[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/金融/券商 证券研究报告 国元证券（000728）公司半年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 二季度自营大幅增长，上半年净利润同比 +9.4% [Table_Summary] 投资要点：公司区域优势与政策优势叠加，精耕细作安徽市场并扩展 省外业务。2024 年上半年自营表现亮眼驱动业绩增长。我们认为合理 目标价 8.20 元，维持"优于大市"评级。 【事件】国元证券发布 2024 年上半年业绩：2024 年上半年公司实现营业收入 30.8 亿元，同比-0.8%；归母净利润 10.0 亿元，同比+9.4%；对应 EPS 0.23 元，ROE 2.8%， 同比+0.1pct。第二季度季度实现营业收入 16.8 亿元，同比+7.7%，环比+19.7%； 归母净利润 5.4 亿元，同比+36.4%，环比+16.1%。 经纪业务保持稳健，业务排名有所提升。2024 年上半年全市场日均股基交易额 9616 亿元，同比-6.4%，两融余额 14809 亿元，较年初-10.3%。在此背景下，公司 2024 年上半年经纪业务收入 4.4 亿元，同比-8.5%，占营业收入比重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of RMB 16.97, based on a 2024 PE of 70x [5][14]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024H1, but management remains confident in achieving positive year-on-year growth for key operating indicators in 2024 [9][14]. - The low-altitude economy business is progressing steadily and is expected to become a significant performance driver, with strategic cooperation agreements signed with over 10 cities [10][14]. - The company is actively exploring data element business, transitioning from data operation to becoming a data product service provider, enhancing its competitive edge in urban governance [11][14]. - The introduction of unmanned grid vehicles aligns with the trend of vehicle-road-cloud integration, enhancing municipal facility inspection and environmental monitoring capabilities [12][14]. - The "One Network Unified Management" initiative supports smart city development, with successful projects implemented across various provinces, enhancing the company's industry competitiveness [13][14]. Financial Summary - In 2024H1, the company reported revenue of RMB 539 million, down 27.03% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 71.96 million, down 48.58% year-on-year [9][14]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is RMB 151 million, 190 million, and 232 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS projected at RMB 0.24, 0.31, and 0.37 [14]. - The company's revenue is expected to recover in the coming years, with a projected growth rate of 10.2% in 2024 and 24.3% in 2025 [3][14]. Business Development - The company is implementing the "Star Plan" in various cities, which is expected to bring new growth points in the low-altitude economy sector [10][14]. - The focus on data value realization and the development of a comprehensive low-altitude airspace management system are key strategies for future growth [11][14]. - The successful deployment of unmanned grid vehicles in multiple cities demonstrates the company's commitment to innovation and efficiency in urban management [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 9.02 based on a 2024 EPS of RMB 0.82 and a PE of 11x [3][11]. Core Insights - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 17.25 billion, a decrease of 50.84% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.46 billion, down 64.7% year-on-year [8][11]. - The natural gas segment faced significant challenges, with total sales of 2.18 billion cubic meters, a decline of 57.00% year-on-year, while LNG production increased by 18.51% to 0.37 billion cubic meters due to project advancements [8][10]. - Coal sales slightly decreased, with raw coal production at 9.77 million tons, down 17.80% year-on-year, and total coal sales at 15.71 million tons, down 2.66% year-on-year [9][10]. - The Malang Coal Mine project received approval and is expected to contribute significantly in H2 2024, with an approved capacity of 10 million tons/year [9][10]. - The hydrogen energy demonstration project is operational, meeting design standards with a hydrogen production capacity of 1000Nm³/h and a refueling station capacity of 2000kg/d [10][11]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 50.43 