Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [79]. Core Viewpoints - The bus industry is poised to become a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to replicate the scale of the Chinese market within 3-5 years [2]. - The domestic price war in the bus market has ended, which is expected to lead to a recovery in demand driven by tourism and public transport renewal needs, potentially returning to 2019 levels [2]. - The report recommends focusing on the bus sector, particularly on companies Yutong and King Long, both of which are expected to show strong growth and profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In September 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China reached 54,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 21% [9][10]. - The wholesale volume for September was 56,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34% [9][10]. - The terminal sales volume for buses was 57,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28% [18]. Company Performance - Yutong's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to grow from 4.63 billion to 6.68 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 19%, and 21% respectively [4]. - King Long is anticipated to see a significant turnaround, with net profits projected to rise from 440 million to 830 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 182%, 45%, and 28% [4]. Export Performance - In September 2025, the bus industry exported 5,596 units, with year-on-year growth of 52% [51]. - The export of large and medium buses showed a significant increase, with Yutong and King Long maintaining strong market shares in the export sector [62].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 宁德时代（300750） 2025 年三季报点评：盈利亮眼，业绩持续高 增可期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 400,917 | 362,013 | 422,604 | 534,947 | 636,930 | | 同比（%） | 22.01 | (9.70) | 16.74 | 26.58 | 19.06 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 44,121 | 50,745 | 68,996 | 86,240 | 106,551 | | 同比（%） | 43.58 | 15.01 | 35.97 | 24.99 | 23.55 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 9.67 | 11.12 | 15.12 | 18.90 | 23.35 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 37.90 | 32.95 | 24.24 | 19.39 | 15.69 | [Tabl ...

Macro Strategy - The GDP growth rate remains resilient, with an expectation to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [1][22] - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, while cumulative growth for the first three quarters was 5.2% [22] - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [22] - External demand outperformed expectations with exports growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while internal demand continued to face pressure [22] Fixed Income Market - The bond market remains strong amid ongoing Sino-US trade tensions, but short-term participation is advised with caution [3] - The yield curve has steepened since the "anti-involution" policy was introduced in July 2025, with the 10-1Y spread at 38 basis points, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The recommendation is to shift positions from 30Y to 10Y bonds to mitigate duration risk while maintaining a balanced approach [3] Company Analysis Fuyao Glass (600660) - The Q3 performance met expectations, with adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7] - The revised net profit estimates are 97.10 billion, 111.11 billion, and 131.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.72, 4.26, and 5.05 yuan [7] Chuangfeng Power (603129) - The company reported a year-on-year net profit increase of 11% in Q3, driven by strong demand for all-terrain vehicles [8] - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 18.7 billion, 24.7 billion, and 27.4 billion yuan respectively [8] Sien Electric (002028) - The company exceeded market expectations with a Q3 revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.99 billion yuan, up 49% [9] - The international market's high demand is expected to continue driving profitability [9] Longjin Environmental Protection (600388) - The company reported a 20.5% year-on-year increase in performance for the first three quarters, with significant contributions from green electricity and energy storage [20][21] Hikvision (002415) - The company achieved a net profit of 93.19 billion yuan in Q3, a 14.94% year-on-year increase, with a focus on AI and overseas growth [16][17] Hanwujing (688256) - The company reported a Q3 revenue growth of 1333%, with a net profit of 16.05 billion yuan [18] - The product ecosystem is expanding, supporting various AI applications across multiple industries [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company focuses on the mosquito repellent and baby care segments, positioning its products as "high quality and cost-effective," with significant strategic space due to its brand and product category management [3] - Despite a downward adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 due to adverse weather conditions affecting sales, the company is expected to regain high growth with the launch of new baby care products [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.67%, and a net profit of 790 million yuan, a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year [8] - The company's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 12.38 billion yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.98% [8] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 58.3%, slightly down by 0.06 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 alone was 59.0%, up by 1.39 percentage points year-on-year [8] Product Category Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the revenue from mosquito repellent, baby care, and essential oil categories was 5.1 billion, 5.5 billion, and 1.