Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL.O) is "Outperform" [7] Core Insights - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 18% year-over-year, reaching $113.8 billion in Q4 2025, with a net profit of $34.5 billion, reflecting a 30% increase [2][13] - Google Cloud revenue surged by 48% year-over-year to $17.7 billion, with a backlog of $240 billion, indicating robust demand and growth potential [3][11] - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) for Q4 2025 were $27.9 billion, up 113% year-over-year, with expectations for 2026 CAPEX to reach $175-185 billion, nearly doubling from the previous year [4][12] Revenue Overview - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $113.8 billion, with a GAAP gross margin of 60% and an operating profit margin of 31.6% [2][13] - Service revenue was $95.9 billion, with search advertising revenue at $63.1 billion, up 17% year-over-year, and YouTube ad revenue at $11.4 billion, up 9% [10][14] Cloud Performance - Google Cloud's operating profit margin improved to 30.1%, with significant growth in new customer acquisition and existing customer spending exceeding initial commitments by over 30% [3][11] - Nearly 75% of Google Cloud customers are utilizing vertically optimized AI solutions [3][11] Capital Expenditure Plans - The company plans to significantly increase its capital expenditures, with a forecast of $175-185 billion for 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 91%-102% [4][12] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to $471.8 billion and $543.3 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to $145.4 billion and $165.4 billion [4][6]

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model is constructed based on a dual-layer selection process that integrates fundamental and technical analysis. The stock pool is initially built using analyst recommendation events, such as upward earnings revisions, first-time coverage, and unexpected positive research report titles. Stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance are selected to form the portfolio. The backtesting period spans from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.08% and an excess return of 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index after considering transaction costs in a fully invested state[14][15][19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor is based on the concept of momentum and trend-following strategies, which are particularly effective in the Hong Kong stock market. The factor emphasizes stocks that have recently reached a 250-day high, with a specific calculation formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Here, $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values indicate the degree of pullback from the high. Stocks are further filtered based on analyst attention, relative strength, price stability, and trend continuation metrics[20][22][23] - The backtesting results for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model show an annualized return of 19.08%, an excess return of 18.06%, and an information ratio (IR) of 1.19 over the entire sample period. The maximum drawdown was 23.73%, with a tracking error of 14.60% and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.76[19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identified stocks such as Nine Dragons Paper, with the highest number of stocks coming from the cyclical sector (14 stocks), followed by consumer, manufacturing, financial, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors. Specific stocks include Nine Dragons Paper, China Eastern Airlines, and Pacific Basin Shipping, among others[22][23][28]

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Guosen JinGong Index Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to outperform its respective benchmarks by constructing enhanced portfolios based on multiple factors[11][12]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Return Prediction**: Predicting the returns of stocks within the benchmark index. 2. **Risk Control**: Implementing risk control measures to manage the portfolio's risk exposure. 3. **Portfolio Optimization**: Optimizing the portfolio to maximize returns while adhering to the risk constraints[12]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model is designed to consistently outperform its benchmarks by leveraging multiple factors[11]. Model Backtesting Results - **Guosen JinGong Index Enhanced Portfolio**: - **CSI 300 Index Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.24%, annual excess return 3.21%[5][14]. - **CSI 500 Index Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.53%, annual excess return -0.27%[5][14]. - **CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 1.63%, annual excess return 3.92%[5][14]. - **CSI A500 Index Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.40%, annual excess return 3.28%[5][14]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Single-Season SP - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of single-quarter operating revenue to total market value[17]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Single-Season SP} = \frac{\text{Single-Quarter Operating Revenue}}{\text{Total Market Value}} $[17]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well in the CSI 300 and public fund heavy index selection spaces[1][26]. Factor