保险Ⅱ 2026 年 01 月 06 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 2026-01 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究报告 《拓宽产品形态和功能，健康险有望 迎来增长新机遇—"健康险高质量发 展意见"点评》-2025.10.8 zhangenqi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125080012 储蓄和保障双重优势，保险占居民理财比重有望持续提升 （1）向后展望，分红险转型增加保险产品吸引力, 养老和健康保障需求持续释 放，大额存单供给进一步收缩，债市波动下，保险产品稳定回报率的性价比优势 继续凸显。在中长期维度，保险资产占居民存款和固收理财类资产比重有望持续 提升，带来保险新单保费和资产规模增速向好，保险行业迎来"黄金发展周期"。 （2）聚焦 2026 年，保险行业负债端看，分红险转型持续见效，个险新单有望企 稳回升，银保渠道在双向奔赴下，头部险企有望延续 2025 年较快增长态势。险 企新单保费增速有望明显扩张，利好险企 NBV 新业务价值增速改善。（3）资产 端看，长端利率中枢稳步 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is undergoing a period of accelerated transformation, with various technical paths available, including invasive, semi-invasive, and non-invasive methods, each with its own advantages in signal quality, safety, and operational difficulty [5][19] - The Chinese brain-computer interface market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size reaching approximately 1.73 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 12.5% of the global market [6] - The industry is supported by a three-pronged policy approach focusing on planning, payment, and standards, which is expected to facilitate rapid development [6][33] Summary by Sections 1. Brain-Computer Interface Overview - BCI is a multidisciplinary technology that integrates neuroscience, computer science, and engineering to enable communication between the brain and external devices [17] - The technology operates through a closed-loop system involving signal input, processing, device control, and feedback [17] 2. Policy Support for BCI Development - The Chinese government has issued several policies to support the BCI industry, including the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry" which outlines goals for 2027 and 2030 [6][43] - The policies aim to establish a robust industrial ecosystem, enhance innovation capabilities, and promote clinical applications of BCI technologies [43][44] 3. Technological Advancements and Applications - Core technological breakthroughs are occurring in the upstream segment of the BCI industry, particularly in hardware such as electrodes and chips [7] - The medical application of BCI is predominant, with 56% of the market share in 2023, focusing on various therapeutic areas including cognitive disorders and movement disabilities [7][9] - Companies like Lepu Medical and Aipeng Medical are actively involved in developing deep brain stimulation (DBS) technologies, with some preparing for IPOs [7][8] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on both invasive and non-invasive BCI products, with specific companies identified as beneficiaries based on their clinical trial progress and commercialization potential [8] - Notable companies include Aipeng Medical and Lepu Medical for invasive products, and Xiangyu Medical and Innovation Medical for non-invasive products [8]

Macro Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced the early batch of "two heavy" projects and central budget investment plans for 2026, totaling approximately 295 billion yuan, with 220 billion yuan allocated for infrastructure projects [9][10] - The government is focusing on enhancing domestic demand, increasing investment in new productive forces, and promoting employment and income growth [10][11] Industry Insights Media - The gaming sector is identified as a significant application area for brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), with potential for growth as technology matures [30] - Companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Century Huatong are actively investing in BCI-related projects, indicating a trend towards integrating gaming with advanced technologies [30][32] Defense and Aerospace - The military industry index has seen a 9.24% increase, outperforming the broader market, with current PE-TTM at 78.44 times, indicating a relatively high valuation [34] - Recent geopolitical events, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela, are expected to impact the defense sector positively [34][35] Automotive - The automotive supply chain is well-positioned for the development of humanoid robots, leveraging existing technologies and manufacturing capabilities [39] - Companies like Tesla are leading in humanoid robot development, with significant advancements expected in 2026 [40][41] - The valuation of automotive companies is shifting towards a technology-driven model, reflecting their growing focus on AI and robotics [41][42] Chemical Industry - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 96 to 110 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.6% to 72.56% [53] - The domestic potassium carbonate market is expected to see