证券研究报告 | 2026年01月09日 热点追踪周报 由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第 226 期） 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，上证指数、深证 成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 0.00%、0.00%、0.66%、0.00%、0.00%、0.00%、 0.06%、4.10%。中信一级行业指数中家电、国防军工、有色金属、传媒、 电子行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、银行、医药、房地产、 电力及公用事业行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指数中，新能源汽 车、华为平台、互联网、金属非金属、电子设备和仪器、半导体、工程 机械等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，共 911 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是机械、电子、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是国防军工、有 色金属、石油石化行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、科技板块创新高股 票数量最多；按照指数分布来 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Trends - The global commodity market has experienced a structural uptrend since late 2025, led by industrial and precious metals, while traditional cyclical products have shown lackluster performance[1] - LME copper prices surged from below $8,000/ton to over $13,000/ton, marking a cumulative increase of over 60%, despite the US manufacturing PMI remaining in a contraction zone of 48.2%-48.3%[2] - The divergence between commodity prices and manufacturing demand indicates a decoupling from traditional manufacturing cycles, driven by rising geopolitical uncertainties and trade protectionism[2][14] Group 2: Demand Dynamics and Economic Shifts - The current market is characterized by extreme differentiation among commodities, with indicators like the copper-oil ratio exceeding two standard deviations, reflecting a fundamental shift in global economic growth models[3][27] - The transition from a traditional growth model centered on real estate and infrastructure to a digital economy model focused on "computing power + electricity" is reshaping demand for commodities[3][31] - Major tech companies are expected to maintain over 20% capital expenditure growth in AI infrastructure, significantly impacting demand for conductive materials like copper and silver[31][33] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The commodity market is entering a new phase driven by "computing power + security," where geopolitical risks create a safety premium, enhancing the financial attributes of commodities[4][34] - Short-term risks include potential price corrections for certain commodities that have surged too quickly, possibly overshooting future demand expectations[4][37] - Ongoing volatility in overseas markets and declining economic growth rates pose additional risks to the commodity landscape[5][38]

Group 1: Market Trends - The global commodity market has entered a structural uptrend since late 2025, led by industrial and precious metals, while traditional cyclical products have shown lackluster performance[1] - LME copper prices surged from under $8,000/ton to over $13,000/ton, a cumulative increase of over 60%, despite the US manufacturing PMI remaining in a contraction zone of 48.2%-48.3%[2] - The divergence between commodity prices and manufacturing demand indicates a decoupling from traditional manufacturing cycles, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain security concerns[16] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The current market features extreme differentiation among commodities, with indicators like the copper-oil ratio exceeding two standard deviations, reflecting a fundamental shift in global economic growth models[3] - The transition from a traditional growth model centered on real estate and infrastructure to a digital economy model focused on "computing power + electricity" is creating new demand chains for commodities[3] - Major tech companies are expected to maintain over 20% capital expenditure growth in AI infrastructure, significantly impacting demand for conductive materials like copper and silver[31] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The commodity market is entering a new paradigm driven by "computing power + security," where geopolitical risks create a safety premium, enhancing the financial attributes of commodities[4] - Short-term risks include potential price corrections for certain commodities that have surged too quickly, possibly overextending future demand expectations[4] - Economic indicators show a decline in fixed asset investment at -2.6% year-on-year, while retail sales and exports have shown modest growth of 1.3% and 5.9% respectively[7]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The core conclusion indicates that the incremental capital entering the A-share market in 2025 is characterized by active funds such as leveraged and private equity funds, with a significant inflow from insurance capital, while public equity funds are experiencing net redemptions [7][10] - It is expected that in 2026, the total incremental capital will reach 2 trillion yuan, driven by a recovery in risk appetite among residents, particularly from high-net-worth individuals [10][9] - The market environment in 2025 shows similarities to 2020, but the structure of incremental capital differs, suggesting a gradual increase in resident participation in the market [10][9] Group 2: Agricultural Industry - The agricultural sector is witnessing a potential upward trend in beef prices due to the implementation of import guarantee measures, indicating a reversal in the livestock cycle [15] - As of December 31, 2025, the price of live pigs was 12.67 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.37%, while beef prices reached 60.91 yuan/kg, up 20.61% year-on-year [16][15] - The report highlights the importance of supply-demand dynamics in the agricultural sector, with a focus on the recovery of pork prices and the potential for sustained growth in beef prices [15][16] Group 3: Chemical Industry - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic production expected to decrease while imports are projected to rise, leading to a historical high in