Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry, indicating that the industry has reached a turning point with a potential reversal in profitability [4] Core Views - The LFP industry is at a critical inflection point, with high-end product iterations strengthening the competitive advantages of leading companies [3] - Domestic electrification and overseas energy storage demand have exceeded expectations, leading to a significant recovery in LFP capacity utilization [3] - The processing fees for LFP have limited room for further decline, and profitability is expected to rebound in the near future [4] High-End Product Trends - High-end LFP products with higher compaction density are becoming the industry trend, with leading companies like Hunan Yuneng achieving a compaction density of 2.652 g/cm³, which improves performance significantly [23] - The market share of high-end LFP products is expected to increase from 30% to 40-60% by next year, with higher processing fees and improved profitability [3][23] - Leading companies are adopting advanced secondary sintering processes, which provide a competitive edge in producing high-density LFP products [26] Demand Dynamics - Domestic LFP demand is driven by the penetration of LFP batteries into high-end vehicle models, with LFP battery costs being 10-20% lower than ternary batteries [10] - The energy storage market is growing rapidly, with LFP battery demand expected to increase by over 40% in 2024, driven by both domestic and international markets [38] - Overseas automakers are beginning to adopt LFP batteries for entry-level models, with major players like Volkswagen, Stellantis, and BMW planning to introduce LFP-based vehicles by 2025-2026 [40] Supply and Capacity Utilization - The LFP industry's capacity utilization rate has significantly recovered, reaching over 60% in September, with leading companies like Hunan Yuneng operating at full capacity [3] - The industry's capacity expansion has slowed down due to financing difficulties and low profitability, with new capacity additions expected to be limited in 2024 [50] - By 2025, the industry's capacity utilization rate is expected to exceed 60%, with peak utilization rates reaching 70% during high-demand periods [54] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like Hunan Yuneng are gaining market share, with their share increasing to 33% in the first nine months of 2024, while smaller players are struggling to maintain production levels [61] - The pricing of LFP products is based on cost-plus models, with processing fees currently at historical lows, putting pressure on profitability for second-tier manufacturers [64] - Leading companies have significant cost advantages due to economies of scale and efficient cost management, with Hunan Yuneng maintaining profitability while others face losses [72] Profitability Outlook - The profitability of LFP manufacturers is expected to improve, with leading companies like Hunan Yuneng projected to achieve a net profit of 0.2-0.3 million RMB per ton by 2024 [4] - High-end products with higher compaction density offer a premium of 1-3k RMB per ton, contributing to improved profitability for leading companies [30] - The industry is expected to reach a profitability inflection point by late 2024 or early 2025, driven by improved capacity utilization and potential price increases [77] Leading Company Analysis: Hunan Yuneng - Hunan Yuneng is expected to achieve a production capacity of 70+ million tons in 2024, with a 40% year-on-year growth in shipments [80] - The company's high-end products, such as the CN-5 and YN-9 series, account for 30% of total sales, with this proportion expected to increase to 40-60% by 2025 [83] - Hunan Yuneng's integration of phosphorus resources and recycling is expected to further enhance profitability, with phosphorus mining contributing an additional 200 RMB per ton of LFP by 2025 [90] Investment Recommendation - Hunan Yuneng is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.2 billion RMB in 2025, driven by increased shipments of high-end products and improved profitability [94] - The company is recommended as a top pick, with a target price of 67 RMB and a "Buy" rating [94]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·元件 鹏鼎控股（002938） AI 浪潮下，FPC 有望迈入新的增长周期 2024 年 11 月 29 日 买入（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|---------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36211 | 32066 | 35959 | 41132 | 44699 | | 同比（ % ） | 8.69 | (11.45) | 12.14 | 14.39 | 8.67 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5012 | 3287 | 3546 | 4108 | 4730 | | 同比（ % ） | 51.07 | (34.41) | 7.88 | 15.85 | 15.13 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 2.16 | 1.42 | 1.53 | 1.77 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - Overweight (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Huawei