Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][20] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 4.63 billion yuan (+11.82%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 800 million yuan (+12.66%) [1][6] - Emerging businesses are becoming the core growth engine, with a significant increase in revenue from new business areas, particularly in chemical macromolecules, which saw over 150% growth [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain rapid revenue growth throughout 2025, with projected revenues of 6.68 billion yuan, 7.53 billion yuan, and 8.29 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 10% [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported quarterly revenues of 1.54 billion yuan, 1.65 billion yuan, and 1.44 billion yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with Q2 showing the highest growth at +26.95% [1][6] - The operating cash flow improved to 1.144 billion yuan (+8.38%), indicating enhanced operational efficiency and effective cost control [2][12] - The gross margin for the small molecule CDMO business was 47.0% (-1.9pp), while the emerging business gross margin was 30.6% (+10.6pp) [2][3] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.14 billion yuan, 1.29 billion yuan, and 1.46 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected growth rates of 20%, 14%, and 14% [3][4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 29.8, 26.3, and 23.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience despite a slight decline in revenue and profit due to the impact of the US-China tariff war. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.25 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year [1][2][3] - The company is adjusting its global route structure and exploring incremental demand to mitigate the negative impacts of tariff changes. The Shanghai Pudong export TAC price index fell approximately 6% year-on-year, but the decline is manageable [2][3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 21.6%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, although net profit was pressured by increased operating expenses and a significant drop in other income [3][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 710 million yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year [1][9] - The three main business segments showed varied performance: air express revenue grew by 22.6%, ground integrated services by 9.2%, while comprehensive logistics solutions fell by 27.9% due to the impact of the US policy changes on cross-border e-commerce [2][10] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross profit margin increased, but net profit was affected by rising operating expenses, which increased by 1.6 percentage points to 3.75% [3][11] - Other income significantly decreased from 74.98 million yuan in the previous year to 5.48 million yuan in the current year, contributing to the decline in net profit [3][11] Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.64 billion yuan, 2.98 billion yuan, and 3.23 billion yuan respectively, with a notable adjustment of -25% and -28% for 2025 and 2026 [4][16] - The long-term investment value of the company remains significant, supported by its fleet of 18 B777 freighters and international routes, which are expected to sustain performance growth [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices remaining high. China, being the largest consumer, has a dependency on imports exceeding 60% [1][25]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs in China, alongside growing demand from downstream sectors like lithium iron phosphate [2][5]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, with production and prices increasing significantly, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - China's potassium chloride production is projected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are expected to reach a record high of 12.633 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year [1][25]. - As of October 2025, the average market price for potassium chloride is 3,228 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [1][45]. - The report recommends focusing on potassium fertilizer companies, particularly "Yaka International," which is expected to produce 2.8 million tons and 4 million tons of potassium chloride in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][50]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock supply-demand balance is tight, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei and 970 CNY/ton in Yunnan [2][52]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for phosphate in new applications, particularly in the lithium battery sector, which is driving up prices for related products [3][51]. - Key companies recommended in the phosphate sector include "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group," which have rich phosphate reserves [5][9]. Pesticides - The report anticipates an increase in exports of glyphosate and glufosinate to the Northern Hemisphere during the seasonal peak from November to January, with prices rebounding from historical lows [4][8]. - The domestic glyphosate industry is operating at a high capacity of 92.42%, with inventory levels at a two-year low, supporting price increases [4][8]. - Recommended companies in the pesticide sector include "Yangnong Chemical" and "Lier Chemical," which are well-positioned to benefit from the expected demand surge [8][9].

