核心观点：2024年板块业绩增速稳健，建议关注估值回落的国产龙头 证券研究报告 叉车行业2024年报&2025年一季报总结 内外需求磨底，关注智慧物流打造第二成长曲线 证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 联系邮箱：zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究员：韦译捷 执业证书编号：S0600122080061 联系邮箱：weiyj@dwzq.com.cn 二零二五年五月九日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 我们选取四家公司安徽合力、杭叉集团、诺力股份、中力股份为分析对象。 投资逻辑 ⚫ 受益锂电产品出海，板块业绩增速稳健 2024年叉车板块业绩维持稳健增长。收入端，受国内制造业景气度下滑，大车需求减少，增速放缓，利润端，受益高毛利 率海外业务、电车占比提升，增速显著强于营收。2024年叉车板块实现营收473亿元，同比增长2% ，其中国内营收259亿元， 同比下降2%，海外营收215亿元，同比增长7%，海外营收占比提升2pct至45%，受到核心市场欧、美景气度下降，基数提 升影响，海外市场增速环比有所下降。2024年叉车板块实现归母净利润46亿元，同比增长9%，销售毛利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the electric power equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The overall holdings in the new energy sector have decreased, with declines observed in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, wind power, and electric grid sectors, while the industrial control sector has seen an increase [1] - The proportion of holdings in the new energy vehicle sector for Q1 2025 is 5.20%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - The photovoltaic sector's holdings have decreased to 3.33%, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - The wind power sector's holdings have decreased to 2.84%, down 0.27 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - The nuclear power sector's holdings have decreased to 0.64%, down 0.07 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] - The industrial control and electric power equipment sector's overall holdings have increased to 5.69%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the electric power equipment sector's holdings have decreased to 1.95%, down 0.18 percentage points [4] - The energy storage sector's overall holdings have decreased to 7.80%, down 0.61 percentage points from the previous quarter [5] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Overall holdings have decreased, with upstream lithium mining and charging piles declining, while core components, complete vehicles, and new technologies have increased [24] - Upstream lithium mining holdings decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 1.64% [25] - Midstream holdings decreased by 0.98 percentage points to 8.86%, with increases in structural components, positive electrodes, separators, additives, aluminum foil, and copper foil, while battery, negative electrode, and electrolyte holdings decreased [27] - Core components and complete vehicle holdings increased, while charging pile holdings decreased [28] - New technology holdings increased by 0.89 percentage points to 1.68%, with sodium batteries and composite current collectors both rising [29] New Energy - The photovoltaic sector's holdings decreased to 3.33%, down 0.80 percentage points [32] - In the photovoltaic sector, silicon materials and components saw declines, while silicon wafers and batteries increased [35] - The wind power sector's holdings decreased to 2.84%, down 0.27 percentage points, with the turbine assembly segment declining while the tower and sea pile segment increased [36] - The nuclear power sector's holdings decreased to 0.64%, down 0.07 percentage points [38] Industrial Control & Electric Power Equipment - The industrial control and electric power electronics sector's holdings increased to 5.69%, while the electric power equipment sector's holdings decreased to 1.95% [4] Energy Storage - The energy storage sector's overall holdings decreased to 7.80%, with a decline in storage batteries and PCS, while temperature control and fire protection segments increased [5]

证券分析师 朱洁羽 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·种植业 康农种业（837403） 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评：新玉米品种助 力开拓黄淮海市场，25 年有望持续稳健增长 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 288.24 | 336.66 | 403.00 | 462.91 | 531.75 | | 同比（%） | 45.85 | 16.80 | 19.71 | 14.87 | 14.87 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 53.22 | 82.60 | 90.87 | 103.26 | 117.19 | | 同比（%） | 28.73 | 55.21 | 10.01 | 13.64 | 13.49 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.75 | 1.16 | 1.28 | 1.45 | 1.65 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 42.05 | 27.09 | 24.63 | 21. ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·电力设备 电力设备行业深度报告 光伏板块 2025Q1 持仓占总市值比重环比下降至 3.33%，环比-0.80pct ， 2024Q1-2025Q1 持仓比例分别 4.45%、3.88%、4.15%、4.13%、3.33%。硅片、 电池上升，硅料、组件、逆变器持仓下降。1）硅料环节下降 0.68pct；2）硅片 环节上升 0.97pct；3）电池上升 1.27pct；4）一体化组件下降 1.10pct；5）逆变 器环节下降 1.70pct；6）辅材环节：胶膜、玻璃、支架、EPC、设备、金刚线、 银浆、石英坩埚均下降。 风电板块 2025Q1 持仓占总市值比重环比下降至 2.84%（-0.27pct），2024Q1- 2025Q1 分别 2.67%、3.53%、3.79%、3.11%、2.84%。1）整机环节下降 0.77pct； 2）塔筒&海桩环节上升 1.77pct；3）海缆环节下降 0.78pct；4）铸锻件、结构 件环节下降 0.61pct;5）轴承、滚子环比上升 0.24pct；6）叶片及材料环节上升 0.02pct。 