Group 1: Electronic Industry Investment Outlook - The electronic industry is expected to perform actively in 2024, with the industry index (CITIC) projected to rise by 17.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by industry recovery and AI [2][3] - Key areas of innovation include AI glasses, which are in a developmental phase and expected to reach a market size peak by 2035, and high-speed copper connections, which are anticipated to see global shipments reach 20 million by 2027 [2][3] - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is identified as a critical chip for AI computing demand, with strong market demand despite being dominated by a few international giants [3] Group 2: Bond Market Investment Outlook - The bond market is expected to perform strongly in 2024, with significant declines in yield for both government and corporate bonds, and a notable increase in the supply of government bonds [2][3] - Long-term interest rates are projected to trend downward, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize between 1.7% and 2.0% [2][3] - Investment strategies include focusing on mid-term government bonds to reduce portfolio volatility and selecting high-rated corporate bonds for yield enhancement [2][3] Group 3: Coal Industry Investment Outlook - The coal sector has shown a cumulative increase of 8.62% from early 2024 to December 6, 2024, with stable profitability expected due to long-term contracts stabilizing coal prices [26][27] - Despite challenges from renewable energy, coal remains a primary power source, with demand expected to rise as coal-fired power generation continues to dominate [26][27] - The coal sector's valuation is still low, with a PE ratio of 11.75, indicating potential for value appreciation, especially with increasing cash dividends [27][28] Group 4: Transportation Industry Insights - In November, domestic airlines faced a decline in capacity due to seasonal demand drops, with a 10.4% decrease in capacity compared to October [29][32] - Passenger load factors varied significantly among airlines, with some prioritizing load factors over ticket prices, leading to differing performance outcomes [31][33] - International routes also saw a decline in capacity, but some airlines reported improved load factors compared to previous years, indicating a mixed recovery [34][35] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized boosting consumption as a key task, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending and investment efficiency [36][39] - Specific measures include increasing basic pensions and promoting new consumption models, which are expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector [39][40] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to recover alongside overall consumption growth, particularly in segments closely tied to economic prosperity, such as liquor and condiments [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2][12]. Core Viewpoints - In November, pig prices initially fell before rebounding, with production capacity showing a slight increase. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 34.42 CNY/kg, 17.33 CNY/kg, and 28.69 CNY/kg respectively, with year-on-year changes of 41.98%, 14.72%, and 14.93% [11][26]. - The supply side is characterized by increased market supply due to higher slaughter rates and improved market conditions, while the demand side saw slight improvements due to seasonal consumption patterns [29][33]. - The report anticipates a potential rebound in pig prices before the Spring Festival, although the extent of this rebound is expected to be limited [12][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry consists of 100 listed companies, with a total market value of 132.63 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 100.56 billion CNY. The average price-to-earnings ratio stands at 31.38 [5][6][8]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In November, pig prices experienced a downward trend in early November due to increased supply, followed by a rebound in late November driven by seasonal demand for cured meats. The slaughtering rate increased by 1.64 percentage points to 29.64% [11][29]. - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase, with a total of 40.73 million sows reported in October, reflecting a 0.30% month-on-month increase [12][33]. Sales Data - In November, the average sales prices for major pig farming companies decreased, with Muyuan, Wens Foodstuffs, and New Hope reporting average sales prices of 16.22 CNY/kg, 16.71 CNY/kg, and 16.49 CNY/kg respectively, reflecting declines of 5.53%, 5.27%, and 5.07% month-on-month [39][41]. - The total number of pigs slaughtered by 17 listed companies in November was 14.21 million, a slight increase of 0.38% month-on-month and a 3.58% increase year-on-year [41][44]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the profitability of breeding companies is expected to remain robust in 2024, particularly for leading companies with cost advantages. The industry is anticipated to undergo valuation recovery as consumption-boosting policies are implemented [12][33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" [1][14]. Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, indicating a gradual rebound in consumer demand [1]. - The report highlights a clear trend towards high cost-performance consumption, with essential goods showing steady growth while optional goods exhibit varied performance [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the impact of government policies on consumer behavior, particularly in categories like home appliances and furniture, which have seen significant sales growth due to supportive measures [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods for the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 353,564 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1]. - Online retail sales reached 108,928 billion yuan, growing by 8.6% year-on-year, indicating a strong shift towards online shopping [1][7]. Consumer Behavior - Essential consumption categories such as food and daily necessities showed robust growth, with year-on-year increases of 9.9% and 2.2%, respectively [1]. - Optional consumption categories displayed mixed results, with categories like home appliances and audio-visual equipment experiencing a notable increase of 20.5% year-on-year [2]. Retail Performance - In the first nine months of 2024, retail sales in urban areas grew by 3.2%, while rural areas saw a growth of 4.4% [1]. - The report notes that online consumption growth outpaced offline, with online sales accounting for 26.7% of total retail sales [7]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-performing segments within the retail industry and companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences towards cost-effective products [2][6].

