能源供需格局存在严重不匹配情况。 伴随能源供需缺口持续增大，我国油气对外依存度持续增加。2023 年 6 月，我国原油对外依 存度为 74.77%，天然气对外依存度为 42.55%。较高的油气对外依存度显示了国家目前能源 安全形势严峻，需加大勘探开发力度以保障国家能源安全。 负责本研究报告全部或部分内容的每一位证券分析师，在此申明，本报告的观点、逻辑和论据均为分析师本 人研究成果，引用的相关信息和文字均已注明出处。本报告依据公开的信息来源，力求清晰、准确地反映分 析师本人的研究观点。本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与、现在不与，未来也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐或 观点直接或间接相关。 首席周观点：2024年第28周 P10 公司投资评级（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指数）： 以报告日后的 6 个月内，公司股价相对于同期市场基准指数的表现为标准定义： 强烈推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 15％以上； 推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 5％～15％之间； 中性：相对于市场基准指数收益率介于-5％～+5％之间； 回避：相对弱于市场基准指数收益率 5％以上。 行 ...

Inflation Trends - The U.S. June CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is below the expected 3.1%[1] - Core CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.4%[1] Inflation Dynamics - Inflationary stickiness has notably weakened, showing both trends and seasonal patterns[2] - The current policy interest rate is close to the neutral rate, limiting the frequency of preventive rate cuts[3] Price Movements - Oil and housing prices have both seen a decline in month-on-month growth rates; gasoline prices fell by 3.8%[4] - Core inflation components showed mixed results, with housing prices increasing by 0.2% while airfare dropped by 5%[4] Economic Outlook - Preventive rate cuts are deemed reasonable, with the CPI remaining stable within the historical range of 3% to 3.8% for 13 consecutive months[5] - The U.S. economy is expected to perform well in Q3 and Q4 if no recession occurs in the first half of the year[6] Market Implications - Short-term recession risks in the U.S. stock market are low, supported by stable economic investments and AI breakthroughs[9] - Long-term market bubbles may re-emerge, reminiscent of the 1997-2000 tech bubble, due to tightening monetary policies[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth driven by the expansion of traditional small parts and the development of new energy medium and large parts. Revenue growth rates for 2021-2023 were 23.75%, 33.05%, and 39.67%, respectively, with a 30.69% year-on-year growth in Q1 2024 [1][2]. - The automotive segment has also seen significant sales growth, with product sales increasing by 69.6% in 2022 and 65.2% in 2023. The average selling prices for automotive products were 13.4 yuan/piece and 11.8 yuan/piece, respectively [1]. - The company is enhancing its market share in various small and medium-sized components, which are considered "invisible champions" in the automotive sector, providing a competitive edge in efficiency and cost [1]. - The new energy vehicle (NEV) segment is steadily advancing, with NEV-related products accounting for approximately 30% of sales in 2023. The company expects that 90% of the projected sales revenue from its aluminum die-casting segment will come from NEV projects [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 4,265.24 million yuan, with a growth rate of 33.05%. For 2023, revenue reached 5,957.28 million yuan, growing by 39.67%. Projections for 2024-2026 indicate revenues of 7,587.93 million yuan, 9,593.37 million yuan, and 11,868.22 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 27.37%, 26.43%, and 23.71% [3][10]. - The net profit for 2022 was 648.54 million yuan, increasing to 913.40 million yuan in 2023. Forecasts for net profit in 2024-2026 are 1,146.23 million yuan, 1,417.47 million yuan, and 1,789.54 million yuan, respectively [3][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.17 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.83 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][10]. Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully established a production base in Mexico, which began operations in July 2023, and is currently constructing a second phase for NEV structural components, expected to be operational by 2025 [1]. - The company’s inventory turnover days improved to 80 days in 2023, down from 97 days in 2022, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,970.39, up 1.06% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,870.36, up 1.99% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 1,685.12, up 2.06% [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 17,832.33, up 2.06% [1] Capital Market and Brokerage Industry - Capital market reforms and macroeconomic recovery trends are key drivers for the brokerage industry's value recovery [3] - Business model innovation is expected to open up new profit growth opportunities for brokerages [3] - M&A remains a major theme in the industry, with head institutions benefiting from innovative development models and external M&A trends [3] - Securities ETFs provide more investment options for the sector [3] Company Highlights - Beijing KERUI Electric won a bid for the 2024 Southern Power Grid distribution network equipment project, with an estimated contract value of 279 million yuan, accounting for 14.29% of its 2023 audited revenue [4] - Yiling Pharmaceutical received acceptance notice from NMPA for its new drug application of "Anilofos Injection" [45] - Ankai Bus expects to turn a profit in H1 2024, with net profit forecasted between 6.5-8.5 million yuan, compared to a loss of 66.1685 million yuan in the same period last year [46] - Yongshuntai expects H1 2024 net profit to grow 131.80%-200.07% YoY to 146-189 million yuan [103] Dairy Industry - Global milk prices are expected to remain volatile due to sufficient supply and weak demand [9] - China's dairy imports in Jan-May 2024 totaled 1.0946 million tons, down 15% YoY, with import value down 24.6% YoY [8] - Domestic milk prices continue to decline, with June 2024 average price at 3.30 yuan/kg, down 0.53% MoM and 13.55% YoY [77] - Capacity reduction efforts are showing initial results, with daily raw milk production reduced by 4,500 tons since March 2024 [53] Banking Sector - The banking sector PB ratio was 0.59x as of July 5, at the 40th percentile over the past five years [16] - Short-term interest rates declined, with DR001 and DR007 weekly averages down 22BP and 30BP respectively [17] - The sector is expected to benefit from deposit cost improvements and marginal asset quality enhancements [14] - High-dividend banking stocks are seen as attractive in the current low interest rate environment [14] Real Estate Market - 11 cities saw a 66.6% YoY increase in secondary housing sales area in early July [21] - Beijing and Shenzhen secondary housing sales grew 56.5% and 137.7% YoY respectively in early July [21] - 24 cities' cumulative new home sales area in 2024 (Jan 1-Jul 6) decreased 27.5% YoY [24] - A-share real estate index gained 0.81% in the past five trading days, outperforming the broader market [94] Energy Sector - IEA forecasts 2024 oil demand growth at 970,000 barrels/day, up from previous estimate of 960,000 barrels/day [6] - 2025 oil demand growth is projected at 980,000 barrels/day, slightly lower than previous estimate of 1 million barrels/day [6] Technology and Innovation - China successfully established the world's first 6G test network integrating communication and intelligence [41] - The 6G network demonstrates significant improvements in capacity, coverage, and efficiency [41] Machinery Industry - Hanbell Precise Machinery's vacuum pump revenue share increased from 5.07% in 2016 to 42.63% in 2023 [33] - The company is expected to benefit from refrigeration equipment updates, with potential market demand exceeding 35 million units [34] - Hanbell's gross margin improved from 32.63% in 2018 to 40.32% in 2023 [33] Regulatory Updates - CSRC suspended securities lending business and raised margin requirements for short selling [41] - The number of high-frequency trading accounts decreased by over 20% in 2024 [73]

非银行金融行业跟踪:强监管&推动 发展新质生产力,资本市场环境有 望持续优化 2024 年 7 月 11 日 看好/维持 非银行金融 行业报告 证券:7 月 1 日至 7 月 5 日一周市场日均成交额环比减少约 550 亿至 0.61 万 亿;两融余额(7 月 5 日)降至 1.47 万亿。继新"国九条"颁布后,多部门就 发展经济、优化资本市场的政策有序推出。证监会吴主席近期在多地调研中指 出,将抓紧研究谋划进一步全面深化资本市场改革的一揽子举措,其中包括加 快推进"科创板八条"落实落地;加快完善发行上市、信息披露、并购重组等 基础制度;着力推动实现违法违规"高成本",保持严监管强监管态势等。吴 主席还在资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"专题讨论会上指出,将推进"科创 十六条"、"科创板八条"各项举措落实落地,积极稳妥推动绿色金融、普惠金 融、养老金融、数字金融等涉及资本市场的相关制度优化和产品创新。此外, 为落实严监管强监管部署,证监会联合公安部、财政部、中国人民银行、金融 监管总局、国务院国资委制定了《关于进一步做好资本市场财务造假综合惩防 工作的意见》,从打击和遏制重点领域财务造假、优化证券监管执法体制机制 ...

