Economic Goals - The GDP growth target for 2024 is set at around 5%, with a CPI growth target of approximately 3%, maintaining the same levels as in 2023[6] - The fiscal deficit rate is planned at 3%, with a budget deficit scale of CNY 4.06 trillion, and an increase in new local special bonds to CNY 3.9 trillion, up by CNY 100 billion from last year[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy emphasizes "appropriate strength, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement," with a focus on stabilizing growth primarily in Q2 and Q3[3] - Monetary policy aims for "flexibility and appropriateness," with expectations for further steady easing in 2024 and potential adjustments in policy rates[3] Structural Policies - Real estate policies will focus on stability, promoting the construction and supply of affordable housing while avoiding strong demand stimulation[7] - Industrial policies will prioritize advancing a modern industrial system and supporting the high-quality development of the digital economy[7] Investment and Consumption - Measures to boost consumption include increasing income, optimizing supply, and reducing restrictive measures, alongside promoting effective investment in technology innovation and new infrastructure[31] - The report highlights the need to enhance the quality and investment value of listed companies to stabilize the capital market, encouraging long-term capital inflows[32]

4 Mar 2024 4 [Table_header1] 东曹 (4042 JP) 维持中性 第三条 本数据版权归本公司所有，本公司依法保留各项权利。未经本公司事先书面许可授权，任何个人或机构不得将本数据中的评估结果用于任何营利性目的，不得对本数据进行修 改、复制、编译、汇编、再次编辑、改编、删减、缩写、节选、发行、出租、展览、表演、放映、广播、信息网络传播、摄制、增加图标及说明等，否则因此给盟浪或其他第三方造 成损失的，由用户承担相应的赔偿责任，盟浪不承担责任。 第四条 如本免责声明未约定，而盟浪网站平台载明的其他协议内容（如《盟浪网站用户注册协议》《盟浪网用户服务（含认证）协议》《盟浪网隐私政策》等）有约定的，则按其他 协议的约定执行；若本免责声明与其他协议约定存在冲突或不一致的，则以本免责声明约定为准。 SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer: Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agreement and acceptance with these ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the pig farming sector, indicating that capacity reduction remains the main theme in the industry [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the normal breeding stock target has been adjusted downwards from 41 million to 39 million, indicating an oversupply in the market and a continued low price trend for pigs [4][6]. - It emphasizes the importance of cost control and flexibility in production for companies like Juxing Agriculture and Huadong Co., as well as the low market capitalization of Muyuan Foods [4][6]. - The report also notes a significant drop in prices for various aquatic products, suggesting a potential consolidation towards leading companies in the industry [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs was reported at 13.9 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 0.5% week-on-week. However, the price of piglets decreased by 8.0% to 554 CNY/head [4]. - The new guidelines from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that the current breeding stock exceeds the normal level by 4.1%, leading to expectations of continued low price fluctuations [4][6]. Aquaculture - Most aquatic product prices have decreased, with grass carp averaging 5.7 CNY/jin, down 2.2% week-on-week. The report suggests that the industry may see further consolidation towards leading firms due to the current pressures [4][6]. Poultry - The average price of white feather broiler chicks fell by 17.1% to 3.3 CNY/chick, attributed to adverse weather and previous price surges. Future supply tightness is expected, leading to potential price increases [5][6]. Genetic Engineering - The report identifies investment opportunities in the genetically modified seed sector, driven by supportive policies and the commercialization of transgenic products [5][6]. Animal Health - The progress of African swine fever vaccine development is noted, with potential market expansion for piglets if successful [6].

