Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the chemical industry [4]. Core Insights - The chemical industry, particularly basic chemicals and petrochemicals, has shown strong performance in rising market conditions, with high win rates and payoffs compared to benchmark indices [5][9]. - As of October 21, 2024, the overall valuation of the chemical sector remains low historically, with basic chemicals and petrochemicals at 48% and 18% valuation percentiles respectively, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [21][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance of the Chemical Sector in Rising Markets - The report analyzes the performance of the chemical sector against the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, revealing that in 10 typical rising market phases, the petrochemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite 9 times, while basic chemicals outperformed 8 times, with average excess returns of approximately 19% and 22% respectively [5][11]. - Both sectors have shown better elasticity and payoffs compared to the CSI 300, with basic chemicals demonstrating superior performance [13][17]. 2. Attractiveness of Low Valuations in the Chemical Sector - The report highlights that many sub-sectors within basic chemicals are currently undervalued, with several having PE-TTM ratios below 20%, such as carbon black (15%), nitrogen fertilizer (15%), and potassium fertilizer (17%) [22][25]. - In the petrochemical sector, oil and gas extraction has the lowest PE-TTM valuation at 5%, while oilfield services are at 18% [23]. 3. Focus on Low Valuation Core Assets and Growth Directions - The report suggests focusing on low valuation core assets that exhibit resilience in weak demand and significant elasticity in strong demand, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Juhua Co [26]. - It also emphasizes growth sectors that have shown significant cost advantages and growth potential, such as Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical [27]. - The report identifies promising sectors with improving market conditions, including animal nutrition additives and essential pesticides, as well as companies that have successfully expanded internationally in the tire industry [28]. 4. Attention to Low Valuation Dividend Stocks - The report recommends investing in high-quality, high-dividend upstream resources such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which still hold good investment value [29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company has continued to show high growth and profitability, with a focus on enhancing brand promotion, product market education, and expanding its customer base while actively developing new products and optimizing its product matrix [6][4] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.86 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 92.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.1 billion yuan, up 154.0% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to purchase land use rights to strengthen its R&D and production capabilities, which is expected to further solidify its competitive advantages [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.88 billion yuan (up 91.2% year-on-year) and a net profit of 5.2 billion yuan (up 170.4% year-on-year) [6] - The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 2024 was 93.6% (up 2.35 percentage points year-on-year), with a net profit margin of 54.57% (up 13.3 percentage points year-on-year) [6] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 14.83 billion yuan, 20.06 billion yuan, and 25.69 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 90.0%, 35.3%, and 28.1% [6][8] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 8.56 yuan, 11.81 yuan, and 15.16 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29x, 21x, and 16x respectively [6][8] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 2.09 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.31 billion yuan in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has continued to show high growth and profitability, with a strong focus on brand promotion, market education, and product development [6][2] - The company plans to purchase land use rights to enhance its R&D and production capabilities, which is expected to solidify its competitive advantages [6] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth over the next few years, with expected revenues of 14.83 billion, 20.06 billion, and 25.69 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 988 million (up 91.2% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 520 million (up 170.4% YoY) [6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 386 million (up 92.1% YoY) and net profit of 210 million (up 154.0% YoY) [6] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 93.6% (up 2.35 percentage points YoY), with a net profit margin of 54.57% (up 13.3 percentage points YoY) [6][2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14.83 billion, 20.06 billion, and 25.69 billion respectively, with growth rates of 90.0%, 35.3%, and 28.1% [6] - Net profit projections for the same years are 7.57 billion, 10.45 billion, and 13.42 billion, with growth rates of 152.6%, 38.1%, and 28.4% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 8.56, 11.81, and 15.16 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|基础化工 当下化工怎么看？ 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月23日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 我们回溯了 2005 年初以来上证指数、沪深 300 与化工指数表现，发现不论基础化工还是石油 石化在上升行情中，相较参考指数均有较好的胜率与赔率。在 10 段典型的上升行情中，石油 石化板块有 9 次跑赢上证指数，基础化工板块 8 次跑赢上证指数，且二者均拥有较为显著的 超额收益。进一步地，我们汇总了大化工 28 个细分行业近 20 年的估值情况，发现当前化工 整体估值仍处于历史较低水平，截至 2024 年 10 月 21 日，基础化工/石油石化 PE-TTM 分别在 48%/18%估值分位，板块整体均有较好的估值提升空间。 |分析师及联系人 许隽逸 张玮航 申起昊 陈律楼 SAC：S0590524060003 SAC：S0590524090003 SAC：S0590524070002 SAC：S0590524080002 陈康迪 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 15 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the retail industry [4] Core Views - IP licensing is becoming a key driver for attracting customer traffic, especially in a challenging sales environment [5] - The IP industry exhibits counter-cyclical properties, with growth observed even during economic downturns [9] - The global IP licensing market is projected to reach $3565 billion in 2023, with a 4.6% YoY growth [5] - The Chinese IP licensing market is growing rapidly, with a 9.7% YoY increase in 2019, reaching $10.4 billion [5] - Sanrio's IP matrix, including Hello Kitty, has demonstrated stable growth potential, particularly in the US and East Asian markets [5] Detailed Summary by Sections IP Licensing Industry - IP licensing serves as a valuable tool for attracting customer traffic, especially in a difficult sales environment [5] - The IP industry has shown resilience during economic downturns, with Japan's character industry growing to over 2 trillion yen in the 1990s despite economic pressures [9] - Consumers are willing to pay for the emotional value associated with IPs, with 55.9% of Japanese consumers seeking comfort in character products [9] Global IP Market - The global IP licensing market is projected to reach $3565 billion in 2023, with a 4.6% YoY growth [5] - The entertainment/character sector remains the largest category in the IP licensing market, accounting for 43.8% of the global market in 2019 [12] - North America is the most mature IP market, with the US and Canada accounting for 58% of global IP consumption in 2019 [14] Chinese IP Market - The Chinese IP licensing market is growing rapidly, with a 9.7% YoY increase in 2019, reaching $10.4 billion [5] - The market is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential compared to the US, where per capita IP consumption is $568 compared to $9.8 in China [5] - The rise of the millennial and Gen Z consumer base is driving the shift from functional to emotional consumption, increasing the influence of IPs in purchasing decisions [17] Sanrio's IP Strategy - Sanrio's IP matrix, including Hello Kitty, has demonstrated stable growth potential, particularly in the US and East Asian markets [5] - Sanrio's revenue in North America grew by 131% in FY2023, highlighting the value of IPs in the region [18] - The company's diversified character portfolio in China, including Hello Kitty, Kuromi, Cinnamoroll, and My Melody, is expected to drive stable growth [18] IP Retail Value Chain - The core value of IP monetization lies in merchandise retail, with Sanrio's global revenue heavily reliant on product sales and IP licensing [5] - In the US, retail channels play a crucial role in IP sales, with retailers like Walmart and Target being key players [46] - The profit margins for IP-related retail in the US are higher, with retailers achieving gross margins of 55%-62%, compared to 35%-40% in Japan [47] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong IP operation capabilities and overseas expansion potential, such as Miniso, are recommended for investment [5] - The report suggests that a diversified IP portfolio can help stabilize business fluctuations and drive consistent growth [5] - The importance of both brand power from IP licensors and channel power from retailers is emphasized, particularly in overseas markets [5]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the retail industry, specifically focusing on IP-driven retail opportunities [4] Core Views - IP licensing is becoming a key driver for attracting customer traffic, especially in a challenging retail environment where traditional sales are becoming more difficult [5][9] - The IP industry exhibits counter-cyclical properties, with historical data showing growth during economic downturns, particularly in Japan during the 1990s [9] - The global IP licensing market is a multi-billion-dollar industry, with the entertainment/character sector being the largest category, accounting for 43.8% of the global licensing market in 2019 [12][13] - The Chinese IP licensing market is rapidly growing, with a projected CAGR of 13.1% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 156.1 billion RMB by 2024 [16] - Sanrio's IP portfolio, including Hello Kitty, demonstrates the importance of a diversified IP matrix for stable growth, as reliance on a single IP can lead to volatility in revenue and stock performance [5][33] Key Insights by Section IP Licensing as a Traffic Driver - IP licensing is increasingly valuable as it leverages brand equity and emotional connections with consumers, particularly younger demographics who are willing to pay premiums for IP-related products [9][17] - The IP industry has shown resilience during economic downturns, with Japan's character industry growing to over 2 trillion yen during the 1990s despite economic pressures [9] Global and Chinese IP Markets - The global IP licensing market reached 356.5 billion USD in 2023, with a 4.6% YoY growth, driven by consumer loyalty to beloved brands and characters [12] - The Chinese IP licensing market is one of the fastest-growing globally, with a 9.7% YoY growth in 2019, reaching 10.4 billion USD, and significant potential for further expansion given the low per capita spending compared to the US [16][17] Sanrio's IP Strategy and Market Performance - Sanrio's success in the US and Asian markets highlights the importance of a diversified IP portfolio, with Hello Kitty, Kuromi, and My Melody gaining significant market share in China [18] - Sanrio's revenue distribution shows a 60:40 split between product sales and IP licensing, with licensing contributing significantly higher profit margins (70%) compared to product sales (less than 10%) [29][30] - Sanrio's historical reliance on Hello Kitty led to revenue and stock price volatility, but the company's shift towards a multi-IP strategy has stabilized growth, with Hello Kitty now accounting for only 50% of overseas sales [37][38] Retail Channel Value in IP Licensing - Retail channels play a crucial role in IP monetization, particularly in the US, where retailers like Walmart and Target dominate IP-related sales, with retail margins reaching 55%-62% [47][48] - Sanrio's experience shows that product sales and channel presence are essential for sustainable IP licensing revenue, as they provide direct consumer engagement and feedback [29] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong IP portfolios and retail channel capabilities, such as Miniso, are well-positioned for growth, especially in overseas markets where IP acceptance is high [5][49] - The report recommends focusing on companies that can leverage multiple IPs and expand internationally, as this strategy can mitigate the risks associated with single-IP dependency [49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.314 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.538 billion yuan, down 13.75% year-on-year [2][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 675 million yuan, which accounts for 19.07% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first