Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in oil service equipment and engineering machinery driven by domestic demand and overseas expansion [1]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment sector is expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand, with a notable increase in excavator sales projected for October 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.77% [1]. - The oil service equipment segment is poised for growth due to Saudi Aramco's increased natural gas production plans and the rising demand for domestic equipment in international markets [2]. - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to experience a surge in November 2025, driven by key catalysts such as Tesla's third-generation release and IPO applications from industry players [3]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (up 2.44% year-on-year) and exports at 9,628 units (up 12.9% year-on-year) [1]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the domestic market, particularly in small excavators driven by water conservancy projects and labor substitution [1]. - The overseas market is expected to see significant growth, particularly in regions like the US, Africa, and South America, with a strong outlook for the next 2-3 years [1]. Oil Service Equipment - Saudi Aramco's Q3 report indicated a net profit of $28 billion, with a focus on cost control and increased oil production to maintain cash flow [2]. - The company has raised its natural gas production target for 2030, which is expected to enhance the demand for oil service equipment [2]. - The report recommends companies like Jereh and Neway for their potential in the Middle Eastern market [2]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see a significant uptick in activity in November 2025, with several key industry events and product launches [3]. - The report identifies core companies in the humanoid robot supply chain, including Top Group and Zhejiang Rongtai, as potential investment opportunities [3]. - The focus is on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming technological advancements and market demand [3].

Group 1: Midterm Election Insights - The 2026 midterm elections are crucial for Trump, as they will determine the political landscape and his ability to implement policies during his final years in office[1] - Historical data shows that the president's party typically loses an average of 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate during midterm elections, with a 36.36% chance of maintaining control after a sweep[11][12] - The significance of the 2026 midterms is heightened for Trump, as a loss could amplify political resistance during his remaining term[17] Group 2: Trade Policy Outlook - Trump's trade policy is expected to remain volatile, with potential for renewed tariff conflicts as a political strategy[25] - The U.S. Supreme Court may rule against Trump's use of IEEPA for imposing tariffs, prompting him to seek alternative legal frameworks for tariff implementation[26][29] - Tariff revenues have significantly increased, reaching approximately $174 billion in the first nine months of 2025, nearly tripling from the previous year[37] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The new Federal Reserve chair, expected to take office in May 2026, is anticipated to implement more aggressive rate cuts, with a total of at least four cuts projected by the end of next year[49][51] - The Fed's actions are likely to exceed market expectations and economic needs, resulting in lower interest rates and deteriorating credit conditions[38] - Trump's push for lower rates is driven by the need to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal pressures, especially in light of the projected $3.4 trillion deficit from the "Big Beautiful Plan" over the next decade[39][41]

证券研究报告 高切低视角，哪些产业值得关注？ ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年11月9日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 目录 1、本周市场回顾 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 1. 本周市场回顾 注：本周交易日为11月3日-11月7日 （如无特殊说明）后文同 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 一：大盘表现 ✓ 上证指数走势 4 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This is a weekly data tracking report on secondary capital bonds from November 3, 2025, to November 7, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - Two secondary capital bonds were newly issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of 15 billion yuan. The issuance term is 10 years, the issuers are subsidiaries of central enterprises and local state - owned enterprises, the issuer ratings are AAA, and the issuer regions are Guangdong and Shandong provinces [1][6] Secondary Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds was approximately 186 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The top three bonds in terms of trading volume were 