1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, A - share market rose first and then fell, with the daily trading volume hitting a record high on Wednesday. The bond market yield declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, down 3.58bp from the previous week. Most convertible bond issues closed higher, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 1.08% for the week [1][8][9]. - Although the current market price and convertible bond valuations in each price - parity range are close to historical 100% quantile positions, the equity is in an upward main - rising wave. Institutions' fear of missing out on opportunities strongly supports the convertible bond valuations. Currently, it is the stage with the strongest certainty of upward market force, and investors are reluctant to reduce positions despite high valuations [3][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Focus (January 12 - January 16, 2026) Stock Market - A - shares rose first and then fell. The daily trading volume reached a record high of 3.99 trillion yuan on Wednesday. After the exchange adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading on Wednesday, market sentiment cooled down. The commercial aerospace sector declined from its high, and the market focus shifted to AI applications and semiconductors. The dividend - paying sector underperformed [1][8]. - By industry, most Shenwan primary industries fell last week. Computer (3.82%), electronics (3.77%), non - ferrous metals (3.03%), media (2.04%), and machinery and equipment (1.91%) led the gains, while national defense and military industry (- 4.92%), real estate (- 3.52%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 3.27%), and coal (- 3.11%) lagged [9]. Bond Market - Although the equity market continued to rise at the beginning of the week, the impact on the bond market weakened significantly. Due to the increased expectation of equity market adjustment after its rapid rise, the bond market yield declined. After the central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools on Thursday, the yield fluctuated and remained stable overall. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, down 3.58bp from the previous week [1][9]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 1.08% for the week, the median price was up 0.63%, the arithmetic average parity was up 1.39%, and the market - wide conversion premium rate decreased by 0.64% compared with the previous week. In terms of individual bonds, Huayi, Dingjie, Haohan, Jingce Zhuan 2, and Weice led the gains, while Zai 22, Tianjian, Guanglian, Hugong, and Shentong convertible bonds led the losses [2][9][14]. - By industry, most convertible bond sectors in the market closed higher last week. Computer (4.92%), electronics (4.63%), media (4.62%), and machinery and equipment (4.32%) performed well, while national defense and military industry (- 5.17%), building materials (- 3.23%), coal (- 2.06%), and transportation (- 1.38%) underperformed [13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 509.615 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 101.923 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [16]. 3.2 Views and Strategies (January 19 - January 23, 2026) - The consensus on rising prices supports the valuation of convertible bonds. Last week, the equity market rose first and then fell under the influence of cooling forces. The theme market shifted from aerospace to AI applications and semiconductor equipment, and related convertible bonds performed well. The average parity increased, and the median market price rose to 139 yuan. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds in the high - parity range increased significantly. Convertible bond ETFs still showed a significant net inflow trend, and new issues remained strong [3][19]. - In terms of investment directions, for relative returns, it is recommended to focus on lithium - battery, semiconductor equipment and materials, chemical industry, and securities industries. For absolute - return funds, attention should be paid to the undervalued leading companies in underperforming industries such as two - wheeled vehicles, beauty and skincare, architectural design, and pig farming [4][20]. 3.3 Valuation Overview As of January 16, 2026, in equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 52.01%, 41.63%, 33.21%, 26.22%, 21.03%, and 21.08% respectively, at the 99%/100%, 98%/100%, 98%/100%, 99%/100%, 97%/100%, and 99%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021. In debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 4.26%, at the 1%/4% quantile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 51.03%, at the 96%/100% quantile since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 9.85%, at the 97%/100% quantile since 2010/2021 [21]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking - Last week (January 12 - January 16, 2026), Shangtai Convertible Bond and Naipu Zhuan 02 announced their issuances, while Aohong, Shuangle, and Jin 05 convertible bonds were listed [28]. - As of the announcements on January 16, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances and listings in the coming week (January 19 - January 23, 2026). Last week, 4 companies including Haitian Co., Ltd., Changgao Electric Co., Ltd., Tonglian Precision Co., Ltd., and Xianghe Industrial Co., Ltd. got the exchange's approval for registration, 1 company (Jiangshan Co., Ltd.) was accepted by the exchange, 2 companies (Runhe Materials and Qiangda Circuit) passed the shareholders' meeting, and 4 companies (Jindao Technology, Zhongchuang Zhiling, Caixun Co., Ltd., and Dingtong Technology) were at the board of directors' proposal stage [34]. - As of now, there are 99 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total planned issuance scale of 155.14 billion yuan. Among them, 9 bonds have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 8.69 billion yuan, and 1 bond has passed the listing committee, with a scale of 0.38 billion yuan [34].

