational improvements. The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 3.248 billion yuan, 3.573 billion yuan, and 3.932 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 518 million yuan, 610 million yuan, and 691 million yuan [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.058 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.10%. However, the revenue for the third quarter decreased by 8.37% to 4.099 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was 4.120 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.05%, with a third-quarter net profit of 1.371 billion yuan, down 11.81% year-on-year [2][6] - The decline in third-quarter performance was attributed to a delay in dividend payments, which led to a 41% decrease in investment income [6] - The company plans to invest 1.271 billion yuan in the construction of the Danjin Expressway project, which is expected to enhance its growth potential [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.058 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.10%. The third-quarter revenue was 4.099 billion yuan, down 8.37% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was 4.120 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.05%, while the third-quarter net profit was 1.371 billion yuan, down 11.81% year-on-year [2][6] - The third-quarter revenue from toll income increased by 0.93% to 2.598 billion yuan, benefiting from increased traffic volume, while revenue from supporting businesses decreased by 8.05% to 449 million yuan due to a decline in oil product sales [6] Investment Plans - The company intends to invest 1.271 billion yuan in the Danjin Expressway project, which is a significant part of the G4013 expressway and has strong development potential. The project has a total length of 41.35 kilometers and is expected to take four years to complete [6] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 16.216 billion yuan, 17.069 billion yuan, and 17.149 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.74%, 5.26%, and 0.47%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.555 billion yuan, 4.818 billion yuan, and 5.067 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 3.21%, 5.78%, and 5.16% [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.47 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.84% in revenue but a decline of 6.65% in net profit. In Q3 2024, revenue was 35.33 billion yuan with a net profit of 2.44 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.63% in revenue but a significant decline of 36.76% in net profit. Despite the competitive pressure affecting profitability, the company managed to maintain revenue growth in the current demand environment [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.47 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of +7.84% and -6.65%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 35.33 billion yuan and net profit was 2.44 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +4.63% and -36.76% [6]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters were 22.64% and 9.59%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.58 percentage points and a decrease of 1.51 percentage points, respectively [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Key product revenues in Q3 included frozen prepared foods (17.92 billion yuan), frozen dishes (11.28 billion yuan), and frozen rice and noodle products (5.32 billion yuan), with year-on-year changes of -0.12%, +24.12%, and -9.49%, respectively [6]. - Revenue from key channels in Q3 included distribution (29.78 billion yuan), supermarkets (1.71 billion yuan), specialty stores (1.88 billion yuan), and new retail (1.37 billion yuan), with year-on-year changes of +3.23%, +15.07%, -12.41%, and +95.93%, respectively, with new retail growth primarily driven by increased sales through Hema [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 154.85 billion yuan, 170.15 billion yuan, and 185.48 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.25%, 9.88%, and 9.01%. Net profits are expected to be 14.79 billion yuan, 16.46 billion yuan, and 17.99 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 0.07%, 11.26%, and 9.34%, respectively [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Expressway (600350) is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.901 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.94%. In the third quarter alone, revenue reached 7.765 billion yuan, up 19.33% year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 2.516 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.70% year-on-year, with the third quarter net profit at 883 million yuan, down 2.74% year-on-year [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 19.901 billion yuan, a 10.94% increase year-on-year. The third quarter revenue was 7.765 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.33% year-on-year growth. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 2.516 billion yuan, down 5.70% year-on-year, with the third quarter net profit at 883 million yuan, a decrease of 2.74% year-on-year [2][6] Toll Revenue - In the third quarter, toll revenue decreased by 2.4%, with a total toll income of 7.569 billion yuan for the first three quarters, down 7.44% year-on-year. The main highway, Jiqing Expressway, generated toll revenue of 2.445 billion yuan, down 13.62% year-on-year, primarily due to traffic diversion from the opening of the Jiqing Middle Line and the impact of adjacent road expansion [6] Project Investments - The company plans to invest in the Weilai Expressway expansion project, with a total investment of approximately 6.875 billion yuan. The project will be funded with 25% from the company's own funds and 75% through bank loans. The project spans 137.27 kilometers and is expected to start construction in November 2024 and be completed by October 2027. The internal rate of return (IRR) for the project is estimated at 5.5% [6] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 27.085 billion yuan, 28.874 billion yuan, and 30.408 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.03%, 6.60%, and 5.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.233 billion yuan, 3.535 billion yuan, and 3.823 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of -1.95%, 9.34%, and 8.14% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance recovery is driven by high growth in investment income from a low base [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 19.137 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.764 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.43% [2][5]. - The report highlights significant growth in investment income, with a year-on-year increase of 114.7% for the first three quarters of 2024 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 7.359 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.08% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.76% [2][5]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.402 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 88.90% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.94% [2][5]. - The weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.26%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][5]. Business Segments - The brokerage business generated a net commission income of 3.99 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, accounting for 22.4% of the main business revenue [5]. - The asset management business achieved a net commission income of 5.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%, primarily due to a decline in fees from actively managed equity funds [5]. - The investment business reported income of 5.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 114.7%, making up 33.6% of the main business revenue [6]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 26.2 billion, 27.2 billion, and 28.7 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 3.6%, and 5.5% [6][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.9 billion, 9.9 billion, and 11 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.2%, 10.9%, and 11.0% [6][7]. - The report anticipates continued performance recovery driven by a rebound in the equity market and new fund issuance [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a steady conclusion to the mooncake peak season while continuing to expand into markets outside its home province [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.9% to 450 million yuan [2][6] - The company’s gross margin continued to decline, with a gross margin of 33.1% for the first three quarters, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [2][6] - The company’s revenue from mooncake, frozen food, other products, and catering businesses for the first three quarters were 1.44 billion, 770 million, 730 million, and 1.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +0.2%, -1.8%, +13.9%, and +15.5% [6] Market Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its revenue from markets outside its home province, achieving a growth rate of 3.5%, which is higher than the growth rate of the domestic market [6] Cost Control - The company demonstrated good cost control capabilities, with selling expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio for Q3 being 7.3%, 6.7%, and 1.2%, respectively, showing year-on-year decreases of 0.9 percentage points, 0.2 percentage points, and 0.4 percentage points [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.03 billion, 5.58 billion, and 6.21 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 11.0%, and 11.3% respectively [6][7] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is expected to be 520 million, 610 million, and 700 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.1%, 15.8%, and 15.1% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report maintains a positive outlook on domestic equipment upgrades and overseas market demand, particularly for the company's new energy products and specialized products. Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 99.524 billion, 107.487 billion, and 117.855 billion yuan, with net profits of 6.24 billion, 7.527 billion, and 9.567 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 21.56% [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 68.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.11%, while net profit reached 5.309 billion yuan, an increase of 9.71% [6] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 19.094 billion yuan, down 6.37% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 28.28% to 1.603 billion yuan [6] - The company's gross margin and net margin for Q1-3 2024 were 23.63% and 7.74%, respectively, showing improvements of 0.73 and 1.03 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The report highlights a decrease in accounts receivable by 28.83 billion yuan, indicating improved cash flow management [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by domestic demand recovery and overseas business expansion, with projected revenues of 99.524 billion, 107.487 billion, and 117.855 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][6] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.53, 0.64, and 0.81 yuan per share [2][6] Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics including a P/E ratio of 14.2 for 2024, decreasing to 9.3 by 2026, and a P/B ratio of 1.5 for 2024, decreasing to 1.2 by 2026 [7]