HiSilicon is a leading IC design company globally, with comprehensive technology coverage in AI, cloud computing, smartphone SoCs, and 5G [1] - China's semiconductor market is the largest globally, with a 27% share in 2023, and is expected to grow to $1,467.9 billion by 2032, driven by AI and new energy vehicle demand [1] - HiSilicon's platform-based sales model and standardized technology enable customized solutions for large clients, fostering growth in AI and cloud computing [1] - HiSilicon has achieved breakthroughs in chip manufacturing processes, with its Kirin series chips ranking third globally in Q2 2020, capturing 16% market share [1] Huawei HiSilicon: Domestic Leader with Global Competitiveness - HiSilicon is a global leader in semiconductor and device design, covering multiple fields such as AI, cloud computing, and 5G [17] - HiSilicon's revenue is expected to grow further due to increasing domestic substitution demand, with its Kirin chips returning to the global top five [17] - HiSilicon has a strong historical performance, ranking fifth globally in 2018 with a 34.2% YoY revenue growth [20] - Huawei's 2023 revenue reached 704.2 billion yuan, a 9.6% YoY increase, with HiSilicon playing a crucial role in Huawei's domestic substitution strategy [21] China's Semiconductor Market: Largest and Fastest Growing - China's semiconductor market was $1,553 billion in 2023, accounting for 27.1% of the global market [26] - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 20% in 2024, driven by strong demand in China [26] - China's consumer electronics market was $7,734 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 7.63% from 2024 to 2032 [29] - The new energy vehicle electronics market in China reached 228.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a penetration rate exceeding 30% [30] Platform-Based Sales Model: Customization and Ecosystem Expansion - HiSilicon's platform-based sales model provides customized solutions for large clients, particularly in AI and cloud computing [34] - The "5+2" smart terminal solution launched in 2024 showcases HiSilicon's strength in audio-visual, connectivity, and IoT technologies [34] - Distributors play a key role in covering small and medium-sized enterprises, ensuring widespread application of HiSilicon's products [39] - HiSilicon's modular approach reduces development costs and enhances partners' innovation capabilities [43] Breakthroughs in Chip Manufacturing and Domestic Substitution - HiSilicon has established a comprehensive chip product system, including AI chips (Ascend), cloud processors (Kunpeng), and 5G chips (Balong) [47] - The Kirin chip series, initially licensed from Cambricon, has achieved significant market share, ranking third globally in Q2 2020 with 16% market share [47] - Huawei's Mate60 series, launched in 2023, marked a breakthrough in domestic substitution, with most components being locally sourced [49] - Huawei's PanGu large model leads in domestic AI capabilities, with its NLP model ranking first in the CLUE benchmark in 2019 [51] Related Investment Opportunities - Testing services: Companies like Oriental Zhongke and Suzhou Test ensure product quality and reliability [56] - Application cooperation: Partners such as Century Dingli and Runhe Software expand HiSilicon's market reach [57] - Distributors: Shenzhen Huaqiang and Lierda Information help HiSilicon penetrate the SME market [58] - Semiconductor: Companies like SiRuipu and VeriSilicon are key players in Huawei's R&D and investment routes [59]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·计算机设备 道通科技（688208） 布局机器人及 AI 领域，再添新成长曲线 2024 年 11 月 29 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2266 | 3251 | 4084 | 5354 | 6889 | | 同比（ % ） | 0.53 | 43.50 | 25.62 | 31.09 | 28.67 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 102.03 | 179.23 | 616.28 | 721.99 | 921.12 | | 同比（ % ） | (76.74) | 75.66 | 243.84 | 17.15 | 27.58 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.23 | 0.40 | 1. ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·电子 电子行业深度报告 国产替代趋势下，海思"平台化"发展有望 加速芯片国产化进程。 2024 年 11 月 29 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 华为海思是国内龙头、全球领先的 IC 设计公司：华为海思作为全球领 先的半导体与器件设计公司，具备全面技术布局，覆盖 AI、云计算、手 机 SoC、5G 等多领域。凭借其在手机终端、移动通信、数据中心、人工 智能等方面的深厚积累，海思为华为提供高品质芯片，海思在全球 IC 市 场实力雄厚，过去多年出货量与三星、苹果竞争，并曾登顶全球智能手 机出货量第一。中国是半导体销售最大需求市场，随着国产替代需求的 提升，海思在国产化进程中的重要性持续增强，未来发展值得期待。 ◼ 国产替代需求旺盛，海思有望高速发展：中国拥有全球最大的半导体市 场规模，2023 年占比 27%。同时是全球最大的消费电子市场，2023 年 市场规模达 7,734 亿美元。预计到 2032 年将增至 14,679 亿美元，年均 增长率 7.6%。人工智能技术推动全球半导体行业复苏，中国市场需求旺 盛。与此同时，中国新 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·光学光电子 宇瞳光学（300790） 安防镜头龙头主业复苏，布局车载蓄力业绩 高增 2024 年 11 月 29 日 买入（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|--------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1846 | 2145 | 2686 | 3268 | 3917 | | 同比（ % ） | (10.46) | 16.19 | 25.21 | 21.67 | 19.88 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 144.16 | 30.86 | 184.69 | 264.66 | 336.86 | | 同比（ % ） | (40.59) | (78.60) | 498.58 | 43.30 | 27.28 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.40 | 0. ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - 2024Q3 revenue met market expectations, while adjusted net profit fell short of expectations [2] - Advertising business remains under pressure, but generative AI continues to transform the ecosystem [3] - Non-advertising business: Generative AI drives growth in cloud computing [4] - Increased customer acquisition and cloud-related costs were partially offset by expense control [5] Financial Performance - 2024Q3 revenue was RMB 33.6 billion, down 3% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit was RMB 7 billion, down 8% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 5.9 billion, down 19% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus [2] - Share repurchase amount since 2024Q3 was USD 161 million, with cumulative repurchase under the 2023 plan reaching approximately USD 1.4 billion [2] Advertising Business - 2024Q3 Baidu Core revenue was RMB 26.5 billion, flat YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus [3] - Online marketing revenue was RMB 18.8 billion, down 4% YoY [3] - Over 20% of search results now include generative AI content, up from 18% in Q2 [3] - Advertising business is expected to remain weak in Q4, but generative AI is expected to have a positive impact in the medium to long term [3] Non-Advertising Business - Cloud revenue grew 11% YoY in 2024Q3, driven by generative AI [4] - Daily API calls for the Wenxin series models reached 1.5 billion in November 2024, up from 600 million in August [4] - AI accounted for 11% of cloud revenue in 2024Q3, up from 4.8% in 23Q4 [4] - Autonomous driving service "Luobo Kuaipao" provided 988,000 orders in Q3, up 20% YoY [4] - Fully autonomous orders accounted for over 70% of total orders nationwide, increasing to 80% in October 2024 [4] Cost and Expense Management - Baidu Core non-GAAP gross margin was 59.1% in 2024Q3, down 1.4 percentage points YoY [5] - Baidu Core non-GAAP sales and administrative expenses were RMB 4.7 billion, accounting for 17.8% of Baidu Core revenue, up 0.8 percentage points YoY [5] - Baidu Core non-GAAP R&D expenses were RMB 4.3 billion, accounting for 16.4% of Baidu Core revenue, down 2.1 percentage points YoY [5] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue is forecasted at RMB 132.4 billion, down 1.67% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted at RMB 24.4 billion, up 20.17% YoY [1] - 2024E Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted at RMB 27.1 billion, down 5.78% YoY [1] - 2024E EPS is forecasted at RMB 8.70, with a P/E ratio of 8.60 [1] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 80.45 [8] - 52-week low/high (HKD): 75.20/119.90 [8] - Price-to-book ratio: 0.87 [8] - Market capitalization (HKD million): 183,461.35 [8] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E Non-GAAP EPS (RMB): 8.70 [18] - 2024E ROE: 9.13% [18] - 2024E gross margin: 50.16% [18] - 2024E net profit margin: 18.45% [18] - 2024E debt-to-asset ratio: 31.84% [18]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-11-29 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20241128：增长缓而稳，降息近尾声——2025 年度展望 （五）：海外宏观 2025 年美国经济将进入软着陆的下半场。特朗普 2.0 时代，美国经济面 临三大未知：外政给经济的滞胀影响，内政给经济的过热影响，以及政策 的节奏、效果与预期差。我们预期 2025 年美国经济维持 2%附近的稳定 增长，但通胀到明年底或难及分析师一致预期的 2.2%，这将导致分析师 预期的 125bps 的降息更难实现。我们预期 25H1 美联储或落地 50-75bps 降息，25H2 经济韧性和通胀黏性凸显，美联储或停止降息，预计 2025 年 降息周期的阶段性终点在 4%附近。 2024 回顾：需求有序降温、供给缓 慢修复的软着陆周期。相较于传统的经济周期框架（仅由总需求驱动的经 济周期，如美银美林时钟），本轮美国经济周期最典型的特征是总供给与 总需求同时、快速的变化，2021-22 年供需关系进一步失衡导致美国产出 缺口迅速走扩至+6.9%。2023 年以来， ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·工程机械 山推股份（000680） 大马力推土机龙头，向全品类&国际化迈进 2024 年 11 月 28 日 买入（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|--------|----------|----------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 9998 | 10541 | 13642 | 15897 | 17981 | | 同比（ % ） | 9.02 | 5.43 | 29.42 | 16.53 | 13.10 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 631.74 | 765.42 | 1,059.77 | 1,386.49 | 1,537.06 | | 同比（ % ） | 288.55 | 21.16 | 38.46 | 30.83 | 10.86 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.42 | ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·酒店餐饮 同庆楼（605108） 老字号宴会餐饮龙头，多业态扩张快速成长 2024 年 11 月 28 日 增持（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|---------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1670 | 2401 | 2603 | 3436 | 4108 | | 同比（ % ） | 3.86 | 43.76 | 8.40 | 32.00 | 19.54 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 93.60 | 304.11 | 146.46 | 315.78 | 428.79 | | 同比（ % ） | (35.03) | 224.91 | (51.84) | 115.61 | 35.79 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.36 | 1.17 | 0.5 ...