Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the continuous increase in wool prices since Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% in Q3 and a cumulative quarterly increase of 22.6% [2] - The demand for wool and cashmere materials in outdoor sports apparel is expected to grow, with a significant increase in sales and market penetration [3][4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth in the outdoor sports segment, with approximately 30% of its wool and cashmere products allocated to this category, significantly higher than the industry average [3][12] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve due to rising wool prices and a recovery in orders since September 2025, leading to a favorable "high price, low cost" scenario [3][15] - The report projects an increase in net profit for the company, estimating RMB 460 million, RMB 600 million, and RMB 650 million for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.1%, 31.4%, and 8.2% respectively [21][22] Summary by Relevant Sections Wool Price Trends - Wool prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with Q4 2025 prices expected to rise by 30.6% year-on-year and a quarterly increase of 6.2% [2][15] - The report notes fluctuations in prices, with a decrease in early October followed by a recovery later in the month [2] Market Potential - The penetration of wool and cashmere materials in outdoor sports apparel has increased, with sales growth exceeding 30% year-on-year in most quarters since Q4 2021 [3][4] - The market share of wool and cashmere products in outdoor sports apparel has risen from 0.34% in Q4 2021 to 1.04% in Q4 2025, indicating significant growth potential [3][4] Company Positioning - The company has a first-mover advantage in the outdoor sports segment, with a higher proportion of its wool and cashmere products dedicated to this market compared to industry averages [3][12] - The report emphasizes the company's ability to capture growth opportunities in the expanding outdoor sports apparel market [3][12] Financial Projections - The report revises the profit forecast for 2026-2027, with net profits expected to reach RMB 460 million, RMB 600 million, and RMB 650 million, reflecting a positive outlook based on rising wool prices and expanding demand [21][22] - The target price for the company's stock has been adjusted to RMB 9.9-10.7, corresponding to a PE ratio of 12-13x for 2026 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market and the US stock market is "Underperform" [1][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - US economic data shows increasing divergence, with employment data dragging down interest - rate cut expectations, while the service sector is strong and the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Trump's order for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in MBS increases fiscal dominance risk and may steepen the yield curve [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000, and the annual increase was the weakest since the pandemic. After the release of the weak employment report, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in January almost disappeared, and the first rate cut is expected to be postponed to June, with an annual rate cut of about 50 basis points [1] - The December ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, contracting for the tenth consecutive month, while the ISM services PMI rose to 54.4, the highest in nearly a year [2] - Trump's order for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in MBS may accelerate the steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, and long - term interest rates are under pressure [2] 3.2 Exchange Rate - The report may analyze the trends of non - US currencies in the past year and recent changes, as well as the relationship between the US dollar index and other factors such as the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the RMB index [53][59][61] 3.3 Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), as well as the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds [67][69] 3.4 Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took one downgrading action on a Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuer. On December 30, 2025, Moody's downgraded Vanke's rating from Caa2 to Ca [75][76] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a "short - duration core + steepening satellite" configuration. Focus on 3 - 5 - year investment - grade bonds for stable coupon income, long the 2s10s spread to capture curve - steepening opportunities, increase TIPS allocation to hedge against service - sector inflation stickiness, and strictly control exposure to US Treasuries over 10 years [3] - In the next two weeks, focus on December CPI data and public statements by Fed officials [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Underperform" for the US stock market and the US dollar bond market [1][4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - US economic data shows increasing divergence, with employment data dragging down interest rate cut expectations, and the risk of fiscal dominance is rising. The Trump administration's MBS purchase plan by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will intensify the risk of fiscal dominance and the re - evaluation pressure of term premium, and may promote the steepening of the yield curve [1][2][3] Summary of Each Section US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, with the annual increase being the weakest since the pandemic. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.5% to 4.4%, and wage growth was 3.8% year - on - year, but the labor force participation rate declined. After the release of the employment report, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in January almost disappeared, and the first rate cut is expected to be postponed to June, with an annual rate cut of about 50 basis points [1] - The US December manufacturing PMI continued to contract, dropping to 47.9, while the service industry recovered, with the ISM services PMI rising to 54.4, the highest in nearly a year [2] Exchange Rate - There is no specific text - based summary information provided, but there are figures showing the trends of non - US currencies in the past year, recent changes in non - US currencies, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, etc. [53][59][61] Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - There is no specific text - based summary information provided, but there are figures showing the returns of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), the yields and spreads of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, and returns in the past two weeks (by level and industry) [67][69][71] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took one downgrading action on the issuer of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds. On December 30, 2025, Moody's downgraded the rating of China Vanke Co., Ltd. from Caa2 to Ca [75][76] Investment Recommendations - Adopt a "short - duration core + steepening satellite" configuration. The core position focuses on 3 - 5 - year investment - grade bonds to obtain relatively stable coupon income; the satellite strategy is to go long on the 2s10s spread to capture the opportunity of curve steepening; increase the allocation ratio of TIPS to hedge the inflation stickiness of the service industry, and strictly control the exposure to US bonds over 10 years to avoid the risk of rising long - term interest rates caused by fiscal expansion [3] - In the next two weeks, focus on the December CPI data and public speeches of Fed officials [3]

