1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the repeated Sino - US economic and trade game, the bond market maintained a relatively strong oscillation this week (2025.10.13 - 2025.10.17), but short - term participation should be cautious. The interest rate will oscillate within a box range before the "anti - involution" narrative is confirmed or refuted by actual data, with limited downward breakthrough momentum. It is recommended to appropriately shorten the duration [1][14]. - The long - and short - term yields of US Treasury bonds continued the previous downward trend from October 13th to 17th, 2025, indicating an increase in the marginal expectation of a US economic recession and a relative weakening of the stagflation expectation. The subsequent market's structured characteristics are expected to be further prominent. In the short term, it is beneficial to the technology - related direction and exerts certain pressure on the precious metals sector [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Bond Market Participation Space under Sino - US Economic and Trade Game - Yield change: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.2bp from 1.743% on October 11th to 1.745% this week [1]. - Daily review: On Monday (10.13), due to Trump's tariff relaxation signal and strong September import and export data, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 1.8bp. On Tuesday (10.14), the stock market's performance and counter - measures against US companies led to a 0.85bp decline. On Wednesday (10.15), inflation and financial data did not exceed expectations, and the yield rose 0.6bp. On Thursday (10.16),经贸 news caused a 0.55bp decline. On Friday (10.17), the bad debt problem of US regional banks and other factors led to a 0.8bp decline [11]. - Weekly thinking: The bond market maintained a relatively strong oscillation. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term. Since the "anti - involution" policy in July 2025, the yield curve has been "bear - steep". It is recommended to transfer 30Y positions to 10Y and appropriately shorten the duration [14]. 3.1.2 Impact of US Data on US Treasury Bond Yields - Yield trend: The long - and short - term yields of US Treasury bonds continued to decline, with the long - term yield falling below 4%, indicating an increase in the expectation of a US economic recession and a weakening of the stagflation expectation [17]. - Impact on sectors: It is beneficial to AI - related themes in the short term and exerts pressure on the precious metals sector [17]. - Considerations based on incremental data: - Crude oil inventory: The US crude oil inventory increased significantly in the week of October 10th, 2025, and the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil dropped to new lows since early May 2025, mainly due to factors such as increased inventory and weakened demand [17][19]. - Manufacturing index: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in October 2025 was far lower than expected, indicating an overall contraction of manufacturing activities, mainly affected by factors such as the end of the short - term government shutdown and employment deterioration [23]. - Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts: The Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts in the week of October 17th, 2025, was generally loose but with differences in amplitude and rhythm. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in October 2025 is expected to rise to 99.0%, and the possibility of another cut in December has also increased [27]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - market operations: From October 13th to 17th, 2025, the net investment in open - market operations was - 3479 billion yuan [31]. - Interest rate changes: The money - market interest rates showed certain fluctuations, and the yields of Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds also changed [32][42]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity prices: The official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures declined comprehensively. The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil dropped, and the VIX panic index led the rise while the WTI crude oil index led the fall [56][68]. - Real - estate market: The total transaction area of commercial housing increased comprehensively [50]. - Bond market: The yields of US Treasury bonds declined overall, and the term spreads of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds decreased [77][80]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Overall issuance: A total of 21 local bonds were issued this week, with a total issuance amount of 323.01 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 520.81 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 197.81 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive and social undertakings [85]. - Provincial issuance: Five provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Hubei, Shenzhen, Beijing, Jilin, and Dalian ranking in the top five in terms of issuance amount [87]. - Special refinancing bonds: Three provinces and cities issued local special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 97.15 billion yuan [92]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - Trading volume: The trading volume of local bonds this week was 3011.27 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.56%. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were the top three provinces in terms of trading activity [101]. - Yield: The yields of local bonds declined overall [106]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for This Month The issuance plans of local bonds in multiple provinces and cities are provided, but specific data is not elaborated in detail [109]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Overall issuance: A total of 432 credit bonds were issued this week, with a total issuance amount of 4090.61 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 2293.67 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 1796.63 billion yuan, an increase of 2890.25 billion yuan compared with last week [110]. - Bond type: The net financing amounts of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes were 370.18 billion yuan, 870.36 billion yuan, - 44.51 billion yuan, 572.48 billion yuan, and 28.12 billion yuan respectively [115]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes decreased, while that of corporate bonds increased [122]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total transaction amount of credit bonds was 6629.26 billion yuan, with different transaction amounts for different bond types and credit ratings [123]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yields of various types of credit bonds declined overall [124][126][127][130]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes narrowed overall, while those of corporate bonds showed a differentiated trend, and those of urban investment bonds narrowed overall [132][136][139]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes widened overall, while those of corporate bonds narrowed overall [141][145].

Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The long - and short - end of US Treasury yields continued to decline last week, and the long - end briefly fell below 4%, suggesting an increased market bet on US economic recession. The gold price correction on Friday raised concerns about changing market bets. Global liquidity is shifting more firmly towards easing, which will fuel the further bubble of AI themes, strengthen market structuring, benefit the technology sector in the short - term, and be negative for precious metals [1][43][44]. - China's ChiNext and STAR Market weakened with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and convertible bonds followed suit. Low - price, large - cap, and high - rating convertible bonds were relatively resilient. The high - low rotation in the convertible bond market preceded that in the equity market, possibly due to factors such as the amplification effect of convertible bond valuation, large - scale redemptions of high - standard bonds, and the low risk appetite of convertible bond investors [1][44]. - Considering both external and domestic factors, the main logic of technology computing power and electricity remains valid. With the approaching earnings season, it is recommended to focus on sectors with relatively certain earnings improvement, such as new energy and some chemical fields. Convertible bonds like Pingmei, Yuguang, Xingfa, Aidi, Saite, and Shouhua are recommended for their defensive properties [1]. - The top ten convertible bonds with the highest probability of downward revision next week are Ziyin, Lanfan, Dongshi, Baolai, Longda, Jiangong, Wanqing, Jidong, Shanlu, and Aojia Convertible Bonds [1][44]. - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Sheng24, Changji, Pufa, Chunqiu, Ying19, Xiwang, Liqun, Wentai, Liuyao, and Jieneng Convertible Bonds [1][44]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market Declined Overall - From October 13th to 17th, the equity market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.47% to 3839.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 4.99% to 12688.94 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 5.71% to 2935.37 points, and the CSI 300 Index declined 2.22% to 4514.23 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 2039.56 billion yuan to 21766.30 billion yuan, a week - on - week decline of 8.57% [6][10]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries rose, with 2 industries rising more than 2%. Banking, coal, food and beverage, and transportation led the gains, rising 4.89%, 4.17%, 0.86%, and 0.37% respectively. Electronics, media, automobiles, communications, and machinery led the losses, with declines of 7.14%, 6.27%, 5.99%, 5.92%, and 5.84% respectively [13]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market Declined Overall - From October 13th to 17th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.35% to 474.22 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, only the banking industry rose 0.93%. Electronics, communications, national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and computers led the losses, falling 6.45%, 5.71%, 5.25%, 5.13%, and 4.59% respectively [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 709.50 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 54.72 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of - 7.16%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Yuguang, Guanzhong, Huicheng, Wentai, Jingxing, Wujin, Saili, Yiwei, Luwei, and Outong Convertible Bonds [16]. - Approximately 10.66% of convertible bond issues rose, about 6.64% had a gain between 0 - 1%, and 1.66% had a gain of over 2% [16]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From October 13th to 17th, the weekly weighted average and median of convertible bond and underlying stock returns were negative, and the underlying stocks had a larger decline. In terms of trading volume, the convertible bond market's trading volume increased 16.05% week - on - week, at the 66.60% quantile since 2022, while the underlying stock market's trading volume increased 11.91% week - on - week, at the 94.70% quantile since 2022. About 10.85% of convertible bonds and 17.46% of underlying stocks rose, and about 66.84% of convertible bonds had a higher return than their underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market was better [40]. - On specific trading days, the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment on October 13th, 16th, and 17th, while the underlying stock market had better trading sentiment on October 14th and 15th [41]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - The main logic of technology computing power and electricity remains valid, and relevant catalysts have both short - term intermittency and long - term sustainability. Near the earnings season, it is recommended to focus on sectors with relatively certain earnings improvement, such as new energy and some chemical fields. Convertible bonds like Pingmei, Yuguang, Xingfa, Aidi, Saite, and Shouhua are recommended [1][44]. - The top ten convertible bonds with the highest probability of downward revision next week are Ziyin, Lanfan, Dongshi, Baolai, Longda, Jiangong, Wanqing, Jidong, Shanlu, and Aojia Convertible Bonds [1][44][45]. - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Sheng24, Changji, Pufa, Chunqiu, Ying19, Xiwang, Liqun, Wentai, Liuyao, and Jieneng Convertible Bonds [1][44][46].

