Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is experiencing a downward trend, exacerbated by high base effects from the previous year, leading to a significant increase in year-on-year sales decline [4][5] - There is a clear trend of "trading price for volume," making the outlook for housing prices less optimistic [4][20] - Both real estate development investment and funds available to real estate companies are accelerating their decline [4][31] - New construction remains at a low level, while completions, as a lagging indicator, are on a confirmed downward trend [4][50] - The fourth quarter is expected to face unprecedented pressure in the housing market due to high base effects, although the strong wave-like characteristics of the sector may present trading opportunities [4][63] Summary by Relevant Sections Real Estate Investment and Sales Data - From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment reached 73,563 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%. The area of new construction was 49,061 million square meters, down 19.8%, and the area of completed buildings was 34,861 million square meters, down 16.9% [3][31] - New residential sales area was 71,982 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 6.8%, while sales revenue was 69,017 billion yuan, down 9.6% [3][5] Sales Performance - In October 2025, the sales revenue of new residential properties saw a year-on-year decline of 24.3%, with the sales area down 18.8% [5] - The sales figures for October 2025 were only 46% and 44% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019, indicating a historically low performance [5] Price Trends - The average selling price of new residential properties from January to October 2025 was 9,588 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [20] - In October 2025, the average price was 9,722 yuan per square meter, down 6.9% year-on-year [20] Investment and Funding Trends - Real estate development investment for January to October 2025 was 73,563 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7% [31] - Funds available to real estate companies totaled 78,853 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year [31] - In October 2025, the investment and funding figures were at 51% and 45% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019, respectively, marking historical lows [31][50] Construction Activity - New construction area from January to October 2025 was 49,061 million square meters, down 19.8% year-on-year [50] - The area of completed buildings was 34,861 million square meters, down 16.9% year-on-year [50]

Economic Performance - In October, China's industrial added value significantly dropped to 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index fell to 4.6%[1] - Fixed asset investment accelerated its decline to -11.0% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment showing the most notable decrease[1] - The overall economic growth structure is undergoing profound adjustments, moving away from reliance on scale expansion[1] Consumer Resilience - Despite a slight year-on-year decline in total retail sales of consumer goods, the consumption growth rate excluding automobiles actually rebounded[1] - Restaurant revenue growth accelerated significantly, with service retail sales climbing to 6.1% year-on-year, marking a new high for the year[1] - Consumer demand remains robust, playing a crucial role in combating deflation and driving price recovery[1] Policy Outlook - Future policies are expected to continue the approach of "braking old vehicles and accelerating new ones," focusing on suppressing inefficient production while expanding consumer demand[2] - Measures will include improving social security, stabilizing employment, and fostering new consumption scenarios to enhance residents' purchasing power and willingness to consume[2] Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in government spending from "investment in objects" to "investment in people," aiming to stimulate consumption and facilitate a positive economic cycle[1] - Infrastructure investment growth has significantly decreased, contrasting with the clear rise in service consumption growth[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [1] Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing sustained high demand, driven by advancements in AI and the development of intelligent computing centers [2][3] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are significantly increasing their capital expenditures (Capex) to enhance AI capabilities, with projections indicating a combined Capex of $361 billion from major overseas players by 2025, and over 360 billion yuan from domestic firms [2] - The emergence of silicon photonic modules is set to revolutionize optical communication, offering lower costs, reduced power consumption, and higher integration [4][67] Summary by Sections AI Data Center Interconnection Development Trends - The AI arms race has entered a new phase, with rapid iterations in intelligent computing center interconnection technologies [2][16] - The demand for AI capabilities is driving CSPs to invest heavily in their infrastructure, leading to increased Capex and a focus on self-developed ASIC chips [32] Development of Optical Modules/Silicon Photonic Modules - Silicon photonic modules are expected to capture a larger market share, growing from 34% in 2023 to 52% by 2029, driven by their advantages in cost and performance [55][67] - The market for silicon photonic modules is projected to reach $10.3 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 45% over the past five years [4] Cutting-edge Optical Communication Technologies - New technologies such as Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), Optical Circuit Switching (OCS), and Optical Input/Output (OIO) are anticipated to play significant roles in the future of optical communication [5][96] - The global market for OCS is expected to exceed $1.6 billion, while the DCI market could reach $28.4 billion by 2029 [5] Major CSPs and Their Developments - Google, AWS, and Meta are leading the development of self-researched ASIC chips, with significant advancements in their respective architectures [3][32] - CSPs are increasingly focusing on high-density optical connections and innovative interconnection solutions to meet the growing demands of AI applications [21][106]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the securities industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The securities industry has shown high performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 421.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.57%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 169.29 billion yuan, up 62.48% year-on-year [1][13]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to a steady rise in the equity market, increased trading volumes, and a recovery in wealth management services [1][29]. - Financial investment assets have become the main expansion direction for securities companies, totaling 6,991.8 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, accounting for 47% of total assets [2][32]. Summary by Sections Revenue Structure - Investment income has increased its share, with brokerage income at 111.78 billion yuan, up 74.64%, and investment income at 187.04 billion yuan, up 43.86% [13][30]. - Total assets and net assets of listed securities firms reached 14.92 trillion yuan and 2.85 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.74% and 13.16% [19][20]. High Growth in Capital-Intensive Business - Self-operated business revenue reached 186.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%, with major contributors being CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy [30][31]. - The report highlights a significant increase in equity investment scale, with self-operated equity securities and derivatives reaching 8.475 trillion yuan, up 32.6% from the end of 2024 [34][35]. Brokerage Business - The brokerage business has benefited from active market trading, with all listed securities firms reporting positive growth in brokerage income [13][14]. - The average trading commission rate remains low, indicating potential for further revenue growth [16][30]. Investment Banking Business - The domestic equity financing scale has shown recovery, with IPOs continuing to rebound and underwriting activities improving [29][30]. - The report notes a 61.49% year-on-year increase in the total amount raised through initial public offerings [29]. Asset Management Growth - The asset management scale continues to grow, with a steady transition towards public fund management [22][23]. - The report indicates that the new asset management regulations are promoting the public fund transformation of securities firms [24][25].

