证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 圆通速递（600233.SH） 优于大市 反内卷带动三季度利润修复，四季度业绩弹性可期 2025年三季度公司业绩增长回暖。2025年前三季度营收541.6亿元（+9.7%）， 归母净利润 28.8 亿元（-1.8%），扣非归母净利润 27.7 亿元（-1.7%）；2025 年第三季度单季营收 182.7 亿元（+8.7%），归母净利润 10.5 亿元（+11.0%）， 扣非归母净利润 10.1 亿元（+9.1%）。 公司件量增速高于行业，市占率同比稳步提升，行业反内卷带动单票价格环 比回升。2025 年第三季度，公司业务量实现了 77.2 亿件（同比+15.0%）， 公司市占率为 15.6%，同比提升 0.2 个百分点。今年 1-7 月份快递行业价格 竞争逐步白热化，但是监管层于 8 月开始实行"反内卷"措施，行业提价从 产粮区逐步扩散至大部分非产粮区，从而带动公司的单票快递收入 8 月和 9 月环比分别提升了 0.07 元和 0.06 元，最终使得公司单票快递收入同比降幅 从二季度的 6.3%收窄至三季度的 2.4%，三季度的单票快递收入环比提升了 0.02 元至 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][15][19] Core Views - The company's revenue remained relatively stable year-on-year, but the decline in oil prices has negatively impacted net profit attributable to shareholders. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.985 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 453 million yuan, down 32.18% year-on-year [1][6] - Oil production reached a record high for a single quarter, with total production of 234,300 tons in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.07%. However, international oil prices have shown a downward trend, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing by 13.64% and 14.76% year-on-year, respectively [2][12] - The Iraq projects are progressing steadily and are expected to contribute to long-term growth. The company has secured development rights for the EBN and MF blocks in Iraq and is in the process of developing these projects [3][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.003 billion yuan, a decline of 11.44% year-on-year, and a net profit of 153 million yuan, down 36.38% year-on-year. The gross margin was 45.80%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and the net margin was 15.26%, down 5.99 percentage points [1][6] - The total expense ratio increased to 30.54%, up 2.69 percentage points from the previous year [1][6] Oil Production - The company produced 164,900 tons of oil from the Wensu project in Q3 2025, a decrease of 3.00% year-on-year, while the Gengke project produced 69,400 tons, an increase of 30.94% year-on-year. Cumulatively, the company produced 673,200 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.20% [2][8] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts downward due to the oil price decline but maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating. The expected revenues for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.741 billion, 4.143 billion, and 4.509 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 610 million, 671 million, and 810 million yuan [3][15][17]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 中国铝业（601600.SH） 优于大市 2025 年前三季度实现量价齐升，利润同增 21% 公司 2025 年前三季度归母净利润同比增长 21%。公司 2025 年前三季度实现 营收 1,765.16 亿元，同比+1.57%；实现归母净利润 108.72 亿元，同比 +20.65%；实现扣非归母净利润 107.16 亿元，同比+23.03%。单三季度实现 营收 601.24 亿元，同比-4.66%，环比-0.80%；实现归母净利润 38.01 亿元， 同比+90.31%，环比+7.59%；实现扣非归母净利润 37.75 亿元，同比+103.05%， 环比+7.94%。公司前三季度业绩高增是由于主营业务之一原铝板块实现了量 价齐增，2025 年前三季度国内电解铝现货均价为 2.05 万元/吨，同比+3.78%。 盈利能力稳步提升，资产负债率持续优化。2025 年前三季度，公司毛利率为 17.31%，同比提升 2.08pct；净利率为 9.80%，同比提升 1.15pct。单三季度 公司毛利率为 18.37%，同比+6.70pct，环比+0.77pct；净利率为 10. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's net profit growth continues to improve, with a year-on-year increase of 5.91% in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 6.56 billion yuan [1] - Non-interest income has shown good growth, with fee income increasing by 9.3% and other non-interest income rising by 17% [1] - The company maintains a stable credit expansion, with total loans increasing by 11.27% year-to-date [2] - The non-performing loan ratio is stable at 1.18%, indicating solid asset quality [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 80.8 billion yuan, 85.1 billion yuan, and 93.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 5.3%, and 9.6% [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 19.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.29% [1] - The annualized return on equity (ROE) stands at 12.48%, reflecting a high level of profitability [1] - The total assets of the company reached 1.24 trillion yuan, with total deposits of 0.75 trillion yuan and total loans of 0.61 trillion yuan [2] - The annualized net interest margin for the first three quarters is 1.63%, a year-on-year decrease of 24 basis points [2] - The company’s provision coverage ratio is at 309.7%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 80.8 billion yuan, 85.1 billion yuan, and 93.2 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.51x, 0.47x, and 0.43x [3] - The company is expected to maintain a stable net interest margin, with signs of stabilization observed [3] - The current stock price is 9.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 37.64 billion yuan [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 农业银行（601288.SH）2025 年三季报点评 优于大市 收入利润继续保持正增长 收入利润继续维持正增长。2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 5509 亿元，同比 增长 2.0%，增速较上半年回升 1.2 个百分点；前三季度实现归母净利润 2209 亿元，同比增长 3.0%，增速较上半年回升 0.3 个百分点。前三季度年化加权 平均 ROE10.5%，同比下降 0.3 个百分点。 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 银行·国有大型银行Ⅱ | 证券分析师：王剑 | 证券分析师：陈俊良 | | --- | --- | | 021-60875165 | 021-60933163 | | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | chenjunliang@guosen.com.cn | | S0980518070002 | S0980519010001 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 收盘价 | 8.06 元 | | 总市值/流通市值 | 2820863/2820863 百万元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 ...

