Core Conclusions - The report identifies five micro-drivers for the upward trend of A-shares in 2026: 1) Long-term logic and short-term breakthroughs resonate, accelerating the growth of new productive forces 2) Capital market reforms are advancing deeply under the new "National Nine Articles" 3) Policies for stable growth and anti-involution are working together to improve profitability 4) The trend of residents' risk appetite continues to warm, accelerating the influx of funds into the market 5) The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle continues, and the AI industry trend remains strong, supporting the risk appetite for A-shares [1][2][3][4] Group 1: New Productive Forces - The current macro background indicates that China is in a period of transition from old to new driving forces, with technological innovation leading the development of new productive forces, which is key to upgrading the industrial structure [1][12] - The concept of "new productive forces" was first proposed by President Xi in September 2023, emphasizing high-level technological self-reliance and innovation as a core strategy for industrial policy [12][14] - By 2026, new productive forces are expected to continue driving industrial transformation and upgrading, supported by policies, capital, and talent focusing on technological innovation [1][14] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The new "National Nine Articles" released in April 2024 focuses on establishing a sound regulatory system, cultivating long-term funds, and promoting financial services for the real economy, which will reshape the foundational systems and regulatory logic of the capital market [2][21] - The report anticipates that investment and financing reforms will deepen, enhancing the quality of listed companies and stabilizing investor confidence and expectations, thereby supporting a steady bull market for A-shares [2][22] - Policies will continue to strengthen delisting and dividend guidance, balancing financing needs with investor protection, and enhancing investor satisfaction [2][23] Group 3: Profit Improvement - The core driving force of the A-share market is expected to shift from valuation increases driven by confidence recovery and leveraged funds in 2025 to improvements in corporate profitability [3][30] - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently in the second phase of a bull market, with corporate profitability beginning to improve, supported by macro policies promoting mild recovery on the supply side [3][30] - It is projected that the overall net profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could reach 10%, as improvements in profitability gradually spread across various industries [3][30] Group 4: Influx of Resident Funds - Since 2025, the financing balance of A-shares has significantly increased, but signs of resident funds entering the market have not been prominent [3][35] - The report notes that there is a substantial amount of excess savings among residents, with a potential influx of over 50 trillion yuan into the market as risk appetite continues to warm [3][37] - The current asset allocation of residents shows a low allocation to equities, indicating significant room for growth in equity investments in the future [3][37] Group 5: Support for Market Risk Appetite - The report highlights that the current market sentiment is not overly heated, with the number of new accounts and the market's profit-making effect not yet reaching their peak [3][46] - The continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and the ongoing upward trend in the AI industry are expected to support the risk appetite for A-shares [3][47] - The report suggests that the historical average duration of bull markets in A-shares is around 26 months, indicating that there is still considerable room for growth in the current bull market [3][46]

Macro and Strategy - The US December CPI data shows overall CPI at 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%, indicating a stabilization in inflation [7] - China's December export growth was 6.6% year-on-year, with imports growing by 5.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of $114.14 billion [7] Industry and Company - The semiconductor industry is experiencing unexpected prosperity, with price increases across multiple segments and anticipated growth in AI glasses [3][7] - The chemical industry is facing challenges due to the cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, which may accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity [3][15] - The media sector is seeing a restructuring of traffic and content service ecosystems driven by AI applications, indicating a new growth cycle [3][19] - The mechanical industry is optimistic about growth opportunities in humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and commercial aerospace sectors [3][28] Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor sector has seen a 3.82% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, with electronic stocks rising by 7.74% [7] - AI-driven demand is pushing prices up in upstream electronic components, with significant shortages