| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------|-------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------|-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 商贸零售&社会服务行业 | 2025 \n望：政策激发消费活力，聚焦高景气赛道 | 年投资展 \n | 2024 年 12 月 27 日 \n看好/维持 \n商贸零售 行业报告 | | | 分析师 刘田田 电话： | | 010-66554038 | 邮箱： liutt@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： S1480521010001 | | | 分析师 魏宇萌 电话： | | 010-66555446 | 邮箱： weiym@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： S1480522090004 | 投资摘要： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the construction and building materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [12][19]. Core Insights - The real estate sector's negative cycle continues to impact various aspects of the Chinese economy, constraining domestic demand and healthy economic development. The decline in new and second-hand housing prices has persisted for nearly three years, although there are signs of a slowdown in the cycle's acceleration [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the return to a long-term healthy development trajectory for the real estate sector is essential to avoid systemic risks for the Chinese economy. As the downward momentum in real estate weakens and policy measures begin to take effect, the pessimistic expectations from prolonged declines are expected to improve, leading to a recovery in industry valuations [2][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The negative cycle in real estate has affected the real estate chain, government chain, consumption chain, and financial chain, significantly constraining the release of domestic demand and impacting overall economic health. The cumulative income from land use rights transfer and general public revenue decreased by 22.4% and 0.6% respectively from January to September 2024 [1][11]. - The cumulative social financing scale from January to November 2024 was 29.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.62%, with a more significant drop of 20.47% when excluding government bond issuance [1][11]. Policy Measures - 2024 is seen as a year to counteract the drag from real estate, address local government debt, and promote new productive forces. The report highlights the importance of government bond issuance and monetary policy adjustments to stimulate domestic demand [11][31]. - The report outlines that various policies have been introduced since the fourth quarter of 2021 to address the issues in the real estate sector, including measures to stimulate housing demand and support the normal operation of real estate companies [16][31]. Industry Outlook - The construction and building materials industry is expected to return to a new balance due to supply-side optimization and stabilization in the real estate sector, which will improve valuations and performance. The report notes that the industry has faced intense competition and many small to medium enterprises are struggling [14][15]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong competitive advantages and risk resilience, as they are likely to benefit the most from supply-side improvements and potential mergers and acquisitions [18][19]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies in the industry, with several companies receiving a strong buy recommendation based on their expected performance and market conditions [19][20].

Group 1: Metal Industry - The company is actively integrating into the world-class salt lake industry, entering fields such as magnesium and lithium extraction through equity investments [2] - The company owns the Qinghai Tuanjie Lake magnesium salt mine, with a resource amount of 30.4625 million tons and a magnesium chloride grade of 36%, with a remaining exploitable lifespan of 60 years [2] - In 2023, the company's magnesium product revenue reached 462 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.29%, with a gross margin of 21.69%, up 3.93 percentage points from 2022 [2] - The company plans to produce 217,900 tons of electrolytic copper in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [13] - The company is expected to produce 128,800 tons of zinc ingots in 2024, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year [54] - The company forecasts revenues of 49.62 billion yuan, 55.085 billion yuan, and 60.923 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding net profits of 3.843 billion yuan, 4.642 billion yuan, and 5.486 billion yuan [55] Group 2: Electronic Industry - The electronic industry is entering a new development phase driven by hardware innovation and the AI wave, with a recommendation to focus on marginal changes in the industry [5] - The electronic industry index has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 17.39% compared to 14.30% for the CSI 300 [16] - The rise of AI models has led to a surge in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), with predictions that the HBM market will grow to $7.95 billion by 2029 [58][60] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The WeChat store's "gift-giving" feature is expected to significantly increase online sales during major holidays, benefiting companies in the snack food sector [8][50] - The feature allows users to easily send gifts, enhancing user engagement and potentially increasing purchase frequency for participating companies [20][50] - Companies like Three Squirrels and Qiaqia Foods are expected to benefit from this new channel, particularly during the upcoming Spring Festival [50]

以报告日后的 6 个月内，公司股价相对于同期市场基准指数的表现为标准定义： 强烈推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 15％以上； 行业投资评级（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指 数）： 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 东兴晨报 P1 2024 年 12 月 26 日星期四 A 股新股日历（本周网上发行新股） *价格单位为元/股 *价格单位为元/股 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 【东兴有色金属】金属行业 2025 年度展望：流动性周期切换叠加库存周期 新一轮基钦周期开启有助商品价格弹性释放。从 2003 年 2024 年，我们观察 发现，市场已经经历了 5 轮库存周期的切换。每轮库存周期的变化重点有分 化，而从库存周期的变化角度观察，当前或已经到了主动去库存周期的尾声。 当前，市场在低库存状态下进入被动库存调整阶段，库存的变化受订单的实 际推动及行业需求预期的变动影响，而企业利润率及有效现金流亦对库存周 期的变化起到实质影响。考虑到低库存状态下经济新动能的有效带动，新一 轮基钦周期的开启或令行业由被动库存操作向主动补库存转变（从 ...

