Group 1 - The report highlights the growth potential of the ice and snow industry, with a target economic scale of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, as set by the State Council [5][6] - The number of ice and snow sports venues in China increased by 16.11% in 2023, with ski resorts growing by 6.47% and ice skating venues by 21.32% [5][6] - High-end ski resorts and indoor ski venues are experiencing strong demand, with ski visits increasing by over 30% [5][6] Group 2 - The personal pension system is being promoted nationwide, allowing all workers participating in basic pension insurance to join the system starting December 15, 2024 [7][10] - The total pension assets managed by public funds have exceeded 6 trillion yuan, indicating a significant market for pension-related investment products [7][10] - The report suggests that the implementation of the personal pension system will enhance the sales of various insurance products and benefit brokerage firms through increased product distribution [10] Group 3 - In November 2024, new home sales in major cities showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in sales area [25][27] - The report indicates that the central government is likely to implement more proactive policies to stabilize the real estate market, which could create investment opportunities in the sector [25][27] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to November 2024 decreased by 14.3%, but the trend is improving [25][27] Group 4 - In November 2024, the total social financing increased by 2.34 trillion yuan, with government bonds contributing significantly to this growth [29][32] - The report notes that the M1 money supply decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, but showed signs of improvement compared to previous months [32][34] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and an improving economic outlook, making it a focus for investment [34][36]

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the central economic work conference has prioritized boosting consumption as a key task for the upcoming year, with policies expected to be implemented to enhance consumer spending and improve investment efficiency [2][3] - Three main policy directions for expanding domestic demand were outlined: implementing special actions to boost consumption, enhancing the "two new" policies to innovate diverse consumption scenarios, and strengthening organizational coordination to support key projects [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in food and beverage consumption, particularly in sub-sectors closely related to economic prosperity, such as liquor and condiments, suggesting a mid-to-long-term positive trend for companies with increasing market share like Kweichow Moutai and Anjuke Food [3] Group 2: Banking Industry - The report indicates that in 2024, listed banks experienced a significant recovery in valuation, with both absolute and relative returns improving, particularly among state-owned banks and quality small and medium-sized banks [4] - Looking ahead to 2025, macro policies are expected to adopt extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments, with moderate monetary easing likely to lead to a further decline in broad interest rates, although banks may still face pressure on net interest margins [5] - The report suggests that the improvement in asset quality is anticipated due to the alleviation of risks in real estate and local platforms, which could enhance banks' asset quality expectations [5][9] Group 3: Ice and Snow Industry - The report highlights that the high-quality development of the ice and snow industry is supported by government policies, with the total scale of the ice and snow economy expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [18][19] - There has been a notable increase in the number of ice and snow sports venues, with a 16.11% growth in total venues compared to 2022, indicating a growing consumer demand for high-end and indoor ski resorts [18][19] - The report estimates that the equipment investment in the ice and snow industry could exceed 200 billion yuan annually, driven by the increasing number of indoor and small ski resorts, which are expected to continue growing due to rising incomes and supportive policies [20][24] Group 4: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report discusses the nationwide rollout of the personal pension system, which is expected to enhance the multi-pillar pension system and improve the capital market's wealth management capabilities [26][27] - The implementation of tax incentives for personal pensions is anticipated to increase public awareness and acceptance, potentially boosting the sales of various insurance products [28][29] - The report suggests that the positive developments in the personal pension system could lead to significant performance improvements for brokerage firms and asset management companies [29][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" [1] Core Viewpoints - November new home sales turned positive year-on-year, while the decline in funds received by real estate companies narrowed [4] - The central government shows a continuous willingness to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for more proactive policies in the future [4] Sales Summary - For January to November 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, improving from a previous decline of 15.8%. The cumulative sales amount decreased by 19.2%, better than the previous decline of 20.9% [2] - In November, the sales area increased by 3.2% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.6%. The