improved profitability due to a favorable supply-demand balance [54] - The company is also investing in the production of PEEK, a high-performance polymer, which could enhance its growth potential [57] Retail and Consumer Services - The retail sector is experiencing significant growth, with companies like Hema and Sam's Club expanding rapidly [50][51] - The tourism sector showed strong performance during the New Year holiday, with a notable increase in domestic travel and spending [47][48]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Connect CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses Hong Kong Stock Exchange CCASS data to track and replicate the monthly holdings of individual brokers, selecting high-performing brokers and their top holdings to construct a portfolio[4][34] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Broker Selection**: At the end of each month, all brokers are ranked based on their standardized excess Sharpe ratio and monthly win rate, and the top N brokers are selected to form a pool of high-performing brokers[34] 2. **Stock Selection**: Funds are equally allocated to the N brokers, and their latest holdings are aggregated. The top M stocks by weight are retained and equally weighted to form the portfolio[34] 3. **Parameters**: N = 10 (number of brokers), M = 20 (number of stocks)[34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown strong performance with high excess returns and Sharpe ratios, indicating its effectiveness in selecting high-performing stocks[34][36] Model Backtesting Results Hong Kong Stock Connect CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio - **December 2025 Performance**: Portfolio return of 0.91%, Hang Seng Index return of -0.88%, excess return of 1.79%[36] - **Annual Performance 2025**: Portfolio return of 49.9%, annualized excess return of 17.8%[36] - **Full Period Performance (2020.1~2025.12)**: Annualized excess return of 20.0%, excess Sharpe ratio of 2.52[36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Excess Sharpe Ratio and Monthly Win Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors are used to evaluate and rank brokers based on their risk-adjusted returns and consistency in generating positive returns[34] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Excess Sharpe Ratio**: Calculated as the ratio of excess return to excess volatility for each broker[34] 2. **Monthly Win Rate**: The proportion of months in which the broker's portfolio outperforms the benchmark[34] 3. **Standardization**: Both factors are standardized and equally weighted to form a composite score for ranking brokers[34] - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors effectively identify brokers with superior risk-adjusted performance and consistency, contributing to the overall success of the portfolio[34] Factor Backtesting Results Excess Sharpe Ratio and Monthly Win Rate - **Top Brokers Performance**: - **Phillip Securities (Hong Kong)**: Annualized excess return of 10.4%, excess Sharpe ratio of 1.73, monthly win rate of 73.61%[35] - **GF Securities**: Annualized excess return of 12.9%, excess Sharpe ratio of 1.29, monthly win rate of 79.17%[35] - **Grand Partners Securities**: Annualized excess return of 18.1%, excess Sharpe ratio of 1.65, monthly win rate of 73.61%[35] Portfolio Holdings for January 2026 - **Top Holdings**: - **Tencent Holdings (0700.HK)**: PEttm 22.9, ROEttm 4.7%, Market Cap 54630.2 billion HKD[40] - **Xiaomi Corporation (1810.HK)**: PEttm 21.2, ROEttm 5.1%, Market Cap 10236.6 billion HKD[40] - **SMIC (0981.HK)**: PEttm 118.5, ROEttm 0.9%, Market Cap 7006.8 billion HKD[40] - **Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388.HK)**: PEttm 30.0, ROEttm 7.7%, Market Cap 5167.7 billion HKD[40] - **Ping An Insurance (2318.HK)**: PEttm 7.7, ROEttm 2.9%, Market Cap 12924.9 billion HKD[40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 96 million to 110 million yuan, representing a growth of 50.60% to 72.56%. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 110 million, 167 million, and 221 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.31, 1.98, and 2.63 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 25.2, 16.6, and 12.5 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 1.035 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7%. The net profit margin is expected to improve to 10.6% in 2025, with a projected net profit of 110 million yuan, reflecting a 72.0% increase compared to the previous year [8][11] Potassium Salt Industry - The domestic potassium carbonate industry is characterized by an oligopoly with limited players and no significant expansion plans in the short term. The company, as a leading domestic producer, has an annual production capacity of 85,000 tons of light potassium carbonate. The anticipated integration of competitors facing financial difficulties may further enhance profitability in the industry as demand steadily increases [5] Veterinary Medicine Sector - The global market demand for Amprolium hydrochloride is estimated to be between 1,200 to 1,500 tons annually, with the company holding a production capacity of 600 tons per year. A planned expansion project is expected to increase capacity to 800 tons per year by June 2026. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may disrupt supply from competitors, allowing the company to benefit from increased market share [6] PEEK Project - The company plans to invest 193 million yuan to establish a production line for 2,000 tons of PEEK and key intermediates. This project aims to create a complete industrial chain from fluorobenzene to fluoroketone and PEEK, leveraging technical support from renowned universities. This investment is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities for the company [7]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is entering a phase of large-scale production, with gaming as a significant application area, expected to benefit continuously [3] - The integration of AI in gaming is enhancing multi-modal capabilities and innovative forms, potentially opening up new industry spaces [3] - The upcoming gaming season, with new game launches and updates to existing games, is anticipated to drive revenue growth [4] Summary by Sections Brain-Computer Interface Developments - BCI technology connects the human brain with external devices for information exchange, enabling previously disabled individuals to engage in gaming through "brain-controlled" interfaces [3] - The launch of China's first fully implanted, wireless BCI product by Shanghai Brain Tiger Technology marks a significant breakthrough in core technology [3] - Companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Century Huatong are actively investing in BCI-related projects, indicating a growing interest in this field [3] AI Integration in Gaming - AI is enhancing various aspects of game development, from art resource generation to core creative areas like gameplay design and narrative structure [3] - Tencent reported a 40% reduction in animation production time due to AI integration, showcasing efficiency gains [3] - The number of games utilizing generative AI on the Steam platform has increased significantly, indicating a trend towards AI-enhanced gaming experiences [3] Upcoming Gaming Season - Major game releases and updates are scheduled for January, including anniversary events and new collaborations with popular IPs [4] - The report suggests focusing on the gaming sector due to its favorable valuation and expected demand surge during the holiday season [4] - Recommended companies include Giant Network, Xindong Company, and Tencent Holdings, among others, as potential beneficiaries of this trend [4]

- The report analyzes the characteristics of broker-recommended stocks for January, highlighting that Zijin Mining, Zhongji Xuchuang, Ping An of China, CATL, Tianshan Aluminum, WuXi AppTec, and Yunnan Aluminum were frequently recommended[13][14] - The report categorizes all recommended stocks into new and repeated stocks, with Zijin Mining, Zhongji Xuchuang, Ping An of China, CATL, and China Duty Free being the most recommended repeated stocks, and Tianshan Aluminum, WuXi AppTec, Yunnan Aluminum, SMIC, and Jereh being the most recommended new stocks[13][14] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the top recommended stocks within major popular industries, such as electronics, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, and basic chemicals, with specific stocks like SMIC, Zijin Mining, CATL, Wanhua Chemical, and Hengli Hydraulic being frequently recommended[16][17] - The report notes that the market value and valuation levels of broker-recommended stocks increased in January, indicating a shift towards growth style stocks[18] - The performance review for December shows that the overall return rate of broker-recommended stock portfolios was 5.3%, with new stocks outperforming repeated stocks[21][22] - The report highlights the top ten stocks with the highest monthly returns in December, including Sunway Communication, Hengyi Petrochemical, Lixing Co., Moulding Technology, and USI, with returns of 74.8%, 44.7%, 44.3%, 40.0%, and 36.1% respectively[21][22][23] - The "Kaiyuan Financial Engineering Preferred Stock Portfolio" achieved a return rate of 5.8% in December, with a historical annualized return rate of 23.1%, outperforming the overall broker-recommended stock portfolio[24][27][28] - The report