Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. is currently in the 11th long cycle of prosperity since 1818, with short cycles lasting approximately 3-5 years, influenced mainly by long-term U.S. Treasury yields[2] - Historically, new home sales growth typically turns upward around the time of interest rate cuts, with a lag of about 8.6 months during hard landings and 3 months during soft landings[2][6] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - New home sales showed a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in November 2024, while existing home sales rose by 6.1%, marking the largest increase in three years[2][19] - The affordability index for U.S. residents was at 67 in October 2024, indicating that housing costs exceed 30% of median household income, reflecting weak affordability[27] Group 3: Supply Conditions - As of November 2024, total inventory of new and existing homes was approximately 1.823 million units, remaining low compared to historical levels[2][36] - New home inventory stood at 493,000 units, while existing home inventory was at 1.33 million units, with the latter being significantly lower than historical peaks[36] Group 4: Price Trends - The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in September 2024, down from a peak of 6.57% earlier in the year[2] - The median price of existing homes increased by 4.7% year-on-year in November 2024, while new home prices have been declining since October 2022[2][19] Group 5: Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve initiated a new round of rate cuts in September 2024, reducing rates by 100 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50%[2] - A 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates decreases the likelihood of home sales by 18.1%, indicating the significant impact of interest rates on the housing market[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of approximately 1738 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 857 billion yuan, up by about 14.67% [6]. - The company successfully completed its annual targets for 2024 despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment and the liquor industry cycle, focusing on consumer needs and market challenges [6]. - For 2025, the company aims to address the "supply-demand mismatch" issue and plans to slightly increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor compared to 2024 [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2023A: 1505.60 billion yuan - 2024E: 1737.97 billion yuan (growth rate: 15.43%) - 2025E: 1912.10 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.02%) - 2026E: 2093.94 billion yuan (growth rate: 9.51%) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023A: 747.34 billion yuan - 2024E: 857.07 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.68%) - 2025E: 945.93 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.37%) - 2026E: 1044.39 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.41%) [2][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 yuan - 2024E: 68.23 yuan - 2025E: 75.30 yuan - 2026E: 83.14 yuan [2][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to develop new product sizes for Moutai liquor, including 750ml and 400ml bottles aimed at the dining and international markets, while maintaining a focus on its core products [6]. - The company aims for a growth rate of no less than 14% for its series of liquors in 2025, aligning with its average growth over the past five years [6]. - Guizhou Moutai's market strategy includes enhancing its self-operated and social distribution systems to improve overall competitiveness and market reach [6].

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 01 月 05 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报（12.30-1.3） 以旧换新政策延续，汽车智能化加速突破 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -19% -10% -1% 8% 17% 26% 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 汽车 沪深300 | 数据来源：聚源数据 | | --- | [Table_Report] 1. 汽车行业周报（12.23-12.27）：全国新 能源充电桩数同比+50%，利好新能源渗 透率提升 (2024-12-30) 2. 汽车行业 2025 年投资策略：电动智能与 机器人共舞，行业周期加速向上 (2024-12-24) 3. 汽车行业周报（12.16-12.20）：预计 12 月乘用车零售 270 万辆，新能源渗透率 可达 51.9% (2024-12-23) 4. 汽车行业周报（12.9-12.13）：11 月新 能源渗透率达 52.3%，以旧换新带动乘 用车销售量超 520 万辆 (2024-12-16 ...

