证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250508 关税迷雾深，联储降息更难择机——2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 ◼ 策略启示：市场降息预期过于乐观，美债利率存在进一步上行的风险。 FOMC 声明公布后，市场反应较为平淡；而发布会结束后，美元指数上 涨，降息预期有所回落。截至最新联邦基金期货显示市场预期美联储 7 月降息概率为 82%，全年降息 3.12 次/78bps。对美联储而言，当下货币 政策决策难点既在方向上（滞胀风险让美联储陷入两难，"降也不是， 不降也不是"），也在置信区间上（关税政策与其影响均充满不确定性， 加大对经济前景判断难度）。向前看，除非短期爆发尖锐的流动性或衰 退风险，否则当下通胀更大的上行风险与经济更大的不确定性均意味着 美联储更谨慎的货币政策，目前市场定价的全年 3 次降息仍过于乐观， 美债利率存在上行风险。 ◼ 风险提示：特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维持高利率水 平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预期。 2025 年 05 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 大众品 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报总结：需 求筑底，细分突围 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 周韵 执业证书：S0600524080009 zhouyun@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 邓洁 执业证书：S0600525030001 dengj@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 于思淼 执业证书：S0600123070030 yusm@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2024/5/7 2024/9/5 2025/1/4 2025/5/5 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 《食品综合 2024 年报及 2025 年一季 报总结：零食继续领跑，餐饮链有望 企稳》 2025-05-05 《2025Q1 基金食品饮料持仓分析：持 仓趋稳，白酒回升》 2025-04-23 内容目 ...

证券研究报告 通用自动化2024年报&2025年一季报总结 通用设备需求筑底静待复苏，挖掘机器人&FA自动化等α机会 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：钱尧天 执业证书编号：S0600524120015 qianyt@dwzq.com.cn 2025 年 5 月 7 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 核心要点 ◆工业自动化：2025Q1需求/业绩有所改善，推荐业绩拐点已至的工业FA板块。 我们选取10家工业自动化标的，包括【埃斯顿】【汇川技术】（东吴电新组覆盖）【埃夫特】【新时达】【拓斯达】【机器人】【怡合达】【绿 的谐波】【国茂股份】【中大力德】进行分析。2024年合计实现营收592.48亿元，同比+6%，中位数收入同比增速分别为-3%/-10%。 2024年工业自 动化行业合计归母净利润为34.18亿元，同比-40%，中位数归母净利润同比增速分别为-33%和-26% 。整体来看，工业自动化行业利润增速正逐步下 滑，一方面受收入端增速放缓影响，另一方面价格竞争情况仍未有明显改善。重点推荐工业自动化细分板块：工业F ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading crankshaft manufacturer, with new growth avenues opened through its ventures into the new energy and robotics sectors [8]. - The demand for crankshafts is expected to rise due to the increasing popularity of hybrid vehicles, which still require crankshafts despite the rise of pure electric vehicles [8]. - The company has made significant investments in new energy gear technology and robotics, which are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Founded in 1995, the company has established itself as a leader in crankshaft manufacturing, with a product range that includes clutches, precision forgings, gears, and bolts [8][13]. - The company has entered the new energy sector with electric drive gears and is developing robotic reducer products, indicating a strategic shift towards diversification [8][13]. 2. Crankshaft Business Growth - The company has shifted its focus from commercial vehicles to passenger vehicles, capturing significant market share with clients like BYD and Li Auto [8][13]. - The crankshaft production line is expected to reach a capacity of 1 million hybrid crankshafts by May 2025, enhancing the company's performance in this segment [8][13]. 3. New Energy Gear Expansion - The company has invested 408 million yuan in developing new energy electric drive precision gear business, with production expected to start in July 2024 [8][13]. - The company has secured multiple projects with major clients such as BYD and Geely, indicating strong demand for its new energy gear products [8][13]. 4. Robotics Sector Entry - The company has entered the robotics market by acquiring a 35% stake in Changban Robot Technology, leveraging its existing client base and technical expertise [8][13]. - The synergy between its traditional automotive components and new robotics products is expected to provide a competitive advantage [8][13]. 5. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 24.34 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 3.01 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth potential [8][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.47 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan by 2027, indicating a positive outlook for investors [8][13].

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·汽车零部件 福达股份（603166） 曲轴龙头，新能源+机器人打开全新增长曲线 2025 年 05 月 07 日 买入（首次） 证券分析师 黄细里 执业证书：S0600520010001 021-60199793 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭雨蒙 执业证书：S0600525030002 guoym@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -27% -3% 21% 45% 69% 93% 117% 141% 165% 189% 2024/5/7 2024/9/5 2025/1/4 2025/5/5 福达股份 沪深300 市场数据 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,352 | 1,648 | 2,434 | 3,019 | 3,394 | | 同比（%） | 19.18 | 21.83 | 47.75 | 24.04 | 12.41 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | ...

