证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场点评 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 积极信号有望释放 ——美联储 5 月利率决议前瞻 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 背景：美东时间 5 月 7 日（北京时间 5 月 8 日凌晨），美联储将公布 5 月利率决 议。从目前的 CME 联邦基金期货模型来看，市场预期 5 月按兵不动的概率为 95%， 由于美国经济尚具有一定韧性，关税带来的影响目前从就业与通胀角度看尚不显 著，联储预计会保留足够的政策灵活性，以应对未来的较大不确定性。 焦点：联储如何评价经济形势？关注鲍威尔发布会言论。当前美国经济数据显示出 温和转弱的特征，但尚未显示出衰退迹象。联邦政府和从事 ToG 相关业务企业在 4 月的大规模裁员并未明显体现在非农数据上，PMI 数据也维持较强势的状态，但 后续谈判进度存在较大的不确定性，一旦谈判 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand dynamics are trending towards looseness, leading to potential weakness in oil prices. The OPEC+ decision to increase oil supply significantly may exacerbate concerns about oversupply in the market [5][27]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry is entering a new long-term cycle, driven by policy support and improvements in supply-side dynamics. Key investment themes include core assets entering a long-term value zone and sectors with supply constraints showing early signs of elasticity [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policy initiatives are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities in chemicals. The expansion cycle since 2021 may be nearing its end, and the industry is poised for a new round of supply-side reforms [13]. - The report highlights the potential for core chemical assets to recover in valuation and profitability as risks have been sufficiently released [13]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 0.6% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.9 percentage points [5][16]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 1.2%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [5][16]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 286 stocks rose while 134 fell during the week. The top gainers included Jinlitai (+31.1%) and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials (+21%) [25][26]. - The report notes significant declines in stocks such as Xinjing Road (-18.5%) and Youfu Co. (-14.8%) [25][26]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day starting June, which may lead to a weaker oil price environment [27][28]. - The report discusses the implications of oil price fluctuations on chemical companies, emphasizing that a decline in oil prices could lead to cost improvements in the modified plastics sector [29]. - Company announcements include revenue growth for companies like Qiangguang Co. and Yungli Co., while others like Tongde Chemical reported significant declines in revenue [30][31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 36.441 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 40.72%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.961 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year [5] - The coal business showed significant growth, with production and sales increasing by 64.02% and 52.39% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from the ramp-up of the Malang coal mine [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.622 yuan per share, totaling 3.976 billion yuan, with a high payout ratio of 134.3%, resulting in a dividend yield of 10.6% based on the closing price [5] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 39.9 billion yuan, 49.6 billion yuan, and 52.3 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.5 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 4.4 billion yuan [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.59%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.93% [5] - The coal production for 2024 was 43.2524 million tons, with sales reaching 47.234 million tons, marking increases of 64.02% and 52.39% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 367.93 yuan per ton, down 22.55% year-on-year, while the cost was 283.5 yuan per ton, down 8.63% year-on-year [5] Business Segments - The non-coal business faced challenges, with coal chemical production and sales showing mixed results, while natural gas business remained stable [5] - The company’s coal chemical production was 2.2645 million tons, with sales of 2.4694 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.36% in production but a decrease of 8.42% in sales [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing projects and strategic partnerships, particularly in coal and coal chemical integration [5] - The introduction of a strategic partner for the Naomao Lake East coal mine is anticipated to accelerate development efforts [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 36.441 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 40.72%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.961 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year [5] - The coal business showed significant growth, with production and sales increasing by 64.02% and 52.39% year-on-year, respectively, due to the ramp-up of the Malang coal mine [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.622 yuan per share, totaling 3.976 billion yuan, with a high payout ratio of 134.3%, resulting in a dividend yield of 10.6% based on the closing price [5] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 39.9 billion yuan, 49.6 billion yuan, and 52.3 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.5 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 4.4 billion yuan [5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production of 43.2524 million tons and sales of 47.234 million tons, with a significant increase in the fourth quarter [5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 367.93 yuan per ton, down 22.55% year-on-year, while the cost was 283.5 yuan per ton, down 8.63% year-on-year [5] - The company’s natural gas business showed stable development, with production of 6.82 billion cubic meters, an increase of 17.85% year-on-year [5] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.53 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.67 yuan, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.092 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.83%, but a net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.18 billion yuan, a decline of 124.53% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 406 million yuan, up 79.82%, with a net profit of 32 million yuan, a growth of 207.17% year-on-year [4][5] - The revenue growth in 2024 was primarily driven by breakthroughs in the server product layout and customer expansion, despite increased R&D and human resource investments impacting short-term profit performance [4][5] - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the domestic computing power chain and is expected to benefit from high demand for computing power, particularly through its deep partnership with Huawei, which accounts for over 35% of its business [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock performance has shown significant fluctuations, with a comparative analysis against the CSI 300 index indicating varying absolute and relative growth rates over different time frames [3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.092 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.83%. The net profit was -0.18 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline. Projections for 2025 estimate revenues of 2.48 billion yuan, with a net profit of 259 million yuan, indicating a substantial recovery and growth trajectory [5][7] R&D and Product Development - The company has a R&D expense ratio of 10.45% and is actively working on multiple projects that are expected to convert into long-term growth drivers. The focus on high-speed products and the establishment of brand advantages in the server market are key strategies [4][5] Industry Outlook - The defense sector is experiencing a shift towards smart and integrated solutions, with the company being a major supplier for leading defense enterprises. The increasing demand for intelligent defense equipment is expected to enhance the company's performance in the coming years [4][5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the previous leading indicators for bond pricing, particularly the reverse trading of rural commercial banks and