证券研究报告 | 2026年1月6日 脑机接口专题报告—— 技术突破与商业化共振，关注脑机接口未来产业 行业研究 · 深度报告 医药生物 · 医疗器械 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：陈曦炳 0755-81982939 chenxibing@guosen.com.cn S0980521120001 证券分析师：彭思宇 0755-81982723 pengsiyu@guosen.com.cn S0980521060003 证券分析师：张超 0755-81982940 zhangchao4@guosen.com.cn S0980522080001 证券分析师：凌珑 021-60375401 linglong@guosen.com.cn S0980525070003 联系人：贾瑞祥 021-60875137 jiaruixiang@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 n 脑机接口已进入"技术突破向商业业化跃迁"的关键节点，锚定 "政策+技术+场景"三重主线。当前行业受益于十五五规划重点布局、 医保赋码与医疗 ...

Group 1: Internet Industry and AI - The report highlights the rapid development of AI models, with OpenAI leading the acceleration in 2023, benefiting Microsoft through exclusive partnerships, resulting in significant valuation increases [11][12] - In 2024, the market is expected to underestimate the progress of AI models, shifting focus towards reasoning capabilities, with companies like Meta leveraging their social ecosystem for potential growth [11][12] - By 2025, the gap between AI models and OpenAI is expected to narrow, with Google catching up due to its ecosystem advantages, while the demand for model inference is anticipated to surge [11][12][13] Group 2: Mechanical Industry and AI Infrastructure - SoftBank completed a $40 billion investment in OpenAI, indicating strong capital flow into AI infrastructure, which is expected to drive demand in related industries [17][18] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the gas turbine and liquid cooling sectors, with companies like 博盈特焊 positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI data centers [18][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, with companies like 蓝箭航天 preparing for IPOs, reflecting the industry's growth trajectory [17][19] Group 3: Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai is actively pursuing market-oriented reforms to address supply-demand mismatches, with initiatives aimed at enhancing product structure and pricing strategies [23] - The company anticipates stable performance during the Spring Festival sales period, with a projected revenue growth of 5.3% for 2025, supported by improved distributor profitability [23] - Long-term, the market-oriented reforms are expected to strengthen consumer engagement and maintain the company's competitive edge in production and brand value [23] Group 4: 博盈特焊 (Boyin Welding) - 博盈特焊 is recognized as a leading enterprise in overlay welding equipment, with a focus on expanding overseas markets and new business lines [24][25] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for heat recovery steam generators (HRSG) and oil and gas composite pipes, with significant growth expected in these sectors [24][25][26] - The report forecasts a cumulative demand for HRSG in overseas markets to reach approximately 500-800 billion yuan over the next 3-5 years, driven by the AI industry's growth and the gas turbine sector's upcycle [25][26]

证券研究报告 | 2026年1月5日 超长债周报 TL 崩盘式下跌再创新低 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周财政工作会议提到扩大财政支出盘子，12 月制造业 PMI 回升 0.9 至 50.1，4 月以来首次重返荣枯线，长期限品种收益率上行， 超长债再度暴跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度变化不大，交投非 常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 31 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 40BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 11 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经济总量"稳中求进"的重要性次 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry report is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - MiniMax is a global large model company that has served over 200 countries and regions, with more than 200 million individual users and over 100,000 enterprise clients. The company's overseas revenue accounts for 73%, with significant contributions from Singapore and the United States [2][4] - The company has a strong focus on AI applications, particularly in video and audio, positioning itself in the first tier globally. MiniMax has launched the first MoE (Mixture of Experts) large model in China and is prioritizing multimodal integration in its strategy [2][3] - MiniMax's revenue has seen significant growth, with a 175% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, driven primarily by its AI video and open platform products [2][20] Summary by Sections Company Overview - MiniMax was established at the end of 2021 and has rapidly expanded its services globally, leveraging technology innovation, efficient operations, and a global strategy [6][14] - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including AI video generation (Hailuo AI), AI companionship (Talkie), and an open platform for API services, which contribute significantly to its revenue [15][20] Financial Performance - In 2024, MiniMax's revenue was $30.52 million, and in the first nine months of 2025, it reached $53.44 million, marking a 175% increase year-on-year. The revenue contributions from the open platform, Hailuo AI, and Talkie are 29%, 33%, and 35%, respectively [20] - The gross margin