A 股港股市场 上证指数 3,065.26 -0.29 创业板 1,756.0 -1.76 沪深 300 3,541.66 -0.79 名称 价格 行业 发行日 分析师推荐 事件：五一假期临近，携程、同程、去哪儿等多平台发布出游预定数据报告， 旅游市场保持高景气。 投资策略：疫后出游需求持续释放，叠加休闲悦己消费兴起，旅游市场保持 高景气。尤其在消费市场整体渐进式复苏的背景下，出行链有望保持相对占 *价格单位为元/股 东兴晨报 P2 （3）酒店板块：短期看，酒店兼具旅游需求和商务需求，旅游需求保持高景 气，关注非节假日商务需求复苏节奏。长期看，酒店属出行链中韧性较强的 细分赛道，且业务标准化程度高、复制性强，龙头积极拓店，享受疫后连锁 化率和集中度提升红利。当前头部酒店集团估值处于历史较低水平，配置价 值与复苏弹性兼备，关注华住集团-S、锦江酒店、首旅酒店。 东兴晨报 P1 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 深证成指 9,279.46 -1.04 中小板 5,670.64 -1.39 国企指数 5,803.86 0.94 名称 价格 行业 上市日 会（20240419） 出境游处于快速修复通道，近途出境游为主要目的地 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is undergoing its third transformation in production models, shifting from traditional productivity to new qualitative productivity, driven by technological and process innovations [1][3] - The first transformation was marked by Ford's assembly line, which significantly increased production efficiency but faced challenges related to product standardization and waste [1][9] - The second transformation involved Toyota's lean manufacturing, which improved upon the assembly line model by enabling small-batch, diverse production and just-in-time inventory management [1][16] - The third transformation is characterized by new production models from Tesla and Toyota, focusing on reducing waste and enhancing efficiency through innovative techniques such as integrated die-casting and battery-chassis integration [2][3][39] Summary by Sections 1. First Transformation: Ford's Assembly Line - Ford's Model T revolutionized production with the assembly line, achieving a peak annual sales of over 2 million units by 1923, with prices dropping from $780 in 1910 to $360 in 1914 [1][9][13] - The assembly line's efficiency was achieved through standardization of parts and a division of labor, significantly reducing assembly time from 514 minutes to 1.19 minutes per task [10][11] 2. Second Transformation: Toyota's Lean Manufacturing - Lean manufacturing emerged as a response to the limitations of the assembly line, allowing for small-batch production and minimizing inventory waste [16][19] - Toyota's innovations included quick mold changes and a focus on value stream management, which connected customer orders directly to production processes [19][20] 3. Third Transformation: New Production Models - Tesla's "unbox" production model aims to reduce the number of parts and improve efficiency by using parallel assembly techniques, potentially increasing labor density by 44% and reducing factory investment by over 40% [2][30][34] - Toyota's Giga casting and self-propelling assembly lines are designed to simplify vehicle structures and enhance assembly efficiency, with projected reductions in development costs and factory investments by 30% and 50%, respectively [2][34][37] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the new automotive production models will create demand for new production lines and equipment upgrades, highlighting investment opportunities in smart manufacturing equipment companies such as Ju Yi Technology and Hao Sen Intelligent [3][4]

