图 1: 动力煤指数价格（元/吨） . 上证指数本周（12 月 16 日至 12 月 20 日）报收 3368.07 点，较上周下跌 23.81 点， 跌幅 0.70%。成交金额为 2.96 万亿元，较上周减少 0.83 万亿元，跌幅 21.96%。煤炭板 块本周指数报收 2897.37 点，较上周下跌 93.74 点，跌幅 3.13%。成交金额为 590.91 亿 元，较上周减少 288.84 亿元，跌幅 32.83%。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|-----------------------|------------------------------|-------|-------------|-------|-----------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3 000 | | | | 1 800 | | | | 2 500 | | | | 1 600 | | | | 2 000 | | | | 1 400 | | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating on the food and beverage sector, suggesting a positive outlook for 2025 [1] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from a **dual-cycle resonance** of industrial and macroeconomic cycles, with a bottoming-out trend across sub-sectors and some already showing signs of recovery [1][2] - The liquor sector is anticipated to bottom out between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, with more positive performance expected in Q2 2025 [1] - Snacks and high-growth beverage segments are likely to continue their strong performance, with some sub-sectors leading the recovery [1][2] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to bottom out in H2 2024 and stabilize in H1 2025, with demand likely to recover during the Spring Festival in 2025 [22][128] - High-end liquor demand is expected to recover moderately, while mid-to-high-end liquor (100-300 RMB) will remain resilient and continue to drive revenue growth for liquor companies [22][128] - Inventory and pricing pressures are expected to ease as demand recovers, with some companies like **Shanxi Fenjiu** and **Yingjia Gongjiu** showing better inventory management and revenue stability [110][158] Mass Market Products - The mass market products sector is experiencing a **gradient bottoming-out**, with some sub-sectors like snacks and seasonings leading the recovery [2][162] - **Snacks**: The snack sector remains highly competitive, with channel-driven companies growing faster. Cost reductions and scale growth have improved profitability for most companies [2] - **Seasonings**: The seasoning sector is expected to rebound as catering demand recovers and cost benefits continue. Leading companies like **Haitian Flavoring** have shown strong performance [2][196] - **Soft Drinks**: The soft drink sector is highly differentiated, with traditional beverage companies struggling to grow revenue. However, energy drink leader **Dongpeng Beverage** continues to outperform expectations [2][213] - **Dairy**: The dairy sector faces oversupply issues, but supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve in 2025 as upstream supply decreases and downstream demand recovers [2][187] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends companies with balanced product portfolios, high visibility in earnings growth, and early inventory risk clearance, such as **Shanxi Fenjiu**, **Yingjia Gongjiu**, and **Luzhou Laojiao** [23][158] - In the mass market products sector, the report highlights **Dongpeng Beverage**, **Anjoy Food**, and **Yili Group** as top picks. It also recommends companies in the catering supply chain and seasoning sectors, such as **Baoli Food** and **Tianwei Food** [23] - The snack sector is expected to remain a leading growth area in 2025, with recommendations for **Three Squirrels**, **Wanchen Group**, and **Yanjin Shop** [23] Key Data and Trends - The liquor sector's revenue growth is expected to stabilize in 2025, with high-end liquor demand recovering moderately and mid-to-high-end liquor remaining resilient [22][128] - The snack sector continues to grow rapidly, with channel-driven companies outperforming. Cost reductions and scale growth have improved profitability [2] - The seasoning sector is expected to benefit from recovering catering demand and continued cost benefits, with leading companies like **Haitian Flavoring** showing strong performance [2][196] - The dairy sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics in 2025, with upstream supply decreasing and downstream demand recovering [2][187]

有色金属行业跟踪周报 增持（维持） ◼ 回顾本周行情（12 月 16 日-12 月 20 日），有色板块本周下跌 3.09%，在全部一级 行业中涨幅中后。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中贵金属板块下跌 5.67%，工业金属板块下跌 3.47%，小金属板块下跌 2.40%，金属新材料板块上涨 2.32%，能源金属板块下跌 3.16%。工业金属方面，临近年底为工业金属传统淡季， 价格普遍承压，美联储鹰派降息大幅削减 25 年利率下行空间，工业金属价格全线 下跌，后续需进一步观察经济前景及需求的边际变化。贵金属方面，受鲍威尔鹰牌 演讲影响，本周美元指数大幅上行 0.8%，黄金价格大幅回调；周五公布的 PCE 数 据小幅缓和了市场的悲观情绪，但我们预计短期市场偏好仍旧处于较低水平，预计 短期黄金价格继续高位震荡，后续有望进一步走出震荡向上走势。 铜：美联储鹰派降息，海内外铜价承压运行。截至 12 月 20 日，伦铜报收 8,944 美元/ 吨，周环比下跌 1.24%；沪铜报收 73,820 元/吨，周环比下跌 1.30%。供给端，截至 12 月 20 日，本周进口铜矿 TC 均价持稳 10.5 美元/吨，根 ...