import volumes [24][25] - The price of potassium chloride as of December 31, 2025, was 3,282 yuan/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.45%, driven by the need for food security [24][25] - The report anticipates a long-term price stability for phosphate rock due to increasing demand from new energy materials, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high [25][26] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The general aviation market is poised for steady development, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and market expansion [18][19] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in low-altitude operations, with a focus on high-value applications such as logistics and maritime transport [20][21] - The global general aviation market is projected to grow, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 4.72% by 2029, indicating significant opportunities for domestic players [19][20] Group 5: Media and Internet Industry - The media sector has shown resilience, with a 2.27% increase in the industry index, outperforming major indices [22] - Upcoming IPOs for companies like Minimax and Zhiyu are anticipated to attract attention, particularly in the AI application sector [22][23] - The report highlights the strong performance of films during the New Year period, indicating a recovery in consumer spending in the entertainment sector [23][24]

市场资金流向：截至 20260107 两融余额为 26047 亿元，其中融资余额 25872 亿元，融券余额 175 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 11.5%。 折溢价：20260107 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是中证 500 价值 ETF，ETF 折价 较多的是线上消费 ETF 基金。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 22 亿 元，20260107 当日大宗交易成交金额为 21 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.71%，当日折价率为 6.75%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、 中证 1000 股指期货主力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.85%、3.79%、 11.15%、13.61%，当日上证 50 股指期货主力合约年化升水率为 0.06%， 处于近一年来 67%分位点，当日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 2.26%，处于近一年来 71%分位点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化贴 水率为 5.64%，处于近一年来 83%分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合 约年化贴水率为 10.52%，处于近一年来 73%分位点。 机构 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market will see significant inflows of incremental funds, primarily from leveraged funds and private equity, while public funds are experiencing net redemptions [1][4] - The current inflow of funds is expected to be mainly from high-net-worth individuals, with ordinary residents likely becoming the main source of market funds by 2026 as their risk appetite recovers [1][3] - The macroeconomic and microeconomic context of 2025 shows similarities to 2020, but the structure of incremental funds differs, leading to an estimated total inflow of 2 trillion yuan in 2026 [1][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the main source of incremental funds in the A-share market will be active funds, with a notable inflow of 4.2 billion yuan from insurance funds and 7 billion yuan from leveraged funds since July [2][19] - The first half of 2025 saw a diverse inflow of funds, with retail investors contributing 240 billion yuan and foreign capital returning with approximately 100 billion yuan [2][13] - The third quarter of 2025 experienced a significant increase in market activity, with private equity funds estimated to have injected around 400 billion yuan into the stock market [2][19] Group 3 - The process of resident funds entering the market is still in its early stages, primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals, as the overall risk appetite among residents remains low [3][36] - Evidence suggests that while some resident funds are entering the market, the majority are still cautious, with a significant portion of funds remaining in low-risk products [3][37] - The willingness of residents to invest in high-risk assets has been gradually increasing, but overall expectations regarding income and housing prices remain low, limiting broader market participation [3][41] Group 4 - The expected net inflow of funds in 2026 is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from retail investors and insurance funds, alongside improvements in public and foreign capital [4][55] - The structure of incremental funds in 2025 shows a shift compared to 2020, with a greater reliance on leveraged and private equity funds rather than resident funds [4][50] - The anticipated inflow from insurance funds is estimated at 700 billion yuan, while public and foreign funds are expected to improve, contributing around 700 billion yuan each [4][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry index underperformed compared to the Shenwan Chemical Index and the CSI 300 Index in December, with a 1.89% increase, lagging behind the Shenwan Chemical Index by 2.54 percentage points [1][15]. - The long-term contracts for refrigerants are expected to stabilize, with prices for R32 and R410A increasing in the first quarter of 2026 [2][23]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to rise due to advancements in liquid cooling technologies driven by AI and high-density server requirements [4][60]. Summary by Sections 1. December Fluorochemical Industry Performance - As of December 31, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3968.84 points, up 2.06% from November, while the fluorochemical index was at 2018.62 points, up 1.89% [1][15]. 2. December Refrigerant Market Review - The long-term contract prices for R32 and R410A are set to increase, with R32 at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively [2][23]. - The prices for R134a, R125, and R410A have also seen significant increases, with R134a reaching 58,000 CNY/ton, up 4.50% from the previous month [2][24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Driving Demand for Fluorinated Liquids and Refrigerants - The report highlights the shift from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling in data centers, which is expected to significantly increase the demand for fluorinated liquids [4][60]. - The liquid cooling market is projected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% from 2019 to 2027, potentially exceeding 100 billion CNY [60][63]. 