Core Insights - The 2026 home appliance national subsidy policy is expected to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize retail sales, particularly in the white goods sector [2][3][20] - The policy continues to support the replacement of old appliances with new ones, focusing on six major categories, including refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price, capped at 1500 yuan per item [3][21][22] - The white goods production in January showed a positive trend, with a total output of 34.53 million units, representing a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by the national subsidy policy [4][24] Monthly Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - The national subsidy policy for 2026 aims to boost the replacement demand for home appliances, which is expected to support domestic sales [20][21] - January's white goods production saw a recovery, with air conditioner production increasing by 11% year-on-year, indicating a potential stabilization in demand [4][24] - In November, the domestic sales of major appliances faced pressure due to high base effects from the previous year, but exports of refrigerators and washing machines showed good growth [5][32] Key Data Tracking - In December, the home appliance sector experienced a relative return of -1.06% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.28% [34] - The prices of raw materials such as copper and aluminum increased by 13.5% and 4.8% respectively in December, while cold-rolled steel prices decreased by 3.2% [36] - The shipping index for major routes showed a mixed performance, with the West America route down by 6.4% and the Europe route up by 4.8% [45] Key Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights key companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL, and Gree Electric as strong performers in the white goods sector, with recommendations for investment based on their resilience and growth potential [14][15][54] - The home appliance industry is expected to face challenges due to high inflation in overseas markets and geopolitical tensions, but leading companies are adapting by enhancing local production capabilities [50][51]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [4] Core Views - The report indicates that oil prices experienced fluctuations and a downward trend in December 2025, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026, despite previous plans to increase output [1][16] - Demand for crude oil is expected to grow in 2025 and 2026, with estimates ranging from 83,000 to 130,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 86,000 to 138,000 barrels per day for 2026 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 [1][12] - The fluctuations in oil prices were attributed to various geopolitical events, including the attack on the Russian Friendship Pipeline and sanctions on Venezuela [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026, following a period of planned increases in late 2025 [1][16] - The report highlights that OPEC+ aims to maintain a balance in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026 [3][36] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies project an increase in crude oil demand for 2025 and 2026, with specific figures provided by OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] - The report notes that the refining industry in China is facing overcapacity issues, leading to stricter controls on new refining projects [3][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development, as key investment opportunities [4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月05日 制造成长周报（第 41 期） 优于大市 软银完成对 Open AI 的 400 亿美元投资，蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理 重点事件点评&重点关注：AI 基建、商业航天 事件 1-软银完成对 Open AI 的 400 亿美元投资：2025 年 12 月 30 日，软银 集团已于上周完成对 OpenAI 的最后一笔注资，金额约在 220 亿至 225 亿美 元之间，已完成对 OpenAI 的 400 亿美元投资承诺。 事件 2-蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理：2025 年 12 月 31 日，蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理： 拟募资 75 亿，需实现可复用火箭发射载荷成功入轨。 AI 基建点评：软银完成对 Open AI 的投资，xAI 收购第三座建筑，训练算力 将接近 GW，随着 AI 相关投资持续加码，AI 基建需求旺盛，相关产业链将继 续同步扩张受益。我们持续看好 AI 基建相关产业链，重点关注燃气轮机及 液冷方向。燃气轮机作为海外数据中心主用电源与备用电源将深度受益 AI 数据中心供电需求，GEV 超预期上修燃机订单与扩产也表明行业是超 长景气大周期。建议重点关注 AI 数据中 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is a leading manufacturer of anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding equipment, actively expanding into overseas markets and new business areas, particularly in HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generators) and oil and gas composite pipes, which are expected to drive growth [1][3] - The company has a projected revenue and net profit CAGR of 13.94% and 2.07% from 2018 to 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in overseas revenue share from 11% in 2021 to 55% in 2024 [1][29] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcycle in the HRSG market driven by the demand for gas turbines and AI data centers, with an estimated overseas HRSG demand of approximately 50-80 billion yuan over the next 3-5 years [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2007, specializes in anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding equipment, with applications in energy, environmental protection, and other industrial sectors [14] - It has a strong customer base, including major companies like GE and Hitachi, and is expanding its international presence in markets such as the UAE, the US, and Europe [14][19] Financial Performance - The company experienced a decline in domestic demand, leading to a decrease in revenue from 5.75 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.60 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit is expected to drop from 1.21 billion yuan in 2022 to 0.69 billion yuan in 2024 [25][29] - The overseas revenue share is projected to rise significantly, with a CAGR of 55.72% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards international markets [29] Business Segments - The HRSG segment is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for gas turbines, with the company investing in production capacity in Vietnam to meet North American market needs [2][3] - The oil and gas composite pipe business is also being developed, targeting the growing demand in the Middle East for deep-sea oil and gas extraction [3][19] Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 0.53 billion yuan, 1.79 billion yuan, and 3.46 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 132, 39, and 20 [3][8] - The reasonable stock