核心结论：① A 股中存在 IPO 全生命周期的盈利演变逻辑。基于 IPO 年限的 二次函数拟合证实，企业 ROE 增速往往在上市后经历由降速寻底向弹性回升 的非线性演变，全市场盈利拐点的平均值为上市后的第 9.32 年。②"三步 走"筛选体系能够系统识别具备长期投资价值的行业与个股。通过趋势识别 -中观对标-微观择优，我们从全市场 5000 余只 A 股中提炼出占比约 23%、具 有明确阶段演进规律的样本池，并通过行业 vs 市场、个股 vs 行业，筛选出 优于市场的行业、优于行业的个股。③个股维度是识别真实周期阶段的必要 前提。虽然银行、房地产等成熟行业的生命周期阶段表现出极强的集群效应， 但电力设备、医药生物、汽车等行业的内部个股在两阶段分布均衡，无法从 行业层面概括，须依托个股进行精准判别。 趋势识别是精准判定个股盈利生命周期的基石。在实证研究的第一步，我们 利用二次函数对万得全 A 样本进行回归，剔除异常值后共有 1273 只个股展 现出显著的 U 型特征，占比约 23%。通过对二次项系数的显著性及拐点位置 判定，将样本划分为第一阶段（压力期）241 只潜力股与第二阶段（修复期） 1032 只绩优股 ...

Core Insights - The report recommends key stocks across various industries for January 2026, highlighting potential investment opportunities based on market trends and company performance [2][3]. Industry Summaries Construction - Shenghui Integration (603163.SH) is a Taiwanese cleanroom engineering service provider and a core supplier for Google's TPU supply chain, poised to benefit from TSMC's expansion in the U.S. with potential orders from TSMC Arizona and multiple North American data centers [2]. Social Services - China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) is expected to benefit from a new cycle in domestic duty-free sales, with a boost from the upcoming consumption peak during the New Year and Spring Festival, leading to improved performance expectations [2]. Electronics - Lante Optics (688127.SH) is experiencing significant growth in its optical prism product line and is collaborating with multiple waveguide manufacturers for AR glasses, indicating strong profit elasticity and expansion potential [2]. Utilities and Environmental Protection - China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ) is set to benefit from the normalization of nuclear power approvals and improvements in market pricing mechanisms, with expected production increases in Guangdong province [2]. Nonferrous Metals - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is a leading player in the nonferrous sector, with high profit contributions from gold and copper, and is entering a rapid growth phase in lithium production, making it a highly valued investment opportunity for 2026 [2]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - Youran Dairy (9858.HK), a global leader in dairy farming, is expected to benefit from rising milk prices and beef price increases, leading to significant performance recovery [2]. Internet - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is well-positioned for the AI era, leveraging its ecosystem advantages, with potential growth from e-commerce and AI agent capabilities not yet reflected in current profit forecasts [2]. Pharmaceuticals - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) is supported by strong performance, order growth, and capital expenditure, with favorable regulatory changes expected to enhance the valuation of the CXO sector [2]. Light Industry - Sun Paper (002078.SZ) is entering a new capacity release phase with significant production increases expected, making it a compelling investment with reasonable valuation metrics [2]. Textiles and Apparel - Anta Sports (2020.HK) is anticipated to benefit from the performance of its premium sports brands, with a favorable valuation and upcoming catalysts from Q4 operational disclosures and the Spring Festival consumption peak [2].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 固收+系列报告之九 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-29 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3965.27 | 13537.09 | 4639.37 | 14549.37 | 3920.98 | 1346.31 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.04 | -0.49 | -0.38 | -0.16 | -0.34 | 0.03 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9038.19 | 12355.17 | 4826.13 | 4629.60 | 5379.66 | 584.88 | $$\overline{{{\prod_{i\in\mathbb{R}}}}}\frac{\Delta}{\Delta}\pm\overline{{{\prod_{i\in\mathbb{R}}}}}$$ (1998) (200) 宏观与策略 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 踪 - 私 募 EB 每 周 跟 踪 （2025122 ...

