Core Insights - The report highlights a global risk-on sentiment emerging after tariff shocks, with A-shares, non-ferrous metals, and gold regaining confidence, reminiscent of the Q2 2024 market atmosphere [3] - Current macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from Q2 2024, with the global economy in a more fragile state, as evidenced by the global credit pulse peaking in Q2 2024 and a rapid decline in manufacturing sentiment [3][4] - The report suggests that the recent rebound in global risk assets is primarily driven by market fatigue regarding tariffs, particularly after the introduction of "gradual tariffs" in mid-January, which led to a nearly 10% increase in European stocks over the past month [3] Economic Environment - The U.S. economy is maintaining a delicate balance, with mixed signals from employment data and service sector PMI, indicating some underlying weakness [3] - The report draws parallels to the 2014-2015 credit pulse downturn, suggesting that while there may be short-term rebounds in commodities, the overall trend is likely to remain downward [3][4] - The report emphasizes caution regarding energy and industrial metals, while suggesting a more favorable outlook for agricultural products, particularly cotton, due to a projected 14% decrease in U.S. cotton planting area [3][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on agricultural products, particularly cotton, as the U.S. cotton planting intentions indicate a significant reduction, which could drive prices higher during the demand peak in March and April [3][7] - It is advised to remain vigilant regarding the macroeconomic backdrop, as the dollar has not yet broken previous support levels, and U.S. Treasury yields continue to indicate economic pressures [3][6]

202X`[Table_ReportInfo] 5 年 02 月 16 日 证券研究报告•市场周评 北交所双周报（2.5-2.14） 开年来北证 50 指数涨 16.3%，北交所业绩快报接连出炉 数据来源：同花顺 iFind | 基础数据（ [Table_QuotePic] 2.5-2.14） | | | --- | --- | | 成分股个数 | 264 | | 总市值（亿元） | 6501.09 | | 公司平均市值（亿元） | 24.63 | | 板块区间交易金额（亿元） | 2335.61 | | 平均周交易金额（亿元） | 8.85 | | 区间换手率（%） | 69.55 | 相关研究 摘要 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：刘言 执业证号：S1250515070002 电话：023-67791663 邮箱：liuyan@swsc.com.cn 联系人：李艾莼 电话：17396222897 邮箱：liac@swsc.com.cn [板块相对指数表现 Table_QuotePic] -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 24-02 24-03 24-04 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the robotics industry as of February 16, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The robotics index outperformed the market, with the China Securities Robotics Index declining by 0.5%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.8 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 1.7 percentage points [6]. - The launch of humanoid robots H1 and G1 by Yushutech on JD.com is significant, with G1 priced at 99,000 yuan and H1 at 650,000 yuan, indicating a shift towards consumer accessibility [6][14]. - The G1's pricing strategy is expected to accelerate market penetration and challenge the notion that humanoid robots must first establish a presence in the B2B sector [15]. - The report highlights the potential for other manufacturers to replicate Yushutech's efficient commercialization model, suggesting a rapid scaling and commercialization of the humanoid robotics industry by 2025 [15]. - The "catfish effect" is anticipated to drive cost reductions and efficiency improvements among manufacturers, creating new opportunities for domestic component suppliers [15]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robotics index showed a decline of 0.5% during the week of February 10-16, 2025, underperforming major indices [11]. - The report notes significant developments in humanoid robotics, including the shipment of Figure-02 robots and the introduction of Yushutech's products [6][14]. Industry Dynamics - Apple is accelerating its home robotics project, increasing recruitment for related positions, indicating a strategic push towards smarter home devices [16]. - The Chongqing Municipal Economic and Information Commission announced the first batch of "challenge-based" projects in embodied intelligent robotics, highlighting government support for innovation in the sector [18]. Financing Dynamics - Apptronik secured $350 million in Series A funding, with participation from Google, aimed at scaling its Apollo humanoid robots [21]. - Sijuan Harmonic Drive completed a Series A financing round exceeding 300 million yuan, intended for capacity expansion and automation improvements [21].