Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the initiation of the "Return to A-share" process by Guangda Environment, emphasizing that cash flow value remains unchanged despite capital expenditure preferences [1][9] - The white paper on carbon peak and carbon neutrality outlines a clear timeline for energy transition and carbon market construction, indicating significant future opportunities in the sector [14][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection sector is experiencing a strong performance, with a projected increase in operating cash flow and a focus on high-quality growth through rational capital expenditure [12][19] - The report notes a 12% increase in net profit for the solid waste sector in Q1-Q3 2025, with a 2.7 percentage point increase in gross margin [19] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huanlan Environment, Green Power, and Guangda Environment, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and dividend potential [1][12] - It suggests that the water service sector is poised for growth, with companies like Yuehai Investment and Xirong Environment showing strong dividend potential due to declining capital expenditures [24][25] Financial Performance - Guangda Environment's operating cash flow is expected to exceed 10 billion HKD in 2025, with a significant reduction in financial expenses and an anticipated dividend payout ratio of up to 98% [12][19] - The report indicates that the solid waste sector's free cash flow has improved significantly, with a 28% increase in operating cash flow in Q1-Q3 2025 compared to the previous year [19] Market Developments - The report notes a 63.18% year-on-year increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, indicating a growing market penetration of 17.40% [24][27] - The white paper emphasizes the importance of energy structure transformation, with non-fossil energy expected to account for over 35% of the energy mix by 2030 [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - Employment data shows improvement, and there are expectations for policy support [1] - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 0.97%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.05% [3] - The cement market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, particularly in southern regions, while prices are expected to remain stable [5][10] - The glass market is under pressure with high inventory levels and weak demand, but medium-term supply-side adjustments are anticipated [41][43] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see improved profitability due to supply constraints and increasing demand from new applications [5] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.3 RMB/ton, up 1.2 RMB/ton from last week but down 74.8 RMB/ton from the same period last year. The average cement inventory level is 69.8%, with an average shipment rate of 46.2% [11][18] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 1.9 RMB/ton from last week and down 258.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels are at 5962 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 54 million from last week [43][45] - **Fiberglass**: Prices for fiberglass remain stable, with a focus on high-end products. The market is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints persist [5] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic indicators, with a focus on companies involved in the export supply chain and home renovation [3][5] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and domestic semiconductor development, recommending companies in the cleanroom engineering sector [5] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector has shown a positive trend compared to broader market indices, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The report suggests that the cement industry is at a historical low in terms of price-to-book ratios, presenting opportunities for investment as policies are expected to support recovery [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is initiating the "Back to A" process to diversify its financing channels, which will support long-term development. The company plans to issue up to 800 million shares in RMB and list them on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its H+A dual-platform layout [7][8] - The company has shown a significant improvement in free cash flow, which turned positive in 2024, and has increased its dividend payout ratio to 42% [7][8] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on rational capital expenditure and careful expansion into overseas high-quality projects, ensuring sustainable growth [7][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is projected to decline from 32,495 in 2023 to 28,089 in 2027, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.92% in 2023 and a gradual decline thereafter [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million HKD) is forecasted to decrease from 4,429 in 2023 to 4,036 in 2027, with a notable drop of 23.75% in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.66 in 2027, reflecting a gradual improvement in profitability [1] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The company has controlled capital expenditure, with a projected decrease to 40 billion RMB in 2025, while free cash flow is expected to exceed 10 billion HKD [7][8] - The report indicates that the company received government subsidies of 2.064 billion RMB in July-August 2025, which is significantly higher than the previous year's amount [7][8] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 8.5x for 2025, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.59x, indicating potential undervaluation compared to industry peers [1][7] - The report suggests that the company's A-share valuation is likely to be higher than its H-share valuation, with historical premiums observed in similar companies [7][8]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 17 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧洲&中国气 价微降 增持（维持） 行业走势 -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2024/11/18 2025/3/18 2025/7/16 2025/11/13 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《天气转冷美国&欧洲气价上涨，中 国供应充足气价微降》 2025-11-10 《天气转冷美国&中国气价上涨，欧 洲燃气发电出力下降气价回落》 2025-11-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧洲&中国气价微降。