Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the food and beverage industry, particularly focusing on the holiday gifting opportunities in the snack food sector [1]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "Gift Giving" feature by WeChat Shop is expected to create a new consumption channel, especially benefiting food and beverage companies with gifting attributes [10][11]. - The feature is anticipated to enhance user engagement and increase online sales for companies that actively embrace this channel, with a particular focus on snack food enterprises [11][34]. - The upcoming holiday seasons, including Christmas, New Year, and Valentine's Day, are expected to drive significant gifting transactions, particularly in categories like alcoholic beverages, snack foods, and dairy products [34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes recent weekly performance across various sub-sectors in the food and beverage industry, with declines observed in categories such as beer (-1.38%), meat products (-3.87%), and dairy products (-8.61%) [35]. - The top-performing companies in the alcoholic beverage sector included ST Tongpu (3.97%) and Huangtai Wine (2.03%), while the worst performers included Hainan Coconut Island (-10.01%) and Jinfeng Wine (-10.61%) [36]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry has a total market capitalization of approximately 49,235.26 billion, with a circulating market value of about 47,654.96 billion [11]. - The average industry price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.06, indicating the current valuation landscape within the sector [11]. Key Company Tracking - Companies such as Three Squirrels and Qiaqia Foods are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the new gifting feature due to their proactive strategies in the snack food segment [11][34].

行 业 研 究 2024 年 12 月 23 日 看好/维持 轻工制造 行业报告 股票家数 168 3.7% 行业市值(亿元) 10457.17 1.09% 流通市值(亿元) 9356.48 1.2% 行业平均市盈率 28.65 / 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 家居行业：以旧换新补贴政策支撑 需求 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 事件：2024 年 11 月家具类商品零售类值 190 亿元，同比+10.5%；1-11 月家具 类商品零售类值 1505 亿元，同比+2.9%。 家具零售数据改善，以旧换新补贴效果明显。9 月以来各地家居以旧换新政策 陆续落地，其中广东、四川等区域补贴政策实施较早，其中广东截至 10 月 20 日，家装厨卫"焕新"已实现销售额 16.1 亿元，销售 58.8 万套，效果明显。 在标杆地区带动下，各地区政策陆续推进，补贴范围逐步扩大。2024 年 1-9 月家具类商品零售类值累计同比仅为 1.1%，而 10-11 月同比分别达到+7.4%、 +10.5%，以旧换新补贴政策效果明显，11 月增长速度环比提升，表明以旧换 新补贴参与范围在继续扩大。 ...

（分析师：程诗月 执业编码：S1480519050006 电话：010-66555458） 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 东兴晨报 P12 （一）AI 眼镜：AI 眼镜是具有便携和交互性的可穿戴设备，AI 端侧最佳载体之一。目前 AI 智能眼镜发展仍 处于探索期，多家公司布局探索 AI 智能眼镜方案，包括传统手机厂商、互联网大厂、以及初创公司等，2024 年下半年有相关 AI 智能眼镜新品亮相发布。WellsennXR 预测，预计到 2035 年 AI+AR 智能眼镜渗透率有望 达到 70%，全球 AI+AR 智能眼镜销量达到 14 亿副，或将成为下一代通用计算平台和终端。 （二）高速铜连接：高速铜缆 DAC 具有成本低且能最大程度降低功耗的优势，在服务器内部的短距离传输场 景中实现高速平行互联。英伟达作为全球 AI 产业的领航者，GB200NVL72 基于 Blackwell 的架构，在性能上 具有巨大的升级，采用铜缆连接方式作为数据中心柜内连接方式，将助力高速铜互联将进入快速发展时期。 LightCounting 预测，至 2027 年年底，全球高速铜缆的出货量将达到 2000 万条规 ...