sales amount increased by 1.0%, improving from a previous decline of 1.0%. However, the average sales price decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to a previous increase of 0.2% [2] Development Investment Summary - From January to November 2024, the cumulative new construction area decreased by 23.0% year-on-year, slightly worsening from a previous decline of 22.6%. The cumulative completion area decreased by 26.2%, worsening from a previous decline of 23.9%. The cumulative development investment amount decreased by 10.4%, similar to the previous decline of 10.3% [3] - In November, the new construction area decreased by 26.8% year-on-year, slightly worsening from a previous decline of 26.7%. The completion area saw a significant decline of 38.8%, worsening from a previous decline of 20.1%. The development investment amount decreased by 11.6%, improving from a previous decline of 12.3% [3] Funds Received Summary - For January to November 2024, the cumulative funds received by real estate development companies decreased by 18.0% year-on-year, improving from a previous decline of 19.2%. In November, the single-month funds received decreased by 4.8%, improving from a previous decline of 10.8% [4] - Domestic loans decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, improving from a previous decline of 8.8%. Self-raised funds decreased by 15.6%, improving from a previous decline of 22.7%. Deposits and advance payments increased by 5.0%, improving from a previous decline of 3.9% [4] Future Industry Events - Key industry events in the next 3-6 months include the release of January-February 2025 real estate data by the National Bureau of Statistics in mid-February 2025 [5] Industry Basic Information - The industry consists of 114 listed companies, with a total market value of 1,434.278 billion and a circulating market value of 1,324.534 billion. The average industry P/E ratio is -23.39 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5][52]. Core Insights - In November 2024, the sales prices of new and second-hand homes in major cities showed a narrowing decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a halt in the decline of new home prices and a continued increase in second-hand home prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that the central government is showing a consistent willingness to stabilize and promote the recovery of the real estate market, suggesting that future policies will be more proactive and sustained [5]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In November, the new residential sales price index for 70 major cities recorded a month-on-month decline of -0.2%, an improvement from -0.5% in the previous month [2]. - The first-tier cities' new residential sales price index remained unchanged at 0.0%, with specific cities like Beijing and Shanghai showing month-on-month changes of -0.5% and 0.6%, respectively [2]. - The second-hand residential price index for 70 major cities saw a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, improving from -0.5% previously [3]. Year-on-Year Changes - The year-on-year decline in the new residential sales price index for 70 major cities was -6.1%, slightly better than the previous -6.2% [4]. - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of -4.3%, with notable variations among cities such as Beijing at -5.3% and Shanghai at 5.0% [4]. - The year-on-year decline for the second-hand residential price index across 70 major cities was -8.5%, an improvement from -8.9% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should continue to pay attention to opportunities within the real estate sector, as both supply and demand are expected to receive more positive and sustained policy support [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that government bonds continue to support social financing, with M1 growth rate showing signs of recovery [9][10] - In November, social financing increased by 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan, while the stock of social financing grew by 7.8% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month [20] - The report indicates that the structure of social financing is heavily influenced by government bonds, which accounted for 56% of the new social financing in November [2][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing - Government bonds contributed significantly to the new social financing, with 1.31 trillion yuan issued in November, an increase of 158.9 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - The new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [3][20] - Off-balance-sheet financing saw an increase of 81.9 billion yuan, while direct financing through corporate bonds reached 242.8 billion yuan, up 109.8 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3] Credit - There was a marginal improvement in long-term loans for households, while corporate credit remains weak [3] - Household loans increased by 270 billion yuan, with long-term loans showing a year-on-year increase of 66.9 billion yuan [3] - Corporate loans saw a significant decline, with new loans of 250 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion yuan [3] Deposits - M1 showed a continued improvement trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, but the decline narrowed by 2.4 percentage points [9][17] - In November, M1 increased by 1.75 trillion yuan, with the increase in demand deposits contributing to this growth [9][10] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the banking sector exhibits clear "post-cycle" characteristics, with room for upward valuation [9][10] - The anticipated mainline logic for 2025 includes enhanced value from long-term capital allocation and improved fundamental expectations driving valuation recovery [9][10]