首 席 观 点 首席周观点：2024 年第 16 周2024 年 4 月 19 日 首席观点 周度观点 宏观：美国二三季度降息无望，年内降息必要性下降 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 东兴证券研究报告 适合降息的窗口很窄。美国是消费主导的经济体，三四季度为传统消费旺季，若一二季度不 出现衰退，则大概率三四季度经济表现尚可。3 月非农数据中赌博娱乐就业增速不减，三季 度旅游季大概率消费强劲，届时通胀，特别是服务类通胀，存在反弹压力。降息拖到三季度 后期至年尾，可能会遇到通胀下行趋势减弱而经济增速维持一定水平这种不利降息的局面。 S1480522060001，021-25102909，liuhang-yjs@dxzq.net.cn DONGXING SECURITIES 康明怡 | 东兴证券宏观分析师 S1480519090001，021-25102911，kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 美国通胀粘性明显。我们在 2020 年疫情爆发后对美国的通胀观点一直有二，一，通胀维持 高位的时间比美联储预期的要长，二，通胀回落的幅度比美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market benchmarks [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a stable revenue of 39.544 billion yuan in 2023, a slight decrease of 0.56% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.86% to 3.086 billion yuan [2][9]. - The company's profitability is expected to remain robust in the short term, supported by seasonal demand and pricing strategies, particularly in the paper segment [9]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and land resources, with plans to increase its self-owned forest area to 120,000 hectares by 2030, enhancing its cost advantages and supporting carbon neutrality goals [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a gross margin of 15.89% for the year, an increase of 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable improvement in Q4 gross margin reaching 17.12% [2]. - Revenue from the paper segment was 30 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, driven by increased production capacity and sales volume [2][10]. - The revenue from pulp products decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced external sales and increased internal consumption [3][10]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company initiated a new project for producing 300,000 tons of household paper, with an investment of up to 1.35 billion yuan, expected to start trial production in Q3 2024 [2]. - The company plans to develop a second phase of its Nanning Park project, which includes production lines for specialty paper and chemical pulp, with a total investment of up to 7 billion yuan [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will grow to 3.719 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2024 to 2026 [9][10]. - The pricing of key products, including chemical pulp and cultural paper, is expected to remain stable in the short term, although fluctuations may occur due to market dynamics [2][9].

中性：相对于市场基准指数收益率介于-5％～+5％之间； 回避：相对弱于市场基准指数收益率 5％以上。 行业投资评级（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指数）： 以报告日后的 6 个月内，行业指数相对于同期市场基准指数的表现为标准定义： 看好：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 5％以上； 中性：相对于市场基准指数收益率介于-5％～+5％之间； 看淡：相对弱于市场基准指数收益率 5％以上。 东兴证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------|------------------------------------| | | | | | 北京 | 上海 | 深圳 | | 西城区金融大街 5 号新盛大厦 | B 虹口区杨树浦路 248 | 福田区益田路 6009 号新世界中心 | | 座 16 层 | 大厦 5 层 | 46F | | 邮编： 100033 | 邮编： 200082 | 邮编： 518038 | | 电话： 010-66554070 ...

研究助理简介 金融学硕士，3 年产业投资经验，2022 年加盟东兴证券研究所，主要覆盖电新行业的研究。 美国密歇根大学金融工程硕士，3 年投资研究经验，2022 年加盟东兴证券研究所，主要覆盖电力设备新能 源等研究领域。 负责本研究报告全部或部分内容的每一位证券分析师，在此申明，本报告的观点、逻辑和论据均为分析师本 人研究成果，引用的相关信息和文字均已注明出处。本报告依据公开的信息来源，力求清晰、准确地反映分 析师本人的研究观点。本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与、现在不与，未来也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐或 观点直接或间接相关。 本证券研究报告所载的信息、观点、结论等内容仅供投资者决策参考。在任何情况下，本公司证券研究报告 均不构成对任何机构和个人的投资建议，市场有风险，投资者在决定投资前，务必要审慎。投资者应自主作 出投资决策，自行承担投资风险。 东兴证券公司报告 免责声明 本研究报告由东兴证券股份有限公司研究所撰写，东兴证券股份有限公司是具有合法证券投资咨询业务资格 的机构。本研究报告中所引用信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证， 也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 14.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.34%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.836 billion yuan, up 18.88% [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing construction of computing power infrastructure and the domestic substitution trend in the computing industry [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 6.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 17.31%, and net profit of 1.086 billion yuan, up 21.89% [2][3]. - The company’s R&D investment reached 2.444 billion yuan, reflecting its commitment to enhancing technological advantages and product capabilities [3][4]. Market Opportunities - The company is positioned to capitalize on the high demand for computing power driven by the development of large model technologies and applications [4][10]. - The liquid cooling data center solutions are gaining traction, with the market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 54.7% from 2022 to 2027 [4][10]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to be 2.302 billion yuan in 2024, 2.834 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.398 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.57, 1.94, and 2.32 yuan [10][11]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 29.73, 24.14, and 20.14 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [10][11].