Group 1: Economic Overview - "反内卷" is a key focus for the "十五五" period, expected to drive China's economic narrative in the coming year[1] - China's PPI has experienced negative growth for 36 consecutive months since October 2022, with the GDP deflator remaining below zero for nine consecutive quarters starting mid-2023[14] - The low inflation environment mirrors the supply-demand mismatch seen during the late 1990s, indicating structural economic challenges[2] Group 2: Short-term Policy Measures - Short-term "反内卷" efforts will rely on policy interventions across industrial and macroeconomic dimensions, with a focus on administrative measures to address severe mismatches in certain sectors[3] - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain high at 3.8%-4.0% to support economic stability, with a total deficit expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan[52] - PPI is anticipated to recover from negative growth, with a target of achieving positive growth by mid-2026, supported by favorable base effects[67] Group 3: Long-term Reform Strategies - Long-term "反内卷" success hinges on structural reforms, including market-oriented reforms to eliminate local protectionism and enhance resource allocation efficiency[72] - The urbanization of approximately 250 million agricultural migrants is seen as a potential driver for increased domestic demand and income growth[74] - The government aims to transition from infrastructure-focused fiscal policies to those prioritizing social welfare and human capital investment[53]

Group 1: Economic Transition Insights - China is in a critical phase of economic transition, where the shift from old to new growth drivers is essential for overcoming growth bottlenecks and achieving high-quality development[1] - By 2027, emerging industries are expected to surpass traditional industries in terms of value added, with a projected value of approximately CNY 17.5 trillion for old industries and CNY 14.3 trillion for new industries in 2024[2] - The financial restructuring accompanying industrial transformation has been effective, with the non-performing loan ratio of major banks remaining stable compared to the previous transition period (1998-2002) when it exceeded 25%[2] Group 2: Employment and Structural Changes - Emerging industries have limited direct employment absorption capacity, with the construction industry employing between 12 to 20 million people, significantly outpacing the 6 million in high-tech manufacturing sectors[2] - The service sector's employment share is expected to structurally increase, which may take a longer time to address structural employment issues[2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is characterized by a gradual shift in employment dynamics, requiring the widespread adoption of new business models and scenarios[2] Group 3: Industry Development Trends - Key emerging sectors such as semiconductors, software development, and maritime equipment are identified as future pillars of the economy, transitioning from "technological breakthroughs" to "commercial realization" phases[3] - The analysis of export comparative advantage indicates significant potential in sectors like optical instruments and chip manufacturing, which are crucial for national strategic goals[3] - The industrial lifecycle analysis shows that industries like software development and gaming are in a growth phase, with capital expenditure focused on technological upgrades and revenue growth[3]

Economic Growth Framework - The core task for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to achieve a per capita GDP of approximately $29,000 by 2035, positioning China among "medium-developed countries" [2] - The bottom-line target for annual real GDP growth is set at 4.2%, while the consensus target suggests a compound GDP growth rate of around 4.4% over the next decade [2] - The expected economic growth rate for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to be between 4.5% and 4.9%, with a likely internal control target of 4.8% to 5.0% for the upcoming year [2] New Growth Paradigm - The new growth paradigm emphasizes "dynamic iteration + moderate inflation + currency appreciation" as the driving forces for economic growth [1] - This paradigm shift is expected to fundamentally alter asset return characteristics and risk premiums, leading to a systematic outperformance of equity assets over fixed-income assets [1] - The transition in asset allocation is anticipated to move from a real estate-dominated structure to one centered around equity assets [1] Market Implications - The anticipated recovery in corporate profits, particularly in upstream cyclical industries, is expected to create structural opportunities in the stock market [3] - The bond market is likely to experience a rebound in interest rates as inflation indicators improve, with the yield curve expected to steepen [3] - The shift in asset attractiveness is projected to favor equities over real estate and fixed income, driven by improved earnings and valuation dynamics [3] Risks - Potential risks include volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in domestic policy execution [4]