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The central economic work conference emphasizes boosting consumption as a key focus, with specific actions aimed at increasing the income and reducing the burden on the middle and low-income groups to enhance their consumption capacity and willingness [1][4][73] - The report anticipates a recovery in food and beverage consumption, particularly in sub-sectors closely related to economic prosperity, such as liquor and condiments, driven by national stimulus policies [4][76] - Companies with continuously improving market share are recommended for investment, including Guizhou Moutai, Anjijia Food, and Three Squirrels [4] Group 2: Construction and Engineering Industry - Major state-owned construction companies are experiencing significant growth in new overseas contracts, with China State Construction Engineering Corporation leading the way [5][64] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese construction firms in international markets, with a notable increase in new contracts from Belt and Road countries [5][64][65] - The report suggests that the positive impact of proactive fiscal and monetary policies will improve demand in the construction sector, recommending companies like China Communications Construction Company and China State Construction [81] Group 3: Banking Industry - The report indicates that government bonds are a major contributor to social financing, with a notable increase in government bond issuance supporting the financial system [9][84] - There is a marginal improvement in long-term loans for residents, while corporate credit remains weak, indicating a need for further recovery in the corporate sector [11][84] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in economic fundamentals and improved credit conditions, with a focus on long-term investment opportunities [85][86] Group 4: Ice and Snow Industry - The ice and snow industry is projected to grow significantly, with government policies supporting the development of ice and snow sports facilities and related economic activities [25][94] - The number of ice and snow venues has increased, indicating a growing interest in winter sports, with a notable rise in both skiing and skating facilities [91] - The report highlights the potential for high-end ski resorts to capture a larger market share, driven by increasing consumer demand and government support for the ice and snow economy [17][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, emphasizing the ongoing trends of hybridization and the acceleration of smart technology adoption [14][19][30]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a sustained trend towards hybridization, supported by government policies promoting vehicle trade-in programs, which have positively impacted consumer demand [31][55]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, reaching 43.8% from January to November 2024, an increase of 9.4 percentage points compared to 2023 [34][58]. - The sales volume of hybrid vehicles has significantly increased, with wholesale sales reaching 4.493 million units from January to November 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 89.3% [89]. - The report highlights the advancements in Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, which has accumulated over 20 billion miles driven, showcasing its safety performance compared to traditional driving methods [44][73]. Summary by Sections 1. Hybridization Trend - The government has implemented policies to boost the automotive market, including increased subsidies for trade-in vehicles, which are expected to enhance domestic sales stability in 2025 [31][55]. - The market share of hybrid vehicles is on the rise, with a notable increase in sales volume and consumer acceptance due to advantages in cost and range compared to pure electric vehicles [89]. 2. Smart Technology Acceleration - The automotive industry is entering a phase of rapid development in smart technology, with leading companies like Tesla and Huawei establishing competitive advantages in data training and smart driving ecosystems [46][47]. - Huawei has significantly invested in smart automotive solutions, achieving substantial revenue growth in this sector, indicating a strong market presence and future potential [74]. 3. Automotive Parts Industry - The profitability of the automotive parts sector is steadily improving, with a gross margin of 17.9% reported for the first three quarters of 2024, up from 17.6% in the previous year [85]. - The total asset scale of automotive parts companies continues to grow, although at a slower pace, indicating a need for improved operational efficiency and cost control [80][88].

Economic Outlook - Powell indicates that the current U.S. economy is strong, with a solid job market and significantly less restrictive policy rates[1] - The dot plot shows a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2025 from 4 times to 2 times, with a median rate of 4%, aligning with expectations[2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is projected to range between 3.7% to 3.85% on the lower end and 4.75% to 5% on the upper end, with models not supporting a breakthrough above 5%[3] Employment and Inflation - The weight of the job market has slightly rebounded, with employment and inflation weights being roughly equal[4] - Powell emphasizes that while the job market is gradually cooling, it remains stable, with low layoff rates and steady job vacancies[5] - The current unemployment rate is low, and inflation is making progress towards the 2% target, although it remains slightly above this target[6] Fiscal Policy and Market Implications - Future fiscal policy impacts have not been fully considered, leading to increased uncertainty regarding inflation[7] - The report maintains a neutral to slightly positive outlook on U.S. equities, noting that the S&P 500 is currently 31% above its long-term trend[8] - Seasonal inflation is expected to rise, which is seen as a healthy economic indicator, with potential continuation into early next year[9]

