[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 2024年04月26日 增持（维持） 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）：洞藏延续高 所属行业：食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 增，业绩超预期 当前价格(元)：65.75 证券分析师 投资要点 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 事件：公司发布 2023 年年报，2023 年公司实现营业收入 67.2 亿元，同比增长  邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 22.1%；实现归母净利润22.9亿元，同比增长34.2%；实现扣非归母净利润22.3 研究助理 亿元，同比增长36.0%。根据计算，2023Q4实现营业收入19.2亿元，同比增长 18.8%；实现归母净利润6.3亿元，同比增长26.0%；实现扣非归母净利润6.2亿 尤诗超 元，同比增长32.4%。2024Q1公司实现营业收入23.3亿元，同比增长21.3%； 邮箱：yousc3＠tebon.com.cn 实现归母净利润9.1亿元，同比增长30.4%；实现扣非归母净利润9.0亿元，同比 增长32.7%。 市场表现 迎驾贡酒 沪深300  23 年圆满收官，产品结 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [3][15]. Core Insights - The carbon fiber industry is currently facing a phase of weak demand and increased supply, leading to a challenging pricing environment. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the marginal optimization of supply and demand dynamics [3][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 2.35 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.87 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.54, 28.48, and 25.83 times [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenues of approximately 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 20 million yuan, down 88.44% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was approximately 19 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 88.75% year-on-year [1][3]. - For the full year 2023, the company achieved revenues of approximately 2.049 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of about 231 million yuan, down 63.25% year-on-year. The gross profit margin was approximately 24.71%, a decline of 14.08% year-on-year [17][24]. - The company’s core business, carbon fiber raw silk, generated revenues of approximately 1.559 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.82% year-on-year, with a gross margin of about 26.20%, down 13.82 percentage points year-on-year [6][17]. Market Dynamics - The carbon fiber market has experienced a significant supply-demand imbalance in 2023, with domestic production capacity reaching 120,200 tons, an increase of 34.75% year-on-year. However, global demand for carbon fiber fell by 14.8% to approximately 115,000 tons [6][17]. - The average market price for carbon fiber in China was approximately 118.49 yuan/kg in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.52% [6][17]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [14][24].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 长城汽车(601633.SH) 2024年04月26日 长城汽车（601633.SH）：2024Q1 买入（维持） 所属行业：汽车/乘用车 业绩表现亮眼，电动智能&全球化 当前价格(元)：26.59 进程加速 证券分析师 邓健全 资格编号：S0120523100001 投资要点 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 事件：公司发布 2024 年一季度报告。2024Q1 公司实现营收 428.6 亿元，同比 资格编号：S0120523100002  +47.6%，环比-20.2%；归母净利润32.3亿元，同比+1752.5%，环比+59.3% ； 邮箱：zhaoyy5＠tebon.com.cn 扣非归母净利润20.2亿元，同比扭亏，环比+97.3%。从盈利能力来看，2024Q1 赵启政 公司毛利率为20.0%，同比+4.0pcts，环比+1.6pcts。费用率方面，2024Q1四费 资格编号：S0120523120002 率为11.1%，同环比分别-2.9/-1.9pcts，其中销售、管理、研发费用率同环比均下 邮箱：zhaoqz＠tebo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Texas Instruments, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1][4]. Core Insights - Texas Instruments reported Q1 2024 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue of $3.66 billion, a decrease of 10.3% quarter-over-quarter and 16.4% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since 2020. Net profit was $1.11 billion, down 35% year-over-year, but above market expectations of $983 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.10, slightly above the expected $1.08. The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 57.22% due to declining utilization rates and rising costs from capacity expansion. The company anticipates Q2 revenue to be between $3.65 billion and $3.95 billion, indicating a potential for continued growth [3]. - Demand for consumer electronics is recovering, while the decline in industrial demand is expected to ease. The consumer electronics sector has shown a clear recovery trend since Q4 2023, with AI and other incremental demands likely to boost the need for smartphones and PCs. In Q1 2024, revenue from analog products was $2.835 billion, down 14% year-over-year; embedded products revenue was $652 million, down 22%; and other products revenue was $173 million, down 33%. Some industrial clients have begun to deplete their inventories, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial demand [3]. - China is the largest market for analog chips globally, with a low domestic production rate. In 2022, China's semiconductor market reached $180.3 billion, accounting for 32.5% of the global market. The analog chip market in China was valued at $42.2 billion, representing 47.4% of the global analog chip market. However, the domestic production rate for analog ICs in China is only about 12%. With improvements in domestic manufacturers and favorable national policies, the market for analog chips in China is expected to grow, providing significant opportunities for local manufacturers [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was $3.66 billion, down 10.3% quarter-over-quarter and 16.4% year-over-year [3] - Net profit was $1.11 billion, down 35% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [3] - Non-GAAP