核电板块 2025Q1 持仓占总市值比重环比下降至 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its R&D efforts to meet the domestic demand wave and is expected to make progress in high-end products [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be a loss of 68.27 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase in loss compared to the previous year [7] - The report highlights the continuous improvement in gross margin due to the ramp-up of high-end products and cost optimization [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 1.037 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 1.082 billion yuan in 2024A, and further growth to 1.353 billion yuan in 2025E [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 68.27 million yuan in 2024A to a profit of 102.34 million yuan by 2027E [1][8] - The gross margin is expected to increase from 40.11% in 2024A to 41.97% in 2027E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [8] R&D and Product Development - The company has increased its R&D investment to 430 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, with the R&D expense ratio reaching 39.6% [7] - The company is focusing on high-end flagship chip products for large-scale data centers and cloud services, with initial small-batch deliveries already achieved [7] - The company aims to leverage the current trend of domestic production and network interconnectivity to enhance its product offerings and maintain competitive advantages [7]

[Table_Tag] 宏观策略 证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-05-09 宏观点评 20250508：关税迷雾深，联储降息更难择机——2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 核心观点：5 月 FOMC 上美联储如期维持利率水平不变。发布会中 Powell 表达了对经济前景更大不确定性与滞胀风险的担忧，同时 Powell 也表示 关税带来的滞胀风险让美联储在就业与通胀目标中的抉择将更具挑战 性，这意味着美联储择机降息难度将更大，对待货币政策也将采取更加谨 慎的的态度，因此当前市场计价的全年 3 次降息预期面临进一步向下修 正的风险。 风险提示：特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维 持高利率水平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预 期。 [宏观深度报告 Table_MacroStrategy] 20250508：基于 38 个国家的比较：为何我国消费率偏低 我国居民可支配收入比重高于国际平均、消费倾向低于国际平均，是否说 明我国居民部门"有钱不愿花"？并非如此，由于个税和财产税主要影响 少数中高收入者，因此剔除中高收入者后，对大多数居民而言，我国跟其 他国家 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·半导体 盛科通信-U（688702） 执业证书：S0600123070070 libw@dwzq.com.cn 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评：加大研发迎 接国产浪潮，期待高端产品进展 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,037 | 1,082 | 1,353 | 1,787 | 2,291 | | 同比（%） | 35.17 | 4.28 | 25.04 | 32.10 | 28.23 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (19.53) | (68.27) | (27.54) | 7.47 | 102.34 | | 同比（%） | 33.62 | (249.52) | 59.66 | 127.12 | 1,270.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.05) | (0.17) | (0.07) | 0.02 | 0.25 | | P/S（现价&最新 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250508 基于 38 个国家的比较：为何我国消费率偏低 2025 年 05 月 08 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 我们将居民消费率拆解为两类 6 个因素，并跟 38 个国家进行国际比较， 通过比较我们发现我国居民消费率低的原因主要是消费倾向低，居民可 支配收入比重并不低，但这可能并不意味着居民部门"有钱不愿花"， 提高中低收入者收入仍然是促消费的重要选择。 ◼ 我们的主要结论如下： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《关税迷雾深，联储降息更难择机— —2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评》 2025-05-08 《转口贸易能否支撑二季度出口增长 ——兼论后续关注出口变化的几条线 索》 2025-05-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 1、中国居民消费率仅为 37.2%，比 38 个国家的平均水平（53.8%） ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 AI+汽车智能化系列之十一—— 2 ◼ 看好头部第三方智驾供应商突破机遇：智驾平权需求+性能追赶/量产验证共同驱动。 ➢ 第三方智驾供应商或成为二三线车企智驾平权最优方案：展望终局，我们认为头部车企与头 部智驾供应商都有望依托智能驾驶领域的积累拓展至具身智能大赛道，头部智驾供应商或成 为二三线车企智驾平权最优方案，预计头部智驾供应商的潜在市场份额为全部新车销量的 50%左右。 ➢ 理解本轮智能化对国产芯片端影响：智驾平权是主线，系统降本是暗线。车企竞争加剧/智 驾方案内卷的大背景下【全栈自研】成为车企当下考虑的次要因素，我们认为城市级别NOA 的智驾平权正在加速到来。车企对于功能上车的思路永远兼顾性能和成本，目前看即将落地 的基于国产芯片的智驾方案或为当下高阶智驾方案的成本最优解。 ◼ 如何衡量国产芯片的比较优势？ ➢ 英伟达凭借Orin系列智驾芯片在当下高阶智驾市场独领鳌头，据我们观察国产芯片供应商经 过近五年的追赶在产品性能、量产验证、客户获取多个维度开始比肩英伟达 ◼ 如何看待第三方芯片供应商的核心价值？ ➢ 先发的重要性：智驾芯片普遍需要三年以上研发制造周期，同时 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Insights - The concentration of public fund holdings in the construction and building materials sector has increased, with 27% of the 341 A-shares in the residential industry chain being heavily held by public funds, up from the previous quarter [2] - The total market value of the top five heavily held stocks in the residential industry chain includes Poly Development (3.98 billion), Anhui Conch Cement (2.61 billion), China State Construction (2.52 billion), Honglu Steel Structure (2.44 billion), and Sankeshu (2.31 billion) [3] - The report highlights a slight increase in the allocation of public funds to the building materials sector, with the market value of heavily held stocks in the residential industry chain accounting for 2.03% of the total A-share market, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Holding Analysis - The market value of heavily held stocks in the residential industry chain remains low, with the building materials sector seeing a slight increase in allocation [14] - The concentration of holdings in the real estate, construction, and building materials sectors has slightly risen, with respective heavy holdings of 29%, 25%, and 27% [2][14] 2. Individual Stock Holdings - The top five stocks by market value in the residential industry chain are Poly Development (3.98 billion), Anhui Conch Cement (2.61 billion), China State Construction (2.52 billion), Honglu Steel Structure (2.44 billion), and Sankeshu (2.31 billion) [3] - The report notes significant changes in individual stock holdings, with the largest increases in holdings for Binjiang Group (+1.88 percentage points) and Sankeshu (+1.09 percentage points) [7]