Group 1: AI Industry Insights - The release of high-performance models like Claude 3, Sora, and Gemini 1.5 indicates a shift towards multimodal capabilities in AI, enhancing the industry's demand for data and computing power [1] - The performance of Claude 3 Opus has surpassed that of OpenAI's GPT-4 and Google's Gemini Ultra in various benchmarks, particularly in undergraduate knowledge and reasoning [1] - The AI industry is expected to see significant advancements in traditional sectors such as education, healthcare, and law, driven by the ongoing development of AI technologies [7] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The profitability of state-owned banks is projected to remain stable, with expectations of steady profit growth in 2024, supported by rapid loan growth and easing pressure on interest margins [16][23] - The current dividend yield for the banking sector stands at 5.29%, making it an attractive option for high-dividend investment strategies [10] - Institutional investment in the banking sector is currently low, indicating potential for increased allocations as market conditions stabilize [11][23] Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The government has emphasized the importance of developing a modern industrial system, with a focus on AI and big data as key drivers of economic growth [15][17] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates, which enhances the appeal of high-dividend investments [10] - The ongoing recovery of the economy is expected to boost consumer demand, particularly in the food and beverage sector, as policies aimed at increasing income and consumption take effect [32][33]

公 司 研 究 安迪苏（600299.SH）：业绩短期承 2024年3月29日 强烈推荐/维持 压，产能持续扩张巩固龙头地位 东 安迪苏 公司报告 兴 证 券 安迪苏发布2023年年报：全年实现营业收入为131.84亿元，YoY-9.26%，归 公司简介： 股 母净利润为0.52亿元，YoY-95.82%，EPS为0.02元。公司拟每10股派发现 安迪苏于 2006 年被中国蓝星集团收购，于 份 金红利0.6元（含税）。 2015 年借壳蓝星集团旗下的蓝星新材在 A 有 股上市。公司是全球第二大蛋氨酸生产商， 限 受到产品销售价格下滑，以及原材料、能源成本上升的双重挤压，公司业绩下 可同时提供固体蛋氨酸和液体蛋氨酸，是动 公 滑。从收入端看，2023年公司主要产品蛋氨酸市场均价同比2022年有所下滑， 物营养与健康行业的全球领军企业。 资料来源：公司公告、东兴证券研究所 司 导致公司营收小幅下滑。从利润端看，公司毛利率受到产品价格下滑的影响同 交易数据 比下滑7个百分点至21%，同时也受到资产减值和相关重组成本的影响（其中 证 券 主要由于 Commentry 固体蛋氨酸生产线，Innov’ia 的老旧工厂以 ...

宏观：美国通胀仍有粘性，降息窗口较窄 我们关于降息节奏的观点逐步得到印证：即最早不会早于 5 月。维持若要避免后期过早衰退，停留在 5.25% 上方的时间不宜过长的观点。关于降息节点，1、2 月非农和通胀均较强，一季度降息可能不大已被市场接受， 目前市场预期首次降息为 6 月。无论劳动力市场还是房地产市场，虽有所缓和但仍处于紧绷状态，叠加拜登政 府推出的基建法案，建筑业也进入相对繁荣期，过早降息可能会引起后期通胀反弹。降息时间节点可以参考核 心 CPI 环比跌落当前 0.3%这一平台的时间点，比如连续 2 个月不高于 0.2%。 关于降息幅度：首先考虑降息 50bp，更多降息需后续数据支持。近期鲍威尔表示降息临近，认为目前的政策 利率水平明显高于中性利率水平。我们在 2020 年疫情开始时就提出，随着地产周期复苏，中性利率可能有所 抬升，即目前的政策利率水平虽处于限制性区域，但可能离中性利率并不太远。鉴于地产市场已摆脱 08 年次 贷危机阴影，恢复了对利率的敏感度，当前地产市场处于紧平衡状态，而非疲软。这意味着也不能快速降息太 多，目前市场对降息幅度预期过于乐观。当经济特别是地产开始恢复对利率的敏感度时，降息 ...

