优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《供给端约束预期强化，关注制冷 剂 、 涤 纶 长 丝 、 维 生 素 E 》， 2024.12.22 2.《2025 年制冷剂配额公示，看好行 业景气延续》，2024.12.22 3.《供需侧双重利好，制冷剂景气有 望超预期》，2024.10.20 4.《关注制冷剂、维生素等涨价品种 》，2024.10.19 基础化工 2025 年 01 月 05 日 空调长协订单落地，制冷剂再现 提涨信号 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 建议关注标的：三美股份、巨化股份、东岳集团、昊华科技、永和股份。 风险提示：政策不及预期、需求不及预期、原材料价格波动等。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件：根据 1 月 3 日百川盈孚资讯 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：煤价止跌企稳，持 续看好红利价值》，2024.12.29 2.《煤炭周报：政策加码，重视红 利价值》，2024.12.22 3.《煤炭行业点评：政策支持力度 提 升 ， 红 利 价 值 持 续 显 现 》， 2024.12.19 4.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：上调 回购价格上限，投资价值凸显》， 2024.12.18 5.《淮北矿业(600985.SH)：股东增 持彰显信心，未来成长空间广阔》， 2024.12.17 煤炭周报：煤价触底反弹，坚守 红利逻辑 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2025 年 01 月 05 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 港口库存去化， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 商贸零售 2025 年 01 月 04 日 商贸零售 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 周诗琪 资格编号：S0120524120003 邮箱：zhousq＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 3.《——商社板块 25 全年策略-对消 费乐观一些》，2024.12.10 4.《——商贸社服周专题 1201-卡牌 专题：头部 IP 加速破圈，产品+渠道 放大 IP 价值》，2024.12.1 5.《——商贸社服周专题 1123-"谷 子经济"：市场高景气度，格局分散、 玩家增加》，2024.11.23 元旦消费数据小结 ——商贸社服周专题 0104 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 周专题：节假日成为重要的消费观察窗口，本次周专题主要通过跟踪元旦旅游、零售 消费数据观察消费恢复情况。 请务必阅读正文 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：17.57 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.18 | -1.53 | -10.95 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 14.65 | 1.42 | -4.91 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 57% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 神火股份 沪深300 1.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》，2024.10.23 2.《神火股份（000933.SZ）：煤铝复产 持续推进，盈利有望继续扩张》， 2024.8.20 3.《神火股份（000933.SZ）：业绩符合 预期，维持优质盈利》，2024.3.26 神火股份(0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2][7] Core Views - The report highlights the stable landing of centralized procurement, which removes valuation suppression factors, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the future [6] - The acquisition of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to enhance the company's profits and support its strategic integration in the Sanqi industry chain, aiming to position the company as a leader in the silver-haired health industry [6] - The company's five-year plan aims to double revenue by 2028, with a focus on becoming a leader in the elderly health and chronic disease management sectors [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Kunming Pharmaceutical Group's stock has shown a relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with significant fluctuations noted [3][4] Related Research - The report discusses the successful acquisition of a 51% stake in Huaren Shenghuo, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's financials [5] - The centralized procurement results indicate that key products have been selected without price reductions, ensuring price stability for the company [6] Financial Forecasts - The earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards to 6.1 billion, 7.3 billion, and 8.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting optimism about the company's long-term growth [7] - Key financial metrics such as revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly, with net profit expected to reach 893 million yuan by 2026 [11][13]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 国博电子(688375.SH) 2025 年 01 月 02 日 买入（首次） 所属行业：国防军工/军工电子Ⅱ 当前价格(元)：49.36 市场表现 -51% -34% -17% 0% 17% 34% 国博电子 沪深300 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------|--------------|-------| | -69% 2024-01 \n沪深 300 对比 | 2024-05 \n1M | 2024-09 \n2M | 3M | | | | | | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -6.16 | -4.12 | 3.90 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | -6.63 | -5.27 | 5.96 | 相关研究 国博电子(688375.SH)：高价值 组件核心供应商，有望受益卫星 互联网大规模建设 投资要点 T/R 组件及射频芯片优质供 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Gushengtang (02273 HK) with a 2025 PE of 25x, considering the company's scarcity in the sector and high growth potential [5][29] Core Views - Gushengtang is a leading Chinese medicine healthcare service provider with a mature business model and rapid expansion [5] - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36 1% from 2024 to 2026, driven by increasing patient visits and average spending per customer [4][29] - Gushengtang's membership system has significantly improved customer retention and spending, with members spending approximately 1000 RMB more than non-members [15] Business Overview - Gushengtang operates in two main segments: healthcare solutions (accounting for over 90% of revenue) and healthcare product sales [1][4] - The company has expanded to 71 offline medical institutions across 19 cities as of June 2024, with 70% of locations acquired through M&A [47][49] - Gushengtang has developed 10 proprietary hospital preparations for conditions such as rhinitis, hair loss, and chronic pharyngitis [49] Expansion Strategy - The company plans to add 19 15 15 new stores in 2024 2025 2026 respectively, accelerating its expansion pace compared to 2021-2023 [2] - Gushengtang has established a three-tier talent development system, collaborating with over 100 renowned Chinese medicine experts and training more than 39 000 licensed Chinese medicine practitioners [97] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 726 million RMB in 2018 to 2 323 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 26 18% [59] - Net profit turned positive in 2022, reaching 252 million RMB in 2023, representing a 37 6% YoY increase [59] - The company's customer retention rate increased from 50% in 2018 to 62 8% in 2022, driving patient visits to reach 5 46 million in 2024 [3] Industry Analysis - The Chinese traditional medicine diagnosis and treatment market reached 292 billion RMB in 2019 and is expected to grow to 1 8 trillion RMB by 2030 [75] - Private traditional Chinese medicine hospitals have grown faster than public ones, with a 17 6% CAGR in institutions and 11 5% CAGR in patient visits from 2010 to 2021 [80] - The market share of private TCM service providers is projected to increase from 22 3% in 2019 to 51 4% in 2030 [81] Valuation - Comparable companies in the healthcare services sector have an average 2025 PE of 26x [5] - Gushengtang's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 