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南山铝业:氧化铝价格维持高位,海外布局稳步扩张
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 08:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) [1] Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum's performance significantly improved in the first half of 2024, with expected revenue of 15.667 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.189 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 66.68% and 68.61% respectively [1][2] - The price of alumina has risen sharply, with domestic average prices around 3,409 yuan/ton, an increase of approximately 18% year-on-year, and overseas prices averaging 403 USD/ton, up about 14% year-on-year [2] - The company is expanding its overseas operations in Indonesia, with a total capacity of 4 million tons of alumina and 250,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nanshan Aluminum is focusing on high-end products such as automotive and aerospace plates, with high-end product sales accounting for about 14% of total aluminum product sales and contributing approximately 25% to total gross profit [2] - Due to the sustained high prices of alumina, the earnings forecast for Nanshan Aluminum has been revised upward, with projected revenues of 33.107 billion yuan, 35.092 billion yuan, and 37.598 billion yuan for 2024-2026, and net profits of 4.775 billion yuan, 4.877 billion yuan, and 5.256 billion yuan respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Nanshan Aluminum expects a revenue of 15.667 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.189 billion yuan, marking significant year-on-year growth [1] - The company's high-end products are expected to continue driving profitability, with a gross margin of 25% from these products [2] Market Conditions - The alumina market has seen a strong upward trend, with domestic prices reaching 3,409 yuan/ton and overseas prices averaging 403 USD/ton [2] - The demand for high-end aluminum products is increasing, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors [2] Future Outlook - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in Indonesia and focusing on high-value-added products to enhance its market position [2] - The earnings forecast has been adjusted upwards due to favorable market conditions, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance in the coming years [2]
林洋能源:三大业务板块稳健发展,积极开拓海外市场
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 08:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lin Yang Energy (601222 SH) [2] Core Views - Lin Yang Energy's three major business segments are developing steadily with active overseas market expansion [2] - The company achieved revenue of 3 463 billion yuan in H1 2024 a YoY increase of 7 86% and net profit of 599 million yuan a YoY growth of 3 02% [2] - The smart meter segment strengthened domestic layout and expanded overseas markets with total contract value exceeding 800 million yuan in H1 2024 [3] - The new energy power station business accelerated construction with over 200MW newly connected to the grid and over 500MW new projects started in H1 2024 [3] - The energy storage business delivered nearly 3 5GWh of systems with over 6GWh of projects in the pipeline actively expanding in overseas markets [4] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 9 222 billion yuan in 2024 to 16 937 billion yuan in 2026 with a CAGR of 34 2% 47 4% and 24 6% respectively [4] - Net profit is projected to increase from 1 167 billion yuan in 2024 to 1 494 billion yuan in 2026 with growth rates of 13 1% 18% and 8 5% respectively [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline from 27% in 2024 to 24% in 2026 [7] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 7 1% in 2024 to 7 7% in 2026 [7] Business Segments Smart Meter Business - Secured 322 million yuan in State Grid tenders and 322 million yuan in Southern Grid tenders in H1 2024 [3] - Expanded to over 30 countries and regions with cumulative orders exceeding 1 billion yuan in the Middle East [3] New Energy Business - Total contracted operation and maintenance capacity reached 14 65GW as of June 2024 a 50% YoY increase [3] - Expanded business to northwest and southwest China offering comprehensive services including smart O&M platforms and power trading [3] Energy Storage Business - Delivered nearly 3 5GWh of energy storage systems with over 6GWh of projects in the pipeline [4] - Accelerated project layout across multiple provinces in China and secured nearly 1GWh of shared energy storage projects [4]
山金国际:当前符合预期,未来空间可期
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 05:30
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 山金国际(000975.SZ) 2024 年 08 月 21 日 买入(维持) 所属行业:有色金属/贵金属 当前价格(元):17.41 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号:S0120523070003 邮箱:gaojq@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 银泰黄金 沪深300 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 57% 71% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|-------|-------|-------| | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -4.02 | 4.25 | -8.85 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 1.81 | 9.81 | 0.54 | 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《黄金:降息预期提升,金价展望 2600 美元》,2024.8.1 2.《银泰黄金:产量符合规划,黄金成 本下降 ...