turned positive in 2024, and by the first nine months of 2025, it reached 23%, with a significant reduction in net losses from $244.24 million in 2024 to $186.28 million in 2025 [20][17] Market Position - MiniMax ranks as the fourth largest pure-play large model technology company globally, with a market share of 0.3% based on 2024 revenue. The company is the only Chinese startup in the top ten [42][46] - The global large model market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching $220 billion by 2025, indicating a strong potential for MiniMax's growth in this sector [41] Product and Technology - MiniMax's AI products, particularly in video and audio, are recognized for their high performance and cost-effectiveness. The Hailuo AI video generation platform is noted for its dual-mode capabilities, enhancing its application across various scenarios [56][57] - The Speech-02 model is highlighted for its low latency and high-quality audio generation, ranking second globally in the voice model category [59][60]

- No quantitative models or factors were mentioned in the provided content

Core Insights - The 2026 home appliance national subsidy policy is expected to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize retail sales, particularly in the white goods sector [2][3][20] - The policy continues to support the replacement of old appliances with new ones, focusing on six major categories, including refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price, capped at 1500 yuan per item [3][21][22] - The white goods production in January showed a positive trend, with a total output of 34.53 million units, representing a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by the national subsidy policy [4][24] Monthly Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - The national subsidy policy for 2026 aims to boost the replacement demand for home appliances, which is expected to support domestic sales [20][21] - January's white goods production saw a recovery, with air conditioner production increasing by 11% year-on-year, indicating a potential stabilization in demand [4][24] - In November, the domestic sales of major appliances faced pressure due to high base effects from the previous year, but exports of refrigerators and washing machines showed good growth [5][32] Key Data Tracking - In December, the home appliance sector experienced a relative return of -1.06% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.28% [34] - The prices of raw materials such as copper and aluminum increased by 13.5% and 4.8% respectively in December, while cold-rolled steel prices decreased by 3.2% [36] - The shipping index for major routes showed a mixed performance, with the West America route down by 6.4% and the Europe route up by 4.8% [45] Key Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights key companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL, and Gree Electric as strong performers in the white goods sector, with recommendations for investment based on their resilience and growth potential [14][15][54] - The home appliance industry is expected to face challenges due to high inflation in overseas markets and geopolitical tensions, but leading companies are adapting by enhancing local production capabilities [50][51]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [4] Core Views - The report indicates that oil prices experienced fluctuations and a downward trend in December 2025, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026, despite previous plans to increase output [1][16] - Demand for crude oil is expected to grow in 2025 and 2026, with estimates ranging from 83,000 to 130,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 86,000 to 138,000 barrels per day for 2026 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 [1][12] - The fluctuations in oil prices were attributed to various geopolitical events, including the attack on the Russian Friendship Pipeline and sanctions on Venezuela [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026, following a period of planned increases in late 2025 [1][16] - The report highlights that OPEC+ aims to maintain a balance in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026 [3][36] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies project an increase in crude oil demand for 2025 and 2026, with specific figures provided by OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] - The report notes that the refining industry in China is facing overcapacity issues, leading to stricter controls on new refining projects [3][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development, as key investment opportunities [4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月05日 制造成长周报（第 41 期） 优于大市 软银完成对 Open AI 的 400 亿美元投资，蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理 重点事件点评&重点关注：AI 基建、商业航天 事件 1-软银完成对 Open AI 的 400 亿美元投资：2025 年 12 月 30 日，软银 集团已于上周完成对 OpenAI 的最后一笔注资，金额约在 220 亿至 225 亿美 元之间，已完成对 OpenAI 的 400 亿美元投资承诺。 