the forward configuration of insurance in long-term bonds, may no longer be effective in the current market environment [5][6][14] - Rural commercial banks have shown a significant preference for increasing their holdings in 7-10 year government bonds, while their net buying of certificates of deposit has decreased [6][7] - The insurance sector has shifted its focus from long-term government bonds to local government bonds, indicating a change in investment strategy compared to previous years [14][15] Group 2 - The report discusses two quantitative trading strategies: mean-variance strategy aimed at maximizing expected returns under given risk levels, and threshold buy-sell strategy designed to identify high-value trading opportunities [18][22] - Evidence suggests that the effectiveness of leading indicators is declining, with rural commercial banks showing a reduced probability of bond yield increases following net buying actions in 2025 compared to previous years [18][24] - The report indicates that rural commercial banks have a relative advantage in timing their profit-taking actions, as their net selling after exceeding threshold levels correlates with lower probabilities of subsequent yield increases [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.092 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.83%, but a net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.18 billion yuan, a decline of 124.53% [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 406 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.82%, and a net profit of 32 million yuan, up 207.17% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the domestic computing power chain and is expected to benefit from the high demand for computing power [4][5] - The defense sector's demand for intelligent and integrated products is increasing, and the company continues to invest in R&D, which is likely to enhance performance [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant fluctuations compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 13.34% over 1 month, -23.02% over 2 months, and 47.99% over 3 months [3][4] Financial Data and Forecast - The company forecasts total revenues of 2.48 billion yuan, 3.13 billion yuan, and 3.95 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 259 million yuan, 327 million yuan, and 409 million yuan for the same years [5][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 101.35, 80.24, and 64.10 respectively [5][7] Investment Insights - The company has made significant investments in R&D, with a research expense ratio of 10.45% in 2024, indicating a commitment to innovation [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain high growth potential due to its involvement in the defense and computing power sectors, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 41.973 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.91% year-on-year, while the total profit reached 1.835 billion yuan, an increase of 5.15% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.444 billion yuan, up 2.55% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.82%, with total profit of 608 million yuan, up 40.51% year-on-year, and net profit of 499 million yuan, up 53.09% year-on-year [5][6] - The company experienced an increase in production and prices for its main products, with total production of non-ferrous metals reaching 361,000 tons in 2024, including 84,800 tons of tin, 130,300 tons of copper, and 144,000 tons of zinc. The self-sufficiency rates for tin, copper, and zinc were 30.21%, 15.91%, and 72.72%, respectively [5] - The supply-demand dynamics for tin remain favorable, with a tightening global supply due to policy restrictions in Southeast Asia and stable demand growth driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and semiconductors [5] - The company is a leader in the tin industry, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% in 2024, positioning it well to benefit from ongoing industry prosperity [5] Financial Data Summary - The company’s total assets were reported at 36.803 billion yuan, with a total market capitalization of 22.827 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.88 yuan, with a net profit margin of 3.7% [6][8] - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.269 billion yuan, 2.406 billion yuan, and 2.828 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high revenue in Q2, driven by strong growth in AI and new business segments, indicating long-term potential [5] - The automotive electronics and data center sectors are significant growth drivers, with automotive-related revenue expected to reach 1.1 billion yuan in 2024, a 62.1% increase year-over-year [7] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.17 billion yuan, 8.57 billion yuan, and 10.11 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.05 billion yuan, 1.30 billion yuan, and 1.60 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 806.32 million [6] - Revenue forecast for 2024: 5.897 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [8] - Net profit forecast for 2024: 832 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 29.9% [8] - Gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 36.5% [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 22.31 billion yuan [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.05 yuan [8]

Group 1: Dollar Credit Impact on Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal pressure and concerns over Federal Reserve independence are undermining dollar credit, accelerating gold price increases. As of April 22, 2025, gold prices surged to $3,400-$3,500 per ounce, with key ratios like gold-silver, gold-copper, and gold-oil breaking historical thresholds[6][11] - The total U.S. public debt reached $36.2 trillion by the end of March 2025, with interest payments accounting for over 13% of fiscal expenditures in 2024[6] - The market is witnessing a "triple kill" of dollar assets (stocks, bonds, and currency), leading to a flight to gold as a traditional currency anchor[6] Group 2: Risks from Stablecoin Issuance - The recent GENIUS Act passed by the U.S. Senate on March 13, 2025, is expected to boost stablecoin issuance from $230 billion to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, creating $1.6 trillion in new demand for short-term Treasury bills[3][27] - Stablecoins like USDT and USDC are becoming widely used for cross-border payments, with USDT's market cap at approximately $147 billion and USDC at around $62 billion as of April 27, 2025[14][18] - The issuance of stablecoins may counteract the current sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, potentially leading to a risk of gold price corrections as dollar credit stabilizes[27] Group 3: Signs of Shallow Recession in the U.S. - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakening, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% in March 2025 and a significant decline in consumer confidence as indicated by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index[28][29] - As of April 23, 2025, 27% of S&P 500 companies have downgraded their earnings expectations for 2025, while only 9% have raised them, indicating a bearish outlook[28] - The likelihood of a recession in Q2 2025 is increasing, driven by significant corrections in U.S. asset prices, impacting household wealth[28] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates a high probability of a 100 basis point rate cut in 2025, with the next cut expected in June, as indicated by the CME model[32][34] - The March FOMC dot plot showed a majority of committee members favoring a 50 basis point cut in 2025, suggesting a shift in monetary policy to address economic concerns[32][37] - Trump's recent statements indicate a potential easing of tensions with the Federal Reserve, which may stabilize market expectations regarding dollar credit[32] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include Trump's fluctuating statements, unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, and the U.S. economy maintaining stability, which could all impact the outlook for gold prices and dollar credit[39]