- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views - Amid complex global macro - economic conditions and increased bond market volatility, traditional bond long - only strategies face challenges, and treasury bond futures have become important for risk management and asset allocation in bond investment portfolios [13]. - The report details the current situation of public funds' participation in treasury bond futures, analyzes the design logic of negative - duration funds, and explores using treasury bond futures to hedge interest - rate risks for all - weather bond asset allocation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Public Funds' Current Participation in Treasury Bond Futures - **Increasing Position Size with 1% Market Share**: By the end of Q3 2025, 141 public funds held treasury bond futures, holding a total of 13,068 contracts, including 3,992 long contracts (0.6% of the market) and 9,076 short contracts (1.4% of the market). Public funds are required to disclose treasury bond futures trading information in regular reports [17]. - **Short - Dominant Position Structure**: At the end of Q3 2025, 79 public funds held net short positions in treasury bond futures, with a short - contract market value of about 11 billion yuan, compared to 60 funds with net long positions and a long - contract market value of about 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a preference for short positions to hedge interest - rate risks [18]. - **Strategy and Contract Selection: Focus on Single - Variety and Single - Maturity**: In Q3 2025, 63.8% of funds held single - maturity treasury bond futures contracts (39 long - position and 51 short - position funds), while 36.2% held multi - variety or multi - maturity contracts [24]. - **Concentration on Active Contracts**: In Q3 2025, over 90% of public funds' positions were in the T2512, TS2512, and TL2512 active contracts, and the number of short positions in the TL2512 and T2512 contracts was significantly higher than long positions [27]. - **Mid - and Long - Term Pure - Bond Funds as the Main Allocators**: By the end of Q3 2025, mid - and long - term pure - bond funds were the main participants in treasury bond futures, with 47 funds holding positions, followed by hybrid bond - type secondary funds with 29 funds. The scale of mid - and long - term pure - bond funds' positions was about 8.78 billion yuan [28][33]. - **Leading Layout by Top - Tier Institutions**: By the end of Q3 2025, top - tier fund companies led in treasury bond futures layout. Harvest Fund and E Fund each had 14 related products, followed by China Merchants Fund with 10 products [37]. - **Significant Differences in Allocation Intensity Among Products**: The allocation intensity of public funds to treasury bond futures varies. For example, E Fund Credit Bond has a higher short - position allocation ratio than the market average, and Huataibaoxing Kaiyuan 3 - Month has a contract - market - value - to - fund - scale ratio of 27.1%, much higher than the industry average [40]. Negative - Duration Investment Strategy Based on Treasury Bond Futures Shorts - **Existing Negative - Duration Funds**: There are few negative - duration funds in the market, and the degree of negative duration is limited. This may be due to data errors in calculations and regulatory requirements for hedging purposes [46]. - **Constructing a Negative - Duration Portfolio**: Under regulatory constraints, to maximize negative duration, the following steps can be taken: invest only in cash bonds and treasury bond futures, set the short - position market - value ratio of treasury bond futures at a maximum of 30%, set the portfolio leverage at a maximum of 140%, short 30 - year treasury bond futures, and choose short - term bonds with a duration close to 0. The longest negative duration of a fund can reach - 7.1 years [51][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights that policies promoting service consumption are continuously being strengthened, injecting new vitality into the industry. Key initiatives include the emphasis on releasing service consumption potential and enhancing trade and investment facilitation in Hainan Free Trade Port [2][18][19]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 3.15% during the period from December 29, 2025, to January 11, 2026, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.96 percentage points [13][14]. - Companies such as Ctrip have leveraged AI technology to enhance product recommendation efficiency, achieving an improvement of over 8% [23]. Summary by Sections Industry Review - The consumer services sector saw significant stock performance, with notable gains from companies like Tianli International Holdings (19.92%) and Renrui Talent (12.56%) during the reporting period [14][17]. - The report indicates that the social services sector's valuation is expected to continue recovering due to favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [31]. Company Dynamics - The report notes the completion of the third phase of the Sanya International Duty-Free City project, which is expected to be completed in stages starting in 2026, with a total investment of 7 billion CNY [21]. - Ctrip's "Smart Engine 3.0" has significantly improved product recommendation efficiency, marking a shift towards AI-driven solutions in the travel industry [23]. Stock Holdings Analysis - The report details changes in stock holdings among key companies, with increases in holdings for Mijiu Group, Guming, and China Oriental Education, while companies like Haidilao and Tianli International Holdings saw decreases [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies such as China Duty Free Group, Huatu Shanding, and Huazhu Group, among others, for potential investment opportunities in the medium to long term [31].