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 2.19 trillion CNY, a decrease of 156.6 billion CNY compared to the previous five trading days[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, while the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.22%[12] Market Style Performance - The large-cap value index increased by 2.08%, showing a strong performance relative to other styles[12] - The small-cap growth index decreased by 5.82%, indicating a weaker performance in the growth sector[12] Participant Performance - The "National Team Index" rose by 0.06%, contrasting with declines in other indices such as the QFII Heavyweight Index, which fell by 4.02%[19] - The private equity heavy index decreased by 4.01%, while the social security heavy index fell by 1.89%[19] Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance increased to approximately 2.46 trillion CNY, indicating a moderate growth in market sentiment[26] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 44, while 13 stocks hit the limit down this week[21] Sector Performance - The report highlights strong sectors, with specific indices showing significant weekly gains, although exact percentages are not detailed in the provided content[35] - Weak sectors also experienced declines, reflecting the overall market trend[29]

Core Insights - The report argues that the recent market uptrend since June is not primarily driven by "residential deposit migration," but rather by an improvement in risk appetite and a shift in earnings expectations [1] - It highlights several misconceptions regarding the migration of residential deposits and emphasizes that the changes in non-bank deposits are more of a consequence than a cause of market movements [1] Misconceptions about Residential Deposit Migration - The decline in wealth management yields due to lower risk-free rates has not significantly prompted residents to shift towards other asset types; instead, they have increased their allocation to medium-term wealth management products [2] - Historical data shows that high growth in non-bank deposits typically corresponds with a booming equity market, while recent trends indicate that new residential deposits have not fluctuated significantly [2] - The report notes that periods of significant residential market entry often coincide with overheated market sentiment, suggesting that such behavior may lead to market tops rather than sustained growth [2] Market Drivers - The primary drivers of the market are identified as changes in narrative, improved risk appetite, and enhanced earnings expectations, with liquidity playing a secondary role [3] - The report utilizes a DDM model to illustrate that since September of the previous year, market gains have been predominantly attributed to improved risk appetite, followed by earnings expectations, while the impact of reduced risk-free rates has been minimal [3] Market Trading Logic - The report indicates a shift in market trading logic from valuation-driven to a "Davis Double Play" approach, where performance is increasingly guided by earnings rather than just valuations [3] - It notes that the strong performance of the overseas computing sector has significantly influenced the domestic market, particularly in the technology and innovation sectors [3] Earnings Recovery Indicators - Two leading indicators suggest that corporate earnings may have bottomed out: credit expansion typically precedes earnings recovery by about nine months, with a turning point expected in November [4] - Additionally, the growth rate difference between corporate and residential deposits serves as an economic activity indicator, with a turning point anticipated around August [4] Current Trading Risks - The report identifies three key trading risks: a decline in financing, high valuations, and geopolitical risks, which have contributed to increased market volatility since September [5] - It emphasizes the need for risk control in the current environment, despite the presence of potential opportunities in various sectors [5] Sector Focus - The report suggests focusing on hard technology sectors, particularly those related to overseas computing and chip manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from increased demand and narrative-driven growth [5] - Specific areas of interest include innovative pharmaceuticals entering commercial phases, AI applications in media and internet sectors, and consumer electronics transitioning into new cycles [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longking Environmental (龙净环保) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.858 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 780 million yuan, up 20.53% year-on-year [8] - The green electricity and energy storage segments have made significant contributions to the company's performance, with the green electricity business contributing nearly 170 million yuan in net profit [8] - The company has a robust order backlog of 19.7 billion yuan, with new contracts signed for environmental equipment engineering increasing by 1.1% year-on-year [8] - The company is strategically expanding into the mining equipment sector and has made investments in special robots for energy applications [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 10.973 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 12.097 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 20.74% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 508.97 million yuan in 2023A to 1.23175 billion yuan in 2025E, indicating a growth of 48.33% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.40 yuan in 2023A to 0.97 yuan in 2025E [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 37.70 in 2023A to 15.58 in 2025E [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The report presents a weekly data tracking of secondary capital bonds from October 13, 2025, to October 17, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - One new secondary capital bond was issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets this week, with an issuance scale of 4.5 billion yuan, a maturity of 10 years. The issuer is a local state - owned enterprise in Jiangsu Province with a subject rating of AAAspc [1][6]. Secondary Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The total weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds was approximately 166.8 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3 billion yuan compared to last week. The top three bonds in terms of trading volume were 25 ICBC Secondary Capital Bond 02BC (6.075 billion yuan), 25 BOC Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (5.131 billion yuan), and 25 CCB Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (5.024 billion yuan) [2]. - **Regional Trading Volume**: The top three regions in terms of trading volume were Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, with trading volumes of approximately 129 billion yuan, 12.3 billion yuan, and 6.