行 业 研 究 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|----------------------------------------|------------------|----------------------------------------| | 设备 | 机械行业：冰雪产业高质量发展利好制冷 | 2024 \n看好/维持 | 年 12 月 15 日 \n机械 行业报告 | | 分析师 任天辉 电话： | 010-66554037 邮箱： renth@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号： | S1480523020001 | 投资摘要： 冰雪产业高质量发展或政策加持。2024 年 11 月 6 日，国务院办公厅发布《关于以冰雪运动高质量发展激发冰雪经济活力的 若干意见》，其中提到，到 2027 年冰雪运动场地设施更加完善，冰雪经济总规模达到 1.2 万亿元。到 2030 年，冰雪消费成 为扩大内需重要增长点，建成一批冰雪运动和冰雪旅游高质量目的地，冰雪经济总规模达到 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating it is expected to outperform the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [10][25]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "boosting consumption" as a key priority, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment efficiency [1][2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumption driven by specific policies aimed at increasing income and reducing burdens for low- and middle-income groups, which will positively impact food and beverage consumption [3]. - The implementation of "two new" policies is expected to further enhance consumption scenarios, particularly in sectors like cultural tourism and service consumption, with projections indicating a market scale exceeding 300 billion by 2025 [2][3]. - The report suggests that the recovery of food and beverage consumption will be closely linked to overall economic prosperity, particularly in sub-sectors like liquor and condiments, which are expected to recover first [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Directions - The report outlines three main policy directions for expanding domestic demand: 1. Implementing special actions to boost consumption, including increasing basic pensions and healthcare subsidies for urban and rural residents [2]. 2. Expanding the "two new" policies to innovate diverse consumption scenarios and promote service consumption [2]. 3. Enhancing coordination and support for key projects, with an increase in central budget investments [2]. Consumption Recovery - The report predicts a trend of consumption recovery, particularly benefiting the food and beverage sector, as policies aimed at job retention and income improvement are expected to have a significant impact [3]. - It is anticipated that consumption infrastructure investments will be supported by fiscal and financial coordination, further driving demand in tourism and related sectors [3]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a medium to long-term perspective on the recovery trend in the food and beverage sector, highlighting companies with increasing market share such as Guizhou Moutai, Anjijia Food, and Three Squirrels as key investment opportunities [3]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies in the industry, with Guizhou Moutai, Three Squirrels, and Anjijia Food receiving "recommended" ratings based on their expected performance [5].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a more proactive macroeconomic policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, in response to potential economic downward pressure [27][28]. - The meeting highlighted the need for a more active fiscal policy, which includes increasing the central government deficit ratio and expanding the issuance of special bonds to support investment and consumption [3][4]. - Monetary policy is expected to shift towards a moderately loose stance, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to ensure ample liquidity in the market [3][30]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the machinery industry is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in sectors such as motorcycles, printing and packaging machinery, and robotics, driven by favorable policies [9]. - Investment opportunities are identified in industrial mother machines, engineering machinery, and control equipment, as well as in growth sectors like humanoid robots and semiconductor equipment [9]. - The report indicates that the general equipment sector is poised for performance improvement as it enters a cyclical upturn, supported by a rebound in manufacturing investment [9]. Group 3 - The report discusses the automotive industry, noting that GAC Group is expanding its presence in Europe with the establishment of an international office and plans to launch new models in the region [10]. - The electronics sector is highlighted for its strategic partnerships, such as the collaboration between Hongxin Electronics and Xiaomi to support the latter's ecosystem in home appliances and automotive sectors [10]. - The report also mentions the solid-state battery collaboration between Xiamen Tungsten and Xinwanda Power, indicating a focus on new energy materials [13]. Group 4 - The report outlines the growth potential in the photovoltaic industry, with significant increases in production and exports of polysilicon, wafers, batteries, and modules in 2024 [15]. - It notes that the solar industry is expected to maintain stable growth, with production figures showing over 20% year-on-year increases across various segments [15]. Group 5 - The report highlights the smart driving chip industry, indicating a strong market penetration of autonomous driving vehicles and a projected market size growth for automotive-grade SoC chips [37][38]. - It emphasizes the advantages of SoC technology in reducing costs and improving performance, while also addressing the challenges in manufacturing and testing [36][37]. - The