证券研究报告·行业点评报告·医药生物 医药生物行业点评报告 医疗前沿科技：未来已来，蓄势待发 2024 年 12 月 07 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 AI 医疗：近日，有关 AI 医疗政策频出,包括：1）上海重磅部署：打造 医学人工智能标的；2）卫健委印发《卫生健康行业人工智能应用场景 参考指引》；3）上海第一人民医院 21 款数据产品挂牌交易；4）人工智 能辅助诊断首次被列入价格构成等。我们认为，人工智能已是医疗领域 必不可少的一部分。AI 在医疗中的应用，不仅有助于提升医疗服务的精 准度和个性化程度，还能为医疗决策提供科学依据，推动医疗行业的创 新发展，其主要表现在智能化、高效化、便捷化。在智能化方面，通过 运用大数据、人工智能等技术，AI 医疗能够快速准确地诊断疾病，提高 诊断的准确性和效率。医生可以根据患者的历史数据、基因数据、生活 习惯数据等，进行综合分析，为患者提供个性化的诊断方案及治疗方案， 诊疗过程中通过对患者的生理数据、药物反应数据等进行实时监 测和 分析，医生可以及时调整治疗方案，提高治疗效果；在高效化方面，AI 医疗能够通过优化医 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·电子 电子行业深度报告 2025 年度策略：聚焦 AI 终端及自主可控！ 2024 年 12 月 06 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 看好果链及智能眼镜为代表的 AI 终端长期趋势，补贴有望刺激手机需 求全面回暖：1）果链 AI 创新：6 月苹果发布 AppleIntelligence，Canalys 预测 2024 年全球 AI 智能手机市场份额为 16%，2023 至 2028 年间，AI 手机市场 CAGR 预计为 63%，AI 手机中 SoC 及存储是算力提升关键， 散热配套升级，果链 AI 创新有望带动新一轮换机周期。2)智能眼镜终 端：Ray-BanMeta 的成功证明了智能眼镜类产品成为 AI 终端落地场景 的可行性，光学方案与显示器件占 AR 设备成本约 50%，是产业链降本 增效的核心环节，未来随着产业巨头加速布局与供应链降本增效的推 进，AI+AR 眼镜有望快速发展。3）补贴刺激：自今年 10 月多地推出纳 入手机等 3C 产品的消费券后，国内手机消费需求得到显著刺激。随着 11 月乃至未来各地持续推出针 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·汽车 汽车行业点评报告 新势力跟踪之 11 月销量点评:13 车企新能源 车企合计交付同比+63%，行业交付符合预期 2024 年 12 月 05 日 增持（维持） 证券分析师 黄细里 执业证书：S0600520010001 021-60199793 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孟璐 执业证书：S0600524100001 mengl@dwzq.com.cn [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 11 月 13 家新势力车企整体交付量环比+4%。13 家新能源乘用车重点车 企交付量合计 96.58 万辆，同环比分别+63%/+4%。 ◼ 11 月汇总车企动态来看，出海&补能设施建设&智能化迭代为重心。1） 理想：11 月交付新车 48,740 辆，同环比分别+19%/-5%。截至 11 月底， 理想汽车在全国已有 475 家零售中心，覆盖 141 个城市；在全国已投入 使用 1501 座理想超充站，拥有 5168 个充电桩。2）小鹏：11 月共交付 新车 30,895 辆，同环比分别+54%/+29%。11 月 7 日"全球首 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 新华保险举牌海通证券 H 股，体现对资本市 场与优质券商发展信心 2024 年 12 月 05 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 【事件】12 月 4 日，新华保险官网发布关于举牌海通证券 H 股的公告， 系近五年来首次险资举牌券商股。 ◼ 举牌海通证券 H 股后又三次增持。1）11 月 28 日新华保险通过港股通 以集中竞价交易方式增持海通证券 H 股 400 万股，交易后合计占 H 股 股本的 5.02%，账面余额 10.65 亿元。2）另据海通证券公告，11 月 29 日、12 月 2 日、3 日新华资产又分别买入 797.28 万股、800 万股、800 万股，最新持股 1.95 亿股，占 H 股比例 5.72%，占总股本 1.49%。 ◼ 我们认为，本次举牌体现了新华保险对资本市场长期发展的信心，并看 好券商合并投资机遇。1）今年以来监管政策积极，着力活跃资本市场， 引导长期资金入市。券商作为资本市场重要参与者和中介方，有望在活 跃资本市场的背景下持续受益。目前 H 股券商估值具有吸引力，万 ...

