Macro Analysis - The current macro variables affecting the market are internal demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[3] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate pressure on the fundamentals and market risk appetite, but the relationship remains competitive[3] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[3] Policy Insights - The policy focus is on the effectiveness of existing policies and the introduction of incremental reserve tools, with a dynamic calibration approach expected[3] - The emphasis is on promoting the effectiveness of existing policies, particularly concerning employment and systemic risks, while external shocks remain uncertain[3] Investment Strategy - A strategic bullish outlook on Hong Kong stocks is recommended, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive stocks[3] - A "barbell" asset allocation strategy is suggested, focusing on resilient dividend assets in finance, resources, and public utilities, while technology remains a key theme[3] Company Highlights - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH) is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution and trade breakthroughs[9] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 713 million yuan, driven by cost control and increased procurement efforts[14] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with significant growth targets set for 2028[21] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Zhuoyue New Energy, risks involve policy advancement not meeting expectations and significant fluctuations in raw material prices[12]

Macro Analysis - The current market is influenced by three main macro variables: domestic demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[9] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate market risk appetite pressures, but the long-term relationship remains competitive[9] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[9] Investment Recommendations - Strategic focus on Hong Kong stocks is advised, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive markets[10] - A-shares are expected to experience high volatility, emphasizing the need to capture structural opportunities[10] - Suggested asset allocation includes resilient dividend assets in finance, resource sectors, and public utilities, with technology remaining a key focus[10] Company Highlights - Excellence New Energy (688196.SH) is a leader in biodiesel production, with a capacity of approximately 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution[12] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.4% increase, with net profit rising by 12.49% to 713 million yuan[17] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with gold production projected at 85 tons[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Excellence New Energy, risks involve trade barriers and raw material price fluctuations impacting profitability[16] - For Yipuli, risks include raw material price volatility and project execution delays affecting revenue growth[21]

Group 1: Current Market Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest level since 2024[10] - The growth rate of total retail sales from January to May 2025 was 5%, significantly higher than the 3.5% growth in 2024[10] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to impressive growth in specific sectors, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 53% year-on-year in May[12] Group 2: Quality Consumption Era - China has entered a quality consumption era, where consumers prioritize product quality over price, even if it requires more time and effort to find high-quality products[18] - The demand for quality consumption is closely linked to the transparency of product quality information and the reduction of trial-and-error consumption[18] - Successful products like "Nezha" and "Labubu" illustrate the importance of quality supply in creating demand, highlighting that good supply can effectively stimulate consumption[24] Group 3: Strategies for Boosting Consumption - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to stabilize income expectations and improve employment quality, focusing on policies that support the real estate and stock markets[34] - The government should encourage the creation of high-quality supply to drive demand, aligning with the emphasis on "leading new demand with high-quality supply"[33] - Key areas for policy focus include stabilizing the real estate market to counter negative wealth effects, enhancing stock market stability to improve residents' financial income, and ensuring employment quality to stabilize income expectations[34][37][39]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend despite a recent 2.8% decline in domestic spot gold prices. The geopolitical instability and the weakening global position of the US dollar are anticipated to provide lasting support for gold prices [4]. - Industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with copper prices experiencing a 1.3% increase, while aluminum prices fell by 0.5%. The decline in copper exchange inventories has raised concerns about potential short squeezes, which may lead to increased price volatility [4]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have seen an upward trend, while tungsten prices remained stable. The recovery in manufacturing is expected to drive demand for tungsten in cutting and wear-resistant tools [4]. - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have risen. The demand for energy metals is being closely monitored for future growth [4]. - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals, with companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zijin Mining being highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for gold due to geopolitical tensions and the weakening dollar [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - SHFE copper price is at 79,920 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.3%. LME copper price is at 10,051 USD/ton, with a 3.5% weekly increase [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides have increased, while tungsten prices have remained stable [28]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have increased. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand for energy metals [34]. 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, and the non-ferrous metal sector increased by 5.11% during the reporting period [35]. 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights ongoing competition in the copper market, with significant pressure on buyers due to declining inventories [42].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an expected improvement in supply-demand dynamics for photoinitiators, with a potential recovery in market conditions [4] - The report emphasizes the concentration of production in China, which has become the world's leading producer and exporter of photoinitiators, accounting for 13.21% of global exports in 2023 [4] - The report suggests that the price of photoinitiators is likely to rebound due to expanding applications in UV curing technology and a shift towards environmentally friendly solutions [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -17% to 26% from July 2024 to March 2025, compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Supply Side - China is the main production country for photoinitiators, with a concentrated industry structure favoring leading companies [4] - Major domestic producers include Jiurui New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and others, with capacities of 23,000 tons, 17,000 tons, and 13,000 tons respectively [4] - The report notes that the industry is experiencing consolidation, with smaller players facing challenges due to safety and environmental compliance issues [4] Demand Side - The report discusses the expanding application areas for UV curing technology, which is gaining traction due to its advantages over traditional methods [4] - Historical data shows a significant decline in photoinitiator prices, with a 27.8% year-on-year decrease in 2023 and a further 16.3% drop expected in 2024 [4][7] - The report anticipates a price recovery as demand in high-end applications continues to grow [4] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Jiurui New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and Strong Power New Materials as potential investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with a recovery in the market for photoinitiators. China is the main producer of photoinitiators, and the industry is becoming increasingly concentrated among leading companies. The demand for photoinitiators is anticipated to rise due to the expansion of UV curing applications [5][29] - The price of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has been rising, indicating a potential phase of simultaneous volume and price increases. The recent increase in SAF prices is attributed to China's announcement of an export whitelist and quotas, leading to increased inquiries from European buyers [30][31] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the expected improvement in the supply-demand dynamics for photoinitiators, with China being a key player in production and export [5][29] - The report suggests that the price of photoinitiators, which has been at historical lows, is likely to recover due to expanding applications in high-end sectors [5][29] - SAF prices have increased significantly, with European prices reaching 2230 USD/ton, reflecting a 9.85% weekly increase and a 25.14% monthly increase [30][31] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 3.1% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.2% [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 6.4%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [16] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 372 stocks rose, with the top performers including Dadongnan (+50%) and Taihe Technology (+48.1%) [25][27] - The report notes significant declines in stocks such as Ningxin New Materials (-18.6%) and Jinniu Chemical (-14.4%) [25][27] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report emphasizes the recovery potential for photoinitiators and the rising SAF prices as significant developments in the industry [29][30]