report suggests that the smart driving chip sector is poised for rapid development, with several companies positioned to benefit from technological advancements and market demand [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the banking sector, indicating a recovery in valuations and potential for further upside [3][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown significant absolute and relative returns in 2024, with a notable increase in the banking index by 28.9%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.1 percentage points [9]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in 2025 due to proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to a stabilization of net interest margins and an improvement in asset quality [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term capital allocation and the potential for valuation recovery driven by improved fundamentals [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The banking sector has experienced a valuation recovery, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and quality small and medium-sized banks all showing phases of excess returns [3]. - The report forecasts a stable credit growth in 2025, with an expected credit increment of approximately 19 trillion yuan and a growth rate of around 8% [4]. Credit Supply and Demand - The report highlights that credit supply is not a concern, with the issuance of special government bonds expected to enhance the lending capacity of state-owned banks [4]. - It notes that while credit demand from the government and state-owned enterprises is likely to increase, the situation for private enterprises remains uncertain due to external market pressures [4]. Interest Rate and Margin Analysis - The report predicts a narrowing of the decline in net interest margins due to improved deposit costs and effective interest rate transmission mechanisms [4][5]. - It estimates that the net interest margin may decrease by about 10 basis points, but the overall trend is expected to stabilize in the latter half of 2025 [4]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The asset quality of banks is expected to remain stable, with improvements anticipated in the real estate and small and micro-enterprise sectors [5]. - The report indicates that banks have been actively managing non-performing loans, which has contributed to a more favorable outlook for asset quality [5]. Non-Interest Income and Market Conditions - The report suggests that the bond market is likely to remain favorable, and the recovery of the capital market may stabilize non-interest income contributions [5]. - It also notes that the high dividend yield of bank stocks continues to attract long-term capital, particularly from insurance companies and ETFs [6][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on bank stocks with strong cyclical characteristics, as they are expected to perform well in an improving economic environment [5]. - It highlights the potential for increased allocations to bank stocks by active funds, which currently remain underweight in this sector [29]. Valuation Insights - The report indicates that the overall valuation of banks has improved but remains within historical low ranges, with the price-to-book (PB) ratio recovering from 0.52 to 0.63 [33]. - It emphasizes that the valuation recovery is significantly correlated with expected return on equity (ROE), suggesting further upside potential as economic conditions improve [33]. Performance Overview - The report notes that the banking sector's performance has been mixed, with city commercial banks leading in revenue growth, while state-owned banks have shown signs of stabilization [45]. - It highlights that the overall profitability of listed banks has marginally improved, driven by growth in non-interest income and a reduction in the drag from net interest margins [39].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][27] Core Viewpoints - The personal pension system will be promoted nationwide starting December 15, 2024, enhancing the multi-pillar pension system in China [9][10] - The implementation of tax incentives for personal pensions will expand from pilot cities to the entire country, which is expected to improve the capital market's wealth management function [9][10] - The personal pension system is anticipated to increase public awareness and acceptance, leading to higher sales of various insurance products [11] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial industry has a total of 82 stocks with an average market capitalization of approximately 76,393.68 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.73% increase [3][4] - The circulating market value stands at about 60,508.39 billion yuan, with a 7.53% increase [5] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry is 16.05 [6] Future Developments - The personal pension system is a significant step towards developing a multi-layered pension security system, which will facilitate better capital market participation [9][10] - The government will optimize product offerings and expand the asset pool for personal pension products, including public funds and government bonds [10] Investment Recommendations - The current social security structure in China has considerable room for improvement compared to developed countries [11] - The anticipated rise in public interest in personal pensions is expected to benefit brokerage firms and insurance companies, leading to substantial performance growth [11] - Focus should be on leading brokerage and insurance firms with competitive advantages in customer resources and product offerings [11]