证券研究报告 资负共振，长期可期 ——保险行业2025年投资策略 证券分析师：孙 婷 SAC执业证书编号：S0600524120001 邮箱：sunt@dwzq.com.cn 2024年12月05日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心要点 ➢ 2024年经营回顾：全面向好，利润、价值高增长。1）净利润超高增长：受股市回暖等带动，上市险企2024年前三季度 投资收益大幅提升，归母净利润增速创近年来新高，我们预计在23Q4低基数基础上，2024年全年净利润有望延续高增 长势头。2）新单短期承压，但NBV表现亮眼。在高基数压力以及报行合一影响银保业务等背景下，上市险企2024年新 单保费短期略承压，其中Q3受炒停影响出现短期高峰，Q4增速预计回落。但受益于预定利率下调、报行合一优化渠道 费用以及业务结构持续改善，NBV margin显著改善，带动NBV在上年高基数基础上再次实现快速增长。3）代理人队伍 量稳质升，银保渠道NBV贡献仍在提升。随着各公司改革转型逐步显效，代理人规模已基本企稳，部分公司迎来止跌回 升，且人均产能普遍改善。银保新单增长虽承压，但是NBV margin显著向好，NBV贡献进一步提升。4） ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20241130 经济修复分化，等待 12 月政策接力 ——11 月 PMI 数据点评 2024 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 11 月 30 日，国家统计局公布 11 月 PMI 数据。制造业采购经理指数 （PMI）为 50.3%，比上月回升 0.2 个百分点。建筑业 PMI 指数为 49.7%， 比上月回落 0.7 个百分点；服务业 PMI 指数为 50.1%，与上月持平。 观点 ◼ 在前期"一揽子增量政策"的带动下，11 月经济继续修复，但修复动能 在边际走弱。动能趋弱体现在 PMI 环比增速方面，9 月和 10 月制造业 PMI 环比增速分别为 0.7%和 0.3%，相比 2013-2023 年同期的历史均值 高 0.5 和 0.6 个点；而 11 月制造业 PMI 环比增速降至 0.2%，尽管仍高 于历史均值，但幅度收窄至 0.1 个点。 ◼ 除了动能趋弱外，更重要的变化是行业分化。按照 11 月环比增速来看 行业景气度的变化，制造业环比+0.3%>服务业环比 0>建筑业环比0.7%。制造业改善是 ...

证券研究报告·行业月报·证券Ⅱ 东吴金融 财富管理月报（2024/11） 基金成交额及换手率环比双降，ETF 总规模 持续扩张态势 2024 年 12 月 05 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 2024 年 11 月，基金指数净值小幅上涨后回落，股票指数型、债券型基 金收益明显高于沪深 300，而普通股票型、偏股混合型基金收益明显低 于沪深 300。 ◼ 2024 年 11 月，股票型 ETF 基金资金净流出 504.19 亿元，现存总规模 25345.09 亿元。宽基 ETF 方面，净流出 549.06 亿元，规模维持在 19197.85 亿元；行业与主题 ETF 方面，净流入 46.09 亿元，规模维持在 5860.04 亿元；风格 ETF 方面，净流出 1.22 亿元，规模维持 287.20 亿元。 ◼ 金融板块 ETF 呈现资金流入态势。截至 11 月 29 日收盘，银行 ETF 总 市值达 161.13 亿元，净流入 15.16 亿元；证券 ETF 总市值达 819.85 亿 元，净流入 9.13 亿元。 ◼ 基金日均成交额同比显著上升，环比下 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-12-05 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20241204：顺势而为，见"风"使舵——2025 年度展望（六） 之资产配置策略 从国内经济政策、监管政策、海外政策落地三个方向上，我们认为，市场 对部分政策的预期已经反应在目前的市场交易信息当中，与 2024 年市场 所呈现的状态一样，政策方向已经确认，但对于力度和时间节点的判断不 甚明确。基本面数据初现拐点，整体跟随基本面确认过程平台式向上，但 市场短期在基本面持续向上的判断上仍存疑虑，走势仍有波折。因此，在 明年的全年节奏上，我们认为应该"乘风而行"，上半年，海外宽财政预 期带来的美元上行风险和未明确时段的加关税预期可能压制A 股估值中 枢，在此期间，由于政策应对和基本面传导时滞的影响"风力"较弱，指 数性机会概率偏低，策略选择上倾向于"不转舵"，关注高股息+被美压制 的科技产业国产替代机会，呈现高股息+小盘科技的哑铃结构。下半年， 如果能看到 CPI 拐点向上、PPI 持续改善，企业盈利周期拐点出现，顺周 期政策的执行效果渐显，"风力" ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector, suggesting a potential turnaround in 2025 after years of underperformance [3] Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector has faced significant challenges over the past 3-4 years, with the healthcare index declining by approximately 50% due to factors such as medical insurance surplus pressure, centralized procurement expansion, medical anti-corruption campaigns, consumption downgrading, and geopolitical tensions [3] - The report predicts a strong recovery in 2025, supported by favorable industry policies, attractive valuations, adjustment cycles, and improved shareholding structures [3] - Key sub-sectors are ranked as follows: innovative drugs > consumer healthcare > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies > pharmaceutical commerce [3] Sub-sector Analysis Innovative Drugs - Domestic innovative drugs are gaining global competitiveness, with a strategic focus on achieving profitability and expanding overseas markets [4] - The number of clinical trials for domestic new drugs has steadily increased from 207 in 2020 to 286 in 2023, with a notable rise in high-tech therapies and first-in-class products [4] - Overseas markets are opening up new growth opportunities, with license-out transactions reaching $33.6 billion in Q1-Q3 2024, a 100% YoY increase [4] - Domestic policies are strengthening support for innovative drugs, with a 90% success rate in the 2024 national negotiation catalog, 16 percentage points higher than the overall success rate [4] Consumer Healthcare - The consumer healthcare sector is expected to benefit from policy flexibility and a potential recovery in consumer spending [5] - Aging populations and healthcare consumption upgrades are driving demand growth and diversification in medical services [5] - New technologies and procedures are expected to drive average price levels, while leading companies are likely to gain market share through scale, brand, and efficiency advantages [5] Medical Devices - The medical device sector is poised for growth in 2025, driven by aging populations, innovation, and overseas expansion [6] - Domestic replacement and overseas exports are expected to support long-term stable development, with medical equipment renewal projects in some provinces reaching ¥6.308 billion [6] - High-value consumables and IVD products are likely to see accelerated