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report regularly tracks the latest private exchangeable bond (private EB) projects from public channels, focusing on basic elements, with the caveat that issuance terms and progress may change, and the final prospectus and relevant underwriters should be referred to [1] - From January 12 - 16, 2026, the project of Huabang Life - Science Co., Ltd.'s 2026 private offering of science - innovation exchangeable corporate bonds to professional investors was accepted by the exchange, with an intended issuance scale of 1 billion yuan, and the underlying stock being Kaisheng New Materials (301069.SZ), and the lead underwriters being Huatai United and Southwest Securities, updated on January 16, 2026 [1] Group 2: Project Status Summary - As of January 16, 2026, multiple private exchangeable bond projects have different statuses: many projects such as those of Shanxi Transportation Development and Investment Group Co., Ltd. have passed; projects of Hainan农垦 Investment Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and others have received feedback; projects of Huabang Life - Science Co., Ltd. and Northern Lingyun Industrial Group Co., Ltd. have been accepted [3] - The scale of these projects ranges from 200 million yuan to 5 billion yuan, and the underlying stocks cover various companies like Huaxiang Co., Ltd., Fuda Co., Ltd., and Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [3]

- The CSI Satellite Industry Index (931594.CSI) selects up to 50 listed companies involved in satellite manufacturing and launching, ground equipment manufacturing, satellite navigation, satellite communication, and other related technological R&D and applications to reflect the overall performance of the satellite industry securities market [29][64] - The index's industry distribution is highly concentrated in the national defense and military industry, with a weight of 59.26%, followed by electronics (11.94%) and computers (11.49%) [31][64] - The index's R&D expenditure ratio is significantly higher than the overall market and the CSI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index, with 38% of its constituent stocks having an R&D expenditure ratio exceeding 20% [37][64] - The CSI Satellite Industry Index's 2024 revenue growth rate is projected at 18.12%, with expected growth rates of 11.23%, 15.9%, and 20.76% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 222.01%, 48.86%, and 32.34%, respectively [41][64] - Over the past year, the index achieved a return of 121%, with a one-month return of 53%, outperforming the CSI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index. It also demonstrated lower drawdown levels, showcasing better risk-return characteristics [50][64] - The index's compilation rules mandate that the combined weight of the satellite manufacturing and launching sectors must not fall below 50%, aligning with the current development phase of the industry, especially amid favorable conditions for rocket launches and satellite manufacturing [29][54][64]

- The **CSI Satellite Industry Index (931594.CSI)** selects up to 50 listed companies involved in satellite manufacturing and launching, ground equipment manufacturing, satellite navigation, satellite communication, and other related technological R&D and applications to reflect the overall performance of the satellite industry securities market [29][64] - The index's industry distribution is highly concentrated in the defense and military sector, with a weight of 59.26%. The proportion of constituent stocks with R&D expenditure exceeding 20% is 38%, which is significantly higher than the overall market level and the CSI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index [31][37][64] - The index's revenue growth rate for 2024 is projected at 18.12%, with expected growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 11.23%, 15.9%, and 20.76%, respectively. Net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 222.01%, 48.86%, and 32.34%, respectively [41][64] - Over the past year, the index achieved a return of 121%, with a one-month return of 53%, outperforming the CSI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index. Additionally, it demonstrated lower drawdown levels, showcasing better risk-return characteristics [50][51][64] - The index's compilation rules mandate that the combined weight of the "satellite manufacturing + launching" foundational sectors must not be less than 50%, aligning with the current development phase of the industry amidst continuous favorable news in rocket launches and satellite manufacturing [29][54][64]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月18日 基金投资价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链——招商中证卫星产业 ETF 投资 价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链 当前全球各国积极加快布局、抢占先机：卫星频率和轨道资源是全球稀缺战 略资源。