Group 1: Coal Industry Insights - The coal sector is expected to see a price increase after a decline in 2024, with long-term contracts stabilizing prices, leading to enhanced profitability stability [1] - Despite the impact of renewable energy on coal power generation, coal remains the primary source of electricity, with increasing demand for thermal coal driven by rising electricity generation [1] - The supply side is constrained due to limited capacity expansion approvals under the "dual carbon" policy, maintaining a tight supply situation that supports sustained industry profitability [1] - As of December 6, 2024, the coal sector's PE ratio is 11.75 and PB ratio is 1.55, both below historical medians, indicating low valuation levels [1] Group 2: Market Strategy and Consumer Trends - The A-share market is expected to maintain a structural bull market, focusing on consumer technology and new consumption areas highlighted by the central economic work conference [2] - New consumption sectors such as the "first launch economy," "ice and snow economy," and "silver-haired economy" are anticipated to become market focal points, covering various industries including manufacturing and retail [2] - Investors are advised to focus on long-term positions driven by policy support, particularly in large consumer and technology sectors [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations in Coal Sector - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies with stable long-term profitability such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration like China Power Investment and Xinji Energy [3] - Growth-oriented companies such as Huayang Co., Yanzhou Coal, and Huaibei Mining are also highlighted, along with state-owned enterprises leading in reform [3] Group 4: Electronic Industry Trends - The electronic industry index has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 17.39% increase from early 2024 to December 6, 2024 [26] - The current hardware innovation cycle, combined with the AI wave, is expected to usher in a new development phase for the electronic industry [26] - Key areas of focus include AI glasses, high-speed copper connections, and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with significant growth projections for each segment [27][28][30] Group 5: Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is anticipated to experience a valuation recovery, with macro policies supporting credit growth and improving asset quality expectations [35] - The expected credit growth for 2025 is projected to be around 19 trillion yuan, with a stable increase in social financing [36] - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize due to improved deposit costs and effective interest rate transmission mechanisms [37] Group 6: Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes boosting consumption as a priority, with specific actions aimed at increasing the income and consumption capacity of low- and middle-income groups [46][47] - The anticipated recovery in consumption, particularly in food and beverage sectors, is expected to be driven by policies supporting employment and income growth [48] - Key companies to watch include Kweichow Moutai, Anjuke Food, and Three Squirrels, which are expected to benefit from market share gains [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electronic industry, suggesting it will outperform the CSI 300 index in 2024 [1][17]. Core Insights - The electronic industry index (CITIC) increased by 17.39% from the beginning of 2024 to December 6, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 14.30% [1][17]. - The report highlights a new development phase for the electronic industry driven by hardware innovation and the AI wave, emphasizing the importance of marginal changes in the industry [1][17]. - The report identifies three key areas for investment: AI glasses, high-speed copper connections, and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Recovery and AI Influence - The electronic sector is benefiting from industry recovery and AI-driven growth, with the electronic index outperforming the CSI 300 index [1][17]. - Fund holdings in the electronic sector decreased to 534.409 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing 5.76% of the circulating market value, down from 8.45% in Q2 2024 [1][25][28]. AI Glasses - AI glasses are highlighted as a key wearable device with portability and interactivity, expected to become a primary platform for AI applications [1][39]. - The market for AI+AR smart glasses is projected to reach a penetration rate of 70% by 2035, with global sales expected to hit 1.4 billion units [1][46]. High-Speed Copper Connections - High-speed copper cables (DAC) are noted for their cost-effectiveness and low power consumption, essential for high-speed interconnects in data centers [2][67]. - Global shipments of high-speed copper cables are expected to reach 20 million units by the end of 2027, with annual revenue exceeding 1.2 billion USD [2][70]. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) - The rise of AI models has created a significant demand for HBM, which is expected to contribute 10% of total DRAM output by 2025, doubling from 2024 [3][75]. - The HBM market is projected to grow to 7.95 billion USD by 2029, driven by high average prices and increasing demand [3][75].