雪迪龙:24H1业绩承压,碳计量政策频发看好行业发展潜力
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 05:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 575 million yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49 million yuan, down 39.88% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 343 million yuan, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 56 million yuan, up 3.52% year-on-year [4][5] - The market demand is still recovering, and increased competition has put pressure on profit margins. The revenue from the ecological environment monitoring system, industrial process analysis system, and other businesses was 461 million, 70 million, and 44 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.2%, -30.1%, and +85.32% [4][5] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with a R&D team of 300 people and three major R&D centers in Beijing, the UK, and Belgium, which is expected to support long-term development [4][5] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve sales revenues of 1.625 billion, 1.854 billion, and 2.103 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.6%, 14.1%, and 13.4% [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 225 million, 279 million, and 324 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 11%, 24%, and 16% respectively [5][6] - The overall gross margin is 41.03%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lack of significant demand improvement and increased competition [4][5] Industry Outlook - The frequent issuance of carbon emission policies and the increase in carbon measurement requirements are expected to drive demand for monitoring instruments, indicating a positive long-term growth potential for the industry [5] - In 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to release 70 national standards related to carbon accounting and carbon footprint, aiming for comprehensive coverage of carbon emission accounting standards in key industries [5]
舜宇光学科技:2024年中期报告点评:受益手机业务复苏24H1业绩亮眼,车载&XR驱动长期成长
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 05:23
Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's mobile phone business has significantly recovered, and the automotive and AR/VR businesses are driving further growth momentum [4] - The company's 24H1 revenue reached 18.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 1.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.1% [3] - The company's gross profit margin improved significantly, with a 24H1 gross profit of 3.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%, and a gross profit margin of 17.2%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company's mobile phone lens and module businesses maintain the top global market share, with product premiumization driving profitability improvements [4] - The company's automotive business continues to advance, and its AR business collaborates with industry-leading customers to create benchmarks [4] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week range of 34.450-75.900 HKD [5] - The Hang Seng Index has shown mixed performance over the past 3 months, with an absolute increase of 3.59% and a relative increase of 14.41% [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 38.617 billion yuan in 2024E to 47.667 billion yuan in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2.331 billion yuan in 2024E to 3.320 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 19.3% [5] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve from 17.7% in 2024E to 18.6% in 2026E [5] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 9.57% in 2024E to 11.22% in 2026E [5] Business Segments - Mobile phone-related business: Revenue of 13.029 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 34% [3] - Automotive-related business: Revenue of 2.877 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 16% [3] - AR/VR business: Revenue of 992 million yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 111% [3] - Optical components business: Revenue of 5.48 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 26.9% [3] - Optoelectronic products business: Revenue of 13.191 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [3] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 20x in 2024E to 14x in 2026E [4] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 1.90x in 2024E to 1.56x in 2026E [6] - The company's P/S ratio is expected to decrease from 1.20x in 2024E to 0.97x in 2026E [6] Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to deliver returns between -10% and 10% relative to the benchmark index [8]
《黑神话:悟空》持续出圈,有助于国产游戏精品化、IP影响力全球化
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 02:38
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 传媒 2024 年 08 月 20 日 传媒 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 马笑 资格编号:S0120522100002 邮箱:maxiao@tebon.com.cn 王晶晶 资格编号:S0120524080001 邮箱:wangjj5@tebon.com.cn 传媒 沪深300 -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《吉比特 24H1 中报业绩点评:Q2 环 比 改 善 , 主 力 游 戏 企 稳 》, 2024.8.19 2.《传媒互联网行业周报:全球首款 双人互动剧《谍影成双》上线,关注 中概互联网中期业绩》,2024.8.15 3.《万达电影(002739.SZ)首次覆盖: 儒意加持院线龙头迎来价值重估,AI 赋 能 IP 拓 展 带 来 长 期 增 长 》, 2024.8.14 4.《出版行业点评:出版服务内需为 矛,红利股息为盾》,2024.8.14 《黑神话:悟空》持续出圈,有助于 国产游戏精品化、IP 影响力全球化 [ ...