证券研究报告·行业月报·非银金融 东吴金融 财富管理月报（2025/04） 基金日均成交额及换手率同环比双升，新发 基金规模持续下降 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 武欣姝 执业证书：S0600524060001 wuxs@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 非银金融 沪深300 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 49% 2024/5/7 2024/9/5 2025/1/4 2025/5/5 东吴证券研究所 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 2025 年 4 月，基金指数净值整体波动上升。各类型基金收益高于股票 指数型，其中债券型基金指数小幅上升。 ◼ 2025 年 4 月，股票型 ETF 基金资金净流入 1,976 亿元，现存总规模 23,416 亿元。股票型 ETF 主要按照宽基 ETF、行业与主题 ETF、风格 ETF 分类分析。宽基 ETF 方面，净流入 1,908 ...

光伏主链盈利承压、减值改善，辅材业绩承压持续分化 --新能源行业24年及25Q1报告总结 ◆ 24年光伏板块收入同减21%，归母净利润同减118%；25Q1收入同减17%，归母净利润同减155%。光伏板块 2024年收入10143亿元，同比减少21%，归母净利润-208亿元，同比下降118%。24Q4光伏板块收入2552亿 元，同减22%，环增1%，归母净利润-252亿元，同减1046%，环减8091%。25Q1光伏板块收入1952亿元， 同减17%，环减24%，归母净利润-35亿元，同减155%，环增86%。 ◆ 25Q1主链减值减少环比改善，辅材业绩持续承压。25Q1归母净利润环比增速看：EPC(476%)>设备(284%)> 胶膜(278%)>支架(132%)>石英坩埚(117%)>其他辅材(96%)>玻璃(93%)>金刚线(88%)>电池(85%)>银浆 (66%)>硅片(58%)>组件(54%)>硅料(34%)>逆变器(8%)；归母净利同比增速看，逆变器(74%)>硅片(11%)> 支架(-18%)>EPC(-20%)>设备(-32%)>胶膜(-37%)>银浆(-38%)>石英坩埚(-73%)>玻璃 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the education and training industry, highlighting potential opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The education and training industry is positioned as a long-term growth track, with a significant imbalance between supply and demand, creating investment opportunities [8][12]. - The industry is characterized by a trillion-yuan demand under a hundred-billion-yuan market, indicating substantial growth potential [39]. - The report emphasizes the role of AI in transforming the education sector, enhancing efficiency and quality while potentially increasing market concentration [8][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Reflection - The education and training sector is experiencing a recovery phase post "double reduction" and pandemic impacts, with a favorable policy environment fostering growth [8][12]. - Demand for education and training is rigid and increasing, particularly in high school training due to rising college entrance exam registrations [8][12]. Policy Trends - The policy direction is becoming more moderate, providing a conducive environment for growth in the education sector [14][15]. - Key policies indicate a shift towards supporting and regulating private education development, with a focus on optimizing the basic education ecosystem [14][15]. Lessons from Japan and South Korea - Historical experiences from Japan and South Korea illustrate that the education and training sector can be a long-term growth area, with increasing participation rates and spending on education [20][27]. - South Korea's experience shows a recovery in participation rates and spending on education, indicating a potential trajectory for China's education sector [26][32]. Market Size and Demand - The education and training market is estimated to be around 398.5 billion yuan for K12 education, with significant room for growth in participation rates [50][51]. - The report highlights that the average spending on education per student is increasing, with a clear upward trend in pricing for tutoring services [54]. Key Players - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Xueda Education, New Oriental, and TAL Education, which are adapting to the changing landscape by diversifying their service offerings [6][58]. - These companies are shifting focus from K9 academic training to non-academic and vocational education, reflecting a broader industry transformation [58].

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250507 2025-04-03 TPS 与 SPS 选股因子绩效月报 20250430 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《成交价改进换手率因子》 2022-08-16 《 TPS 与 SPS 选股因子绩效月报 20250331》 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ TPS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）： 2006 年 1 月至 2025 年 4 月，TPS 因子在全体 A 股中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 39.50%，年化波 动为 15.79%，信息比率为 2.50，月度胜率为 77.39%，月度最大回撤为 18.19%。 ◼ SPS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）： 2006 年 1 月至 2025 年 4 月，SPS 因子在全体 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in leading domestic brands: Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle [3]. Core Insights - The growth of the motorcycle market is driven by exports and large-displacement motorcycles, with domestic sales of fuel motorcycles expected to decline while large-displacement models see significant growth [2][19]. - The domestic motorcycle market has transitioned from a tool to a consumer product, with large-displacement motorcycles gaining popularity due to rising outdoor sports demand and motorcycle culture [2][41]. - The overseas motorcycle market presents substantial growth opportunities for Chinese brands, with a projected market size of 932 billion yuan by 2024 [2][85]. Summary by Sections Overall Review - The motorcycle industry in China has experienced three phases: popularization, decline, and differentiated growth, with the current phase characterized by structural growth driven by exports and large-displacement motorcycles [13][15]. Domestic Sales - Domestic motorcycle sales are projected to decline from 19 million units in 2023 to 5.44 million units for fuel motorcycles by 2024, while large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to grow from 110,000 to 400,000 units from 2019 to 2024, with a CAGR of 28.8% [2][19][29]. Exports - The export of motorcycles is expected to reach 11.02 million units by 2024, accounting for 67% of total sales, with a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycle exports from 65,000 to 360,000 units during the same period [22][29]. Key Players - Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle are leading the large-displacement market, with Chuanfeng's sales growing from 45,000 to 308,000 units from 2019 to 2024, achieving a CAGR of 47.1% [3][75].