nine months of 2024 [2][6] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 4.688 billion, 5.881 billion, and 6.625 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -20.61%, +25.44%, and +12.65% respectively [2][6] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.02% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.96% [6] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.254 billion yuan, down 8.00% year-on-year but up 5.09% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 24.54%, a decrease of 2.71 percentage points year-on-year [6] Product and Market Insights - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production is expected to increase in Q3 2024 due to abundant electricity supply in Yunnan [6] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2024 increased by 3.9% year-on-year but decreased by 4.6% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The average price of the main product, anthracite coal, decreased by 13.7% year-on-year and 3.1% quarter-on-quarter [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge in the coal, electricity, and aluminum sectors despite seasonal factors [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 2.08, 2.61, and 2.95 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.9, 7.1, and 6.3 [2][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that the domestic macroeconomic environment remains relatively weak in 2024, leading to a decrease in demand for forklifts. However, the overseas market is expected to maintain a high level of demand as the penetration rate of lithium batteries increases [2][6] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 171.2 billion, 185.1 billion, and 203.8 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 20.8 billion, 22.3 billion, and 25.6 billion yuan respectively, resulting in a CAGR of 14.14% [2][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.59, 1.70, and 1.95 yuan per share for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 127.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.55%, and a net profit of 15.73 billion yuan, up 21.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 41.79 billion yuan, down 2.65% year-on-year, while net profit was 5.66 billion yuan, up 9.07% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin and net margin for Q1-Q3 2024 were 22.67% and 12.91%, respectively, showing an increase of 2.46 and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. For Q3, the gross margin was 25.24% and the net margin was 13.7%, reflecting an increase of 2.87 and 0.89 percentage points year-on-year [6] Market Position - The domestic forklift industry is experiencing stable growth, with total sales reaching 970,680 units in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. The company has established over 60 regional marketing service centers in China, solidifying its domestic market position [6] - Export sales of forklifts increased by 19.9% year-on-year, with the company expanding its overseas presence by establishing over 10 sales companies and service centers in key markets such as Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the domestic manufacturing sector, which, along with the increasing demand for electric products, is expected to drive new growth in the company's overseas business [2][6] - The projected financials for 2024-2026 indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected revenue and profit increases driven by both domestic and international market dynamics [2][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 22.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60% [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.39 billion yuan, 35.11 billion yuan, and 40.52 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of approximately 10%, 16%, and 15% respectively [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.54 billion yuan, 2.10 billion yuan, and 2.66 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 77%, 37%, and 26% respectively [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 6.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16% [2][6]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 31% [2][6]. - The company’s market share in the loader segment was approximately 27% in 2023, maintaining its position as the leader in the domestic market [6]. Business Development Insights - The demand for earthmoving machinery is recovering, with significant growth in the loader and excavator segments [6]. - The company has initiated a mixed-ownership reform, enhancing its long-term competitiveness through equity incentives and convertible bonds [6]. - The penetration rate of electric loaders has increased from 1% in 2022 to over 10% in the first nine months of 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory in this segment [6]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected financials for 2024-2026 include revenues of 30.39 billion yuan, 35.11 billion yuan, and 40.52 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.54 billion yuan, 2.10 billion yuan, and 2.66 billion yuan [7][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.77 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.34 yuan respectively [7][9]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is reported at 59.49% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong resilience in performance during the off-season, with Q3 2024 revenue increasing by 20.1% year-on-year and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 32% [2][6] - The company plans to invest 700 million yuan in the construction of the "Runben Intelligent Manufacturing Future Factory Project," which aims to enhance product innovation capabilities and increase production capacity [6] - The "Big Brand + Small Category" strategy continues, with projected revenues for 2024-2026 expected to be 1.332 billion, 1.701 billion, and 2.101 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 29.0%, 27.6%, and 23.5% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.038 billion yuan (up 26.0% year-on-year) and a net profit of 261 million yuan (up 44.3% year-on-year) [6] - Q3 2024 financial metrics include a gross margin of 57.6% (up 0.11 percentage points year-on-year), a sales expense ratio of 23.5% (up 1.45 percentage points), and a net profit margin of 27.55% (up 2.48 percentage points) [2][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.79, 1.00, and 1.20 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 33.5x, 26.5x, and 22x [6]