3 02 4 09 5 39 billion RMB, with net profit of 301 412 557 million RMB respectively [29] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from 1 23 RMB in 2024 to 2 29 RMB in 2026 [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The GLP-1 authorization is gaining traction, with several pipelines worth monitoring. The oral GLP-1 receptor agonists are becoming a focal point for many pharmaceutical companies due to their advantages over injectable forms [3][10]. - The report highlights the ongoing clinical developments in oral GLP-1 drugs, with several companies, including Eli Lilly and Kailera, advancing their candidates to late-stage trials [4][47]. - The overall investment strategy emphasizes four main lines: undervalued blue-chip stocks, companies with positive short-term changes and low price-to-book ratios, fundamentally solid enterprises, and those with high growth expectations for H2 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections 1. GLP-1 Authorization and Pipeline Focus - The report discusses the recent global licensing agreement between Merck and Hansoh Pharmaceutical for HS-10535, an oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist, which includes an upfront payment of $112 million and potential milestone payments up to $1.9 billion [10][16]. - The report notes that only one oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, Semaglutide, has been approved, but its low oral bioavailability (approximately 0.4-1%) presents challenges [4][45]. - The report identifies several companies actively developing oral GLP-1 drugs, including HRS-7535 by Hansoh, which is in Phase III trials, and others like Huadong Medicine and Xinlitai in earlier phases [36][47]. 2. Market Performance Overview - The report provides a market performance review for the pharmaceutical sector, noting a 1.9% decline in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Biotech Index, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.3% during the week of December 23-27, 2024 [11][26]. - Year-to-date, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Biotech Index has decreased by 12.3%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 28.4% [11][26]. - The report highlights the top-performing stocks in the sector, including Dongyangguang, Jingfeng Pharmaceutical, and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, with respective gains of 20.97%, 12.39%, and 10.76% [53]. 3. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report outlines a monthly investment portfolio that includes companies like Kangfang Biotech, Zai Lab, and Humanwell Healthcare, indicating a focus on innovative and growth-oriented firms [37]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the GLP-1 weight loss market, with key players such as Hansoh, Xinlitai, and Gilead Sciences being highlighted for their potential [36][42].

Market Performance - As of December 27, 2024, the Nasdaq index increased by 2.6%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones experienced a pullback[4] - European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 rising by 1.8% and 1.7% respectively, while the UK FTSE 100 declined[4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, indices such as Nikkei 225, Taiwan Weighted Index, and Hang Seng Index performed strongly[4] Inflation and Interest Rates - The U.S. November PCE price index was below expectations, indicating persistent inflation, with a forecasted Fed rate cut of only 50 basis points in 2025[5] - The ongoing political struggle over fiscal spending and the debt ceiling is contributing to high U.S. Treasury yields, currently around 4.6%[5][6] - The market anticipates that the high Treasury yields are largely driven by expectations rather than economic data, with weak economic indicators failing to significantly impact yields[6] Economic Outlook - Concerns regarding fiscal spending and potential impacts from Trump's presidency are creating uncertainty in the U.S. fiscal outlook, which could affect Treasury issuance and yields[7] - The report suggests that the high Treasury yields may stabilize until market concerns regarding Trump's policies ease, with January 20, 2025, potentially marking a turning point[7] Investment Recommendations - The analysis recommends positioning in long-term U.S. Treasuries and small-cap growth indices such as XBI and ARK, anticipating continued high volatility in Treasury yields[7] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalations in geopolitical tensions, which could lead to increased market volatility[8][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for dividend value [7][13]. Core Views - The coal price has stabilized after a decline, supported by winter storage demand due to cold weather and resilient non-electric demand [9][10]. - The report anticipates a U-shaped trend for thermal coal prices in 2025, with limited production growth expected [9]. - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations of a rebound in demand and prices due to ongoing economic support policies [10][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: As of December 27, 2024, the CCTD Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 766 CNY/ton, down 1.42% from the previous week [9][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: There has been a slight decrease in overall supply due to some coal mines halting production as annual targets are met [9]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Qinhuangdao's coal inventory decreased by 19,000 tons (-2.81%) to 657,000 tons [11][83]. - **International Market**: The IPE Rotterdam coal price is down 1.98%, and the Australian peak coking coal price has decreased by 6.82% [11][105]. 2. Market Review - The coal sector underperformed the broader market, with a 0.54% decline compared to a 0.95% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [108]. - The report highlights that thermal coal prices are expected to stabilize, while coking coal prices may rebound in 2025 due to improved macroeconomic expectations [10][13]. 3. Recent Events - The report notes significant developments in the coal industry, including the completion of intelligent coal mines in Shanxi, which now account for over 60% of the province's coal production capacity [112]. - Internationally, coal demand is expected to remain stable, particularly in China, India, and Indonesia, with optimistic signals for the market [112].