首 席 观 点 康明怡 | 东兴证券宏观分析师 S1480519090001，021-25102911，kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 基本面方面，GDP 和失业率均不支持降息，降息的唯一动力来自通胀。2 月 CPI 同比 3.2%， 已有 9 个月落入 2~3.8%这一历史正常区间，2 月通胀虽略超预期，但并未打破下降趋势。若 往后环比不超过 0.3%，则同比将稳定在这一区间内，可以小幅降息。核心 CPI 类似，但尚未 落回历史正常区间，核心 CPI 一般略滞后于 CPI，还需耐心等待。若通胀控制得当，根据 2000~2006 年的经验，最终可以尝试降息到 3.25~3.5%附近，但首轮降息我们仍暂时先看 50bp。 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 首席周观点：2024 年第 13 周2024 年 3 月 29 日 首席观点 周度观点 点阵图有边际改变。鲍威尔发言基本延续去年 12 月的基调，认为通胀正在逐渐下降，近 2 个月的数据没有改变他对通胀的看法。市场对本次 FOMC 会议以及鲍威尔发言解读为偏鸽。 从点阵图来看，虽继续保持年内降息 75bp 的中位数，但反映出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [2][4]. Core Insights - Oil prices continue to rise, with Brent and WTI crude futures prices increasing by 3.52% and 4.31% respectively as of March 20, with Brent at $85.95 per barrel and WTI at $81.27 per barrel [2][4]. - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have increased by 1.30% month-on-month, reaching 4214 RMB per ton [2][36]. - The report highlights a decrease in U.S. refinery crude oil production, while the supply of petroleum products has increased [3][18]. Supply and Demand - As of March 20, U.S. refinery crude oil production was 14.91 million barrels per day, down 6.29% month-on-month [18]. - China's natural gas cumulative production increased by 2.10% month-on-month, totaling 452,200 tons [42]. - OPEC crude oil production slightly increased by 0.77% month-on-month, reaching 26,571 thousand barrels per day [16]. Prices - Brent crude spot price rose by 6.12% month-on-month, reaching $87.38 per barrel, while WTI spot price increased by 7.39% to $82.73 per barrel [7][10]. - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices increased by 1.30% month-on-month, while U.S. NYMEX natural gas futures prices decreased by 4.71% [36][38]. Inventory - As of March 15, U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories decreased by 1.05% month-on-month, totaling 1,574,253 thousand barrels [27]. - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased by 2.59% month-on-month, totaling 112,515 thousand barrels [44]. - European natural gas inventory decreased by 8.15% month-on-month, totaling 676.65 TWh [44]. Imports and Exports - U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 1.01% month-on-month, totaling 6,344 thousand barrels per day [31]. - European natural gas cumulative imports increased by 7.26% month-on-month, totaling 18,073 million cubic meters [48].

Group 1 - The insurance sector is expected to see an overall increase in demand due to enhanced consumer awareness, recovery in consumption trends, and a growing need for asset preservation [2] - The downtrend in deposit rates is likely to highlight the comparative advantages of savings-type insurance products, potentially leading to a small peak in sales [2] - The collaboration between life and property insurance is anticipated to drive steady recovery in the operational performance and valuation of insurance companies in 2024 [2] Group 2 - The corporate deposits decreased by 2.99 trillion yuan in February, while household deposits increased by 3.2 trillion yuan, indicating a seasonal effect related to the Spring Festival [3] - The M1 growth rate returned to a low level of 1.2% year-on-year, reflecting insufficient liquidity and weak corporate investment intentions [3] Group 3 - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable profit growth in 2024, supported by the rapid growth of loans and the release of policy dividends on the liability side [16][20] - The average dividend yield for state-owned banks is currently at 5.35%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [41] - The valuation of state-owned banks has seen a recovery, with the price-to-book ratio increasing to 0.59 times as of March 1, 2024, compared to the low point at the end of 2022 [20] Group 4 - The social financing growth rate has decreased, with a total of 8.06 trillion yuan added in the first two months, which is 1.1 trillion yuan less than the previous year [10] - The weak demand for credit and slow issuance of government bonds are contributing factors to the decline in social financing growth [10] Group 5 - The artificial intelligence sector is expected to become a significant driver of new productive forces, with government policies increasingly supporting its development [26][30] - The release of high-performance models like Claude 3 indicates a trend towards multi-modal capabilities, which may reshape the competitive landscape in the AI industry [28][30] Group 6 - The food and beverage industry is projected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and increased consumer spending, particularly in cyclical segments like liquor [62][86] - The government's focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing consumption is expected to further stimulate growth in the food and beverage sector [62][86]

东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 安道麦发布 2023 年年报：全年实现营业收入为 327.79 亿元，YoY-12.31%， 归母净利润为-16.06 亿元。 公司盈利预测及投资评级：公司作为全球非专利农药龙头企业，差异化的产品 组合助推业务增长，叠加受益先正达集团内部协同，我们看好公司长期发展前 景。基于公司 2023 年年报，我们相应调整公司 2024~2026 年盈利预测。我们 预测公司 2024~2026 年净利润分别为 2.56、4.95 和 6.73 亿元，对应 EPS 分 别为 0.11、0.21 和 0.29 元，当前股价对应 P/E 值分别为 53、28 和 20 倍。维 持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；产品价格大幅下滑；新产品注册登记进展不及 预期。 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------| | 交易数据 | | | 52 周股价区间（元） | 10.11-5.3 | | 总市值（亿元） | 136.99 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 128.01 | ...

