[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 |行业周报 传媒 2024年04月28日 传媒互联网行业周报：中宣部制 传媒 定版权产业发展指导；24 年 4 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 月下发 95 款国产游戏版号 马笑 资格编号：S0120522100002 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 邮箱：maxiao＠tebon.com.cn 投资组合：腾讯控股、网易、恺英网络、上海电影、三七互娱、神州泰岳、吉比特、  姚记科技、汤姆猫、快手、芒果超媒、皖新传媒、百度集团、美团、分众传媒等。 研究助理  投资主题：游戏，AI和VR，教育，短剧，影视动漫，广告，数据要素等。 王梅卿  受益标的：港股海外公司阿里巴巴-SW、京东集团-SW、拼多多、爱奇艺、移卡、 邮箱：wangmq＠tebon.com.cn 阅文集团、美图公司、哔哩哔哩-W、猫眼娱乐、泡泡玛特、云音乐、祖龙娱乐、中 手游、心动公司、东方甄选、巨星传奇等；A股主要有慈文传媒、掌阅科技、三人 市场表现 行、万达电影、浙数文化、电广传媒，南方传媒，中文传媒、电魂网络、冰川网络、 中文在线、昆仑万维、万兴科技、游族网络、力盛体育、遥望科技、东方时 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2024年04月28日 有色金属周报：贵金属短期回 有色金属 落，高通胀下不改长期趋势 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002  本周核心关注美国第一季度核心PCE物价指数季调后环比加速。美国第一季度核 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 心 PCE 物价指数季调后环比折年率初值为 3.7%，预估为 3.4%，前值为 2.0%， 张崇欣 一年来首次环比加速。 资格编号：S0120522100003 邮箱：zhangcx＠tebon.com.cn  下周重要数据发布: 4月30日（周二09:30）中国4月官方制造业PMI；5月2日 高嘉麒 （周四02:00）美国联邦基金目标利率；5月3日（周五20:30）美国4月失业率： 资格编号：S0120523070003 季调。 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn  贵金属：黄金小幅回调。本周，COMEX黄金期货收盘价（活跃合约）跌2.6%， 研究助理 COMEX银期货收盘价（活跃合约）跌4.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the utility sector [2] Core Views - The report highlights significant investment in water conservancy projects, with a record completion of 193.3 billion yuan in Q1, marking a 4.4% year-on-year increase [5][54] - The energy sector is seeing a shift towards green energy, with initiatives in Jilin province focusing on hydrogen energy and green electricity as key growth areas [5][55] - The report emphasizes the ongoing transition to low-carbon energy structures during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with rapid growth expected in wind and solar power installations [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes mixed performance across sectors, with the Shenwan (2021) utility index down 1.1% and the environmental index up 1.2% [5][16] - Within the utility sector, gas saw a significant decline of 3.2%, while the environmental sector's monitoring and detection instruments rose by 5.5% [5][17] Industry Dynamics - In Q1, water conservancy investment reached 193.3 billion yuan, the highest for the same period historically, with a total of 23,500 projects implemented [5][54] - The National Energy Administration reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in total installed power generation capacity, with solar power capacity growing by 55% [5][51] - Jilin province is developing green electricity and hydrogen energy industries, aiming to create several large-scale green energy industrial parks [5][55] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, highlighting companies like Guolin Technology and Beijiete as key investment opportunities [7] - It suggests paying attention to companies involved in renewable energy and storage solutions, such as China Nuclear Power and Huadian Heavy Industries [7] Natural Gas Market Update - The report indicates a 5.9% year-on-year increase in natural gas production in early 2024, with significant growth in coalbed methane and LNG production [6][45] - The domestic LNG price index rose by 2.22% week-on-week, reflecting increasing demand [30] Carbon Market Overview - The national carbon market saw a total transaction volume of 2.46 billion yuan, with a weekly trading volume of 1.26 billion yuan [23]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 计算机 2024年04月28日 计算机 海外算力与国产算力共振 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004  AI推动海外云巨头业绩超预期。近期，海外云巨头发布最新季报，充分展示AI投 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 资对业绩的积极作用。谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增 长15%，高于市场预期的790.4亿美元，净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元， 研究助理 高于预期的189.5亿美元。其中，云业务收入同比增长28.4%至95.7亿美元，高 于分析师预期的93.7亿美元。在AI的驱动下，微软当季财报关键指标和各项业务 全面超预期，其中整体微软云收入同比增23%至351亿美元，智能云收入增21% 至267亿美元，Azure收入逐季加速增长。