行 业 研 究 证券行业：新“国九条”推动监管 2024年4月15日 看好/维持 细化升级，资本市场生态望迎质变 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 证 事件：国务院印发《关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 见》，简称新“国九条”；随后为贯彻落实新“国九条”及配套政策，证监会就 无 股 涉及发行监管、上市公司监管、证券公司监管、交易监管等方面六条规则草案 资料来源：恒生聚源 份 公开征求意见；沪深北交易所同步就《股票发行上市审核规则》、《股票发行上 行业基本资料 占比% 有 市规则》等19项具体业务规则向全社会公开征求意见。 股票家数 83 1.8% 限 公 新“国九条”是继 2014 年后时隔 10 年国务院再次专门出台的资本市场指导 行业市值(亿元) 50277.78 6.0% 司 性文件，分阶段规划了未来5年、2035年、本世纪中叶资本市场高质量发展 流通市值(亿元) 39029.79 5.83% 证 的目标，系统提出了强监管、防风险、促高质量发展的一揽子政策措施。新“国 行业平均市盈率 15.58 / 券 九条”中延续了年初以来监管层对资本市场全流程的全方位细化 ...

东 兴 策 略 周期板块估值上升 分析师 孙涤 联系方式：010-66555181 执业证书编号：S1480523040001 2024年4月10日 本报告拟从全球重要指数估值和A股指数风险溢价、行业估值的变化来审视当前市场估值情况。 上周（4/1-4/5）大类行业中，原材料、资源能源等7个行业估值上升，科技、工业服务等行业估值下降。原材料(PE(TTM): 4.09%;PB:4.1%)升幅最大， 资源能源(PE(TTM):3.38%;PB:3.4%)、交通运输(PE(TTM):2.25%;PB:2.12%)升幅居前；科技(PE(TTM):-1.39%;PB:-1.52%)降幅最大。上周（4/1-4/5）中 信一级行业PE(TTM)中，周期板块估值升幅最大。其中，有色金属（6.05%）升幅最大，基础化工（4.51%）、钢铁（4.01%）升幅居前。其余板块估 值来看，消费板块估值上升，其中轻工制造（3.3%）升幅最大，商贸零售（3.06%）、纺织服装（3.01%）升幅居前；成长板块估值下降，其中计算机 （-3.04%）降幅最大，传媒（-2%）、国防军工（-1.56%）降幅居前。 风险提示：数据统计可能存在误差。 ...

（分析师：刘嘉玮 执业编码：S1480519050001 电话：010-66554043） 【东兴银行】银行行业：社融同比少增，信贷需求仍较弱——2 月社融金融数据点评（20240318） 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 投资建议：建议布局高成长优质区域小行和高股息稳健国有大行。展望 2024 年，从资本补充、资产负债表健 康性与可持续信用扩张角度看，行业息差收窄压力或逐步缩小。尽管当前有效融资需求仍然偏弱，但在提振实 体经济的各项政策协同加码之下，行业仍可延续以量补价稳健经营。行业盈利增速和盈利水平有望维持平稳。 而当前上市行整体估值仍处历史低位，安全边际较高。量、价、质任一方面的边际积极变化均有望带来估值提 升机会。结合当前市场环境、个股估值和盈利水平，我们建议布局高股息稳健国有大行和高成长优质区域小行。 行业销售：新房销售继续下行。从数据来看，26 城商品房年内累计销售面积（1.1~3.17）同比增速为-31.95%， 对应前值（1.1~3.10）为-30.33%。其中一线城市(4 城)年内累计销售面积（1.1~3.17）同比增速为-32.14%， 对应前值（1.1~3.10）为-30 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, with a target price of 2101 CNY, reflecting a valuation of 30 times earnings [24]. Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai achieved a revenue of 150.56 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.04%, and a net profit of 74.73 billion CNY, up 19.16% year-on-year [8]. - The company’s direct sales revenue reached 67.23 billion CNY in 2023, with a direct sales ratio of 45.52%, an increase of 5.37 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the i Moutai platform [2][8]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 15% for 2024, supported by price adjustments and continued growth in non-standard products and direct sales channels [24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Moutai liquor generated 126.59 billion CNY in revenue, a 17.39% increase, with sales volume reaching 42,100 tons, up 11.1% year-on-year [8]. - The gross profit margin for the company was 91.96% in 2023, with a slight increase from the previous year [24]. Sales Channels - The i Moutai platform contributed significantly to the revenue growth, achieving 22.37 billion CNY in 2023, a remarkable 88.29% increase year-on-year [2]. Future Projections - The report projects that Guizhou Moutai will achieve a revenue of 173.29 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 87.98 billion CNY, corresponding to an EPS of 70.04 CNY [12][24].

