Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Southern Airlines (600029) with a target price of 7.20 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, the company turned a profit with a net profit of 756 million CNY, reversing previous losses, driven by a significant increase in inbound tourism and operational recovery [2][23]. - The company achieved a 126.9% increase in passenger revenue in 2023, with a passenger load factor of 78.09%, outperforming industry averages [2][24]. - The airline's fleet size reached 917 aircraft by the end of March 2024, maintaining its position as the largest airline in China by passenger volume [2][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Southern Airlines is the largest airline in China by passenger volume, with a well-developed route network and a fleet of 917 aircraft as of March 2024 [11][12]. - The company aims to strengthen its main business and improve operational quality, focusing on enhancing domestic and international service offerings [23][24]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese civil aviation industry is recovering from the impacts of the pandemic, with total transport turnover in Q1 2024 exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 12.93% [2][17]. - Domestic travel demand has surged, with passenger turnover exceeding 2019 levels by 20.2%, while international recovery remains slower due to geopolitical factors [18][21]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 193.78 billion CNY, 205.06 billion CNY, and 214.07 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to be 6.11 billion CNY, 9.24 billion CNY, and 11.31 billion CNY [3][35]. - The report suggests a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 3 for 2024, leading to a target price of 7.20 CNY based on comparable companies [36].

他山之石系列——交换机专题(二) 国内外交换机发展趋势研究 西南证券研究发展中心 通信研究团队 2024年7月 核心要点 AI浪潮下,交换机在保障高效网络连接和数据传输领域举足轻重。随着AI数据量和模型规模的增加,分布式计算通过多个互连节点加 速训练过程。交换机在此过程中确保消息及时传递至所有节点,尤其在大规模数据中心和竞争性工作负载中,尾延迟尤为重要。此外, 网络的扩展能力和处理大量节点的能力对于大型AI模型的训练和海量数据的处理至关重要,交换机在保障高效网络连接和数据传输方 面发挥关键作用。据IDC数据,2022年,全球交换机市场规模为3080亿元,同比增长17%,预测2022-2027年CAGR约为4.6%;中 国交换机市场规模为591亿元,同比增长9.5%,预计未来5年增速高于全球增速,稳定在7%-9%。 1 中美两国在电信网络基础设施和算力基础设施方面的投资趋势表现出显著差异。尽管在5G建设、产业数字化和基站等领域的投资力 度相当,但在算力基础设施方面,中国仍与美国存在较大差距。这反映了中美两国在不同发展阶段和市场需求上的不同。特别是在交 2 换机芯片领域,海外公司在高端芯片的交换容量和制程工艺上领 ...

乳腺癌:两大百亿单品领衔,细分市场异彩纷呈 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年7月 分析师:杜向阳 执业证号:S1250520030002 电话:021-68416017 邮箱:duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师:王彦迪 执业证号:S1250524040001 电话:021-68416017 邮箱:wydi@swsc.com.cn 乳腺癌:两大百亿单品领衔,细分市场异彩纷呈 乳腺癌全球第一大瘤种行业高度关注,头部药企抓主流大靶点,细分市场机遇丰富。2020年全球乳腺癌新发病例226万例,系当年全球新发病例 最多的瘤种。2021年全球乳腺癌药物市场规模345亿美元。我们认为新一代HER-2 ADC、CDK4/6抑制剂具备百亿大单品潜质。此外创新靶点 ADC及其联合治疗、下一代内分泌疗法、AKT抑制剂等多个细分市场存在丰富机遇。 从临床指南看乳腺癌药物 1 1)HER-2阳性乳腺癌:从曲妥珠单抗到HER-2 ADC。曲妥珠单抗全面覆盖晚期一线至早期新辅助治疗,二十余年临床数据傍身,临床地位稳固 。以德曲妥珠单抗(DS-8201a)为代表的HER-2 ADC已在晚期二线建立优势,未来有望成为百亿级别大单品。HE ...

