Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 6.43%, ranking first among all primary industries, with industrial metals rising by 7.07% and precious metals by 4.06% [1][13]. - The market is currently characterized by low liquidity due to the Christmas holiday, leading to a lack of effective guidance and a reliance on momentum trading [1][25]. - Investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks as liquidity returns and adjustments in commodity indices occur in early January [1][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 4.54 percentage points [13]. - The industrial metals sector saw significant gains, with copper prices reaching 98,720 CNY/ton, up 5.95% week-on-week, and aluminum prices at 22,405 CNY/ton, up 0.99% [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: LME copper closed at 12,133 USD/ton, up 3.37% week-on-week. The TC price for imported copper ore fell to -43.2 USD/ton, indicating a significant drop from previous benchmarks [2][29]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices increased to 2,957 USD/ton, up 1.76% week-on-week, with domestic production capacity rising to 44.245 million tons [3][34]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices rose to 3,087 USD/ton, up 0.42% week-on-week, while SHFE zinc prices increased to 23,170 CNY/ton, up 0.46% [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin prices reached 42,490 USD/ton, up 0.51% week-on-week, with supply gradually increasing as production resumes in Myanmar [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at 4,562.00 USD/oz, up 4.54% week-on-week, while SHFE gold reached 1,016.30 CNY/g, up 3.71% [48][49]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver surged by 21.71% week-on-week, closing at 79.68 USD/oz, with SHFE silver up 19.14% to 18,319.00 CNY/ton [48][49]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories on LME decreased by 2.10% to 15.70 million tons, while SHFE inventories increased by 16.59% to 11.17 million tons [30]. - Aluminum inventories on LME rose by 0.28% to 52.11 million tons, and SHFE inventories increased by 6.64% to 12.85 million tons [34]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the impact of low liquidity and mixed economic data on market trends, emphasizing the need for investors to remain vigilant regarding potential market corrections in the coming weeks [1][48].

Group 1: Fiscal Outlook for 2026 - Despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may exceed expectations due to rising prices and unspent fiscal resources from 2025[3] - A 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion CNY in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio[3] - Unspent fiscal resources from 2025 are expected to exceed 500 billion CNY, contributing to a potential increase in public budget spending growth by about 2.6 percentage points[3] Group 2: Historical Context and Mechanisms - Historical data shows instances where the deficit ratio decreased while spending growth increased, notably in 2021-2022 and 2016-2018[8] - The increase in fiscal spending can be attributed to revenue growth, deficit increases, and the utilization of unspent funds from previous years[11] - In 2025, fiscal deposits increased by 2.04 trillion CNY, the highest level for the same period historically, indicating a significant fiscal surplus[33] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Changes in the real estate and land markets could significantly impact fiscal revenues and expenditures[38] - The estimated impact of rising prices on fiscal revenue is based on certain assumptions, which carry inherent risks[38] - Unexpected spending in December could reduce the anticipated fiscal surplus, affecting the overall fiscal outlook[38]

Group 1: Long-term Value - The report emphasizes the defensive value of dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market, showcasing their resilience amid market volatility, with a return drawdown ratio of 2.4 times [1][11] - Policy support has significantly increased the attractiveness of dividend assets, with A-share companies enhancing their dividend distributions, injecting long-term valuation momentum into these assets [1][16] - There is a sustained demand for long-term capital allocation from insurance funds, which are expected to continue flowing into dividend assets due to their stable returns and matching duration needs [1][17] - The report highlights that Hong Kong dividend assets outperform A-shares, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index yielding 6.7%, while state-owned enterprises (SOEs) show higher dividend yields compared to other sectors [1][24][25] Group 2: Mid-term Opportunities - The report anticipates a resurgence of dividend style excess returns in the second half of next year, as macro uncertainties may increase, favoring dividend stocks over growth stocks [2][41] - In the first half of the year, growth stocks are expected to dominate due to favorable liquidity conditions and sector trends, particularly in AI and technology [2][34] - The report suggests that the attractiveness of dividend stocks will increase as long-term interest rates decline, enhancing their appeal and potentially leading to