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Yield to Maturity**: As of October 17, the yield - to - maturity changes of 5Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA compared to last week were - 7.98BP, - 7.12BP, and - 7.12BP respectively; for 7Y bonds, the changes were - 9.74BP for all three ratings; for 10Y bonds, the changes were - 9.29BP, - 8.58BP, and - 8.58BP respectively [2][11]. Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Overall Situation**: The overall valuation deviation of the weekly average trading price of secondary capital bonds was not significant this week. The proportion of discount trading was greater than that of premium trading, and the discount range was larger than the premium range [3]. - **Discount Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest discount rates were 20 Fuxin Bank Secondary 01 (- 15.2060%), 17 Yanbian Rural Commercial Secondary 02 (- 2.5373%), and 22 Chengdu Rural Commercial Secondary 01 (- 0.7800%). The majority of ChinaBond implied ratings were AAA -, AA +, and A +, and the bonds were mainly distributed in Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai [3][13]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest premium rates were 22 Chouzhou Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.2822%), 21 Jinshang Bank Secondary 01 (0.2143%), and 21 Huishang Bank Secondary 01 (0.1652%). The majority of ChinaBond implied ratings were AAA -, AA, and AA +, and the bonds were mainly distributed in Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai [3][14].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251018 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251013-20251017） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251013-20251017）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 18 只，合计发行规模约 122.82 亿元，较上周减少 29.68 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年；发行人性质为地方国有企业、央企子公司、大型民企、其他 企业；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为广东省、北京市、贵 州省、江苏省、河南省、山东省、上海市、浙江省；发行债券种类为中 期票据、私募公司债、企业 ABS、交易商协会 ABN、超短期融资券。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251013-20251017）绿色债券周成交额合计 613 亿元，较上周增 加 195 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 306 亿元、226 亿元和 63 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 79.45%，市场热度持续；分 发行主体行业来看，成交量前三的行业为金融 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in non-recurring net profit by 29% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising metal prices and improved resource recovery capacity [7] - The company's operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 646 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.18% [7] - The report emphasizes the value of recycled resources amid rising metal prices, with the company expanding its resource recovery operations to include a wider range of metals [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 10.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.58% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is estimated at 504.64 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 27.13% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 0.33 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 23.09 [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 803.26 million, 909.25 million, and 1.05134 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.51, 12.82, and 11.08 [1][7] - The report anticipates a steady increase in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 367 million in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 67.29% [7] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 8.02 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 12.22 billion [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.28 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.57% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 23.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.38%, driven by the expansion of supply chain and other businesses [7] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% from 2025 to 2027, ensuring shareholder returns [7] - The company is advancing its green methanol project, aiming to establish a production capacity of 200,000 tons per year, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 8.72 billion yuan, 9.22 billion yuan, and 9.76 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 19.3, 18.2, and 17.2 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 25.54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 34.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is projected at 844.45 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.87% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is estimated at 0.65 yuan per share [1] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 19.31 billion yuan by 2024A, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.43% [6][8] - The operating cash flow for 2024A is projected at 1.75 billion yuan [8]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - From January 2020 to September 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 39 monetary policy easing operations[19] - During the 12 "bear steep" phases, the proportion of A-shares outperforming the 10-year government bond yield reached 53.8%[28] - In the 5 "bear flat" phases, this proportion increased to 66.2%[28] Group 2: Stock Performance by Style - Defensive stocks benefited significantly from monetary easing, with an average outperformance ratio of 50.4%[32] - Growth stocks, on the other hand, showed a more ambiguous benefit, with an average outperformance ratio of 48.3%[32] - The average outperformance ratios for defensive, semi-defensive, semi-cyclical, and cyclical stocks were 50.4%, 49.6%, 48.2%, and 47.6%, respectively, indicating a decreasing trend[32] Group 3: Economic Conditions and Expectations - If monetary easing coincides with improved expectations for corporate profits and economic recovery, equity markets may perform better despite a bear bond market[27] - The performance of growth stocks in response to monetary easing is conditional, while defensive stocks, which are less sensitive to economic cycles, show clearer benefits[27] - If the equity market lacks clear expectations for fundamental improvements, defensive stocks may still underperform relative to bonds during monetary easing periods[27]