[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/金融/保险 证券研究报告 行业信息点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 互联网财险业务新规落地，准入门槛明显 提高 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 【事件】8 月 9 日金融监管总局下发《关于加强和改进互联网财产保险业务监 管有关事项的通知》，对互联网财险业务的准入门槛、展业区域范围等经营要求 进行了调整，并要求已经开展业务的保险公司于 2024 年底前完成整改。 提高了互联网财险业务的机构准入门槛。1）对于互联网保险公司之外的财产保 险公司开展互联网财产保险业务，增加了两项基本要求：①最近连续四个季度 综合偿付能力充足率不低于 120%，核心偿付能力充足率不低于 75%；②最近 连续四个季度风险综合评级为 B 类及以上。2）互联网保险公司开展互联网财产 保险业务，应符合《互联网保险业务监管办法》有关条件，且上季度末偿付能 力、风险综合评级满足前款要求的指标。3）财产保险公司不满足以上经营条件 的，应立即停止开展互联网财产保险新业务。4）保险中介机构开展互联网财产 保险业务相关中介业务，除了应为全国性机构的要求外，还增加了要具有三年 以上财险业务经 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/金融/保险 证券研究报告 行业信息点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 人身险产品预定利率再下调，动态调整机 制提升险企负债成本优化效率 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 【事件】8 月 2 日金监总局下发《关于健全人身保险产品定价机制的通知》，进 一步下调产品预定利率，并建立预定利率的动态调整机制。 全面、分批下调人身保险产品预定利率。①自 2024 年 9 月 1 日起，新备案普 通型产品预定利率上限由 3.0%下调至 2.5%，超过上限的产品停售。②自 2024 年 10 月 1 日起，新备案分红险和万能险产品预定利率/最低保证利率上限分别 由 2.5%、2.0%下调至 2.0%、1.5%，超过上限的产品停售。 建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制。参考 5 年期以上贷款市场报价 利率(LPR)、5 年定期存款基准利率、10 年期国债到期收益率等长期利率，确定 预定利率基准值，由保险业协会发布。挂钩及动态调整机制应当报金融监管总 局。达到触发条件后，各公司按照市场化原则，及时调整产品定价。 规范产品利益演示和深化"报行合一"，鼓励开发长期分 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/金融/券商 证券研究报告 国联证券（601456）公司信息点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 拟发行股份收购民生证券，合并后公司主 要指标将进入行业前 30 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 【事件】国联证券公告拟通过发行 A 股股份的方式收购民生证券 99.26%股份，交 易价格为 294.92 亿元；拟发行股份 26.40 亿股，占发行后上市公司股本的 48.25%。 同时，公司还拟向不超过 35 名特定投资者发行股份募集配套资金，募集配套资 金总额不超过人民币 20 亿元。 整合稳步推进。2023 年 3 月 15 日国联证券股东国联发展集团拍卖收购民生证券 30%股份。2024 年 5 月 14 日，公司公告拟以 11.31 元/股发行新股支付交易对价， 购买民生证券 100%股份，并通过定增募集不超过 20 亿元，用于发展民生证券业 务。此次 8 月公告的重组方案相较 2024 年 5 月的方案主要变化为：1）因员工离 职、退休、主动退出等原因，合计回购及无偿收回民生证券股权激励计划中的 1095.83 万股，并进行减资；2）泛海控股退出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Outperform** rating for Morimatsu International Holdings (2155 HK) with a target price of HKD 7.24, revised down by 29% [8][6] Core Views - The company's revenue growth in 1H24 missed expectations, with total revenue of CNY 3.48 billion, down 5.8% YoY, primarily due to weak downstream demand and delayed revenue recognition from certain projects [2][6] - Overseas revenue grew significantly, reaching CNY 1.95 billion, up 37.2% YoY, accounting for 56% of total revenue, with Asia (excluding China) contributing CNY 1.01 billion, up 92.9% YoY [2][6] - Gross margin improved to 29.6%, up 0.3 ppts YoY, driven by product mix optimization and refined management [2][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders declined 10.9% YoY to CNY 376 million, impacted by accounts receivable impairment of CNY 50 million [3][6] Revenue Breakdown - **By Segment**: - Oil & Gas: CNY 461 million, up 108.2% YoY [2] - Power Battery Materials: CNY 651 million, up 40.4% YoY [2] - Electronic Chemicals: CNY 660 million, flat YoY [2] - Chemicals: CNY 704 million, down 9.0% YoY [2] - Pharmaceuticals: CNY 664 million, down 49.7% YoY [2] - Daily Chemicals: CNY 92 million, down 50.0% YoY [2] - **By Region**: - China: CNY 1.52 billion, down 32.8% YoY [2] - Overseas: CNY 1.95 billion, up 37.2% YoY [2] Order Analysis - Backlog: Total backlog stood at CNY 8.78 billion as of 1H24, down 3.3% from the end of 2023, with pharmaceuticals accounting for 30.2% and chemicals for 21.6% [4][6] - New Orders: New signed orders in 1H24 were CNY 3.16 billion, down 35.7% YoY but up 10.5% sequentially, with Power Battery Materials contributing CNY 1.02 billion [4][6] - Overseas Orders: 76% of new orders were from overseas, up from 70% in 2023, with 70% of the total backlog being overseas orders [6] Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY24/25/26 were revised down to CNY 8.11 billion, CNY 9.06 billion, and CNY 10.12 billion, implying YoY growth of 10.2%, 11.7%, and 11.7% respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for FY24/25/26 is expected to be CNY 879 million, CNY 992 million, and CNY 1.15 billion, with YoY growth of 4.1%, 12.9%, and 15.6% respectively [7] Valuation - The target price was revised down to HKD 7.24 using a DCF model, with WACC adjusted to 10.6% (previously 8.7%) and a perpetual growth rate of 2.5% [8] - The stock is currently trading at FY24/FY25 P/E ratios of 5.2x and 4.8x respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China XLX Fertiliser [2][8]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 687 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.78%. The total operating revenue was RMB 12.178 billion, up 0.26% year-on-year [5][6]. - The growth in net profit was primarily driven by a rebound in the chemicals market and improved performance of wholly-owned subsidiaries. The company has optimized production processes and controlled energy consumption, leading to a gross margin of 19.53%, an increase of 2.03 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The company sold its 100% equity interest in Tianxin Coal Mine for RMB 1.374 billion, which will no longer hold equity interests in the coal industry post-transfer [7][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s sales revenue by product in the first half of 2024 includes: 1. Finished urea: RMB 3.834 billion, up 9% YoY, with a gross margin of 31% [6]. 