[2025 Table_IndustryInfo 年 01 月 04 日 ] 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（12.30-1.3） 创新药械政策发布，年度持续看好创新+出海主线 2025 年围绕新质生产力和高质量发展大背景，看好医药创新+出海、主题投 资、红利三大主线。 创新+出海主线——创新药：政策端，2024 年 7 月国常会审议通过《全链条 支持创新药发展实施方案》，创新药作为新质生产力之一，顶层设计方案有望 助推创新药快速发展。2024 年 11 月末，创新药医保谈判成功率达 90%以 上，医保强调支持"真创新"药物的政策导向。2024 年 11 月，国家医保局发 文提到引导商保更多支持包容创新药耗和器械，未来支付端商保发展空间值得 关注。研发端，SKB264、AK112 等于 WCLC/ASCO 会议发布肺癌适应症出 色临床数据，国产创新持续亮相；出海方面，2024 年国产新药授权出海百花 齐放，二代 IO、减肥药、自免 TCE、ADC、新机制、新适应症等热点频出。 恒瑞医药以 NewCo 模式实现 GLP-1 产品组合授权出海，交易总金额超 60 亿 美元。医疗器械：随着第五批国采 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 01 月 05 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（1230-0105） 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_Summary 行情回顾：本周（] 12月 30日-01月 05日）机器人指数跑赢大盘。中证机器人 指数下跌 8.9%，跑输上证指数 3.4个百分点，跑输沪深 300指数 3.8个百分点， 跑输创业板指 0.4 个百分点。 智元开源百万真机数据集，加速人形机器人训练。12月 30日，智元机器人携 手上海人工智能实验室、国家地方共建人形机器人创新中心以及上海库帕思， 重磅发布全球首个基于全域真实场景、全能硬件平台、全程质量把控的百万真 机数据集开源项目 AgiBot World。AgiBot World是全球首个基于全域真实场景、 全能硬件平台、全程质量把控的百万真机数据集。相比 Google 开源的 Open X-Embodiment 数据集，AgiBot World 长程数据规模高出 10倍，场景范围覆 盖面扩大 100 倍，数据质量从实验室级上升到工业级标准。 乐聚年产 200台人形机器 ...

投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶明辉 电话：13909990246 邮箱：ymh@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 数据来源：聚源数据 -24% -14% -4% 6% 16% 26% 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 机械设备 沪深300 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 439 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 32,008.70 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 31,073.83 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 28.9 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.4 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 01 月 03 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（12.30-1.3） 央行持续释放流动性，俄罗斯又断供天然气 摘要 1. 制造业平稳收官，非制造业超预期改善 ——12 月 PMI 数据点评 (2025-01-02) 2. 地方专项债管理优化，美国政府再次避 免停摆 (2024-12-27) 3. 加强央企市值管理，美联储降息但放鹰 (2024-12-21) 4. 地产销售同比转涨，消费增速边际回落 ——11 月经济数据点评 (2024-12-17) 5. 直接融资持续支撑社融，化债及购房推 升 M1——11 月社融数据点评 (2024-12-14) 6. 加强超常规逆周期调节，美国 CPI 符合 预期 (2024-12-13) 7. 城市加快智能化发展，美联储降息或更 谨慎 (2024-12-08) 8. 数字化加快推进，"关税威胁"拉响警 报 (2024-11-29) 9. 推进国资"三个集中"，特朗普提名陆 续出炉 (2024-11-22) 10.国内居民消费改善，美联储降息不必匆 忙 (2024-11-15) 0 197 4 [Tabl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hutchison China MediTech (0013.HK) with a target price of HKD 40.90, while the current price is HKD 23.40 [1]. Core Insights - Hutchison China MediTech has announced the sale of a 45% stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals for USD 608 million (RMB 4.478 billion) to focus on innovative drug development. The proceeds will be used to further develop its internal product pipeline, particularly its next-generation antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) platform [7]. - The NDA for Savolitinib in combination with Osimertinib for treating MET-amplified NSCLC has been accepted and prioritized for review in China, indicating significant progress in addressing resistance issues in EGFR inhibitors [7]. - The commercialization of Fuzuloparib in the U.S. has been successful, with expected sales of USD 130 million in the first half of 2024, and it has been included in healthcare insurance in Spain and Japan, enhancing its commercial prospects [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Hutchison China MediTech are USD 642.07 million in 2024, USD 736.97 million in 2025, and USD 884.99 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of -23.38%, 14.78%, and 20.09% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -USD 17.24 million in 2024, USD 74.51 million in 2025, and USD 134.20 million in 2026, with growth rates of -117.10%, 532.22%, and 80.12% respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -USD 0.02 in 2024, USD 0.09 in 2025, and USD 0.15 in 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 40.81 CNY for the next six months [45]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic power distribution market, benefiting from the ongoing upgrade of smart grid infrastructure driven by distributed renewable energy integration [45][46]. - The overseas business is expanding, with significant orders expected in 2024, particularly in the distribution sector, indicating a shift from the consumption side to the distribution side [19][46]. - The medical segment is experiencing stable growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% in the domestic rehabilitation medical market from 2020 to 2023 [16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in two main segments: smart power distribution and medical services, with a well-established international presence [61]. - It has a strong production and R&D capability globally, with manufacturing bases in Brazil, Indonesia, Poland, Germany, and Mexico, contributing to 17% of its revenue from overseas [61]. Domestic Power Distribution - The company secured a total of 760 million CNY in bids for smart meters in 2024, achieving a market share of 6.2% [15]. - It ranks first in market share for distribution transformers in both State Grid and Southern Grid, benefiting from the smart grid upgrade [15]. Overseas Business - The company has established five overseas production bases, enhancing its ability to meet demand and stabilize market share [19]. - In 2024, the company expects to receive orders worth 1.8 billion CNY from overseas markets, with a notable breakthrough in Europe and Mexico [19]. Medical Segment - The company has expanded its medical services by adding six hospitals in the first half of 2024, bringing the total to 34 hospitals [16]. - The CAGR for medical revenue from 2016 to 2023 is 24.4%, indicating robust growth potential [16]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 14.76 billion CNY, 17.98 billion CNY, and 21.31 billion CNY, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 22.6%, 25.4%, and 24.2% [46]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.2 billion CNY from the power distribution segment and 600 million CNY from the medical segment by 2025 [46].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Central SOE Quantitative Selection Strategy **Construction Idea**: Combine seven dimensions including dividend, valuation, volatility, sentiment, company performance, risk resistance, and ESG to select effective factors for scoring and stock selection among central SOEs [6][7][13] **Construction Process**: - Factors include: - Dividend dimension: Dividend yield (TTM) = Cash dividend per share over the past 12 months divided by stock price [7] - Valuation dimension: PE ratio (TTM) = Market capitalization / Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (TTM) [7] - Company performance: Net profit growth rate = (Current period - Same period last year) / ABS(Same period last year) * 100% [7] - ROE (TTM) = Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (TTM) / Shareholders' equity attributable to parent company [7] - Revenue = Main business revenue + Other business revenue [7] - Risk resistance: - Short-term solvency (Cash flow ratio) = Net cash flow from operating activities / Current liabilities [7] - Long-term solvency (Interest coverage ratio) = EBIT / Interest expense [7] - Volatility dimension: 24-month volatility = Standard deviation of monthly stock returns over the past 24 months [7] - Sentiment dimension: Trading volume over the past month [7] - ESG dimension: Wind ESG comprehensive score [7] - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): PE ratio (TTM): Volatility: Trading volume: Net profit growth rate: Cash flow ratio: Interest coverage ratio = 1:1:1:1:1:0.5:0.5 [13] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 20 selected stocks [13] **Evaluation**: Factors such as dividend yield, PE ratio, volatility, and trading volume show strong correlation with future returns of central SOEs. Financial report-related factors like net profit, cash flow ratio, and interest coverage ratio have lower correlation due to quarterly data [7] - **Model Name**: "Belt and Road + SOE" Strategy **Construction Idea**: Focus on ROE and net profit growth factors due to poor performance of PE ratio factor in Belt and Road SOEs [20] **Construction Process**: - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): ROE: Net profit growth rate: Cash flow ratio: Interest coverage ratio = 1:1:1:0.5:0.5 [20] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 10 selected stocks [20] **Evaluation**: ROE and net profit growth factors perform better in Belt and Road SOEs, while PE ratio factor shows "low valuation trap" [20] - **Model Name**: "Digital Economy + SOE" Strategy **Construction Idea**: Emphasize ROE and net profit growth factors due to their strong performance in digital economy SOEs [24] **Construction