证券研究报告 | 2025年11月06日 百诚医药（301096.SZ） 优于大市 业绩承压，持续推进创新转型 2025 年前三季度业绩承压。2025 年前三季度公司实现营收 5.10 亿元 （-29.33%），归母净利润 0.06 亿元（-95.68%），扣非归母净利润-0.14 亿元（-111.13%）。2025Q3 单季营收 1.78 亿元（-9.62%），归母净利 润 0.03 亿元（-59.36%），扣非归母净利润-0.02 亿元（-221.57%）。 2025 年三季度收入端个位数下滑，由于传统仿制药 CRO 竞争加剧、MAH 监管趋严，利润端持续承压。 毛利率有所下降，费用率有所增长。2025 年前三季度毛利率 48.98% （-12.19pp），受价格竞争以及赛默产能利用率较低的影响，毛利率下 滑较多。销售费用率 1.46%（-0.11pp），管理费用率 16.15%（+9.85pp）， 研发费用率 27.32%（-5.26pp），财务费用率 2.47%（+2.28pp），四费 率 47.39%（+6.77pp），管理费用率增长明显。 赛默制药产能利用率有望提升，创新药转型持续推进。在全国第十 ...

春立医疗（688236.SH） 优于大市 2025 年第三季度营收翻倍增长，出海业务成为第二增长曲线 收入保持高速增长，归母净利润增长超预期。2025 年前三季度公司实现营收 7.56 亿（+48.8%），归母净利润 1.92 亿（+213.2%），扣非归母净利润 1.81 亿（+311.1%）。单三季度实现营收 2.68 亿（+109.5%），环比增长 4%；归 母净利润 0.77 亿，同比扭亏为盈，环比增长 37%，利润表现超预期。公司各 产品线在纳入集采后，已逐步进入新的增长态势。公司坚持产品创新与国际 化发展双轮驱动战略，并通过精细化运营管理、优化资源配置等举措，进一 步释放利润增长空间，为整体经营业绩注入强劲动力。 净利率显著提升，销售费用率大幅下降。2025 年前三季度毛利率为 67.3% （-2.0pp），国内关节国采续约后对于集采内产品的价格调整一定程度上影 响毛利率水平。销售费用率 19.3%（-12.8pp），随着业务体量增长及精细化 运营大幅下降，并已显著低于集采前水平；管理费用率 5.1%（-1.1pp），研 发费用率 11.4%（-8.2pp），财务费用率-1.3%（+0.1pp）， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][28]. Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue growth of 10% in Q3 2025, with a net profit growth of 8% after excluding share-based payment expenses. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.106 billion (up 2.1%) and a net profit of 207 million (up 26.2%) [1][3]. - The sales model transformation has led to a focus on core business lines, driving revenue and sales growth across multiple product lines. The joint product line saw a revenue of 273 million (down 9%) but a volume increase of 15% in the first three quarters [2][3]. - The company has improved its profitability metrics, with a net profit margin of 19.1% (up 3.5 percentage points) and a significant reduction in sales expense ratio by 7.9 percentage points to 26.4% [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 64.6% (down 0.1 percentage points) and an operating cash flow of 250 million (up 31.9%), maintaining a healthy ratio of operating cash flow to net profit at 121% [3][26]. - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 281 million, 325 million, and 378 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 15.5%, and 16.5% [3][26]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 41.4 for 2025, 35.8 for 2026, and 30.8 for 2027, indicating the company's potential for platform growth and risk resistance [3][26].

