出海范式全面升级，从产品输出迈向体系出海成为核心主线。2026 年 A 股公 司出海已告别单纯的商品出口阶段，进入产能、品牌、管理体系协同输出的 质变期。量化数据显示，2723 家涉出海业务的 A 股公司中，60.96%持积极态 度，12393 条相关公告中 45.38%为积极类表述，反映出出海已从可选战略转 为必选动作。龙头企业通过海外建厂、本地化运营、全产业链配套，实现从 中国制造到全球制造的跨越。 "双高"行业成出海主力，技术壁垒与产业集聚度决定长期价值。行业选择 的核心逻辑聚焦高技术护城河与强产业集聚度，这两类行业既具备不可替代 性，又拥有成本与效率优势。三大黄金赛道：化工新材料（聚氨酯、玻纤） 凭借全球定价权与海外基地布局规避贸易壁垒；高端装备（客车、工程机械、 半导体设备）依托技术外溢抢占"连接器国家"市场；电子元器件（服务器、 MLCC）受益于全球 AI 算力基建与汽车电子化需求。从数据看，机械设备、 电力设备、医药生物、计算机、汽车五大行业积极类公司数占比超七成，成 为出海核心载体。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月25日 资配跨年展望(二) 大国出海下的"新核心资产" 区域机会呈现差异化， ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Core Insights - The rise of robo-advisors is driven by the integration of financial technology and traditional wealth management, offering low costs, high accessibility, and convenience. Post-global financial crisis, stricter regulations and technological advancements have facilitated the emergence of non-bank fintech companies, with robo-advisors serving as a cost-effective alternative to human advisors. They utilize algorithms to automatically construct investment portfolios, significantly reducing advisory fees and breaking geographical barriers, allowing investors to access professional services anytime and anywhere. Robo-advisors particularly attract low-income groups and younger users by minimizing trading costs through passive investment strategies, enhancing capital market participation for long-term goals like retirement and emergency savings. The evolution of robo-advisors has progressed through four stages: early online questionnaires and static advice, full automation and passive management, establishment of hybrid models, and AI-driven hyper-personalization and intelligent agents [2][9][10]. - The global robo-advisory market is experiencing rapid expansion, with the U.S. maintaining a dominant position while emerging markets like China show significant potential for growth. The market size is projected to increase from $7.7 billion in 2023 to approximately $116.4 billion by 2033, with the U.S. accounting for 81% of global assets under management (AUM). The competitive landscape in the U.S. has formed a "three giants and many strong" scenario, with Vanguard, Schwab, and Fidelity as the major players, while independent unicorns like Betterment and Wealthfront continue to thrive. In Europe, the market share remains relatively small, with key players categorized into pan-European super platforms, market consolidators, and regional champions. China's robo-advisory market is expected to exceed $2 billion by 2028 and $4 billion by 2030, contributing to the development of passive investment strategies and long-term capital market participation [2][15][21][25][30]. - The business model of robo-advisors is evolving towards platformization and ecosystem integration, with revenue models shifting from single asset management fees to layered charging and technology empowerment. Robo-advisors have expanded from B2C to B2B and ecosystem models, exemplified by Ant Wealth's scenario collaboration for traffic conversion. Revenue diversification includes pure digital models relying on AUM management fees, tiered subscription models offering premium services, B2B tool empowerment models generating profits through technology output, and ecosystem platform models depending on product distribution commissions. This evolution highlights the industry's transition from scale expansion to value extraction [2][35][39]. - The core competitive advantages of leading robo-advisors include comprehensive strength, digital experience, and user-friendliness for beginners. Platforms with strong comprehensive capabilities often excel in long-term performance and service quality, while the best digital planning platforms possess robust personal asset aggregation tools that create automated financial management loops. User-friendly platforms may excel in brand trust or community ecosystem development. In the competitive landscape, Betterment and Wealthfront not only survive but thrive, embodying the pure fintech spirit by creating value through technological innovation and exceptional user experience [2][39][50]. - The development trend of robo-advisors is characterized by a philosophical debate between "active" and "passive" investment strategies. Analyzing the portfolio data of various robo-advisors reveals a shift in the industry towards this philosophical contention, categorized into MPT believers (Vanguard & Betterment), potential active managers (SoFi & Axos), and tech-driven alpha harvesters (Wealthfront) [2][11]. - Looking ahead, the industry is poised for significant restructuring and a new journey. By 2025, the robo-advisory sector will have transitioned from rapid growth to a phase of integration and iteration. Three major trends are expected to continue: industry consolidation, a shift from scale to sustainable profitability, and AI reshaping robo-advisory services. The complete withdrawal of bank-affiliated robo-advisors reflects ongoing industry consolidation, as the mismatch between customer acquisition costs and lifetime value necessitates substantial new scale to cover technology and compliance costs. Independent platforms are now focusing on sustainable profitability rather than blind scale expansion, as exemplified by Robinhood's acquisition of AI financial planning company Pluto and the launch of its own robo-advisory service, which aims to provide genuinely personalized financial consulting through large language models [2][15][30].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquor industry is currently facing supply-demand imbalances, with companies reducing growth expectations and releasing channel pressures. The white liquor index has dropped by 12% since the beginning of 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 33% [1][11] - The report highlights that the overall market demand for white liquor has shown slight recovery, but actual demand remains weak, with mainstream product prices in a downward trend. Companies like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu are reducing growth expectations, leading to significant declines in Q3 performance [1][22] - The report suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a configuration phase, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai improving their price-volume relationship and showcasing dividend asset attributes, with a projected dividend yield of 4% in 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report anticipates that supply-side optimization and channel clearing will occur, with a focus on quality company configurations. The industry is expected to see gradual recovery in demand, particularly during the Spring Festival sales period [2][29] - The report notes that channel inventory has decreased since Q3 2025, and companies are focusing on maintaining dynamic profits for distributors. Leading companies are gradually relaxing channel policies, indicating a stabilization trend in product prices post-holiday [2][42] - The competitive landscape is shifting from price differentiation to brand and organizational capabilities, with companies that can establish pricing power in specific regions or demographics likely to emerge from the adjustment cycle first [2][29] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest that the white liquor sector is now in a configuration zone, with a focus on brands that can navigate through cycles, such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to see valuation improvements as market liquidity increases [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that have established advantages in pricing and regional market share during the adjustment phase, such as Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor [3][4] - The report also highlights companies with strong shareholder returns and cash flow safety margins, such as Wuliangye, as potential investment opportunities [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7] Core Insights - The company has announced the production commencement of the Weizhou 11-4 oilfield adjustment and surrounding area development project, with a peak production capacity of 16,900 barrels per day expected by 2026 [4][8] - The West Jiang oilfield group 24 area development project is also set to commence production, with a peak production capacity of 18,000 barrels per day anticipated by 2026 [4][9] - A significant discovery of a billion-ton oilfield, Qinhuangdao 29-6, has been made in the Bohai Sea, which is expected to solidify the resource base for increased production [5][10] - The Bohai oilfield is projected to exceed an annual production equivalent of 40 million tons by 2025, contributing significantly to national energy security [6][11] - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 126.3 billion, 129.7 billion, and 135 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan, and PE ratios of 10.6, 10.3, and 9.9x [6][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Project Developments - The Weizhou 11-4 oilfield project will utilize existing facilities and is expected to reach a peak production of 16,900 barrels per day by 2026, with 35 wells planned [4][8] - The West Jiang oilfield group 24 area project will also leverage existing infrastructure, aiming for a peak production of 18,000 barrels per day by 2026, featuring innovative technology for continuous production [4][9] Resource Discoveries - The Qinhuangdao 29-6 oilfield discovery in the Bohai Sea has confirmed geological reserves exceeding 100 million tons of oil equivalent, showcasing the exploration potential in the area [5][10] Production and Financial Forecasts - The Bohai oilfield's annual production is expected to surpass 40 million tons by 2025, marking it as a crucial asset for national energy security [6][11] - The company projects steady growth in net profits and earnings per share over the next few years, maintaining a favorable valuation outlook [6][11]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月25日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-24 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3940.94 | 13486.41 | 4634.05 | 14415.35 | 3911.33 | 1352.12 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.28 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 0.90 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7739.28 | 11063.39 | 4063.75 | 3992.53 | 5025.69 | 510.88 | 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 策略快评:国信资配体系概览-低利率时代资产配置攻略 行业与公司 电子行业周报：电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力 农业行业快评:牧业大周期更新点评-重视牧业大周期反转，肉奶联动有 望打开成长空间 滔搏(06110.HK) 海外公司快评:三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加 深幅度 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月24日 2025年12月25日 国信煤炭观点：1）本次交易有利于增厚公司业绩。交易后公司 2024 年扣除非经常性损益后的基本每股收 益将提升至 3.15 元/股，增厚 6.10%。2025 年 1-7 月扣除非经常性损益后的基本每股收益将提升至 1.54 元/股，增厚 4.40%。此外根据业绩承诺，承诺的部分业绩在 2026-2028 年的合计为 29.6 亿元/45.5 亿元 /66.4 亿元，2027-2028 年增速分别为 54%、46%，为上市公司提供增长动能。2）本次交易巩固公司龙头地 位。本次交易后公司煤炭储量增加 97.7%，煤炭产量将提升至 5.12 亿吨，在全国原煤产量中占比约 10.8%， 进一步巩固行业龙头地位，同时增强产业链协同能力。公司是全球领先的以煤为基的综合能源企业，产运 销七板块业务协同，业绩稳定性强，股息回报丰厚，维持"优于大市"评级。。 评论： 巩固公司行业龙头地位，提升公司资产质量 巩固煤炭行业龙头地位。通过本次交易，中国神华的煤炭保有资源量将提升至 684.9 亿吨，增加 64.72%； 煤炭可采储量将提升至 345 亿吨，增加 97 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月24日 ——医药生物行业2025年12月投资策略 推荐关注CXO板块 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 医药生物 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：陈曦炳 0755-81982939 chenxibing@guosen.com.cn S0980521120001 证券分析师：马千里 010-88005445 maqianli@guosen.com.cn S0980521070001 证券分析师：张超 0755-81982940 zhangchao4@guosen.com.cn S0980522080001 证券分析师：彭思宇 0755-81982723 pengsiyu@guosen.com.cn S0980521060003 证券分析师：陈益凌 021-60933167 chenyiling@guosen.com.cn S0980519010002 证券分析师：凌珑 021-60375401 linglong@guosen.com.cn S0980525070003 证券分析师：肖婧舒 0755-81982826 xiaojingshu@guosen.com.cn S0 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月24日 金融工程日报 沪指震荡攀升录得六连阳，商业航天概念再度爆发 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251224 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 2000 指数 表现较好，板块指数中科创 100 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指 数表现较好。国防军工、电子、建材、轻工制造、计算机行业表现较好，农 林牧渔、煤炭、食品饮料、银行、家电行业表现较差。毫米波、玻璃纤维、 卫星互联网、商业航天、MLCC 等概念表现较好，钨矿、黄金精选、动物保健 精选、乳业、猪瘟疫苗等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251224 收盘时有 86 只股票涨停，有 6 只股票跌停。昨日涨停 股票今日收盘收益为 2.54%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-1.12%。今日封 板率 75%，较前日提升 6%，连板率 28%，较前日提升 2%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251223 两融余额为 25316 亿元，其中融资余额 25146 亿元，融券余额 170 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 11.3%。 折溢价：20251223 当日 ETF 溢价较多 ...

========= - The report tracks the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, noting the number of companies at different stages of the dividend process[1][13] - The dividend yield of stocks with announced dividend plans is highest in the coal, banking, and steel industries[2][14] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices as of December 24, 2025, are provided, with the SSE 50 having the highest realized yield at 2.70%[3][16] - The annualized premium and discount rates for the main contracts of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures as of December 24, 2025, are tracked, with IM having the highest annualized discount rate at -8.67%[4][12] - The methodology for calculating index dividend points is briefly reviewed, including the use of constituent stock weights, dividend amounts, and total market value[5][41] - The process for estimating constituent stock weights, including adjustments for stock price changes and the use of daily closing weights from the China Securities Index Company, is detailed[6][45][46] - The dynamic prediction method for net profit based on historical profit distribution is explained, including the classification of companies into stable and unstable profit distribution categories[7][47][50] - The prediction of dividend payout ratios using historical data and the linear extrapolation method for predicting ex-dividend dates are described[8][51][55] - The accuracy of the index dividend point estimation model is analyzed, showing higher accuracy for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices compared to the CSI 500 index[9][57][61] - The report includes charts showing the historical premium and discount rates of the main contracts for IH, IF, IC, and IM futures from 2020 to 2025[10][17][18][22] - The historical percentile positions of the basis for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts are provided, indicating the relative premium levels of these contracts[11][27][29][35] =========