证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 多因子选股周报 超额全线回暖，中证 A500 增强组合年内超额 3.50% 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工指数增强组合表现跟踪 因子表现监控 以沪深 300 指数为选股空间。最近一周，三个月波动、非流动性冲击、BP 等因子表现较好，而标准化预期外盈利、单季超预期幅度、一年动量等因子 表现较差。 以中证 500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，SPTTM、单季 SP、单季超预期幅 度等因子表现较好，而三个月反转、高管薪酬、非流动性冲击等因子表现较 差。 以中证 1000 指数为选股空间。最近一周，标准化预期外收入、单季 EP、预 期 BP 等因子表现较好，而一个月波动、高管薪酬、三个月波动等因子表现 较差。 以中证 A500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，三个月换手、三个月波动、一个 月换手等因子表现较好，而一年动量、一个月反转、标准化预期外盈利等因 子表现较差。 以公募重仓指数为选股空间。最近一周，BP、预期 BP、单季 SP 等因子表 现较好，而一年动量、高管薪酬、单季 ROE 等因子表现较差。 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 目前，公募基金沪深 300 指数增强产品共有 7 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 主动量化策略周报 微盘股领涨，四大主动量化组合本周均战胜股基指数 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪： 本周，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 1.95%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 0.30%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 9.49%，相对偏股混 合型基金指数超额收益 1.35%。今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股 基中排名 35.77%分位点（1331/3721）。 本周，超预期精选组合绝对收益 4.65%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 3.00%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益 13.46%，相对偏股混合型基金指 数超额收益 5.33%。今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名 14.97% 分位点（557/3721）。 本周，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 2.96%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 1.31%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 10.04%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益 1.91%。今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 31.77%分位点（1182/3721）。 本周，成长稳健组合绝对收益 5. ...

规模稳步扩张。期末资产总额 13.07 万亿元，贷款总额 7.26 万亿元，较年 初分别增长 7.56%和 5.37%；负债总额 11.79 万亿元，存款总额 9.84 万亿元， 较年初分别增长了 7.98%和 8.13%。 资产质量稳健，拨备覆盖率有所下降但依然处在高位。期末不良率 0.94%， 较 9 月末持平，较年初下降 1bp。期末拨备覆盖率 392%，较 9 月末下降约 14 个百分点，较年初下降约 20 个百分点，但依然处在高位。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 招商银行（600036.SH）2025 年业绩快报点评 优于大市 业绩底部明确，估值具备吸引力 营收增速和净利润增速都有所提升。2025 年全年实现营收 3375 亿元，同比 增长 0.01%，前三季度同比下降 0.5%。实现归母净利润 1502 亿元，同比增 长 1.2%，前三季度同比增长 0.5%。 营收微增，扭转了 2023-2024 年连续两年同比下降态势。公司 2023-2025 年 营收同比增速分别为-1.6%、-0.5%和 0.01%。营收增速微增核心来自于与净 利息收入增速转正，2023-2025 年净利息收入增 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 利尔化学（002258.SZ） 优于大市 2025 年业绩预计增长 122%，草铵膦涨价将使公司盈利修复 公司 2025 年度归母净利润预计增长 122.33%。利尔化学公布 2025 年度业绩 快报，全年公司预计实现营业总收入 90.08 亿元，同比增长 23.21%；实现营 业利润 7.22 亿元，同比增长 105.03%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 4.79 亿元，同比增长 122.33%；扣非后归母净利润 4.79 亿元，同比增长 138.83%。 部分产品价格及产销量增长，与大客户合作加深。2025 年，公司业绩增长主 要受益于部分产品需求增长、综合毛利率同比上涨以及降本增效取得成效。 具体表现为：1）氯代吡啶类除草剂价格上涨及销量提升，如 2025 年毒莠定 /绿草定价格上涨，海外需求提升，销量增长。2）公司加快在精草铵膦海外 的自主登记，2024 年公司已在 8 个国家完成了精草铵膦制剂的登记工作，当 前海外的精草铵膦渗透率较低，公司精草铵膦出口数量持续提升。3）与大 客户的合作加深，2024 年公司第一大客户的销售数量大幅增长，同时公司与 科迪华成 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 2026年01月24日 策略周报 长线外资流入，短线外资流出——1 月第 3 周全球外资周观察 核心结论：①北向资金：最近一周可能小幅净流出，其中灵活型外资可能小 幅净流入。②港股：稳定型外资流入 184 亿港元，灵活型外资流出 167 亿港 元，港股通流入 49 亿港元。③亚太市场：外资本周流入日本，12 月外资流 出印度。④美欧市场：11 月资金流入欧洲，流入美国。 风险提示：部分资金数据为估算值，与真实情况或有出入；模型存在误设和 失效风险。 核心观点 策略研究·策略周报 | 证券分析师：吴信坤 | 证券分析师：余培仪 | | --- | --- | | 021-61761046 | | | wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn | yupeiyi@guosen.com.cn | | S0980525120001 | S0980526010001 | | 基础数据 | | | 中小板/月涨跌幅(%) | 8883.33/9.51 | | 创业板/月涨跌幅(%) | 3349.50/4.51 | | AH 股价差指数 | 119.63 | | A 股总/流 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 公司 2025 年度归母净利润预计增长 122.33%。利尔化学公布 2025 年度业绩 快报，全年公司预计实现营业总收入 90.08 亿元，同比增长 23.21%；实现营 业利润 7.22 亿元，同比增长 105.03%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 4.79 亿元，同比增长 122.33%；扣非后归母净利润 4.79 亿元，同比增长 138.83%。 部分产品价格及产销量增长，与大客户合作加深。2025 年，公司业绩增长主 要受益于部分产品需求增长、综合毛利率同比上涨以及降本增效取得成效。 具体表现为：1）氯代吡啶类除草剂价格上涨及销量提升，如 2025 年毒莠定 /绿草定价格上涨，海外需求提升，销量增长。2）公司加快在精草铵膦海外 的自主登记，2024 年公司已在 8 个国家完成了精草铵膦制剂的登记工作，当 前海外的精草铵膦渗透率较低，公司精草铵膦出口数量持续提升。3）与大 客户的合作加深，2024 年公司第一大客户的销售数量大幅增长，同时公司与 科迪华成立的合资公司广安利华相关项目建成投运，开始贡献利润。4）降 本增效持续推进，公司通过优化工艺和人员结构，有 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 港股投资周报 多只资源股创一年新高，港股精选组合本周超额恒指 1.51% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 1.15%，相对恒生指数超额收益 1.51%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 7.39%，相对恒生指数超额收益 3.02%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，三一国际等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为科技、消费、制 造和大金融板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 概念板块方面，本周智能电视指数概念板块收益最高，累计收益 22.51%； GEO 指数概念板块收益最低，累计收益-9.36%。 