Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - Over the next three years, Saudi Aramco plans to execute 85 major projects covering oil and gas production, pipeline networks, and civil infrastructure, with significant investment in oil and petrochemical sectors [1] - Saudi Aramco's capital expenditure guidance for 2025 remains between $52 billion and $58 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% to 15%, indicating sustained demand for oil service equipment [2] - Companies like Jereh and Neway are positioned to benefit from the surge in orders in the Middle East due to their technological advantages and market access [3] - Investment recommendations highlight Jereh for its high visibility in Middle Eastern orders and Neway for its stable growth due to proactive capacity planning [4] Summary by Sections Major Projects and Investment - Saudi Aramco's upcoming projects include significant upgrades in oil, gas, and refining facilities, with a procurement list that includes 21,000 kilometers of carbon steel pipelines, 2.2 million tons of structural steel, and 41,000 kilometers of cables [1] Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure for Saudi Aramco is projected to grow, benefiting leading companies with technological advantages and market access [2] Company Opportunities - Neway has successfully established itself as a core supplier of valves across the oil and gas value chain, directly supplying to Saudi Aramco and expanding local production capacity [3] - Jereh has built brand recognition in the Middle East through successful project completions, aligning its core products with the needs of Saudi Aramco's planned investments [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Jereh for its unique position in the Middle East and Neway for its consistent performance and strategic capacity planning [4]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250918 9 月 FOMC：重启降息——2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评 2025 年 09 月 18 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《特朗普干预美联储独立性的三个途 径》 2025-09-15 《供需分化的三个结果——8 月经济 数据点评》 2025-09-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：9 月 FOMC 如期降息 25bps，点阵图指引年内还有 2 次降 息，基本符合预期，但同时指引明年还有额外 1 次降息，相比市场预期 明显偏鹰。发布会上 Powell 对于就业和通胀的观点与 8 ...

Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to occur through three main avenues: nominating a compliant Fed Chair, adjusting the personnel structure of the Fed Board, and intervening in the appointment of regional Fed presidents [1][18] - With the new Fed Chair's appointment, Trump is anticipated to have greater influence, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts than currently priced in by the market, with the policy rate possibly falling below the neutral level of 3% [1][18] Economic Commentary - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, leading to a situation where supply adjustments lag behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand [2][19] - The industrial production growth rate remained above 5%, indicating resilience in the supply side despite a slight decline, while GDP growth is expected to remain around 5% in Q3 [2][19] - The divergence between supply and demand is unsustainable, and if demand does not strengthen, supply is likely to follow suit, leading to greater pressure on GDP in Q4 compared to Q3 [2][19] Fixed Income Market - The market is seeing an increase in expectations for the resumption of "government bond trading," with significant liquidity measures being implemented, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation [4][22] - The anticipated resumption of government bond trading could stabilize bond yields and further lower financing costs for the real economy [4][22] Industry Analysis - The battery sector is expected to see price increases for energy storage cells, marking the end of a three-year deflation period, with leading companies like CATL and others showing strong performance [15] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the battery sector, particularly for companies with low valuations and strong earnings potential, such as Tianqi Lithium and others [15] - The solid-state battery segment is also emphasized as a key area for investment, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and others being recommended [15]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 先导智能（300450） 交付多条固态电池干法成膜设备，龙头强者 恒强 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,628 | 11,855 | 13,800 | 15,850 | 19,000 | | 同比（%） | 19.35 | (28.71) | 16.41 | 14.86 | 19.87 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,774.57 | 286.10 | 1,533.42 | 2,040.81 | 2,483.70 | | 同比（%） | (23.45) | (83.88) | 435.97 | 33.09 | 21.70 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.13 | 0.18 | 0.98 | 1.30 | 1.59 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 48.54 | 301.08 | 56.17 | 42.21 | 34.68 | [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the battery sector, particularly favoring leading companies like CATL and others in the second tier [1]. Core Insights - The battery sector is experiencing robust growth, with CATL leading in profit contribution and market share, while second-tier companies show significant improvement [2][3]. - Demand for energy storage batteries is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected global demand of 1,877 GWh in 2025, representing a 35% year-on-year increase [2]. - The report highlights the acceleration of battery exports and the development of new technologies, with leading companies setting the pace [2]. Summary by Sections PART 1: Operational Comparison - CATL's profit contribution in the battery sector reached 90%, with the battery segment accounting for 42% of the overall industry profit in Q2 2025, reflecting a 7% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - Second-tier companies are showing signs of recovery, with gross margins improving to 15-20% [2][5]. PART 2: Demand Outlook - Global demand for energy storage batteries is expected to reach 521 GWh in 2025, a 60% increase year-on-year, with further growth anticipated in 2026 [2][20]. - The report indicates that the price of energy storage batteries has stabilized and is beginning to recover, leading to improved profitability [2][21]. PART 3: Industry Trends - The report notes that leading companies are accelerating their overseas production capacity to meet local supply needs, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia [2][3]. - Technological advancements are ongoing, with a focus on larger cell sizes and improved performance metrics [2][3]. PART 4: Valuation Comparison and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies have a clear valuation advantage, with CATL being the top pick, followed by other notable firms such as Yiwei Lithium Energy and Xinwangda [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued profitability in the battery sector, particularly for leading companies and those with low valuations [2][3].