盈利预测与投资评级。由于需求低于预期，我们下调业绩。我们预计公司2023-2025年归母净利润为2.26亿元（-13%）、2.62亿元 （-16%）和3.14亿元（-16%）。参考同行业公司，我们认为合理估值为2024年24.3倍PE，对应目标价为47.14元（上次目标价为 47.04元，对应2023年24.5倍PE，0%），维持"优于大市"评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------------------------|-------------|-------| | (Rmb mn) | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | | 营业收入 | 695 | | 936 1124 | 1331 | | (+/-) | 20.6% | 34.6% | 20.1% | 18.5% | | 净利润 | 195 | | 226 262 314 | | | (+/-) | 24.3% | 15.8% | 16.1% | 19.6% | | 全面摊薄 EPS (Rmb) | 1.44 | 1.6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6][19] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 20.516 billion for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 11.862 billion, up 18% year-on-year [6][8] - The growth in performance is attributed to record net investment income from margin and clearing funds, as well as increased trading and settlement fees from LME [6] - The average daily trading volume in the cash market decreased by 16% year-on-year to HKD 1,050 billion, with a decline in IPOs and trading fee income affected by reduced A-share trading fees and RMB depreciation [6][7] - The derivatives segment achieved a record average daily trading volume, with revenue from the securities and financial derivatives segment increasing by 23% year-on-year [6][7] - The reasonable valuation range for the company is estimated to be between HKD 320.00 and HKD 333.40, corresponding to a 2024E PE of 30.7-31.9 times [7][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of HKD 20,516 million, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [8] - The net profit for 2023 was HKD 11,862 million, reflecting an 18% increase compared to the previous year [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was HKD 9.36, with projections for 2024E at HKD 10.44 [8][16] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the cash market segment was HKD 8,164 million, down 9.6% year-on-year, accounting for 40% of total revenue [6] - The derivatives segment generated revenue of HKD 6,502 million, up 23% year-on-year, representing 32% of total revenue [6] - The commodities segment reported revenue of HKD 2,188 million, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year [6] Future Projections - Estimated total revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be HKD 22,874 million, HKD 24,639 million, and HKD 26,160 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8%, and 6% [16][19] - Net profit projections for the same years are HKD 13,231 million, HKD 14,246 million, and HKD 14,894 million, with corresponding growth rates of 12%, 7%, and 5% [16][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Budweiser Brewing Co APAC has been downgraded to "Neutral" [3][13]. Core Views - The report indicates that while revenue for Q4 2023 met expectations, overall performance was slightly below expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.8% and a net profit decrease of 6.7% [9][12]. - The company is experiencing a decline in sales volume in the Korean market, with market share estimated to have decreased by approximately 150 basis points [11][12]. - The report highlights a significant increase in average price per ton, contributing to improved gross profit margins, but also notes that profit margins have been impacted by tax fluctuations [12][13]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company achieved revenue of $6.856 billion, with a sales volume of 92.77 million hectoliters and an EBITDA of $2.023 billion [9][10]. - The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of $1.293 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, while sales volume increased by only 0.6% [9][10]. - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is revised to 0.63, 0.71, and 0.77 HKD respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to short-term consumption pressures [13][12]. Market Insights - In the China region, sales volume decreased by 3.1% while prices increased by 14.7%, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and product mix [10][11]. - The Indian market continues to show double-digit revenue growth, primarily driven by high-end and ultra-premium products [10][11]. - The Asia Pacific East region's profit margins have declined by 3.2 percentage points, with revenue growth hindered by competitive pressures and high base effects from the previous year [11][12].