Core Insights - The wind power industry is expected to experience a synchronous recovery in both domestic and international markets, driven by changes in demand and industry dynamics, creating new investment opportunities [1] - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the wind power sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1] Group 1: Industry Review - Since 2021, China's onshore wind power has entered a parity era, with rapid cost reductions achieved through large-scale and technological advancements, leading to continuous installation exceeding expectations [3] - The competition within the main engine segment has significantly compressed the profitability of the industry chain, resulting in a situation where growth in volume does not equate to growth in profit [3] - The price of the onshore wind industry chain has been recovering since the second half of 2024, with profitability expected to improve in 2025 as shipment volumes increase [3][4] Group 2: Onshore Wind Power Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that new onshore installations in China will reach 120 GW, a year-on-year increase of 10%, setting a new historical high [4] - The industry chain prices are expected to have solid support, leading to significant recovery in main engine profits, with component segments showing notable operational leverage [4] - The CAGR for new onshore installations in emerging markets is projected to be 17% from 2024 to 2030, with domestic manufacturers expected to see substantial growth in export profits [4] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Outlook - The report forecasts that new offshore installations in China will rise to a range of 11-15 GW in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of over 40% [5] - The national offshore wind project development is expected to commence in 2026, with a total of 70-100 GW of new offshore installations projected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - The global offshore wind market is anticipated to see steady growth in orders and construction demand, particularly in Europe, where supply constraints for cables and piles are expected [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the main engine segment such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Sany Renewable Energy, while component manufacturers like Delijia and Jinlei Co. are also highlighted [6] - In the offshore wind sector, companies such as Dajin Heavy Industry, Haili Wind Power, and Oriental Cable are recommended for investment consideration [6]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月18日 唯特偶（301319.SZ） 优于大市 深耕电子焊接材料，双平台战略打造新增长极 前三季度营收同比增长 24.00%，扣非归母净利润同比增长 3.51%。公司发前 三季度实现营收 10.60 亿元(YoY +24.00%)，实现归母净利润 0.70 亿元(YoY -4.84%)，扣非后归母净利润为 0.62 亿元（YoY +3.51%）。其中，公司单三 季度实现营收 3.96 亿元(YoY +19.67%)，实现归母净利润 0.27 亿元(YoY +15.98%)。前三季度公司确认的非经常性损益为 758.63 万元，主要为政府 补助及金融资产公允价值变动损益等。 综合盈利能力稳健，经营性现金流大幅改善。公司前三季度综合毛利率为 16.26%，归母净利率为 6.56%。归母净利润同比小幅下滑主要系去年同期非 经常性损益基数较高所致，而扣非归母净利润的稳健增长彰显了主营业务的 良好发展态势。公司经营质量显著提升，前三季度经营活动产生的现金流量 净额达 0.82 亿元，同比大幅增长 1578.59%，主要系收入增长的同时公司强 化回款管理所致。费用方面，公司持续加大研发投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The hotel industry is experiencing a supply-demand flywheel effect, with leading companies in both domestic and international markets achieving significant market capitalizations. The industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with expectations for supply-demand rebalancing and structural reforms driving growth [1][21] - The company's growth model, which has been effective for over 20 years, emphasizes a "product-traffic-return-scale" cycle, showcasing strong product offerings, substantial membership growth, and efficient cost management [2][3] - The long-term outlook includes a three-phase value reassessment narrative focusing on store expansion, brand upgrades, and model evolution, with projections for significant increases in mid-to-high-end hotel numbers by 2030 [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The hotel industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and leading companies' pricing strategies. The supply side is expected to undergo structural reforms, enhancing growth opportunities [21][24] - The demand side is projected to grow steadily, with leisure travel maintaining resilience and business travel gradually recovering. The overall hotel demand is expected to stabilize as supply expands [24][39] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economy and mid-range hotels by 2030. Brand upgrades are anticipated to enhance profitability and valuation [3][4] - The company's model is evolving towards a light-asset approach, which is expected to support stable cash flows and shareholder returns exceeding 5% [3][4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 44.4 billion CNY for 2025, increasing to 58.6 billion CNY by 2027, with a corresponding rise in earnings per share [5][4] - The estimated reasonable stock price for the company is projected to be between 43 and 45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15-20% from the current price [4][6]