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the coal market in 2025 experienced a supply surplus, with policies playing a crucial role in stabilizing the market amidst weak demand [2][12][15] - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw coal production remained high, increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, while coal consumption only grew by 0.4%, leading to significant inventory accumulation at ports [14][15] - The report highlights that coal prices fluctuated significantly, starting at 763 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year and dropping to 610 CNY/ton by mid-June, before experiencing a rebound due to seasonal demand and supply tightening [2][12][15] Group 2 - For 2026, the report anticipates improvements in the coal supply-demand balance, with thermal coal prices expected to fluctuate between 650-850 CNY/ton, centering around 750 CNY/ton [2][3] - The supply side is expected to be influenced by policies focusing on safety production and coal price stability, with an estimated peak annual production of around 4.8 billion tons [2][3][30] - The demand side is projected to see a recovery in thermal power generation, while non-electric demand from sectors like chemicals is expected to maintain growth [2][3][30] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest prioritizing coal companies with strong growth potential and stable operations, particularly those with high dividend yields in the current low-interest macro environment [2][3] - Specific companies highlighted for growth potential include Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment Corporation, Huayang Co., and Xinji Energy, while stable long-term investments include China Shenhua Energy and Shanxi Coal and Energy [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and market dynamics, particularly regarding production controls and safety inspections, which will significantly impact future coal supply [30][32]

2026年01月12日 证券研究报告 | 半导体1月投资策略： 关注FAB和存储大厂扩产链及周期复苏的模拟芯片 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 电子 · 半导体 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：胡剑 证券分析师：胡慧 证券分析师：张大为 证券分析师：詹浏洋 证券分析师：李书颖 S0980521080001 S0980521080002 S0980524100002 S0980524060001 S0980524090005 021-60893306 021-60871321 021-61761072 010-88005307 0755-81982362 hujian1@guosen.com.cn huhui2@guosen.com.cn zhangdawei1@guosen.com.cn zhanliuyang@guosen.com.cn lishuying@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 关注FAB和存储大厂扩产链及周期复苏的模拟芯片 l 12月SW半导体指数上涨4.47%，估值处于2019年以来80.92%分位 2025年12月SW半导体指数上涨4.47%，跑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [3][56]. Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to benefit from increased policy support, with leading companies poised for growth [1][3]. - The overall consumption environment in 2025 is projected to be stable, with structural highlights emerging, particularly as consumption policies become clearer [1][12]. - The report identifies two main trends for 2026: the continuation of new consumption trends and the anticipated reversal of challenges faced by traditional consumption [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - In 2025, the SW retail index increased by 11.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.1 percentage points, while the beauty care index rose by only 0.4%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 17.35 percentage points [1][16]. - The retail sector's performance was initially strong in the first half of 2025 but faced a decline in the second half due to a shift in market focus towards technology [1][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several sectors for investment: 1. **Gold and Jewelry**: The sector is entering a consumption peak, with low valuations and expected growth in same-store sales and channel expansion. Recommended companies include潮宏基, 菜百股份, and 周大福 [3][56]. 2. **Beauty and Personal Care**: The sector is returning to low valuations, with traditional leaders showing signs of recovery. Recommended companies include 上美股份 and 珀莱雅 [3][56]. 3. **Offline Retail**: The end of the year is a peak sales period, with potential positive impacts from CPI recovery. Recommended companies include 名创优品 and 永辉超市 [3][56]. 4. **Cross-border E-commerce**: Companies are expected to benefit from reduced external tariff impacts, with recommendations including 小商品城 and 安克创新 [3][56]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, all rated "Outperform" for 2025 and 2026, including 潮宏基, 上美股份, and 珀莱雅, with respective PE ratios indicating growth potential [5][59]. Recent Industry Data Tracking - As of November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The growth was influenced by high base effects and the timing of promotional events [26][30]. - Online retail sales for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 144,582 billion yuan, growing by 9.1%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [28][30]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - Recent policy initiatives emphasize the importance of boosting consumer spending, with a focus on increasing the consumption rate and stabilizing demand through various measures [13][24]. - The report anticipates that traditional consumption leaders will gradually improve their performance as they adapt to new market conditions and innovate their product offerings [24][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights that policies promoting service consumption are continuously being strengthened, injecting new vitality into the industry. Key initiatives include the emphasis on releasing service consumption potential and enhancing trade and investment facilitation in Hainan Free Trade Port [2][18][19]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 3.15% during the period from December 29, 2025, to January 11, 2026, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.96 percentage points [13][14]. - Companies such as Tianli International Holdings and Renrui Talent saw significant stock price increases of 19.92% and 12.56%, respectively, during the reporting period [14][30]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policies in the service consumption sector are aimed at stimulating growth, including measures from the National Business Work Conference and Shanghai's 16 initiatives to enhance service consumption [2][18][19]. - The Sanya International Duty-Free City Phase III project has been capped, with a total investment of 7 billion CNY, expected to be completed in phases starting in 2026 [21]. - Ctrip's "Smart Engine 3.0" has improved product recommendation efficiency by over 8%, showcasing the impact of AI on the industry [23]. Stock Holdings Analysis - Core stocks in the Hong Kong market, such as Mixue Group and Gu Ming, have seen increased holdings, while others like Haidilao and Tianli International Holdings experienced slight decreases [3][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued focus on companies like China Duty Free Group, Huatu Shanding, and Ctrip Group, among others, as potential investment opportunities in the current economic environment [4][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the global macro - economic environment has been complex and volatile. The bond market has entered a new cycle of increased volatility. Relying solely on traditional bond long - only strategies faces challenges, and treasury bond futures have become important tools for risk management and asset allocation. The report details the current situation of public funds' participation in treasury bond futures and explores the design logic of negative - duration funds to achieve all - weather allocation of bond assets [13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Public Funds' Current Participation in Treasury Bond Futures - **Increasing Position Size and 1% Market Share**: By the end of Q3 2025, 141 public funds held treasury bond futures, with a total of 13,068 contracts (3,992 long contracts, accounting for 0.6% of the market's long contracts; 9,076 short contracts, accounting for 1.4% of the market's short contracts). Public funds are required to disclose treasury bond futures trading information in regular reports [15][17] - **Short - Dominated Position Structure**: As of the end of Q3 2025, 79 public funds had net short positions in treasury bond futures, while 60 had net long positions. The market value of short contracts was about 11 billion yuan, higher than the 5.6 - billion - yuan market value of long contracts, indicating a preference for short positions to hedge against interest - rate risks [18] - **Strategy and Contract Selection: Focus on Single - Variety and Single - Maturity**: In Q3 2025, 63.8% of funds held single - maturity treasury bond futures contracts, with 39 long - position funds and 51 short - position funds, far more than those using cross - variety or cross - maturity strategies [23][24] - **Concentration on Active Contracts**: In Q3 2025, the combined position of T2512, TS2512, and TL2512 active contracts accounted for over 90%. The number of short contracts for TL2512 and T2512 was significantly higher than that of long contracts [27] - **Mid - and Long - Term Pure Bond Funds as the Main Force**: By the end of Q3 2025, mid - and long - term pure bond funds were the main participants in the treasury bond futures market, with 47 funds, an increase of 4 compared to Q2. The number of partial - debt hybrid funds also increased, while the number of short - term pure bond funds, hybrid bond - type secondary funds, and hybrid bond - type primary funds decreased [28][31] - **Leading Layout by Top - Tier Institutions**: By the end of Q3 2025, top - tier fund companies such as Harvest Fund and E Fund each had 14 related products, showing an advanced ability in interest - rate risk management [37] - **Significant Differences in Allocation Intensity**: The allocation intensity of treasury bond futures among different public funds varies greatly, mainly due to differences in investment strategies, risk - tolerance levels, and interest - rate risk judgments. For example, E Fund Credit Bond had a higher short - position allocation ratio than the market average, and Huataibaoxing Kaiyuan 3 - Month had a contract - value - to - fund - scale ratio of 27.1% [40] Negative - Duration Investment Strategy Based on Treasury Bond Futures Shorts - **Stock "Negative - Duration" Funds**: The current stock of "negative - duration" funds is small, and the degree of "negativity" in duration is limited. This may be due to data errors in the calculation and the regulatory requirement of using treasury bond futures for hedging purposes. These funds typically hold bonds with a duration of about one year, mainly short 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures, and the combined duration of futures and bonds is mostly within negative one year [46] - **Constructing a "Negative - Duration" Portfolio**: To maximize the negative duration within regulatory requirements, the following operations can be adopted: investing only in cash bonds and treasury bond futures, setting the short - position market value of treasury bond futures at a maximum of 30%, leveraging the portfolio to a maximum of 140%, short - selling 30 - year treasury bond futures, and choosing short - term bonds with a duration close to 0. The maximum negative duration of the fund can reach - 7.1 years [50][51][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [4][5][70]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is entering a peak stocking season ahead of the Spring Festival, with multiple favorable catalysts for the restaurant supply chain [1]. - The report highlights a divergence in the fundamentals of different categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include cost advantages from low raw material prices, efficiency improvements through supply chain optimization, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery in distressed sectors [3][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Alcoholic Beverages - The report emphasizes the strong dividend characteristics of the liquor sector, particularly with Moutai's market reforms gradually taking effect. It suggests that high-quality companies with pricing power and regional influence are likely to achieve greater growth [2][10]. - Recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on their growth potential and market positioning [2][10]. Beer - The beer industry is currently managing inventory well and is poised for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer for its rapid growth and strong internal reforms [11]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing orderly stocking for the Spring Festival, with a recommendation for leading companies like Yili, which is expected to benefit from improved margins and demand recovery [14]. Snacks - The report suggests focusing on strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly those innovating in konjac products. Leading companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi are highlighted for their competitive advantages and growth potential [12][17]. Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is entering a busy stocking season, with clear recovery trends. Recommendations include leading companies in the compound seasoning sector and those with national capacity and channel layouts [13][14]. Beverage Sector - The beverage sector is primarily focused on destocking during the off-season, with stable stocking for the Spring Festival. Leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage are recommended for their aggressive growth strategies [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the consumer-grade 3D printing industry [1] Core Insights - Technological advancements are driving the growth of the consumer-grade 3D printing industry, which is entering a period of widespread adoption. The global market is expected to exceed $4 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% from 2020 to 2024. The sales of 3D printers alone are projected to reach $2.1 billion, growing at a CAGR of 21% during the same period [3][15] - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is characterized by intense competition, with Chinese companies dominating the landscape. By 2024, China is expected to account for 45% of global 3D printer exports, with major markets in the US and Europe [3][24] - The report highlights the growth potential of 3D printing consumables, which are expected to reach $1 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 36% from 2024 to 2029. Chinese companies are gradually capturing market share in this segment [3][45] Summary by Sections 1. Technological Advancements Driving Growth - Continuous improvements in hardware and software are lowering the operational barriers for consumer-grade 3D printing, leading to increased market penetration. The global consumer-grade 3D printing market is projected to reach $4 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 28% from 2020 to 2024 [3][15] - The number of consumer-grade 3D printers is expected to reach approximately 15.8 million units globally by 2024, indicating a penetration rate of only 1.8% among the 860 million households in the US, Europe, and China, suggesting significant growth potential [3][15] 2. Competitive Landscape - The report identifies a competitive landscape where Chinese companies, such as Chuangxiang Sanwei and Tuozhu, are leading the market. Chuangxiang Sanwei holds a market share of 28% in cumulative shipments from 2020 to 2024, while Tuozhu is expected to lead in 2024 with a 29% market share [3][27] - The competition is primarily driven by product capabilities, with a focus on technological research and development, as well as supply chain efficiency [3][28] 3. Company Profiles - Chuangxiang Sanwei offers a diverse range of products, including 3D printers, consumables, and services, with projected revenues of 2.3 billion yuan in 2024 and a stable gross margin of around 30% [3][35] - Tuozhu Technology focuses on integrating advanced technologies into their 3D printers, enhancing user experience and product performance, which has propelled them to the top of the industry [3][44] 4. Growth of 3D Printing Consumables - The consumables segment is expected to grow significantly, with the market projected to reach $1 billion by 2024, driven by the increasing number of 3D printers in use. The CAGR for this segment is anticipated to be 36% from 2024 to 2029 [3][45] - Chinese companies are gradually increasing their market share in the consumables sector, particularly in upstream resin production and modified plastics [3][45]