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月06日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 电解铝权益产能增加，山东宏桥三季度盈利环比增长 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 有色金属·工业金属 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 公司公告：2025 年三季度，上市公司境内发债主体山东宏桥营业收入 387.2 亿元（同比+1.8%，环比+1.8%）， 净利润 69 亿元（同比+15.8%，环比+13.0%）。前三季度山东宏桥净利润 193.7 亿元，经营性净现金流高 达 241 亿元。 国信金属观点：假设 2025-2027 年铝现货含税均价为 20600/21500/21500 元/吨（原值 20500 元/吨），氧化 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月06日 重庆百货（600729.SH） 优于大市 营收短期受调改节奏略承压，持续推进调改升级 零售主业持续承压，马上消费金融投资收益稳定增长。公司前三季度实现营 收 116.30 亿元，同比下降 10.56%；归母净利润 9.91 亿元，同比增长 7.38%； 扣非归母净利润 9.52 亿元，同比增长 5.68%。单三季度来看，公司实现营收 35.89 亿元，同比下降 10.81%；归母净利润 2.17 亿元，同比增长 2.82%。扣 非归母净利润达 2.31 亿元，同比增长 17.90%，非经常损益-1384 万元，主 要由于本期受登康口腔等公允价值变动影响。同时 Q3 公司对联营企业和合 营企业的投资收益 1.94 亿/yoy+31.51%，基本来自于马上消费金融，剔除马 上金融投资收益、非经常损益后实现约 0.38 亿/yoy-23.03%，线下消费持续 承压。同时公司实施上市以来首次中期分红，向全体股东每股派发现金红利 0.1589 元（含税），合计派发现金红利约 0.7 亿元，占 2025 年半年度归 母净利润 9.04%。 从门店来看，Q3 减少 7 家门店，其中 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing ongoing operational pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue decreased by 34.1% to 550 million, and net profit fell to -70 million, a decline of 601.0% [1]. - The company is actively exploring new growth opportunities by transforming its offline stores into a new model combining "technology products + quick-effect massage," launching the "Light Relaxation Moment" health management brand, and leveraging innovative technologies in product development [2][3]. - The gross profit margin has decreased by 5.9 percentage points to 60.9% in Q3, indicating pressure on profitability due to fixed costs and declining revenues [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a total revenue of 835 million, a decrease of 23.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of -54 million, reflecting a significant decline of 622.3% [4][26]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profitability from 2026 onwards, with expected net profits of 25 million in 2026 and 48 million in 2027, indicating a turnaround [4][25]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be -48.1 for 2025, reflecting the current challenging operating environment [4][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][24] Core Insights - The new generation ATTC platform is expected to address the toxicity and resistance issues associated with traditional ADCs, with potential for combination therapy with chemotherapy as a first-line standard treatment [2][3][23] - HMPL-A251 is the first candidate drug from the ATTC platform expected to enter clinical trials in Q4 2025, combining PI3K/PIKK inhibitors with HER2 antibodies [2][7][23] - The PAM pathway is identified as a promising target for broad tumor treatment, and the ATTC platform aims to expand the therapeutic window for targeted therapies [2][12][23] - The company's later pipeline is progressing smoothly, with clinical data for surufatinib in first-line PDAC expected to be presented at the ESMO Asia conference, and the SAFFRON study of savolitinib combined with osimertinib has completed patient enrollment [2][23] Summary by Sections ATTC Platform - The ATTC platform aims to overcome the toxicity and resistance challenges of traditional ADCs by targeting specific mutations, potentially reducing chemotherapy toxicity and enabling combination therapy [3][23] - HMPL-A251, the first clinical candidate from the ATTC platform, is designed to effectively inhibit the PAM pathway and has shown strong anti-tumor activity in HER2-positive models [7][8][12] Clinical Development - HMPL-A251 has received IND approval in the US, with the Chinese IND under review, and is expected to start Phase 1 clinical trials in Q4 2025 [8][12] - The clinical strategy includes enrolling HER2-positive or low-expressing patients and retrospective testing for PAM status [8][10] Future Pipeline - Besides HMPL-A251, two additional ATTC candidates (HMPL-A580 and HMPL-A830) are expected to enter global clinical stages in 2026 [12][23] - The PAM pathway is highlighted as a significant target due to its role in various cancers, with existing therapies showing limited clinical benefits due to associated toxicity [12][15]

Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The real estate industry is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, with new home sales declining by 13% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching a historical low comparable to Q3 2019 [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of income confidence for the mid-term price trends in real estate, indicating that an income confidence index above 50 is necessary for stable housing prices [9] - Investment strategies suggest waiting for market stabilization and focusing on structural opportunities, recommending companies with low historical burdens and conservative price-to-book ratios [10] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry has shown significant growth, with a 25.1% year-on-year increase in global sales in Q3 2025, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of growth [25] - The report highlights that the profitability of semiconductor companies continues to improve, with a net profit growth of 80.