固收+系列报告之九 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report highlights the significance of researching next-generation innovative drugs for resistant hypertension, with multiple new mechanism antihypertensive drugs expected to report data or achieve clinical progress in 2025 [10][11] - Key catalysts include upcoming Phase 3 clinical studies focusing on cardiovascular and renal endpoints, which are anticipated to yield data in the coming years [11] - The report suggests monitoring domestic companies involved in relevant target areas as potential investment opportunities [12] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.46% this week, with A-share food and beverage stocks underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.52 percentage points [13] - The report indicates a differentiation in the performance of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [13] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality companies in the liquor sector, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai, as well as leading beer companies like Yanjing Beer, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [14] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Rongsheng Petrochemical - Rongsheng Petrochemical is identified as a leading private refining company in China, with significant production capacities across various chemical products, including PX and PTA [15] - The report anticipates a recovery in refining profits and an increase in sulfur prices, which will contribute positively to the company's earnings [17] - Profit forecasts for Rongsheng Petrochemical indicate a substantial increase in net profit from 13.8 billion yuan in 2025 to 25.7 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 90.9% and 13.1% respectively [18] Group 4: Optical Communication - LightSpeed Technology - LightSpeed Technology is positioned as a leading player in the optical communication sector, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing infrastructure [19][20] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 35.42% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [19] - The report projects revenue growth from 116.81 billion yuan in 2025 to 169.93 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise significantly [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Outperform the Market" [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with four main investment themes: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery from difficulties [3][10]. - The report highlights a differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The food and beverage sector (A-shares and H-shares) experienced a cumulative decline of 0.46% this week, with A-shares down 0.57%, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.52 percentage points [1]. - The top gainers in the food and beverage sector this week included Anji Food (29.65%), Richen Co. (9.00%), and Ximai Food (8.54%) [1]. Alcoholic Beverages - The demand for liquor remains weak, with premium liquor companies focusing on supply-side optimization. The report recommends companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai for their growth potential [2][10]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is in a left-side layout phase, with positive signals expected from both supply and demand sides [10]. Beer - The beer industry is in a healthy inventory position, awaiting demand recovery. The report suggests actively investing in the beer sector, particularly in leading brands like Yanjing Beer [2][11]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery in demand, with supply gradually clearing. The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies like Yili for their valuation safety margins [2][13]. Snacks - The report emphasizes selecting strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly those benefiting from the growth of konjac snacks, with leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong competitive advantages [2][11]. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Weilong, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with an average decline of 0.27% this week, underperforming the food and beverage sector by 2.21 percentage points [15].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 金融工程专题研究 与机器人共舞——华夏中证机器人 ETF 投资价值分析 机器人：制造业皇冠顶端的明珠 2025 年以来，机器人板块在人工智能行情催化下显著走强，成为市场重要 主线之一。1—3 月期间，人形机器人指数、宇树机器人指数最大涨幅分别 达到 52.20%和 70.19%，年内两者累计涨幅分别为 38.97%和 45.60%，明 显跑赢同期沪深 300 指数。 国家战略持续加码，为机器人产业中长期发展提供强劲动能。从"十四五"机 器人产业发展规划到人形机器人专项指导意见，再到 2025 年政府工作报告 与"十五五"规划建议，政策体系不断完善。 产业链量产提速，机器人行业收入端保持较快增长态势。工业机器人与服务 机器人产量持续刷新历史纪录，中证机器人指数成分股中约 2/3 企业实现营 收同比增长，28 只成分股单季度营收同比增速超过 20%。 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）投资价值分析 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）以机器人产业链核心上市公司为样本，集 中反映机器人主题整体表现。指数发布于 2015 年 2 月，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 金融工程专题研究 与机器人共舞——华夏中证机器人 ETF 投资价值分析 机器人：制造业皇冠顶端的明珠 2025 年以来，机器人板块在人工智能行情催化下显著走强，成为市场重要 主线之一。1—3 月期间，人形机器人指数、宇树机器人指数最大涨幅分别 达到 52.20%和 70.19%，年内两者累计涨幅分别为 38.97%和 45.60%，明 显跑赢同期沪深 300 指数。 国家战略持续加码，为机器人产业中长期发展提供强劲动能。从"十四五"机 器人产业发展规划到人形机器人专项指导意见，再到 2025 年政府工作报告 与"十五五"规划建议，政策体系不断完善。 产业链量产提速，机器人行业收入端保持较快增长态势。工业机器人与服务 机器人产量持续刷新历史纪录，中证机器人指数成分股中约 2/3 企业实现营 收同比增长，28 只成分股单季度营收同比增速超过 20%。 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）投资价值分析 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）以机器人产业链核心上市公司为样本，集 中反映机器人主题整体表现。指数发布于 2015 年 2 月，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The company, Guangxun Technology, is a leading domestic optical communication enterprise with a vertical integration capability from chip to subsystem, benefiting from the growth of AI computing power in China [1][14] - The demand for high-speed optical modules is surging due to the increasing investment in AI infrastructure by global cloud service providers (CSPs) [2] - The company has a strong market position in the domestic market and is actively expanding into overseas markets, with a significant increase in net profit and revenue expected in the coming years [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guangxun Technology has over 50 years of experience in the optical communication field, achieving vertical integration of optical devices through both organic growth and acquisitions [14][15] - The company has a diverse product line that includes optical transceivers, active optical cables, optical amplifiers, and subsystems, widely used in backbone networks, metropolitan networks, access networks, and data centers [19][24] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 347 million yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.00%, marking a historical high [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 116.81 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 10.60 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3][4] Market Trends - The global AI computing power market is experiencing high demand, with CSPs expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, which will drive the demand for optical modules [2][49] - The "East Data West Computing" initiative and the development of intelligent computing centers are expected to further boost the demand for transmission networks [2] Technology and Innovation - The company has developed its own optical chips and is expanding production capacity, with plans to raise 3.5 billion yuan for the development of high-speed optical transmission products [3][26] - Guangxun Technology is actively investing in new technologies such as CPO/OCS to lead the upgrade of optical interconnection technology [3][24] Competitive Position - The company ranks fourth globally in the optical device industry and has a leading market share in transmission networks, access networks, and data communication [1][2] - Guangxun Technology's products are increasingly being adopted in both domestic and international markets, with overseas revenue accounting for approximately 25% as of mid-2025 [26][29]