依据 ITU"先到先得"规则，率先完成部署的主体可优先锁定轨道与 频段使用权，这一规则重塑了全球太空资源竞争格局。在此背景下中国推进 "GW 星座""千帆星座"等国家级星座计划，拟在未来十年内完成上万颗部署。 政策大力支持，国家战略持续加码：我国政府有关部门连续颁布一系列法规 及政策文件，大力支持商业航天领域发展，强调加快布局卫星网络的紧迫性。 目前国家队和民营企业"双线并进"的技术研发模式形成了良好的互补效应。 中证卫星产业指数投资价值分析 中证卫星产业指数（931594.CSI）选取不超过 50 只业务涉及卫星制造 与发射、卫星地面设备制造、卫星导航、卫星通信以及其它技术研发与 应用环节的上市公司证券，以反映卫星产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 指数行业分布主要集中在国防军工行业，占比 59.26%，成分股研发支出占 比普遍较高，高于全市场水平和国证商用卫星通信产业指数。中证卫星产 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7%[1] - Small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 2.2%, followed by small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) at 1.9%[1] - Among 10 sectors, 6 sectors saw gains, with Food & Staples Retailing up 4.6% and Capital Goods up 4.4%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$1.7 billion this week, down from +$130.2 million last week[2] - Semiconductor products and equipment saw a significant inflow of $37.6 million, while Software & Services experienced an outflow of $32.7 million[2] Earnings Forecast - The 12-month forward EPS estimate for S&P 500 components was revised up by 0.3% this week, consistent with last week[3] - The automotive sector led with an EPS increase of 1.3%, while the energy sector saw a decrease of 2.1%[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policies[3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% this week, while the Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 2.6%. Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap and mid-cap stocks, with the Hang Seng Large Cap Index up by 2.8% and the Hang Seng Mid Cap Index only increasing by 1.0% [1] - The internet sector led the market rally, with the Hang Seng Internet Index rising by 3.7%. Overall, 22 industries saw gains, while 7 experienced declines, with notable increases in the comprehensive sector (+16.3%) and retail trade (+8.8%) [1] Valuation Levels - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% to 11.9x, with the Hang Seng Composite Index also at 11.9x after a 2.0% rise. The Hang Seng Internet Index saw a significant increase of 4.6% to 18.6x [2] - Among various strategies, the ROE defensive strategy's valuation rose by 2.5% to 9.0x, while the ROE offensive strategy decreased by 1.2% to 13.9x. Overall, 22 industries experienced valuation increases, with retail trade (+10.7%) and computers (+6.3%) leading the way [2] Earnings Expectations - The earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.3% week-on-week, while the Hang Seng Composite Index saw a 0.4% rise. The Hang Seng High Dividend Index's EPS was revised up by 2.2%, contrasting with a slight decrease of 0.2% for the Hang Seng Internet Index [3] - A total of 15 industries had upward revisions in EPS, with the comprehensive sector seeing a notable increase of 13.7%. Conversely, 12 industries had downward revisions, with the construction materials sector experiencing a significant decrease of 4.6% [3]

Monetary Policy - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points to 1.25%, below the short-term policy rate of 1.4%[1] - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts in 2026, but these are likely to be used as a reserve tool rather than a routine operation[1][11] - Current monetary policy focuses on structural rate cuts rather than comprehensive rate cuts, reflecting internal constraints such as low net interest margins for commercial banks[1][11] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year[3] - Retail sales have increased by 1.3% year-on-year[3] - Exports have risen by 6.6% year-on-year[3] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal spending is expected to increase in Q1 2026, supported by a significant carryover of surplus funds from 2025[2][12] - The combination of structural monetary easing and fiscal policy aims to effectively expand domestic demand and solidify economic recovery[12] Market Trends - Production remains strong, with high demand in sectors like machinery and textiles, while real estate transactions continue to decline[13][14] - Port cargo throughput has increased by 4.82% year-on-year, indicating robust foreign trade momentum[22] Risks - There are uncertainties in overseas markets that could impact economic stability[2][51]

