证券研究报告 | 2026年01月07日 2026年01月08日 低空经济行业专题四 优于大市 通用航空市场稳步发展，低空运营未来可期 通用航空以航空器制造和飞行活动为核心，除了军用以及民用客货运航班以 外，其他所有的飞行活动都可以归入通用航空的范畴。通用航空具有灵活性、 个性化的服务特点，作业范围广、作业空域低、作业时效性强，涉及多样化 民用领域。传统通用航空器以固定翼飞机和直升机为主，技术和应用都比较 成熟。新兴通用航空器则以无人机和 eVTOL 为代表，具有智能化、无人化和 绿色化等特点。 通用航空在我国迎来新发展机遇主要源于政策、技术和市场化三个因素推 动。政策方面，低空经济上升成为国家战略推动空域管理制度变革以及带动 通航基础设施和运营体系建设完善，为产业发展创造了有利条件。技术方面， 我国企业通过收购深度参与通航整机研发制造，并且在无人机市场和 eVTOL 适航取证方面也实现全球领先。产业化方面，我国将实施大规模应用场景扩 容行动，未来低空运营的经济性有望大幅提升，行业的专业化运营在短期内 会聚焦在高价值、专业化和经济性三重考虑的应用领域。 全球通用航空市场整体保持增长，年交付量连续两年超过 40 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月07日 2026年01月08日 中国平安（601318.SH） 内外资金共振，核心资产回归——"重估平安"系列之一 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 非银金融·保险Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | | 证券分析师： | 王京灵 | 0755-22941150 | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525070007 | 事项： 2025 年 12 月以来，A 股保险板块实现最高月 20%的涨幅，其中以中国平安为代表的低估值保险个股创下近 四年新高。 国信非银观点：近期以平安为代表的低估值保险板块走强，本质上是政策驱动、宏观变化、基本面、市场 资金等多重因素共振的结果。其一，从外部资金面来看，人民币汇率的升值趋势吸引了外资重新增配中国 核心资产，平安作为流动性好且估值偏低的金融龙头成为核心选择之一 ...

Group 1: Banking Industry Outlook - The banking industry is expected to see M2 growth target around 7.5%, with credit growth at approximately 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0% for 2026, aligning with economic growth expectations [6][7] - The total M2 increment for 2026 is estimated to be around 25.4 trillion yuan, with fiscal net injection contributing approximately 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit contributing about 16.8 trillion yuan [6] - The six major banks are projected to have a total of 57 trillion yuan in maturing time deposits in 2026, with a significant portion expected to flow from large banks to smaller banks [8] Group 2: Credit Allocation and Trends - Corporate lending is expected to contribute approximately 80%-85% of new loans, while retail lending is anticipated to show marginal improvement, contributing about 10%-15% [7] - The phenomenon of deposit migration from large banks to smaller banks is a key factor affecting the asset-liability gap in 2026, with large banks continuing to play a dominant role in credit and government bond allocations [7][8] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality stocks such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also considering stable high-dividend stocks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for investment opportunities in 2026 [8] Group 4: Wealth Management and Financial Products - The wealth management industry is experiencing a slight contraction but has reached a historical high with a total scale of around 31.6 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [9][10] - The transition to net value-based products in the banking sector is pushing wealth management companies to innovate, focusing on stabilizing net values and exploring new product designs such as dividend-type products [10][11] Group 5: Social Services Industry Insights - The domestic travel market showed a positive trend during the New Year holiday, with an estimated 142 million domestic trips taken, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to 2024 [15][16] - Investment recommendations for 2026 emphasize the potential for service consumption growth, particularly in high-end recovery and the new cycle of duty-free shopping, as well as the restaurant sector [15][16] Group 6: AI and 3D Printing Industry Developments - The global consumer-grade 3D printing market is projected to grow from 4.1 billion USD in 2024 to 16.9 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 33% [17][18] - Domestic companies are leading the consumer-grade 3D printing market, with significant market shares held by firms like Tuo Zhu Technology and Chuangxiang Sanwei [17][18] Group 7: AI Application and Market Growth - The AI market in China is expected to grow from 93.7 billion yuan in 2022 to 160.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 31% [23] - The leading AI company, Zhiyuan, has seen rapid revenue growth, with a 35.03% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, despite facing short-term profit pressures [20][21]