Process**: - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): PE ratio (TTM): Trading volume: ROE: Net profit growth rate: Cash flow ratio: Interest coverage ratio = 1:1:1:1:1:0.5:0.5 [24] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 10 selected stocks [24] **Evaluation**: ROE and net profit growth factors perform well, with high dividend yield stocks like China Mobile and China Telecom included [24] - **Model Name**: "National Security + SOE" Strategy **Construction Idea**: Exclude volatility factor due to poor performance and add ESG factor for national security SOEs [30] **Construction Process**: - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): PE ratio (TTM): Trading volume: ROE: ESG = 1:1:1:1:2 [30] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 10 selected stocks [30] **Evaluation**: ESG factor performs well, with high scores for companies like China Mobile and China Shenhua [30] - **Model Name**: "Banking + SOE" Strategy **Construction Idea**: Add revenue factor for banking SOEs [35] **Construction Process**: - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): PE ratio (TTM): Revenue: ROE = 1.5:1.5:1:1 [35] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 5 selected stocks [35] **Evaluation**: Revenue factor added to improve model performance, with high ROE stocks like Hangzhou Bank included [35] Model Backtesting Results - **Central SOE Quantitative Selection Strategy**: - Annualized return: 15.28% - Excess annualized return over CSI SOE Index: 10.84% - 2023 cumulative return: 58.24% - 2024 cumulative return: 31.11% [13][14][15] - **"Belt and Road + SOE" Strategy**: - Annualized return: 18.51% - Excess annualized return over CSI Belt and Road Index: 14.94% - 2023 cumulative return: 39.33% - 2024 cumulative return: 24.89% [20][21] - **"Digital Economy + SOE" Strategy**: - Annualized return: 14.72% - Excess annualized return over CSI TMT Index: 13.91% - 2023 cumulative return: 44.57% - 2024 cumulative return: 15.59% [24][25] - **"National Security + SOE" Strategy**: - Annualized return: 18.13% - Excess annualized return over CSI National Security Index: 9.10% - 2023 cumulative return: 55.37% - 2024 cumulative return: 30.57% [30][31] - **"Banking + SOE" Strategy**: - Annualized return: 11.36% - Excess annualized return over SW First-level Banking Index: 7.24% - 2023 cumulative return: 74.41% - 2024 cumulative return: 54.03% [35][36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Dividend Yield (TTM) **Construction Idea**: Higher dividend yield correlates with higher future returns [7][8] **Construction Process**: Dividend yield (TTM) = Cash dividend per share over the past 12 months divided by stock price [7] **Evaluation**: Strong positive correlation with future returns, good monotonicity in grouping [7][8] - **Factor Name**: PE Ratio (TTM) **Construction Idea**: Lower PE ratio correlates with higher future returns [7] **Construction Process**: PE ratio (TTM) = Market capitalization / Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (TTM) [7] **Evaluation**: Effective in central SOEs but shows "low valuation trap" in Belt and Road SOEs [7][20] - **Factor Name**: ROE (TTM) **Construction Idea**: Higher ROE correlates with higher future returns [7][20][24] **Construction Process**: ROE (TTM) = Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (TTM) / Shareholders' equity attributable to parent company [7] **Evaluation**: Strong performance in multiple strategies, especially in digital economy and Belt and Road SOEs [20][24] - **Factor Name**: ESG Comprehensive Score **Construction Idea**: Higher ESG scores correlate with better performance in national security SOEs [30] **Construction Process**: Wind ESG comprehensive score [7][30] **Evaluation**: Effective in national security SOEs, with high scores for companies like China Mobile [30] Factor Backtesting Results - **Dividend Yield (TTM)**: - IC mean: 0.061 - IC standard deviation: 0.18 - T-statistic: 3.21 - IC win rate: 61.36% - IR: 0.34 - IC > 0.02 proportion: 95.45% [9] - **PE Ratio (TTM)**: - IC mean: -0.069 - IC standard deviation: 0.19 - T-statistic: -3.43 - IC win rate: 65.91% - IR: -0.37 - IC > 0.02 proportion: 93.18% [9] - **ROE (TTM)**: - IC mean: 0.025 - IC standard deviation: 0.11 - T-statistic: 2.07 - IC win rate: 57.30% - IR: 0.22 - IC > 0.02 proportion: 86.52% [9] - **ESG Comprehensive Score**: