Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Maximized Factor Exposure Portfolio (MFE) **Model Construction Idea**: The MFE portfolio is designed to test the effectiveness of single factors under real-world constraints, such as industry exposure, style exposure, stock weight limits, and turnover rate. This approach ensures that factors deemed "effective" can genuinely contribute to return prediction in the final portfolio[40][41]. **Model Construction Process**: The MFE portfolio is constructed using the following optimization model: $ \begin{array}{ll} max & f^{T} w \\ s.t. & s_{l} \leq X(w-w_{b}) \leq s_{h} \\ & h_{l} \leq H(w-w_{b}) \leq h_{h} \\ & w_{l} \leq w-w_{b} \leq w_{h} \\ & b_{l} \leq B_{b}w \leq b_{h} \\ & \mathbf{0} \leq w \leq l \\ & \mathbf{1}^{T} w = 1 \end{array} $ - **Objective Function**: Maximize single-factor exposure, where \( f \) represents factor values, and \( f^{T}w \) is the weighted exposure of the portfolio to the factor. \( w \) is the stock weight vector to be optimized. - **Constraints**: 1. **Style Exposure**: \( X \) is the factor exposure matrix for stocks, \( w_b \) is the benchmark weight vector, and \( s_l, s_h \) are the lower and upper bounds for style factor exposure[41]. 2. **Industry Exposure**: \( H \) is the industry exposure matrix, where \( H_{ij} = 1 \) if stock \( i \) belongs to industry \( j \), otherwise \( H_{ij} = 0 \). \( h_l, h_h \) are the lower and upper bounds for industry deviation[41]. 3. **Stock Deviation**: \( w_l, w_h \) are the lower and upper bounds for individual stock deviations from the benchmark[41]. 4. **Constituent Weight**: \( B_b \) is a 0-1 vector indicating whether a stock is a benchmark constituent. \( b_l, b_h \) are the lower and upper bounds for constituent weights[41]. 5. **No Short Selling**: Ensures non-negative weights and limits individual stock weights to \( l \)[41]. 6. **Full Investment**: Ensures the portfolio is fully invested with \( \mathbf{1}^{T}w = 1 \)[42]. - **Implementation**: At the end of each month, MFE portfolios are constructed for each factor under the defined constraints. Historical returns are calculated during the backtest period, accounting for a 0.3% transaction cost on both sides[44]. **Model Evaluation**: The MFE portfolio effectively tests factor performance under realistic constraints, ensuring that selected factors contribute to return prediction in practical applications[40][41]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the deviation of actual quarterly net profit from expected profit, standardized by the standard deviation of expected profit. It captures earnings surprises[17]. **Factor Construction Process**: $ SUE = \frac{\text{Actual Quarterly Net Profit} - \text{Expected Quarterly Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Expected Quarterly Net Profit}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: SUE is a widely used factor for capturing earnings surprises and has shown effectiveness in predicting stock returns[17]. - **Factor Name**: DELTAROE **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the change in return on equity (ROE) compared to the same quarter of the previous year, reflecting profitability improvement[17]. **Factor Construction Process**: $ DELTAROE = \text{Quarterly ROE} - \text{ROE of the Same Quarter Last Year} $ **Factor Evaluation**: DELTAROE is effective in identifying companies with improving profitability, which can lead to positive stock performance[17]. - **Factor Name**: Non-Liquidity Shock **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the average absolute daily return over the past 20 trading days, divided by the average trading volume, capturing liquidity risk[17]. **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Non-Liquidity Shock} = \frac{\text{Average Absolute Daily Return (20 Days)}}{\text{Average Trading Volume (20 Days)}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is useful for identifying stocks with higher liquidity risks, which may impact their returns[17]. Factor Backtest Results - **Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE)**: - **CSI 300 Universe**: Weekly return: 0.43%, monthly return: 2.55%, YTD return: 12.65%, historical annualized return: 4.22%[19]. - **CSI 500 Universe**: Weekly return: 0.07%, monthly return: 1.02%, YTD return: 7.47%, historical annualized return: 5.50%[21]. - **CSI 1000 Universe**: Weekly return: -0.36%, monthly return: 1.55%, YTD return: 20.90%, historical annualized return: 6.47%[23]. - **CSI A500 Universe**: Weekly return: -0.07%, monthly return: 1.17%, YTD return: 11.28%, historical annualized return: 4.55%[25]. - **DELTAROE**: - **CSI 300 Universe**: Weekly return: 0.33%, monthly return: 2.78%, YTD return: 18.51%, historical annualized return: 4.52%[19]. - **CSI 500 Universe**: Weekly return: -0.58%, monthly return: -0.75%, YTD return: 8.13%, historical annualized return: 7.56%[21]. - **CSI 1000 Universe**: Weekly return: -0.56%, monthly return: 1.36%, YTD return: 12.58%, historical annualized return: 8.77%[23]. - **CSI A500 Universe**: Weekly return: 0.01%, monthly return: 2.94%, YTD return: 20.42%, historical annualized return: 4.48%[25]. - **Non-Liquidity Shock**: - **CSI 300 Universe**: Weekly return: -0.06%, monthly return: -0.29%, YTD return: -1.78%, historical annualized return: 0.40%[19]. - **CSI 500 Universe**: Weekly return: -0.35%, monthly return: 0.79%, YTD return: -2.82%, historical annualized return: 0.18%[21]. - **CSI 1000 Universe**: Weekly return: 0.47%, monthly return: -1.66%, YTD return: 5.34%, historical annualized return: 2.23%[23]. - **CSI A500 Universe**: Weekly return: 0.13%, monthly return: -0.34%, YTD return: -3.95%, historical annualized return: 1.50%[25].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月03日 港股投资周报 年度收官，港股精选组合本年度上涨 53.23% 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益-2.49%，相对恒生指数超额收益-1.76%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 53.23%，相对恒生指数超额收益 25.46%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 行业指数方面，本周能源业行业收益最高，累计收益 2.21%；医疗保健业行 业收益最低，累计收益-3.24%。 概念板块方面，本周卫星导航概念板块收益最高，累计收益 11.42%；富士 康概念板块收益最低，累计收益-6.29%。 南向资金监控 南向资金整体方面，本周港股通累计净流出 38 亿港元，近一个月以来港股 通累计净流入 229 亿港元，今年以来港股通累计净流入 14048 亿港元，总 体来看近期南向资金呈现出整体流入的走势。 本周港股通资金中，中芯国际、招商银行和香港交易所流入金额最多，中国 移动、腾讯控股和中国联通流出金额最多。 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，现代牧业等股 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry's investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bullish on the equity market during the "Spring Rally". With the expected strengthening of underlying stocks and seasonal effects, there is a slight room for convertible bond valuations to increase. When selecting bonds, focus on the performance elasticity of the underlying stocks. For near - maturity convertible bonds, consider participating in the underlying stocks [27]. - In the stock market, in December 2025, the risk appetite was high. Looking ahead, the RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and with the end of the year - end ranking assessment of financial institutions, the "Spring Rally" is expected to gradually kick off. In January, if the market adjusts during the intensive performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips and focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - In the convertible bond market, in December 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index reached a new high since July 2015. Although the share of convertible bond ETFs continued to decline, the market premium rate increased. In the future, due to seasonal effects, some institutional investors may gradually increase their positions in January, and convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement [27]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 2025 December Convertible Bond Market Review - **Stock and Bond Market Review**: In December, the equity market fluctuated upwards, and the bond market generally fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose for nearly 10 consecutive trading days in the middle and late - December, closing at 3963.68 on December 26, with a monthly increase of 1.27%. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.838% on December 26, up 0.10bp from the beginning of the month, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.223%, up 3.32bp from the beginning of the month [4][8]. - **Convertible Bond Market Review**: The convertible bond market generally rose following the equity market. The premium rates of convertible bonds in all parity ranges increased, but convertible bond ETFs continued to face outflow pressure. Five convertible bonds announced downward revisions, one more than the previous month, and 10 convertible bonds announced forced redemptions, two less than the previous month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 493.2 on December 26, up 2.31% [5][8]. - **Industry Performance**: In the Shenwan industry classification, sectors such as national defense and military industry (+12.25%), communication (+10.55%), and non - bank finance (+8.27%) performed well, while sectors such as media (-4.77%), banks (-3.68%), and coal (-3.62%) declined [8]. 3.2 2026 January Convertible Bond Allocation Strategy - **Stock Market Outlook**: The RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and the "Spring Rally" is expected to start. In January, if the market adjusts during the performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips. Focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - **Convertible Bond Outlook**: Due to seasonal effects, some institutions may increase their positions in January. Convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement. When selecting bonds, relative - return funds should focus on high - probability sectors with a high - beta underlying stocks, and absolute - return funds should focus on high - odds sectors [27][28]. - **Bond Selection Suggestions**: For relative - return funds, focus on sectors such as lithium - battery materials, semiconductor equipment and materials, power semiconductors, high - quality auto parts, anti - involution industries, and securities. For absolute - return funds, focus on industry leaders with low valuations, sectors such as pig farming, power, and water supply, and convertible bond debt - to - equity conversion [28]. 