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/房地产 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024年03月03日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 第 9 周新房成交同比增速回升、供销比回升 市场表现 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_QuoteInfo] 房地产 海通综指 8.56% 上周1大中城市新房成交情况：  1.02%  2024 年第 9 周 30 大中城市新房成交面积为 156 万平方米，环比前一周 -6.52% 139%，同比2023年-57%。其中一线城市销售面积36万平方米，环比前 -14.07% 一周 148%，同比 2023年-48%。二线城市销售面积 89万平方米，环比 -21.61% 前一周 137%，同比 2023年-57%。三线城市销售面积 31万平方米，环 -29.15% 比前一周135%，同比2023年-65%。 2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 资料来源：海通证券研究所  2024年2月1日-29日30城累计成交面积404万平方米，环比2024年 1 月同期-46%，同比-66%。一线城市累计成交面积 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/机械工业/通用机械 证券研究报告 双环传动（002472）公司研究报告 2024年03月01日 首次覆盖：精密传动平台型公司，新能 源齿轮、减速器等持续发力 [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  公司是中国头部专业齿轮厂商，积极拓展减速器领域，近年来发展快速。 公司40+年专注机械传动核心部件的研制与销售，已成为中国头部的专业齿 轮产品制造商和服务商之一。公司从摩托车齿轮起家，陆续进入乘用车、工 程机械、商用车齿轮等多个领域。凭借齿轮行业多年技术与经验积累，公司 积极布局高精密减速器领域，于 2020 年成立专门从事机器人 RV 减速器的 子公司环动科技。近年来，公司发展快速，2016-2022年公司营收、归母净 利润复合增速分别为25.59%、20.97%；2022年，齿轮业务营收占比超78%， 其中乘用车齿轮营收占比超50%，是公司第一大业务。公司预告2023年归 母净利润为8.0-8.2亿元，同比增长37.44%至40.87%。  齿轮：公司抓住新能源汽车齿轮机会获取领先地位；商用车齿轮有望受益 AMT渗透率提升。 1）乘用车齿轮：抓住车用齿轮行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Hutchmed (China) Limited [13][20]. Core Insights - Hutchmed reported a 2023 revenue of $840 million, a year-on-year increase of 97%, with oncology/immunology revenue reaching $530 million, up 223% [8][20]. - The successful launch of Fruquintinib in the U.S. has led to its inclusion in the NCCN colon cancer guidelines, with initial market sales of $15.1 million [9][20]. - The company expects Fruquintinib to be approved and launched in Europe and Japan in 2024, potentially becoming a key therapy for 3L+ colorectal cancer globally [9][20]. - Savolitinib's global registrational SAVANNAH study is anticipated to submit an NDA by the end of 2024, enhancing its competitiveness through collaboration with AstraZeneca [9][20]. - Sovleplenib received NDA acceptance in China in January 2024 and is preparing for Phase Ib/II trials in the U.S., addressing a significant unmet clinical need in ITP treatment [13][20]. - The company aims to achieve sustainable development by 2025 through reduced R&D costs and global commercialization partnerships [13][20]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to $637 million, $789 million, and $1,058 million respectively, with net profit projections of -$217 million, -$107 million, and $51 million [14][20]. Financial Summary - As of December 31, 2023, Hutchmed had cash reserves of $890 million, indicating a strong liquidity position [8][20]. - R&D expenses decreased by 22% in 2023 to $302 million, supporting over 15 registrational projects [13][20]. - The target price for Hutchmed's stock is set at 43.27 HKD per share, reflecting a 4% adjustment from the previous target [14][20].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/传媒 证券研究报告 行业月报 2024年03月03日 [Table_InvestInfo] 3 月报：央视首部自主文生视频 AI 系列动 投资评级 优于大市 维持 画片播出，2 月国产游戏版号数量再次破 市场表现 百，传媒板块热度持续提升 [Table_QuoteInfo] 32.79% 传媒 海通综指 [Table_Summary] 23.13% 投资要点： 13.47% 3.81%  传媒行业3月报。 2月26日，由中央广播电视总台制作的中国首部文生视频 AI -5.85% 动画片《千秋诗颂》在央视综合频道（CCTV-1）播出。《千秋诗颂》由“央视 -15.51% 听媒体大模型”制作，美术设计、动效生成和后期成片等各环节均由AI辅助制 2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 作，首集《别董大》综合运用可控图像生成、人物动态生成、文生视频等最新 技术成果，播出后引发热烈反响。首播收视份额 4.22%，收视率在所有上星频 资料来源：海通证券研究所 道动画片中高居第一。 相关研究  我们认为文生视频模型的出现将有效缩短 IP 开发时间，降低 IP ...