公 司 研 究 招商银行（600036.SH）：分红比例 进一步提升，资产质量较平稳 营收降幅环比收窄，拨备反哺利润增 6.2%。 成本端：精细化管控费用、拨备反哺，净利润正增长。公司持续精细化配置费 用资源，2023 年管理费用同比 -1.4%，成本收入比 33%，相对保持稳定。信 用减值损失同比 -28%，年末拨备覆盖率为 437.7%，同比下降 13pct。在拨备 反哺下、净利润同比增 6.2%，增速环比前三季度下降 0.3pct。 2023 年末，招商银行贷款余额同比+7.6%，增速较 9 月末放缓 0.1pct。从全 年信贷新增情况来看，2023 年新增贷款 4574 亿，对公、零售分别占 49%、 60.4%；年末对公、零售贷款占比分别为 39.9%、52.8%，同比提升 0.69、 0.57pct。其中，对公贷款主要投向制造业、基建相关行业，新增占比分别为 24.3%、16.5%，对公房地产贷款净减少 493 亿。零售贷款主要增量贡献来自 小微贷款、消费贷款及其他，新增占比分别为 26.3%、23.6%。 息差收窄符合预期，预计 24 年仍有所承压。 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛 ...

东 兴 晨 报 分析师推荐 盈利端稳定性强。我们预计 2024 年国有大行利润增速有望维持平稳。（1）国 有大行在逆周期调节要求下，将继续发挥头雁作用，维持贷款增速较快增长。 （2）尽管资产端收益率预计进一步下行，但随着负债端政策红利持续释放， 息差收窄压力将得以缓释，有望以量补价支撑营收平稳增长。（3）考虑地方 化债积极推进、地产信用风险在以时间换空间的方式稳步出清，预计大行资 产质量平稳运行，拨备抵补能力充足，可抵补支撑盈利平稳增长。（4）从资 本角度看，在 G-SIBs 和 TLAC 达标要求，以及 RWA 较快增长的背景下，国 有大行保持净利润增长和内生资本稳定补充的必要性上升。 资金面支撑逐步形成。考虑国内机构低仓位、维稳市场资金增资、北向资金 流出压力趋于减缓，我们认为板块资金面支撑将逐步形成。（1）当前国内机 构对银行股配置仍低。2023 年末，主动偏股型公募基金重仓配置银行板块占 比仅 1.92%，相较过去 5 年、10 年仓位均值（3.47%、4.4%），仍有较大加仓 空间。保险公司对国有行的持仓也处于近年来较低水平。我们认为，随着保 险公司会计准则切换，其高股息资产配置需求有望提升，险资亦 ...

公 司 研 究 扬农化工（600486.SH）：业绩短期 2024年3月27日 强烈推荐/调低 承压，新项目驱动成长 东 扬农化工 公司报告 兴 证 券 扬农化工发布2023年年报：全年实现营业收入为114.78亿元，YoY-27.41%， 公司简介： 股 归母净利润为15.65亿元，YoY-12.77%，对应EPS为3.85元。公司拟每10 扬农化工现已形成以菊酯为核心，农药为主 份 股派发现金红利8.80元（含税）。 导，精细化学品为补充的多元化产品格局， 有 4个产品填补国际空白，30多个产品填补国 限 农药行业市场低迷，产品价格同比下滑，导致营收、利润下滑。从收入端看， 内空白。 公 2023年公司原药产品均价同比下滑29.54%、制剂产品均价同比下滑3.5%， 公司是国家重点高新技术企业，是中国拟除 司 导致公司原药板块营收同比下滑22.2%至73.84亿元、制剂板块营收同比下滑 虫菊酯类农药生产基地，全国化工企业环境 保护先进单位。公司积极发展环境友好型农 1.22%至16.76亿元。从利润端看，产品价格下滑导致毛利率同步下滑，2023 证 药，现拥有省拟除虫菊酯类农药工程研究中 年公司原药板块毛 ...