Group 1 - The report identifies two major bull market cycles in A-shares since 2000: the first cycle from 2006 driven by the split share structure reform and currency reform, and the second cycle from 2015 characterized by the "Internet Plus" initiative [1][6] - Each bull market is associated with leading industries influenced by economic policies and development stages, with significant performances noted in sectors such as real estate, infrastructure, technology, and high-end manufacturing [2][8] - The report highlights the potential for consumer spending to be a key theme moving forward, particularly with the government's focus on new consumption areas such as the "first consumption economy," "ice and snow economy," and "silver-haired economy" [2][8] Group 2 - The report suggests that the market is transitioning to a structural bull market characterized by gradual upward movements, with a focus on consumer and technology sectors, particularly those aligned with new consumption trends [3][11] - It notes that the overall market valuation remains reasonable, with an average PE ratio of 16.7 for the entire A-share market and 11.9 for the CSI 300 index, indicating potential for investment [22][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven market dynamics, suggesting that as policies are implemented, the market will likely see a shift towards thematic rotations rather than rapid surges [3][11]

行 业 研 究 2024 年 12 月 17 日 看好/维持 煤炭 行业报告 煤炭行业 2025 年投资展望：政策加码， 低估值与高分红兼备，核心资产具配置价 值 分析师 莫文娟 电话：010-66555574 邮箱：mowj@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480524070001 投资摘要： 2024 年以来，国内经济缓慢修复，煤炭板块涨幅明显。2024 年年初至 12 月 6 日，煤炭板块累计涨幅 8.62%。由于近期美 国降息，国内政策加码，一系列组合拳出台，沪深 300 指数累计跨越式涨幅 15.80%，煤炭跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点， 在 30 个申万一级行业分类中排名第十九。 基本面展望：煤炭行业未来盈利稳定性有望增强。2024 年前三季度煤炭价格先降后升，第四季度整体下跌。长协政策稳定 煤炭价格，未来煤炭板块盈利的稳定性增加。需求端：即使受新能源发电方式的冲击，煤炭发电依旧是发电主力，发电量上 升带动电煤需求增加，在未来一段时间内煤炭发电极有可能依旧将维持在发电主力的位置不变。供给端：煤炭企业产能周期 难开启，未来煤炭供给缩紧。煤企倾向于高分红，未来新建矿资本开支有限 ...