in storage and high-end PCB supply chains [7] - The CES 2026 showcased advancements in AR glasses, indicating a trend towards enhanced communication and computing capabilities in smart glasses [9] Chemical Industry Insights - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides is expected to squeeze profit margins for companies like grass ammonium glyphosate, potentially leading to price increases in the short term [15][16] - The pesticide formulation export value is projected to rise, as the market shifts towards higher-value products [16] Media Industry Insights - The media sector's performance in December lagged behind the market, with a 1.60% decline in the media index [17] - The number of game licenses issued in December reached a record high, indicating a robust pipeline for new game releases [17][19] - The AI application in media is expected to enhance overall sector valuations, with a focus on AI marketing and content creation [20] Mechanical Industry Insights - The mechanical industry index rose by 8.59% in December, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [25] - The sales of excavators in December increased by 19.2% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the construction sector [25] - The focus on humanoid robots and AI infrastructure is expected to drive long-term investment opportunities in the mechanical sector [28][34] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the semiconductor sector include companies like SMIC, Aojie Technology, and Demei Li [13] - In the media sector, companies such as Giant Network and Bilibili are highlighted for their growth potential [20] - The mechanical sector suggests focusing on companies involved in humanoid robots and AI infrastructure, such as Flywheel and Weichuan Technology [28][35]

Trade Performance - December exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, while imports grew by 5.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of $114.14 billion[2] - For the entire year, exports rose by 5.5%, and imports recorded no growth, leading to a total trade surplus of $1,189.99 billion, marking a historic high[4] Structural Changes - High-end manufacturing and key resource products drove export growth, with significant increases in automotive exports (up 71.7%), integrated circuits (up 47.7%), and rare earths (up 53.3%)[13] - Exports to emerging markets, particularly countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, accounted for 53% of total exports in December, mitigating weak demand from traditional markets like the U.S.[6] Import Dynamics - December imports reached $223.69 billion, reflecting a 5.7% year-on-year increase, driven by seasonal procurement of energy and raw materials[15] - Resource-based imports, including rare earths (up 102.0%) and copper ore (up 33.2%), indicated robust industrial production demand[16] Future Outlook - The external trade environment is expected to remain resilient, with geopolitical factors continuing to reshape trade structures and a focus on bilateral and regional cooperation[5] - Service exports and new trade forms are anticipated to become significant growth drivers in the future[20]

- The report introduces the dividend point estimation method for stock indices, emphasizing its importance in accurately calculating the premium or discount of stock index futures contracts. The method involves estimating dividend points based on constituent stock dividends, total market capitalization, stock weights, and index closing prices[48][49][51] - The calculation formula for dividend points is provided as: $$\text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Constituent Stock}}{\text{Total Market Capitalization of Constituent Stock}} \times \text{Stock Weight} \times \text{Index Closing Price}$$ This formula ensures that only stocks with ex-dividend dates between the current date and the futures contract expiration date are considered[48] - The report details the process of estimating constituent stock weights, transitioning from approximate monthly data to precise daily weights using data disclosed by the China Securities Index Company. The formula for weight estimation is: $$W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{i})}$$ Here, \(w_{n0}\) represents the weight of stock \(n\) at the last disclosed date, and \(r_{n}\) is the non-reinvested return of stock \(n\) during the period[52][53] - The report explains the dynamic prediction method for estimating net profits of constituent stocks. For companies with stable profit distributions, historical patterns are used, while for others, the previous year's profit is adopted. Dividends are calculated as: $$\text{Dividend Amount} = \text{Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio}$$ This approach ensures accurate dividend estimation for stocks without disclosed data[54][56] - Historical dividend payout ratios are used to predict current ratios, with adjustments for companies that have not paid dividends in recent years or have payout ratios exceeding 100%. The prediction process includes linear extrapolation based on historical intervals between dividend announcement and ex-dividend dates[57][60][63] - The report evaluates the accuracy of the dividend point estimation model, showing minimal errors for indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300 (around 5 points), while slightly larger errors (around 10 points) are observed for CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices. The model demonstrates strong predictive performance for stock index futures contracts[64][68] - Backtesting results for stock index futures contracts reveal varying annualized premium or discount rates across indices. For example, IH contracts show a premium of 1.27%, IF contracts a premium of 0.79%, IC contracts a discount of 0.94%, and IM contracts a discount of 4.48%[4][13][25]