Name: Single-Season EP - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent company to total market value[17]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Single-Season EP} = \frac{\text{Single-Quarter Net Profit Attributable to Parent}}{\text{Total Market Value}} $[17]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well in the CSI 300 and CSI A500 index selection spaces[1][24]. Factor Name: SPTTM - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of trailing twelve months (TTM) operating revenue to total market value[17]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{SPTTM} = \frac{\text{TTM Operating Revenue}}{\text{Total Market Value}} $[17]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well in the CSI 300 and public fund heavy index selection spaces[1][26]. Factor Name: One-Month Reversal - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the price change over the past 20 trading days[17]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{One-Month Reversal} = \text{Price Change over Past 20 Trading Days} $[17]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index selection spaces[1][20][22]. Factor Name: Three-Month Reversal - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the price change over the past 60 trading days[17]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Three-Month Reversal} = \text{Price Change over Past 60 Trading Days} $[17]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index selection spaces[1][20][22]. Factor Name: Non-Liquidity Shock - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the average absolute value of daily price changes over the past 20 trading days divided by the average trading volume[17]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Non-Liquidity Shock} = \frac{\text{Average Absolute Daily Price Change}}{\text{Average Trading Volume}} $[17]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well in the CSI 1000 index selection space[1][22]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Single-Season SP**: - **CSI 300**: Weekly excess return 1.33%, monthly excess return 0.89%, annualized historical return 2.80%[19]. - **Public Fund Heavy Index**: Weekly excess return 1.45%, monthly excess return 1.56%, annualized historical return 1.98%[26]. - **Single-Season EP**: - **CSI 300**: Weekly excess return 0.99%, monthly excess return 1.48%, annualized historical return 5.37%[19]. - **CSI A500**: Weekly excess return 1.29%, monthly excess return 1.59%, annualized historical return 5.16%[24]. - **SPTTM**: - **CSI 300**: Weekly excess return 1.11%, monthly excess return 0.81%, annualized historical return 2.03%[19]. - **Public Fund Heavy Index**: Weekly excess return 1.44%, monthly excess return 1.09%, annualized historical return 0.76%[26]. - **One-Month Reversal**: - **CSI 500**: Weekly excess return 1.19%, monthly excess return -0.32%, annualized historical return -1.60%[20]. - **CSI 1000**: Weekly excess return 1.77%, monthly excess return -0.37%, annualized historical return -4.29%[22]. - **Three-Month Reversal**: - **CSI 500**: Weekly excess return 1.42%, monthly excess return -3.14%, annualized historical return -2.38%[20]. - **CSI 1000**: Weekly excess return 1.56%, monthly excess return 0.76%, annualized historical return -1.95%[22]. - **Non-Liquidity Shock**: - **CSI 1000**: Weekly excess return 1.52%, monthly excess return 2.73%, annualized historical return 2.48%[22].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various active quantitative strategies, indicating that all four major active quantitative portfolios outperformed the stock index this week, despite a general market downturn [1][12][13]. Group 1: Performance Overview - The Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio had an absolute return of -2.39% this week and a year-to-date return of 6.17%, ranking in the 32.03 percentile among active equity funds [1][21]. - The Exceeding Expectations Selected Portfolio reported an absolute return of -1.29% this week and a year-to-date return of 10.59%, ranking in the 9.41 percentile among active equity funds [1][29]. - The Broker's Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio had an absolute return of -2.27% this week and a year-to-date return of 8.94%, ranking in the 15.59 percentile among active equity funds [1][34]. - The Growth and Stability Portfolio recorded an absolute return of -1.79% this week and a year-to-date return of 10.88%, ranking in the 8.73 percentile among active equity funds [1][38]. Group 2: Strategy Summaries - The Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio aims to outperform the median return of active equity funds by utilizing a quantitative approach based on the holdings of top-performing funds [3][43]. - The Exceeding Expectations Selected Portfolio is constructed by filtering stocks based on exceeding expectations and analyst profit upgrades, focusing on both fundamental and technical strengths [4][49]. - The Broker's Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio is designed to optimize stock selection from a pool of broker-recommended stocks, aiming to maintain alignment with the performance of active equity funds [5][54]. - The Growth and Stability Portfolio employs a time-series evaluation framework to identify growth stocks that are likely to yield excess returns, particularly around earnings announcements [6][59].