行 业 研 究 食品饮料行业：中央经济工作会议 解读：提振消费是亮点，明年政策 将继续落地 2024 年 12 月 17 日 看好/维持 食品饮料 行业报告 部署九大重点任务，"大力提振消费"排在第一位。中央经济工作会议 12 月 12 日召开，在大会提出的"九项"任务中"大力提振消费，提高投资效益， 全方位扩大国内需求"被排在了第一位，消费是明年的重要政策抓手。经济动 能切换和外部压力的冲击下，消费在经济中的重要性被动提升。 在扩大内需方面，中央经济工作会议提出三大方向：1、实施提振消费专项行 动，推动中低收入群体增收减负，提升消费能力、意愿和层级。适当提高退休 人员基本养老金，提高城乡居民基础养老金，提高城乡居民医保财政补助标准。 2、加力扩围实施"两新"政策，创新多元化消费场景，扩大服务消费，促进 文化旅游业发展。积极发展首发经济、冰雪经济、银发经济。3、加强自上而 下组织协调，更大力度支持"两重"项目。 细化政策或进一步落地，消费复苏可期。在"扩内需"的大方向下，我们预期 明年各地具体的执行政策或出台，消费复苏的趋势整体可期，特别是针对保就 业、增收减负的政策，对推动中低收入群体增收减负，提升消费能力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the retail industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][33]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand to stimulate consumer market vitality, with a focus on innovative and service-oriented consumption [8][15]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the necessity of boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, reflecting a strong commitment to enhancing domestic demand [8]. - The report identifies "first-release economy" as a key driver for offline retail channels and top consumer brands, suggesting that new product launches and promotional events can significantly enhance brand visibility and market impact [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail industry comprises 93 companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 941.78 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.98% increase [4][5]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the industry stands at 75.45 [7]. Consumer Trends - The report anticipates that innovative consumption and service-oriented consumption will be the main growth drivers, particularly in areas such as digital consumption, green consumption, and health-oriented services [8][14]. - The service consumption sector is expected to focus on basic livelihood needs and upgraded cultural demands, with significant growth potential in areas like elderly care and tourism [14]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the consumer market remains weak, but the expansion of domestic demand policies is likely to boost consumer confidence and market activity [15]. - Key sectors expected to benefit include trendy toys, beauty care, medical aesthetics, gold and jewelry, and tourism [15]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for brands with strong market presence and flexible operations [17]. - Notable companies include: - Proya: EPS forecast of 3.97 yuan for 2024, with a PE of 23 [17]. - Betaini: EPS forecast of 1.74 yuan for 2024, with a PE of 28 [17]. - Aimeike: EPS forecast of 8.29 yuan for 2024, with a PE of 25 [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][73]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic aviation market is currently in a low-demand season, leading to a reduction in capacity deployment by approximately 10.4% compared to October, which is equivalent to 115% of the capacity in the same period of 2019. Year-on-year, there is only a slight increase of 1.8% [8][22]. - The report notes a significant divergence in passenger load factors among airlines, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines showing higher load factors compared to 2019, while Air China and others are performing similarly to that period. This indicates differing sales strategies among airlines in response to low demand [9][30]. - The report suggests that the oversupply in domestic routes remains a challenge, and the recovery of international routes is crucial to alleviate this pressure. The performance of major airlines' stock prices has shown a significant margin of safety after prolonged adjustments, making them worthy of attention [10][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The transportation industry has a market capitalization of approximately 33,430.04 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 29,435.26 billion yuan. The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 18.13 [5][6][7]. Domestic Route Capacity Deployment - In November, the domestic aviation market entered a low season, with a further decrease in capacity deployment. The cautious approach to capacity management reflects airlines' awareness of insufficient demand in the fourth quarter [8][22]. Passenger Load Factors - The passenger load factor for the industry decreased by approximately 2.7 percentage points month-on-month in November but remains 1.6 percentage points higher than in the same month of 2019. Airlines are facing challenges in balancing ticket prices and load factors due to low demand [9][30]. International Route Performance - For international routes, capacity deployment in November was about 92% of the level seen in the same month of 2019, with a month-on-month decrease of approximately 5.7%. The load factor for international routes improved by 0.7 percentage points compared to October, exceeding expectations [10][40]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery of international routes will be essential for addressing the oversupply in domestic routes. Despite ongoing operational pressures, the fundamental improvements in the industry suggest that profit performance is likely to be significantly better than last year [10][40].