Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The gas prices across various regions remain stable due to sufficient inventory in the US, progress in European storage, and slow recovery in domestic demand [1][10] - The report highlights the gradual implementation of price adjustments in urban gas companies, leading to improved profitability and valuation recovery [38] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy independence and the potential impact of US LNG import tariffs on companies with US gas sources [54][56] Price Tracking - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas prices are as follows: US HH -0.1%, European TTF +1.2%, East Asia JKM -0.6%, China LNG ex-factory -0.1%, and China LNG CIF -2.1% [10][14] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,117 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand increased by 2.7% to 1,013 billion cubic feet per day [16] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that US natural gas inventory is sufficient, with a week-on-week increase of 750 billion cubic feet to 35,080 billion cubic feet [16] - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to June 2025 was 2,408 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [19] - Domestic natural gas apparent consumption in China increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 2,832 billion cubic meters from January to August 2025 [25][34] Pricing Mechanism Progress - Nationwide price adjustments have been gradually implemented, with 65% of cities adjusting residential gas prices by an average of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [38] - The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery in urban gas companies [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [56] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [56] - Companies with gas production capabilities, like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings, are suggested for attention due to the increasing uncertainty in US gas imports [56]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Hong Kong Travel (00308.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading integrated platform for tourism investment and operation, backed by the central enterprise China Travel Group, focusing on both domestic and international expansion [1][9]. - The tourism sector is experiencing sustained high demand, supported by policies aimed at releasing consumer potential, with expectations for continued growth in domestic travel [3][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hong Kong Travel, established in July 1992 and listed in November of the same year, operates as a tourism asset investment and operation platform under China Travel Group, managing approximately 60 domestic and international scenic spots by the end of 2024 [13][33]. - The company has a diversified business model that includes tourism attractions, travel documentation, hotel operations, and cross-border passenger transport [17][33]. Core Highlights - The tourism industry is experiencing robust growth, with domestic travel numbers and spending showing significant increases, indicating strong consumer demand [38][41]. - The company has a nationwide layout of scenic spots, focusing on integrated operation and management, with a revenue breakdown showing significant contributions from various segments [45][54]. Financial Analysis - Revenue projections indicate a growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 5,559 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.19% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase significantly, from HKD 239.55 million in 2023 to HKD 597.20 million by 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth potential [1]. Investment Forecast and Recommendations - The report anticipates that the company will continue to expand its quality tourism assets, justifying a valuation premium and supporting the "Accumulate" rating [1][9]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are projected to be 32, 21, and 15 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's growth potential [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - TOP TOY, a subsidiary of Miniso, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the split expected to enhance the valuation of Miniso [4][10] - The rapid growth of the trendy toy industry has led to a doubling of TOP TOY's revenue in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 115%, and a projected revenue growth of 58.5% in the first half of 2025, reaching 1.36 billion yuan [4][10] - The Chinese trendy toy market is expected to grow from approximately 59 billion yuan in 2024 to about 213 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 21% from 2025 to 2030 [28] - TOP TOY is projected to be the largest trendy toy collection store in China by 2024, leveraging its advantages in product selection, supply chain, IP operation, and franchise resources [31] - The split listing of TOP TOY is anticipated to allow different types of investors to benefit and assist Miniso in achieving a revaluation [33] Summary by Sections Weekly Industry Insights - TOP TOY's listing application was submitted on September 26, 2025, and will operate independently post-split [4][10] - The company achieved profitability in 2023, with a projected profit growth of 40% in 2024, reaching 297 million yuan [4][10] Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 28, the Shenwan retail index decreased by 4.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% [34][35] - Year-to-date performance shows the Shenwan retail index up by 1.91% [34][35] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies in the industry, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings [37]

证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 9月第3周乘用车环比+12.9%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年9月29日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.9.22-2025.9.28 2 （ ◼ 本周复盘总结：九月第三周交强险50.8万辆，环比上周/上月周度+12.9%/+8.2% 。 ➢ 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SＷ摩托车及其他(+5.0%) > SW汽车零部件(+0.4%) >SW 乘用车(-0.9%) >SW商用载货车（-2.5%）>SW商用载客车(-3.0%) 。本周已覆盖标 的立讯精密、松原股份、旭升集团、常熟汽饰、恒帅股份涨幅前五。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发深度报告《AI智能车时代是【产品为王】》《Robotaxi正 重塑汽车出行市场》《2025年主流城市NOA试驾报告——9月上海篇》。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）特斯拉FSD的V14版本预计下周提前广泛发布，大约2周后发 布14.1版本，最后发布14.2版本；2）小鹏和阿里云宣布正式签署"后量子加 ...

Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment for the first eight months of this year is only 0.5%, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to promote recovery [10][11] - The expected GDP growth for the third quarter is between 4.7% and 4.9%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters. If the growth rate for the fourth quarter exceeds 4.5%, the annual target of around 5.0% can be achieved [10][11] - The report anticipates that the new policies will focus on four areas: early use of debt limits, introduction of new policy financial tools, potential interest rate cuts, and adjustments to consumption policies to stimulate demand [10][11] Fixed Income - The issuance of the Jin 25 convertible bond is set at a total scale of 2 billion yuan, with net proceeds allocated for the Zambia Lubanbi copper mine project and related operational and capital expenditures. The bond has a maturity of six years and a yield to maturity of 2.46% [20] Industry Analysis - The insurance industry showed strong growth in life insurance premiums in August, while non-auto property insurance faced short-term pressure. The valuation of insurance stocks remains low, with expected PEV ratios between 0.57 and 0.85 and PB ratios between 1.02 and 2.16 for 2025, indicating significant upside potential [7] - The report highlights that the demand for savings remains robust, and with ongoing regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies, liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, alleviating pressure on interest margins [7] Energy Storage - The report emphasizes the rise of independent energy storage in China, with significant demand growth expected in both domestic and international markets. The ongoing shortage of energy storage cells is projected to continue until the second half of 2026, with price increases anticipated [8] - Key companies recommended for investment in the energy storage sector include CATL, Sungrow, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, among others, due to their competitive advantages and profit growth potential [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The first 12-inch silicon carbide (SiC) substrate processing pilot line has officially commenced, opening up growth opportunities for the company [7] - The company has achieved a significant technological breakthrough in 12-inch SiC crystal growth, marking a transition from a follower to a leader in global SiC substrate technology [7] - SiC's high thermal conductivity and processing window are expected to enhance the cooling of CoWoS structures and reduce packaging dimensions, making it an ideal material for high-performance applications [7] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity for 6 and 8-inch substrates and has already developed the capability for 12-inch substrates [7] - The forecasted net profit for the company is projected to be 1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 58, 47, and 38 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17,983 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 4,558 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.85% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 3.48 yuan per share [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 31,550 million yuan in 2024, with a total liability of 13,616 million yuan [8] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 1,773 million yuan in 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The implementation of stable growth policies in the building materials sector is expected to strengthen anti-involution efforts, leading to potential growth opportunities [1][4] - The report highlights a rebound in industrial profits and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI), driven by anti-involution measures [4] - The report recommends several companies, including Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Qibin Group, as well as consumer building materials firms like Oppein Home and Arrow Bathroom, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The building materials sector experienced a decline of 2.11% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which gained 1.07% and 0.25% respectively [4] - The average price of high-standard cement nationwide is reported at 351.0 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5.3 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 35.0 CNY/ton [4][18] - The average cement inventory ratio is 65.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last week [25] 2. Cement Market - The report notes a slight decrease in cement demand due to weather conditions, with an average shipment rate of 46.5%, down 1.9 percentage points from last week [25] - The report anticipates that cement companies will continue to push for price increases as the fourth quarter approaches, with expectations for a rebound in prices [4][11] - Recommendations include leading companies such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and improved profitability [11] 3. Glass Market - The average price of float glass is reported at 1224.7 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 16.8 CNY/ton and a year-on-year increase of 47.6% [4] - The report suggests that the glass industry is currently facing a supply-demand stalemate, but mid-term supply-side adjustments are expected to improve pricing dynamics [13] - Flagship companies like Qibin Group are recommended due to their competitive advantages in resource access and potential profit growth from diversified business lines [13] 4. Fiberglass Market - The report indicates that the profitability of fiberglass is expected to improve in the medium term, with a focus on high-end products [12] - The report highlights that the industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which is likely to stabilize prices [12][13] - Companies such as China Jushi are recommended for their strong market position and growth potential in emerging applications [12][13] 5. Consumer Building Materials - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies on consumer demand for building materials, with expectations for continued growth in the sector [14] - Companies like Oppein Home and Arrow Bathroom are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for recovery in consumer spending [14] - The report suggests that the competitive landscape is improving, with many companies showing signs of profit recovery and growth strategies [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The central bank's supportive attitude towards liquidity will be maintained, and the loose state will effectively support the bond yield to fluctuate at the bottom of the box. The report maintains the judgment that the top of the 10-year Treasury bond yield this year is 1.85% [1][17] - The long - end of US bonds fluctuates between 4 - 4.5%, the short - end is easy to decline but difficult to rise, and the report continues to be bullish on gold [2] - The US economy is still in an expansion state, but actual demand may be insufficient, and economic growth is slowing down. The labor market has not fundamentally improved, and the Fed's理事鲍曼 calls for a firm interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [21][24][27] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One - week Views - **Domestic Bond Market**: This week (2025.9.22 - 2025.9.26), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.4bp from 1.795% last Friday to 1.799%. The central bank's 14 - day reverse repurchase operation was discontinuous, but the open - market operation maintained a net investment, and the MLF was over - renewed by 300 billion yuan, indicating support for liquidity [1][12][17] - **Overseas Market**: The Fed's interest rate cut "boot landed" last week, the yield curve steepened rapidly. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate reached 3.8%, but the manufacturing and service PMI in September decreased. The number of initial jobless claims continued to decline, but the labor market has not fundamentally improved. Fed理事鲍曼 called for an interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [2][21][24] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - The open - market operations from 2025/09/22 - 2025/09/26 are detailed, with a total net investment of 940.6 billion yuan. The money - market interest rate and the issuance volume of interest - rate bonds in two weeks are also analyzed [32] 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rates, balance - treasure yields, vegetable price indices, commodity price indices, and the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are presented. The performance of various overseas indices and the yield changes of US bonds are also shown [59][60][72] 3. One - week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 78 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 196.051 billion yuan, a net financing of 122.461 billion yuan. The main investment directions are comprehensive, strategic development, and urban - rural infrastructure construction. 12 provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and 2 provinces issued special refinancing special bonds for replacing existing hidden debts [79][84][85] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 53.44 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 47.4454 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.89%. The top three provinces with active trading are Guangdong, Shandong, and Hunan, and the top three active trading maturities are 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [94] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and regions from 2025/9/29 to 2025/10/3 are presented [98] 4. One - week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 418 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 435.522 billion yuan, a total repayment of 358.923 billion yuan, and a net financing of 76.599 billion yuan, an increase of 9.68 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 23.029 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 99.627 billion yuan [99][100] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week are provided, with different changes in the interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds [111] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of each type of credit bond this week is detailed, with a total trading volume of 633.982 billion yuan [114] 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of various bonds such as 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y national development bonds, and the yields of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all showed certain changes this week [116][118][119][120] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all widened this week [124][126][131] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends, with the grade spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowing [136][140][143] 4.7 Trading Activity - No specific content provided 4.8 Subject Rating Changes - No specific content provided

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 寿险保费 8 月大幅增长；境外机构开展债券 回购业务进一步放开 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 09 月 28 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 2024/9/30 2025/1/28 2025/5/28 2025/9/25 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《保险行业 8 月保费：寿险单月保费 强势增长，财险非车业务短期承压》 2025-09-26 《基本面向好趋势确定性高，保险/券 商估值修复均可期》 2025-09-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 年 09 月 22 日-2025 年 09 月 26 日）非银金融各子板块均跑输沪深 300 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The convertible bond market has experienced several stages in the past 1 - 2 months, with structured sector and individual bond opportunities increasing. The new energy sector (wind, solar, and storage) is a key area, with a preference for storage over wind and solar. The photovoltaic industry chain prices are expected to bottom - out and rebound, and upstream may benefit first [2][39][40] - Currently, it is too early to switch between high - and low - priced bonds in the new energy direction. The risk - return ratio is still acceptable, and it is recommended to seize the right - hand side opportunities under linear extrapolation of expectations [40] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Pufa Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, etc. [2][40] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1 Equity Market - The equity market rose overall from September 22 - 26, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.06%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.07%. However, most industries declined, with 7 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rising, and 3 industries rising more than 2%. The power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics industries led the gains [7][9][13] - The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 1997.73 billion yuan to 22950.61 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 8.01% [9] 1.2 Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market rose 0.94% from September 22 - 26, 2025. 21 out of 29 Shenwan primary industries rose, with 2 industries rising more than 2%. The electronics, national defense and military industry, and power equipment industries led the gains [16] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 845.82 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.53 billion yuan, but a week - on - week decrease of 6.68%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 97.89 billion yuan, with the first - ranked bond reaching 134.73 billion yuan [16] - About 63.62% of individual convertible bonds rose, with about 28.40% rising in the 0 - 1% range and 20.66% rising more than 2% [16] - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to rise, with different trends in different price and parity intervals. 25 industries' conversion premium rates widened, and 6 industries' conversion parities increased [22][27][31] 1.3 Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - Overall, the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment this week. However, the trading sentiment varied by trading day. On Monday and Wednesday, the stock market had better trading sentiment, while on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment [34][35] 2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The convertible bond market has experienced several stages, and structured opportunities are more important. The new energy sector is a key area, with balanced and relatively low - priced targets in the power equipment sector having high win - rates and odds [2][37][39] - It is too early to switch between high - and low - priced bonds in the new energy direction. It is recommended to focus on the storage sector, followed by the wind and solar sectors. Pay attention to companies like Tong 22 and Jingneng in the photovoltaic industry [40] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Pufa Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Qixiang Convertible Bond 2, Jiangong Convertible Bond, and Jiayue Convertible Bond [40]