3.3 2026 January "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" Portfolio | Convertible Bond Code | Convertible Bond Name | Underlying Stock Name | Industry | Balance (Billion Yuan) | Convertible Bond Price (Yuan) | Convertible Bond Parity (Yuan) | Conversion Premium Rate (%) | Rating | Recommendation Reason | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 113043.SH | Caitong Convertible Bond | Caitong Securities | Securities II | 37.99 | 133.52 | 109.71 | 21.70 | AAA | The securities sector will see a double - hit of valuation and profit in a bull market [30]. | | 123254.SZ | EVE Convertible Bond | EVE Energy | Battery | 49.98 | 167.64 | 134.65 | 24.51 | AA+ | The demand for energy storage is strong, and the shipment volume in the third quarter increased significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [30]. | | 113695.SH | Huachen Convertible Bond | Jiangsu Huachen | Power Grid Equipment | 4.60 | 160.16 | 122.10 | 31.17 | A+ | The company's new production capacity is put into operation just as the demand for energy storage is growing rapidly [30]. | | 113634.SH | Proya Convertible Bond | Proya | Cosmetics | 7.51 | 125.13 | 70.36 | 77.83 | AA | As a domestic beauty leader, its brand and product strength are outstanding, and its valuation at a historical low is expected to be restored [30]. | | 113616.SH | Will Semiconductor Convertible Bond | Will Semiconductor | Semiconductor | 24.32 | 124.07 | 78.35 | 58.36 | AA+ | The company is accelerating its introduction into intelligent driving and emerging markets and has launched new mobile phone products with strong competitiveness [30]. | | 118040.SH | Hongwei Convertible Bond | Hongwei Technology | Semiconductor | 4.30 | 149.72 | 116.17 | 28.88 | A | Power semiconductors benefit from the growth of power supply and energy storage demand [30]. | | 113674.SH | Huashe Convertible Bond | Huashe Group | Engineering Consulting Service II | 4.00 | 129.29 | 89.47 | 44.51 | AA | As a leader in infrastructure design, its main business is stabilizing, and intelligent design and low - altitude economy provide growth points [30]. | | 123222.SZ | Bojun Convertible Bond | Bojun Technology | Auto Parts | 2.44 | 224.63 | 194.72 | 15.36 | A+ | The growth of customer sales and the increase in ASP per vehicle drive up revenue and profit [30]. | | 113666.SH | Aima Convertible Bond | Aima Technology | Motorcycle and Others | 19.99 | 125.11 | 79.63 | 57.12 | AA | The new national standard may promote the market share of the two - wheeled vehicle leader [30]. | | 123247.SZ | Wankai Convertible Bond | Wankai New Materials | Plastics | 19.64 | 172.30 | 150.18 | 14.73 | AA | Under the "anti - involution" of bottle chips, the processing fee is expected to stabilize, and the company is entering the rPET blue - ocean market [30]. |

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive intelligence industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved two L3 autonomous driving vehicle models, marking a significant step towards commercial application in China [15]. - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is expected to receive full approval in China by early 2026 [16]. - XPeng Motors has obtained a road testing license for L3 autonomous driving in Guangzhou, indicating progress in the sector [18]. - WeRide's Robotaxi service has successfully launched in over 10 cities globally, showcasing the commercial viability of autonomous driving technology [20]. - Xidi Intelligent Driving has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first public company focused on commercial vehicle intelligent driving [22]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The report highlights significant developments in the L3 autonomous driving sector, including approvals and testing licenses for various companies [15][18][19]. - The report notes the increasing penetration of high-resolution cameras and advanced chips in passenger vehicles, with 800 million pixel cameras reaching a penetration rate of 49.7% by October 2025, up 31% year-on-year [2]. - The market for lidar technology is also expanding, with a penetration rate of 14.3% for passenger vehicles by October 2025, reflecting a 7.9% increase year-on-year [2]. Intelligent Driving - The penetration rate of passenger vehicles equipped with L2 and above functions reached 33% by October 2025, a 19% increase year-on-year [3]. - The report emphasizes the growth in sensor technology, with front-view cameras and radar systems seeing significant adoption [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as XPeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely for complete vehicles, while suggesting L4 companies like Pony.ai and WeRide for autonomous driving technology [3]. - For components, it recommends companies like SUTENG, Hesai Technology, and Horizon Robotics for data acquisition, transmission, processing, and application [3].