非银行金融行业跟踪:强监管&推动 发展新质生产力,资本市场环境有 望持续优化 2024 年 7 月 11 日 看好/维持 非银行金融 行业报告 证券:7 月 1 日至 7 月 5 日一周市场日均成交额环比减少约 550 亿至 0.61 万 亿;两融余额(7 月 5 日)降至 1.47 万亿。继新"国九条"颁布后,多部门就 发展经济、优化资本市场的政策有序推出。证监会吴主席近期在多地调研中指 出,将抓紧研究谋划进一步全面深化资本市场改革的一揽子举措,其中包括加 快推进"科创板八条"落实落地;加快完善发行上市、信息披露、并购重组等 基础制度;着力推动实现违法违规"高成本",保持严监管强监管态势等。吴 主席还在资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"专题讨论会上指出,将推进"科创 十六条"、"科创板八条"各项举措落实落地,积极稳妥推动绿色金融、普惠金 融、养老金融、数字金融等涉及资本市场的相关制度优化和产品创新。此外, 为落实严监管强监管部署,证监会联合公安部、财政部、中国人民银行、金融 监管总局、国务院国资委制定了《关于进一步做好资本市场财务造假综合惩防 工作的意见》,从打击和遏制重点领域财务造假、优化证券监管执法体制机制 ...

食品饮料行业:国际奶价持续震荡, 国内奶价仍处下行周期 事件:2024 年 7 月 2 日,恒天然环球乳制品拍卖完成,全部产品(价格指数) 较上一轮拍卖价格下跌 6.9%,成交均价为 3782 美元/吨。本次交易全脂奶粉 竞得均价 3218 美元/公吨,较上一轮拍卖价格下跌 4.3%;脱脂奶粉均价 2586 美元/公吨,较上一轮拍卖价格下降 6.1%,黄油价格 6546 美元/公吨,较上一 轮拍卖价格下跌 10.2%,乳制品价格指数整体有所下降。 产季投放增加,受供需影响,国际奶价仍将震荡。从恒天然乳制品拍卖价格指 数来看,国际奶价较上期有所下降。从环比数据来看,进入产季投放阶段,各 品种均大幅度放量,对价格形成压力。从同比数据来看,供应稳定。从整体出 口国生产情况同比数据来看,阿根廷截止 24 年 4 月跌 14.5%;澳大利亚截至 24 年 4 月增 4.8%;新西兰截至 5 月同比跌 1.4%;欧盟 27 国截止 4 月年度产 量涨 1.1%;美国截止 5 月产量跌 0.20%;乌拉圭截止 5 月跌 2.3%;由于美国 和阿根廷产量不理想,全球供应幅度微增 0.2%,整体平稳。从需求国同比数 据来看,除 ...

证券行业:多措并举降低市场波动, 监管新政提振投资者信心 事件:7 月 10 日,证监会批准暂停转融券业务,提高融券保证金比例,进一 步强化融券逆周期调节。同日,证监会有关部门负责人就程序化交易监管进展 情况答记者问。 点评: 此次证监会进一步收紧转融券业务,是 2023 年下半年以来监管层对于降低融 券风险、平抑市场波动举措的延续。近年来权益市场波动持续增大,赚钱效应 显著减弱,投资者情绪陷入低谷,交易活跃度亦受到较大影响。针对上述情况, 监管层已先后提出多项政策举措,包括限制战略投资者配售股份出借,上调融 券保证金比例,降低转融券市场化约定申报证券划转效率,暂停新增转融券规 模等;同步要求证券公司加强对客户交易行为的管理,持续加大对利用融券交 易实施不当套利等违法违规行为的监管执法力度。根据证监会数据,自 2023 年 8 月各项严监管政策推出以来,至 2024 年 6 月底,融券、转融券规模累计 下降 64%、75%。融券规模占 A 股流通市值约 0.05%,每日融券卖出额占 A 股成交额的比例由 0.7%下降至 0.2%,对市场的影响明显减弱。但从近期较为 低迷的权益市场表现来看,政策呵护市场的效果尚 ...