25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC) (16.084 billion yuan), 25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03B(BC) (10.937 billion yuan), and 25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (5.996 billion yuan). By issuer region, the top three in trading volume were Beijing (about 140.8 billion yuan), Shanghai (about 11.6 billion yuan), and Fujian (about 8.6 billion yuan) [2] - **Yield to Maturity**: As of November 7, for 5Y secondary capital bonds, the yield - to - maturity changes of ratings AAA-, AA+, and AA compared to the previous week were 4.16BP, 3.24BP, and 3.24BP respectively; for 7Y bonds, they were 1.30BP, - 0.08BP, and - 0.08BP respectively; for 10Y bonds, they were 0.64BP, 0.64BP, and 0.64BP respectively [2][11] Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Discount Bonds**: The top three discount bonds were 21 Jiutai Rural Commercial Secondary (-48.9752%), 22 Jiangshan Rural Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (-0.4149%), and 24 Longwan Rural Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (-0.3907%). The Zhongzheng implied ratings were mainly AA+, AA-, and A+, and the regional distribution was mostly in Tianjin, Guangdong, and Shanghai [3][14] - **Premium Bonds**: The top three premium bonds were 24 Qingdao Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.5969%), 23 Chouzhou Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.5512%), and 25 Jinshang Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.4984%). The Zhongzheng implied ratings were mainly AAA-, AA+, and AA, and the regional distribution was mostly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [3][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the primary market, 17 new green bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets from November 3, 2025, to November 7, 2025, with a total issuance scale of about 41.219 billion yuan, an increase of 31.983 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance terms are mostly 3 years, and the issuers have diverse natures, ratings, regions, and bond types [1] - In the secondary market, the weekly trading volume of green bonds from November 3, 2025, to November 7, 2025, totaled 71.3 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4 billion yuan from the previous week. Non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds had the highest trading volumes. Green bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume. The financial, public utilities, and transportation equipment industries had the highest trading volumes, and Beijing, Guangdong, and Hubei were the top three regions in terms of trading volume [2] - From November 3, 2025, to November 7, 2025, the overall deviation of the trading average price valuation of green bonds was not large. The discount trading amplitude was greater than the premium trading, and the discount trading ratio was less than the premium trading. The report lists the top three discount and premium individual bonds and their characteristics [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - In the week of November 3 - 7, 2025, 17 new green bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total scale of about 41.219 billion yuan, up 31.983 billion yuan from the previous week. Issuance terms are mostly 3 years, issuers include local state - owned enterprises, central enterprise subsidiaries, central state - owned enterprises, large private enterprises, etc., with most having AAA or AA+ ratings. Issuers are from various regions, and the bond types include medium - term notes, private corporate bonds, enterprise ABS, and ABN [1] Secondary Market Trading - Weekly trading volume from November 3 - 7, 2025, was 71.3 billion yuan, up 4.4 billion yuan from the previous week. By bond type, non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds had the highest trading volumes. By term, bonds under 3Y had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 84.63%. By industry, the financial, public utilities, and transportation equipment industries had the highest trading volumes. By region, Beijing, Guangdong, and Hubei had the highest trading volumes [2] Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - The overall deviation of the trading average price valuation of green bonds was not large. The discount trading amplitude was greater than the premium trading, and the discount trading ratio was less than the premium trading. For discount bonds, the top three discount rates were for 20 Changding Green Bond 02 (-1.0176%), 25 Puzhi G1 (-0.7639%), and 25 Guangxi Jintou PPN002 (Green) (-0.4849%). For premium bonds, the top three premium rates were for 20 Guangdong Bond 19 (0.3269%), 20 Fujian Bond 14 (0.3112%), and 25 Anyang Iron and Steel MTN004 (Science and Technology Innovation Bond) (0.2649%) [3]

