研究报告 Research Report 8 Sep 2024 中国海洋石油 China National Offshore Oil Corporation (883 HK) 上半年净利润同比增长 25% [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------| | 1H24 net income up 25% y/y [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 | Initiate with OUTPERFORM | | 评级 | 优于大市 OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | HK$19.84 | | 目标价 | HK$24.19 | | HTI ESG | 5.0-5.0-5.0 | | E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) | | | 市值 | HK$966.93bn / US$124. ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (386 HK) at a current price of HK$4.65 and a target price of HK$6.09 [2][19]. Core Insights - The company aims to enhance identification and promote enterprise valuation through share buy-backs and high dividend yields, with a planned annual cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% over the next three years [4][24]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 1,576.1 billion, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 35.7 billion, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year [4][24]. - The exploration and production segment benefited from rising oil prices, with Brent crude averaging USD 83.42 per barrel, up 4.38% year-on-year, and a 2.97% increase in oil and gas equivalent production [4][9]. - The refining segment saw a revenue increase of 2.8% year-on-year but a significant profit decline of 37.6% [12]. - The chemical segment reported a revenue increase of 5.3% year-on-year but incurred an operating loss of RMB 3.164 billion, indicating ongoing challenges in this area [15][17]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 3,218.0 billion, RMB 3,298.7 billion, and RMB 3,331.7 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 72.7 billion, RMB 74.4 billion, and RMB 76.5 billion [3][19]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.60, RMB 0.61, and RMB 0.62 for 2024-2026 [19]. Business Segment Performance - The exploration and production segment's operating profit increased by 14.7% year-on-year, driven by higher oil prices and production levels [9][10]. - The refining segment's operating income was RMB 749.67 billion, but profits fell due to decreased margins on diesel products [12][13]. - The chemical segment continues to struggle, with a reported loss and declining production of key products like ethylene [15][17]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has a market capitalization of HK$812.11 billion (approximately USD 104.16 billion) and a P/E ratio projected to decrease from 9 in 2024 to 7 in 2026 [2][19]. - The report suggests a reasonable valuation of HK$5.54 to HK$6.09 based on a P/B multiple of 0.8 times the 2024 BPS [19].

Economic Overview - Major global stock markets declined last week, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing the largest drop of 5.8%[6] - The IPE Brent crude oil futures fell by 9.3%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 19 basis points to 3.72%[6] - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 0.5% to 101.2[6] Employment and Inflation - In August, the U.S. added 142,000 non-farm jobs, but previous months' data were significantly revised downwards, with a three-month average of 116,000 jobs added[8] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%[8] - The 5-year inflation expectations fell by 15 basis points to 1.86%, while the 10-year expectations decreased by 12 basis points to 2.0%[9] Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September remain at 100%, with a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut[9] - The anticipated total rate cut for the year has increased from 100 basis points to 125 basis points, with expectations of 50 basis points cuts in both November and December[12] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to cut rates in September, while the Bank of Japan may continue to raise rates[16] European Economic Indicators - In July, the Eurozone's retail sales index showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a narrowing of the previous month's decline by 0.3 percentage points[14] - The Eurozone PPI year-on-year decline was -2.1%, an improvement of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[14]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 Sep 2024 香港美国其他金融服务 Hong Kong US Other Financial Services 虚拟资产周报：市场低迷运行中 Crypto Weekly: A Gloomy Week 周琦 Nicole Zhou, CFA nicole.q.zhou@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 涨跌幅回顾 9/02-9/06，BTC -9.7%，ETH -12.0%，SOL -10.9%。标普 500 -3.3%、纳斯达克综合指数-4.7%、上证综指-2.7%，恒生指 数-1.9%，黄金-0.2%。 重点关注事件 ETH 价格下跌原因及影响： - 链上活动自 3 月中的峰值减少。