Investment Rating - Strong Buy/Initiation: The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Hanbell Precise Machinery (002158 SZ) with a target PE of 9x for 2024 [7] Core Views - Vacuum pump revenue share increased from 5 07% in 2016 to 42 63% in 2023, driving brand recognition and differentiation [1] - Gross margin rose from 32 63% in 2018 to 40 32% in 2023, with net margin following suit [1] - ROE grew from 6 80% in 2017 to 25 07% in 2023, supported by improved asset turnover [1] - Heat pump market growth driven by 340 billion RMB central budget for air pollution control in 2024 [2] - Compressor business revenue growth correlates with air-source heat pump sales growth [2] Financial Projections - Revenue expected to grow from 3 85 billion RMB in 2023 to 5 81 billion RMB in 2026, with 14 9% YoY growth in 2026 [5] - Net profit projected to increase from 865 million RMB in 2023 to 1 33 billion RMB in 2026 [5] - EPS forecasted to rise from 1 62 RMB in 2023 to 2 48 RMB in 2026 [5] - PE ratio expected to decline from 9 98x in 2023 to 6 51x in 2026 [5] Business Overview - Core products include commercial central air conditioning compressors, refrigeration compressors, heat pump compressors, air compressors, and vacuum pumps [3] - Recognized as a national key new product enterprise and among China's top 100 manufacturing companies [3] - Market cap of 8 32 billion RMB with 53 47 million shares outstanding [3] Industry Dynamics - 35 million units of commercial refrigeration equipment expected to be replaced under new energy efficiency standards [6] - Domestic screw compressor market share only 20 22% in 2020, compared to 80% in developed countries [145] - Dry oil-free screw compressor penetration rate below 1% in China vs 35% in developed markets [148] - Heat pump sales expected to rebound with 340 billion RMB central budget for air pollution control [151] Competitive Advantages - Strong R&D capabilities with proprietary 5 6 asymmetric rotor tooth profile [69] - Complete product matrix covering central air conditioning, refrigeration, heat pumps, air compressors, and vacuum pumps [60] - Efficient capital allocation with long-term equity investments increasing from 0 19% in 2016 to 2 91% in 2023 [57] - Consistent dividend payout with cumulative dividend ratio of 43 23% from 2007 to 2024 [57]

食品饮料行业:白酒消费税改革的 思考 消费税改革传闻又起。6 月 25 日发布的《国务院关于 2023 年度中央预算 执行和其他财政收支的审计工作报告》明确提出"谋划新一轮财税体制改革, 完善中央与地方财政事权和支出责任划分"。以调整中央和地方税收收入来源 的消费税改革再被市场关注,并引起近期白酒板块波动。 白酒消费税改革可能的方向?白酒行业的消费税改革包括征收环节、征税范围 等方面,在过去 10 多年政策文件中多有提及,根据 2019 年发布的《实施更 大规模减税降费后调整中央与地方收入划分改革推进方案》,白酒消费税改革 主要后移征税环节,即在征管可控的前提下,将部分在生产(进口)环节征收 的现行消费税品目逐步后移至批发或零售环节征收。 白酒消费税影响几何?白酒行业消费税目前在生产环节征收,执行从价计征和 从量计征复合计税法,其中从价计征是以白酒销售公司最后一级售价即白酒出 厂价的 60%为计税标准,税率 20%。同时执行从量征收,按照每斤 0.5 元征 收消费税。此次白酒消费税改革如果后移征税环节,则意味着计税标准或由出 厂价改为零售价,消费税整体的税负水平将会提高。 白酒消费税税负谁来承担?从可能的方案 ...