Group 1: A-Share Market - Recent week saw a slight net outflow of northbound funds estimated at 8.2 billion yuan, compared to a net outflow of 0.9 billion yuan in the previous week [10] - Flexible foreign capital estimated a net inflow of 0.8 billion yuan in the recent week, down from 2.5 billion yuan in the previous week [10] - Top active stocks in the recent week included Zhongji Xuchuang with a total transaction amount of 24.7 billion yuan, accounting for 10% of the stock's weekly trading volume [10] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - Total capital inflow into the Hong Kong market in the recent week was 16.1 billion HKD, with stable foreign capital inflowing 12 billion HKD and flexible foreign capital outflowing 6.6 billion HKD [13] - The inflow of foreign capital was notably high in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, ETFs, and pharmaceuticals, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect saw inflows in banking, software services, and hardware equipment [13] Group 3: Asia-Pacific Market - In the Asia-Pacific market, there was a net inflow of foreign capital into the Japanese stock market amounting to 187 billion yen in the latest week, down from 212.8 billion yen in the previous week [15] - In January, foreign institutional investors withdrew 3.98 billion USD from the Indian stock market, compared to a withdrawal of 2.52 billion USD in the previous month [15] Group 4: US and European Markets - In December, global mutual fund inflows into the US equity market reached 32.2 billion USD, significantly up from 9.2 billion USD in the previous month [18] - European equity markets saw net inflows of 1.74 billion USD, 0.97 billion USD, and 2.16 billion USD into the UK, Germany, and France respectively, compared to the previous month's inflows of 0.55 billion USD, 1.17 billion USD, and 1.4 billion USD [18]

========= - Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to track the market trend by monitoring stocks that hit new highs, based on the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies[11]; Model Construction Process: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price, and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]; Model Evaluation: The model is effective in identifying market trends and hotspots[11] - Factor Name: Stable New High Stocks; Factor Construction Idea: The factor focuses on stocks that have hit new highs and exhibit stable price paths, leveraging the "boiling frog" effect and smooth price paths for stronger momentum effects[25]; Factor Construction Process: Stocks are selected based on analyst attention, relative strength, price path stability, and new high continuity. Specific conditions include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months - Relative strength: Top 20% in market performance over the past 250 days - Price stability: Evaluated using the sum of absolute daily returns over the past 120 days and the ratio of price path length to displacement - New high continuity: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuity: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days[27] Model Backtest Results: - 250-Day New High Distance Model, 250-Day New High Distance for major indices as of February 6, 2026: Shanghai Composite Index 2.39%, Shenzhen Component Index 3.69%, CSI 300 Index 3.07%, CSI 500 Index 5.29%, CSI 1000 Index 4.95%, CSI 2000 Index 3.67%, ChiNext Index 4.48%, STAR 50 Index 8.58%[12][13][15] Factor Backtest Results: - Stable New High Stocks Factor, Number of stocks hitting new highs in the past 20 trading days: 1641; Highest number of new high stocks by industry: Machinery 238, Electronics 196, Basic Chemicals 176; Highest proportion of new high stocks by industry: Nonferrous Metals 69.92%, Defense & Military 63.11%, Petroleum & Petrochemicals 60.78%[19][20] - Stable New High Stocks Factor, Number of stable new high stocks selected this week: 50; Highest number of stable new high stocks by sector: Manufacturing 18, Technology 16[28] =========

========= - The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks, industries, and sectors that have reached new highs, emphasizing the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies[11] - The 250-day new high distance is calculated as $ 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of February 6, 2026, the 250-day new high distances for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index are 2.39%, 3.69%, 3.07%, 5.29%, 4.95%, 3.67%, 4.48%, and 8.58% respectively[12][13][15] - The report identifies 1641 stocks that reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals industries[19] - The highest proportions of new high stocks are in the non-ferrous metals, defense and military, and petroleum and petrochemical industries[19] - By sector, the manufacturing and technology sectors have the most new high stocks this week, with 523 and 513 stocks respectively[20] - The report also