行 业 研 究 房地产周报 20240401：新房及二手 2024年4月2日 看好/维持 房销售继续走弱，北京取消离婚限 东 房地产 行业报告 兴 购政策 证 券 股 份 市场行情：本周A股地产板块表现弱于大盘、H股地产板块表现强于大盘。本 未来3-6个月行业大事： 有 周（3.25-3.29）A股房地产指数（801180.SL）涨幅-1.74%（上周-1.33%）， 2024年4月中旬，统计局公布3月房地产数 限 A股中证A股指数（930903.CSI）涨幅-1.38%（上周-0.03%）；H股（3.25-3.28） 据。 公 恒生地产及物业管理指数（HSPDM.HK）涨幅0.25%（上周-1.32%），H股恒 资料来源：国家统计局 行业基本资料 占比% 司 生指数（HSI.HK）涨幅0.00%（上周-4.23%）。 证 股票家数 118 2.56% 行业销售：新房销售维持弱势。从数据来看，26 城商品房年内累计销售面积 券 （1.1~3.31）同比增速为-33.21%，对应前值（1.1~3.24）为-33.96%。其中一 行业市值(亿元) 11881.88 1.4% 研 线城市(4 城) 年内累计销售面积 ...

行 业 研 究 百强房企 1-3 月销售数据点评：百 2024年4月2日 看好/维持 强房企销售金额同比下滑 49%，市 东 房地产 行业报告 兴 场需求持续低迷 证 券 股 份 全口径销售额top100： 未来3-6个月行业大事： 有 根据克而瑞的数据，2023年1-3月top100房企销售金额持续下滑，市场需求 2024年4月中旬，统计局公布3月房地产数 限 据 继续低迷。1-3 月，top100 房企仅实现销售金额（全口径）8464.5 亿元，同 公 资料来源：国家统计局 比增速为-49.1%；1-2 月同比增速为-50.5%。1-3 月，top50、top30、top20 行业基本资料 占比% 司 和top10房企的销售金额（全口径）同比增速分别为-48.9%、-48.2%、-47.2%、 证 股票家数 118 2.56% -43.7%。尽管行业政策面不断向好，但市场信心的修复尚需时日。房企销售持 券 续承压之下，自身造血能力不足，流动性仍将面临压力。 行业市值(亿元) 11881.88 1.4% 研 流通市值(亿元) 10884.7 1.61% 究 重点房企销售： 行业平均市盈率 -48.62 / ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance has been pressured by a downturn in the chemical industry, leading to a decline in revenue and profit [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is advancing its dual-base project development, which is expected to support long-term growth [2]. - The company has reported a total revenue of 27.26 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%, and a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's main product prices have declined, resulting in a drop in overall performance. Although sales volumes for key segments such as new energy materials and organic amines increased by 20.2% and 8.8% respectively, revenue growth was hindered by price declines [2]. - The revenue growth rates for segments like new energy materials, organic amines, fertilizers, and acetic acid were 5.61%, -55.38%, 2.86%, and -2.59% respectively [2]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 8 percentage points to 20.85% [2]. Project Development and Future Outlook - The company is leveraging clean coal gasification technology and a flexible multi-product production model to enhance resource utilization and expand its product chain [2]. - The company is implementing new projects and upgrading existing ones at its Dezhou base while simultaneously developing a second base in Jingzhou, which is expected to open new growth avenues [2]. - The first phase of the Jingzhou base project has been completed and is operational, while new projects in Dezhou are also progressing well [2]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 4.68 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 6.74 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.20 yuan, 2.66 yuan, and 3.17 yuan [3][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][9].