平均 gas 费自 2015 年发布以来降低到最低水平，源于 ETH 主网缺乏创新应 用，研发者和用户转移至更快成本更低的 Layer 2 网络，或者用户体验更好的其他 Lay ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Sep 2024 中国电新与火电 China (A-share) Power Equipment & New Energy & Thermal Power 国际能源与 ESG 周报 (8/26-9/1): 中国发布《中国的能源转型》白皮书，美国先进能 源联合会称 FERC 需要更多的改革 Global Energy and ESG Updates: China released "China's Energy Transformation", and the U.S. Advanced Energy United Said FERC Needs More Reforms 杨斌 Bin Yang 余小龙 Bruce Yu 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao bin.yang@htisec.com bruce.xl.yu@htisec.com olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - Genesis Minerals achieved gold production of 134,451 ounces in FY24, a year-on-year increase of 501%[1] - The company met its production target of 130,000-140,000 ounces[1] - The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) was A$2,356 per ounce, aligning with the target range of A$2,300-2,400 per ounce[1] Group 2: Cost Management - AISC was approximately 5% below the company's budget due to successful drilling and model updates[5] - The grinding cost at Laverton and mining cost at GMS were successfully reduced[5] Group 3: Project Highlights - Gwalia delivered 723,128 tonnes of ore, yielding 125,612 ounces of gold at a grade of 5.40 g/t[7] - Admiral delivered 556,195 tonnes of ore with a grade of 1.17 g/t, resulting in 20,876 ounces of gold[7] - Ulysses site infrastructure was established with a capital expenditure of A$639 million, 55% ahead of the five-year plan[7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Genesis Minerals plans to further develop soft ore at Gwalia over the next five years, extending mining depth and width[8] - Overall ore output and capital investment are expected to increase year by year[8] Group 5: Risks - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected mine development activities and significant fluctuations in gold prices[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a current price of HK$6.20 and a target price of HK$6.66 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has successfully enhanced operational efficiency through business restructuring and cost-saving measures, achieving a total revenue of HKD 27.496 billion in 2024H1, a decrease of 5.76% year-on-year, while core profit increased by 2.21% to HKD 3.186 billion [8][12]. - The company's strategic focus on green energy is showing promise, with significant growth in its renewable energy initiatives, including a 51% year-on-year increase in the production of SAF and HVO [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 56.971 billion for Dec-23A, with projections of HKD 59.777 billion for Dec-24E, HKD 62.446 billion for Dec-25E, and HKD 64.947 billion for Dec-26E [4][12]. - The attributable net profit for Dec-23A was HKD 6.070 billion, with estimates of HKD 6.467 billion for Dec-24E, HKD 6.690 billion for Dec-25E, and HKD 6.897 billion for Dec-26E [4][12]. Business Segments - The Hong Kong gas sales volume remained flat year-on-year at 14,932 million megajoules, while the mainland urban gas business saw a 6.76% increase in sales volume [5][10]. - The company is actively developing hydrogen energy and green methanol businesses, with a green hydrogen pilot project expected to produce 330 kilograms of hydrogen daily by 2025 [5][9]. Growth Opportunities - The mainland business has shown significant growth, with urban gas sales volume reaching 18.63 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.76% [10]. - The company is focusing on high-quality industrial customers and energy management for public institutions, achieving a 3.13% increase in industrial gas sales and a 9.29% increase in commercial gas sales [10]. Green Energy Initiatives - The company's EcoCeres produced 176,000 tons of SAF and HVO in the first half of the year, with future green methanol production capacity expected to reach 120,000 tons annually [11]. - The cumulative photovoltaic grid-connected scale reached 2.1GW, with power generation increasing by 1.4 times year-on-year to 6.8 billion kWh [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Wanhua Chemical Group Core Views - Wanhua Chemical Group reported a revenue of 97.067 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.77% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.174 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.54% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to invest 42.14 billion yuan in major projects in 2024, focusing on high-end polyethylene and new material parks [9] - R&D expenses for the first half of 2024 were 2.081 billion yuan, accounting for 2.14% of revenue [9] Company Updates - On August 13, 2024, Wanhua Chemical disclosed its semi-annual report, highlighting a revenue increase and a slight decline in net profit [4] - The company announced a planned maintenance shutdown of its 750,000 tons/year PDH unit starting August 25, 2024, for approximately 45 days [4] - A cash dividend of 0.52 yuan per share was announced, totaling approximately 1.633 billion yuan [4] Industry Updates - The MDI market saw mixed price movements in August, with the average price of MDI at 17,400 yuan/ton, down 1.14% year-on-year [21] - The