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - DeepSeek significantly reduces application costs, with training costs for DeepSeek-V3 at only 2.788 million H800 GPU hours, and input/output costs per million tokens at $0.55 and $2.19 respectively, representing a 96% reduction compared to ChatGPT O1 model [4][11][22] - The advancements in DeepSeek's algorithms and frameworks enhance inference efficiency and reduce costs, stimulating demand for AI agents across various industries [4][22] - The shift in demand for optical modules from training to inference creates new requirements for multi-scenario adaptability, particularly in distributed training and edge computing [4][42] Summary by Sections 1. Technological Breakthroughs - DeepSeek's innovative algorithms optimize reasoning efficiency and significantly lower application costs, enabling faster training and reduced GPU memory usage [4][11] - The Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) architecture and DeepSeekMoE framework improve inference speed and memory utilization while maintaining model performance [4][13] 2. Causal Loop - The reduction in inference costs directly catalyzes the development of vertical AI agents, enhancing the demand for intelligent solutions across industries [4][22] - The integration of DeepSeek with various vertical models creates a feedback loop that optimizes the base model and reduces the need for extensive industry-specific data [22] 3. Hardware Transformation - The demand for optical modules is shifting towards inference, necessitating low-latency, high-bandwidth interconnections in data centers and edge computing environments [4][42] - The rise of edge computing and the need for distributed training are expected to increase the demand for short-distance optical modules and enhance the efficiency of communication infrastructure [4][42] 4. Vertical Model Applications - Various industries, including retail, automotive, finance, and healthcare, are leveraging DeepSeek's capabilities to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [20][37] - The deployment of edge computing devices in sectors like industrial quality inspection and smart transportation is becoming increasingly prevalent, driven by the need for real-time data processing [37][51] 5. Network Architecture Revolution - The emergence of 5G enhanced base stations supports edge computing by providing high-speed, low-latency connections, essential for real-time data processing [29][30] - The integration of network slicing with edge computing allows for flexible resource allocation, optimizing performance for different applications [30][31]

Group 1: Social Financing Overview - In January 2025, the total social financing stock increased by 8% year-on-year, maintaining the growth rate from the end of 2024[3] - The social financing increment for January was 70,600 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations and up by 5,866 billion RMB compared to the same period last year[3] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 52,200 billion RMB, which is 3,799 billion RMB more than the same month last year, ending a 14-month streak of year-on-year declines[3] Group 2: Financing Structure Improvement - In January 2025, RMB loans accounted for approximately 73.94% of the total social financing increment, up by 44.5 percentage points from December 2024[3] - New direct financing was 11,860 billion RMB, representing only 16.8% of the total, a decrease of 46 percentage points from December 2024[3] - Government bonds supported direct financing, with an increase of 3,986 billion RMB year-on-year, totaling 6,933 billion RMB in January[3] Group 3: Corporate and Household Lending - Corporate loans increased by 47,800 billion RMB in January, with short-term loans rising by 17,400 billion RMB, reflecting demand for year-end payments[4] - Household loans increased by 4,438 billion RMB, but this was a decrease of 5,363 billion RMB year-on-year, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[4] - The issuance of local government bonds in January was 5,576 billion RMB, a decrease of 5,337 billion RMB month-on-month but an increase of 1,731 billion RMB year-on-year[3] Group 4: Monetary Supply and Deposits - In January 2025, RMB deposits increased by 43,200 billion RMB, a decrease of 11,600 billion RMB year-on-year[5] - M2 growth was 7.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and 1.7 percentage points from the same month last year[5] - M1 growth was 0.4%, with a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and a decline of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year[5]

Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government continues to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and stabilize foreign investment[1] - The State Council approved the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" to address structural contradictions in key industries[1] - Shanghai's government has implemented a comprehensive policy package to support economic growth in Q1 2025, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5%[12] Inflation and Consumer Trends - January's CPI in the U.S. increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in March[21] - The New York Fed's survey indicates that U.S. consumers expect inflation to remain at 3% for the next year and three years, with a rise in five-year inflation expectations to 3%[19] - In China, the government is focusing on enhancing consumer income and promoting consumption in key sectors, with a projected increase in consumer spending due to policies like "trade-in for new" initiatives[11] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.79% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices increased by 1.62% and 1.02%, respectively[27] - In contrast, the price index for thermal coal decreased by 0.83%, and rebar prices fell by 0.65% week-on-week[31] - OPEC forecasts global oil demand to increase by 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025, maintaining previous estimates despite potential trade uncertainties[24]

Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government is continuing a moderately loose monetary policy to boost consumption and stabilize foreign investment, with a focus on enhancing residents' income and consumption capacity[1] - The State Council has approved the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment," aiming to address structural contradictions in key industries and promote high-quality economic development[1] - Shanghai has introduced a comprehensive policy package to support economic recovery, targeting a GDP growth of around 5% for 2025[1] Inflation and Consumer Trends - January's CPI in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider the pace of interest rate cuts[2] - U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next year and three years remain at 3%, while five-year expectations have increased from 2.7% to 3%[2] - In China, the first week of February saw a significant increase in real estate sales, with a week-on-week rise of 89.32%[4] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.79% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices rose by 1.62% and 1.02%, respectively[4] - In contrast, the price index for thermal coal decreased by 0.83%, and rebar and cement prices fell by 0.65% and 0.09% respectively[4] Global Economic Outlook - OPEC forecasts a global oil demand increase of 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by growth in air and road transport[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates may be influenced by rising inflation and economic strength, with a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in March[2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the vaccine industry Core Insights - The overall situation for the vaccine industry in FY2024 shows a decline in the number of batches approved for most vaccine types, with some exceptions showing recovery [7] - Key vaccine types such as multi-combination vaccines, pneumonia vaccines, and HPV vaccines have experienced significant changes in their approval batches compared to previous years [3][29][31] Summary by Sections Multi-Combination Vaccines - In FY2024, the number of approved batches for multi-combination vaccines increased, with five-combination and four-combination vaccines showing growth [3][12] - The total approved batches for multi-combination vaccines reached 127, marking an 11% increase [12] Pneumonia Vaccines - The total approved batches for pneumonia vaccines decreased by 27% in FY2024, with 110 batches approved [18] - The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine saw a 23% decline, while the 23-valent pneumonia vaccine experienced a 34% drop [22][26] HPV Vaccines - The total approved batches for HPV vaccines fell by 64% in FY2024, totaling 195 batches [31] - The two-valent HPV vaccine saw a significant decline, with 89 batches approved, including a 78% drop for WanTai Biologics [31][34] Influenza Vaccines - The total approved batches for influenza vaccines decreased by 11% in FY2024, with 303 batches approved [38] - The four-valent influenza vaccine saw a 36% decline, totaling 166 batches approved [44] Rabies Vaccines - The total approved batches for rabies vaccines increased by 9% in FY2024, reaching 777 batches [51] - The growth was driven by the shift from liquid to freeze-dried products, with Chengda Biologics leading the market [54] Varicella Vaccines - The total approved batches for varicella vaccines decreased by 8% in FY2024, totaling 274 batches [60] - BaiKe Biologics held the largest market share with 98 batches approved [60] Hib Vaccines - The total approved batches for Hib vaccines fell by 5% in FY2024, with 37 batches approved [67] - Notably, Minhai Biologics increased its approved batches by 175% [68] EV71 Vaccines - The total approved batches for EV71 vaccines decreased by 17% in FY2024, totaling 73 batches [72] Rotavirus Vaccines - The total approved batches for rotavirus vaccines dropped by 29% in FY2024, with 109 batches approved [76] Meningitis Vaccines - The total approved batches for meningitis vaccines decreased by 13% in FY2024, totaling 414 batches [87] - The AC polysaccharide vaccine saw an increase in approved batches by 11% [92] Hepatitis B Vaccines - The total approved batches for hepatitis B vaccines