valuation increases [2][41] Group 3: Investment Analysis of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index - The index focuses on high-dividend SOEs within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [3][11] - Since 2020, the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index has achieved a cumulative return of 40.4%, outperforming both A/H broad indices and similar products [3][11] - The index is heavily weighted towards quality large-cap SOEs in sectors like energy and telecommunications, providing a differentiated investment opportunity compared to A/H market indices [3][13] - The strong dividend-paying capacity of the index is expected to be reinforced by ongoing policies aimed at enhancing the valuation of SOEs [3][15] Group 4: Product Introduction - The Invesco Great Wall National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF offers investors a tool to gain exposure to the Hong Kong SOE dividend sector, with a fund size of 5.62 billion yuan as of December 26, 2025 [4][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance sector [1]. Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution of participating insurance in China, highlighting its significance in a low-interest-rate environment and the shift towards floating yield products, which are gaining traction among domestic investors [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. What is Participating Insurance? - Participating insurance is a type of insurance that combines protection and investment, allowing policyholders to share in the insurer's surplus [12]. - The operational mechanism involves sharing profits derived from better-than-expected performance, with a minimum of 70% of the surplus distributed to policyholders [6][15]. 2. Historical Development of Participating Insurance in Mainland China - The development of participating insurance has seen significant fluctuations influenced by policy and market factors, with its market share peaking at 75% in 2010 before declining due to market reforms [6][45]. - Since 2024, regulatory policies have encouraged the development of floating yield products, marking a consensus in the industry towards transitioning to participating insurance [6][45]. 3. Current Transition of Participating Insurance - The report anticipates that the proportion of participating insurance will continue to rise, with over 50% of new policies in the first half of 2025 being participating insurance [6][45]. - The transition is expected to alleviate pressure from interest rate losses and enhance the reliability of the insurance sector's embedded value (EV) [6][45]. 4. International Experience - In mature markets, floating yield products dominate, with Hong Kong's participating insurance being a core component, accounting for 85% of new premiums in 2024 [2][6]. - The report suggests that the characteristics of participating insurance in Hong Kong, such as multi-currency support and a design of low guarantees with high floating returns, could serve as a model for the mainland market [2][6]. 5. Key Metrics for Evaluating Participating Insurance - The report outlines four key indicators for assessing the performance of participating insurance: 1. **Guaranteed Rate**: Currently set at 1.75%, which is lower than traditional insurance [23]. 2. **Demonstration Rate**: Reflects expected returns, with current rates around 3.5% to 4% [24]. 3. **Actual Yield**: The industry average is capped at 3.2%, with some companies exceeding this limit [27]. 4. **Dividend Realization Rate**: Increased by 11 percentage points to 62% in 2024, indicating improved management and expectation guidance [29].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20251230 超万亿美元贸易顺差流向哪里？ 2025 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《以史为鉴：鲍威尔成为美联储"太 上皇"的尾部风险有多大？》 2025-12-29 《12 月出口增速预计将小幅回落》 2025-12-28 东吴证券研究所 1 / 12 ◼ 出口企业的贸易顺差并不必然带动等额外汇储备的增加，在境内外融资 利差、资产收益率等因素的影响下，企业在"赚来"美元之后，"留存" 境外市场一部分，通过境内银行流入国内结汇成人民币一部分、以外汇 存款方式持有一部分，并以资本和金融账户为基础渠道，逐步累积起厂 房设备、股票和债券、贸易贷款等海外净资产头寸。 ◼ 商品贸易"赚来多少"：近 6 年内高达 4.9 万亿美元。从 2020 年至 2025 年 11 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The successful grid connection of the second phase of the Guyana solar-storage project and the ongoing progress of overseas green electricity projects are key highlights [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for air pollution control equipment, with a projected net profit growth of 63.15% in 2024 and continued growth in subsequent years [8] - The company has a strong order backlog of 19.7 billion, which is expected to accelerate revenue recognition [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to decline by 7.64% in 2023, followed by a recovery with a growth of 20.74% in 2025 [8][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 508.97 million in 2023, increasing to 1.23 billion by 2025, representing a growth of 48.33% [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.97 in 2025 [8][9] Market Position - The company is positioned as the largest manufacturer of air pollution control equipment globally, benefiting from market demand driven by new construction and upgrades in the power and non-power sectors [8] - The company has successfully completed five international projects this year, enhancing its strategic layout in the mining equipment sector [8]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·计算机 计算机行业深度报告 关注地方国企资本运作——国企改革和地方 增收的交汇点 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/12/30 2025/4/30 2025/8/29 2025/12/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《梳理 SpaceX 的 A 股供应商》 2025-12-29 《商业航天 还有哪 些事件 值得期 待？》