[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 源杰科技(688498.SH) 2024 年 04 月 29 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：电子/半导体 当前价格(元)：149.30 证券分析师 陈蓉芳 资格编号：S0120522060001 邮箱：chenrf＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 源杰科技 沪深300 -80% | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|----------------|--------------|------------| | 2023-05 \n沪深 300 对比 | 2023-09 \n1M | 2024-01 \n2M | 3M | | | | | | | 绝对涨幅 (%) 相对涨幅 | 20.63 18.83 | 12.32 8.43 | 10.39 2.88 | | (%) 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《2023 年三季报点评-源杰科技 （688498.SH）：业绩短期承 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [7][23]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth across its three main business segments, with the energy storage sector showing significant expansion. The report adjusts the profit forecasts for 2024-2025 and introduces a forecast for 2026, expecting revenues of 9.22 billion, 13.59 billion, and 16.94 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 34.2%, 47.4%, and 24.6% [7][21]. - The net profit for the same years is projected to be 1.17 billion, 1.38 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.1%, 18%, and 8.5% [7][21]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is reported at 6.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%, driven by increased sales in energy storage products and power station sales [18][21]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 is 28.43%, a decrease of 7.86 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily due to the lower margin from the energy storage and photovoltaic sectors [18]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.303 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 59.97% [18]. Business Segment Performance - The energy storage segment has shown remarkable growth, with a revenue increase of 253.62% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 16.09% [18]. - The photovoltaic segment reported a revenue of 2.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.27%, but with a gross margin decrease of 18.9 percentage points [18]. - The company has successfully secured multiple energy storage projects, with a total project reserve exceeding 6GWh, which is expected to support the performance of the energy storage segment [7][19]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong market presence, with its products covering over 30 countries and regions globally, and has achieved significant market share in Poland and other Eastern European markets [25]. - The company is actively expanding its energy storage business and has completed the construction of several production lines, increasing its annual production capacity to 6GWh [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to rebound due to several factors, including government funding for infrastructure projects and a decrease in port inventories [3][4]. - The overall coal supply is tightening, with production declines and safety inspections affecting output [3][4]. - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in coal prices for 2024, driven by reduced production and stable demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 7% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 0.8% as of April 26, 2024 [60]. - The prices for different coal types show mixed trends, with thermal coal prices decreasing while coking coal prices are on the rise [7][13]. Price and Event Review - As of April 26, 2024, the price for Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is 824 CNY/ton, down 0.24% from the previous week [5][13]. - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang port has increased to 2170 CNY/ton, up 1.4% [4][18]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a slight tightening in coal supply due to safety inspections leading to production cuts [3][4]. - The railway input to Qinhuangdao port has increased by 5.17%, indicating a rise in coal transportation [37]. Inventory Analysis - As of April 28, 2024, Qinhuangdao's coal inventory decreased by 4.02% to 501,000 tons, while key power plant inventories increased by 3.55% [45][46]. - The report highlights a divergence in inventory levels between southern and northern ports, with southern ports seeing a decrease [44]. International Coal Market - The report indicates a mixed performance in international coal prices, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal at 88.75 USD/ton, showing a slight increase [51]. - The price gap between domestic and international coal has narrowed for thermal coal but widened for coking coal [57]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend capabilities and those positioned for growth in the upcoming cycles, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [6][6]. - It emphasizes the potential for price recovery in coking coal due to improved downstream demand and operational efficiencies [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 416 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.18%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38.23% to 28 million yuan [5][8]. - The company has made progress in new product and industry promotion, with significant revenue growth in the semiconductor sector, which increased by 842.51% in 2023, indicating initial success in expanding into new industries [6][8]. - The overall gross margin for the company was 43.79%, a decrease of 3.92 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and increased depreciation from new production lines [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 116 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, but the net profit dropped by 91.07% to 1 million yuan [5][6]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 105 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.19%, while the net profit decreased by 10.05% to 12 million yuan [5][6]. - The company’s R&D expenses accounted for 12.6% of total expenses in 2023, reflecting a commitment to enhancing R&D capabilities [7][8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 473 million yuan, 539 million yuan, and 623 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 13.7%, 13.9%, and 15.5% [8][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 41 million yuan, 52 million yuan, and 69 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 47.3%, 29.2%, and 31.5% [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yongtai Energy [2] Core Views - Yongtai Energy reported a total revenue of 30.12 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.266 billion yuan, an increase of 18.67% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is experiencing a significant recovery in its power generation business, with a notable increase in net profit in Q4 2023, which reached 642 million yuan, up 74.5% year-on-year [4] - The company is advancing key projects, including coal mining and energy storage, which are expected to enhance future growth [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, Yongtai Energy achieved a coal production of 12.97 million tons and a sales volume of 12.99 million tons, both up by 17.6% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of coal was 872.5 yuan per ton, down 27.7% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 390.42 yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year [4] - The company completed a power generation of 37.349 billion kWh in 2023, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, with a significant reduction in power generation costs [4] - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.7 billion yuan, 3.0 billion yuan, and 3.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.12, 0.13, and 0.14 yuan [5][7] Key Projects and Future Growth - The company is on track with its coal mining project in Shaanxi, which is expected to start production in Q3 2026 [4] - The energy storage production line is set to be completed by Q4 2024, which is anticipated to open a new growth avenue for the company [4]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 光威复材(300699.SZ) 2024年04月29日 光威复材（300699.SZ）：24Q1 收入承 买入（维持） 压，碳梁业务海外新客户开始放量，股权 所属行业：国防军工/航空装备Ⅱ 当前价格(元)：26.26 激励考核目标优化 证券分析师 投资要点 闫广 资格编号：S0120521060002 邮箱：yanguang＠tebon.com.cn  事件: 2024年4月28日公司发布2024年第一季度报告，24Q1公司实现营收约 王逸枫 5.12亿元，同比-8.11%，归母净利润约1.57亿元，同比-8.24%，扣非归母净利润 资格编号：S0120524010004 约1.26亿元，同比-19.58%。 邮箱：wangyf6＠tebon.com.cn 碳纤维价格下调致收入延续下降趋势，碳梁海外新客户发力。24Q1公司收入延续  研究助理 下降趋势，同比下降8.11%，分业务来看： 1）拓展纤维受降价影响明显，大合同执行稳步推进：24Q1 公司拓展纤维板块实 市场表现 现收入约3.16亿元，同比-7.12%，主要受通用高性能碳纤维价格下降和高强高模 ...