Group 1 - The investment rating for the aluminum industry shows a significant increase in public fund allocation from 0.01% in Q3 2020 to 0.7% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in investment attractiveness [1] - The core viewpoint highlights that the average PE (TTM) of the aluminum industry has decreased from approximately 30X in 2020 to about 13X in 2024, suggesting an improvement in the safety margin for investments [1] - The report indicates that the pricing logic for alumina and aluminum products remains upward due to supply rigidity, which is expected to maintain high industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The global gold supply has entered a structurally tight state, with supply-demand fundamentals expected to determine the pricing floor for gold [2] - The report notes a significant increase in central bank and ETF gold consumption over the past decade, indicating a structural change in gold consumption patterns [6] - Historical data shows that gold prices tend to rise during U.S. interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 66.7% during such periods [18][44] Group 3 - The global platinum market is experiencing a structural shortage, with supply showing signs of contraction since 2016 [50] - The report predicts that global platinum demand will reach 7.22 million ounces in 2024, reflecting a 20.33% increase from 2020 [28] - The supply of molybdenum is characterized by strong rigidity, with a projected price increase potential of nearly 40% due to tight supply-demand dynamics [37] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity cycles and inventory cycles in driving commodity prices, suggesting a potential resurgence in the metal industry [38][39] - The analysis indicates that the metal industry should focus on four main lines: industrial metals, new materials, small metals with elastic demand, and precious metals with strong hedging properties [43][79] - The overall financial health of the industry has improved, with average ROE rising from 2.49% to 8.31% and average ROA increasing from 0.98% to 3.53% from Q1 2021 to Q3 2024 [89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the transportation industry in 2025, emphasizing the selection of sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics [26][45]. Core Insights - The transportation industry has experienced a notable trend of increasing volume and decreasing prices throughout the year, significantly influenced by consumer downgrade [6][17]. - The report highlights that the demand for stable returns is a long-term trend, with the current interest rate reduction cycle enhancing the safety margin for high-dividend highway stocks [3][29]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with expected supply-demand improvements and high earnings certainty, particularly those benefiting from the interest rate reduction cycle [7][46]. Summary by Sections Industry Review and Outlook - The transportation industry has seen a clear trend of volume increase and price decrease, with consumer downgrade playing a crucial role in this change [17][39]. - The industry is expected to gradually shift from oversupply to a balanced supply-demand situation, with profit elasticity likely to be released [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing price competition and the need for policy regulation to address potential challenges in 2025 [27][45]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of price competition, with performance differentiation among companies becoming more pronounced [2][66]. - The report notes that the growth of low-priced items has exceeded market expectations, leading to a renewed focus on market share by leading companies like Zhongtong [28][50]. - The competition will likely intensify in 2025, as major players re-engage in the battle for market share, potentially increasing the intensity of price wars [71][72]. Highway Sector - The highway sector is benefiting from its strong cash flow and high dividend characteristics, attracting continuous market attention [9][29]. - The report indicates that the valuation of highway stocks is improving due to the reassessment of toll revenue and the decline in risk-free interest rates [29][60]. - The sector is currently in a high-certainty upward cycle, with increasing focus on dividend payouts [9][60]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is experiencing slow demand recovery, with low growth in supply expected to gradually alleviate oversupply issues [29][31]. - The report highlights that passenger load factors have significantly improved compared to previous years, although ticket prices remain lower than pre-pandemic levels [10][38]. - The report suggests that the valuation of aviation stocks may be better reflected through operating cash flow metrics rather than traditional PE and PB ratios [31][46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a shift in the company's main drivers from direct retail supermarkets to bulk sales and e-commerce, with a current store penetration rate of 44% and a potential opening space of 81,000 stores nationwide [2][3] - The company is expected to see significant growth in its bulk snack channel, which is projected to account for approximately 25% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, driven by natural growth from brand store expansions, increased SKU counts, new strategic partnerships, and core product sales growth [3][4] - The total market size for the bulk snack industry is estimated to reach 210.6 billion yuan, with the company currently holding a market share of about 35% [3][4] Group 2 - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 51.98 billion, 64.29 billion, and 76.49 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 6.45 billion, 8.27 billion, and 10.35 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.44%, 28.24%, and 24.9% [4] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum through its expansion in Douyin, bulk sales, and distribution channels, indicating a robust long-term growth potential [4] Group 3 - The chemical industry is anticipated to see a marginal recovery in 2025, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with specific sub-sectors expected to present good investment opportunities [5][7] - The report highlights three major investment directions: sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, leading enterprises driven by capital expenditure and R&D, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand and domestic substitution [6][7][25] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of the furniture retail sector, noting that the implementation of "old-for-new" subsidy policies has significantly improved sales figures, with a notable increase in retail values in October and November 2024 [69][70] - The anticipated continuation of subsidy policies into 2025 is expected to further support demand in the home furnishings market, particularly benefiting compliant and financially robust companies [71]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strongly Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price range of 58.88-35.78 yuan [7][15] Core Views - The company has transitioned from being primarily driven by direct supermarket sales to being driven by discount snack stores and e-commerce, with distribution as the foundation [97] - The company's growth potential is strong, driven by multiple channels including TikTok, discount snack stores, and distribution networks [15] - The company's revenue from discount snack channels is expected to reach 30 billion yuan in the future, with a potential 4x growth compared to 2023 [11][58] Channel Development - The company's traditional supermarket channel revenue has declined from 94% in 2020 to 59% in 2023, but still grew by 12.32% YoY in 2023 [1] - The discount snack channel contributed 25% of total revenue in H1 2024, with future growth driven by increased SKUs, new strategic partnerships, and core product sales [5][6] - E-commerce revenue grew by 48.40% YoY in H1 2024, accounting for 23.6% of total revenue, up 9.1 percentage points from 2022 [60] Market Potential - The discount snack market is projected to reach 210.6 billion yuan, with the potential for 81,000 stores nationwide [10][11] - The company's revenue from the discount snack channel is expected to grow to 30 billion yuan, driven by increased market share and SKU expansion [58] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to be 5.198 billion yuan in 2024, 6.429 billion yuan in 2025, and 7.649 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 26.44%, 28.24%, and 24.9% respectively [15] - Net profit is expected to be 645 million yuan in 2024, 827 million yuan in 2025, and 1.035 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 26.44%, 28.24%, and 24.9% respectively [15] Competitive Landscape - The company is the only fully self-manufacturing company among the top five snack brands, with a natural GMV share of 41.74% on TikTok in Q1 2024 [37] - The company's SKU count in discount snack stores has increased from 40 in 2023 to over 50 in 2024, with further growth expected [33] Regional Expansion - The company's sales are concentrated in Central China, accounting for 39% of total sales in 2023, with significant growth potential in other regions [77] - The company has 3,315 distributors nationwide, with a focus on Central and East China, and plans to expand further into other regions [159]