公 司 研 究 赤峰黄金（600988.SH）：降本增效 2024年4月2日 推荐/维持 有效实施，矿金产出仍具高成长性 东 赤峰黄金 公司报告 兴 ——赤峰黄金（600988）2023 年报点评 证 券 事件：公司发布2023年度报告。公司2023实现营业收入72.2亿元，同比增 公司简介： 股 15.23%；实现归母净利润8.04亿元，同比增长78.2%；基本每股收益+81.48% 份 公司主营业务为黄金、有色金属采选及资源 至0.49元。其中2023Q4公司营收及净利分别达到21.59亿元及2.84亿元， 有 综合回收利用业务，主要通过下属子公司开 占全年比例分别为29.9%及35.3%。矿山框选能力提升、降本增效策略的有效 限 展，贯彻“以金为主”的发展战略。子公司 实施叠加黄金价格中枢的持续攀升推动公司业绩规模放大。 公 吉隆矿业、华泰矿业、五龙矿业从事黄金采 司 公司是国内最专注黄金探采选的一体化矿业公司：公司是黄金行业探采选一 选业务；子公司瀚丰矿业从事锌、铅、铜、 体化矿山企业，主营业务为黄金及有色金属采选，主要产品为矿产金、电解铜 钼采选业务；位于老挝的万象矿业目前主要 证 券 及其他有色金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) due to the continuous recovery of international routes and the company's significant earnings elasticity [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 141.1 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 166.7%, with a reduced net loss of 3.18 billion yuan compared to a loss of 39.18 billion yuan in the previous year [5][6]. - The recovery in civil aviation operations has led to a substantial reduction in losses, with a decrease of over 30 billion yuan compared to 2022, primarily due to the normalization of industry operations [5][6]. - Domestic route capacity increased by 127.3% and international route capacity surged by 916.6% year-on-year, reflecting a strong recovery in demand [5][6]. - The passenger load factor improved significantly, with domestic routes increasing by 10.2 percentage points to 74.5% and international routes rising by 23.5 percentage points to 67.7% [5][6]. - The company’s unit cost has improved significantly, with the unit ASK excluding fuel costs at 0.298 yuan, down from 0.624 yuan in the previous year [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 171.2 billion yuan, 183.9 billion yuan, and 192.9 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 21.33%, 7.41%, and 4.93% [7][8]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 7.17 billion yuan, 11.94 billion yuan, and 14.16 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.44 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 0.87 yuan [7][8]. - The net asset return rate is expected to improve significantly, reaching 16.14% in 2024 and stabilizing around 20% in the following years [7][8]. Industry Context - The report highlights that the international route capacity has recovered to about 70% of the levels seen in 2019, indicating a strong rebound in the aviation sector [6][8]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery of international routes, which is expected to enhance its profitability further [6][8].

行 业 研 究 银行业跟踪：行业盈利增速承压的预期 2024年3月25日 看好/维持 充分，继续看好高股息标的配置价值 东 银行 行业报告 兴 证  投资建议：建议布局高成长优质区域小行和高股息稳健国有大行。 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 4月：上市银行披露年报、一季报 股 从规模来看，行业信贷新增结构显示对公强、零售弱的部门融资特点。 份 在房地产销售持续低迷背景下，预计今年各类行规模增长延续分化， 资料来源：iFinD、东兴证券研究所 有 国有大行和部分区域行增速领先。从息差角度看，资产端存量和增量 行业基本资料 占比% 限 定价继续下行，负债端存款到期重定价红利亦会逐步释放，整体息差 公 收窄压力或好于上年。从资产质量角度看，房地产领域不良风险暴露 股票家数 50 1.09% 司 或行至中期，且上市行不良贷款拨备计提较充分，风险较可控；地方 行业市值(亿元) 109164.94 12.67% 证 政府平台风险或逐步体现为相关资产利率下调，以时间换空间缓释压 流通市值(亿元) 74418.68 10.82% 券 力；年报显示个人消费类贷款、经营性贷款不良生成压力有所上行， 行业平均市盈率 5.26 / ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating of GAC Group to "Recommended" [2][3][15] Core Views - GAC Group's revenue increased by 17.76% year-on-year to CNY 12,875.73 million in 2023, driven by a significant rise in self-owned vehicle sales, which grew by 39.9% [2][3] - Despite the revenue growth, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 45.11% to CNY 442.89 million due to intensified market competition affecting profit margins [2][3] - The company completed the restructuring of GAC Mitsubishi, which is expected to stabilize investment income from joint ventures despite declining sales in GAC Toyota and GAC Honda [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, GAC Aion's sales reached 480,003 units, up 77.02%, while GAC Passenger Cars sold 406,505 units, a 12.12% increase [2] - The overall gross margin for the company was 6.9%, slightly down from 7.0% in 2022, with a stable expense ratio of 9.5% [2][5] - Investment income fell to approximately CNY 8.66 billion, a 39.5% decline year-on-year, with joint venture income dropping by 41% [2][5] Future Outlook - The report forecasts GAC Group's net profit for 2024-2026 to be CNY 4.87 billion, CNY 5.63 billion, and CNY 6.59 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.46, CNY 0.54, and CNY 0.63 [2][5] - The company plans to repurchase shares, indicating confidence in future growth, with a commitment to distribute at least 10% of annual distributable profits as cash dividends over the next three years [2][3] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19, 17, and 14 respectively, based on the closing price of A shares on March 29, 2024 [2][5] - The report highlights that the self-owned segment has begun to recover, while GAC's joint ventures still hold advantages in the fuel and hybrid vehicle markets [2][3]