Group 1: Economic Insights - The automotive trade-in program is expected to boost consumption by approximately CNY 251 billion to CNY 464.5 billion, accounting for 1.3%-2.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods above the limit in 2024[1] - In Q1 2024, the US GDP growth rate was 1.6%, lower than the Federal Reserve's GDPNow model prediction of 2.7% and analyst expectations of 2.5%[2] - Domestic industrial profits have significantly declined, with a year-on-year growth of only 4.3% in the first three months, indicating weak demand and price pressures[25] Group 2: Market Trends - Foreign capital inflow into the stock market reached a record high on a single day, driven primarily by trading institutions, reflecting optimism about future economic recovery[1] - The first quarter of 2024 saw a notable increase in service consumption, contributing 1.78% to GDP growth, indicating a shift towards stronger service sector performance[59] - The automotive trade-in program includes subsidies of CNY 7,000 for scrapping fuel vehicles and CNY 10,000 for switching to new energy vehicles, funded by a 60:40 ratio between central and local governments[45] Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - March fiscal revenue showed weakness, with VAT declining by 7.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue remained under pressure due to various tax reduction policies[33] - The central bank's recent policies support a maximum loan issuance ratio of 100% for traditional and new energy vehicles, facilitating the trade-in program[45] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate in Q2 2024, following a slow start in local bond issuance due to previous debt issuance affecting project planning[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue for 2023, with a total of 23.46 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 5.6% to 7.64 billion yuan [3] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, and net profit rose by 17.3% to 1.07 billion yuan [3] - The increase in electricity prices has helped stabilize revenue despite a decrease in power generation due to lower water levels [3][4] - The company expects revenue growth of 7.0%, 14.0%, and 5.6% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 9.0%, 16.1%, and 3.8% for the same years [4] Financial Summary - The company’s total assets are valued at 196.68 billion yuan, with a market capitalization of 174.06 billion yuan [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 0.40 yuan, projected to increase to 0.46 yuan in 2024 and 0.54 yuan in 2025 [6] - The gross profit margin for 2023 is reported at 56.4%, with expectations to rise to 57.6% in 2024 [6] - The net profit margin for 2023 stands at 35.1%, projected to increase to 35.8% in 2024 [6] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown an absolute increase of 10.89% over the last three months, outperforming the market [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mango Excellent Media (300413.SZ) [1] Core Views - The advertising revenue has stabilized, and the platform has significant potential for international expansion [1][5] - The company achieved total revenue of 14.628 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.66%, with a net profit of 3.556 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 90.73% [2][5] - The company is expected to maintain growth in its core business, with a rich content pipeline and a recovery in advertising revenue [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The stock has shown a relative decline of 46% compared to the CSI 300 index as of April 2023, with absolute performance of -4.60% in August 2023 [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.21%, while net profit was 472 million yuan, down 13.85% year-on-year due to changes in corporate income tax policy [2][5] - The company expects revenues of 16.222 billion yuan, 17.693 billion yuan, and 19.009 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 2.003 billion yuan, 2.300 billion yuan, and 2.557 billion yuan [5][7] Content and Programming - The company has a robust lineup of content, with over 80 films and series planned for 2024, including popular titles and a focus on short dramas [3][4] - The "Big Mango Plan" aims to produce 200 vertical screen short dramas in 2024, enhancing the company's content offerings [3] Membership and Advertising - Membership revenue reached 4.315 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.23%, with a total of 66.53 million effective members [4] - Advertising revenue was 3.532 billion yuan in 2023, down 11.57% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery with a 15.95% increase in Q4 [4] International Expansion - The Mango TV international app has been downloaded over 140 million times and is set to expand its user base globally, particularly in Southeast Asia [5] - The company has initiated a "User Doubling Plan" to enhance international content distribution and user experience [5] Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2024 primarily due to tax impacts, but operational performance remains strong [5] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 34.6% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 12% [7]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 泸州老窖(000568.SZ) 2024年04月28日 泸州老窖（000568）2023 年报及 2024 买入（维持） 一季报点评：业绩良好兑现，公司经营全 所属行业：食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 当前价格(元)：186.42 方面提升 证券分析师 投资要点 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 收入略超预期，业绩符合预期，Q3末预收款充足。 2023年，公司实现收入/业绩  邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 302.33/132.46亿元，同比+20.34%/+27.79%，收入业绩符合预期，2023年稳健收 沈嘉雯 官。2024Q1，公司实现收入/业绩91.88/45.74亿元，同比+20.74%/+23.20%，一季 资格编号：S0120524040003 度经营业绩平稳落地，为全年业绩稳健增长打下基础。Q1末合同负债25.35亿元， 邮箱：shenjw3＠tebon.com.cn 同比+46.88%，一季度末预收款充足，为二季度业绩稳健增长打下基础，销售收现 研究助理 106.41亿元，同比+32.31%，整体经营质量较高。 中高 ...