Group 1: A-Share Market - The estimated net inflow of northbound funds for the week from January 5 to January 9, 2026, is 9.6 billion yuan, compared to a net outflow of 3.1 billion yuan in the previous week [10] - The estimated net inflow of flexible foreign capital during the same week is 3.2 billion yuan, up from 1.7 billion yuan the previous week [10] - The top active stocks in the northbound trading include Ningde Times with a total transaction amount of 22.5 billion yuan, accounting for 20% of the stock's weekly trading volume [10] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - A total of 16.7 billion Hong Kong dollars flowed into the Hong Kong stock market during the week from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, with flexible foreign capital inflowing 36.5 billion Hong Kong dollars [14] - Stable foreign capital saw an outflow of 21.6 billion Hong Kong dollars, while local funds from Hong Kong or mainland China experienced an outflow of 12.7 billion Hong Kong dollars [14] - The sectors attracting foreign capital include software services, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical biology, with significant inflows into ETFs, banks, and non-bank financials [14] Group 3: Asia-Pacific Market - In the Asia-Pacific market, there was a net outflow of 2 billion yen from the Japanese stock market for the week ending December 29, 2025, following a larger outflow of 37.5 billion yen the previous week [17] - In December, overseas institutional investors withdrew 2.52 billion dollars from the Indian stock market, compared to an outflow of 430 million dollars the previous month [17] Group 4: US and European Markets - In November, global mutual funds saw a net inflow of 9.2 billion dollars into the US equity market, up from 3.8 billion dollars in the previous month [20] - European equity markets also experienced net inflows, with the UK, Germany, and France receiving 0.55 billion dollars, 1.17 billion dollars, and 1.4 billion dollars respectively [20]

- The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3][4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 2026年01月12日 基金周报 开年首只"日光基"诞生，睿远基金时隔近 6 年再发三年持有期基金 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数全线上涨，科创 50、中证 500、 中证 1000 指数收益靠前，收益分别为 9.80%、7.92%、7.03%，沪深 300、上证综指、创业板指指数收益靠后，收益分别为 2.79%、3.82%、 3.89%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所上升。行业方面，上周 国防军工、传媒、有色金属收益靠前，收益分别为 14.56%、13.55%、 8.66%，银行、交通运输、石油石化收益靠后，收益分别为-1.88%、 -0.03%、0.17%。 1 月 7 日，华泰柏瑞基金发布公告，旗下沪深 300ETF（510300）的场 内扩位简称，从"沪深 300ETF"正式更新为"沪深 300ETF 华泰柏瑞"，该 变更将于 1 月 9 日生效。 1 月 7 日，睿远基金旗下睿远研选均衡三年持有混合发起式基金发行。 这是时隔近 6 年，睿远基金再度推出三年持有期基金新品。 开放式公募基金表现。上周主动权益、灵 ...

Macro and Strategy - The global commodity market has entered a structural uptrend since the end of 2025, with industrial and precious metals leading the rise, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a shift in global economic structure [7][8] - The demand for computing power is driving a divergence in commodity prices, with significant increases in copper and oil ratios indicating a new economic growth model centered around "computing power + electricity" [7][8] - The macroeconomic indicators show a recovery in China's economy, with December's manufacturing PMI returning above the expansion threshold, indicating effective policy support [10][11] Industry and Company - The AIDC power equipment sector is expected to benefit from the surge in data center construction, with major tech companies accelerating their investments in AI data centers [26][27] - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing rapid industrialization, with significant improvements in profitability expected for lithium battery companies in 2026 due to ongoing demand for energy storage [26][30] - The global energy storage demand is projected to reach 404 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 38%, driven by market demand and supportive government policies [28] - Wind power equipment manufacturers are expected to see improved profitability in 2026, with domestic installations projected to grow by 10%-20% [28] - The electric grid equipment sector is anticipated to experience increased demand, particularly with the acceleration of ultra-high voltage approvals and the introduction of new smart meter standards [29]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares have successfully broken through 4100 points, while H-shares show relative weakness[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.79% from January 3 to January 10, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.41% during the same period[13] - The AH premium index remains in the range of 115-120 points, indicating a preference for high-quality H-shares over A-shares[12] Group 2: Market Structure and Liquidity - A-shares are driven by "new economy" sectors such as semiconductor equipment and aerospace, benefiting from policy support and improved liquidity[1] - H-shares are still dominated by traditional sectors, leading to concerns over excessive competition among internet companies like Alibaba and Meituan[1] - Increased leverage by individual investors and concentrated allocation by long-term funds in A-shares have supported trading volumes, especially amid the appreciation of the RMB[1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.60% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 1.30% year-on-year[5] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.02%, and exports rose by 5.90% year-on-year[5] Group 4: Inventory and Fund Behavior - Recent oil inventory stands at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest gold ETF scale is 3,422 million ounces, a decrease of 20,000 ounces from the previous week[28]

2. 福达控股集团有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券项目获交易所通过，拟发行 规模为 12 亿元，正股为福达股份（603166.SH），主承销商为中德证券，交易所更新日期为 2026 年 1 月 5 日； 风险提示 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20260105-20260109） 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获得的最新的可交换私募债（私募 EB）项目情况，对私募可交换债项目做基本 要素跟踪，私募发行 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨，股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 13.50%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元，总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多，为 36.48 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 135.24 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净 申购最多，为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看， 酒、新能车 ETF 的估 ...