2. Automotive urea solution: RMB 166 million, down 26% YoY, with a gross margin of 18% [6]. 3. Compound fertilizer: RMB 3.410 billion, up 6% YoY, with a gross margin of 18% [6]. 4. Methanol: RMB 1.291 billion, up 32% YoY, with a gross margin of 8% [6]. 5. Melamine: RMB 397 million, down 4% YoY, with a gross margin of 30% [6]. 6. DMF: RMB 595 million, up 14% YoY, with a gross margin of 13% [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is RMB 1.18, 1.28, and 1.42 respectively, with a target price of HKD 5.16 based on a PE ratio of 4.02 [8]

研究报告 Research Report 25 Aug 2024 浦林成山 Prinx Chengshan Holdings (1809 HK) 2024H1 净利同比增长 148%，重点项目为公司增长奠定基础 2024H1 Net Profit +148% YoY & Key projects lay the foundation for company growth [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM | | | 评级 | 优于大市 OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | HK$7.98 | | 目标价 | HK$9.43 | | HTI ESG | 5.0-5.0-5.0 | E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) | --- | -- ...

Japanese Pharmaceutical Industry Overview - The Japanese pharmaceutical index (TP17PHRM) reflects the overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector, with 46 listed companies excluding drugstores and dispensing pharmacies [2][3] - The Nikkei 225 index includes 13 pharmaceutical companies, with 9 in pharmaceuticals, biotech, and life sciences, and 4 in healthcare equipment and services [2] - The TOPIX index covers 103 pharmaceutical companies, including 38 in pharmaceuticals, biotech, and life sciences, and 65 in healthcare equipment and services [2] Market Performance and Economic Factors - The Japanese pharmaceutical index tends to outperform the broader market during economic downturns and when drug price reduction expectations are moderate [7] - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a long-term positive correlation with yen depreciation, with the index rising as the yen weakened from 2010 onwards [5] - In 2024, the Bank of Japan raised policy rates by 15 basis points to 0.15%-0.25%, leading to yen appreciation and a decline in Japanese stocks [5] Pharmaceutical Market Structure - Japan's pharmaceutical market size remained stable at $73.7 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.8% from 2015 to 2023 [31] - The hospital market share increased from 41% to 47% during this period, while clinic and pharmacy markets showed slight declines [31] - In contrast, China's pharmaceutical market grew from $190.5 billion to $259.8 billion from 2015 to 2023, with a CAGR of 4.0% [31] Drug Pricing and Innovation - Japan's drug pricing system is non-market based, with the Central Social Insurance Medical Council (CSIMC) responsible for pricing and adjustments [35] - Innovative drugs can receive price premiums based on factors such as novelty (70-120%), efficacy (5-60%), and market demand (5-20%) [38] - Japan's patented drug prices are approximately 1/5th of US prices, while generic drug prices are twice as high as in the US [39] International Comparisons - Japan's healthcare expenditure reached ¥45 trillion in 2021, accounting for 8.2% of GDP, with 38% funded by government investment [15][17] - In comparison, China's healthcare expenditure was ¥8.5 trillion in 2022, with 28% coming from government funding [18] - Japan's per capita healthcare spending was $2,314 in 2021, significantly higher than China's $742 [21] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Long-term cost control measures have led to delayed drug approvals in Japan, with 72% of drugs approved in Europe and the US remaining unapproved in Japan as of 2020 [40] - 13% of drugs in Japan's health insurance formulary faced supply restrictions, and 12% experienced supply interruptions in 2023 [41] - The Japanese government is implementing measures to encourage innovation, including maintaining prices for innovative drugs during patent periods and accelerating new drug introductions [44] Corporate Performance - Takeda Pharmaceutical had the highest overseas revenue ratio among Japanese pharmaceutical companies at 89% in FY2023 [11] - Other companies with significant overseas revenue include Olympus (74%), Sysmex (63%), and Astellas (54%) [12] - The share of Japanese companies in the top 20 pharmaceutical sales rankings declined from 45% in 2015 to 40% in 2023 [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 81.06 million yuan in 2Q24, reflecting a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase but a 15% year-on-year decline due to measures taken to control volume and increase prices for ordinary electronic copper foil [8][12]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in the third quarter of 2024, with a full-year breakeven anticipated, driven by the growth of thin film resistors and electromagnetic shielding films [14][15]. - The target price for the company is set at 78 yuan, representing a 37% upside from the current price of 32 yuan [2][9]. Financial Summary - The company's market capitalization is 2.58 billion yuan (approximately 0.36 billion USD) with a current share price of 32.00 yuan as of August 23, 2024 [3][2]. - Revenue projections show an increase from 313 million yuan in Dec-22 to an estimated 970 million yuan by Dec-25, indicating a significant growth trajectory [6][11]. - Net profit is expected to shift from a loss of 68 million yuan in Dec-22 to a profit of 210 million yuan by Dec-25, showcasing a substantial turnaround [6][11]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 28.9% in Dec-22 to 37.8% by Dec-25, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [6][11]. Product Development Updates - The company is making progress in several product lines, including strippable copper, electromagnetic shielding films, and embedded thermistors, with expectations for bulk orders and significant revenue contributions starting in 2025 [13][14]. - The thin film resistors are anticipated to generate high gross profit margins of 70-80%, contributing to the company's profitability in the latter half of 2024 [14][15]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report suggests comparing the company's valuation to semiconductor material manufacturers due to the lack of direct peers in the A-share market [15]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 37% to 210 million yuan, with a valuation of 30 times the 2025 PE ratio applied to the target price [15].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 2024 上半年船舶行业新接订单量同比增 长 43.9%；扬子江船业 2024H1 净利润同比 增加 77.2% [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业运行：24H1 船舶行业新接订单量同比增长 43.9%。根据中国船舶工业行业 协会公众号数据，2024 年上半年船舶行业完工量达 2502 万载重吨，同比增长 18.4%，新接订单量达 5422 万载重吨,同比增长 43.9%,在手订单量达到 17155 万载重吨，同比增长 38.6%。1-6 月，中国造船完工量、新接订单量、在手订单 量分别占世界市场份额的 55%、74.7%、58.9%。出口方面，上半年我国船舶出 口金额达到 206.7 亿美元。 政策更新：中共中央、国务院发布《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意 见》。中共中央、国务院发布《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见》， 提出推广低碳交通运输工具、推动船舶、航空器、非道路移动机械等采用清洁 动力，加快淘汰老旧运输工具，推进零排放货运，加强可持续航空燃料研发应 用， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium, with a target price of RMB 43.94 per share based on a 26x PE for 2024 [14]. Core Insights - Ganfeng Lithium reported a revenue of RMB 32.97 billion for 2023, a decrease of 21.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.95 billion, down 75.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of RMB 7.29 billion, down 48.7% year-on-year, with a net loss of RMB 1.06 billion [10][12]. - The company is a global leader in the lithium ecosystem, possessing unique industrialized technologies for lithium extraction from brine, ore, and recycling, and producing over 40 types of lithium compounds and metal lithium products [11][12]. - Ganfeng Lithium's lithium battery business is expanding, covering various battery types and achieving significant production and sales growth in 2023 [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Ganfeng Lithium achieved a revenue of RMB 32.97 billion, down 21.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 4.95 billion, down 75.9% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 8 per 10 shares [10][12]. - The company produced 104,300 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2023, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year, and sold 101,800 tons of LCE, up 4.6% year-on-year, generating RMB 24.47 billion in lithium business revenue [11][12]. Business Operations - Ganfeng Lithium holds equity in 15 lithium resources, with a total of 48.04 million tons of LCE in equity lithium resources as of the end of 2023. The company is advancing the construction of the Goulamina spodumene mine and Mariana salt lake, expecting production to start in 2024 [12][13]. - The lithium battery business has become a significant performance pillar, with production of power storage batteries reaching 10.6 GWh, up 56.5% year-on-year, and consumer electronic batteries reaching 280 million units, up 71.5% year-on-year [13]. Future Outlook - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is RMB 1.69, 2.27, and 2.88 per share, respectively, reflecting the company's competitive advantage and resource reserves [14].