行 业 研 究 （1）供需格局有望改善的子行业。结合前述我们对于国内化工供给和需求格局的分析，我们认为，从供给端来看，受到行 业竞争加剧、市场价格下行、投资回报率降低等因素的影响，国内化工行业固定资产投资增速有所放缓，部分产品产能投放 趋于尾声。此外，国家节能降碳政策的要求驱动相关高耗能行业落后产能逐步淘汰改造。叠加海外老旧化工品产能退出力度 加大；从需求端来看，国内制造业需求和出口需求均已有明显改善，目前国内宏观经济政策持续发力，整体需求端有望持续 改善；此外，大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换新等具体政策，也有助于拉动汽车、家电产业链相关化工品的需求。因此我们 认为国内部分化工子行业的供需格局有改善趋势，我们看好钛白粉、添加剂（氨基酸和维生素）、化纤、制冷剂等子行业的供 需格局有望逐步好转。 投资策略：我们认为 2025 年国内化工行业供需格局有改善预期、行业景气度有望边际回暖。不论是从价格周期角度、还是 行业竞争格局边际变化的角度来看，我们认为部分细分领域存在较好的投资机会。我们建议重点关注：①供需格局有望改善 的子行业；②资本开支扩张和研发驱动成长的龙头企业；③受益于需求增加、或国产替代持续推进的部分高端化 ...

东兴晨报 P1 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 深证成指 10,671.43 1.27 中小板 6,517.45 1.44 香港恒生 20098.29 1.08 名称 价格 行业 发行日 星图测控 6.92 计算机 20241224 中力股份 20.32 机械设备 20241224 分析师推荐 出（20241219） 按消费类型看，必选消费持续稳健，可选品类表现分化。按消费类型来看， 2024 年 11 月商品零售额同比增长 2.8%，餐饮收入同比增长 4%，餐饮消费增 速反超商品零售增速，也受到双十一大促时间错配扰动。商品零售中，粮油 食品、饮料类、日用品类销售额分别同比+10.1%、-4.3%和+1.3%，必选消费 表现较为稳健；可选消费品类表现分化，化妆品类、服饰鞋帽类、金银珠宝 类等当月同比负增长，家用电器类、家居类等同比双位数增长，表现亮眼。 风险提示：消费需求不足，市场竞争加剧等。 行业供需表现：11 月猪价先跌后涨，均价继续回调。农业农村部监测数据显 A 股新股日历（日内上市新股） 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 东兴晨报 P2 后市周期预判：从阶段性节奏来看，年末生猪供需两端均有提振，供给端 ...