Economic Outlook - The US is at the tail end of an economic recovery cycle while entering a new AI technology phase, with capital expenditure in the AI sector stabilizing[3] - Short-term market impacts are expected to be limited, with focus remaining on economic cycles, tariffs, fiscal policies, and geopolitical situations in the second half of 2025[3] Tariff Analysis - As of May, US tariff revenue was $22.17 billion, annualizing to approximately $266 billion, significantly lower than Navarro's estimate of $600 billion[3] - The weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, potentially generating $665.91 billion in annual tariff revenue based on 2024 import levels of $4.1 trillion[3] - Tariff impacts on inflation may begin to manifest in Q3, with historical data suggesting a high pass-through rate to consumers[3] Fiscal Stability - The overall fiscal impact from the "Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to be limited, with a projected increase in the federal deficit of approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, but most of this will not materialize in 2025[3] - The expected interest expenditure in May was $86 billion, indicating significant ongoing fiscal pressures[3] - The upcoming maturity of US debt is not substantial, reducing concerns over debt sustainability in the near term[3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to significant inflationary pressures and complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions[3] - Two scenarios are outlined: one where escalating tensions lead to higher oil prices and potential stagflation, and another where stabilization allows for possible interest rate cuts by the Fed[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on volatility trading strategies using tools like VIX and SIV, and considering domestic companies benefiting from reduced foreign competition due to tariffs[3] - In a stagflation scenario, commodities like gold may perform well, while in a shallow recession scenario, small-cap growth stocks and long-term US Treasuries may be favored[3] Risk Factors - Global economic performance may underperform expectations, leading to pressure on US equities and other risk assets[3] - Inflation could prove stickier than anticipated, complicating the Fed's rate-cutting plans[3] - Escalation of geopolitical conflicts could trigger rapid market volatility and inflationary pressures[3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading integrated energy company in China, with a focus on oil and gas exploration, refining, and chemical production [8][9] - The refining sector is experiencing weak market conditions, leading to short-term profit pressures [15] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns through a structured value management plan and significant cash dividends [62] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a 17% fluctuation expected by mid-2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,074.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 50.3 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [15][4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 735.4 billion yuan, a decline of 6.9% year-on-year, but a significant sequential increase of 3.9% [15] Business Segments - **Exploration and Development**: The company has made progress in increasing reserves and production, with a capital expenditure of 175 billion yuan in 2024, and a focus on high-quality exploration [19][21] - **Refining**: The refining segment is under pressure due to weak demand and narrowing price spreads, with a revenue of 1,481.5 billion yuan in 2024, down 3.2% year-on-year [43][44] - **Chemicals**: The chemical sector is facing a challenging supply-demand balance, with a revenue of 523.9 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year, but a significant drop in profitability [50][52] - **Marketing and Distribution**: The company is transitioning to a comprehensive energy service provider, with a total sales volume of 239.3 million tons in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [55][59] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.286 yuan per share in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 75% when including share buybacks [62][65] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit from 51.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 62.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS growth [4][66]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to May 2025, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 96,623 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% (previous value: -0.4%) [2] - The national general public budget expenditure during the same period was CNY 112,953 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% (previous value: 4.6%) [2] - The revenue and expenditure are under "dual pressure," primarily due to "low prices," with PPI continuing to decline affecting VAT, corporate income tax, and tariff revenues [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic VAT, domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax growth rates were 2.4%, 1.6%, -2.5%, and 8.2%, respectively [3] - In May, VAT and personal income tax showed improvements, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1% and 12.3%, respectively, supported by high-tech manufacturing [4] - Corporate income tax growth was flat at 0.0%, down from 4.0% in the previous period, influenced by low PPI and tariff frictions [5] Expenditure Insights - The expenditure progress for January to May reached 38.5% of the annual budget, with social security, health, and transportation expenditures showing the fastest progress at 45.5%, 41.6%, and 39.1%, respectively [8] - General public budget expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure growth was 6.6%, indicating a positive trend supporting Q2 GDP [9] Government Fund Insights - From January to May 2025, government fund budget expenditure was CNY 32,125 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [10] - Land transfer income-related expenditure decreased by 9.3%, reflecting weakened investment enthusiasm from real estate companies [10] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy has room for incremental space and tools to address potential external risks, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies [10] - The issuance of local government bonds reached approximately CNY 35,354 billion in the first four months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 84% [11]