研究报告 Research Report 21 Aug 2024 中国必需消费 & 可选消费 China (Overseas) Staples & Discretionary HTI 东南亚消费行业 7 月跟踪报告：印尼及越南经济较乐观，消费板块有所走弱 Economic in Indonesia and Vietnam is more optimistic, and the performance of the consumer has weakened [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|------------|----------|------------| | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 安踏体育 | Outperform | 澳优 | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 九毛九 | Outperform | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | 公司 | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) with a target price of HKD 200.10 per share, up 84% from the previous target of HKD 108.61 [14][18]. Core Insights - Kelun-Biotech reported H1 2024 results with revenue of RMB 1.38 billion (+32.2%), gross profit of RMB 1.08 billion (+59.4%), R&D expenditure of RMB 650 million (+33.0%), and a profit of RMB 310 million compared to a loss of RMB 31.13 million in the same period last year [9][18]. - The core product sac-TMT has initiated 10 global registrational trials, with 2 indications having submitted NDA in China. The collaboration with Merck has been optimized, reflecting a dynamic adjustment in the scope of early-stage pipelines [10][18]. - The report highlights significant clinical data from the 2024 ASCO meeting, indicating sac-TMT's potential to provide clinical survival benefits in breast cancer and non-small cell lung cancer [10][18]. Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.38 billion, a gross profit of RMB 1.08 billion, and a profit of RMB 310 million, marking a significant turnaround from a loss in the previous year [9][18]. - The company has a cash and cash equivalents balance of RMB 2.89 billion as of June 30, 2024 [9][18]. Product Pipeline and Development - The core product sac-TMT is expected to be approved in China between H2 2024 and H1 2025, with multiple indications in the pipeline [10][18]. - The report outlines four development strategies for sac-TMT, including first-to-market opportunities and biomarker enrichment strategies [10][18]. - The company has four products currently in the NDA stage, expected to be approved in 2024H2-25H1, including sac-TMT and A166 (HER2 ADC) [13][18]. Collaboration and Partnerships - Merck has exercised its option for SKB571, a bispecific antibody ADC, with a payment of USD 37.5 million, while returning the global rights to SKB315 [13][18]. - The collaboration with Merck is seen as a strategic move to cover a wide range of oncology indications through differentiated ADC pipelines [13][18]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 1.76 billion, RMB 1.53 billion, and RMB 2.36 billion, reflecting a YoY growth of +14%, -13%, and +54% respectively [14][18]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -RMB 230 million, -RMB 1.01 billion, and -RMB 782 million for the same period [14][18].

Investment Rating - Maintains an **OUTPERFORM** rating with a target price of **HK$48.90** [2][4] Core Views - **Revenue and Profit Exceed Expectations**: Pop Mart reported 1H24 revenue of **RMB 4.56 billion**, up **62% YoY**, with adjusted net profit of **RMB 1.02 billion**, up **90% YoY** [2][4] - **Domestic and Overseas Growth**: Domestic revenue grew **32% YoY** to **RMB 3.21 billion**, while overseas revenue surged **260% YoY** to **RMB 1.35 billion**, accounting for **30%** of total revenue [2][4][8] - **Gross Margin Expansion**: Gross margin improved by **3.6pct YoY** to **64%**, driven by higher sales prices, increased overseas business contribution, and improved production efficiency [4][8] Domestic Business - **Retail Store Performance**: Retail store revenue grew **25% YoY** to **RMB 1.47 billion**, with same-store sales up **14% YoY** [2][4] - **Online Channels**: Online revenue increased **34% YoY**, with strong growth in platforms like Tmall and Douyin [2][4] - **Store Expansion**: Net addition of **11 retail stores**, bringing the total to **374**, with further expansion planned [2][4] Overseas Business - **Rapid Growth**: Overseas revenue reached **RMB 1.35 billion**, up **260% YoY**, with **12 new retail stores** added [2][8] - **DTC Strategy**: Direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy focused on Europe and Southeast Asia, with offline sales contributing **70%** of overseas revenue [2][8] - **Market Penetration**: Expansion into new markets like Vietnam, Netherlands, Italy, and Indonesia, with plans to open **50-60 stores** annually [2][8] Profit Structure - **Gross Margin Drivers**: Gross margin improved due to higher sales prices (**+2.7pct**), increased overseas business contribution (**+2.2pct**), and cost efficiencies (**+1.3pct**) [4] - **Expense Control**: Sales expense ratio decreased by **1.5pct YoY** to **29.7%**, while management expense ratio dropped by **2.2pct YoY** to **9.5%** [4] - **Adjusted Net Profit Margin**: Adjusted net profit margin rose **3.3pct YoY** to **22.3%** [4] IP and Product Development - **IP Revenue Growth**: Molly revenue grew **90% YoY** to **RMB 780 million**, while The Monsters revenue surged **3.5x YoY** to **RMB 630 million** [4][8] - **New IPs**: Successful launch of new IPs like Crybaby and Hirono, contributing to a more balanced revenue structure [4][8] - **MEGA and Plush Toys**: MEGA revenue grew **1.4x YoY** to **RMB 590 million**, while plush toy revenue surged **10x YoY** to **RMB 450 million** [4][8] Future Outlook - **Revenue Guidance**: Pop Mart expects **2024 revenue growth of at least 60%**, with overseas revenue growth exceeding **200%** [2][4] - **Profit Forecast**: Adjusted net profit for 2024-26 is projected to grow **97%**, **31%**, and **24%**, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of **22.7%**, **23.2%**, and **23.7%** [4][8] - **Valuation**: The company is valued at **25x FY24 PE**, with a target market cap of **HK$64.8 billion** [4]

研究报告 Research Report 21 Aug 2024 禾赛科技 Hesai Tech (HSAI US) 24Q2 点评：毛利率超预期，但展望 2025 或为时过早 Solid quarter with GPM beat and raise; but too early to look through 2025 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---------------------|---------------|---------------------|------------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 | | | Maintain OUTPERFORM | | | 评级 | | | 优于大市 | OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | | | | US$4.17 | | 目标价 | | | | US ...