家电行业2024年中期投资策略 百舸争流千帆竞 出海扬帆奋者先 西南证券研究发展中心 家电研究团队 2024年7月 核 心 观 点 回顾2024H1: 2024年,以旧换新政策的陆续出台有效提振了家电内销需求;海外市场方面,补库需求持续带动外销增长 ,根据产业在线数据,2024年1-5月空调、冰箱、洗衣机内销量分别同比增长11.2%、7%、3.7%,外销量分 别同比增长27.4%、25.3%、23.2%。家电企业开始有意识的从制造优势向品牌运营管理优势延展,OBM业务 发展迅速。从成本端来看,铜、铝、ABS等大宗原材料价格均有所上涨,海运受红海战争影响存在运力紧张及 运费上涨的情况。 在经济环境承压的大背景下,家电企业表现亮眼。 市场风格方面,年初开始在红利风格影响下,配合家电行业扎实的基本面表现,家电行业涨幅亮眼。进入 2024年5月后,市场开始对原材料涨价、库存、外销基数等方面产生担心,家电行业估值有所回落。 展望2024H2: 从全年来看,"以旧换新"政策对全年家电消费形成需求支撑,根据发改委数据,1-5月主要电商平台家 电以旧换新销售额增长超过80%,出口方面虽然增速放缓,但相较于内销而言依然更加乐观 ...

电生理三维手术量增速超预期；房颤手术国产压力导管销量超预期；冷冻消融产品放量 超预期；集采价格下降可控以及量增超预期。 估值和目标价格 创新技术与产品的研发风险、核心技术人才流失风险、经营渠道管理风险、出海不及预 期风险。 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 目 录 | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 图 1: 公司发展历程. 图 2: 公司股权结构. | | | 图 3: 电生理手术基本原理 | | | 图 4: 2015-2024E 中国快速性心率失常患者电生理手术量 | | | 图 5: 2017-2032E 国内电生理器械市场规模… | | | 图 6: 2015-2023 年中国 65 岁以上人口（百万人）及占比… | | | 图 7: 2015-2022 年中国人均居民卫生支出（元）. | | | 图 8: 2015-2024E 中国心房颤动惑病人数 | ...

Lululemon(LULU.O): 独创社群营销,拓展多品类发展 西南证券研究发展中心 社服研究团队 2024年7月 核 心 观 点 基本面:公司稳坐瑜伽健身行业龙头,运动服装行业的黑马。1)业绩亮眼,营收增速快于竞争者。公司在 女性瑜伽细分赛道上深耕,通过锁定中高端年轻消费群体,推动带有社交属性的社群营销方式,让公司在 2017-23年的营收复合增速达24%,远超出Nike的6.8%和Adidas的2.1%,并超越Under Armour成为全 球第4大运动品牌。2)深耕自营模式,线下线上齐发力。受益于客单价和流量的双提升,2023公司线下/ 线上营收同比增长20.8%/17%,占比分别为46%/45%,呈现齐头并进态势。3)在兼顾北美市场同时,快 速布局中国市场。公司在中国市场的一二线城市大力开设线下直营店,在三四线城市主攻线上DTC模式; 从2020-23年,中国市场的营收复合增速高达55.6%,将成为下个主力市场。4)综合来看,2023公司盈 利能力提升、费用率维持稳定。受运输成本下降的影响,毛利率+2.9pp至58.3%;由于用人成本增加及市 场投入加大,SG&A费用率同比+1.3pp至35.3% ...

