1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The return variance of funds has widened, and convertible bond funds have outperformed active products. The scale of public funds' convertible bond holdings decreased by 2.6% to 30.83 billion yuan, less than the overall market scale decline of -7%. Most convertible bond funds achieved positive returns, and there was an obvious trend of funds flowing from passive to active products [1][13]. - In Q4 2025, funds mainly increased positions in bank, military, photovoltaic industry targets and semiconductor new - issue bonds, and reduced positions in battery convertible bonds. Convertible bond funds led active - type funds, and the performance variance of active equity - oriented funds was extremely large [2]. - Among the high - performing products, Fund A, which ranked first in returns, adopted a quantitative strategy with outstanding asset - switching ability. Fund B, which ranked second, had excellent bond - selection ability, heavily invested in securities and technology, and significantly outperformed the index during the rising stage [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Scale and Fund Type Distribution - The convertible bond holding scale of first - and second - tier bond funds and flexible allocation funds slightly increased, while that of partial - debt hybrid and convertible bond funds decreased. The total asset value of convertible bond funds decreased from 67.85 billion yuan at the end of Q3 to 65.459 billion yuan [12]. - In Q4 2025, affected by multiple factors, the market mostly oscillated until late December. The scale of the convertible bond market continued to shrink, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent. The convertible bond holding scale of public funds decreased by 830 million yuan to 30.83 billion yuan, with a decline of 2.6%, less than the overall market scale decline [13]. - The number of funds with a decreased convertible bond position in Q4 2025 was more than those with an increased position, and the ratio of adding - position funds to reducing - position funds was 0.74. The number of funds with a convertible bond position of more than 5% decreased significantly compared with Q2 and Q3 2025 [15][17]. - By fund type, first - tier bond funds, second - tier bond funds, convertible bond funds, partial - debt hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds were the main forces in convertible bond allocation. More first - tier bond funds began to allocate convertible bonds in Q4 2025, and the scale of second - tier bond funds expanded most significantly [20][25]. - In terms of the price of convertible bonds held by public funds in Q4 2025, the proportion of balanced convertible bonds slightly increased, the position of bank convertible bonds remained stable, and the proportion of high - priced convertible bonds slightly decreased [27]. 3.2 2025 Q4 All Types of Fund Return Statistics - In Q4 2025, convertible bond funds led active - type funds, and the performance variance of active equity - oriented funds was extremely large. The average quarterly returns of ordinary stock funds and partial - equity hybrid funds were - 1.59% and - 1.94% respectively, with performance variances of 6.72% and 7.5% respectively. The average quarterly return of convertible bond funds was 0.86% [2][43]. - Most convertible bond funds achieved positive returns, and the trend of funds flowing from passive to active products was obvious. The median return of 41 convertible bond funds (including convertible bond funds, Xingquan Convertible Bond, and two ETFs) in Q4 was + 1.09%, and the return of convertible bond ETFs was 1.45%. The median return of these 41 products in the past year was 1.21% [46]. - Among the high - performing products, Fund A, which ranked first in returns, adopted a quantitative strategy, with the proportion of convertible bonds in the fund's total assets increasing significantly in Q4. It had outstanding asset - switching ability. Fund B, which ranked second, had excellent bond - selection ability, heavily invested in securities and technology, and significantly outperformed the index during the rising stage [3][51][62].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 ended with a downward trend in fundamentals, but there are positive signals expected in early 2026 [3] - The cumulative decline in sales has widened, but the monthly decline has narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4] - The overall investment and sales data for 2025 shows significant declines, with total real estate development investment at 82,788 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The new construction area decreased by 20.4% to 58,770 million square meters, while the completion area fell by 19.8% to 42,984 million square meters [3] - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue at 83,937 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6% [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In 2025, the total sales revenue of commercial housing was 83,937 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 12.6%, which is an increase in the decline rate compared to the previous months [5] - The sales area for commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 8.7% [5] - In December alone, the sales revenue dropped by 23.6% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed compared to November [5] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in 2025 was 82,788 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with a significant drop in December of 35.8% [53] - The funds available to real estate companies were 93,117 billion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year, indicating a worsening funding situation due to poor sales [53] - The investment in construction decreased by 19.8%, while land acquisition costs fell by 13.7% [53] Market Outlook - The report suggests that while the real estate fundamentals have declined significantly in Q4 2025, there are signs of improvement expected towards the end of 2025 and early 2026 [4][104] - The probability of housing prices stabilizing has increased from "impossible" to "possible," with further improvements expected if there is no repeat of the "price for volume" strategy after the Spring Festival [104] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao and China Merchants Shekou, reflecting a more optimistic view on real estate stocks [104]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 ended with a downward trend in fundamentals, but there are positive signals expected in early 2026 [3] - The cumulative decline in sales has widened, but the monthly decline has narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4] - The overall investment environment is challenging, with significant declines in both real estate development investment and funds available to real estate companies [4][53] - Despite the downturn, there is an increasing probability that housing prices may stabilize, with a shift in sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook for real estate stocks [4][104] Summary by Sections Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. The area of new housing started was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, and the area of completed housing was 42,984 million square meters, down 19.8% [3] - New residential property sales amounted to 88,101 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.7%, with sales revenue of 83,937 billion yuan, down 12.6% [3] Market Trends - The decline in sales has been more pronounced cumulatively, but the monthly figures show a narrowing of the decline, suggesting a potential recovery [5] - The proportion of pre-sold housing has decreased, and the growth rate of unsold inventory has slowed down [4][6] - The average selling price of new residential properties in 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3% [37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a more optimistic stance towards real estate stocks, particularly recommending China Jinmao and China Merchants Shekou, as the market shows signs of potential recovery [4][104] - The probability of housing prices stabilizing has increased from "impossible" to "possible," with further improvements expected if the market does not repeat previous patterns of "price for volume" after the Spring Festival [4][104]

Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance has introduced seven structural policies since January 20, focusing on loans, risk compensation guarantees, and consumer subsidies, with a total investment of approximately 250 billion yuan[1] - These policies reflect a continuous optimization of fiscal expenditure structure, emphasizing a moderate expansion in total fiscal policy while enhancing quality and efficiency[1] Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal revenue is expected to continue recovering due to strengthened tax collection and the gradual reduction of certain tax incentives, with an estimated overall deficit expansion of about 700 billion yuan for the year[1] - By the end of 2025, fiscal deposits are projected to remain at historically high levels, allowing for some rollover of existing funds into the current year[1] Structural Adjustments - The ongoing zero-based budgeting reform is enhancing the flexibility of fiscal fund allocation, leading to improved efficiency in fund utilization and a continued trend of prioritizing social welfare in fiscal spending[1] - Specific policies include a loan interest subsidy for fixed asset investments, with an estimated subsidy scale of around 200 billion yuan, and a consumer loan subsidy expected to reach approximately 100 billion yuan[9][13] Social Welfare Initiatives - The elderly care subsidy policy is projected to benefit around 20 million elderly individuals, with an estimated total subsidy amounting to 1.92 trillion yuan, potentially stimulating approximately 4.3 trillion yuan in overall elderly care service consumption[18]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and momentum. It is based on the principle that stocks or indices closer to their recent highs tend to exhibit stronger momentum and potential for future gains[11][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value representing the percentage drop[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, aligning with prior research on the predictive power of stocks near their 52-week highs[11][19]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies stocks with stable price movements and consistent new highs, leveraging the idea that smoother price paths and sustained momentum yield better returns[27][29]. - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on the following criteria: 1. **Analyst Attention**: At least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past three months 2. **Relative Strength**: Top 20% in terms of 250-day price performance 3. **Price Stability**: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Measured by the ratio of price displacement to total price movement over the past 120 days - **Momentum Consistency**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days 4. **Trend Continuation**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past five days Stocks meeting these criteria are ranked, and the top 50 are selected[27][29]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus may yield stronger returns[27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite: 0.70% - Shenzhen Component: 0.00% - CSI 300: 1.84% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00% - CSI 2000: 0.00% - ChiNext Index: 1.15% - STAR 50 Index: 0.00%[12][13][34] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Jiangbolong, Shengda Resources, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical Sector: 23 stocks (e.g., Basic Chemicals) - Technology Sector: 18 stocks (e.g., Electronics)[30][35] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proximity of a stock's price to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is widely supported by academic research and practical applications, demonstrating strong predictive power for momentum strategies[11][19]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies the smoothness of a stock's price movement, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[27]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Price\ Path\ Smoothness = \frac{Price\ Displacement}{Total\ Price\ Movement} $ Where: - $ Price\ Displacement $ is the absolute change in price over 120 days - $ Total\ Price\ Movement $ is the sum of absolute daily price changes over 120 days[27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor highlights the importance of consistent price movements, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus may yield stronger returns[27]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite: 