截至 2025/11/14,美国 HH/欧洲 TTF/东亚 JKM/中国 LNG 出厂/中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has proposed the integration of renewable energy, aiming for a total installed capacity of wind and solar power to reach 360 million kilowatts by 2035. This is part of a broader strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7%-10% from peak levels and increase the share of non-fossil energy consumption to over 30% by 2035 [4][6]. - As of September 2025, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power in China reached 1.708 billion kilowatts, accounting for 46% of the national power generation capacity. In the first three quarters of 2025, the combined generation from wind and solar reached 1.73 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing 22.3% of total electricity consumption [4][6]. Industry Data Tracking Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in August 2025 was 388 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2% but a month-on-month increase of 1.3% [28]. Coal Prices - As of November 14, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 834 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 33.4 RMB/ton [36]. Water Conditions - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 174.42 meters as of November 14, 2025, which is normal compared to previous years. The inflow and outflow rates increased by 87.3% and 50.9% year-on-year, respectively [44]. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption from January to September 2025 was 7.7675 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The growth rates for different sectors were 10.2% for the primary industry, 3.4% for the secondary industry, 7.5% for the tertiary industry, and 5.6% for urban and rural residents [13]. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation from January to September 2025 was 7.26 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The generation from various sources showed mixed results: thermal power decreased by 1.2%, hydropower by 1.1%, nuclear power increased by 9.2%, wind power by 10.1%, and solar power by 24.2% [18]. Installed Capacity - In the first half of 2025, new installed capacity included 25.78 million kilowatts for thermal power (up 41.3% year-on-year), 3.93 million kilowatts for hydropower (down 21.2% year-on-year), 51.39 million kilowatts for wind power (up 98.9% year-on-year), and 212.21 million kilowatts for solar power (up 107.1% year-on-year) [4][18]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued thermal power investments, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and consider opportunities in charging station and solar asset infrastructure investments [4]. - Recommended stocks include: - Thermal Power: Jingtian Energy, Jingneng Power, Datang Power - Charging Station Equipment: Teruid, Shenghong Shares - Solar Assets: Nanjing Energy, Longxin Group - Green Electricity: Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, Three Gorges Energy, Longjing Environmental Protection - Hydropower: Yangtze Power - Nuclear Power: China National Nuclear Power, China General Nuclear Power [4].

Core Insights - The AI ecosystem continues to expand rapidly, with three clear main lines: strengthening computing infrastructure, advancing models and applications, and accelerating industrial layout by enterprises [2] - Computing power and infrastructure remain the core battleground, with significant investments in data centers and cloud services, indicating a consensus that "computing power is the basic energy" of the industry [2] - The iteration of models and capabilities is rapidly expanding application boundaries, with major updates from various companies enhancing performance and cost-effectiveness, facilitating broader adoption of AI by enterprises and developers [3] - The AI sector in the US stock market has shown volatility, but the fundamental support from leading companies' business progress and targeted collaborations is noteworthy, with a focus on performance realization and commercial closure [4] Weekly Highlights - Anthropic announced a $50 billion data center partnership with Fluidstack to build customized facilities in Texas and New York, expected to create approximately 800 long-term jobs and 2,400 construction jobs, enhancing its computing power sovereignty [5] - Baidu officially launched its Wenxin 5.0 model with 24 trillion parameters, utilizing a unified multimodal modeling technology that significantly enhances its capabilities across various media types [5] - OpenAI released the GPT-5.1 series, which includes two core variants, enhancing conversational fluency and emotional intelligence, while also improving task execution speed [5] Market Performance - The AI sector's performance in the US stock market has been mixed, with notable fluctuations in stock prices among major tech companies, while the A-share market shows increased interest in AI infrastructure-related sectors, particularly benefiting from AI data center demands [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.07% from November 10 to November 14, outperforming the overall market index [14]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to maintain a bullish outlook in the medium term despite short-term fluctuations due to changing interest rate expectations [4][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the non-ferrous metals sector ranked 16th among 31 sectors, outperforming the index by 1.25 percentage points [14]. - Precious metals increased by 2.77%, energy metals by 2.47%, and industrial metals by 1.56%, while small metals and new materials declined by 1.42% and 3.22%, respectively [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices rose with LME copper at $10,846 per ton (up 1.41%) and SHFE copper at ¥86,900 per ton (up 1.12%). Supply remains weak, with Codelco's September production down 7.2% year-on-year [2][31]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $2,859 per ton (up 1.41%), driven by increased demand from the electric vehicle sector, where sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales in October [3][35]. - **Zinc**: Prices fell with LME zinc at $3,015 per ton (down 1.70%) and SHFE zinc at ¥22,470 per ton (down 1.30%). Zinc inventories increased, indicating a bearish trend [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin rose to $36,860 per ton (up 2.90%) due to reduced exports from Indonesia, which halved in October [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,084.40 per ounce (up 1.91%), while SHFE gold was at ¥953.20 per gram (up 3.47%). The resumption of U.S. government operations alleviated liquidity concerns, boosting prices [4][49]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish comments and the lack of supporting economic data have led to a decrease in December rate cut expectations from 95% to around 50%, causing some price corrections in precious metals [50]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories decreased, with LME at 135,700 tons (down 0.13%) and SHFE at 109,400 tons (down 4.89%) [29][34]. - Aluminum inventories increased slightly, with LME at 552,400 tons (up 0.57%) and SHFE at 114,900 tons (up 1.38%) [35].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.97%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from October, and the demand index is at 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.89%, down 0.02 percentage points from October, and the consumption index is at 49.69%, down 0.03 percentage points[7] Group 2: Industrial Production and Investment - Industrial production is experiencing a seasonal decline, with major industry operating rates decreasing month-on-month[17] - The operating rate for asphalt plants is at 29.00%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 33.42%, down 3.73 percentage points[31] - The construction work volume has shown a seasonal decline since November, indicating a need for further recovery in infrastructure investment[7] Group 3: Consumer Trends - Passenger car sales averaged 46,056 units per day in the week of November 9, down 10,644 units year-on-year, with retail sales for the first nine days of November at 415,000 units, a 19.0% decrease year-on-year[25] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 18.06 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.77 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg[42] Group 4: Export and Trade - The SCFI index for container shipping is at 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points, while the CCFI index is at 1094.03 points, up 35.86 points[41] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of November is at 6.40%, a significant recovery from the previous month[36] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Financing - The ELI index is at -0.58%, down 0.04 percentage points, indicating a continued decline in actual loan rates[12] - The net monetary injection for the week is 626.2 billion yuan, with the central bank conducting 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repos[48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, specifically recommending companies like BaiLi Tianheng [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown significant performance, with the A-share pharmaceutical index increasing by 3.3% this week and 22.1% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.4% and 4.5% respectively [4][9]. - BaiLi Tianheng has developed a comprehensive pipeline of innovative drugs targeting major cancer types, with 17 clinical candidates, including 6 in trials in the United States [20]. - The report highlights the approval of the first generic version of Enzalutamide by Kelun Pharmaceutical and the initiation of Phase III trials for a KRAS G12D inhibitor by Jinfang Pharmaceutical [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with significant gains in various sub-sectors, including pharmaceutical commerce (+5.7%) and chemical pharmaceuticals (+4.5%) [4][9]. - Notable stock performances include JinDike (+62%), Renmin Tongtai (+61%), and Chengda Pharmaceutical (+58%) [4][9]. Company Focus: BaiLi Tianheng - BaiLi Tianheng's pipeline includes innovative drug platforms such as HIRE-ADC, GNC, and HIRE-ARC, with a focus on EGFR×HER3 ADC as a cornerstone treatment [20]. - The company has initiated three global pivotal Phase III trials and ten critical Phase III trials in China for its lead candidate, iza-bren [20]. Recommendations - The report suggests a ranking of preferred sub-industries: innovative drugs > research services > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies [4][9]. - Specific companies to watch include BaiLi Tianheng, BeiGene, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and others in various therapeutic areas such as PD1/VEGF dual antibodies and GLP1 [4][10][11][12][13][14][15].

Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, with a projected impact of -1.5% on Q4 2025 GDP and +2.2% on Q1 2026 GDP due to the shutdown effects[2] - The CBO estimates that a six-week shutdown will reduce real GDP by $28 billion in 2025 dollars[41] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 70% to 43% following hawkish comments from Fed officials[2] - Key economic data, particularly the November non-farm payrolls, will be crucial for the December FOMC meeting, as October's data may be incomplete[2][4] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets initially rose but later retraced gains due to changing rate cut expectations, with the S&P 500 up 0.08% and the Nasdaq down 0.45% for the week[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5.16 basis points to 4.148%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4.42 basis points to 3.606%[3] Inflation and Employment Data - The ADP reported a significant decline in private sector jobs, with an average weekly loss of 11,250 jobs as of October 25[3] - The NFIB small business optimism index for October was recorded at 98.2, slightly below expectations[3] Future Monetary Policy - The new Fed chair appointed by Trump may influence a prolonged period of loose monetary policy, potentially leading to rate cuts exceeding market expectations[4] - Risks include potential inflation spikes if the Fed cuts rates too aggressively or maintains high rates for too long, which could trigger liquidity crises[4]