研究报告 Research Report 20 Aug 2024 雪天盐业 Snowsky Salt Industry Group (600929 CH) 24H1 扣非净利润同比降 14.3%，食用盐及盐化工产品销量同比增加 Recurring net profit down 14.3% YOY in 2024H1; edible salt and salt chemical products sales increased YOY. [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------|-------|----------|--------------------------------|-----------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 \n评级 | | | | Maintain OUTPERFORM \n ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Stanley Agriculture Group with a target price of Rmb8.45, based on a 2024 P/E ratio of 12.43x [1][8]. Core Insights - In 2024H1, the recurring net profit increased by 15.19% year-over-year (YOY), with operating income reaching Rmb5.672 billion, a 9.04% YOY increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders (NPAtS) was Rmb510 million, up 27.98% YOY [1][4]. - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to increased product sales, particularly in the horticultural fertilizer segment, which saw retail sales of Rmb66.03 million, a 25.50% YOY increase, and a cumulative sales volume of 2.6 million pieces, up 32.65% YOY [4][5]. - The company plans to build a new 1 million tonnes green fertilizer project, investing Rmb533.77 million through self-funding or bank financing, which is expected to enhance production efficiency and competitive advantage in the South China, Southwest China, and Southeast Asia markets [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024H1, the gross profit margin improved to 18.59%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points. The operating income from sulfur-based compound fertilizers was Rmb1.161 billion, with a gross profit margin of 17.66%, while chlorine-based compound fertilizers generated Rmb3.247 billion with a gross profit margin of 18.75% [5][6]. - The company forecasts EPS of Rmb0.68 for 2024, Rmb0.77 for 2025, and Rmb0.90 for 2026, maintaining a consistent growth trajectory [8].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业 证券研究报告 行业信息点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 国铁发布 24 年第二批动车高级修采购公 告，五级修占比 63.90% [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件。根据国铁采购平台，2024 年 8 月 16 日，国铁集团发布 2024 年第二批动 车组高级修采购项目招标公告，本次招标共涉及 472.625 组动车组高级修，其中 三级修 / 四 级 修 / 五 级 修 分 别 为 24/146.625/302 组 ， 占 比 分 别 为 5.08%/31.02%/63.90%。 2024 年以来动车组维保需求呈现高景气，业内招投标量持续走强。从国铁招标 情况来看，2023 年全年国铁集团三级修/四级修/五级修招标量分别为 69/113/108 组，占比分别为 23.79%/38.97%/37.24%。今年以来国铁集团已发布两次动车组高 级修招标项目，包括本次采购项目在内，三级修/四级修/五级修需求分别为 56/268.25/509 组，相比 2023 年全年减少 19%、增加 102%、增加 371%，三级修/ 四级修/五级修占比分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Health International (6618 HK) with a target price of HKD 41.49, reflecting a significant upside from the current price of HKD 23.15 [3][7]. Core Views - JD Health has demonstrated healthy revenue growth driven by increases in platform, advertising, and other service revenues, achieving CNY 28.34 billion in the first half of 2024, a 4.6% increase year-on-year [12][13]. - The integration of online medical insurance is expected to enhance online traffic and penetration rates, with over 350 designated pharmacies in Beijing connected to the JD platform as of the first half of 2024 [15][16]. - The company has established a closed loop of testing, consultation, and medication purchasing services, which is anticipated to drive innovation in pharmaceutical retail [16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 57.4 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, while adjusted net profit is expected to reach CNY 4.34 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.9% [17][18]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was reported at 23.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points, with net profit reaching CNY 2.03 billion, a 30.2% increase [14][18]. - The number of active users reached 180 million, a 7.2% increase, and the number of platform merchants grew to 80,000, a 122.2% increase [12][13]. Valuation and Forecast - The DCF valuation estimates the company's equity value at CNY 121.73 billion, corresponding to a share price of HKD 41.49, based on a WACC of 8.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [17][18]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 is CNY 64.0 billion, with an expected growth rate of 11.5% [17].