Group 1 - The report indicates that gold is currently at an overbought level, with a 14-day RSI of 78, suggesting potential profit-taking and increased volatility in the short term [1][2] - There is a lack of consistent trend in gold ETF flows, with significant inflows in US ETFs amounting to approximately $367 billion, while Chinese ETFs have seen outflows exceeding $26.5 billion, marking China as the only region with notable reductions [1][2] - The demand for physical gold delivery remains limited, as gold inventories have not significantly increased, indicating that the short-term squeeze on physical gold is relatively constrained [2][3] Group 2 - The market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts for the year, with no further upward adjustments expected, despite a pessimistic outlook on the US economy due to weak employment data [3][4] - Historical analysis shows that preemptive interest rate cuts do not necessarily lead to a significant depreciation of the US dollar, with the dollar often recovering in the months following such cuts [3][4] - The relative strength of the euro may be temporary, as the European Central Bank has limited room for further monetary easing compared to the US, which may alleviate downward pressure on the dollar if the US economy shows resilience [3][4]

Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to occur through three main avenues: 1) appointing a Fed chair who is loyal to him, anticipated to be nominated in November and take office in May next year; 2) restructuring the Fed Board to eliminate dissenting members and install loyalists; 3) influencing the appointment of regional Fed presidents whose terms expire in February [1][20]. - With the new Fed chair's appointment, it is projected that the Fed will have a more significant influence on monetary policy, potentially leading to a greater than expected rate cut in 2026, with policy rates possibly falling below the neutral level of 3% [1][20]. Economic Data Analysis - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, with supply adjustments lagging behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand. Specifically, investment has shown negative growth for two consecutive months, and retail sales growth has been declining since May [2][21]. - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to yield three outcomes: 1) GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%; 2) the current supply exceeding demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery; 3) if demand does not strengthen, supply will likely follow suit, leading to greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3 [2][21]. Industry Insights - The gaming industry in H1 2025 has shown strong performance, driven by innovative categories such as "micro-horror search and escape" and "overseas SLG," which have positively impacted the performance and valuation of corresponding companies [15]. - In the shipbuilding sector, new ship price indices remain high, and the merger of major shipbuilding companies is nearing completion, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Shipbuilding [15]. - The environmental sector is seeing advancements in pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, particularly in waste-to-energy projects, which could enhance the economic viability of green electricity supply [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a total of 184 merger and acquisition (M&A) events from September 1 to September 14, with 57 being significant M&A transactions. Out of these, 34 M&A events were completed, including 2 major ones [9][12]. - Recent policy updates from various local governments, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, emphasize support for high-end medical device industries and synthetic biology through M&A activities, aiming to enhance international development and industry integration [7]. - The restructuring index outperformed the Wind All A index by 1.52% during the same period, suggesting a favorable market environment for restructuring activities [21]. Summary by Sections 1. M&A Dynamics Review - The report covers M&A activities from September 1 to September 14, noting a total of 184 events, with 4 failures among listed companies [9][15]. 2. Policy Updates - On September 15, Shanghai's government released an action plan to promote the high-end medical device industry, encouraging M&A for optimizing layouts and accelerating internationalization [7]. - Shenzhen's regulations also support the synthetic biology industry, promoting collaboration between quality enterprises and financial institutions for M&A fund establishment [7]. 3. Major M&A Updates - A total of 16 significant M&A events involved state-owned enterprises as buyers, with notable transactions including the acquisition of 89.3% equity in Huaihe Energy by a local state-owned enterprise [12][13]. 4. M&A Failure Events - The report identifies 4 failed M&A attempts by companies such as China Power and Cisco Ray, indicating challenges in the current M&A landscape [15]. 5. Control Changes - Seven listed companies reported changes in actual control, reflecting ongoing shifts in corporate governance and ownership structures [18]. 6. Market Performance - The restructuring index showed a positive trend, outperforming the broader market index, indicating strong investor interest in restructuring activities [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dingzhi Technology [1] Core Views - Dingzhi Technology plans to acquire 51% of the precision gear company Sailun Tech for approximately 100 million yuan, enhancing its "precision transmission + intelligent drive" capabilities [7] - The acquisition is expected to improve the company's product structure and increase its core technology competitiveness and profitability [7] - The integration of Dingzhi's motor products with Sailun's gear products is anticipated to create a comprehensive solution for various applications, including robotics and medical devices [7] - The financial forecasts for Dingzhi Technology have been adjusted upwards, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 460 million, 590 million, and 720 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 282.47 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.31% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 80.91 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.80% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 0.43 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 99.35 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 738 million yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 8.33% [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The performance of A-share game companies in H1 2025 is strong, driven by two innovative game categories: "Micro Horror Search and Fight" and "Overseas SLG" [2]. - "Micro Horror Search and Fight" is expected to become a long-lasting game with a high profit margin, enhancing the performance of companies like Giant Network [2]. - The overseas SLG market is entering a new expansion cycle, with leading companies showing significant advantages [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Micro Horror Search and Fight: Long-lasting Games with High DAU - The "Search and Fight" category creates a loop of investment, risk, and return, making players addicted through high failure penalties and strong victory rewards [10]. - The game "Supernatural Action Group" targets the casual social and female-oriented segment, with no current competitors in the market, indicating potential for sustained growth [2][20]. - The female gaming market is projected to reach 8 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 124.1% year-on-year, highlighting the increasing importance of female players [11]. 2. Overseas SLG: New Expansion Cycle in the Industry - The overseas SLG mobile game market is expected to reach $124.64 billion in 2024 and $73.08 billion in H1 2025, with year-on-year growth of 17% and 25% respectively [43]. - Chinese companies are projected to generate $185.57 billion in overseas revenue in 2024, with strategy games accounting for 41.38% of the top 100 games [43]. - SLG games have high user value, with the average revenue per download (RPD) for 4X SLG being 8-9 times higher than the overall mobile game level [44]. 3. Major Companies - Giant Network is expected to benefit significantly from "Supernatural Action Group," which could lead to a "Davis Double" effect, enhancing both revenue and valuation [71].