事件 2-蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理：2025 年 12 月 31 日，蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理： 拟募资 75 亿，需实现可复用火箭发射载荷成功入轨。 AI 基建点评：软银完成对 Open AI 的投资，xAI 收购第三座建筑，训练算力 将接近 GW，随着 AI 相关投资持续加码，AI 基建需求旺盛，相关产业链将继 续同步扩张受益。我们持续看好 AI 基建相关产业链，重点关注燃气轮机及 液冷方向。燃气轮机作为海外数据中心主用电源与备用电源将深度受益 AI 数据中心供电需求，GEV 超预期上修燃机订单与扩产也表明行业是超 长景气大周期。建议重点关注 AI 数据中 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is a leading manufacturer of anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding equipment, actively expanding into overseas markets and new business areas, particularly in HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generators) and oil and gas composite pipes, which are expected to drive growth [1][3] - The company has a projected revenue and net profit CAGR of 13.94% and 2.07% from 2018 to 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in overseas revenue share from 11% in 2021 to 55% in 2024 [1][29] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcycle in the HRSG market driven by the demand for gas turbines and AI data centers, with an estimated overseas HRSG demand of approximately 50-80 billion yuan over the next 3-5 years [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2007, specializes in anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding equipment, with applications in energy, environmental protection, and other industrial sectors [14] - It has a strong customer base, including major companies like GE and Hitachi, and is expanding its international presence in markets such as the UAE, the US, and Europe [14][19] Financial Performance - The company experienced a decline in domestic demand, leading to a decrease in revenue from 5.75 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.60 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit is expected to drop from 1.21 billion yuan in 2022 to 0.69 billion yuan in 2024 [25][29] - The overseas revenue share is projected to rise significantly, with a CAGR of 55.72% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards international markets [29] Business Segments - The HRSG segment is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for gas turbines, with the company investing in production capacity in Vietnam to meet North American market needs [2][3] - The oil and gas composite pipe business is also being developed, targeting the growing demand in the Middle East for deep-sea oil and gas extraction [3][19] Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 0.53 billion yuan, 1.79 billion yuan, and 3.46 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 132, 39, and 20 [3][8] - The reasonable stock valuation range is set between 67.50 and 74.25 yuan, indicating potential upside from the current closing price of 52.28 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company is fully promoting market-oriented transformation to address supply-demand matching issues. Short-term, the product structure and pricing of Moutai liquor are becoming more market-oriented, which is expected to show resilient performance in demand during the Spring Festival. The wholesale price is anticipated to stabilize and recover year-on-year, strengthening the support for valuation [3][8] - The company is expected to achieve stable performance through flexible policies and adjustments across multiple channels and products. The recent reforms are expected to improve the profitability of distributors, leading to a sequential improvement in channel profits [3][8] - In the medium to long term, the market-oriented reforms will help the company directly cultivate consumers. Its production, craftsmanship, and brand value remain industry-leading, ensuring continued brand valuation premium and investor returns even as perpetual growth rates converge [3][8] Summary by Sections Market-Oriented Transformation - Guizhou Moutai is implementing comprehensive market-oriented reforms, emphasizing consumer-centric approaches and adjusting product, channel, pricing, and incentive strategies [2][3] Product Strategy - The company is optimizing its product structure and pricing system, aiming to create a pyramid product system with "Feitian + Boutique" as the two major products. The 2026 Moutai liquor output is expected to remain stable, with an increase in the output of regular and boutique products while reducing non-standard products [4] Channel Strategy - The company has established a diversified sales model with a "4+6" channel ecosystem, planning to adjust product distribution and sales models to better match market demand. This includes enhancing the profitability of distributors and integrating online and offline channels [5][7] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 183.3 billion, 184.3 billion, and 186.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +5.3%, +0.5%, and +1.0% respectively. The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is 90.45 billion, 90.50 billion, and 91.79 billion yuan, with growth rates of +4.9%, 0.0%, and +1.4% respectively [3][9]