2025 年 08 月 11 日 证券分析师 苏铖 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·食品饮料 燕京啤酒（000729） 2025 年中报业绩点评：U8 势能延续，扣非 业绩超预期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 14,213 | 14,667 | 15,436 | 16,230 | 17,010 | | 同比（%） | 7.66 | 3.20 | 5.24 | 5.15 | 4.80 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 644.71 | 1,055.68 | 1,602.53 | 1,925.88 | 2,274.16 | | 同比（%） | 83.02 | 63.74 | 51.80 | 20.18 | 18.08 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.23 | 0.37 | 0.57 | 0.68 | 0.81 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 57.36 | 35.03 | 23.08 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The "anti - involution" policy is compared with the supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017. Both aim to address supply - demand mismatches through capacity reduction, but there are differences in background, industries covered, policy measures, implementation cycles, and outcomes [14]. - The "anti - involution" policy is expected to have a longer implementation cycle and a more profound impact. It focuses on long - term mechanism building and is likely to achieve more sustainable and healthy results [50]. - Regarding the impact on the bond market, the "anti - involution" policy is unlikely to change the long - term bullish trend of the bond market. In the short term, there is adjustment pressure on bond interest rates due to a slight rebound in commodity prices, but a demand - driven bearish trend is unlikely. In the long run, if the policy can increase corporate profits and drive up factor prices, it may lead to an upward inflection point in bond interest rates [51][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Anti - involution" Policy Context Review - In 2024, the Central Political Bureau Meeting first proposed "preventing 'involution - style' vicious competition." On July 1, 2025, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission incorporated "anti - involution" into the national economic governance framework, accelerating policy implementation. Subsequently, various industries issued implementation opinions, such as the China Cement Association, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for the photovoltaic industry, and 33 construction central enterprises [10][11]. 3.2 "Anti - involution" and Supply - side Reform Comprehensive Comparison 3.2.1 Background Motivation - Supply - side reform in 2015 was due to the transition from high - speed to medium - high - speed economic growth, with severe over - capacity in traditional industries like coal and steel, and diminishing marginal effects of demand - side stimulus [15]. - The "anti - involution" policy since 2022 is because PPI has been in the negative range again, and over - capacity is more concentrated in emerging industries such as photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and new - energy vehicles. "Involution" is a structural and institutional over - capacity, threatening the long - term health of industries [17][21]. 3.2.2 Key Industries - The "anti - involution" policy covers a wide range of industries, including traditional industries related to real - estate and infrastructure, emerging industries, and downstream consumer - related industries. The policy focuses on the "new three items" (new energy, semiconductors, high - end equipment) [24]. - The supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017 focused on upstream raw - material industries, mainly addressing over - capacity in traditional industries led by state - owned enterprises. In contrast, the "anti - involution" policy is more extensive, emphasizing emerging industries in the middle and lower reaches, with more private enterprises involved [28]. 3.2.3 Policy Measures - The supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017 used "three removals, one reduction, and one supplement" as the main policy tools, featuring administrative means, quantified targets for key industries, supplementary measures, and demand - expansion policies such as shantytown renovation monetization [34]. - The "anti - involution" policy currently mainly uses market - based means such as industry self - discipline, with milder administrative intervention and an emphasis on institutional building. Its ultimate goal is to build a new development pattern and promote high - quality development, and it is unlikely to be accompanied by large - scale demand - expansion policies [39][40]. 3.2.4 Policy Implementation Cycle and Outcomes - The supply - side reform had a short implementation cycle of about 2 years, with significant and rapid results. It led to a substantial increase in capacity utilization, commodity prices, and industrial profits, and had a "first positive, then negative" impact on interest - rate bonds [42][43]. - The "anti - involution" policy may have a longer implementation cycle. It focuses on long - term mechanism building and is expected to achieve more sustainable and healthy results through market - based and legal means [50]. 3.3 "Anti - involution" Impact on the Bond Market Outlook - The impact of the "anti - involution" policy on interest - rate bonds is mainly transmitted through factors such as expectations, commodity prices, monetary policy, and the demand side. Currently, the demand side is weak, and monetary policy remains loose [51]. - It is predicted that the year - on - year PPI will gradually recover to around - 1.5% within the year but will not turn positive immediately. In the short term, there is adjustment pressure on bond interest rates due to a slight rebound in commodity prices, but a trend - driven bear market is unlikely. In the long run, if the policy can increase corporate profits and drive up factor prices, it may lead to an upward inflection point in bond interest rates [63].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in ABC component shipments, with a year-on-year increase of over 400% in H1 2025, leading to a positive quarterly profit [9] - The company is expected to maintain full production and sales in Q3, with a projected total shipment of 20GW for ABC components in 2025, reflecting strong market penetration [9] - The financial outlook has improved, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 showing substantial growth, indicating a recovery from previous losses [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,170 million, with a significant increase to 40,137 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [10] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 383.49 million, with a remarkable growth rate of 107.21% compared to the previous year [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to recover from a loss of 2.91 yuan in 2024 to a profit of 1.37 yuan by 2027 [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a steady revenue growth, but the increase in cost inputs has led to a year-on-year decline in performance. For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 203 million yuan, up 6.49% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 17 million yuan, down 18.57% year-on-year [2] - The revenue from rubber and plastic materials and products has increased, with a significant rise in the revenue from rubber and plastic products, which grew by 24% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on dual expansion in materials and products, with plans for capacity expansion and high-end market layout expected to bring additional growth [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 203 million yuan, a 6.49% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 17 million yuan, an 18.57% decrease year-on-year. The decline in net profit is attributed to a decrease in sales gross margin and increased costs from new product development