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the historical trend of "stronger getting stronger" in the U.S. stock market, emphasizing that leading technology companies represent the capital mapping of the era's productivity [1][13][22] - The current market is experiencing unprecedented "oligopolization," with the top 1% of U.S. companies accounting for 47.5% of total market capitalization, indicating a significant concentration of value among leading firms [2][21] - The report identifies that while technology bubbles are difficult to avoid, they often lay the groundwork for future innovations, with the current AI wave in a critical commercialization validation phase [3][25][28] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 Index is presented as an optimal tool for investing in core technology assets in the A-share market, characterized by high elasticity, concentration, and growth potential [4][30] - The report indicates that the ChiNext 50 Index has shown strong return elasticity, outperforming other indices during growth phases, and has a high concentration in strategic emerging industries [4][31][39] - The underlying companies within the ChiNext 50 Index are noted for their high R&D investment and excellent profitability, providing solid support for long-term growth [4][32][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive intelligence industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The automotive intelligence sector is witnessing significant advancements, particularly in L3 autonomous driving technology, with multiple companies receiving regulatory approvals for their products [15][19]. - The penetration rates for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and various sensor technologies are on the rise, indicating a growing market for intelligent vehicles [3][2]. - Key companies in the sector, such as Xpeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, and WeRide, are highlighted for their potential growth and investment opportunities [5][3]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved two L3 autonomous driving vehicle models, marking a significant step towards commercialization [15]. - Xpeng Motors has obtained a road testing license for L3 autonomous driving in Guangzhou, while BYD has completed extensive road validation for L3 technology [18][17]. - WeRide's Robotaxi service has expanded to over 10 cities globally, showcasing the commercial viability of autonomous driving technology [20]. High-Frequency Core Data Updates - By October 2025, the penetration rate of 800 million pixel cameras in passenger vehicles is expected to reach 49.7%, a year-on-year increase of 31% [2]. - The market share of lidar technology in passenger vehicles is projected to rise to 14.3%, with significant contributions from companies like Huawei and Hesai Technology [2]. - The penetration rate of L2 and above intelligent driving functions in passenger vehicles has increased to 33%, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include Xpeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely for complete vehicles, while WeRide and Horizon Robotics are suggested for L4 technology [3]. - For components, companies like SUTENG and Hesai Technology are recommended for data acquisition, while Horizon Robotics and Black Sesame Intelligence are highlighted for data processing [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive intelligence industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved two L3 autonomous driving vehicle models, marking a significant step towards commercial application in China [15]. - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is expected to receive full approval in China by early 2026 [16]. - XPeng Motors has obtained a road testing license for L3 autonomous driving in Guangzhou, indicating progress in the industry [18]. - WeRide's Robotaxi service has successfully launched in over 10 cities globally, showcasing the commercial viability of autonomous driving technology [20]. - Xidi Intelligent Driving has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first public company focused on commercial vehicle intelligent driving [22]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The approval of L3 autonomous driving models by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [15]. - Tesla's FSD technology is on track for full approval in China [16]. - XPeng Motors and Xiaomi have both received L3 road testing licenses [18][19]. - WeRide's Robotaxi service has expanded to multiple cities worldwide [20]. - Xidi Intelligent Driving has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [22]. High-Frequency Core Data Updates - The penetration rate of 8 million pixel