- The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on market performance, sentiment, capital flows, ETF premiums/discounts, block trades, and institutional activity, without delving into quantitative investment models or factor analysis. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月14日 机械行业 2026 年 1 月投资策略 优于大市 看好人形机器人、AI 基建及商业航天板块的成长性机会 12 月行情回顾&重要数据跟踪：12 月机械行业（申万分类）指数上涨 8.59%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.31 个 pct，机械行业 TTM 市盈率/市净率约 为 39.31/3.18 倍，环比提升。12 月钢/铜/铝价格指数环比变动 -0.09%/+13.63%/+5.02%。 PMI（国家统计局 12 月 31 日数据）：12 月制造业 PMI 指数 50.10%，环 比上升 0.9 个百分点，4 月份以来首次升至扩张区间。同期高技术制造 业保持扩张态势，高技术制造业 PMI 为 52.50%，持续位于临界点以上， 相关行业保持稳定增长。 工程机械（中国工程机械工业协会 1 月 8 日数据）：2025 年 12 月销售 各类挖掘机 23095 台，同比增长 19.2%。其中国内销量 10331 台，同比 增长 10.9%；出口量 12764 台，同比增长 26.9%。 重点组合&1 月投资观点： 成长&前瞻方向组合：博盈特焊、飞荣达、汉钟精机、应流股份、万泽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [3] Core Insights - The media sector underperformed the market in December, with the Shenwan Media Index declining by 1.60%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 3.88 percentage points [4][23] - The report highlights a strong pipeline of new game approvals and the impact of AI applications on the industry, suggesting potential upward movement in the sector [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Market and Industry Review - In December, the media sector ranked 25th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification [4][23] - The current TTM-PE for the Shenwan Media Index is 45.8x, positioned at the 69.7th percentile over the past five years [23] 2. Gaming - A total of 144 domestic games and 3 imported games were approved in December, with a cumulative issuance of 1,772 game licenses in 2025, marking a 25.1% year-on-year increase [4][38] - The domestic gaming market is projected to generate revenues of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 7.7% year-on-year growth [39] - Mobile and client games are expected to achieve revenues of 257.1 billion yuan and 78.2 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.9% and 15.0% [46] 3. Film and Television - December's total box office reached 3.712 billion yuan, a 58.0% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by "Zootopia 2" [59] - The top-performing series in December included "The Big Businessman" with 754 million views, followed by "Old Uncle" and "Tang Dynasty's Strange Affairs" [75] 4. AI Applications - The GEO market is expected to reach $24 billion globally by 2026 and $100 billion by 2030, with domestic projections of 11.1 billion yuan in 2026 and 36.5 billion yuan by 2028 [6] - The report emphasizes the transformation of traffic and content service ecosystems due to AI applications, suggesting significant investment opportunities in marketing technology and content creation [6][7] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI-driven marketing opportunities and the performance of new game releases, highlighting companies such as Giant Network, Joyy, and Bilibili as key investment targets [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - In December 2025, the media sector (Shenwan Media Index) declined by 1.60%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.88 percentage points, ranking 25th among 31 industries [4][18][23]. - The current TTM-PE for the Shenwan Media Index is 45.8x, which is at the 69.7th percentile over the past five years, indicating a relatively high valuation [4][23][27]. - Notable stock performances in December included gains from Sanrenxing (30%), Baina Qiancheng (25%), and Guangxi Guangdian (19%), while ST Fanli and Zhejiang Wenlian saw declines of 20% and 19% respectively [4][28][29]. Group 2: Gaming Sector - In December 2025, a total of 144 domestic games and 3 imported games were approved, with a cumulative issuance of 1,772 game licenses in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [4][38]. - The Chinese gaming market is projected to generate revenues of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 7.7%, with mobile and client games expected to reach 257.1 billion and 78.2 billion yuan respectively, growing by 7.9% and 15.0% [4][39][46]. - The self-developed games' overseas revenue is expected to reach 20.5 billion USD in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [4][49]. Group 3: Film and Television Sector - The total box office in December 2025 reached 3.712 billion yuan, a significant increase of 58.0% year-on-year, primarily driven by the success of "Zootopia 