lists the latest holdings of the preferred stock portfolio for January, including stocks like CITIC Securities, Chongqing Bank, Huafeng Measurement & Control, Taotao Vehicle, New China Life Insurance, and Shanghai Lingang, with a focus on industries such as electronics, basic chemicals, building materials, and computers[28][29][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report assesses the reasonable market space for robotic lawn mowers and addresses market concerns regarding the competitive advantages of the company's products, including the impact of anti-dumping investigations on the industry and players [17] - The overall industry scale is expected to reach approximately 180,000 units in 2025, with a significant increase in penetration rates in Europe, particularly in Germany and France [23][24] - The company maintains a competitive edge due to product stability and channel presence, despite market concerns about price competition and the introduction of laser radar products by competitors [7][21] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The report evaluates the market potential for robotic lawn mowers, estimating that the industry could see shipments close to 200,000 units in 2025, with long-term potential exceeding 400,000 units annually [6][17] - The company’s products are noted for their stability, which is a key concern for consumers, and they outperform competitors in terms of consumer feedback regarding navigation and obstacle avoidance [19][21] 2. Industry Updates - The robotic lawn mower market is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in sales and penetration rates across major European markets [23][24] - The competitive landscape shows that the company has gained market share, particularly in the U.S. and European markets, where it competes effectively against major brands [25][27] 3. Market Concerns - Concerns regarding the company's lack of laser radar products are mitigated by the understanding that stability is more critical to consumers than technical specifications alone [19][21] - The anti-dumping investigation initiated by the EU is expected to raise industry entry barriers, potentially benefiting established players like the company by improving pricing power and market conditions [22][24] 4. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 21.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 53.5% [9] - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected at 1.92 billion yuan, with an EPS of 26.70 yuan, indicating a strong financial outlook [9]

宏观经济专题 2026 年 01 月 05 日 "两重""两新"提前批已下达 ——宏观经济专题 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | | 国内宏观政策："两重""两新"提前批已下达  | | 过去两周（12 月 21 日-1 月 3 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 经济增长方面，近日，发改委提出已下达 2026 年"两重"提前批项目和中央预 算内投资计划，共计约 2950 亿元。发改委表示，"两重"建设方面共安排约 2200 亿元，支持城市地下管网、高标准农田、三北工程、有效降低全社会物流成本等 领域的 281 个项目。 基建与产业方面, 近两周重点政策包括：监管部门开展规范光伏行业价格竞争秩 序合规指导，表示全行业要充分认识整治光伏行业"内卷式"竞争的重要性。光 伏企业要依法依规开展生产经营，严禁价格串通、价格欺诈等不正当价格行为， 坚决杜绝虚假宣传、商业贿赂等不正当竞争行为；国家创业投资引 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The defense and military industry index increased by 9.24% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.35%, resulting in an excess return of 7.89% [5][14] - The current PE-TTM (excluding negative values) for the military industry is 78.44 times, which is higher than the 71.89 times recorded two weeks ago, indicating a relative high valuation [5][24] - The aerospace equipment sector has shown significant growth, with a 35.80% increase over the past two weeks, while the naval equipment sector has underperformed with only a 0.79% increase [16] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The military index ranked first among 31 industries, with a year-to-date increase of 34.30%, compared to a 17.66% increase in the CSI 300 index, resulting in a relative return of 16.64% [17][19] 2. Industry News - The geopolitical landscape has intensified, with significant military activities reported, including U.S. military operations in Venezuela and joint military exercises in the Taiwan Strait [6][28] - China's aerospace activities have been robust, with multiple successful rocket launches and supportive government policies aimed at enhancing the aerospace industry [7][30] 3. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include China Satellite, which saw a 61.70% increase over the past two weeks, followed by Aerospace Development and Guanglian Aviation with increases of 48.03% and 47.55%, respectively [21][23] 4. Industry Valuation - The military industry's current PE-TTM of 78.44 times is positioned at the 75.62% percentile since early 2015, indicating a strong valuation outlook as the "14th Five-Year Plan" becomes clearer [24][26]