Lululemon(LULU.O): 独创社群营销,拓展多品类发展 西南证券研究发展中心 社服研究团队 2024年7月 核 心 观 点 基本面:公司稳坐瑜伽健身行业龙头,运动服装行业的黑马。1)业绩亮眼,营收增速快于竞争者。公司在 女性瑜伽细分赛道上深耕,通过锁定中高端年轻消费群体,推动带有社交属性的社群营销方式,让公司在 2017-23年的营收复合增速达24%,远超出Nike的6.8%和Adidas的2.1%,并超越Under Armour成为全 球第4大运动品牌。2)深耕自营模式,线下线上齐发力。受益于客单价和流量的双提升,2023公司线下/ 线上营收同比增长20.8%/17%,占比分别为46%/45%,呈现齐头并进态势。3)在兼顾北美市场同时,快 速布局中国市场。公司在中国市场的一二线城市大力开设线下直营店,在三四线城市主攻线上DTC模式; 从2020-23年,中国市场的营收复合增速高达55.6%,将成为下个主力市场。4)综合来看,2023公司盈 利能力提升、费用率维持稳定。受运输成本下降的影响,毛利率+2.9pp至58.3%;由于用人成本增加及市 场投入加大,SG&A费用率同比+1.3pp至35.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market over the next six months [12][26]. Core Views - The company is expanding its domestic shipping fleet and enhancing its capabilities in clean energy and international business, which is expected to strengthen its market position [1][3]. - The company has added 7 new domestic trade vessels in 2023, increasing its capacity to 48,000 deadweight tons, and now operates a total of 27 vessels with a capacity of 287,800 deadweight tons [2]. - The revenue for 2023 reached 1.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 250 million yuan, up 22.3% [2]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth of 24.62% in 2024, reaching approximately 1.54 billion yuan, and a net profit of 320.83 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.22% [4][23]. - The chemical transportation business is expected to see significant growth, with projected revenues of 926.7 million yuan in 2024, a 25% increase year-on-year [8][22]. - The overall revenue is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 1.81 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.04 billion yuan in 2026, maintaining growth rates of 17.15% and 13.14% respectively [4][24]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness by expanding its chemical transportation services and entering international markets, which is anticipated to yield higher returns [3][17]. - The introduction of new chemical vessels is part of the strategy to tap into international shipping markets, thereby broadening the company's operational scope [3][17]. Market Position - The company holds a 14.22% market share in the coastal inter-provincial chemical shipping sector, indicating a steady increase in its competitive position [2]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to becoming a comprehensive service provider in the chemical supply chain, with ongoing improvements in its LPG transportation capabilities [17].

央国企量化选股优选策略与 7 月组合 ——央国企量化选股月度跟踪 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------| | 录 目 | | | 1 沪深 A股央国企有效因子浏弈 | | | 2 沪深 A股夹国企优选集客 | | | 3"一带一路+国企"优选集蜂 | | | 4"数字经济-1国企" 优选策略 | | | 5"国家安全+国企" 优选策略… | | | 6"娱行+国企"优选集略 | | | 7 风险提示 … | | 夹国企量化选股月度跟踪 目 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 图 1: 股息率(TTM) 的 IC序列及累计曲线. | | | 图 2: 股息率（TTM）的分组净值图 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests to pay attention to the company due to its stable main business and potential growth from its transformation efforts [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company holds the toll rights for the Jiahuajialing River Bridge, generating approximately 200 million CNY in cash flow annually over the past three years, with a cash balance of 1.353 billion CNY as of Q1 2024 [1]. - The company is transitioning towards the integrated circuit and high-tech sectors, with investments in the Jiaxing Linlan Equity Investment Partnership, indirectly holding 5.0978 million shares of Changfei Advanced, aiming to leverage its geographical advantages in Chongqing [1]. - The establishment of the "Big Fund Phase III" with a scale of 344 billion CNY provides a solid foundation for sustainable industrial development and presents opportunities for the company's transformation [1]. - The company’s toll revenue from the Jiahuajialing River Bridge is stable and not significantly affected by macroeconomic adjustments, with toll income of 114 million CNY in 2023 [1]. - The company has a diversified investment portfolio, including a 33% stake in Yufu Expressway and a 4.93% stake in Chongqing Bank, generating steady investment income [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Chongqing Road and Bridge Co., Ltd. is a state-owned enterprise engaged in urban road and bridge operations, infrastructure construction, investment, and real estate development, listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since 1997 [13]. 2. Existing Assets - The company has a clear asset structure with stable cash flows, primarily from the Jiahuajialing River Bridge BOT project, which has a revenue period until September 2034 [71]. - The company achieved an operating income of 1.17 billion CNY in 2023, with toll revenue contributing 1.14 billion CNY [17]. - Investment income has shown steady growth, with the company realizing 162 million CNY in investment income in 2023 [1]. 3. Strategic Transformation - The company is actively seeking opportunities in the integrated circuit and high-tech industries, with plans to invest in relevant companies to establish a second main business [57]. - The company has made investments in the Linlan Equity Investment Partnership and plans to invest in chip design through a partnership with Lanzhi Electronics Technology [90]. - The "33618" industrial development plan proposed by the Chongqing government aims to create multiple industrial clusters, which will benefit the company’s strategic transformation efforts [93]. 4. Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 240 million, 230 million, and 230 million CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.18, 0.18, and 0.17 CNY [1]. - The company’s financial ratios indicate a healthy balance sheet, with a cash ratio of 2.56 and a current ratio of 3.15, ranking favorably among peers [77].