营收利润增速均回升。公司 2025 年前三季度分别实现营收、归母净利润 1996.45 亿元、699.94 亿元，分别同比增长 1.80%、1.90%，增速较上半年分 别回升 1.02pct、0.29pct。其中三季度单季实现营收 662.77 亿元，同比增 长 3.92%；实现归母净利润 239.78 亿元，同比增长 2.46%。公司 2025 年前 三季度年化加权 ROE8.48%，同比下降 0.58pct。从业绩增长归因来看，主要 是公司资产规模扩张及拨备反哺利润贡献业绩增长，但净息差仍显示拖累。 资产增速平稳。公司 2025 年 9 月末总资产同比增长 6.2%至 15.50 万亿元； 贷款（不含应计利息）同比增长 7.5%至 9.07 万亿元，贷款增速较上半年回 落 1.38pct。前三季度累计新增信贷 5163 亿元，分项来看，对公/个人/票据 贷款分别投放 4154/936/73 亿元，其中对公较去年同期多增 764 亿元，个贷 较去年同期则少增 1061 亿元，零售信贷需求仍然疲弱。三季度单季新增信 贷 729 亿元，同比少增 1015 亿元，其中对公及个人较去年同期分别少增 316 亿元、5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][20]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025 increased by 96% year-on-year, reaching 5.61 billion yuan, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices and increased copper production [1][6]. - The company is expected to exceed its annual copper production guidance, with a total production of 543,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a 17% increase year-on-year [1][6]. - The company announced the construction of the KFM Phase II project, with an investment of 1.084 billion USD, expected to add 100,000 tons of copper metal production per year upon completion in 2027 [1][6]. - Despite a significant decline in cobalt sales due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, cobalt prices have risen sharply, which is expected to offset the impact of lower sales volumes on profitability [2][7]. - The company is entering a production release year in 2023, with expectations of copper production reaching 800,000 to 1 million tons by 2028, supported by major expansion projects [2][14]. Financial Forecasts and Key Indicators - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 19.705 billion, 22.868 billion, and 24.116 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.6%, 16.1%, and 5.5% [2][17]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.792, 1.06, and 1.12 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.2, 16.5, and 15.7 [2][17]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 186.269 billion yuan in 2023 to 274.603 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [3][17]. - The EBIT margin is projected to improve from 6.5% in 2023 to 17.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][17]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, with estimates of 24.4% in 2025 and 23.1% in 2027 [3][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][8] Core Views - The company has shown positive growth in revenue and profit, with a revenue of 265.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 76.6 billion yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [1] - The company's total assets increased by 11.1% year-on-year to 18.6 trillion yuan, with corporate loans growing significantly by 17.9% [1] - The net interest margin has decreased to 1.68%, down 21 basis points year-on-year, while non-interest income has seen a robust growth of 11.5% [2] - Asset quality pressures have increased, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% at the end of the third quarter [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 86.6 billion yuan, with a slight growth rate of 0.2% [3][4] - The diluted EPS is expected to remain stable at 0.67 yuan for 2025, with a PE ratio of 8.9x [3][4] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 10.65%, up 1.09 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1] - The company’s total assets are forecasted to reach 18.79 trillion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][25]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters reached 53.976 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.23%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.679 billion yuan, up 39.18% year-on-year. The third quarter revenue was 18.909 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.97% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.43% [1][9]. - The production of gold in the first three quarters was 13.75 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.40%, completing 75.67% of the annual production target. However, copper production decreased by 19.48% year-on-year due to a temporary shutdown of operations in Inner Mongolia [2][10]. - Key projects such as the Saling Gold Mine are progressing steadily, with significant growth potential expected upon completion in 2026. The company is also planning to acquire additional assets to enhance gold production [3][22][25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company expects revenues of 61.264 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.2%. The net profit is projected at 2.978 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 40.7% [5][26]. - The company anticipates revenues of 80.329 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22.5%, and net profits of 5.684 billion yuan, a growth of 67.9% [4][25]. Production and Sales Data - Gold production in Q3 was stable at 4.62 tons, while copper production faced a significant decline due to operational disruptions [2][10]. - The company has completed 75.67% of its annual gold production target and 62.97% of its copper production target by the end of Q3 [2][10]. Key Projects and Future Outlook - The Saling Gold Mine project is a key focus, with an expected annual capacity of 10 tons upon completion. The project is part of the company's strategic growth plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][22]. - The acquisition of additional assets is expected to enhance the company's gold production capabilities significantly [3][22][25].

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 珀莱雅（603605.SH） 优于大市 三季度业绩有所承压，战略调整蓄力长期成长 三季度淡季业绩略有承压。公司 2025 年前三季度实现营收 70.98 亿 /yoy+1.89%，归母净利润 10.26 亿/yoy+2.65%，扣非归母净利润 9.98 亿 /yoy+2.72%。单 Q3 实现营收 17.36 亿/yoy-11.63%，归母净利润 2.27 亿 /yoy-23.64%，扣非归母净利润 2.27 亿/yoy-22.30%。单三季度业绩承压预 计与今年双 11 大促前置导致 Q3 加大种草蓄水费用前置影响有关，目前在天 猫美妆双 11 现货 4 小时成交榜中，公司主品牌珀莱雅蝉联 TOP1。 同时公司已于 2025 年 10 月 30 日向香港联交所递交了发行 H 股股票并在香 港联交所主板挂牌上市申请。 分品牌看，前三季度主品牌珀莱雅营收同比中个位数下降，在天猫和抖音平 台 ROI 分别为 3.2/2.5，退货率为 38%/35%+；彩棠营收同比双位数上升，天 猫/抖音 ROI 分别为 2/1.7；OR 营收同比超翻倍；悦芙媞营收同比个位数增 长；原色波 ...