Macro and Strategy - The U.S. non-farm employment data for October and November indicates a lukewarm job market, suggesting that conditions for interest rate cuts are not yet ripe. November saw an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4% [7]. Industry and Company - Recent regulatory policies on fund management are expected to have a long-term impact on the market, emphasizing a tool-oriented approach and potentially increasing style competition in the short term. The new regulations aim to enhance the quality of public fund management, linking the performance assessment of fund managers and sales personnel to investor interests [7]. - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is leveraging its overseas cloud and gaming businesses, with AI integration driving new growth engines. The company has expanded its cloud infrastructure globally, covering 22 regions, and is focusing on SaaS and PaaS services, particularly in Asia and the Middle East [8][9]. - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is projected to reach 75.7 billion RMB in 2025, accounting for 32% of its total gaming revenue, driven by its industrialization capabilities and strategic acquisitions [9]. - Salesforce (CRM.N) reported a revenue of $10.26 billion for Q3 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in its AI-driven products. The company also saw a significant rise in its remaining performance obligations, reaching $29.4 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [11][12]. Financial Engineering - The market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a narrowing of the discount on major contracts. As of December 17, 2025, the annualized discount rates for various index futures are as follows: IH at 0.29%, IF at 3.74%, IC at 4.69%, and IM at 9.94% [14][16]. - The dividend yield for the CSI 300 index stands at 2.11%, with a remaining yield of 0.16%, indicating a focus on dividend-paying stocks in the current market environment [15].

========= - The CSI 500 Index performed well among scale indices, with the CSI 500 Growth Index rising by 2.37%[6] - The ChiNext Index performed well among sector indices, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3.39%[6] - The Communication, Nonferrous Metals, Electronics, Basic Chemicals, and Non-Banking sectors performed well, with returns of 4.92%, 3.15%, 2.58%, 2.36%, and 2.01% respectively[7] - The Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, National Defense and Military, Coal, Comprehensive, and Real Estate sectors performed poorly, with returns of -0.41%, -0.25%, -0.18%, -0.16%, and 0.02% respectively[7] - The concepts of Optical Module (CPO), Lithium Mine, Lithium Battery Electrolyte, Lithium Hexafluorophosphate, and Optical Communication performed well, with returns of 6.59%, 6.39%, 5.36%, 5.28%, and 5.03% respectively[10] - The concepts of Hainan Free Trade Port, Horse Racing, Cross-Strait Integration, Satellite Internet, and Commercial Space performed poorly, with returns of -3.27%, -2.81%, -2.15%, -2.15%, and -1.86% respectively[10] - The highest number of stocks hitting the daily limit during the day was 59, with 58 stocks hitting the limit at the close[13] - The highest number of stocks hitting the daily limit during the day was 28, with 27 stocks hitting the limit at the close[13] - The closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit yesterday was 0.14%, while the closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit yesterday was -2.37%[14] - The sealing rate today was 72%, an increase of 7% from the previous day, and the continuous sealing rate was 22%, a decrease of 1% from the previous day[17] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending as of December 16, 2025, was 2,504.8 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 2,488.1 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 16.7 billion yuan[19] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending accounted for 2.7% of the market's circulating market value, and the margin financing and securities lending transactions accounted for 10.2% of the market's transaction value[22] - The large-cap growth ETF had the highest premium on December 16, 2025, with a premium of 1.15%, while the innovative drug ETF Guotai had the highest discount, with a discount of 0.70%[23] - The average daily transaction amount of block trades in the past six months reached 2.1 billion yuan, and the transaction amount on December 16, 2025, was 1.6 billion yuan[26] - The average discount rate of block trades in the past six months was 6.63%, and the discount rate on December 16, 2025, was 4.62%[26] - The annualized discount rate of the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures in the past year were 0.89%, 3.73%, 11.22%, and 13.67% respectively[28] - The annualized discount rate of the main contract of the SSE 50 stock index futures on December 17, 2025, was 18.71%, at the 2% percentile in the past year[28] - The annualized discount rate of the main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures on December 17, 2025, was 4.57%, at the 41% percentile in the past year[28] - The annualized premium rate of the main contract of the CSI 500 stock index futures on December 17, 2025, was 15.70%, at the 100% percentile in the past year[28] - The annualized premium rate of the main contract of the CSI 1000 stock index futures on December 17, 2025, was 10.74%, at the 100% percentile in the past year[28] - The