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [24] - Investment recommendations focus on storage and self-controlled industrial chains, with specific companies like Jiangbolong and Zhaoyi Innovation suggested for their potential in the rising market [26] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector has experienced a mixed performance, with the A-share food and beverage index down by 0.29% but outperforming the broader market [19] - The report identifies a divergence in performance among categories, with liquor facing challenges while dairy and beverage segments show signs of recovery [18] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and Eastroc Beverage [19] Group 4: Social Services Industry - The social services sector has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of only 4.95% compared to the broader index [20] - The report notes a significant reduction in fund holdings within the sector, reaching historical lows, indicating a cautious outlook [20] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on sectors showing signs of recovery, such as tourism and education, with specific companies recommended for their growth potential [22] Group 5: AI and Cloud Computing - The AI and cloud computing sectors are experiencing rapid growth, with major cloud providers significantly increasing their capital expenditures to support AI infrastructure [11][12] - The report indicates that cloud service providers contribute approximately 50% of Nvidia's data center revenue, with expectations for substantial growth in global data center investments [12] - Investment recommendations include leading AI cloud platform companies like Microsoft, Google, and Alibaba, as well as chip suppliers like Nvidia [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][35] Core Insights - The report highlights that Adidas' revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 12% year-on-year, with management raising the full-year performance guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected business performance [3][7][35] - The company achieved a net profit of €4.85 billion in Q3, with a total revenue of €66.30 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [2][7] - All regions and channels experienced double-digit growth in the first three quarters, excluding the impact of Yeezy [3][4][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached €66.30 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, while the main brand's revenue grew by 12% at constant currency [2][7] - Gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 51.8%, and operating profit rose by 23% to €736 million [7][26] - Net financial expenses amounted to €86 million, influenced by currency fluctuations and hyperinflation [32][33] Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied by region, with Europe showing a 12% increase, North America at 8%, and Latin America leading with a 21% increase [10][11] - The Greater China region saw a 10% revenue increase, benefiting from localized strategies [10][11] - Emerging markets reported a 13% revenue growth, demonstrating resilience despite local challenges [10][11] Product Category Performance - Apparel led growth with a 16% increase, while footwear grew by 11% [21][23] - Accessories saw a modest growth of 1%, primarily due to supply chain adjustments in North America [21][23] - Performance categories grew by 17%, driven by strong sales in running and football products [21][22] Channel Performance - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channels grew by 14%, with e-commerce leading the growth at 15% [25][26] - Wholesale channels also performed well, with a 10% increase in revenue [25][26] Management Guidance - Management raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to approximately 9%, with operating profit expected to reach around €2 billion [30][35] - The guidance reflects confidence in the brand's ongoing momentum and the ability to offset increased costs from U.S. tariffs [30][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company is experiencing ongoing operational pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue decreased by 34.1% to 550 million, and net profit dropped by 601.0% to -70 million. The third quarter alone saw a revenue decline of 28.5% to 170 million, with net profit losses expanding [1][3]. - The company is actively exploring new growth opportunities by transforming its offline stores into a new model that combines "technology products + quick-effect massage." The launch of the "Light Relaxation Moment" health management brand aims to enhance customer traffic and revenue [2][3]. - The company's gross margin has decreased by 5.9 percentage points to 60.9% in Q3, with rising expense ratios impacting profitability. The net profit margin for Q3 fell by 12.1 percentage points to -17.7% [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a total revenue of 835 million, a decrease of 23.1% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to be -54 million, reflecting a significant decline of 622.3% [4][26]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profitability from 2026 onwards, with projected net profits of 25 million in 2026 and 48 million in 2027, indicating a turnaround [4][25]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 60% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to improve as new business models and products are rolled out [20][23].