- The report introduces the dividend point estimation method for stock indices, emphasizing its importance in accurately calculating the premium or discount levels of stock index futures contracts, which track price indices rather than total return indices[43][12][44] - The dividend point estimation process involves key metrics such as component stock weights, dividend amounts, total market capitalization, and index closing prices. While some data like market capitalization and closing prices are directly accessible, component stock weights and dividend amounts require further estimation[48][43][44] - Component stock weights are refined from monthly data provided by mainstream data providers to daily weights using a formula that adjusts for non-reinvested price changes. The formula is: $$W_{n,t}={\frac{w_{i0}\times(1+r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N}w_{i0}\times(1+r_{n})}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) represents the weight of stock \(n\) at the last disclosed date, and \(r_{n}\) is the non-reinvested price change of stock \(n\) during the period[49][50] - Dividend amounts are estimated using the formula: Dividend Amount = Net Profit × Dividend Payout Ratio Net profit is dynamically predicted based on historical profit distributions, categorizing companies into stable and unstable profit distribution groups. Stable companies follow historical patterns, while unstable ones use prior-year data as a reference[51][53][56] - Dividend payout ratios are predicted using historical averages. If a company paid dividends last year, the previous year's ratio is used; otherwise, a three-year average is applied. Companies with no dividend history are assumed not to pay dividends[54][57][55] - Ex-dividend dates are forecasted using historical intervals and linear extrapolation methods. If historical dates are deemed unreasonable, default dates are applied based on typical dividend announcement timelines[55][60][58] - The accuracy of the dividend point estimation model is validated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual points for major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The model demonstrates high accuracy, with errors generally within 5 points for SSE 50 and CSI 300, and within 10 points for CSI 500 and CSI 1000[61][65][43] - The report highlights the predictive accuracy of the model for stock index futures contracts, showing minimal deviation between forecasted and actual dividend points for contracts across different indices[65][68][70]

市场情绪：20260107 市场情绪较为高涨，收盘时有 96 只股票涨停，有 7 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票今日收盘收益为 1.51%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘 收益为-3.37%。今日封板率 64%，较前日下降 19%，连板率 24%，较前日 下降 18%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260106 两融余额为 25799 亿元，其中融资余额 25623 亿元，融券余额 176 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.5%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 11.6%。 折溢价：20260106 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是中证 500 价值 ETF，ETF 折价 较多的是 G60 创新 ETF。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 22 亿元， 20260106 当日大宗交易成交金额为 26 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.69%，当日折价率为 9.26%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、 中证 1000 股指期货主力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.85%、3.79%、 11.15%、13.61%，当日上证 50 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 0.23%， 处于近一年来 60%分位点，当日沪深 300 股指 ...

2026年01月07日 证券研究报告 | 垂类AI应用专题： 领先的独立大模型公司智谱，产品矩阵快速扩张 行业研究 · 行业快评 计算机 · 人工智能 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：熊莉 联系人：侯睿 xiongli1@guosen.com.cn S0980519030002 021-61761067 hourui3@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 国内领先的AI公司，产品进入快速迭代阶段。北京智谱华章科技股份有限公司成立于2019年，是中国领先的AI公司，致力于追求通用人工智能创新。公司为机构客 户及个人用户提供通用大模型服务，已为逾八千家机构客户、约80百万台设备提供支持。以2024年收入计，公司是中国最大的独立大语言模型厂商及第二大大语言 模型厂商，市占率达6.6%，2022、2023、2024、2025H1公司日均token消耗量分别为5亿、21亿、0.2万亿及4.6万亿。 Ø 公司收入高速增长，净利润短期承压。2025H1公司实现收入1.91亿元，同比增长35.03%。分业务来看，本地化部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the 3D printing industry [1] Core Insights - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is dominated by domestic manufacturers, with AI facilitating a prosperous ecosystem. The global consumer-grade 3D printer market is expected to reach $4.1 billion in 2024, growing to $16.9 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% [2][21] - The industrial-grade 3D printing sector requires breakthroughs in core components, with applications gradually moving towards scale. Key components such as high-end lasers, galvanometers, and inkjet nozzles still need to be localized [2][49] - Domestic manufacturers are making continuous breakthroughs across various segments of 3D printing, with companies like Aisike achieving localization in piezoelectric inkjet nozzles and Jin Chengzi leading in laser processing control systems [2][49] Summary by Sections 1. 3D Printing in Consumer and Industrial Markets - 3D printing is flourishing in both consumer and industrial markets, with distinct applications and technologies [12][91] 2. Rapid Development of Consumer Market, AI Enhancing Ecosystem - The consumer-grade market is rapidly growing, driven by AI advancements that lower modeling barriers and enhance user engagement [25][30] 3. Core Component Localization in Industrial 3D Printing, Diverse Applications - The localization of core components in industrial 3D printing is anticipated, with applications expanding across various sectors [2][49] 4. Rapid Development of Domestic Manufacturers, Continuous Breakthroughs - Domestic manufacturers are achieving significant advancements in 3D printing technology, with a focus on various segments and applications [2][49]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月07日 银行业 2026 年经营展望：资产负债篇 优于大市 到期存款流向是资负格局的关键 预计 M2 增速目标约 7.5%，信贷增速约 6.0%，社融增速约 8.0%。