cameras in passenger vehicles is projected to reach 66.1% by October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7 percentage points [2]. - The market share of LiDAR in passenger vehicles is expected to rise to 14.3% by October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9 percentage points [2]. Intelligent Driving - The penetration rate of passenger vehicles with L2 and above functions has increased by 19 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 33% by October 2025 [3]. - The penetration rates for various sensors, including front-view cameras and LiDAR, have shown significant growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include XPeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely for complete vehicles, while L4 recommendations include Pony.ai and WeRide [3]. - For components, recommended companies include SUTENG for data acquisition and Horizon Robotics for data processing [3].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In December, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, marking the first return above the growth threshold since April[2][4] - The increase in the Manufacturing PMI ended a continuous contraction of 8 months, with the current level being 1.4 percentage points higher than the average of the past three years[7] - New orders index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8, while the production index rose by 1.7 percentage points, indicating a slight widening of the production-demand gap to 0.9 percentage points[8] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 percentage points to 50.2, significantly outperforming the average of 48.1 for the same period in previous years[10] - The construction sector saw a substantial rise, with the PMI increasing by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8, while the service sector PMI rose slightly to 49.7[10][11] - In December, 10 out of 20 non-manufacturing sectors were in a growth phase, an increase from the previous month, with notable performance in postal and telecommunications sectors[6][11] Economic Outlook - The economic data for December suggests a potential recovery compared to November, with Q4 growth expected to be no less than 4.5%[3] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and local debt arrangements is believed to have contributed to the recovery in production and construction activities[3] - The manufacturing output price index has risen for two consecutive months, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing competition pressures within industries[3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Petroleum (601857.SH) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][10] Core Views - The group has demonstrated confidence by increasing its stake, with plans to invest between RMB 2.8 billion and RMB 5.6 billion in A-shares and H-shares. As of December 29, 2025, the group has cumulatively increased its holdings by 30 million A-shares and 11.896 million H-shares [4][5][7] - The company has a sulfur production capacity exceeding 3.5 million tons per year, and rising sulfur prices are expected to enhance performance. The average price of solid and liquid sulfur has increased by over 150% year-on-year, reaching RMB 3,750/ton and RMB 3,800/ton respectively [5][8] - The closure of overseas refineries, combined with domestic capacity control, positions the company as a leader in refining, ethylene, and aromatics, likely benefiting from the current market dynamics [6][9] Summary by Sections Stake Increase - China Petroleum Group announced plans to increase its stake in the company, with a total investment of RMB 2.8 billion to RMB 5.6 billion in A-shares and H-shares. As of December 29, 2025, the group has increased its holdings by 30 million A-shares and 11.896 million H-shares [4][5][7] Sulfur Production and Pricing - The company has a sulfur production capacity of over 3.5 million tons per year. Due to supply constraints from Russian refineries and strong demand from the phosphate fertilizer and acid production sectors, sulfur prices are expected to rise, significantly boosting profits. Current average prices for solid and liquid sulfur are RMB 3,750/ton and RMB 3,800/ton, with year-on-year increases exceeding 150% [5][8] Refining and Petrochemical Market - The national refining capacity has surpassed 1 billion tons per year, but the utilization rate has dropped to around 70%, indicating structural overcapacity of over 300 million tons. The company is expected to benefit from the strict control of new refining projects and the adjustment of production schedules for ethylene and paraxylene, as outlined in the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" [6][9] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 167.4 billion, RMB 170.9 billion, and RMB 174 billion respectively. The diluted EPS is projected to be RMB 0.91, RMB 0.93, and RMB 0.95 for the same period, with current A-share PE ratios of 11.2, 11.0, and 10.8 times [10]