- The report tracks the performance of Guosen Financial Engineering's index enhancement portfolios, which are constructed based on multi-factor stock selection models targeting benchmarks such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 indices[10][11][13] - The construction process of the index enhancement portfolios includes three main components: return prediction, risk control, and portfolio optimization[11] - The report monitors the performance of single-factor Maximized Factor Exposure (MFE) portfolios across different stock selection spaces, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI A500 indices, and public fund heavy positions index[10][14][39] - The MFE portfolio construction process involves optimizing the portfolio to maximize single-factor exposure while controlling for constraints such as style exposure, industry exposure, individual stock weight deviation, and turnover rate[39][40][41] - The optimization model for MFE portfolios is defined as follows: $\begin{array}{ll}max&f^{T}\ w\\ s.t.&s_{l}\leq X(w-w_{b})\leq s_{h}\\ &h_{l}\leq H(w-w_{b})\leq h_{h}\\ &w_{l}\leq w-w_{b}\leq w_{h}\\ &b_{l}\leq B_{b}w\leq b_{h}\\ &\mathbf{0}\leq w\leq l\\ &\mathbf{1}^{T}\ w=1\end{array}$ where `f` represents factor values, `w` is the stock weight vector, and constraints include style factor deviation, industry deviation, individual stock weight deviation, and component stock weight limits[39][40] - The report highlights the weekly, monthly, and yearly performance of various factors in different stock selection spaces, such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI A500 indices, and public fund heavy positions index[17][19][21][23][25] - Factors such as three-month volatility, one-month volatility, and three-month turnover performed well in the CSI 300 space recently, while factors like one-year momentum and single-quarter profit growth rate performed poorly[17][18] - In the CSI 500 space, factors like one-month turnover and BP showed strong performance recently, while one-year momentum and standardized unexpected earnings performed poorly[19][20] - In the CSI 1000 space, factors such as illiquidity shock and expected net profit growth performed well recently, while standardized unexpected revenue and one-year momentum showed weak performance[21][22] - In the CSI A500 space, factors like three-month volatility and one-month turnover performed well recently, while one-year momentum and standardized unexpected earnings performed poorly[23][24] - In the public fund heavy positions index space, factors such as one-month volatility and three-month turnover performed well recently, while standardized unexpected revenue and one-year momentum showed weak performance[25][26] - The report tracks the performance of public fund index enhancement products, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 index enhancement funds, with detailed statistics on excess returns across different time periods[27][28][31][33][35][38]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月15日 主动量化策略周报 微盘红利领航，成长稳健组合年内相对股基指数超额 22.76% 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪： 本周，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益-1.80%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益-1.09%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 25.03%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益-6.58%。今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 58.46%分位点（2028/3469）。 本周，超预期精选组合绝对收益-2.36%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 -1.64%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益 41.40%，相对偏股混合型基金指 数超额收益 9.79%。今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名 27.15% 分位点（942/3469）。 以研报标题超预期与分析师全线上调净利润为条件筛选超预期事件股票池， 接着对超预期股票池进行基本面和技术面两个维度的精选，挑选出同时具备 基本面支撑和技术面共振的超预期股票，构建超预期精选股票组合。 券商金股业绩增强组合： 以券商金股股票池为选股空间和约束基准，采用组合优化的方式控制组合与 券商金股 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月15日 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 优于大市 2025Q3 点评：日百品类和平台业务快速增长，京东外卖亏损 环比小幅减少 本季度收入增长亮眼：本季度公司实现营业收入 2991 亿元，同比+15%， 分拆看，1）本季度京东零售收入 2506 亿元，同比+11%，收入强劲增长 主要受益于日百和市场营销收入加速增长，我们测算自营收入同比 11%， 其中带电品类收入增速 5%，商超品类收入增速 19%；自营增速环比 Q2 23% 的增速显著降低，主要由于国补高基数影响，且 Q3 多地国补额度用完 对带电品类销售带动减弱。本季度平台活跃用户数以及购物频次均实现 40%以上增长，年度活跃用户在 10 月突破 7 亿；2）京东物流收入 521 亿元，同比+15%；3）新业务收入同比+214%，主要由于京东外卖快速增 长导致。 公司利润：non-GAAP 净利润 58 亿元，non-GAAP 净利率 1.9%，与去年同 期相比下降 3.2pct。其中经调 EBITDA 利润率从 5.8%降至 0.8%。分业务 看，零售经营利润率从去年同期 5.2%提升至 5.9%，我们推测主要由于 ...