stocks with the most institutional research in the past week were Changan Automobile, Yipin Red, Boke Shares, Fuchuang Precision, Boying Special Welding, Zhishang Technology, Ruide Intelligent, and Kaizhong Shares, with Changan Automobile being researched by 214 institutions[30] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional special seats on December 17, 2025, were Juguang Technology, Shenzhen Southern Circuit, Hualing Cable, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Shunhao Shares, Kaipu Cloud, Western Materials, Tongyu Communications, Liante Technology, and Gu'ao Technology[36] - The top ten stocks with net outflows from institutional special seats on December 17, 2025, were Yingwei Ke, Snowman Group, Guangxun Technology, Zhongchao Holdings, Biological Shares, Tianji Shares, Sun Cable, Sanyang Horse, Eurasia Group, and Qujiang Cultural Tourism[36] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from Northbound Trading on December 17, 2025, were Shenzhen Southern Circuit, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Aerospace Electromechanical, Guangxun Technology, Hualing Cable, Chaoxun Communications, Chinese Health, and Tongyu Communications[37] - The top ten stocks with net outflows from Northbound Trading on December 17, 2025, were Snowman Group, Biological Shares, Juguang Technology, Yidong Electronics, Aerospace Changfeng, Yingwei Ke, Liante Technology, and Western Materials[37] =========

- The report introduces a quantitative model for estimating dividend points in stock indices, which is crucial for accurately assessing the basis and premium/discount levels of stock index futures contracts. The model incorporates key variables such as component stock weights, dividend amounts, total market capitalization, and index closing prices[43][48][12] - The model's construction process involves several steps: 1. Determining whether a company has announced dividend amounts and ex-dividend dates. If not, the ex-dividend date is estimated based on historical patterns[46] 2. Estimating dividend amounts for companies that have not disclosed them, which involves predicting net profits and dividend payout ratios. Net profit predictions are based on historical profit distributions, while payout ratios are estimated using historical averages[51][55] 3. Predicting ex-dividend dates using a linear extrapolation method based on the stability of historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates[60] 4. Calculating the dividend points for the index using the formula: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount}_n}{\text{Market Cap}_n} \times \text{Weight}_n \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ Here, \(N\) represents the number of component stocks, and the calculation only includes stocks with ex-dividend dates between the current date and the futures contract expiration date[43][48][49] - The model's accuracy was evaluated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual dividend points for indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500. The prediction error for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices was approximately 5 points, while the error for the CSI 500 index was around 10 points, indicating high accuracy for the first two indices and slightly larger deviations for the latter[65][66][70] - The model's application to stock index futures contracts showed strong predictive performance. For the SSE 50 and CSI 300 futures, the predicted dividend points closely matched the actual values, while the CSI 500 futures exhibited slightly larger deviations. This demonstrates the model's robustness, particularly for indices with larger market capitalization coverage[65][66][70]

Employment Data Overview - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.4%[2] - In October, non-farm employment decreased by 105,000, primarily due to a reduction of 157,000 jobs in the government sector[4] Sector Performance - The private sector added 52,000 jobs in October, while November saw an increase of 69,000 jobs[3] - Education and healthcare sectors were significant contributors, adding 65,000 jobs in November[8] - The construction sector improved with an addition of 28,000 jobs in November[8] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate[14] - The unemployment rate for Black or African American individuals rose significantly, indicating structural issues in the labor market[14] - Average duration of unemployment decreased, suggesting some easing in re-employment pressures[16] Wage Trends - Average wage growth showed signs of slowing, with service sector wages dropping to approximately 3.4% year-on-year[20] - Wage growth in the goods-producing sector remained stable at around 4.0%[20] Monetary Policy Implications - Following the employment data release, the market slightly increased expectations for a rate cut in January, now at 26%[23] - The Federal Reserve is likely to consider a 25 basis point rate cut in March, contingent on further employment data[23]