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the livestock sector, particularly in beef and dairy farming, predicting a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices expected to rise significantly [1][14] - The report recommends a selection of stocks in the livestock and feed sectors, highlighting companies like Yuran Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group as key investment opportunities [1][3] Livestock Sector - The report anticipates a reversal in the beef cycle, with domestic beef prices expected to rise due to a combination of domestic supply adjustments and international price increases [14] - The dairy market is projected to improve, driven by a rising meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows and enhance profitability for dairy farming companies [14] - Key recommended stocks in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu [14][18] Swine Sector - The report highlights a recovery in the swine sector, with a focus on leading companies like DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.49 CNY/kg, reflecting a 6% month-on-month increase, while the price of piglets decreased by 9.18% [2][21] - The report notes that the industry is experiencing a rational approach to breeding, with a stable number of breeding sows maintained [21][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see increased demand, with prices for broiler chickens and chicks rising, indicating a recovery in consumption as the market enters a peak season [34][37] - The report mentions that the supply of yellow-feathered chickens remains low, which may benefit leading producers as domestic demand improves [40][41] - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Lihua Stock and Shengnong Development [19] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a growth area, with domestic consumption expected to continue rising, particularly in pet food and healthcare [16] - Key recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [16][19] Feed Sector - The feed sector is projected to benefit from a recovery in aquaculture and livestock production, with Haida Group highlighted as a leading player in the feed market [1][19] - The report indicates that the price of corn, a key feed ingredient, is currently at a historical low, providing a strong cost support for feed production [21][22] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have decreased by 5.37% month-on-month [2][21] - The overall agricultural sector is expected to experience a gradual recovery, with specific attention to the dynamics of supply and demand for key commodities [19][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices remaining high. China's potassium chloride production is expected to decrease slightly in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high [1][27]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs in China, alongside growing demand from downstream sectors like lithium iron phosphate [2][5]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, with production and prices increasing significantly in recent months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - China's potassium chloride production is forecasted at 5.5 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are expected to reach 12.633 million tons, a 9.1% increase [1][27]. - The average market price for potassium chloride in October was 3,228 RMB/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [1][45]. - The report recommends focusing on potassium fertilizer companies, particularly "Yaji International," which is expected to produce 2.8 million tons and 4 million tons of potassium chloride in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][50]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply and high prices, with 30% grade phosphate rock prices remaining above 900 RMB/ton for over three years [2][52]. - As of October 31, 2025, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei was 1,040 RMB/ton, while in Yunnan it was 970 RMB/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [2][52]. - The report highlights companies with rich phosphate reserves, recommending "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group," while suggesting attention to "Hubei Yihua" and "Yuntu Holdings" for their potential in increasing self-sufficiency in phosphate rock [5]. Pesticides - The report anticipates an increase in exports of glyphosate and glufosinate to the Northern Hemisphere during the seasonal peak from November to January [4][8]. - The price of glyphosate in the East China market rose to 27,300 RMB/ton, a 17.67% increase since April [4][8]. - The report recommends "Yangnong Chemical" for its long-term growth potential, along with other companies like "Lier Chemical" and "Xingfa Group" for their strong market positions [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit of 4.4% for the third quarter, despite a decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][8] - The external oil transportation business is experiencing a recovery, with significant increases in VLCC freight rates observed in September [1][13] - The company has diversified its business structure, maintaining stable performance in its LNG transportation segment [2][17] - The supply-demand dynamics in the oil transportation sector remain favorable, with expectations for upward price elasticity [2][17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 171.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of approximately 27.2 billion yuan, down 21.2% [1][8] - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 54.7 billion yuan, also down 2.6% year-on-year, while net profit was about 8.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.4% increase [1][8] Business Segments - The external oil transportation business generated a gross profit of 17.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decline of 43.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 5.0 billion yuan in the third quarter, down approximately 19% [1][13] - The average daily earnings for the VLCC TD3C route (Middle East to China) were $42,918, an increase of about 16.5% compared to the same period last year, with September's average reaching $76,197 [1][13] - The internal oil transportation business saw a gross profit of 10.2 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year, while the LNG transportation segment contributed a net profit of 6.74 billion yuan, remaining stable [2][17] Future Outlook - The company expects the industry price center to rise in the next 1-2 years, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 47.6 billion yuan, 56.0 billion yuan, and 58.2 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 18.0%, 17.6%, and 3.9% [3][18] - The favorable supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to support upward price elasticity in the oil transportation sector, driven by OPEC+ production increases and a return of black market demand to compliant markets [2][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [4][16]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, but there was a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 167.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.07 billion RMB, down 29.0% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 58.5 billion RMB, down 20.