valuation range is set between 67.50 and 74.25 yuan, indicating potential upside from the current closing price of 52.28 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company is fully promoting market-oriented transformation to address supply-demand matching issues. Short-term, the product structure and pricing of Moutai liquor are becoming more market-oriented, which is expected to show resilient performance in demand during the Spring Festival. The wholesale price is anticipated to stabilize and recover year-on-year, strengthening the support for valuation [3][8] - The company is expected to achieve stable performance through flexible policies and adjustments across multiple channels and products. The recent reforms are expected to improve the profitability of distributors, leading to a sequential improvement in channel profits [3][8] - In the medium to long term, the market-oriented reforms will help the company directly cultivate consumers. Its production, craftsmanship, and brand value remain industry-leading, ensuring continued brand valuation premium and investor returns even as perpetual growth rates converge [3][8] Summary by Sections Market-Oriented Transformation - Guizhou Moutai is implementing comprehensive market-oriented reforms, emphasizing consumer-centric approaches and adjusting product, channel, pricing, and incentive strategies [2][3] Product Strategy - The company is optimizing its product structure and pricing system, aiming to create a pyramid product system with "Feitian + Boutique" as the two major products. The 2026 Moutai liquor output is expected to remain stable, with an increase in the output of regular and boutique products while reducing non-standard products [4] Channel Strategy - The company has established a diversified sales model with a "4+6" channel ecosystem, planning to adjust product distribution and sales models to better match market demand. This includes enhancing the profitability of distributors and integrating online and offline channels [5][7] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 183.3 billion, 184.3 billion, and 186.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +5.3%, +0.5%, and +1.0% respectively. The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is 90.45 billion, 90.50 billion, and 91.79 billion yuan, with growth rates of +4.9%, 0.0%, and +1.4% respectively [3][9]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 2025 年债券行情回顾 收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄 估值曲线：2025 年债市收益率震荡上行；信用利差方面，多数品种利差 被动收窄。收益率方面，1 年期国债、10 年期国债、10 年期国开债分别 变动了 25BP、17BP、27BP，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别 变动了 15BP、8BP、9BP 和-41BP。信用利差方面，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、 3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别收窄了 4BP、12BP、11BP 和 61BP。 国债收益率震荡走高：年初资金面大幅收紧导致债市收益率整体上行，3 月 两会后，潘行长关于货币政策的表述推动市场修正预期，10 年期国债收益率 进一步升至 1.90%高位。二季度中美关税拉锯，叠加央行降准降息兑现，资 金面整体环比改善，10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.63%-1.67%区间震荡。三季 度"反内卷"政策推升通胀预期，权益走强压制债市，叠加基金费率新规与 债基赎回，债市收益率整体上行；但在央行呵护资金面背景下，短端收益率 较为平稳，债市呈现"熊 ...

- The report highlights that in December 2025, the top-performing factors in the broker's gold stock pool were single-quarter ROE, net analyst upgrades, and net operating cash flow, while volatility, single-quarter revenue growth, and intraday returns performed poorly[3][27] - Throughout 2025, the best-performing factors were total market capitalization, single-quarter revenue growth, and single-quarter ROE, while EPTTM, expected dividend yield, and volatility performed poorly[3][27] - The broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 5.24% in December 2025, with an excess return of 2.18% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][41] - For the year 2025, the broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 40.66%, with an excess return of 7.47% relative to the mixed equity fund index, ranking in the 32.60th percentile among active equity funds[5][41] - The construction of the broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio involves selecting stocks from the broker's gold stock pool, optimizing the portfolio to control deviations in individual stocks and styles, and using the industry distribution of all public funds as the industry allocation benchmark[42] - The historical performance of the broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio from 2018 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 21.71%, with an annualized excess return of 14.18% relative to the mixed equity fund index, consistently ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds each year[43][46]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 2025 年债券行情回顾 收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄 估值曲线：2025 年债市收益率震荡上行；信用利差方面，多数品种利差 被动收窄。收益率方面，1 年期国债、10 年期国债、10 年期国开债分别 变动了 25BP、17BP、27BP，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别 变动了 15BP、8BP、9BP 和-41BP。信用利差方面，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、 3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别收窄了 4BP、12BP、11BP 和 61BP。 国债收益率震荡走高：年初资金面大幅收紧导致债市收益率整体上行，3 月 两会后，潘行长关于货币政策的表述推动市场修正预期，10 年期国债收益率 进一步升至 1.90%高位。二季度中美关税拉锯，叠加央行降准降息兑现，资 金面整体环比改善，10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.63%-1.67%区间震荡。三季 度"反内卷"政策推升通胀预期，权益走强压制债市，叠加基金费率新规与 债基赎回，债市收益率整体上行；但在央行呵护资金面背景下，短端收益率 较为平稳，债市呈现"熊 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[4][35][37] - It provides performance metrics for quantitative public funds, including index-enhanced funds and quantitative hedging funds[35][37] - Index-enhanced funds achieved a median excess return of -0.08% last week and 4.67% year-to-date[35][37] - Quantitative hedging funds achieved a median return of 0.10% last week and 1.24% year-to-date[35][37] - The report lists top-performing index-enhanced funds and quantitative hedging funds based on weekly and annual performance metrics[58][59][61][62]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 基金周报 第 22 届基金业金牛奖评选结果揭晓，易方达率先完成 ETF 规范命名 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数走势出现分化，上证综指、 中证 500、中小板指收益靠前，收益分别为 0.13%、0.09%、-0.01%， 创业板指、沪深 300、深证成指收益靠后，收益分别为-1.25%、-0.59%、 -0.58%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。行业方面，上周 综合金融、石油石化、国防军工收益靠前，收益分别为 5.13%、3.92%、 3.83%，商贸零售、电力及公用事业、食品饮料收益靠后，收益分别为 -3.13%、-2.35%、-2.28%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净投放资金 11710 亿元，逆回购到期 13236 亿元，净公开市场投放 1526 亿元。不同期限的国债利率均有所上行， 利差缩窄 4.03BP。 上周共上报 48 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所减少。申报的产品包括 1 只 REITs，2 只 QDII，3 只 FOF，华宝中证全指家用电器 ETF、广发中 证港股通信息技术 ...