Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the solar power equipment industry [2] Core Insights - The solar power sector has shown consistent growth in installed capacity, with a significant increase in both domestic and international demand for solar components despite price declines [4][5][37] - The industry is currently experiencing a bottoming out in price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating a high safety margin for investments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic and International Demand Review and Outlook - In the first seven months of 2024, China's newly installed solar capacity reached 123.53 GW, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, with July alone contributing 21.05 GW, up 12.3% [11][14] - The cumulative installed capacity of solar power in China reached 735.57 GW by July 2024, accounting for 23.7% of the total installed capacity, up from 20.88% at the end of 2023 [15][19] 2. Supply Side: Capacity Growth and Profit Decline - The production capacity across the solar supply chain continues to grow, with polysilicon production at approximately 1.06 million tons (up 60.6%), wafer production at 402 GW (up 58.9%), cell production at 310 GW (up 37.8%), and module production at 271 GW (up 32.2%) [6][57] - Prices across the supply chain have been declining, with significant drops in polysilicon and module prices observed [6][7] 3. Valuation: PB at the Bottom, High Safety Margin - As of September 19, 2024, the Wind solar index has retraced by 64.21%, with a current PB of 1.59, placing it in the bottom range historically [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with relatively high earnings certainty, such as Sunshine Power, Deye Technology, Foster, and Flat Glass [7] - It also highlights inverter manufacturers like Jinlang Technology and GoodWe, as well as leading firms expected to gradually recover profitability, including LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar [7]

Impact on Residents - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates by approximately 0.5 percentage points is expected to reduce monthly payments by nearly 300 CNY for each 1 million CNY loan, potentially increasing consumer spending by around 1 trillion CNY[12][19]. - The negative wealth effect and substitution effect are the two main pathways through which mortgage rate adjustments influence consumer behavior, with the former reducing disposable income and the latter amplifying the impact of debt on consumption[13][14]. Impact on Banks - The reduction in existing mortgage rates may lead to a decrease in net interest margins for listed banks by about 6 basis points, necessitating an overall deposit rate cut of approximately 8 basis points to offset this[12][25]. - The stability of repayments is expected to improve, potentially mitigating the negative impact on banks' asset quality despite the initial price pressure from lower interest rates[12][25]. Market Implications - In the equity market, the focus will shift towards valuation recovery in real estate-related sectors, while the bond market may see a short-term dominance of liquidity-driven movements, with a potential rise in 10-year government bond yields towards the end of the year[12][25]. - The adjustment in mortgage rates is anticipated to enhance market confidence and stabilize consumer sentiment, which is crucial for economic recovery[12][19]. Risks and Considerations - There are inherent risks in the data calculations, including the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations and external liquidity conditions may exceed forecasts[12][25]. - The disparity in consumption recovery between urban and rural residents, along with high leverage among urban households, poses challenges to overall consumer spending growth[20][21].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电子 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |---------------------|--------------------------| | | 2024 年 09 月 24 | | iPhone16 电子 | 首发钢壳电池创新，终端 | | AI 优于大市（维持） | 应用驱动电池持续升级 | 陈蓉芳 资格编号：S0120522060001 邮箱：chenrf＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 电子 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《AI 指引上调，英伟达表明 AI 需 求依然强劲，OpenAI 发布 o1 大模 型》，2024.9.19 2.《华为：新机持续发布，关注产业 链创新环节》，2024.9.18 3.《视源股份：AI 教育赋能，海外自 有品牌加速》，2024.9.12 4.《PCB 板块：24Q2 淡季不淡，24Q3 关注增长确定性强的细分赛道》， 2024.9.11 5.