Core Conclusions - Since mid-December last year, broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds have successively propelled the spring market rally [1] - Currently, there is net redemption in ETFs, a slowdown in the inflow of flexible foreign capital, and the inflow rate of leveraged funds has been too fast, which may put pressure on the short-term stock market liquidity [2] - The spring market rally is not over, and short-term fluctuations may present layout opportunities, with a balanced allocation structure, focusing on technology applications and upstream cycles, while paying attention to real estate and other traditional assets [1][3] Market Liquidity Changes - Since December 17, 2025, the A-share broad index has continued to rise, with the spring market gradually unfolding. The micro-funding environment has seen broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds play a supportive role [12] - In December, broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows, with a total net inflow exceeding 100 billion yuan, significantly higher than the -14.2 billion yuan in November. The ETF linked to the CSI A500 index contributed the majority of the subscription scale [12] - The strengthening of the RMB has catalyzed the inflow of flexible foreign capital into A-shares, with an estimated net inflow of at least 13.5 billion yuan in December, despite overall foreign capital being net outflow [12] Recent Changes in Micro-Funding - Recent weeks have seen new changes in the micro-funding environment, with net redemptions in ETFs and a slowdown in the inflow rate of flexible foreign capital. As of mid-January, broad-based ETFs have seen a cumulative net redemption of about 200 billion yuan [22] - The inflow rate of short-term leveraged funds has been too fast, with the financing balance exceeding 2.7 trillion yuan, creating historical highs. The average daily net buying amount since January 15 has reached 19.7 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 2.9 billion yuan in December [13][23] Spring Market Outlook - The current spring market rally is characterized by a significant upward trend rather than a minor rebound, with further potential for development. The market sentiment has not yet reached its peak, and the current policy environment remains accommodative [33] - The AI wave continues to drive technology growth as the main industry line for this bull market, with recommendations to focus on sectors where AI applications are being implemented [36] - There are also opportunities in value sectors such as undervalued real estate, non-bank financials, traditional consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, and upstream resource products [40]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that there may be a slight net outflow of northbound funds in the recent week, while flexible foreign capital might see a small net inflow [1] - In the Hong Kong stock market, stable foreign capital experienced an outflow of 1 million HKD, while flexible foreign capital saw an inflow of 7.9 billion HKD, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded an inflow of 15.5 billion HKD [1][2] - In the Asia-Pacific market, foreign capital flowed into Japan during the week, while there was an outflow from India in December [2][17] Group 2 - In the A-share market, the estimated net outflow of northbound funds was 4.3 billion CNY during the week of January 12-16, 2026, compared to a net inflow of 9.6 billion CNY in the previous week [10] - The top active stocks in the northbound trading during the week included Ningde Times with a total transaction amount of 21.9 billion CNY, accounting for 17% of the stock's weekly trading amount [10] - In the Hong Kong stock market, a total of 24 billion HKD flowed into the market, with significant inflows into ETFs, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductors [12] Group 3 - In the US market, global mutual fund inflows into the US equity market amounted to 9.2 billion USD in November, an increase from 3.8 billion USD in the previous month [19] - In the European market, mutual fund inflows in November included 0.55 billion USD in the UK, 1.17 billion USD in Germany, and 1.4 billion USD in France, contrasting with outflows in the previous month [21]