南向资金监控 南向资金整体方面，本周港股通累计净流入 235 亿港元，近一个月以来港股 通累计净流入 613 亿港元，今年以来港股通累计净流入 663 亿港元，总体来 看近期南向资金呈现出整体流入的走势。 本周港股通资金中，阿里巴巴-W、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express maintains significant competitive advantages, including leading market share, superior network operational capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO's strategy of "pursuing both volume and quality" is expected to enhance its market share as the demand structure in the express delivery industry optimizes due to price increases and e-commerce taxation [3] - Long-term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is anticipated to develop a diversified service system, leading to improved profitability [3] Summary by Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits [1] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the industry through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network services in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery fee model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Company Highlights - ZTO Express's competitive advantages remain strong, with expectations for continued market share growth and an optimized competitive landscape [3] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% [3][5] - The current stock price is considered to be at a low point, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating significant long-term investment value [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express has a significant competitive advantage, primarily due to its leading market share, superior network management capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO is expected to maintain its "quantity and quality" strategy, which, along with price increases and reduced low-cost packages, will optimize the demand structure in the express delivery industry, leading to a continuous increase in market share [3] - In the long term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is likely to develop a diversified service system, enhancing its profitability [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits due to policies aimed at high-quality development [1][52] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the competitive landscape through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network buses in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects ZTO Express's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, indicating that the stock is still at a low valuation level [3][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the performance of medium- and long-term pure bond funds has shown signs of recovery, aided by a negative duration strategy for risk hedging [1][50] - As of the end of Q4 2025, there are 2,112 medium- and long-term pure bond funds, accounting for 15.5% of the total fund market, with a significant decrease in issuance and scale compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year [9][50] - The total assets and net assets of these funds are reported at 69,425 billion and 58,042 billion respectively, reflecting a decline of 2,038 billion and 1,633 billion from the previous quarter [10][50] Group 2 - The average leverage ratio for medium- and long-term pure bond funds at the end of Q4 2025 is 1.20, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter but down 0.02 from the end of the previous year [14][50] - The average net value growth rate for these funds in Q4 2025 is 0.56%, showing a significant recovery compared to the previous quarter, with 92.1% of the funds reporting positive growth [19][50] Group 3 - In terms of asset allocation, bond assets constitute the highest proportion at 97.1%, with a slight increase from the previous quarter, while bank deposits have increased to 1.2% [24][50] - The main types of bonds held by these funds include interest rate bonds, financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds), and corporate bonds, which account for 47.0%, 21.4%, and 28.1% of total bond assets respectively [25][50] Group 4 - As of Q4 2025, 39 medium- and long-term pure bond funds hold government bond futures, with a majority focusing on hedging and duration management [37][51] - The negative duration strategy is employed by certain funds, with the 平安惠嘉纯债 fund having an estimated duration of -1.96 years and 嘉实稳华纯债 fund at -0.74 years [48][49][51]