东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 盈利端稳定性强。我们预计 2024 年国有大行利润增速有望维持平稳。（1）国 有大行在逆周期调节要求下，将继续发挥头雁作用，维持贷款增速较快增长。 （2）尽管资产端收益率预计进一步下行，但随着负债端政策红利持续释放， 息差收窄压力将得以缓释，有望以量补价支撑营收平稳增长。（3）考虑地方 化债积极推进、地产信用风险在以时间换空间的方式稳步出清，预计大行资 产质量平稳运行，拨备抵补能力充足，可抵补支撑盈利平稳增长。（4）从资 本角度看，在 G-SIBs 和 TLAC 达标要求，以及 RWA 较快增长的背景下，国 有大行保持净利润增长和内生资本稳定补充的必要性上升。 后市展望：多因素支撑下，估值修复可期。当前银行板块估值仍处于历史底 部，与稳健盈利水平、资产质量不匹配。2023 年以来，在中特估、维稳市场 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|-------|----------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 名称 | | | 价 ...

公 司 研 究 伟星新材（002372.SZ）：市占率逆 2024年4月10日 强烈推荐/维持 势向上，现金牛分红提升 东 伟星新材 公司报告 兴 证 券 公司简介： 股 公司是国内 PP-R 管道的技术先驱与龙头的 份 伟星新材2023年实现营业收入63.78亿元，同比下降8.27%；归属于母公司 品牌企业。产品分为三大系列：一是PPR系 有 所有者的净利润为14.32亿元，同比增长10.40%，扣非后归母净利润为12.75 列管材管件，用于建筑内冷热给水；二是PE 限 亿元，同比增长0.35%，实现EPS为0.90元。 系列管材管件，用于市政供水、采暖、燃气、 排水排污等领域；三是PVC系列管材管件， 公 点评： 用于排水排污、电力护套等领域。 司 需求低迷销量下降致营收下滑，但毛利率水平向上。2023年塑料管行业低迷， 资料来源：公司公告、iFinD 证 券 企业停产、转产和破产有所增加。公司的管道销量同比下降9.53%，使得营业 未来3-6个月重大事项提示： 研 收入同比出现下滑。 但是 2023 年公司的综合毛利率水平反而逆势向上达到 无 44.32%，同比提高4.56个百分点，主要是直接材料和制造 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Shenhua [2][9] Core Views - The company is expected to continue high cash dividends, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.26 CNY per share, totaling 44.903 billion CNY, which represents 75.2% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, a 2.4 percentage point increase year-on-year [9] - The coal and power joint operation model is deepening, with significant growth in coal production and sales, and an expected increase in capacity from new projects [9] - The company’s net profit for 2023 was 59.694 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.3% year-on-year, while the average coal sales price fell by 9.3% to 584 CNY per ton [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 343.074 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 59.694 billion CNY, down 14.3% [2][10] - The average net asset return rate was 14.6%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [10] Coal Division - The average coal sales price (excluding tax) was 584 CNY per ton, down 9.3% year-on-year, while coal sales volume increased by 7.7% to 450 million tons [3] - The coal division's revenue was 273.306 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, primarily due to falling sales prices and rising production costs [3] Power Generation Division - Total power generation increased by 11.0% to 212.26 billion kWh, with sales volume rising by 11.1% to 199.75 billion kWh [3] - The revenue from the power generation division was 92.407 billion CNY, up 9.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points [3] Transportation and Coal Chemical Divisions - The transportation division saw a revenue increase of 1.8% to 42.961 billion CNY, while the coal chemical division's revenue decreased by 4.4% to 6.098 billion CNY [4] - The transportation division's operating costs rose by 9.5%, impacting the gross margin across all business segments [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 11 billion CNY in new coal mining projects, with an expected production capacity of 16 million tons per year [9] - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to reach 60.316 billion CNY, 60.659 billion CNY, and 64.075 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.04 CNY, 3.05 CNY, and 3.22 CNY [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for CNOOC Services (601808.SH) [6] Core Views - CNOOC Services reported a revenue of RMB 44.109 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.013 billion, up 27.75% year-on-year [1][2] - The drilling services segment is recovering due to increased upstream capital expenditures, with a projected increase in performance [1][2] - The oilfield technical services segment, which accounted for 58.4% of total revenue in 2023, saw a revenue increase of RMB 25.6 billion, a growth of 31.4% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Drilling Services - The drilling services segment is experiencing recovery driven by upstream capital expenditures, with a significant increase in operational days to 17,726, up 6.0% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from drilling services reached RMB 12.07 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.6% [1][2] Oilfield Technical Services - This segment is the largest revenue contributor, achieving RMB 25.76 billion in 2023, an increase of RMB 6.16 billion year-on-year [1][2] - The company has made significant investments in technology R&D, leading to innovations recognized in the industry [1] Ship Services and Geophysical Exploration - Ship services generated RMB 3.94 billion in revenue, a 5.9% increase from RMB 3.73 billion in 2022 [2] - Geophysical exploration and engineering services reported revenue of RMB 2.34 billion, up 17.7% from RMB 1.99 billion in 2022 [2] Profitability - The company's net profit for 2023 was RMB 3.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.35% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 7.2%, up 21.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.0%, reflecting a 29.4% increase [2] Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 3.89 billion, RMB 4.61 billion, and RMB 5.56 billion respectively [2][7]