billion, reflecting an 18.0% decrease from 2023, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [4][6]. - Net profit is expected to recover to RMB 5.42 billion in 2024, with EPS projected at RMB 0.82, increasing to RMB 1.24 by 2026 [3][4]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 16.3% in 2023 to 22.4% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Haidilao International Holding, with a target price of RMB 15.6 per share, corresponding to HKD 17.0 per share [4][9]. Core Insights - Haidilao reported a revenue of RMB 21.49 billion for 1H24, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.7% to RMB 2.04 billion, primarily due to changes in net exchange gains and losses and the cancellation of VAT deduction policy in Mainland China. The core operating profit increased by 13.0% to RMB 2.80 billion [2][9]. - The company plans to distribute RMB 1.94 billion in dividends, resulting in a payout ratio of 95% and a dividend yield of approximately 3.1% [2][9]. - The revenue breakdown shows that restaurant revenue was RMB 20.41 billion, with significant growth in Tier-3 and below cities, while takeaway revenue grew by 23.3% to RMB 0.58 billion [2][9]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For 1H24, the total revenue was RMB 21.49 billion, with restaurant revenue contributing RMB 20.41 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year. Revenue from Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3 cities, and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan were RMB 3.59 billion, RMB 8.00 billion, RMB 8.16 billion, and RMB 0.70 billion, respectively [2][9]. - The average customer transaction value decreased by 5.3% to RMB 97.4, while the average seat turnover rate increased by 27.3% to 4.2 times per day [2][9]. Cost Structure and Management - Raw materials and consumables costs increased by 9.1% to RMB 8.39 billion, accounting for 39.0% of revenue, while employee costs rose by 24.0% to RMB 7.16 billion, making up 33.3% of revenue [2][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in depreciation and amortization costs by 11.1% to RMB 1.33 billion, which accounted for 6.2% of revenue [2][9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in store openings, introducing a franchise model and implementing the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate new restaurant brands [2][4]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are expected to be RMB 45.433 billion, RMB 49.094 billion, and RMB 53.178 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 8.1%, and 8.3%, respectively [4][9].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/金融/券商 证券研究报告 国元证券（000728）公司半年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 二季度自营大幅增长，上半年净利润同比 +9.4% [Table_Summary] 投资要点：公司区域优势与政策优势叠加，精耕细作安徽市场并扩展 省外业务。2024 年上半年自营表现亮眼驱动业绩增长。我们认为合理 目标价 8.20 元，维持"优于大市"评级。 【事件】国元证券发布 2024 年上半年业绩：2024 年上半年公司实现营业收入 30.8 亿元，同比-0.8%；归母净利润 10.0 亿元，同比+9.4%；对应 EPS 0.23 元，ROE 2.8%， 同比+0.1pct。第二季度季度实现营业收入 16.8 亿元，同比+7.7%，环比+19.7%； 归母净利润 5.4 亿元，同比+36.4%，环比+16.1%。 经纪业务保持稳健，业务排名有所提升。2024 年上半年全市场日均股基交易额 9616 亿元，同比-6.4%，两融余额 14809 亿元，较年初-10.3%。在此背景下，公司 2024 年上半年经纪业务收入 4.4 亿元，同比-8.5%，占营业收入比重 ...

Nicole Zhou nicole.q.zhou@htisec.com [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/金融/券商 证券研究报告 兴业证券（601377）公司半年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 二季度自营表现出色，单季净利润环比增 长 [Table_Summary] 投资要点：公司二季度自营表现出色，财富管理业务方面持续赋能投 顾业务，母公司资管规模持续提升。合理目标价 6.68 元/股，维持"优 于大市"。 【事件】兴业证券发布 2024 年上半年业绩：实现营业收入 53.9 亿元，同比-22.3%； 归母净利润 9.4 亿元，同比-47.6%；对应 EPS 0.10 元，ROE 1.7%，同比-1.7pct。第 二季度季度实现营业收入 30.1 亿元，同比+8.9%，环比+26.8%；归母净利润 6.1 亿元，同比-36.6%，环比+86.9%。 2024 年上半年经纪业务收入承压，赋能投顾业务。2024 年半年度全市场日均股 基交易额 9616 亿元，同比-6.4%，两融余额 14809 亿元，较年初-10.3%。