2" [4][59]. - The top five films in December by box office included "Zootopia 2" (2.097 billion yuan), "Avatar 3" (774 million yuan), and "The Amazing Heist 3" (380 million yuan) [4][66]. - In the drama market, "The Big Businessman" led with 754 million views, followed by "Old Uncle" and "Tang Dynasty Mystery" with 667 million and 567 million views respectively [4][75]. Group 4: AI Applications - The global GEO market is expected to reach 24 billion USD by 2026 and 100 billion USD by 2030, with the domestic market projected to reach 11.1 billion yuan by 2026 [6]. - GEO is reshaping the flow of traffic and content service ecosystems, transitioning from "list links" to "direct answers," which compresses intermediary value and amplifies the value of content sources [6][7]. - The application of AI is anticipated to enhance the overall valuation of the sector, with a focus on gaming and publishing industries benefiting from strong new product cycles [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the commercial aerospace and AI infrastructure sectors, indicating strong long-term investment opportunities [2][3]. - The Chinese government has prioritized satellite frequency resource applications, with over 200,000 satellite applications submitted to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) [2][19]. - Meta has signed multiple nuclear power supply agreements to meet the energy demands of AI data centers, totaling 6 GW [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Commercial Aerospace - China applied for over 200,000 satellite frequency resources, with more than 190,000 from the newly established Radio Innovation Institute, emphasizing the strategic importance of satellite frequency resources [2][19]. - The report suggests focusing on core suppliers in the commercial aerospace sector, including companies like Guangdian Measurement, Yingliu Co., Shanghai Huguang, and others [2]. AI Infrastructure - Meta's collaboration with companies like Vistra, Oklo, and TerraPower for nuclear power supply indicates a robust demand for AI infrastructure, which will continue to drive energy needs [3][20]. - The report recommends focusing on the gas turbine and liquid cooling sectors, highlighting the importance of gas turbines as primary and backup power sources for data centers [3]. - Key companies in the gas turbine supply chain include Yingliu Co., Wanzhe Co., and others, while liquid cooling solutions are gaining traction as a trend in data centers [3]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, all rated as "Outperform," including: - Yingliu Co. (44.76 CNY, market cap 30.4 billion CNY, EPS 0.42 for 2024A) [12][28]. - Hengli Hydraulic (115.20 CNY, market cap 154.5 billion CNY, EPS 1.87 for 2024A) [12][28]. - Longxi Co. (26.98 CNY, market cap 10.8 billion CNY, EPS 0.31 for 2024A) [12][28].

Market Review - In December, the A-share textile and apparel sector underperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing outperforming branded apparel. Since January, the sector has shown stronger performance, with textile manufacturing up by 5.1% and branded apparel up by 4.5% [1][15] - Key companies that have led in stock price increases since January include Under Armour (12.5%), New Australia (11.9%), and Geely (11.0%) [1] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, decreasing by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - E-commerce growth in December declined, indicating weak overall apparel consumption demand, primarily due to early release of consumer demand during the "Double 11" shopping festival, rising temperatures, and the delayed Spring Festival peak season [2] - Outdoor apparel categories showed strong growth, with sportswear and outdoor apparel growing by 6% and 10% respectively, while home textiles and personal care categories saw declines [2] - Notable brands with strong growth in the sportswear category include Lululemon (10%) and Descente (6%) [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - In December, Vietnam's textile exports increased by 8.4% year-on-year, while footwear exports rose by 4.3%, marking a positive turnaround in growth rates [3] - The prices of cotton showed slight increases and decreases, with domestic cotton prices rising by 4.2% and international prices falling by 1.0% in December [3] - Wool prices continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [3] - Companies in Taiwan showed significant revenue differentiation in December, with overall strong performance driven by World Cup demand, leading to increased order visibility and production capacity expansion [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on brands with favorable market conditions and recovering upstream orders. The report is optimistic about the recovery of high-end consumption and the growth of the light luxury sports and outdoor segments [5][8] - Recommended brands include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in high-end and outdoor apparel [5][8] - In textile manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International and Weixing Co. are highlighted for their potential benefits from tariff reductions and Nike's recovery [9]