计算机行业专题:视频大模型奇点时刻加速到来
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 01:31
0 证券研究报告 | 行业专题 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) 2024年8月20日 视频大模型奇点时刻加速到来 证券分析师 姓名:陈涵泊 资格编号:S0120524040004 邮箱:chenhb3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 姓名:王思 邮箱:wangsi@tebon.com.cn 核心逻辑 视频大模型迎来Sora时刻,生产力工具蓄势待发。自Sora发布以来,国内外已有十多家公司发布或更新视频生成模型。 客观对比:与Sora差距缩小,抢占用户或为未来主线。国内外之间的差距正在逐步缩小,视频时长、分辨率等基础功能具有复 制性,未来竞争或向抢占用户、提升粘性等方向迁移,从而需要保障生成质量更高的可用视频,使得视频一致性更高、文本指 令遵循更准确、物理真实模拟能力更强。 主观对比:视频质量提升显著,离物理世界模拟器仍有距离。文生视频领域,视频画面普遍清晰,而在动作幅度与物理还原度 方面差异较大,我国Vidu、清影或已处于视频生成大模型第一梯队,生成时间相对其他模型倍数减少,且在动作幅度、物理还 原度等复杂任务完成性较好;图生视频领域,整体效果优于文生视频,国内与国外差距进一步缩小。 视频大模 ...
传媒:《黑神话:悟空》持续出圈,有助于国产游戏精品化、IP影响力全球化
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 01:31
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 传媒 2024 年 08 月 20 日 传媒 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 马笑 资格编号:S0120522100002 邮箱:maxiao@tebon.com.cn 王晶晶 资格编号:S0120524080001 邮箱:wangjj5@tebon.com.cn 传媒 沪深300 -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《吉比特 24H1 中报业绩点评:Q2 环 比 改 善 , 主 力 游 戏 企 稳 》, 2024.8.19 2.《传媒互联网行业周报:全球首款 双人互动剧《谍影成双》上线,关注 中概互联网中期业绩》,2024.8.15 3.《万达电影(002739.SZ)首次覆盖: 儒意加持院线龙头迎来价值重估,AI 赋 能 IP 拓 展 带 来 长 期 增 长 》, 2024.8.14 4.《出版行业点评:出版服务内需为 矛,红利股息为盾》,2024.8.14 《黑神话:悟空》持续出圈,有助于 国产游戏精品化、IP 影响力全球化 [ ...
公用事业:国常会核准11台核电机组,行业保持高景气
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 01:31
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 公用事业 2024 年 08 月 20 日 公用事业 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号:S0120522120001 邮箱:guoxue@tebon.com.cn 联系人 刘正 邮箱:liuzheng3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 沪深300 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2022-04 2022-08 2022-12 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《穗恒运 A(000531.SZ):煤价上 涨致业绩短期承压,新能源产业发展 多点开花》,2023.4.12 2.《苏试试验(300416.SZ):实验室 产能陆续释放,环试服务占比持续增 加》,2023.4.12 3.《ESG 双周报:央企控股上市公司 ESG 信披指引有望下半年出台,助 力资本市场全面评价央企价值》, 2023.4.10 4.《政策出台助力光热发电,行业规 模化发展有望提速》,2023.4.10 5.《环保与公用事业周报-加快钢铁 领域超低排放改造,光热发电规模化 发展有望提速》,2023.4.9 国常会核准 11 台核 ...
稀土行业点评:2024年第二批指标下达,全年增速收缩明显,弱供给或利好稀土价格
Tebon Securities· 2024-08-21 01:31
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 稀土 2024 年 08 月 20 日 稀土 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谷瑜 邮箱:guyu5@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 沪深300 -18% -15% -11% -7% -4% 0% 4% 7% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 相关研究 1.《稀土行业点评:2024 年第一批指 标增速收缩,中重稀土首次出现负增 长,弱供给利好稀土价格》,2024.2.6 稀土行业点评:2024 年第二批 指标下达,全年增速收缩明显, 弱供给或利好稀土价格 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 事件。工信部、自然资源部下达 2024 年第二批稀土开采、冶炼分离总量控制指标。 年内第二批指标同比增速收缩明显,全年稀土国内供给增速收窄。2024 年第二批 稀土开采、冶炼分离总量控制指标分别为 13.5 万吨、12.7 万吨,和 2024 年第一 批指标一致。目前来看,2024 年全年合计稀土开采、冶炼分离总量控制指标分别 为 27.0 万 ...