Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longking Environmental (龙净环保) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.858 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 780 million yuan, up 20.53% year-on-year [8] - The green electricity and energy storage segments have made significant contributions to the company's performance, with the green electricity business contributing nearly 170 million yuan in net profit [8] - The company has a robust order backlog of 19.7 billion yuan, with new contracts signed for environmental equipment engineering increasing by 1.1% year-on-year [8] - The company is strategically expanding into the mining equipment sector and has made investments in special robots for energy applications [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 10.973 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 12.097 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 20.74% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 508.97 million yuan in 2023A to 1.23175 billion yuan in 2025E, indicating a growth of 48.33% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.40 yuan in 2023A to 0.97 yuan in 2025E [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 37.70 in 2023A to 15.58 in 2025E [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The report presents a weekly data tracking of secondary capital bonds from October 13, 2025, to October 17, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - One new secondary capital bond was issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets this week, with an issuance scale of 4.5 billion yuan, a maturity of 10 years. The issuer is a local state - owned enterprise in Jiangsu Province with a subject rating of AAAspc [1][6]. Secondary Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The total weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds was approximately 166.8 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3 billion yuan compared to last week. The top three bonds in terms of trading volume were 25 ICBC Secondary Capital Bond 02BC (6.075 billion yuan), 25 BOC Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (5.131 billion yuan), and 25 CCB Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (5.024 billion yuan) [2]. - **Regional Trading Volume**: The top three regions in terms of trading volume were Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, with trading volumes of approximately 129 billion yuan, 12.3 billion yuan, and 6.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Yield to Maturity**: As of October 17, the yield - to - maturity changes of 5Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA compared to last week were - 7.98BP, - 7.12BP, and - 7.12BP respectively; for 7Y bonds, the changes were - 9.74BP for all three ratings; for 10Y bonds, the changes were - 9.29BP, - 8.58BP, and - 8.58BP respectively [2][11]. Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Overall Situation**: The overall valuation deviation of the weekly average trading price of secondary capital bonds was not significant this week. The proportion of discount trading was greater than that of premium trading, and the discount range was larger than the premium range [3]. - **Discount Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest discount rates were 20 Fuxin Bank Secondary 01 (- 15.2060%), 17 Yanbian Rural Commercial Secondary 02 (- 2.5373%), and 22 Chengdu Rural Commercial Secondary 01 (- 0.7800%). The majority of ChinaBond implied ratings were AAA -, AA +, and A +, and the bonds were mainly distributed in Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai [3][13]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest premium rates were 22 Chouzhou Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.2822%), 21 Jinshang Bank Secondary 01 (0.2143%), and 21 Huishang Bank Secondary 01 (0.1652%). The majority of ChinaBond implied ratings were AAA -, AA, and AA +, and the bonds were mainly distributed in Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai [3][14].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251018 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251013-20251017） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251013-20251017）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 18 只，合计发行规模约 122.82 亿元，较上周减少 29.68 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年；发行人性质为地方国有企业、央企子公司、大型民企、其他 企业；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为广东省、北京市、贵 州省、江苏省、河南省、山东省、上海市、浙江省；发行债券种类为中 期票据、私募公司债、企业 ABS、交易商协会 ABN、超短期融资券。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251013-20251017）绿色债券周成交额合计 613 亿元，较上周增 加 195 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 306 亿元、226 亿元和 63 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 79.45%，市场热度持续；分 发行主体行业来看，成交量前三的行业为金融 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in non-recurring net profit by 29% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising metal prices and improved resource recovery capacity [7] - The company's operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 646 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.18% [7] - The report emphasizes the value of recycled resources amid rising metal prices, with the company expanding its resource recovery operations to include a wider range of metals [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 10.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.58% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is estimated at 504.64 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 27.13% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 0.33 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 23.09 [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 803.26 million, 909.25 million, and 1.05134 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.51, 12.82, and 11.08 [1][7] - The report anticipates a steady increase in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 367 million in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 67.29% [7] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 8.02 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 12.22 billion [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.28 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.57% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 23.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.38%, driven by the expansion of supply chain and other businesses [7] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% from 2025 to 2027, ensuring shareholder returns [7] - The company is advancing its green methanol project, aiming to establish a production capacity of 200,000 tons per year, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 8.72 billion yuan, 9.22 billion yuan, and 9.76 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 19.3, 18.2, and 17.2 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 25.54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 34.