Consumption Weakness Analysis - The "wage-GDP" growth gap has declined, impacting consumption, with the gap influenced by the "service-industry" growth gap[90][94] - Wealth effects should not be underestimated, while excess savings should not be overestimated, as asset price declines affect consumption through income, related consumption, and cash flow paths[91][117] - Service consumption demand is under greater pressure compared to previous low inflation periods, with the service sector's GDP deflator experiencing its first-ever decline[92][147] - Youth consumption has slowed significantly, contributing to the overall drag on consumption growth, with youth households previously contributing 55% of consumption growth[93][157] Policy Recommendations to Boost Consumption - Direct consumption subsidies, such as "trade-in" programs and service consumption vouchers, are the most likely short-term policies to be implemented[162][168] - Specific income-boosting measures for targeted groups, including fertility subsidies for first marriages and births, and increasing unemployment insurance benefits[162][182] - Social security subsidies, such as raising basic pensions for urban and rural residents and increasing fiscal subsidies for resident medical insurance contributions[162][189][192] - Supply-side reforms for service consumption, focusing on increasing the quantity of basic livelihood services and improving the quality of enjoyment-type services[162][196][198] - Deepening reforms to address systemic constraints on consumption, including stabilizing the property and stock markets, transitioning from industrial to service-based economies, and shifting public expenditure from investment to consumption[162][210][211][212] Risks and Challenges - Accelerated implementation of reform policies may lead to unexpected effects, while insufficient stimulus and subsidy measures may result in short-term policy underperformance[5][246] - External demand fluctuations due to U.S. tariff increases could lead to changes in domestic policy responses[5][246]

买入（首次） ◼ 盈利能力保持稳定，研发持续高投入，现金流改善明显。公司 24Q1-3 毛利率 25.66%，同比+0.57pct，其中 24Q3 毛利率 25.28%，同比+0.07pct， 环比-0.51pct。公司 24Q1-3 期间费用 11.7 亿元，同比+30.7%，期间费用 率 19.9%，同比+1.5pct，其中 24Q3 期间费用 4.3 亿元，同环比 +29.8%/+11.4%，期间费用率 23.0%，同环比+1.9/+5.1pct，其中研发费 用率 13.2%，同比+2.4pct，持续加大研发投入力度。24Q3 经营性现金流 2.2 亿元，同比+338%，环比+1099%，现金流大幅改善。 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谢哲栋 执业证书：S0600523060001 xiezd@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 许钧赫 执业证书：S0600123070121 xujunhe@dwzq.com.cn 市场数据 | --- | --- | |----------------------- ...

◼ 锂一次电源领域的"小巨人"：公司自 2004 年涉足锂微型电源领域， 是一家集研究、开发、制造与销售于一体的国家级高新技术企业。公司 主动加强市场开拓、提升全球化战略水平，2023 年公司实现营业收入 3.82 亿元，同增 14%；归母净利润 0.45 亿元，同增 14%。 证券研究报告·北交所公司深度报告·电池 力佳科技（835237） 锂锰扣式电池"小巨人"，下游需求旺盛扩 产稳健发展 2024 年 12 月 20 日 ◼ 锂一次电池行业市场前景广阔，全球市场需求稳健增长。受益于后疫情 时代的持续需求放量，全球锂一次电池市场规模逐年提升，预计 2028 年 市场规模达 38.4 亿美元，2021-2028 年 CAGR 为 7%。新场景需求涌 现，下游市场持续放量：1）计算机需求回暖：2022-2023 年受全球经济 衰退周期影响，PC 出货量下滑，得益于支持 AI 和基于 Arm 的设备出 现等利好因素，预计 2024 年 PC 出货量恢复至 2.67 亿台，未来有望持 续增长；2）家用智能监控行业增长潜力大。全球监控摄像头市场快速 增长，预计 2024 年全球监控摄像头市场将达到 421 亿美元， ...

表7：公司募投项目进展迅速 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------| | 募投项目名称 | 募集资金额 | 扩产内容 | 达到预定可使用状态日期 | | 新一代高性能锂原电池产业 化项目 | 2.15 亿元 | 传统锂锰扣式电池产能 5 亿支、宽温型锂锰扣式电 池产能 2000 万支、锂锰软 包电池产能 3000 万支以及 锂锰柱式电池 1000 万支 | 2025 年 6 月 30 日 | | 研发中心项目 | 0.2 亿元 | | 2025 年 6 月 30 日 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 东吴证券研究所 20 / 24 北交所公司深度报告 4. 盈利预测与投资 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-12-20 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20241219：2025 美联储还有几次降息？ 核心观点：12 月 FOMC 会议表态鹰派，市场交易强美元。FOMC 如期降 息 25bps，9 月以来已累计降息 100bps 至[4.25, 4.5]%。点阵图指引 2025- 26 年各 2 次降息，SEP 中美联储将 2025 年核心 PCE 预期从 2.2%上调至 2.5%，美联储开始为特朗普移民、关税、减税政策给通胀带来的上行风险 做评估。我们预期紧缩预期短期到达极致，2025 年美联储货政或先松后 紧，3、6 月各 25bps 降息，警惕 2025H2 不降息风险。当前 4.5%的 10 年 美债利率、2600 以下为黄金具有较高的配置性价比。 FOMC 声明：如 期降息 25bps，释放暂缓降息信号。12 月 FOMC 会议如期降息 25bps 至 [4.25, 4.5]%，声明与相比 11 月仅将未来增量降息考虑的表述增加"幅度 与节奏（extent and timing）"。Powe ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 五粮液（000858） 重视量价统筹，深化机制改革 2024 年 12 月 19 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 73969 | 83272 | 88780 | 94880 | 104591 | | 同比（ % ） | 11.72 | 12.58 | 6.61 | 6.87 | 10.23 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 26690 | 30211 | 32231 | 34456 | 38574 | | 同比（ % ） | 14.17 | 13.19 | 6.69 | 6.90 | 11.95 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 6.88 | 7.78 | 8.30 | 8.88 | 9.94 | | ...