4. 2026 Refrigerant Quota Announcement - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the refrigerant quotas for 2026, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [67][70]. - The report suggests that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support the long-term price stability and profitability of leading companies in the sector [67][72]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are rated as "Outperform," with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) [5] Core Insights - The BSE has seen a rebound in trading activity, with a total of 288 listed companies and a total market capitalization of 869.44 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% increase in total market value and a 3.6% increase in circulating market value month-on-month [13][12] - The BSE's trading volume reached 19.344 billion shares and a transaction amount of 438.402 billion yuan in December, with a month-on-month increase of 13.9% in trading volume and 16.4% in transaction amount [17][20] - The BSE 50 Index's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is 43.78, placing it at the 56.73 percentile over the past two years, while the price-to-book ratio (PB-MRQ) is 8.85, at the 85.09 percentile [25][26] - The BSE 50 Index experienced a cumulative increase of 3.80% in December, indicating a strong upward trend [29] Market Overview - The BSE added three new companies in December: Hengdongguang (920045.BJ), Jiangtian Technology (920121.BJ), and Jingchuang Electric (920035.BJ) [13][3] - The average daily margin balance in December was 7.739 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.64% compared to the previous month [22] Industry Performance - The report highlights that the performance across various industries on the BSE was mixed, with significant gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, automotive, telecommunications, and media, while sectors like utilities, social services, beauty care, agriculture, and defense saw declines [33][34] - The top-performing stocks for the month included Hengdongguang, Jingchuang Electric, and Jiangtian Technology [38] Policy and Important Events - The BSE has shown positive dynamics in listing reviews, institutional research, thematic funds, and new stock performance, indicating a clear policy direction aimed at enhancing market vitality and service efficiency [4]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market will see significant inflows of incremental funds, primarily from leveraged funds and private equity, while public funds are experiencing net redemptions [1][4] - The current inflow of funds is expected to be mainly from high-net-worth individuals, with ordinary residents likely becoming the main source of market funds by 2026 as their risk appetite recovers [1][3] - The macroeconomic and microeconomic context of 2025 shows similarities to 2020, but the structure of incremental funds differs, leading to an estimated total inflow of 2 trillion yuan in 2026 [1][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the main source of incremental funds in the A-share market will be active funds, with a notable inflow of 4.2 billion yuan from insurance funds and 4 billion yuan from private equity in the first half of the year [2][13] - The inflow of funds in 2025 can be divided into two phases: the first half saw a recovery in the market supported by policies and industry catalysts, while the third quarter experienced a surge in private equity and leveraged funds [2][19] - The sectors that attracted the most incremental funds in the first half of 2025 included technology and dividend sectors, while the third quarter saw significant inflows into non-ferrous metals, electronics, and new energy sectors [2][20] Group 3 - The process of resident funds entering the market is still in its early stages, primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals, with overall risk appetite among residents gradually improving [3][32] - Despite signs of recovery in risk appetite, the majority of resident funds have not yet entered the market on a large scale, with many still preferring low-risk investment products [3][36] - The current low expectations for income and housing prices among residents are major factors hindering a broader entry of resident funds into the market [3][41] Group 4 - The expected net inflow of micro funds in 2026 is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from retail investors and insurance funds [4][55] - The structure of incremental funds in 2025 shows a shift compared to 2020, with a greater reliance on leveraged funds and private equity rather than resident funds [4][50] - The anticipated inflow from insurance funds is expected to be around 700 billion yuan, while public and foreign funds are also expected to improve [4][57]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 氟化工行业：2025 年 12 月月度观察 优于大市 一季度制冷剂长协价格落地，关注 PVDF 价格持续修复 12 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 12 月末（12 月 31 日），上证综指报 3968.84 点， 较 11 月末（11 月 28 日）上涨 2.06%；沪深 300 指数报 4629.94 点，较 11 月末上涨 2.28%；申万化工指数报 4372.39，较 11 月末上涨 4.43%；氟化工 指数报 2018.62 点，较 11 月末上涨 1.89%。12 月氟化工行业指数跑输申万 化工指数 2.54pct,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39pct，跑输上证综指 0.17pct。 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨。展望一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确 定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳定：据卓创资讯，R32 长协价格将在 61200 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度价格上涨 1000 元/吨，涨幅 1.66%；R410A 长协价格在 55100 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度上涨 1900 元/吨，涨 幅 3.57%。预计往后一周 R32 价格区间 ...