increased by 35% in FY2024, reaching 332 batches [101] IPV Vaccines - The total approved batches for IPV vaccines decreased by 33% in FY2024, totaling 283 batches [103]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The performance of major overseas technology companies in Q4 2024 showed a significant increase in net profit growth compared to revenue growth, leading to a continuous rise in EPS for 2024 [4][8]. - Capital expenditures for the four major overseas tech companies reached approximately $77.8 billion in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 78% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22%, primarily driven by investments in servers and data centers to meet the growing demand for AI and cloud computing [4][8]. - The demand for AI cloud services remains strong, but there is a notable shortage in computing capacity supply, which is expected to be a critical issue until mid-2025 [4][8]. - The digital advertising sector showed robust performance, with total advertising revenue for the four major companies reaching $140.1 billion in Q4 2024, a year-over-year increase of 15% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the four major overseas tech companies collectively achieved revenues of $402.3 billion, with Meta leading in revenue growth at 21% year-over-year [8]. - Net profits totaled $91.5 billion, with Google reporting the highest net profit at $26.5 billion [8]. - The stock price performance post-earnings announcements varied significantly, with Meta's stock increasing by 1.6%, while Amazon, Microsoft, and Google saw declines of 4.1%, 6.2%, and 7.3% respectively [4][13]. Capital Expenditures - The total capital expenditure for the four companies is projected to reach $245 billion in 2024, a 64% increase year-over-year, and is expected to rise to $332.5 billion in 2025, a 36% increase [4][8]. Cloud Computing - The cloud business growth for the three major cloud providers was below market expectations in Q4 2024, primarily due to limited computing capacity [4][8]. - Companies are accelerating the development of self-researched ASICs to handle internal workloads and replace aging GPU servers [4][8]. Digital Advertising - The advertising revenue for the four major companies in Q4 2024 was $140.1 billion, with Meta achieving a 21% year-over-year growth [4][8]. - AI tools have significantly enhanced monetization efficiency across these companies [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on Chinese innovative drug companies and multinational corporations (MNCs) [3]. Core Insights - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are gaining international attention for their innovative products, with a focus on new mechanisms and targeted therapies such as second-generation immune-oncology (IO) drugs, weight loss medications, and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [3]. - MNCs are concentrating on core therapeutic areas and accelerating pipeline development to counteract the patent cliff of mature products, with companies like Merck and Roche leading the way in oncology and other therapeutic areas [3]. - The report highlights a divergence in disease area strategies among pharmaceutical companies, with oncology remaining the largest focus, while increasing investments are being made in autoimmune diseases, central nervous system disorders, weight loss, and cardiovascular renal metabolism [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies: Innovative Achievements Gaining Global Attention - BeiGene is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, with a significant reduction in losses and a strong sales performance of its core product, Zanubrutinib [11][19]. - Innovent Biologics anticipates six new drug approvals in 2025, aiming for substantial revenue growth [22][25]. - Kelun-Biotech has received approval for sac-TMT in China and is advancing multiple ADCs into clinical stages [31][33]. - Zai Lab is focusing on a differentiated pipeline with both self-developed and in-licensed products, targeting profitability by Q4 2025 [37][40]. - 3SBio is expanding its product portfolio through business development and is expected to see returns from innovative products in the coming years [46][51]. 2. Overseas MNCs: Focusing on Core Areas and Next-Generation Innovations - Merck is enhancing its oncology pipeline while entering new fields such as weight loss and ophthalmology through strategic acquisitions [56][57]. - Roche is accelerating clinical development across a broad pipeline, particularly in oncology and central nervous system disorders [62][64]. - AstraZeneca is set for a significant data harvest in 2025, with a strong focus on oncology and innovative therapies [70][72]. - Novartis is updating its renal disease drug portfolio and has multiple data readouts expected in 2025 [74][78]. - Gilead is expanding its leadership in the HIV field with Lenacapavir, targeting new indications and preventive uses [79][81].