宏 观 研 究 2024 年 4 月 10 日 宏观经济 事件点评 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 降息仍由通胀主导，年内降息概率略有下 降 ——美国 3 月非农数据点评 事件： 美国 3 月季调后非农就业增 30.3 万，预期 21.4 万，前值 27.5 万；失业率 3.8%，预期 3.8%，前值 3.9%。 主要观点： 1、 就业紧绷程度进一步下降，非常接近疫情前的高位，二季度非农总量无忧。 2、 就业主力医疗和政府为非周期性行业，扣除后非农环比新增较为低迷。 3、 美联储降息的诉求是在经济不出现衰退的前提下，政策利率能够匹配回落的通胀水平，即从限制性区域回落至略微限制 ~中性利率的区间，因此降息仍由通胀主导。 4、 降息最佳窗口为 5 月至三季度中期，但 5 月几无可能，降息窗口很窄，降息幅度进一步下降，由 50bp 降至 50~25bp。 5、 维持美国十年期国债利率下限 3.65~3.85%，上限 4.35~4.6%；美股维持短期没有明显风险点，长期中性。 就业紧绷程度进一步下降，二季度非农总量 ...

公 司 研 究 分析师：曹奕丰 021-25102904 caoyf_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号： S1480519050005 北京首都机场股份（00694.HK）：成本 管控到位，收入端有待国际客运恢复 事件：2023 年公司实现营收 45.59 亿元，同比增长 104.3%，其中航空性收入 20.97 亿元，同比增长 195.0%，非航收入 24.62 亿元，同比增长 61.9%。公 司税后净亏损为 16.97 亿元，较去年同期的 35.27 亿元减少 51.9%。 吞吐量回升带动航空与非航收入增长：23 年公司旅客吞吐量为 5288 万人次， 相当于 19 年同期的 53.0%，其中国内航线（不含港澳台）4520 万人次，同比 增长 269.0%，相当于 19 年同期的 62.7%，国际航线 618 万人次，同比增长 2359.6%，相当于 19 年同期的 25.8%。考虑到大兴机场的分流影响，我们认 为首都机场的国内旅客吞吐量已经得到了较好的恢复，后续增速会明显放缓。 今年 1-2 月，首都机场国际旅客量分别相当于 19 年同期的 43.4%和 49.5%， 因此预计今年国际吞吐量 ...