合理的 M2 增长须与经济增长相匹配，2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，促进经济稳定增 长，物价合理回升将作为政策的重要考量因素，预计实际 GDP 增速目标约 4.9%，名义 GDP 增速目标约 5.0%，对应的合理 M2 增速目标约 7.5%。以此测 算，2026 年 M2 增量约 25.4 万亿元，其中，财政净投放 M2 约 12.0 万亿元， 银行信贷（加回核销和 ABS）投放约 16.8 万亿元，其他因素合计回笼 M2 约 3.4 万亿元。对应的新增社融约 35.3 万亿元，增速约 8.0%。 信贷投向：对公强支持，贡献新增贷款约 80%~85%，零售结构性边际改善贡 献新增贷款约 10%~15%。2025 年 12 月《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重 要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，后续消费复苏需关注居民收入增速等 因素。我们判断 2026 年零售信贷呈现零售端呈现结构性分化，优质消 费场景信贷改善，个人 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月07日 银行业 2026 年经营展望：资产负债篇 优于大市 到期存款流向是资负格局的关键 预计 M2 增速目标约 7.5%，信贷增速约 6.0%，社融增速约 8.0%。合理的 M2 增长须与经济增长相匹配，2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，促进经济稳定增 长，物价合理回升将作为政策的重要考量因素，预计实际 GDP 增速目标约 4.9%，名义 GDP 增速目标约 5.0%，对应的合理 M2 增速目标约 7.5%。以此测 算，2026 年 M2 增量约 25.4 万亿元，其中，财政净投放 M2 约 12.0 万亿元， 银行信贷（加回核销和 ABS）投放约 16.8 万亿元，其他因素合计回笼 M2 约 3.4 万亿元。对应的新增社融约 35.3 万亿元，增速约 8.0%。 信贷投向：对公强支持，贡献新增贷款约 80%~85%，零售结构性边际改善贡 献新增贷款约 10%~15%。2025 年 12 月《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重 要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，后续消费复苏需关注居民收入增速等 因素。我们判断 2026 年零售信贷呈现零售端呈现结构性分化，优质消 费场景信贷改善，个人 ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The fixed income weekly report indicates a significant decline in ultra-long bonds, with the 30-year government bond yield spread at a historically low level of 40 basis points as of December 31, 2025, reflecting ongoing economic pressures and a lack of new government bond issuance expected in Q4 2026 [7][8][9] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 to 50.1 in December, marking the first return to the expansionary zone since April, which has implications for bond market dynamics and investor sentiment [10] Group 2: Chemical Industry - In December 2025, Brent crude oil futures averaged $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [10][11] - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for Q1 2026, which may stabilize oil prices amid fluctuating demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [11][12][13] Group 3: Home Appliance Industry - The continuation of the national subsidy policy for home appliances in 2026 is expected to stimulate domestic demand, with January production of white goods showing a positive trend due to the policy's impact [14][15] - The new subsidy policy focuses on six major appliance categories, providing a 15% subsidy for energy-efficient products, which is anticipated to drive consumer purchasing behavior [14][15] Group 4: AI Applications and Content Platforms - MiniMax, a global AI model company, has a significant presence in over 200 countries, with 73% of its revenue coming from overseas, indicating strong international market penetration [17][18] - The company has developed leading models in AI video and audio, with a focus on multi-modal integration expected to drive future growth in AI applications [18][19] Group 5: Electronic Industry - The electronic sector is poised for a strong start in 2026, with expectations of increased demand driven by AI-related growth and upcoming product innovations showcased at CES [23][24] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with companies like Longxin Technology planning to raise 29.5 billion for expansion, indicating a bullish outlook for domestic semiconductor production [26][28] Group 6: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The State Council's release of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" aims for significant improvements in solid waste management by 2030, which may lead to increased investment in waste-to-energy projects [31][32] - The number of new garbage incineration projects is expected to rise, with a projected investment of approximately 8.963 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a recovery in the sector [31][32] Group 7: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is transitioning from a state-led model to a private-driven model, emphasizing cost efficiency and technological innovation, which is expected to catalyze growth in the industry [33][34] - The upcoming years are seen as pivotal for China's commercial aerospace market, with significant projects like the "Thousand Flotilla Constellation" expected to drive commercialization [34]