0.70% - Shenzhen Component: 0.00% - CSI 300: 1.84% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00% - CSI 2000: 0.00% - ChiNext Index: 1.15% - STAR 50 Index: 0.00%[12][13][34] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Jiangbolong, Shengda Resources, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical Sector: 23 stocks (e.g., Basic Chemicals) - Technology Sector: 18 stocks (e.g., Electronics)[30][35]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been validated by various studies[11][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price falls from the high, the distance is a positive value representing the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks or indices with strong momentum and highlights market leaders, aligning with the principles of momentum investing[11][19]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model refines the momentum strategy by focusing on stocks with smooth price paths and consistent new highs, leveraging the "smooth momentum" effect[27]. - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on the following criteria: - Analyst Attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative Strength: Top 20% in 250-day price performance - Price Stability: - Price path smoothness: Ratio of price displacement to total price movement - Consistency of new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend Continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks meeting these criteria are selected[27][29]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes stocks with stable momentum and consistent performance, which are less likely to experience sharp reversals, making it a robust enhancement to traditional momentum strategies[27][29]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 0.70% - Shenzhen Component Index: 0.00% - CSI 300: 1.84% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00% - CSI 2000: 0.00% - ChiNext Index: 1.15% - STAR 50 Index: 0.00%[12][13][34] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Jiangbolong, Shengda Resources, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical Sector: 23 stocks, with the highest concentration in basic chemicals - Technology Sector: 18 stocks, with the highest concentration in electronics[30][35] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of a stock's price to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is widely recognized for its ability to identify stocks with strong momentum and potential for continued outperformance[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies the stability of a stock's price movement, favoring stocks with smoother trajectories[27]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Price path smoothness is calculated as the ratio of price displacement to the total price movement over a given period[27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor enhances the momentum strategy by reducing exposure to volatile stocks, improving risk-adjusted returns[27]. 3. Factor Name: Consistency of New Highs - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the persistence of a stock's new high performance over time, emphasizing sustained momentum[27]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days is used as a proxy for consistency[27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor ensures that selected stocks exhibit reliable momentum, reducing the likelihood of short-term reversals[27]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 0.70% - Shenzhen Component Index: 0.00% - CSI 300: 1.84% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00% - CSI 2000: 0.00% - ChiNext Index: 1.15% - STAR 50 Index: 0.00%[12][13][34] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Jiangbolong, Shengda Resources, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical Sector: 23 stocks, with the highest concentration in basic chemicals - Technology Sector: 18 stocks, with the highest concentration in electronics[30][35] 3. Consistency of New Highs Factor - **Selected Stocks**: Same as the Price Path Smoothness Factor, as it is part of the composite selection criteria[30][35]

2026年01月22日 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 商业航天深度报告 火箭回收"黎明将至" ，商业航天"千帆竞发" 商业航天深度报告 火箭回收"黎明将至" ，商业航天"千 帆竞发" 行业研究 · 行业专题 商业航天 · 价值分析 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：李聪 licong3@guosen.com.cn S0980525080006 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 内容摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø "政策+技术+资本+市场"四重共振驱动商业航天蓬勃发展：1）政策顶层设计清晰，架构逐渐完善：商业航天连续两年被写入政府工 作报告、国家航天局设立商业航天司、科创板第9号指引出台、无线电创新院成立等一系列重大政策及措施的推出和落实，勾勒商业航 天的"上层建筑"；我国一次性申报卫星20万颗，展示国家发展商业航天的坚定意志。2）技术突破拐点在即：火箭端蓝箭航天等多家 公司竞速开展可回收火箭验证试验，可回收火箭技术突破指日可待；卫星端"政企"联合建设多个超级工厂，旨在突破卫星产能极限。 3）资本端热度高涨，市场化融资活跃：2025年商业航天融资总额再创新高 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 钾肥行业点评 全球氯化钾供需紧张，2026 年需求、价格有望超预期 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  石油石化 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 薛聪 | 010-88005107 | xuecong@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120001 | 事项： 近期，国内钾肥价格较年初已经上涨 50-100 元/吨，目前国产 60%白钾 3300 元/吨，边贸 62%白钾 3400 元 /吨，港口 62%白钾 3500 元/吨。 1）国内钾肥库存低位，看好春耕钾肥价格上行。根据百川盈孚数据，2025 国内氯化钾合计产量 582 万吨， 同比-38 万吨（yoy-6%）；截至 1 月 15 日，国内氯化钾港口库存 251 万吨，环比+3 万吨，同比-45 万吨， 且国储仍需 150 万吨补库需 ...

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-01-22 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4122.57 | 14327.04 | 4723.70 | 15645.58 | 4174.99 | 1541.63 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.13 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.40 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 12017.64 | 14899.68 | 6902.35 | 5337.35 | 6815.35 | 1144.71 | 【常规内容】 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 江苏金租(600901.SH) 财报点评:双轮锚定价值，稳健穿越周期 周大福(01929.HK) 公司快评:销售增长进一步加速，定价首饰占比提升 利好毛利率 苏农银行(603323.SH) 财报点评:收利润增速平稳，资产质量稳健 兴业银行(601166.SH) 财报点评:营收增速由负转正 立高食品(3 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月22日 寻找中国保险的 Alpha 系列之四 优于大市 从保单到数据：新能源车险的价值跃迁 产业周期看财险：我国新能源车险已步入"量价齐升"的黄金发展期。在"双 碳"目标的国家战略指引与延续性的购置税减免等政策激励下，我国新能源 汽车市场渗透率持续快速提升。2024 年，我国新能源汽车销量占总新车销量 的比例已高达 40.9%，零售渗透率逼近 50%，其销量增速显著超越传统燃油 车，这为车险保费增长提供了坚实的原生动力。与此同时，"高级驾驶辅助 系统（ADAS）"渗透率超过 50%以及"基于使用行为的保险（UBI）"等创 新模式的普及，正从技术层面重塑车险的风险管理与定价逻辑，为行业破解 成本困局提供了关键工具。 | 证券分析师：孔祥 | 证券分析师：王京灵 | | --- | --- | | 021-60375452 | 0755-22941150 | | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | | S0980523060004 | S0980525070007 | 新能源车险高增长背后是当前"高成本、高 ...