行 业 研 究 非银行金融行业跟踪：投资类业务 2024年4月1日 看好/维持 表现仍是当前行业业绩的主导因素 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 证 证券：本周日均成交额环比减少约 1400亿至 0.94万亿；两融余额（3月 28 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 日，周四）微降至1.54万亿。中证协发布证券公司2023年度经营数据。数据 无 股 显示，145家证券公司2023年度实现营业收入4059.02亿元，同比增长2.77%； 行业基本资料 占比% 份 净利润1378.33亿元，同比下降3.14%。2023年，行业进一步夯实资本实力， 有 股票家数 83 1.8% 年末总资产11.83万亿元，较2022年末增长6.96%；净资产2.95万亿元，较 限 行业市值(亿元) 53228.34 6.27% 2022年末增长5.73%；净资本2.18万亿元，较2022年末增长4.31%。2023 公 年证券行业ROE为4.67%，较2022年下降0.43个百分点。整体上看，证券 流通市值(亿元) 41210.12 6.09% 司 证 行业2023年显现出增收不增利的问题，是基于权益市场持续大幅波动的背景 行业平均市盈率 ...

公 司 研 究 康斯特（300445.SZ）：国内营收高 增，盈利能力提升 毛利率、净利率均实现提升。2023 年公司三大主营产品：数字压力检测产品 收入 36,121.76 万元，同比增长 21.8%，营业收入占比 72.49%（+0.84pct）， 毛利率 73.19%（-0.27pct）；温湿度检测产品收入 7,803.15 万元，同比增长 11.7%，营业收入占比 15.66%（-1.22pct），毛利率 55.78%（+0.32pct）；过 程信号检测产品收入 2,867.59 万元，同比增长 21.1%，营业收入占比 5.75% （+0.03pct），毛利率 71.11%（+0.33pct）。公司主要产品毛利率保持稳定，且 高毛利产品数字压力检测和过程信号产品收入高增，带动公司毛利率整体提 升。2023 年四季度（单季度）公司销售费用、管理费用、研发费用占比分别 为 23.06%、8.75%、11.15%，相比 2022 年同期下降 1.12pct、1.16pct、6.71pct。 2023 年销售净利率较 2022 年提升 2.03pct 至 20.35%。 国内市场高增长，国际市场保持韧性。国 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the strong attractiveness of high dividend yields in the current macro environment characterized by low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates, with the banking sector's dividend yield at 5.29%, which is historically high [2][4] - State-owned banks have an average dividend yield of 5.35%, exceeding the 10-year government bond yield by over 300 basis points, indicating their strong investment value in a declining interest rate environment [2][4] - The stability of dividends from state-owned banks is emphasized, with a consistent payout ratio of around 30% over the past five years, ensuring reliable returns for investors [2][4] Group 2 - The report asserts that the profitability of state-owned banks is highly stable, supported by multiple favorable factors including strong dividend appeal, low institutional positioning, and policy backing from the central government [6][4] - As of March 1, the price-to-book ratio for state-owned banks has improved to 0.59, reflecting a recovery in valuations since the low point at the end of 2022 [4][6] - The report notes that the central government's financial work conference has explicitly stated support for enhancing the strength and quality of large state-owned financial institutions, providing a favorable policy backdrop [6][4] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a new driving force for productivity, distinguishing it from traditional productivity by its high technological content and innovation-driven nature [8][27] - AI is increasingly recognized as a key area of global technological competition, with government policies now explicitly supporting its development, particularly in state-owned enterprises [8][27] - The report anticipates that sectors such as education, healthcare, and legal services will benefit from advancements in AI, driven by increased investment and application in these fields [27][8] Group 4 - The report indicates that the securities sector is currently experiencing a significant policy window following the recent government meetings, with a focus on wealth management and investment business performance in the recovering equity market [18][21] - The implementation of a comprehensive registration system is expected to lead to a surge in investment banking activities, presenting a long-term growth opportunity for the securities industry [18][21] - The report highlights that the current low allocation of bank stocks by domestic institutions suggests substantial room for increased investment, particularly as central financial institutions begin to inject capital into the sector [21][18]