Macro Strategy - The core view indicates that actual interest rates remain the key anchor for gold prices, with fluctuations in monetary policy impacting market sentiment and gold's value [1][6] - In October, gold prices experienced a "rise then fall" pattern, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic data, leading to a 5.27% increase in the Shanghai gold futures by the end of the month [1][6] - The outlook for November suggests that gold prices will be driven by geopolitical situations, trade negotiations, and macroeconomic policies, with expectations of continued high volatility [1][6] Fixed Income - The report on Qizhong Convertible Bonds anticipates a listing price between 126.64 and 140.59 CNY, with a subscription rate of 0.0028% [2][7] - The bond has a total issuance scale of 850 million CNY, with proceeds allocated for advanced packaging and testing projects [7][8] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage industry report highlights a 5.5% decline in total revenue and a 6.7% drop in net profit for the liquor sector in the first three quarters of 2025, with a more pronounced 18.3% revenue decline in Q3 [3][10] - The report notes that the recovery of consumption scenarios is slow, particularly in business and personal dining contexts, leading to sustained pressure on demand for high-end and mid-range liquor [3][10] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies that are likely to see early signs of recovery and have strong growth potential, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also considering companies with solid governance and dividend yields [4][11] Company Recommendations - Tiangong International is highlighted for its potential growth in titanium alloy production, with projected revenues of 5.2 billion, 6.1 billion, and 7 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8%, 16%, and 14% respectively [5][11] - The company is positioned well in the consumer electronics sector and is expanding into new materials for robotics and nuclear fusion applications, which are expected to drive future growth [5][11]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Zhuomei Convertible Bond (123260.SZ) has a total issuance scale of 450 million yuan, with net proceeds used for construction and equipment procurement [4][10] - The current bond floor valuation is 83.70 yuan, with a yield to maturity (YTM) of 2.97%, indicating general bond floor protection [12][16] - The initial conversion price is set at 52.3 yuan per share, with the conversion parity at 107.11 yuan, reflecting a negative premium rate of -6.64% [13][14] Group 2 - The company, Xingyuan Zhuomei, is located in Ningbo, known as the hometown of die-casting molds, and specializes in designing and manufacturing large and medium-sized aluminum and magnesium alloy die-casting molds [18][32] - Since 2019, the company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.69% from 2019 to 2024, achieving a revenue of 409 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.01% [19][20] - The net profit attributable to the parent company has also fluctuated, with a CAGR of 10.31% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 80 million yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.31% year-on-year [19][24] Group 3 - The revenue of Xingyuan Zhuomei primarily comes from precision die-casting parts made of aluminum and magnesium alloys, with the proportion of project operation business revenue increasing from 56.09% in 2021 to 69.40% in 2024 [20][23] - The company has experienced a decline in net profit and gross profit margins, with the sales net profit margin ranging from 33.46% to 19.66% from 2019 to 2024 [24][29] - The company has a strong focus on research and development, continuously innovating and increasing R&D expenses, which has contributed to its competitive edge in the magnesium alloy precision die-casting sector [32][24]

- The Stability of Turnover Rate (STR) factor was constructed to evaluate the stability of daily turnover rates, aiming to improve stock selection efficiency by focusing on turnover rate stability rather than absolute turnover rate values [1][8][9] - STR factor construction involves calculating the stability of daily turnover rates using simple daily frequency data, referencing the methodology of the Uniformity of Turnover Rate Distribution (UTD) factor, which analyzes turnover rate distribution uniformity based on minute-level data [8] - STR factor performance metrics include annualized return of 40.88%, annualized volatility of 14.45%, IR of 2.83, monthly win rate of 76.79%, and maximum monthly drawdown of 9.96% during the period from January 2006 to October 2025 [9][12] - STR factor monthly performance in October 2025 showed a long portfolio return of 4.62%, a short portfolio return of -1.43%, and a long-short portfolio return of 6.06% [10] - Traditional turnover rate factor (Turn20), calculated as the average daily turnover rate over the past 20 trading days with market capitalization neutralization, demonstrated a monthly IC mean of -0.072, annualized ICIR of -2.10, annualized return of 33.41%, IR of 1.90, and monthly win rate of 71.58% from January 2006 to April 2021 [6] - Turnover rate factor logic indicates stocks with lower turnover rates in the past month are more likely to rise in the following month, while stocks with higher turnover rates are more likely to decline, though this logic has limitations due to significant intra-group return variance in high-turnover portfolios [7] - STR factor evaluation highlights its simplicity and effectiveness in stock selection, even after removing common style and industry biases, showcasing robust performance [1][8]