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 土地财政规模承压，盘活存量资产。地方财政收入来源一共"四本账"， 其中国有土地使用权出让收入一直是地方财政收入的重要来源，而 2022 年以来，土地财政收入规模承压，因此 2022 年开始，国家和地方都陆 续出台了各项政策和措施提升土地使用权出让以外的财政收入，路径 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·计算机 计算机行业深度报告 太空算力：苍穹之上的下一代计算范式 2025 年 12 月 30 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王世杰 执业证书：S0600523080004 wangshijie@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/12/30 2025/4/30 2025/8/29 2025/12/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《梳理 SpaceX 的 A 股供应商》 2025-12-29 《商业航天 还有哪 些事件 值得期 待？》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 证券分析师 王紫敬 ◼ 太空算力是构建于地球轨道上的下一代分布式计算范式。将数据中心的 核心硬件部署于太空，形成轨道级 AI 基础设施，实现数据在采集源头 完成处理与分析，从而将卫星从传统的"数据下行中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry, specifically focusing on the waste incineration sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the dual drivers of improved operating cash flow in the waste incineration sector: a decrease in capital expenditure and accelerated national subsidies. Since 2023, the sector has seen an improvement in free cash flow and dividend capacity primarily due to reduced capital expenditures [3][5]. - The report estimates that when capital expenditures reach maintenance levels (1.5% of total assets), the dividend potential for 2024 could be as high as 141% [3]. - The national subsidy recovery is expected to accelerate significantly in 2025, with a projected average recovery rate of around 89%, up from 39% in 2024 [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. National Subsidy Recovery for Waste Incineration - The average account period for national subsidies is stable at around 2 years, with a slowdown in the growth of outstanding payments [8][10]. - The national subsidy recovery rate for the waste incineration sector has improved significantly, with a single-quarter operating cash flow net amount of 6.33 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59% [13][15]. - Companies like Guangda Environment and Huanlan Environment have reported substantial improvements in subsidy recovery, with Guangda receiving approximately 20.64 billion RMB in subsidies from July to August 2025 [14][20]. 2. Renewable Energy Subsidy Fund - The renewable energy development fund is expected to reach a balance between income and expenditure around 2025, allowing for the gradual clearance of outstanding subsidies [24][25]. - The fund's income has been steadily increasing, while expenditure has reached its limit, indicating a potential for future surplus [24][25]. - By 2036, it is anticipated that historical outstanding subsidies will be resolved naturally as the pressure from subsidy expenditures decreases [25]. 3. Dividend Potential Assessment - The report calculates that the dividend potential for the waste incineration sector could rise from 114% to 141% with the acceleration of national subsidy recovery [3][19]. - The improvement in cash flow from national subsidies is expected to enhance the cash flow value of the sector, supporting the logic of increasing dividends and return on equity (ROE) [3][19]. - Key companies recommended for investment based on their dividend value include Huanlan Environment, Green Power, and Guangda Environment [3].

Macro Strategy - The report highlights the potential risk of Jerome Powell becoming a "de facto emperor" of the Federal Reserve, as he may choose to remain on the board after his term as chair ends, thereby influencing monetary policy despite a new chair being appointed [1][9][10] - The market is expected to react to Powell's potential decision, leading to a short-term narrative of dollar credit recovery, impacting the dollar index, U.S. stocks, and short-term Treasury yields positively, while gold and commodities may face downward pressure [1][9] Economic Indicators - The report anticipates a slight decline in December export growth, with infrastructure work showing a seasonal rebound in mid to late December [11][12] - The ECI supply index is reported at 49.93%, indicating a marginal decrease, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity [11][12] Industry Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming market conditions [2][16] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a growing investment theme, particularly with the increasing recognition of satellite ETFs [2][16] Company Insights - Qianfang Technology (002373) is noted for its advancements in autonomous logistics, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 340 million, 496 million, and 680 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Dongfang Cable (603606) has secured significant contracts totaling 9.55 billion yuan for green transmission facilities and 19 billion yuan for high-voltage submarine cables, indicating strong growth potential in the Southeast Asian market [8]