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 9.53 billion RMB, down 55.1% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company's container shipping volume showed positive growth year-on-year, with a total of 6.9 million TEUs shipped in Q3, an increase of 4.9%. However, the supply-demand imbalance led to a significant decline in shipping rates, with the average CCFI down 39.5% year-on-year [1][10]. - The port business demonstrated steady growth, achieving a throughput of 113.28 million TEUs in the first three quarters of 2025, up 5.6% year-on-year. The throughput from controlled terminals was 25.04 million TEUs, an increase of 2.0% [2][10]. - The company is focused on shareholder returns, having distributed a mid-term dividend of 0.56 RMB per share, representing 50% of its net profit for the first half of the year. Additionally, a new share buyback plan has been announced, aiming to repurchase between 50 million to 100 million shares at a price not exceeding 14.98 RMB per share, with an expected total amount of 749 million to 1.498 billion RMB [2][12]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenue for 2025 to be 218.66 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 31.08 billion RMB, down 36.7% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.01 RMB [3][14]. - The EBIT margin is expected to be 15.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.4% [3][14]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit for 2026 and 2027, with estimates of 23.29 billion RMB and 22.07 billion RMB respectively [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][22]. Core Views - The company has shown a positive revenue growth in the international business, with a projected acceleration in revenue growth for the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter [1][21]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in its life information and support product lines, with significant growth in minimally invasive surgery products [2][21]. - The company maintains a strong research and development capability, with a digitalization strategy involving "Equipment + IT + AI" that is expected to redefine the global positioning of Chinese medical devices [3][21]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 25.834 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.570 billion yuan, down 28.8% [1]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 9.091 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 62.0%, down 2.9 percentage points, primarily due to price pressures in the domestic market [3]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.27 billion yuan, down 34.3%, maintaining a healthy level compared to net profit [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has revised its profit forecast downwards, expecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 9.879 billion, 11.153 billion, and 13.129 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -15.3%, 12.9%, and 17.7% [3][21]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 25.3, 22.4, and 19.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][21]. Market and Product Performance - The international revenue accounted for over 50% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12% in the third quarter of 2025, particularly strong in the European market, which grew over 20% [2][21]. - The company’s medical imaging product line saw stable revenue, while the in vitro diagnostics line experienced a decline of 2.81%, although international IVD showed double-digit growth [2][21]. Dividend Policy - The company has approved a cash dividend distribution of 1.637 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2025, resulting in a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 65% for the year [1].

Group 1 - The overall performance of upstream resource products remains low, with internal structural differentiation continuing. The coal industry maintains stable conditions, with a slight month-on-month increase in thermal coal prices. The oil and petrochemical sector continues to show weakness, with a widening year-on-year decline in gasoline and natural gas prices. Basic chemicals are under pressure, with prices of PVC and methanol continuing to decline. Non-ferrous metals remain relatively stable, with slight increases in copper and aluminum prices. Demand for construction materials is weak, with cement and glass prices still in negative territory year-on-year [3][4][5] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, the new energy chain performs well, with improvements in power equipment and a rebound in prices of polysilicon and components. The machinery equipment industry continues its recovery, with marginal improvements in demand for transportation and engineering equipment. The automotive sector shows short-term recovery but remains weak overall, with operating rates and sales improving month-on-month but still below last year's levels. The textile and apparel sector shows significant differentiation, with stable raw material prices but slow recovery in downstream orders [3][4][5] - The downstream consumer sector continues to show a differentiated pattern, with the home appliance sector remaining robust, and sales of small household appliances and kitchen appliances performing well. The food and beverage sector shows a month-on-month rebound, with overall mild increases in agricultural product prices. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experiences increased differentiation, with prices of traditional Chinese medicinal materials continuing to decline. The social services sector continues to recover, with hotel and tourism-related indicators improving month-on-month and increased consumer activity [3][4][5] Group 2 - Supportive services and finance show a continued recovery trend, with the banking system's performance improving month-on-month, and liquidity rebounding, leading to a marginal easing of the funding environment. Non-bank financial services remain highly active but with slowing growth. Transportation shows differentiation, with shipping and container freight rates rebounding while overall freight rates face slight pressure. The environmental protection sector continues to warm up, with improvements in air quality and related investment indicators [3][4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][20] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 4.63 billion yuan (+11.82%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 800 million yuan (+12.66%) [1][6] - Emerging businesses are becoming the core growth engine, with a significant increase in revenue from new business areas, particularly in chemical macromolecules, which saw over 150% growth [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain rapid revenue growth throughout 2025, with projected revenues of 6.68 billion yuan, 7.53 billion yuan, and 8.29 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 10% [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported quarterly revenues of 1.54 billion yuan, 1.65 billion yuan, and 1.44 billion yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with Q2 showing the highest growth at +26.95% [1][6] - The operating cash flow improved to 1.144 billion yuan (+8.38%), indicating enhanced operational efficiency and effective cost control [2][12] - The gross margin for the small molecule CDMO business was 47.0% (-1.9pp), while the emerging business gross margin was 30.6% (+10.6pp) [2][3] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.14 billion yuan, 1.29 billion yuan, and 1.46 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected growth rates of 20%, 14%, and 14% [3][4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 29.8, 26.3, and 23.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]