Export Data Overview - In October, China's exports (in USD) recorded a year-on-year decline of -1.1%, down from +8.3% in September, marking the first negative growth since March 2025[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant drop of -25.2%, slightly improving from September's -27.0%[3] - Exports to ASEAN maintained resilience with a growth rate of +11.0%, down from +15.6% in September[3] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU grew by only +0.9%, a sharp decline from +14.2% in September[3] - Exports to Africa and Latin America still showed positive growth but decreased significantly, from +56.4% and +15.2% in September to +10.5% and +2.1% respectively[3] Product Category Insights - Labor-intensive products like clothing, bags, and footwear experienced substantial declines, with growth rates of -16.0%, -25.7%, and -21.0% respectively[3] - High-tech manufacturing exports remained strong, with mobile phone exports dropping from -1.7% in September to -16.6% in October, while integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships recorded growth rates of +26.9%, +34.0%, and +68.4% respectively[3] Seasonal and Trade Relationship Factors - October's export data reflects seasonal trends, with a historical average month-on-month decline of -3.8% due to the National Day holiday[3] - The easing of US-EU trade tensions has contributed to the decline in exports to the EU, with a month-on-month decrease of -8.6% in October[3] - The phenomenon of "export rush" appears to be waning, impacting growth rates to ASEAN and other emerging markets[3] Future Outlook and Risks - There is a potential risk of further decline in export growth rates in Q4, with the possibility of turning negative due to higher base effects in November and December[3] - Ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations and a potential slowdown in global economic growth pose additional risks to export performance[3]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: UTR2.0 (Upgraded Turnover Rate 2.0) **Factor Construction Idea**: The UTR2.0 factor is an upgraded version of the original UTR factor. It combines the "volume stability factor" (STR) and the "small volume factor" (Turn20) using a new methodology. The key improvement involves transitioning from ordinal scale to ratio scale for factor values, which retains more information and adjusts the impact of the small volume factor based on the stability of the volume[6][7]. **Factor Construction Process**: 1. At the end of each month, calculate the small volume factor (Turn20) and the volume stability factor (STR) for all stocks[6]. 2. Sort all samples by STR in ascending order and assign scores (1, 2, ..., N), where N is the total number of samples. This is recorded as "Score 1"[6]. 3. For the top 50% of samples ranked by STR, sort them by Turn20 in descending order and assign scores (1, 2, ..., N/2). This is recorded as "Score 2". The final score for these stocks is "Score 1 + Score 2"[6]. 4. For the bottom 50% of samples ranked by STR, sort them by Turn20 in ascending order and assign scores (1, 2, ..., N/2). This is recorded as "Score 3". The final score for these stocks is "Score 1 + Score 3"[6]. 5. Transition from ordinal scale to ratio scale by introducing a coefficient for Turn20, which is a function of STR. The coefficient reflects the impact of Turn20 on returns: the more stable the volume, the stronger the positive impact; the less stable the volume, the stronger the negative impact. The formula for UTR2.0 is: $$ \mathrm{UTR2.0} = \mathrm{STR} + \text{softsign}(\mathrm{STR}) \cdot \mathrm{Turn20} $$ where $\text{softsign}(x) = \frac{x}{1 + |x|}$[7]. **Factor Evaluation**: The UTR2.0 factor improves upon the original UTR factor by achieving better performance in terms of volatility, information ratio (IR), and monthly win rate, although its returns are slightly lower[6][7]. --- Factor Backtesting Results - **UTR2.0 Factor**: - Annualized Return: 40.48% - Annualized Volatility: 14.98% - Information Ratio (IR): 2.70 - Monthly Win Rate: 75.53% - Maximum Drawdown: 11.03%[8][12] - **October 2025 Performance**: - Long Portfolio Return: 4.64% - Short Portfolio Return: -1.50% - Long-Short Portfolio Return: 6.14%[10]