domestic replacement, with penetration rates expected to continue rising [6] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - TCM is favored in the domestic healthcare cycle, with policy pressures gradually easing and valuations becoming more attractive [7] - The Hubei TCM centralized procurement rules have been finalized, with major concerns such as pediatric formulas and Dan Di not included in the catalog [7] - TCM valuations are below 20x for 2025 earnings expectations, with public fund holdings at only 8.5% in Q3 2024 [7] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends key companies across various sub-sectors, including BeiGene, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Haishan Pharmaceuticals, Innovent Biologics, Aier Eye Hospital, Purui Eye Hospital, Imeik Technology, Zuli Pharmaceuticals, United Imaging Healthcare, and Mindray Medical [8] Market Performance and Fundamentals - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed in 2024, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index falling 9.3% YTD, underperforming the CSI 300 by 23.4 percentage points [20] - Chemical pharmaceuticals and APIs led the gains among sub-sectors, while TCM, pharmaceutical commerce, medical devices, medical services, and biologics experienced declines [20] - The sector's P/E ratio stood at 28x as of November 29, 2024, approximately 79% of the 14-year median of 35.5x [20] Policy Developments Medical Insurance Surplus - Medical insurance funds turned positive in Q4 2024, with urban and rural medical insurance surpluses rebounding in September [41] - The government has introduced measures to ease financial pressures on medical institutions, including a prepayment system for drug and medical consumable purchases [42] DRG and Centralized Procurement - DRG implementation has significantly reduced per-hospitalization costs, with average costs for urban and rural medical insurance dropping by 5.5% and 5.6% respectively in 2023 [48] - Centralized procurement of orthopedic implants has led to short-term surpluses for certain departments, with oncology, orthopedics, and ICU departments performing well [49] Commercial Health Insurance - Commercial health insurance is expected to play a larger role in the healthcare system, with policies promoting "medical insurance + commercial insurance" one-stop settlement [65] - Pilot programs in cities like Jinan and Zhejiang are exploring data sharing and integrated settlement systems between medical and commercial insurance [66] Centralized Drug Procurement - The average price reduction across nine rounds of centralized drug procurement is 53.5%, with the first and ninth rounds seeing the highest reductions of around 58% [69] - Insulin procurement saw a 3.8% price reduction in the latest round, with 14 products experiencing price increases [70] Medical Anti-Corruption - The medical anti-corruption campaign has entered a new phase, with 2024 being the most challenging year and 2025 expected to see marginal easing [76] - Regulatory bodies are focusing on standardizing commercial bribery practices and improving the management of medical institutions [77] Consumer Healthcare Sub-sectors Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics sector has seen a slowdown in growth due to consumption downgrading, with mature products experiencing significant deceleration [80] - New materials and products, such as collagen-based treatments, are driving growth in the sector [80] Ophthalmology - Refractive and optometry services have seen slower growth in 2024, with average prices declining due to consumption downgrading [86] - Cataract surgery rates remain low compared to developed countries, with significant growth potential driven by aging populations and new surgical techniques [89] Dental - Dental implant procurement has led to significant price reductions, accelerating industry consolidation and driving volume growth [96] - Orthodontic services have been heavily impacted by consumption downgrading, but the market for invisible aligners remains underpenetrated with significant growth potential [96]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 山西汾酒（600809） 巩固成果，砥砺复兴 2024 年 12 月 04 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 26214 | 31928 | 36319 | 40712 | 46751 | | 同比（ % ） | 31.26 | 21.80 | 13.75 | 12.10 | 14.83 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 8096 | 10438 | 12204 | 13676 | 15794 | | 同比（ % ） | 52.36 | 28.93 | 16.91 | 12.06 | 15.49 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 6.64 | 8.56 | 10.00 | 11.21 | 12.95 | ...