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is projected at 844.45 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.87% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is estimated at 0.65 yuan per share [1] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 19.31 billion yuan by 2024A, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.43% [6][8] - The operating cash flow for 2024A is projected at 1.75 billion yuan [8]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - From January 2020 to September 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 39 monetary policy easing operations[19] - During the 12 "bear steep" phases, the proportion of A-shares outperforming the 10-year government bond yield reached 53.8%[28] - In the 5 "bear flat" phases, this proportion increased to 66.2%[28] Group 2: Stock Performance by Style - Defensive stocks benefited significantly from monetary easing, with an average outperformance ratio of 50.4%[32] - Growth stocks, on the other hand, showed a more ambiguous benefit, with an average outperformance ratio of 48.3%[32] - The average outperformance ratios for defensive, semi-defensive, semi-cyclical, and cyclical stocks were 50.4%, 49.6%, 48.2%, and 47.6%, respectively, indicating a decreasing trend[32] Group 3: Economic Conditions and Expectations - If monetary easing coincides with improved expectations for corporate profits and economic recovery, equity markets may perform better despite a bear bond market[27] - The performance of growth stocks in response to monetary easing is conditional, while defensive stocks, which are less sensitive to economic cycles, show clearer benefits[27] - If the equity market lacks clear expectations for fundamental improvements, defensive stocks may still underperform relative to bonds during monetary easing periods[27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's non-net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 38% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow [2][3] - For Q1-3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 343 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.77%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 91 million yuan, up 28.88% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for Q1-3 2025 was 40.37%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 26.16%, up 2.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 340.47 million yuan, 2024A: 407.95 million yuan, 2025E: 534.23 million yuan, 2026E: 675.31 million yuan, 2027E: 842.74 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.70%, 19.82%, 30.96%, 26.41%, and 24.79% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: 2023A: 81.63 million yuan, 2024A: 100.52 million yuan, 2025E: 133.98 million yuan, 2026E: 171.07 million yuan, 2027E: 215.64 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.74%, 23.14%, 33.28%, 27.69%, and 26.05% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: 2023A: 0.56 yuan, 2024A: 0.69 yuan, 2025E: 0.92 yuan, 2026E: 1.17 yuan, 2027E: 1.47 yuan [1] Operational Insights - The company has demonstrated strong innovation and research capabilities, breaking the monopoly of DuPont in the aramid paper sector, making China the second country capable of producing aramid paper [4] - The company has established a solid customer base, including well-known domestic and international enterprises such as AVIC Group, CRRC, ABB, Siemens, and Schneider Electric [4] - The report anticipates growth in demand for aramid insulation paper in various sectors, including new energy vehicles, wind power, photovoltaic power, and domestic large aircraft, which will drive future revenue growth [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown strong growth in its main brand, with offline and children's clothing sales both increasing by approximately 10%, and e-commerce sales growing by about 20% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [7] - The rapid expansion of super stores has exceeded expectations, with 93 super stores opened by Q3 2025, including 80 large stores and 13 children's clothing stores, and an additional 20 large super stores expected to open in Q4 2025 [7] - The product matrix has been upgraded with new releases, including advanced running shoes and outdoor products, enhancing market competitiveness [7] - The outdoor brand ONEWAY has opened six new stores during the National Day holiday, indicating strong sales potential for the upcoming winter sports season [7] - The company maintains a low valuation with projected net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.62 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 8, 8, and 7 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,423 million yuan in 2023 to 13,990 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.01% in 2023 and declining to 10.57% by 2027 [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 961.43 million yuan in 2023 to 1,616.25 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 28.68% in 2023 and tapering to 10.89% by 2027 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.46 yuan in 2023 to 0.78 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 11.51 in 2023 to 6.85 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [1]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a recovery in direct financing and the continued activation of deposits, with expectations for fiscal and monetary policies to boost financing demand in Q4 2025 [1][4][6] - The social financing scale in September 2025 saw an increase of 3.53 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, slightly below the seasonal average [4][6] - The report notes that the structure of social financing is improving, indicating a recovery in direct financing, with corporate bond financing increasing by 10.5 billion yuan year-on-year [4][6] Fixed Income - The report discusses the upcoming issuance of Jinlang Convertible Bond 02, with a total issuance scale of 1.677 billion yuan, aimed at funding distributed photovoltaic projects [7][8] - The expected listing price range for Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 is between 111.44 and 123.92 yuan, with an anticipated subscription rate of 0.0069% [7][8] - Jinlang Technology, the issuer, has shown steady revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate of 33.10% from 2020 to 2024, despite fluctuations in net profit [8] Company Analysis - China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is projected to see a net profit increase of 40%-60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong performance in both underwriting and investment [9][10] - The underwriting profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with a combined cost ratio of 94.8% [9][10] - The report raises the profit forecast for China Pacific Insurance, estimating net profits of 48 billion, 49.4 billion, and 52.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [9][10]

Core Conclusions - The market is expected to refocus on investment opportunities in smart vehicles in Q4, driven by the ongoing AI trend and the advancement of L4 capabilities in autonomous vehicles [2][3] - Key catalysts for smart vehicle development in Q4 include Tesla's V14 release, Xiaopeng's technology day, and the introduction of new autonomous vehicles by various companies [2][3] - The report anticipates a significant increase in L4 player participation by 2026, marking a pivotal year for Robotaxi [2] Comparison with Last Year - Similarities include the ongoing expansion of AI applications; however, this year emphasizes the evolution of AI logic rather than a resonance with automotive logic [3] - The focus has shifted from hardware opportunities and consumer sales to software opportunities and breakthroughs in B2B applications [3] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategy favors Hong Kong stocks over A-shares, prioritizing software over hardware, and B2B applications over B2C [6] - Key investment targets include companies involved in Robotaxi and Robovan, as well as those focusing on consumer vehicle sales [6] Consumer Willingness to Pay for Smart Features - The report outlines a projected growth in the domestic Robotaxi market, with expectations of reaching a scale of 0-30% penetration by 2025-2027 [14][15] - The focus for 2025-2027 is on enhancing the penetration of electric vehicles to 50%-80% [15] Autonomous Driving Capability Comparison - The report highlights the improvement in autonomous driving capabilities across various manufacturers, with a narrowing gap between leading and emerging players [7][20] - Specific penetration rates for autonomous driving features are provided, indicating a strong performance from brands like Xiaopeng and Wuling [20][23] Supply Chain Tracking - The report includes a detailed analysis of the smart vehicle supply chain, identifying key players in hardware, software, and vehicle manufacturing [10] - It emphasizes the importance of collaboration between technology providers and vehicle manufacturers to enhance the overall smart vehicle ecosystem [10] Market Outlook - The report forecasts a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle market, with expected retail sales growth in 2025 [24] - It also notes the impact of government policies on vehicle scrappage and the potential for increased consumer demand [24]