Group 1: Electronic Industry Investment Outlook - The electronic industry is expected to perform actively in 2024, with the industry index (CITIC) projected to rise by 17.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by industry recovery and AI [2][3] - Key areas of innovation include AI glasses, which are in a developmental phase and expected to reach a market size peak by 2035, and high-speed copper connections, which are anticipated to see global shipments reach 20 million by 2027 [2][3] - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is identified as a critical chip for AI computing demand, with strong market demand despite being dominated by a few international giants [3] Group 2: Bond Market Investment Outlook - The bond market is expected to perform strongly in 2024, with significant declines in yield for both government and corporate bonds, and a notable increase in the supply of government bonds [2][3] - Long-term interest rates are projected to trend downward, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize between 1.7% and 2.0% [2][3] - Investment strategies include focusing on mid-term government bonds to reduce portfolio volatility and selecting high-rated corporate bonds for yield enhancement [2][3] Group 3: Coal Industry Investment Outlook - The coal sector has shown a cumulative increase of 8.62% from early 2024 to December 6, 2024, with stable profitability expected due to long-term contracts stabilizing coal prices [26][27] - Despite challenges from renewable energy, coal remains a primary power source, with demand expected to rise as coal-fired power generation continues to dominate [26][27] - The coal sector's valuation is still low, with a PE ratio of 11.75, indicating potential for value appreciation, especially with increasing cash dividends [27][28] Group 4: Transportation Industry Insights - In November, domestic airlines faced a decline in capacity due to seasonal demand drops, with a 10.4% decrease in capacity compared to October [29][32] - Passenger load factors varied significantly among airlines, with some prioritizing load factors over ticket prices, leading to differing performance outcomes [31][33] - International routes also saw a decline in capacity, but some airlines reported improved load factors compared to previous years, indicating a mixed recovery [34][35] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized boosting consumption as a key task, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending and investment efficiency [36][39] - Specific measures include increasing basic pensions and promoting new consumption models, which are expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector [39][40] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to recover alongside overall consumption growth, particularly in segments closely tied to economic prosperity, such as liquor and condiments [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2][12]. Core Viewpoints - In November, pig prices initially fell before rebounding, with production capacity showing a slight increase. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 34.42 CNY/kg, 17.33 CNY/kg, and 28.69 CNY/kg respectively, with year-on-year changes of 41.98%, 14.72%, and 14.93% [11][26]. - The supply side is characterized by increased market supply due to higher slaughter rates and improved market conditions, while the demand side saw slight improvements due to seasonal consumption patterns [29][33]. - The report anticipates a potential rebound in pig prices before the Spring Festival, although the extent of this rebound is expected to be limited [12][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry consists of 100 listed companies, with a total market value of 132.63 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 100.56 billion CNY. The average price-to-earnings ratio stands at 31.38 [5][6][8]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In November, pig prices experienced a downward trend in early November due to increased supply, followed by a rebound in late November driven by seasonal demand for cured meats. The slaughtering rate increased by 1.64 percentage points to 29.64% [11][29]. - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase, with a total of 40.73 million sows reported in October, reflecting a 0.30% month-on-month increase [12][33]. Sales Data - In November, the average sales prices for major pig farming companies decreased, with Muyuan, Wens Foodstuffs, and New Hope reporting average sales prices of 16.22 CNY/kg, 16.71 CNY/kg, and 16.49 CNY/kg respectively, reflecting declines of 5.53%, 5.27%, and 5.07% month-on-month [39][41]. - The total number of pigs slaughtered by 17 listed companies in November was 14.21 million, a slight increase of 0.38% month-on-month and a 3.58% increase year-on-year [41][44]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the profitability of breeding companies is expected to remain robust in 2024, particularly for leading companies with cost advantages. The industry is anticipated to undergo valuation recovery as consumption-boosting policies are implemented [12][33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" [1][14]. Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, indicating a gradual rebound in consumer demand [1]. - The report highlights a clear trend towards high cost-performance consumption, with essential goods showing steady growth while optional goods exhibit varied performance [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the impact of government policies on consumer behavior, particularly in categories like home appliances and furniture, which have seen significant sales growth due to supportive measures [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods for the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 353,564 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1]. - Online retail sales reached 108,928 billion yuan, growing by 8.6% year-on-year, indicating a strong shift towards online shopping [1][7]. Consumer Behavior - Essential consumption categories such as food and daily necessities showed robust growth, with year-on-year increases of 9.9% and 2.2%, respectively [1]. - Optional consumption categories displayed mixed results, with categories like home appliances and audio-visual equipment experiencing a notable increase of 20.5% year-on-year [2]. Retail Performance - In the first nine months of 2024, retail sales in urban areas grew by 3.2%, while rural areas saw a growth of 4.4% [1]. - The report notes that online consumption growth outpaced offline, with online sales accounting for 26.7% of total retail sales [7]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-performing segments within the retail industry and companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences towards cost-effective products [2][6].

Group 1: Coal Industry Insights - The coal sector is expected to see a price increase after a decline in 2024, with long-term contracts stabilizing prices, leading to enhanced profitability stability [1] - Despite the impact of renewable energy on coal power generation, coal remains the primary source of electricity, with increasing demand for thermal coal driven by rising electricity generation [1] - The supply side is constrained due to limited capacity expansion approvals under the "dual carbon" policy, maintaining a tight supply situation that supports sustained industry profitability [1] - As of December 6, 2024, the coal sector's PE ratio is 11.75 and PB ratio is 1.55, both below historical medians, indicating low valuation levels [1] Group 2: Market Strategy and Consumer Trends - The A-share market is expected to maintain a structural bull market, focusing on consumer technology and new consumption areas highlighted by the central economic work conference [2] - New consumption sectors such as the "first launch economy," "ice and snow economy," and "silver-haired economy" are anticipated to become market focal points, covering various industries including manufacturing and retail [2] - Investors are advised to focus on long-term positions driven by policy support, particularly in large consumer and technology sectors [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations in Coal Sector - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies with stable long-term profitability such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration like China Power Investment and Xinji Energy [3] - Growth-oriented companies such as Huayang Co., Yanzhou Coal, and Huaibei Mining are also highlighted, along with state-owned enterprises leading in reform [3] Group 4: Electronic Industry Trends - The electronic industry index has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 17.39% increase from early 2024 to December 6, 2024 [26] - The current hardware innovation cycle, combined with the AI wave, is expected to usher in a new development phase for the electronic industry [26] - Key areas of focus include AI glasses, high-speed copper connections, and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with significant growth projections for each segment [27][28][30] Group 5: Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is anticipated to experience a valuation recovery, with macro policies supporting credit growth and improving asset quality expectations [35] - The expected credit growth for 2025 is projected to be around 19 trillion yuan, with a stable increase in social financing [36] - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize due to improved deposit costs and effective interest rate transmission mechanisms [37] Group 6: Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes boosting consumption as a priority, with specific actions aimed at increasing the income and consumption capacity of low- and middle-income groups [46][47] - The anticipated recovery in consumption, particularly in food and beverage sectors, is expected to be driven by policies supporting employment and income growth [48] - Key companies to watch include Kweichow Moutai, Anjuke Food, and Three Squirrels, which are expected to benefit from market share gains [48]