《先进封装助 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 轻工制造 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 轻工制造 | 周观点：家居积极因素正在积累，电动自 | | 优于大市（维持） | 行车新国标开始征求意见 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001 邮箱：bixl3＠tebon.com.cn 宋姝旺 资格编号：S0120524060004 邮箱：songsw＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 李陌凡 邮箱：limf3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 轻工制造 沪深300 -37% 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《周观点：关注出口链向上机 会，家居补贴细则落地，摩托车 8 月出口高增》，2024.9.18 2.《Q2 综述&周观点：板块表现分 化，布局行业龙头，兼顾细分成 长》，20 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2024 年 09 月 22 日 5.《口子窖（603589.SH）：业绩 符合预期，改革稳步推进》， 2024.5.6 | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 食品饮料 | 茅台注销式回购提信心，看好食品饮 | | 优于大市 | 料结构性机会 | | | 食品饮料行业周报 20240916-20240920 | 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -37% -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《食品饮料行业周报 20240909- 20240913-中秋消费氛围较弱，关 注性价比与质价比需求》， 2024.9.17 2.《食品饮料行业周报 20240722- 20240726-板块配置回到低位，建 议关 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------------------------| | | 2024 年 09 月 22 日 | | | | | 煤炭 | 煤炭周报：非电旺季开启，煤价 | | 优于大市（维持） | 延续反弹 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 37% 煤炭开采 沪深300 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭月报：进口增速放缓，需 求边际改善》，2024.9.18 2.《煤炭周报：节前补库释放，煤 价延续上行》，2024.9.17 3.《兖矿能源(600188.SH)：煤化一 体龙头，成长弹性兼具》，2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the utility sector [2] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% in August, driven primarily by a 23.7% increase in residential electricity usage due to extreme high temperatures [5][6][50] - The report emphasizes the ongoing transition towards low-carbon energy structures, with continued rapid growth in wind and solar installations, and the development of energy storage and hydrogen energy [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The utility sector index rose by 0.6% while the environmental sector index fell by 0.1% [5][24] - Within the utility sector, thermal power saw a notable increase of 3.6% [5] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released measures to support the development of the private economy, focusing on green development and enhancing environmental standards [5][52] - In August, total electricity consumption reached 964.9 billion kWh, with significant contributions from the tertiary sector, which grew by 11.2% [6][47] - The report recommends key companies in the environmental sector such as Xuedilong and Anhui Instrument Technology, and in the waste incineration sector, companies like China Tianying and Wangneng Environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing investment opportunities in the energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, particularly in companies like Guolin Technology and Beijiete [6][7] - It also highlights the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in driving high demand for energy efficiency and resource recycling [6] Company Performance - The report lists several companies with strong performance metrics, including Wangneng Environment and Zhongtai Co., with respective EPS forecasts for 2023 and 2024 [8] - It notes that the electricity consumption growth in August was primarily due to increased residential usage, which significantly outpaced other sectors [50][51]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 汽车 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | | | | 8 汽车 | 月欧盟新车销量跌至三年来最低， | | 乐道汽车首款车型乐道 优于大市（维持） | 正式发布 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 邓健全 资格编号：S0120523100001 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 资格编号：S0120523100002 邮箱：zhaoyy5＠tebon.com.cn 赵启政 资格编号：S0120523120002 邮箱：zhaoqz＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《均胜电子（600699.SH）：全球汽 车安全巨头，智能化未来可期》， 2024.9.18 2.《以旧换新政策发力带动行业销 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 公用事业 2024 年 09 月 21 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------------|--------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ESG 公用事业 | HFCs | 履约管控，提 | | | | | | 优于大市（维持） | 升水泥碳排放核算核查水平 | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号：S0120522120001 邮箱：guoxue＠tebon.com.cn 卢璇 资格编号：S0120524050004 邮箱：luxuan＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 刘正 邮箱：liuzheng3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 公用事业 沪深300 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《公用事业板块 2024 年中报总结： 火水核经营稳健 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 计算机 2024 年 09 月 21 日 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | 华为全联接大会，关注鸿蒙原生 | | 计算机 | | | 优于大市（维持） | 与算力底座 | 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《神州数码：AI 有望驱动云和信创 业绩估值双击》，2024.9.18 2.《OpenAI o1 大模型推理的划时代 革命》，2024.9.13 3.《朗新集团（300682.SZ）：互联网 电视收缩致利润下滑，能源数字化+ 互联网业务快速发展》，2024.9.10 4.《金融信创进一步加速》，2024.9.8 5. ...