EPS was $1.10, slightly above the expected $1.08 [3] - Gross margin for Q1 2024 was 57.22% [3] - Q2 revenue forecast is between $3.65 billion and $3.95 billion [3] Market Demand - Recovery in consumer electronics demand since Q4 2023 [3] - Industrial demand decline expected to ease as clients deplete inventories [3] - Revenue breakdown for Q1 2024: analog products at $2.835 billion, embedded products at $652 million, and other products at $173 million [3] Market Position - China holds the largest share of the global analog chip market [3] - 2022 China's semiconductor market was valued at $180.3 billion [3] - Analog chip market in China was $42.2 billion, with a domestic production rate of only 12% [3] - Growth potential for local manufacturers due to favorable policies and market trends [3]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中国巨石(600176.SH) 2024年04月25日 买入（维持） 中国巨石（600176.SH）：24Q1 价格探底 所属行业：建筑材料/玻璃玻纤 影响业绩，底部建立有望带来龙头弹性 当前价格(元)：11.98 证券分析师 投资要点 闫广 资格编号：S0120521060002 事件：2024年4月25日，公司发布2024年第一季度报告，24Q1公司实现营收  邮箱：yanguang＠tebon.com.cn 约33.82亿元，同比-7.86%，实现归母净利润约3.50亿元，同比-61.97%，实现 王逸枫 扣非归母净利润约1.68亿元，同比-65.95%。 资格编号：S0120524010004 邮箱：wangyf6＠tebon.com.cn 24Q1 价格持续探底拖累收入。24Q1 公司收入同比小幅下降 7.86%至 33.82 亿  研究助理 元，我们判断主要为 24Q1 粗纱及电子纱价格持续下降影响，公司在市场竞争加 剧背景下有望凭借产能、产品、成本等优势进一步扩大市占率，保持销量的稳健增 长。根据卓创资讯，23年全国粗纱价格呈现逐季度下降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 瑞可达 (688800.SH), indicating a potential performance improvement and overseas expansion aiding recovery from a downturn [12][15]. Core Insights - The company has shown signs of a performance turnaround in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year increase in net profit and revenue, breaking a four-quarter streak of negative growth [2][14]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas operations and increasing R&D investment, which is expected to enhance its market competitiveness and drive future growth [23]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1.555 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.32% year-on-year, and a net profit of 137 million yuan, down 45.86% year-on-year [14]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 462 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.66%, and a net profit of 42 million yuan, up 1.66% year-on-year [14]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 24.88%, a decrease of 2.54 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.43%, down 3.02 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The company's revenue from the new energy connector business was approximately 1.367 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 87.89% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of about 1.98% due to reduced order volume [2]. - The communication connector business saw a significant decline, with revenue of approximately 106 million yuan, representing 6.83% of total revenue, and a year-on-year decrease of about 31.57% due to project delays [2]. Future Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 2.278 billion yuan, 2.829 billion yuan, and 3.518 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 201 million yuan, 298 million yuan, and 404 million yuan [15][25].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中材科技(002080.SZ) 2024年04月25日 买入（维持） 中材科技（002080.SZ）：24Q1 玻纤及锂 所属行业：建筑材料/玻璃玻纤 膜价格同比下降，看好玻纤涨价释放弹性 当前价格(元)：16.44 证券分析师 投资要点 闫广 资格编号：S0120521060002 事件:2024 年 4 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年第一季度报告，24Q1 公司实现营收约 邮箱：yanguang＠tebon.com.cn 44.30亿元，同比-12.16%，归母净利润约2.16亿元，同比-47.66%，扣非归母净 王逸枫 利润约1.08亿元，同比-70.76%。 资格编号：S0120524010004 邮箱：wangyf6＠tebon.com.cn 24Q1 玻纤及锂膜价格承压影响业绩表现。24Q1 淡季公司实现收入同比-12.16%至 研究助理 44.30亿元，毛利率约19.43%，同比-5.74pct，主要系玻纤及锂电池隔膜产品价格 同比下降所致。23 年全国粗纱价格呈现逐季度下降且降幅延续至 24Q1，根据卓 创资讯，24Q1全国无碱240 ...

信息披露 谭诗吟，海外市场分析师。具有国内国际双重视野，作为团队核心成员多次获得 Wind 金牌分析师前五，在《新财富》、《中国证券 报》等期刊与媒体上多次发表文章，对美股、港股、新兴市场、黄金等投资理解深刻。 本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告所采用的数据和信 息均来自市场公开信息，本人不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观 点，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，特此声明。 法律声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 海外市场动态跟踪 | | | | | | | 油价波动，应对重于预测 | | | | | 证券分析师 | ——精卫填"海"系列（七） | | | | | | | | | | 油价是美国通胀预期的重要影响因子，美国密歇根大学 5 年通胀预期的走势和 WTI 原油价格强相关，油价作为一个外生变量对美联储货币政策造成干 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 建筑材料 2024年04月25日 建筑材料 建材行业基金持仓点评：24Q1 地产链 预期偏弱，建材板块基金持仓持续探底 中性（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 闫广 资格编号：S0120521060002  从基金持股建材数量来看，基金重仓建材板块的绝对数从23Q4的8.71亿股下降 邮箱：yanguang＠tebon.com.cn 到24Q1的8.27亿股，而一季度末基金持仓建材数量占比环比去年四季度末下降 王逸枫 0.04pct至0.69%。从建材持仓市值占比来看，24Q1环比下降0.06pct至0.21%。 资格编号：S0120524010004 邮箱：wangyf6＠tebon.com.cn  从基金重仓个股来看，资金仍然青睐各细分赛道龙头：1）从24Q1基金持股总数 来看，TOP5分别为东方雨虹（1.52亿股）、海螺水泥（1.35亿股）、科顺股份（0.81 研究助理 亿股）、中国巨石（0.63亿股）和菲利华（0.54亿股）；2）从24Q1基金增持情况 来看，2024Q1建材板块获资金增持TOP5分别为兔 ...

本次电话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而释其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议据此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券国海证券员工或者关联机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准 会议严禁录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 好的各位投资者大家晚上好我是过来交易的朱一波今天给大家讲一下快运行业的投资机会主要我们推荐的是德邦股份跟安能物流首先我讲一下这个行业的一个情况为什么我们推这个行业因为这个行业可以总结有三好格局好增长好业绩好在这三好下我们看快运公司上市的两个公司它的估值都还是在一个偏低的位置 所以我们觉得在这个位置因为这么好的格局加稳定的增长以及一个很好的业绩的支撑当下这个位置其实是非常适 ...