tracks "stable new high" stocks based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability[25][27] - The screening criteria include the absolute value of the past 120-day price change, the sum of the absolute values of the past 120-day daily price changes, and the number of buy or overweight ratings in the past three months[27] - This week, 50 stable new high stocks were selected, including Mingyang Smart Energy, Universal Scientific Industrial, and Hengtong Optic-Electric, with the most in the manufacturing and technology sectors[28][31] - The 250-day new high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 2.39%, Shenzhen Component Index 3.69%, CSI 300 3.07%, CSI 500 5.29%, CSI 1000 4.95%, CSI 2000 3.67%, ChiNext Index 4.48%, STAR 50 Index 8.58%[12][13][15] - The highest proportions of new high stocks by index are: CSI 2000 30.10%, CSI 1000 35.00%, CSI 500 41.80%, CSI 300 27.33%, ChiNext Index 34.00%, STAR 50 Index 44.00%[20][23][24] - The highest proportions of new high stocks by industry are: non-ferrous metals 69.92%, defense and military 63.11%, petroleum and petrochemical 60.78%[19][22][24] =========

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The performance of fluorochemical companies is strong, supported by stable demand and supply dynamics [1][4]. - The long-term outlook for mainstream refrigerants such as R32, R134a, and R125 remains positive due to tightening quota constraints, which are expected to sustain price increases [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index stood at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025. The index underperformed the Shenwan Chemical Index by 5.95 percentage points but outperformed the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices by 5.12 and 3.01 percentage points, respectively [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants are on the rise. R32 is expected to be priced at 61,200 CNY/ton, a 1.66% increase from the previous quarter, while R410A is projected at 55,100 CNY/ton, up 3.57% [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R134a, R125, and R32 have shown increases, with R22 reaching 17,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton, and R134a maintaining at 58,000 CNY/ton [24][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of the fluorochemical industry is characterized by tight overall supply and low inventory levels among companies, which supports price increases. The demand side shows continued interest in stockpiling ahead of the holiday season [4][9]. - The production quotas for refrigerants in 2026 indicate a slight increase in the production capacity for R32, R125, and R134a, while R143a and R152a quotas have been reduced [4][79]. 4. Liquid Cooling Demand - The rapid growth of data centers is driving the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional air cooling methods are becoming insufficient. The market for liquid cooling solutions is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 100 billion CNY by 2027 [64][70]. - Companies involved in the production of fluorinated liquids, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others, are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [73][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Juhua Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.54-3.94 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-101%. Dongyue Group and Sanmei Co. are also projected to see significant profit increases [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][14] Core Views - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit of 0.8 to 1 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 1.7 billion yuan in 2024. The non-recurring net profit is estimated to be between 130 to 190 million yuan, improving from a loss of 3.95 billion yuan in 2024 [1][8] - The domestic demand recovery is evident, with passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) expected to grow by 5.5%, 8.3%, and 6.6% respectively in 2025. The overall passenger load factor is projected to be 85.74%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][10] - The supply-demand dynamics in the industry are improving, with a forecasted 8.3% growth in RPK for China's civil aviation in 2025. The demand is expected to remain strong due to supportive domestic policies and a recovering macroeconomic environment, while supply growth will be limited due to manufacturing constraints [2][10] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to reach 16.91 billion yuan in 2025, up from 15.99 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.7% [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 0.89 billion yuan, with subsequent years showing significant growth: 5.55 billion yuan in 2026 and 8.395 billion yuan in 2027 [4][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from a loss of 1.80 yuan in 2023 to a profit of 0.05 yuan in 2025, and further to 0.31 yuan in 2026 [4][14]