Employment Data Overview - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4%[2] - October saw a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs, primarily due to a reduction of 157,000 jobs in the government sector[4] Sector Performance - The private sector added 52,000 jobs in October, while November saw a rebound with 69,000 jobs added, driven mainly by the education and healthcare sectors[4][6] - The service production sector contributed significantly, with 50,000 jobs added in November, while the goods-producing sector added 19,000 jobs[8] Unemployment Insights - The unemployment rate of 4.6% in November is the highest in nearly four years, indicating challenges in the labor market[14] - The labor force participation rate increased, contributing to upward pressure on the unemployment rate due to limited job absorption capacity[14] Wage Trends - Average wage growth has slowed, with service sector wages increasing by approximately 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure from wages[20] - The goods-producing sector's wages remain relatively high at around 4.0% year-on-year, but show signs of stabilization[20] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the employment data release, the market slightly raised expectations for a rate cut in January, with a 26% probability noted[23] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a 25 basis point rate cut in March, contingent on further employment data and inflation trends[23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial sector is "Outperform the Market" [2][6][21] Core Insights - Recent regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aim to enhance the quality of the public fund industry, focusing on performance evaluation, sales behavior, and aligning the interests of fund managers with those of investors [3][4][17] - The new regulations emphasize a shift from "scale-driven" to "investor return-driven" approaches, promoting a healthier investment culture and protecting investor interests [4][14][17] - The performance evaluation system has been refined to include specific quantitative requirements, linking fund managers' compensation to long-term performance metrics [5][7][17] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The CSRC has issued guidelines for performance evaluation and sales behavior, which include stricter management of compensation, performance assessment, and accountability mechanisms [3][4] - The new rules require that at least 80% of performance evaluation metrics focus on long-term results, with significant weight given to investor outcomes [5][7] Market Impact - The regulations are expected to lead to a strategic shift towards passive and enhanced index products, as fund managers will face reduced incentives for short-term performance chasing [8][14][17] - There may be short-term market volatility as fund managers adjust to the new evaluation criteria, potentially leading to increased "herding" behavior in investment strategies [14][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that sectors currently underweighted by public funds, such as securities, may see increased capital inflows, leading to valuation improvements [17] - Specific recommendations include leading brokerage firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, which are currently undervalued compared to industry averages [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Salesforce (CRM.N) is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - Salesforce reported a revenue of $10.26 billion for Q3 2025 (FY2026 Q3), a year-on-year increase of 9%, driven by the performance of Agentforce, Data 360, and Agentforce for Sales & Service [1][7] - The company achieved a GAAP net profit of $2.086 billion, exceeding expectations of $1.581 billion, with a non-GAAP operating margin increase of 240 basis points to 35.5% [1][7] - Remaining performance obligations (CRPO) reached $29.4 billion, up 11% year-on-year, indicating strong pipeline generation [2] - The annual revenue guidance for FY2026 has been raised to $41.15–$41.25 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 9% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Salesforce's revenue was $10.26 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year, aligning closely with expectations [1][7] - The GAAP net profit was $2.086 billion, surpassing the forecast of $1.581 billion, with significant improvements in profit margins [1][7] - Operating cash flow reached $2.3 billion, a 70% increase year-on-year, while free cash flow was $2.2 billion, up 22% [1] Growth Drivers - The current remaining performance obligations (CRPO) reached $29.4 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, marking one of the largest pipeline generation quarters in recent years [2] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) for Agentforce and Data reached nearly $1.4 billion, with Agentforce's ARR growing by 330% year-on-year [2] - The company completed the acquisition of Informatica three months ahead of schedule, with expectations of significant revenue contributions in the coming fiscal years [2] Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for FY2026 has been adjusted to $41.15–$41.25 billion, with Informatica expected to contribute approximately 80 basis points to this growth [3] - The projected revenues for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are $41.367 billion, $46.248 billion, and $50.681 billion, respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [3][12]