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.9%, 24.6%, and a decline of 12.3% [8] - The mosquito repellent products saw significant sales growth due to factors like the dengue fever outbreak, while baby care product sales were impacted by higher autumn and winter temperatures [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fuyao Glass is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - Fuyao Glass is a global leader in the automotive glass industry, with an increasing market share and rising average selling price (ASP) per vehicle driving its sustained growth [3] - The company is in its third round of capital expenditure, with expansion projects in the U.S. and other locations expected to enhance its global market share [3] - The penetration of high-value-added products, such as HUD windshields and panoramic roofs, is contributing to the growth in ASP and overall revenue [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Fuyao Glass achieved total revenue of 33,302 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7,064 million yuan, up 28.93% year-on-year [9] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 11,855 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.86% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.75% [9] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 37.90%, slightly down by 0.59 percentage points from the previous quarter [9] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 19.06%, down 4.99 percentage points from the previous quarter [9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 9,710 million yuan, 11,111 million yuan, and 13,174 million yuan, respectively [10] - Corresponding EPS for these years are projected to be 3.72 yuan, 4.26 yuan, and 5.05 yuan, with P/E ratios of 17.62, 15.40, and 12.99, respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 11% in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for all-terrain vehicles [7] - The company is a leader in the domestic all-terrain vehicle and motorcycle markets, with three major business segments experiencing high growth [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.87 billion, 2.47 billion, and 2.74 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.0, 14.4, and 13.0 [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.04 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 11% in net profit attributable to shareholders [7] - The all-terrain vehicle segment saw sales of 49,000 units, with an average selling price (ASP) of 48,000 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [7] - The motorcycle segment experienced a decline in domestic sales, with 66,000 units sold, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [7] - The extreme core segment reported a remarkable growth of 349% in sales, reaching 193,000 units [7] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2025 was 26.1%, a decrease attributed to the impact of tariffs and a higher proportion of lower-margin products [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 15.04 billion RMB in 2024 to 29.31 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.18% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.47 billion RMB in 2024 to 2.74 billion RMB in 2027, with a CAGR of 26.99% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 9.65 RMB in 2024 to 17.94 RMB in 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term focus is on the "15th Five-Year Plan," while mid-term strategies await the economic work conference for direction [1]. - The construction materials sector has shown a decline of 4.11% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 2.22% [4]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic circulation and technological advancements in the industry, particularly in the context of the upcoming economic policies [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 346.8 CNY/ton, down by 2.3 CNY/ton from last week and down 61.8 CNY/ton from the same period in 2024. The average cement inventory ratio is 67.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from last week [4][20][15]. - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1301.0 CNY/ton, up 11.2 CNY/ton from last week and up 46.6% from 2024. Inventory levels have increased, indicating a potential oversupply [45][51]. - **Fiberglass**: The market for fiberglass remains stable, with prices for non-alkali yarn around 3250-3700 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.93% [4][6]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing weak demand, particularly in northern regions due to weather conditions, while southern regions face financial constraints [13][14]. - The glass market is characterized by high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations [44][51]. - The report emphasizes the need for supply-side reforms and the potential for price stabilization in the fiberglass sector as excess capacity is addressed [7][8]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector's valuation is at historical lows, with expectations for policy support to enhance profitability and valuation recovery [4][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the cement industry, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, are well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and improved market conditions [4][6].