and investment projects [2] - The sales gross margin decreased by 0.73 percentage points to 29.59%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.38 percentage points to 8.40% [2] Business Segments - Revenue from rubber and plastic materials reached 148 million yuan, a 1.28% increase year-on-year, while the revenue from rubber and plastic products was 55 million yuan, a 23.71% increase year-on-year. The gross margin for rubber and plastic products was 39.97%, down 3.74 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company has invested 120 million yuan to establish a special rubber and plastic industry technology research institute, expected to be operational by the end of 2025. The company is also expanding production capacity, with a utilization rate of over 90% for rubber materials and about 70% for rubber and plastic products [4] - The company is collaborating with the Chinese Academy of Sciences to develop high-end materials and is in the customer verification stage for PEEK materials [4] Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 39 million, 47 million, and 63 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 125.20, 105.13, and 77.93 [4]

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, indicating it is in a trend of upward oscillation with a solid bottom [1] - There is potential for increased positioning from southbound funds, with some already allocating to internet technology stocks [1][5] - The market is focused on dividends and is seeking out industries with favorable conditions, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 3.9%, S&P 500 by 2.4%, and Dow Jones by 1.3%, driven by heightened expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - As of August 10, 90% of companies in the S&P 500 had reported Q2 earnings, with a blended earnings growth rate of 11.8%, surpassing the expected 5% [3] - The technology sector, along with consumer discretionary and communication services, contributed significantly to the positive earnings surprises [3] Group 3 - The report highlights that the overall average tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 20.11%, the highest on record, yet the market is pricing in exemptions for companies that build factories in the U.S. [3] - The report notes that the S&P 500's market breadth has increased to 59%, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [6][22] - The report emphasizes that the long-term trend for the U.S. stock market remains upward, supported by stable consumer income and the ongoing impact of AI technology [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment, with a notable focus on cement and glass fiber industries as key areas for growth [3][4] - The report highlights a potential recovery in cement prices due to supply-side discipline and government support for infrastructure projects [10][12] - The demand for construction materials is anticipated to improve as consumer confidence returns and government policies stimulate domestic consumption [13] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a 1.19% increase in the past week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.23% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of government investment in infrastructure to stabilize demand in the sector [4] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals 2.1 Cement - The national average price for high-standard cement is currently 339.7 CNY/ton, unchanged from last week but down 42.5 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year [3][17] - The average cement inventory level is at 67.4%, with an average shipment rate of 44.0%, indicating a slight decline in demand [24] - The report suggests that if self-discipline measures are effectively implemented, cement prices may begin to rise in late August [10][16] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The report notes a clear trend towards upgrading electronic glass fiber products, with high-end products expected to see increased market penetration [11] - The profitability of ordinary glass fiber remains resilient, supported by growth in domestic demand from sectors like wind power and thermal plastics [11] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is expected to experience a supply-side contraction, which may improve the short-term supply-demand balance [12] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the glass sector that can leverage resource advantages and enjoy excess profits [12] 3. Renovation and Building Materials - The report highlights the potential for increased domestic demand for renovation materials due to government policies aimed at stimulating consumption [13] - It suggests that leading companies in the renovation materials sector are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with many currently trading at low valuations [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The one - time impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the bond market has ended, raising the oscillation center of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield from 1.65% to 1.7%, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The bond yield is driven by upward and downward forces, and will remain relatively balanced and return to a narrow - range oscillation state. The increase in social financing and social retail growth rates due to the "anti - involution" policy has limited impact on the bond market this year, but risks in the fundamental verification period next year need to be guarded against. It is recommended to appropriately reduce leverage and duration [1][16]. - Overseas, the U.S. bond market continues the previous week's trend, with the short - end rising less than the long - end. The global is facing challenges of regional supply - demand imbalance during the "re - globalization" process. The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and there is a high probability of interest rate cuts in the near future, with the second half of the year being a key period for policy adjustment [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Domestic Bond Market - From August 4 - 8, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.4bp from 1.695% to 1.691%. The yield was affected by various factors such as tax policies, stock - bond seesaw effects, news events, and import - export data throughout the week [1][11]. 3.1.2 U.S. Bond Market - From August 4 - 8, 2025, overseas continued the previous week's trend, with U.S. bonds falling and U.S. stocks flat. The short - end of U.S. bonds rose less than the long - end. The U.S. jobless claims, manufacturing new orders, and service PMI data showed a weakening economic situation, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased [2][4]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - The net investment in the open market from August 4 - 8, 2025, was - 5365 billion yuan. The money market interest rates showed a certain degree of decline [30]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Domestic: The total transaction area of commercial housing increased overall. Steel prices fluctuated, and LME non - ferrous metal futures prices rose. - Overseas: U.S. jobless claims increased, manufacturing new orders declined, and service PMI decreased. The yield of U.S. bonds changed, with the short - end rising and the long - end falling [51][58][2]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - From August 4 - 8, 2025, 32 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 165.459 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 82.611 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 82.848 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of issuance amount were Hunan, Tianjin, and Hebei [82][85]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - As of this week, the local bond stock was 52.61 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 302.322 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.57%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Yunnan, and the top three trading - active maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [100]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - The issuance plan of local bonds in the future shows the planned issuance amounts of different provinces on different dates [106]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 441 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 370.193 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 172.857 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 197.336 billion yuan, an increase of 13.19 billion yuan compared to last week [107]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week showed different degrees of change, with short - term financing bills increasing by 41.49bp, medium - term notes increasing by 3.60bp, and corporate bonds increasing by 4.39bp [117]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 242.326 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and ratings [120]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of various bond types such as government - owned development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different degrees of decline this week [120][121][124]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds all narrowed this week [132][134][139]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes generally narrowed, those of corporate bonds generally widened, and those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [142][145][149]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds of each bond type this week are presented in a table [153].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, suggesting an increase in investment weight towards automotive dividend style configurations for the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a recovery, with a 5.0% week-on-week increase in compulsory insurance for passenger vehicles, totaling 462,000 units in the last week of July [2][50]. - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the launch of new models from major players like Xiaopeng and Li Auto, which are expected to enhance market competitiveness [2][3]. - The report anticipates a structural market opportunity as the industry transitions towards electric and intelligent vehicles, with a recommendation to focus on companies leading in AI and robotics innovation [3][54]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector ranked 6th in A-shares and 21st in Hong Kong stocks for the week, with motorcycles showing the best performance [7][15]. - The report notes that the SW motorcycle and other segments increased by 9.6%, while the SW passenger vehicle segment decreased by 0.7% [2][16]. Industry Changes - Key changes include the unveiling of Xiaopeng's new P7 model and pricing adjustments for Li Auto's i8, which aims to enhance customer appeal [2][3]. - The report discusses the introduction of new policies to support vehicle scrappage and replacement, which are expected to boost domestic consumption [51][59]. Sales and Forecasts - The report projects a total of 23.69 million passenger vehicles to be sold in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [51][52]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 60.6% by 2025, with significant growth in both domestic and export markets [52][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing allocations in sectors benefiting from the automotive dividend, including buses, heavy trucks, and two-wheelers, while also focusing on AI and robotics components [3][54]. - Specific stocks recommended include Spring Power, Yutong Bus, and major players in the electric vehicle market such as Xiaopeng and Li Auto [3][64].

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment over a century, highlighting lessons for supply-demand rebalancing, including the long-term depression in the late 19th century in Europe and the US, the 1929 Great Depression, and Japan's capacity reduction in the 1970s and 1990s [1][6]. - Key conclusions include that capacity imbalance can lead to a negative feedback loop lasting 20-30 years if not controlled, and government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing such imbalances [1][6]. - Successful rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies [1][6]. Fixed Income - The new bond value-added tax (VAT) regulation, effective from August 8, 2025, reinstates VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, while maintaining tax exemption for bonds issued before this date [2][7]. - The adjustment is expected to enhance the relative value of credit bonds, as their interest income is not subject to VAT, making them more attractive compared to government bonds and financial bonds [2][7]. - The report estimates that the yield spread between credit bonds and other interest rate bonds will narrow by approximately 10 basis points, with potential relative value increases of 5-15 basis points for proprietary trading departments and 3-10 basis points for asset management products and public funds [2][7]. Industry Analysis Hewei Electric (603063) - The company reported a revenue of 1.884 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.39%, with a net profit of 243 million yuan, up 56.79% [4][10]. - The growth is driven by the new energy control business, which generated 1.524 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 44.97% increase year-on-year [4][10]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits of 590 million, 710 million, and 820 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 31, 25, and 22 times [4][10]. Tonghui Electronics (833509) - The company achieved a revenue of 101 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 16.81% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 29 million yuan, up 55.40% [5][12]. - The growth is attributed to the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy and the gradual recovery of domestic industrial demand, particularly in the consumer electronics and new energy sectors [5][12]. - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 71 million, 87 million, and 106 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's long-term growth potential [5][12].

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 1.70 trillion CNY, a decrease of over 110 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The market style returned to a "small-cap + dividend" barbell structure, with the Wande Micro Cap Index rising by 3.76% this week[11] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.11% during the week, while the Wande All A Index rose by 1.94%[11] - The small-cap stocks showed relative strength, with the small-cap growth index up by 2.59%[14] Investor Sentiment - The margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion CNY, reaching a ten-year high, indicating increased investor confidence[22] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 73, while the number hitting the limit down was only 2, reflecting a positive market sentiment[22] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included robotics, military, and infrastructure, with significant events such as the opening of the World Robot Conference and a 95 billion CNY investment by the National Railway Group in a new railway company[38] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and technological self-reliance in the current market environment[42] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions that could impact market stability[45]