在此背 景下，2024 年上半年公司经纪业务收入 9.3 亿元 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in net capital inflow, with a total of 22.5 billion yuan last week compared to 9.6 billion yuan the previous week [1][2]. Capital Inflow Summary - The net inflow from equity funds was 2.3 billion yuan, down from 3.6 billion yuan the previous week [2]. - The net inflow from ETFs was 22.2 billion yuan, slightly down from 23.7 billion yuan the previous week [2]. - The estimated net inflow from Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect was 4.7 billion yuan, up from 1.7 billion yuan the previous week [2]. - The total IPO issuance was 0.4 billion yuan, down from 1.8 billion yuan the previous week [14]. Market Sentiment Indicators - The weekly turnover rate was 239%, placing it in the 38th percentile historically over the past five years [3]. - The proportion of financing transactions was 7.49%, which is in the 25th percentile historically since 2013 [3]. - The risk premium rate was 4.34, indicating a 3% historical percentile [3]. Fund Positioning - The stock fund's position was 86.0%, an increase from 85.4% the previous week [27]. - The mixed fund's position was 62.4%, up from 61.4% the previous week [27]. - The equity-mixed fund's position was 76.8%, an increase from 76.1% the previous week [27].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 3 Sep 2024 中国互联网电子商务 China (Overseas) Internet E-Commerce Sea Limited 近期最被关注的 4 个问题 Most frequently asked questions on Sea Limited 白玉 Jasmine Bai y.bai@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 东南亚电商平台 Sea Limited （年初至今股价+93.4%），第二季度业绩当日涨幅 12%，年初至今的叙事围绕：1）电 商竞争趋势放缓，增速强，第三季度开始电商将释放利润；2）游戏流水恢复正增长；3）估值不贵，年初 230 亿美 金市值对应 24E 0.24x P/GMV。我们近期在香港和内地的路演中依然把这只票放在下半年电商板块首推之一，但在 路演中有几个被问及较多的问题，以下是对这几个问题我们目前的理解。 点评 1. ...

[Table_MainInfo] 策略研究 证券研究报告 策略月报 2024 年 09 月 04 日 [Table_Title] [Table_AuthorInfo]港股盈利增速持续回升 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心结论：①8 月港股涨幅居前，主要源于海外流动性改善、龙头业绩强劲 以及国内宏观政策发力。②24H1 港股归母净利累计同比继续回升，未来稳 增长政策发力下宏微观基本面或逐步修复，预计下半年港股盈利增速有望继 续回升。③分行业看，24H1 港股材料、信息技术和能源板块盈利改善明显， 医药和地产板块盈利恶化。 市场回顾：8 月全球主要股指多数上涨，港股、美股涨幅居前。A 股方面沪深 300 指数 8 月累计跌幅/最大跌幅为-3.5%/-5.2%，创业板指为-6.4%/-10.8%；港 股方面恒生指数为 3.7%/10.7%，恒生科技指数为 1.2%/10.5%；美股方面标普 500 指数为 2.3%/10.4%，纳斯达克指数为 0.6%/14.7%；其他市场，德国 DAX 为 2.2%/11.4%，英国富时 100 为 0.1%/6.3%，法国 CAC40 为 1.3%/9.4%，日 ...

Economic Development and Manufacturing Upgrading - Japan's economic development and manufacturing upgrading have undergone three stages: high growth led by heavy industry (1945-1973), a slowdown with a shift to knowledge-intensive industries (1974-1991), and a focus on high value-added creative industries (1992-present) [1] - The GDP growth rate averaged 9.3% from 1957 to 1973, while it dropped to 4.1% from 1974 to 1991, and further declined to 0.8% from 1992 to 2023 [12][24] Technological Content and Industry Structure - Japan's manufacturing technology content has seen two significant upgrades, driven by capacity reduction, deleveraging, and resource allocation efficiency [1] - The share of medium-high technology manufacturing output rose significantly from 0.1% in 1970 to 16.0% in 1990, but began to decline after 2007 [28] - The increase in value-added from medium-high technology manufacturing has been slower post-1991, averaging only 0.2 percentage points annually from 1991 to 2022 [29] Policy and Internationalization - Government-led industrial policies have been crucial for Japan's manufacturing upgrades, adapting to macroeconomic changes and international demand [2] - Japan's overseas production ratio has been increasing, with direct investment stock as a percentage of GDP rising from 3.1% in 1985 to 6.5% in 1991 [20] Challenges and Lessons - Japan faces challenges such as manufacturing hollowing out and a decline in the rationality of its industrial structure since 2005 [2] - The government’s strong intervention has sometimes suppressed market mechanisms, which are essential for innovation [2]