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业 证券研究报告 行业信息点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 国铁发布 24 年第二批动车高级修采购公 告，五级修占比 63.90% [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件。根据国铁采购平台，2024 年 8 月 16 日，国铁集团发布 2024 年第二批动 车组高级修采购项目招标公告，本次招标共涉及 472.625 组动车组高级修，其中 三级修 / 四 级 修 / 五 级 修 分 别 为 24/146.625/302 组 ， 占 比 分 别 为 5.08%/31.02%/63.90%。 2024 年以来动车组维保需求呈现高景气，业内招投标量持续走强。从国铁招标 情况来看，2023 年全年国铁集团三级修/四级修/五级修招标量分别为 69/113/108 组，占比分别为 23.79%/38.97%/37.24%。今年以来国铁集团已发布两次动车组高 级修招标项目，包括本次采购项目在内，三级修/四级修/五级修需求分别为 56/268.25/509 组，相比 2023 年全年减少 19%、增加 102%、增加 371%，三级修/ 四级修/五级修占比分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Medical System Holdings (867 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.96 per share, up 0.6% from the previous target of HKD 9.90 [8][10] Core Views - The impact of centralized procurement (VBP) has largely been cleared, and future price reductions for VBP products are expected to be limited [4] - The company is transitioning into a growth phase driven by exclusive and innovative products, with steady progress in its R&D pipeline [5] - The aesthetic medicine, ophthalmology, and Southeast Asia businesses are gradually being established and are expected to contribute incremental growth next year [7] Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2024 was RMB 4.29 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 22.6%, but a sequential increase of 8.9% [3] - Gross margin was 62.7%, down 1.7 percentage points year-over-year, with a sequential decrease of 0.5 percentage points [3] - Net profit was RMB 900 million, down 52.8% year-over-year, but up 92.8% sequentially [3] - R&D expenditure reached RMB 620 million, up 160.2% year-over-year, accounting for 14.5% of revenue [3] Business Segments - Cardio-cerebrovascular segment revenue was RMB 1.52 billion, down 28.8% year-over-year [3] - Gastroenterology/autoimmune segment revenue was RMB 1.35 billion, down 25.0% year-over-year [3] - Ophthalmology segment revenue rose to RMB 300 million, up 23.9% year-over-year [3] - Dermatology and aesthetics segment revenue was RMB 280 million, up 11.9% year-over-year [3] Centralized Procurement Impact - Revenue from three VBP products (Dailixin, Boyiding, and Yousifu) was RMB 1.23 billion, down 49.2% year-over-year, meeting the company's guidance of a 50% sales retention rate [4] - The negative impact of VBP on these products has been largely absorbed, with Yousifu expected to face a further 5% price reduction in H2 2024 [4] Innovation and R&D - Non-VBP exclusive and innovative products accounted for 56.1% of total drug sales revenue, with combined sales of RMB 2.4 billion in H1 2024 [5] - The company has five approved innovative drugs covering six indications, with two new drugs approved in 2024 [5] - Approximately 10 innovative drugs are in clinical development in China, with Desidustat Tablets under CDE review and Ruxolitinib Cream approved for vitiligo in Macau [5] Aesthetic Medicine and Ophthalmology - Tildrakizumab Solution for Injection was approved in China in May 2023 for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, with potential to capture market share from Cosentyx [7] - Ophthalmology products, including Esculin and Digitalisglycosides Eye Drops and the EyeOP1 Glaucoma Treatment Device, achieved sales of RMB 300 million in H1 2024 [7] Southeast Asia Business - Ruxolitinib Cream is expected to launch in Southeast Asia in H2 2025 [7] - A collaboration with Junshi Biosciences was established in March 2024 to commercialize Toripalimab in Southeast Asia, with sales expected to begin in H2 2025 [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2025 were adjusted to RMB 8.26 billion and RMB 9.19 billion, respectively, representing year-over-year increases of 3.1% and 11.2% [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2025 was adjusted to RMB 1.87 billion and RMB 2.07 billion, respectively [8] - The company was assigned a 13x PE ratio for 2024, based on comparable companies such as Huadong Medicine (16x PE), Sino Biopharmaceutical (18x PE), and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (11x PE) [8]