global demand for MDI is projected to reach 9.425 million tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of around 5% [31] - The downstream demand for MDI is primarily driven by the white goods sector, which accounts for 49.89% of consumption [34] R&D and Capital Expenditure - The company’s R&D expenses and capital expenditures have been increasing, with a focus on optimizing existing processes and developing new materials [6][9] - In 2024, the company plans to invest significantly in projects related to lithium battery materials and high-performance materials [9] Employee Structure - In 2023, Wanhua Chemical recruited over 5,000 employees, with 4,079 in R&D, representing 14.04% of the total workforce [10] Dividend Policy - Since its listing, Wanhua Chemical has distributed a total of 41.273 billion yuan in cash dividends, maintaining a policy of distributing at least 30% of distributable profits in cash annually for the next three years [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 4.00, representing a 17% downside from the current price [5] Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation with the help of Pang Donglai and self-adjustment, aiming to improve user experience through product quality, store environment, and service [5] - Despite industry challenges, the company retains advantages in fresh produce supply chain, with potential for profit recovery if supply chain reforms and management optimization prove effective [5] - Online business has shown improvement, with reduced losses and increased coverage, contributing 20.8% of total revenue in 1H24 [3][5] Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue was RMB 37.78 billion, down 10.11% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 275 million, down 26.34% YoY [1][2] - Gross profit margin in 1H24 was 21.58%, down 0.41 pct YoY, with fresh and processed food margin at 12.45%, down 0.77 pct YoY [2] - Operating cash flow in 1H24 was RMB 2.94 billion, up 13.63% YoY [1] Store Operations - The company opened 5 new stores and closed 62 stores in 1H24, ending with 943 stores and 865,300 square meters of reserved space [2] - Pang Donglai-assisted stores showed significant improvement, with daily sales increasing 13.9x and 8.2x in two stores after adjustments [5] Supply Chain and Product Optimization - The company optimized its product structure, introducing 20,276 new products and eliminating 22,480 products in 1H24, with a new product introduction rate of 22.5% [3] - Own-brand sales reached RMB 1.28 billion, accounting for 3.4% of total revenue [3] Industry Context - The supermarket industry faces pressure from channel diversion, deflationary environment, and declining consumer spending power [5] - Leading companies with fresh supply chain advantages may see a turning point if reforms and optimizations translate into same-store growth and profit recovery [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "OUTPERFORM" rating to Guangdong Chj Industry with a target price of RMB 6.61 [1]. Core Insights - Guangdong Chj Industry reported a revenue of RMB 3.431 billion for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 229 million, up 10.04% year-on-year [1][9]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.635 billion, a 10.33% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 98 million, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [1][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 1 per 10 shares to all shareholders [1][9]. Revenue Breakdown - The jewelry segment's revenue increased by 17% year-on-year in H1 2024, with a net addition of 52 jewelry stores [2][10]. - Proprietary trading revenue was RMB 1.725 billion, down 3.98% year-on-year, while franchise revenue rose to RMB 1.647 billion, up 43.66% year-on-year [2][10]. - As of June 30, 2024, the company had a total of 1,451 jewelry stores, with plans to increase franchise stores by over 300 in 2024 and reach 2,000 stores by 2025 [2][10]. Segment Performance - Fashion jewelry revenue was RMB 1.65 billion, up 5.97% year-on-year, while traditional gold jewelry revenue reached RMB 1.48 billion, up 31.37% year-on-year [2][10]. - The jewelry segment's net profit margin improved, with revenue of RMB 3.28 billion and a net profit of RMB 237 million, marking a 21.63% increase year-on-year [11]. Financial Metrics - The company updated its earnings forecast, projecting revenues of RMB 6.823 billion, RMB 7.802 billion, and RMB 8.769 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits of RMB 391 million, RMB 454 million, and RMB 514 million respectively [5][12]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 24.15%, down 2.75 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product mix [3][11]. - The period expense ratio decreased by 3.15 percentage points in Q2 2024, with total period expenses of RMB 230 million, down 10.04% year-on-year [3][11].