Meta在2024Q1营收与净利润也均取 市场表现 得亮眼成绩，实现营收364.55亿美元，同比增长27%，高于预期；净利润为123.69 计算机 沪深300 亿美元，同比大增117% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2024, with revenue at 6.356 billion and a year-on-year decrease of 40.31%, while net profit dropped by 65.81% to 583 million [6] - The coal price has decreased, with an average selling price of 667.17 yuan/ton, down 21.33% year-on-year, while the overall cost slightly increased by 0.38% to 448.21 yuan/ton [6] - Production and sales have declined, with coal production and sales at 7.5146 million and 9.2947 million tons respectively, down 29.3% and 25.09% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to maintain a minimum coal production of 33 million tons in 2024, supported by new mines coming online [6] - The dividend payout for 2023 is set at 1.289 billion, with a payout ratio of 30.25%, indicating a dividend yield of 4.59% [6] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 38.3 billion, 40 billion, and 40.8 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.5 billion, 4.7 billion, and 4.8 billion [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.25, 2.36, and 2.44 for the same years, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 6.29, 6.00, and 5.80 [7] - The company aims to distribute at least 60% of its distributable profits as dividends during the 2024-2026 period, enhancing its investment appeal [6][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed compared to the market, with absolute declines of -15.49%, -25.36%, and -17.45% over the past 1, 2, and 3 months respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control despite a decline in coal production and sales, with a focus on future growth opportunities [4] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing projects and capacity expansions, which will contribute to revenue growth in the coming years [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.363 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, and a net profit of 1.59 billion, down 24.7% [4] - The coal business saw a production volume of 5.2364 million tons, a decrease of 7.73%, and sales volume of 4.0261 million tons, down 21.08% [4] - The average selling price of coal was 1,178 yuan per ton, down 15.1%, while the cost per ton was 593 yuan, down 16.92% [4] Future Growth Prospects - The company has several projects in progress, including the Inner Mongolia Taoqitu coal mine expected to start production by the end of 2025 with a designed capacity of 8 million tons per year [4] - The company is also advancing its methanol comprehensive utilization project, which is expected to begin production in June 2024 with a capacity of 600,000 tons per year [4] - A new power generation project in Huai Bei City is planned, with an estimated total investment of 5.261 billion, projected to generate an average annual profit of 196 million [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 76.6 billion, 81.5 billion, and 86.9 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 6.4 billion, 6.5 billion, and 7.0 billion [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.39, 2.42, and 2.60 for the same years, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.49, 7.37, and 6.87 [5][6]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Revenue and performance in 2023 met expectations, with a significant increase in prepayments likely driven by the price hike of Qinghua 20 [2] - Strong mid-to-high-end consumption during the Spring Festival, with a notable product structure in Q1 2024 [2] - Synchronous development in both domestic and external markets in 2023, with faster growth in external markets in Q1 2024 [2] - Profitability optimization driven by gross margin improvement or sales expense ratio reduction [3] - Continued deepening of marketing reforms, solid market foundation, and accelerated channel expansion in 2023 [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue and net profit were RMB 31,928 million and RMB 10,438 million, up 21.80% and 28.93% YoY respectively [2] - Q1 2024 revenue and net profit were RMB 15,338 million and RMB 6,262 million, up 20.94% and 29.95% YoY respectively [2] - Gross margin and net margin in 2023 were 75.31% and 32.76%, with a slight decrease in gross margin and an increase in net margin [3] - Q1 2024 gross margin and net margin were 77.46% and 40.86%, up 1.90pcts and 2.75pcts YoY respectively [3] Market and Product Structure - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue in 2023 was RMB 23,203 million, up 22.56% YoY, while other liquor revenue was RMB 8,540 million, up 20.15% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was RMB 11,860 million, up 24.90% YoY, while other liquor revenue was RMB 3,436 million, up 9.88% YoY [2] - Domestic revenue in 2023 was RMB 12,084 million, up 20.41% YoY, while external revenue was RMB 19,659 million, up 22.84% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 domestic revenue was RMB 5,597 million, up 11.44% YoY, while external revenue was RMB 9,700 million, up 27.61% YoY [2] Financial Forecasts - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: RMB 38,902 million, RMB 46,773 million, and RMB 56,142 million [3] - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: RMB 13,284 million, RMB 16,370 million, and RMB 19,994 million [3] - Current PE ratios for 2024-2026: 23.2x, 18.8x, and 15.4x [3] Analyst Background - Xiong Peng, head of DBS Securities' consumer group and chief analyst for the food and beverage industry, with 6 years of industry research experience [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching 62.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.69%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.537 billion yuan, up 122.93% [5] - The company is expanding its market share through regional market development and product structure upgrades, achieving a smartphone shipment of 194 million units in 2023, a 24.2% increase from 2022 [6] - The company is focusing on technological innovation and product upgrades, enhancing user experience through AI and other advanced technologies [7] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with cash dividends exceeding 4.839 billion yuan in 2023, representing a payout ratio of 87.4% [8] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 adjusted to 76.297 billion yuan, 88.516 billion yuan, and 100.311 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 24.5% and a net margin of 9.0%, with significant improvements in profitability metrics [10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 6.88 yuan, with projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 8.14 yuan, 9.79 yuan, and 11.29 yuan respectively [10] - The company’s total assets were reported at 47.945 billion yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 120.057 billion yuan [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a 14.0% share of the global smartphone market, ranking third among smartphone manufacturers, with a focus on emerging markets such as Africa and South Asia [6] - The company is enhancing its product offerings in the mid-to-high-end smartphone segment, which is expected to drive future growth [6] - The company is actively pursuing a diversified strategy, expanding into digital accessories and home appliances while strengthening its digital capabilities [7]

宏观专题 2. 科技创新是中美战略竞争的"主战场" 百年变局加速演进，在中美战略竞争加剧的背景下，美国对华科技遏制措施 不断升级，对华科技政策日趋强硬，科技领域成为中美战略竞争的"主战场"， 科技竞争也已经成为这场战略竞争的核心焦点之一。事实上，自奥巴马第二任期 以来，美国对华科技遏制逐渐发展为中美两国间的核心问题，这一趋势在特朗普 政府与拜登政府时期得到进一步加强： 1）奥巴马政府时期，美国进行了出口管制体系改革，放松了对盟友和其他 友好国家寻求的军事物品的出口管制，同时加强对最敏感的高科技材料的控制， 这一政策旨在"在更少、更关键的项目周围筑起高墙"（where higher walls are placed around fewer, more critical items.），这一策略侧重于保持军事与高科技 优势。但随着美国"重返亚太"，奥巴马政府主导的"亚太再平衡"战略在政治、 经济、科技、军事等诸多方面不断对华施压，2011 年，美国国会通过所谓的 "沃尔夫条款"，限制 NASA 与中国同行接触。2012 年，经过"双反"（反倾销 和反补贴）调查后，美国商务部最终裁定，中国晶体硅光伏电池及组件的生 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 建筑材料 2024年04月28日 建筑材料 周观点：Q1 基金建材持仓降至历史低 位，玻纤粗纱价格继续上涨 中性（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 闫广 资格编号：S0120521060002 周观点：近期基金公布一季报，从基金持股建材数量来看，基金重仓建材板块的 邮箱：yanguang＠tebon.com.cn 绝对数从23Q4的8.71亿股下降到24Q1的8.27亿股，而一季度末基金持仓建材 王逸枫 数量占比环比去年四季度末下降 0.04pct 至 0.69%。从建材持仓市值占比来看， 资格编号：S0120524010004 24Q1环比下降0.06pct至0.21%，持仓降至历史低位。根据卓创资讯统计，本周 邮箱：wangyf6＠tebon.com.cn 缠绕纱价格部分涨100-200元/吨不等，国内2400tex无碱缠绕直接纱主流报价平 均约 3588 元/吨，环比增长 5.13%，合股纱个别产品提涨明显，且货源紧俏度延 研究助理 续；同样，电子纱及电子布报价维稳、新价逐步落实，目前电子纱 G75 主流报价 约7 ...