Market Outlook and ETF Strategy - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations and consolidation, with a cautious funding participation due to reduced trading volume and activity levels [2][6] - The volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index over the past 30 trading days is at a relatively low historical level, indicating insufficient momentum for a significant upward movement [2][7] - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on broad-based, strategic, and style ETFs due to the current market's rapid rotation and limited directional consensus among funds [2] Industry and Sector Trends - The technology growth sector is currently deemed to have a low probability of success, leading to its exclusion from the current allocation strategy, with a focus on defensive sectors instead [2][4] - The report recommends increasing allocations to defensive sectors such as coal and electricity ETFs, while also considering the performance support from the non-ferrous metals sector [4] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of maintaining some exposure to large-cap growth assets, particularly in technology, if market sentiment improves towards the end of the month [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The environmental protection industry is benefiting from favorable policies regarding non-electric renewable energy consumption, particularly in biofuels and green hydrogen ammonia [1][11] - Companies like Huanlan Environment and Longjing Environmental are showing strong performance, with significant growth in net profits and contributions from renewable energy sectors [1][11] Policy Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced new assessments for non-electric renewable energy consumption, which will benefit biofuels, green hydrogen ammonia, and green heating [9][11] - The policy aims to set minimum consumption targets for renewable energy across key industries and regions, enhancing market demand for related technologies and business models [11][12] Company Performance - Huanlan Environment reported a 16% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the consolidation of Guangdong Feng and internal cost reductions [1][11] - Longjing Environmental's net profit increased by 55% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with significant contributions from green electricity and energy storage projects [1][11] Waste Management Insights - The waste management sector is experiencing improved cash flow and dividend payouts due to reduced capital expenditures and enhanced operational efficiency [11][13] - Companies like Junxin and Green Power are expected to maintain high dividend ratios, reflecting their strong cash flow positions [13][14] Water Management Perspective - The water management sector is poised for growth, with expected increases in free cash flow and dividend payouts as capital expenditures decline [17][18] - Companies such as Yuehai Investment and Hongcheng Environment are highlighted for their stable performance and high dividend ratios [17][18] Sanitation Equipment Trends - The penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles has increased by 6.53 percentage points to 16.71% in the first eight months of 2025, with significant growth in sales [19][21] - The overall sales of sanitation vehicles reached 49,577 units, with new energy vehicles accounting for a notable share [19][23] Biofuel Market - The average price of waste cooking oil remains stable, with improvements in profit margins for biodiesel production [29][30] - The price difference between biodiesel and waste cooking oil indicates a potential for profitability, despite current market challenges [29][30] Lithium Battery Recycling - The price of cobalt sulfate has surged, improving the profitability of lithium battery recycling projects [30][31] - The report indicates a positive trend in the profitability of recycling operations, driven by rising raw material prices [30][31]

Group 1 - The report indicates that recent events suggest short-term volatility in the Hong Kong stock market may not have ended, but the long-term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - Economic data, US-China tariff news, US tech earnings, and the Fourth Plenary Session are expected to influence trading patterns and styles in the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The technology sector is facing increased volatility risks, with US tech earnings impacting the trading rhythm of Chinese tech stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the US stock market showed resilience despite concerns over US-China tensions and credit worries, with the Nasdaq leading gains at 2.1% [1][4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance suggests a likelihood of maintaining the current policy path, with a potential rate cut in October being the optimal solution [1][5] - The report notes that the average win rate for October over the past decade is low, while the advantages of November and December are relatively prominent [1][23] Group 3 - The report discusses the ongoing US government shutdown, which has entered its third week, potentially exacerbating negative impacts on the economy [3] - Concerns over credit quality in regional banks have emerged, but these are viewed as isolated incidents rather than indicative of a broader liquidity crisis [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring US-China trade relations, as further escalation could negatively impact the US economy and inflation risks [3][4] Group 4 - The report notes that developed markets saw an increase of 1.4% while emerging markets declined by 0.3% during the week [4][12] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 8.0%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.0%, with public utilities leading sector gains [4][12] - The report highlights significant inflows into financials and non-essential consumer sectors, while the information technology sector experienced outflows [4][12] Group 5 - The report indicates that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $446.43 billion, with the US stock ETFs leading at $231.7 billion [7][49] - The technology sector was the top recipient of inflows among global stock ETFs, while the communication sector experienced the most significant outflows [7][51] - The report also notes that institutional investors marginally increased their holdings in gold, with significant inflows into major gold ETFs [6][54]