行 业 研 究 社会服务行业：五一旅游预定保持 2024年4月19日 看好/维持 高景气，关注出行链投资机会 东 消费者服务 行业报告 兴 证 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 事件：五一假期临近，携程、同程、去哪儿等多平台发布出游预定数据报告， 无 股 旅游市场保持高景气。 份 行业基本资料 占比% 有 出游需求持续释放，叠加休闲悦己消费兴起，国内旅游市场延续高景气，长线 限 股票家数 39 0.85% 游、下沉市场结构性占优。从出游市场整体来看，今年五一旅游市场有望保持 公 高景气。携程数据显示，今年“五一”旅游热度在去年高位基础上稳中有增， 行业市值(亿元) 3757.26 0.44% 司 境内酒店、机票搜索热度同比去年均有增长。去哪儿数据显示，自4月6日起， 流通市值(亿元) 3411.33 0.5% 证 “五一”假期热门城市机票预订量迅速增长，单日预订量已超过2023年同期， 行业平均市盈率 38.72 / 券 预计“五一”假期旅客量有望创下新高。出行结构看，长线游、下沉市场有望 行业指数走势图 研 结构性占优。携程数据显示，“五一”期间中长线旅游成为主导，国内长途游 究 订单占据了56%的比例。同程旅 ...

行业评级体系 强烈推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 15％以上； 看好：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 5％以上； 东兴证券研究所 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 公 司 研 究 新洋丰（000902.SZ）：复合肥盈利 水平有望恢复，项目建设强化产业 链一体化布局 新洋丰发布 2023 年年报：公司全年实现营业收入 151.00 亿元，YoY-5.38%， 归母净利润为 12.07 亿元，YoY-7.85%。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 3 元（含 税）。 配套资源项目建设持续推进，有望丰富产品布局，增强产业链一体化优势。凭 我们预测公司 2024~2026 年净利润分别为 13.68、16.17 和 18.93 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 1.07、1.26 和 1.47 元，当前股价对应 P/E 值分别为 11、9 和 8 倍。维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：原料单质肥价格大幅波动；下游农产品价格大幅波动；新建产能投 放进度不及预期。 2024 年 4 月 18 日 强烈推荐/维持 新洋丰 公司报告 从收入端看，化肥产品价格下滑，但销量有所增长。①磷肥：2023 年公司磷 肥产品销量同 ...

——玉龙股份（601028）2023 年报点评 玉龙股份（601028.SH）：矿业双轮 驱动战略提效 矿山类业务进入强 成长周期 公司已逐步成为以矿采选业务为主的多元化贵金属矿商。2023 年是公司实施 "黄金矿产和新能源新材料矿产双轮驱动"战略的第一个完整年度，数据显示 公司已有效切换至以矿采选业务为主的主营结构，其中黄金矿山业务占主营比 例由22年的1.32%增至51.97%，同期该业务毛利占比则由11.5%增至67.1%。 考虑到公司帕金戈金矿已经进入全面达产阶段，叠加后期陕西楼房沟钒矿的产 出释放，预计矿山类业务占公司主营业务比例将延续结构性攀升状态，而考虑 到矿采选业务具有的偏高毛利特征，公司综合毛利水平亦有望持续提升。此外， 鉴于公司 2024 年将坚持"1235"工作思路并坚定出清大宗贸易业务且积极进 行矿山投建与并购，公司将成为资本市场中较为纯粹的以矿采选业务为核心的 多元化贵金属矿商标的，这意味着公司的矿业属性及估值弹性仍有较大优化空 间（如申万黄金板块平均估值 39X，公司当前 TTM 仅 21X）。 公司简介： 分析师：张天丰 021-25102914 执业证书编号： 东 兴 证 券 ...